I felt much better after writing up the worthless media reports that pass for news in today’s Coping section. Now we can get down to cases…
I’m looking for the market to go down a ways from here. It would be extremely graceful if we could have a decline this week that carries into next and then turns for a rally into Thanksgiving.
In Elliott terms, that would be a first wave down with the rally to come at the holiday. Call that a wave 2…
Then, since there ought to be a wave 3 down, have that come during the first part of December,
A Santa Claus rally would be expected going into Christmas and New Years, and we might think of this as having the potential to be a three-movement counter-trend rally from an ideal early December decline.
Come the New Year, there would be a decline to the movement’s low, but since everyone will be “expecting” it, there would be minimal damage to aware investors.
From – let’s call it a January or February’s low, we would rally like hell until mid May. Everyone would be thinking by then “Gee the worst is over.”
Except, that when you pull back from the charts a ways, you’d notice that we’d have just completed a massive wave 1 down of a larger degree.
And from that Depression becomes obvious.
This is not financial advice, of course. But, it is the kind of thing that might happen and would synch up nicely in the charts.
What’s more curious, in the short term is how Bitcoin is seemingly replaying the “After Peak” action that the stock market went through in 1930.
I don’t know how closely you follow Bitcoin, but do pay attention to the recent chart action:
As you can see, the typical price of Bitcoin has gone from $7,725 (my contacts aren’t in yet, but somewhere in there) down to call it $5,700 over the pseudo-holiday.
In order to get a sense of where Bitcoin COULD and MIGHT go, we built up a simple spreadsheet program that does nothing more than estimate Elliott wave action and gives us trading ideas. Peoplenomics.com subscribers will find it on the Master Index page up at the top. Password is “peoplenomics” without the quotes.
The beauty of the brainamp.xls spreadsheet is that it lets a user put in just two numbers – either a high and a low, or a low and a high – and it tells you what MAY be ahead.
So what MIGHT be out there for Bitcoin? I mean once the current rally ends?
Before we go down there, we’re in what could be a Wave 2 rally. According to the spreadsheet, we should in the very short-term be on our way back to 6,951,45.
Calling a rally top in stocks – bitcoins – or any other mechanism of delusion is lots of fun. Sure, there are analogs, too, if you know how to spot them. Like the wave declines for people in the news. Like Harvey and Kevin and Roy and…well, Bob Prechter has a wonderful site called www.socionomics.com that’s worth a scan frequently.
So from here, somewhere in the 6,900 and maybe 7,000-something and then down to (rounding off) something like 3,500. From there? Well, here’s the brainamp calculations:
This doesn’t mean Bitcoin will be at $2,000 any time soon, but seeing as manias do tend to fall at 2-3 times the speed of their initial rise, we wouldn’t rule out the POSSIBILITY of Wave III and $4,000 Bitcoins by Turkey Day.
Can this disaster be avoided? Oh, sure.
All Bitcoin as to do is set a fresh all -time high. I would never rule that one out. Wave counts “is what they is” until “they isn’t.”
Still, I’ve used the “brainamp” countless times to make – and keep a buck (or three). Peoplenomics subscribers have fun with it, too.
Quakes Are Back
After a long period of low-level quaking, suggested by heating and cooling of the Earth’s crust, we may be back into a period of building earthquakes.
Try these on for size:
And more importantly M 7.3 – 32km S of Halabjah, Iraq.
This latter one is of interest because it’s right on the Iran-Iraq border and near the major oil producing areas. Will it impact?
Then there are the dead people: More Than 348 Dead, Thousands Injured In Powerful Quake.
Too early to tell on oil pricing, of course, but oil was up a few cents.
The real mover this morning is the stock market which looks to open down about 80 points.
I have my Scrooge McDuck suit at the ready and a rum-soaked crook to smoke. (Rum-soaked crooks remind me of Congress, too, come to think of it.)
The Weak Ahead
With Donald Trump on the road, there’s very little news, other than who he’s hanging out with.
President Trump Praises Philippines’ Duterte – and Says Nothing About Thousands Killed in Drug Crackdown gives you part of the story. The “light brush” in the mainstream media, though, is that the drugs provide the majority of the dough needed to bund the Muslim extremist insurgency.
That little asterisk gets overlooked.
I’m not saying the MainStreamMedia is a bunch of lazy sots, but if you flip over to the Library of Congress and read 147-pages of 2002 research in “A GLOBAL OVERVIEW OF NARCOTICS-FUNDED TERRORIST AND OTHER EXTREMIST GROUPS ” you’ll come across some real gems.
“As some insurgent groups have become increasingly involved in the drug trade, their criminal enterprises have assumed greater priority than their own ideological, political, or religious agendas. Examples include the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the southern Philippines and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Colombia…”
Of course, the U.S. Department of Brainwashing – which is what the liberal media tends toward with their victimization model and handwringing – doesn’t bother providing this large context of terrorism because it interferes with their agenda of social just-us.
My deflationist pal Jas Jain refers to born and bred American dopes…and hate to admit it, but it’s a tough point to argue.
Bottom line is terrorism has been funded by drugs for a couple of decades now and the MSM is woefully ignorant, or worse, complicit. I hope the former but fear the latter.
Back to the Week’s Menu
Tomorrow we get Producer Prices. Wednesday features the Consumer Price report, retail sales, and the Empire State Manufacturing numbers. So much for wondering what will be the news items in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics, except them we get into the outlook for gold – and THAT is interesting.
Thursday, a belated Fed industrial production and utilization report lands. Then Friday shows Housing starts.
We don’t see any major problems for the bulls to “talk-though” any negatives, but we shall see. For now, we’re just watching the moving averages fall to figure out which one to play on the rebound.
An adaptive approach to (moderately irrational) markets is nice approach which we will elucidate on one of these first days…
Mueller isn’t the Only Leak Problem
As the Daily Beast rolls with Report: NSA Hunts for Moles Amid Crippling Information Leaks.
Too little, too late, but charmed, I’m sure.
The Collapse of Football
After the NFL botched the Anthem mess, we found this headlines laughably absurd: “Sources: Committee to talk Roger Goodell contract; last commish proposal included $49.5M salary, private jet.”
Ever ready to be of service, I am hereby announcing that I’m willing to step in for just $29-million per year and screw up the league and collapse attendance. Why, I even have a an NFL-knee pad campaign cooked up.
FMTT…America’s mad and except for the head-rush of being in the asylum when the inmates are in charge, reader Bruce down in the highlands of Ecuador is maybe brighter than most of us…
Where’s my stogie?