Economics drives history. Von Clausewitz 101: “Economics is just war by other means.”
So, we have three major play-acting / Kabuki performances going this week.
The curtain goes up this morning on GDP. And for those who aren’t following what this means in terms of the ongoing war (on the people) being waged by two corporate parties, clip this future map out so you’ll see the play:
As you can see, if the Q2 GDP comes in at (or below) Q1 – that will line out one course into the future. Specifically, the woke/left/Marxists/open border posse will be sent packing in the Mid-Term elections.
BUT, if we had gotten the (no incentive for government lie is there?) we will see more woke than even and the squeeze play will be on the rational middle people to vote for the doddering grandpa figure as the lest risk (though most impaired/controlled) option.
“The Envelope Please?”
“And the loser is?”
(Give us a chorus of “Go Brandon!”)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter. The smaller decrease in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller decrease in federal government spending.
If you believe – as some do – that a Depression is 3 quarters of negative GDP we could cross that threshold when Q3 completes. If you go by the Britanica “A depression may also be defined as a particularly severe and long-lasting form of recession, where the latter is generally understood, relative to a national economy, as a period of at least two consecutive quarters of decline in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, or gross domestic product.”
Others say it’s only a recession – which we want to agree with. But three quarters or a year? Could be here in 90-days. Now we’re into it.
Welcome to Lie School
OK: How would Ure arrange the Big Lie – without being open to prosecution for lying, of course – to “Sell this?”
One-way would-be manipulation of Fed financial proxies. Unseen by 99.9 percent of business “reporters” was the monthly H.6 Money Stocks report. Where we see that the Monetary base in the past month.
Last month, the Monetary base was decreased 1.5%. And for Q2? It was down 10.237 percent.
Let me explain the GEARING here. “IF there is less money in circulation THEN prices rise for the same level of commerce.”
Elaine and I eat pretty much the same food every month: Raw meat, fresh veggies, and a case or two of four-liter bottles of Carlo Rossi Pisano red wine (for the resveratrol, of course!). A year ago, our monthly bill was in the $480 range for food run. This morning, same store, same diet our tab was $596.
A year ago, you see, the Fed’s Monetary base was about 9 percent higher. Which means (now with less money in circulation, right) we would expect prices to be at least 10 percent higher.
Key Part of Biden’s Big Weimar 2 Lie:
If you cause enough inflation, it is impossible to have a “recession.” Because the prices will rise (and GPD is a dollarized index) so fast and furious that no one – even statisticians – will be able to keep up.
Imagine I give you 100 bucks. Tell you to go buy a couple of bottles of booze and go on a bender. You come back in a week, trying to dry out, but now I give you $200 bucks and point you back to the booze palace. Then the third week, I give you $400…. ever going to get sober?
By the same token then – if the Fed reduces the monetary base fast enough this will drive PRICES up – and they can do so with enough effect, that a dollarized report – like this morning’s GDP report – will NEVER be able to keep up – until prices are on the Moon and everyone is starving because their version of Biden’s Weimar will prevent anyone from catching on.
That’s why when we read stories this morning like U.S. yield curve flashing more warning signs of recession risks ahead (yahoo.com) we appreciate that this is ALL about keeping a recession from happening prior to the Mid-Terms. Sanity and sound money have nothing to do with it.
Well, except a few readers here, of course! And maybe China has noticed:
Lie School – Lesson 2
No, the economy hasn’t recovered. There were still fewer people working last month than at the pre-pandemic employment high.
The way you avoid outing the lie is by referencing comparison periods INSIDE the lockdown window.
So, when we read in the Wednesday report “In the fourth quarter of 2021, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 9.6 million. Gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 6.7 million.” from Labor, we whipped out economic reality in data. The boxed area is what they went all goo-goo and gushy about. The Circled areas are what the Economic Grownups look at:
The Truth (if’n you can handle the truth?) is this:
- Yes – Q4 in part 2 of the bio war lockdown was better than part 1. Duh.
- No, fewer people are working now (all in) than were working before the bio war began.
- And in the latest reporting month, we lost 315,000 jobs.
Predictably, next month’s report in a couple of weeks should show an increase in the number of people working (which will be heralded like Joe Biden should be sitting at the right-hand of Dude, or something). BUT, we would be surprised if more people than late 2019 are actually working.
And that’s before we have the discussion of the half million plus illegals who have jumped the joke of a Biden Border between then and now.
Crooks and statisticians are seen in this analysis as very different. Easy to catch the common crook. Substantially harder to catch statisticians!
Can You Imagine This?
Why, the number of first-time unemployment filers is still holding low. Gee, (with fewer people working and no counting of dumped illegals all over hell and gone, who would have thought?):
Same week, different shit, I’m afraid.
Later this morning, we get some economic data from the KC Federal Reserve. By the luck of the calendar, they are a “day late” often times on the national economic feeding frenzy of news jackals. Which means they can afford to be candid and forthright a bit more, as we figure it. Now, seeing how “the political fix” is in, we can digest what dreams may come.
Dust Bowl’s Here, Too
Reports have it Portland, in the uprising state of Wokregon (woke plus Oregon, right?) hit 111 F t’other day. And still hot as the blazes here in the East Texas Outback, too. But not everywhere is dry: Heavy rains cause flooding, power outages in Appalachia.
Grab your pool cue and let’s bang some heads:
Job cuts in the wings: Ford CEO Hints at Job Cuts Amid Push to Expand EV Production.
TV movie plot of the day: Hawaii couple accused of stealing the identities of dead infants in Texas decades ago, prosecutors say.
Politics is such fine sport: Commanders owner Dan Snyder to testify before Congress. This is a kind of place-holder story, as we figure it – since little is likely to be talked about in public. In our simplistic view, you can’t have 53 mostly-millionaire playas who are at their lifetime testosterone peaks and NOT have some kind of wokee and grab-ass issues. But hey – nothing a little saltpeter in the milk and more women in the locker room (for oversight, natch) can’t fix, right? Then to have a panel of virtue-signal self-righteous pricks on the Hill? Did I mention AOC is on this committee? What could go wrong. Where’s my BS folder….
From which I pull out this: Warhamner is still tracking the war expansion plans:
“The Pentagon announced ‘Merica will send a handful of older Lockheed Martin’s F-22 stealth fighters to new NATO member Poland to pointedly project full support of the Ukraine and to deter further Russian aggression. All well and good, but this deal got me to wondering about the LM portfolio, which led me to this recent insightful piece on the company’s portfolio.
There’s a lot of Ure tax dollars and mine being handed out to this sprawling defense systems company, money that is slipped back into political contributions when LM lobbies Pelosi and company to further expand their already behemoth defense production capabilities via foreign military sales.”
It’s a textbook symbiotic capitalistic relationship – congress funds LM, LM sells their wares to the U.S. ‘and’ our allies, then LM ‘donates’ some of their lucrative profits back to the congressmen and women who supported LM acquisition programs and/or have LM production facilities in their districts.
Just think how Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan will ramp up America’s overseas arsenal stocking! Wish I could see her hubbies trade book for stock tips to buy today and tomorrow…
Only for the poor? Biden administration announces $400 million for rural internet access. Bet if I changed my last name to something more – oh, you know, poor sounding – I could get some of that. Our internet costs out here run $335 a month. Maybe if I wrote off more and looked poorer on paper there’d be some relief for the working class, not just the poor?
OK, off to stock up for another couple of weeks. Wine supplies are low and temps still rising….
Write when you get rich, preferably on some kind of non-notional, real, and edible basis of accounting…