What Will Drive Markets? Bitcoin Dims

I felt much better after writing up the worthless media reports that pass for news in today’s Coping section.  Now we can get down to cases…

I’m  looking for the market to go down a ways from here.  It would be extremely graceful if we could have a decline this week that carries into next and then turns for a rally into Thanksgiving.

In Elliott terms, that would be a first wave down with the rally to come at the holiday.  Call that a wave 2…

(Continues below)

 

Then, since there ought to be a wave 3 down, have that come during the first part of December,

A Santa Claus rally would be expected going into Christmas and New Years, and we might think of this as having the potential to be a three-movement counter-trend rally from an ideal early December decline.

Come the New Year, there would be a decline to the movement’s low, but since everyone will be “expecting” it, there would be minimal damage to aware investors.

From – let’s call it a January or February’s low, we would rally like hell until mid May.  Everyone would be thinking by then “Gee the worst is over.”

Except, that when you pull back from the charts a ways, you’d notice that we’d have just completed a massive wave 1 down of a larger degree.

And from that Depression becomes obvious.

This is not financial advice, of course.  But, it is the kind of thing that might happen and would synch up nicely in the charts.

What’s more curious, in the short term is how Bitcoin is seemingly replaying the “After Peak” action that the stock market went through in 1930.

I don’t know how closely you follow Bitcoin, but do pay attention to the recent chart action:

As you can see, the typical price of Bitcoin has gone from $7,725 (my contacts aren’t in yet,  but somewhere in there) down to call it $5,700 over the pseudo-holiday.

In order to get a sense of where Bitcoin COULD and MIGHT go, we built up a simple spreadsheet program that does nothing more than estimate Elliott wave action and gives us trading ideas.  Peoplenomics.com subscribers will find it on the Master Index page up at the top.  Password is “peoplenomics” without the quotes.

The beauty of the brainamp.xls spreadsheet is that it lets a user put in just two numbers – either a high and a low, or a low and a high – and it tells you what MAY be ahead.

So what MIGHT be out there for Bitcoin?  I mean once the current rally ends?

Before we go down there, we’re in what could be a Wave 2 rally.  According to the spreadsheet, we should in the very short-term be on our way back to 6,951,45.

Calling a rally top in stocks – bitcoins – or any other mechanism of delusion is lots of fun.  Sure, there are analogs, too, if you know how to spot them.  Like the wave declines for people in the news.  Like Harvey and Kevin and Roy and…well, Bob Prechter has a wonderful site called www.socionomics.com that’s worth a scan frequently.

So from here, somewhere in the 6,900 and maybe 7,000-something and then down to (rounding off) something like 3,500.  From there?  Well, here’s the brainamp calculations:

This doesn’t mean Bitcoin will be at $2,000 any time soon, but seeing as manias do tend to fall at 2-3 times the speed of their initial rise, we wouldn’t rule out the POSSIBILITY of Wave III and $4,000 Bitcoins by Turkey Day.

Can  this disaster be avoided?  Oh, sure.

All Bitcoin as to do is set a fresh all -time high.  I would never rule that one out.  Wave counts “is what they is” until “they isn’t.”

Still, I’ve used the “brainamp” countless times to make – and keep a buck (or three).  Peoplenomics subscribers have fun with it, too.

Quakes Are Back

After a long period of low-level quaking, suggested by heating and cooling of the Earth’s crust, we may be back into a period of building earthquakes.

Try these on for size:

M 6.5 – 16km SE of Jaco, Costa Rica

And more importantly M 7.3 – 32km S of Halabjah, Iraq.

This latter one is of interest because it’s right on the Iran-Iraq border and near the major oil producing areas.  Will it impact?

Then there are the dead people: More Than 348 Dead, Thousands Injured In Powerful Quake.

Too early to tell on oil pricing, of course, but oil was up a few cents.

The real mover this morning is the stock market which looks to open down about 80 points.

I have my Scrooge McDuck suit at the ready and a rum-soaked crook to smoke.  (Rum-soaked crooks remind me of Congress, too, come to think of it.)

The Weak Ahead

With Donald Trump on the road, there’s very little news, other than who he’s hanging out with.

President Trump Praises Philippines’ Duterte – and Says Nothing About Thousands Killed in Drug Crackdown gives you part of the story.  The “light brush” in the mainstream media, though, is that the drugs provide the majority of the dough needed to bund the Muslim extremist insurgency.

That little asterisk gets overlooked.

I’m not saying the MainStreamMedia is a bunch of lazy sots, but if you flip over to the Library of Congress and read 147-pages of 2002 research in “A GLOBAL OVERVIEW OF NARCOTICS-FUNDED TERRORIST AND OTHER EXTREMIST GROUPS ” you’ll come across some real gems.

“As some insurgent groups have become increasingly involved in the drug trade, their criminal enterprises have assumed greater priority than their own ideological, political, or religious agendas. Examples include the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the southern Philippines and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Colombia…”

Of course, the U.S. Department of Brainwashing – which is what the liberal media tends toward with their victimization model and handwringing – doesn’t bother providing this large context of terrorism because it interferes with their agenda of social just-us.

My deflationist pal Jas Jain refers to born and bred American dopes…and hate to admit it, but it’s a tough point to argue.

Bottom line is terrorism has been funded by drugs for a couple of decades now and the MSM is woefully ignorant, or worse, complicit.  I hope the former but fear the latter.

Back to the Week’s Menu

Tomorrow we get Producer Prices.  Wednesday features the Consumer Price report, retail sales, and the Empire State Manufacturing numbers.  So much for wondering what will be the news items in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics, except them we get into the outlook for gold – and THAT is interesting.

Thursday, a belated Fed industrial production and utilization report lands.  Then Friday shows Housing starts.

We don’t see any major problems for the bulls to “talk-though” any negatives, but we shall see.  For now, we’re just watching the moving averages fall to figure out which one to play on the rebound.

An adaptive approach to (moderately irrational) markets is nice approach which we will elucidate on one of these first days…

Mueller isn’t the Only Leak Problem

As the Daily Beast rolls with Report: NSA Hunts for Moles Amid Crippling Information Leaks.

Too little, too late, but charmed, I’m sure.

The Collapse of Football

After the NFL botched the Anthem mess, we found this headlines laughably absurd: “Sources: Committee to talk Roger Goodell contract; last commish proposal included $49.5M salary, private jet.”

Ever ready to be of service, I am hereby announcing that I’m willing to step in for just $29-million per year and screw up the league and collapse attendance.  Why, I even have a an NFL-knee pad campaign cooked up.

FMTT…America’s mad and except for the head-rush of being in the asylum when the inmates are in charge, reader Bruce down in the highlands of Ecuador is maybe brighter than most of us…

Where’s my stogie?


Comments

What Will Drive Markets? Bitcoin Dims — 16 Comments

  1. George. Maybe you can explain in the Wednesday Peoplenomics Blog why with both the Global & US Peoplenomics Oscillator bullishly positive, you are so bearish. What value to an investor is the Peoplenomics Oscillator? You can’t sit on both sides of the fences.

  2. Bitcoin drops and Bitcoin gold is coming!
    http://www.kitco.com/news/2017-11-12/Bitcoin-Plunges-Over-2-000-In-A-Week-As-Bitcoin-Gold-Launches.html

    So, gold the ancient relic is coming back? The ancient relic seems to have staying power. Why would anyone want to buy Bitcoin gold? Why would anyone want their gold held by someone else? Bernie Madoff gave a good example what can happen when someone else has their hands on your wealth! Would George trade his gold coin for Bitcoin gold?

  3. Hmmm…. looking for the leaks..
    My theory is .. there aren’t any leaks.
    The stories I look for are the ones you’d normally toss in the trash that for some reason everyone feels that they have to spend millions and millions discrediting.
    Anything in government is first written up in triplicate. Then a committee has to be formed that has several subcommittees now let’s break that into others sections to prove it’s feasibility.
    Then the documenting it putting it up for debate then contact manufacturers for bids even broken down they have to have some documentation on feasibility.
    All in all a few thousand people have access to anything deemed a secret. The best way is to make it a page three story put it out with some wild story that once read you say my god martha lol look at this or put it in some gossip rag.
    Plausible deniability if it’s ever proven they can honestly say heck we told you is it our fault you didn’t take it seriously.

  4. Big fan of Trumps diner with a statist mass murderer who knows how to use other peoples bodies and lives and moneys better than they themselves do and is willing to use force and violence and political murders in the street to prove it….all to be blamed on the other terrorists..

    • Log in to the Peoplenomics site. Click on any link for the Master Index.
      https://peoplenomics.com/inside/index.htm
      Look for brainamp.xls down a few lines from top.
      Right click and select (Save target as). Then save it on your desktop.
      Log off Peoplenomics.
      Open that spreadsheet with your spreadsheet program (open office or Excel)
      Change the two numbers at the top of the sheet and Presto!!!

  5. George, I really worry about these proposed tax cuts concentrating political power into the hands of just a few families. Am sure you saw Lindsey Graham’s lament that if the Rs did not pass the tax cuts, their contributions from the donor class would dry up.

    Moreover, wouldn’t we rather spend that $1.5 trillion deficit on infrastructure rather than on trust fund babies and corporations who already offshore 2/3 of their profits?

    We’d be creating a lot of really good middle class jobs for a lot of local people who’ll spend the money creating a lot of other good jobs. Mike.

    • Good post Mike. Trump’s tax cut is hailed as a middle class tax cut which it isn’t. The tax cut is a bonanza for Corporate America & the wealthy. The middle class are given cuts in one hand & then have them taken away in another hand. Who is going to pay for the tax cuts (which cost trillions but there is no discussion on how to pay for it) to benefit the rich – of course the middle class & the poor Obamacare people. As you mentioned, infrastructure is a much better way to spend the trillions & will create jobs for working Americans. Even Clinton had the sense in his tax cuts not to touch the Estate Taxes because it is such a large source of tax revenue. This tax cut is vintage Trump where he buys a business, sucks all the money out of it, & then goes bankrupt leaving the investors holding the bag & Trump the gold. WORKING AMERICA BEWARE – Trump’s true colors are coming out in this tax cut. I was deceived originally & voted for him.

      • Estate taxes are nothing but class envy, punishing success. I work hard building a business, pay my legal taxes every year which are already confiscatory. Then I die and my company has to be sold to pay estate taxes. My heirs, my employees and my customers all suffer because of peoples greed and jealous nature. If you want government largess you should be willing to pay for it. Most would rather use the force of government to steal assets from others, while of course, the politicians take their cut off the top.

      • Did you vote for Obama? Where is your run down of Obama’s actual negative billion dollar effects on the poor and middle class? If you can’t list em, you are not credible and you can’t put 2 and 2 together.

    • I think the long term goal of our elected leaders and their deep state string pullers, is to sell everything of value off to private buyers and let them invest in the infrastructures they now own. Those buyers, who are most likely international corporations and nation states, will then charge the American people for those repairs and upgrades. Of course, that’s not public knowledge so don’t tell anybody. lol

  6. “found this headlines laughably absurd: “Sources: Committee to talk Roger Goodell contract; last commish proposal included $49.5M salary, private jet.””

    I’m so glad you brought this up, and not to forget PRIVATE JET FOR LIFE!

  7. Felt the earthquake here in Costa Rica. More mudslides, but no real damage or deaths that I can see on the news at this time.
    Used to puff and then chew on the Rum Soaked Crooks, but have now switched to Sonador Lonsdale’s from Honduras to puff on with a very nice sipping rum.
    Life is good here on my Social In-security.

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