This is one of the shorter columns you’ll get out of me: 

The whole future hangs on how the market does relative to 2,040 on the S&P at the close today.

Oh, sure, the market will open to the down side this morning.  But go back and look at the Peoplenomics Oscillator which I shared yesterday (large view here). 

Notice that black X I referred to?  Well, with the downside action today, we should be about to touch that.  Nice how that X has been on the chart for how long?  (Seven weeks).

The question, if the S&P closes below, oh, 2,035 is not whether it will come back up to the 2,040 level.  Instead, as Robin Landry noted back in April of this year, it will be whether this will be a “kiss of death”.

That’s when a market drops through a major support line.  If it comes back up to the line, or only slightly over, it is then set to really fall apart.  But, if the support level holds, then we might see the market rally a bit, and then down into the mid September Fed meeting.  I’d sure like to see 2,040 revisited right about then, too.

Seasonality figures in here somewhere:  Annual average high date is next Wednesday.  And there’s the tendency of markets to rally going into a holiday which may impact as we sneak up on Labor Day.

More tomorrow on the site, plus the updated chart pack.  Main thing to remember for today is we don’t really care about the mid-week market positions.  It is the weekly closes that drive the model because there’s just too much day-trading and slop in the analysis if you try to do things on a daily basis.

As long as we keep out of harms way on the big stuff, the small stuff is just that.

Market dynamics and futures hint at a bit of downward pressure, but go back and read how this 2,040 level was nailed as the line in the sand way back in April.

As I said then “2,040:  The Only Battle that Matters.”  A view that I’m comfortable even here more than four months later.

So What Will Move the Markets?

We can spin the globe and throw a dart at it…quite literally.

China is still giving a few traders ulcers.  The problem (for offshore investors, like US players in the Chinese markets) goes something like this:  You maybe made a small fortunate in the SSE when it was on its way up.  But you sold fairly adroitly when things turned down.

Good for you.

Except that by devaluating the Yuan, the problem is any profits you made got raped by the exchange rate hit.  Yeeouch!  So market worries over China.

Then China has the nut next door, North Korea, which has proclaimed it is in a quasi-state of war with South Korea.  While this is likely bullshit and bluster (China needs distractions, just like America does), there’s a chance that a Korean conflict could pop and that would be very bad for the West.

Except that we might actually build some appliance factories in the USA in the aftermath.

Toss in the jitters over Europe and the new party in Greece (apparently some Syriza Greeks are waking up to their Central Bank has been stolen by the ECB and aim to change that) and you have two of the three rings of the global circus.

The US being the third which we can get into some other morning.  Right now it’s distraction nation.

Not Just Sheriff Joe Now

No, and not The Don either:  Different sheriff in Arizona now says Mexican drug cartels control US soil 30-miles from Phoenix.

I know what the Obamanation solution will be: Sue or fire all sheriffs that speak up.

Meantime, WTF is with Mexico charging $20 bucks for a Norte to walk into Mexico and we’re not matching them?

Once again, the lawlessness of You Know Who (bent on Losing the War with Mexico and bankrupting Social Security by giving it to people who never paid in) becomes ever more clear.

Then there are the illegal/lawbreaker promoters who want the pope to meet with illegals when he comes to Mexico.  Marketing, marketing, marketing, ain’t it?

What’s the saying? Oh, yeah:  A fish rots from its head.

Can we hold elections early, please?

To Hil in a Handbasket

Still lying about the emails, we notice.

“Depends what you mean by…” gotta be the family crest.

Mystery of the Week

I’m still trying to figure out why White House and Congressoidal help is turning up on the outed Ashley Madison cheat sheets.

I mean don’t they do enough screwing at work as it is?

Climate:  A Data and Smoke Ramble

Judging by some of the headlines on Global Warming, the Earth must be about to completely fry.  But when I tracked down the actual report from NOAA, see the highlights:

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2015 was the highest for July in the 136-year period of record, at 0.81°C (1.46°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.08°C (0.14°F). As July is climatologically the warmest month of the year globally, this monthly global temperature of 16.61°C (61.86°F) was also the highest among all 1627 months in the record that began in January 1880. The July temperature is currently increasing at an average rate of 0.65°C (1.17°F) per century.

Separately, the July average temperature across global land surfaces was 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20th century average, the sixth warmest for July on record. Large regions of Earth’s land surfaces were much warmer than average, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. The average temperature for Africa was the second highest for July on record, behind only 2002, with regional record warmth across much of eastern Africa into central areas of the continent. Record warmth was also observed across much of northern South America, parts of southern Europe and central Asia, and the far western United States. A large swath stretching from eastern Scandinavia into western Siberia was cooler than average, with part of western Russia much cooler than average. Cooler than average temperatures were also observed across parts of eastern and southern Asia and scattered areas in central and northern North America.

Yes, climate is something to keep an eye on, but we can discount a number of extreme cyclical events that may be helping things along.  For one, we need to acknowledge the El Nino/La Nina cycle is totally out of whack.  Talk to a Californian about rain.

One of the biggest problems (while we all get worked up (or over)) by climate hype is that the advent of stable temperature recordings is only a recent development.

For example, read up on the calibration of thermometers and realize that until relatively recently, thermometers were calibrated against one-another.  And when calibrated against freezing and boiling points, remember unless distilled water was used, and the atmospheric pressure of the test controlled, inaccuracy comes into the reading.

In  the meantime, the latest presidential pronouncements on how bad the coal industry is are somewhat suspect when we read, about the same time, that democorp operative George Soros has been buying up stock in beat-down coal outfits.

It all smells of what?  I’ll leave that to you.  I’d love to see the dates on his stock acquisitions and compare it with the anti-coal action out of Washington and wherever Fearless Golfer was at the time.

Still, there’s always room for an open mind, so here’s what occurs to me.  First, get the 1987 starting point paper (Hansen and Lebedeff) and then flip to the color charts beginning on page 13,335 *(yes, long page number).  Notice in particular all the out of bounds global warming in the Arctic 1880-1940 and tell me how that gets explained away?

The problem is there may be some mechanics at play that are simply not understood or acknowledged.  Some candidates?  Sure

Atmospheric nuclear tests

Effects of industrial buildings if you follow Orgone theory

Or, something as simple as use of HF radio waves which coincided well with the warming being first a polar and then more generalized phenomena as radio spectral use spread from low frequency polar winter to higher frequencies over time and more stations on the air.

And we know there’s something to this because of HAARP…remember?

So yes, fun for research, but it’s a low payoff pursuit so we won’t spend too much time on it except to say when Soros is buying coal while the government decries it, look for a policy change down the road or a crisis for oil and gas ahead.  Startling new “evidence” that gasoline or diesel is in the works?