Warrior Moon is tomorrow, or rather, tonight, depending on which side of the International Dateline you’re on.
The term is rarely seen, outside of the old historical pieces, and even then, it’s often in concert with other language. In 1907 it appears in Henry Smith Williams’ World History discussing a people who “worshipped a warrior moon goddess.” Which only matters to the student of Lesser People of Asia Minor (in general) and particularly on the page 417 drill-down into the Cappadocians.
More generally, warrior moons are useful to fast-moving warriors in unfamiliar territory.
Snow Moon is another description of tomorrow’s Moon. From the Old Farmer’s Almanac. We’ll keep our fingers crossed that it’s not a “mushroom Moon.”
The Media Hypesteria making the rounds today? “‘Putin can still step back’: Russian tanks and artillery seen moving into Ukraine ‘attack positions.’ We don’t trust Putin, and if troops are rotating, that would be normal. Please do remember, these are Russian forces on Russian soil.
Want to place bets on how the US would respond to Mexican or Canadian worries about US military maneuvers on either one of our borders? We’d tell ’em to piss off.
Headlines Undercut Rally Talk
Our view is the rally today is likely to be a very short-lived affair. Big pop at the open, but what’s the news flow like in Ukraine today? Not good:
- Gunfire is ongoing: Two Ukrainian soldiers wounded amid 5 ceasefire violations in JFO area (ukrinform.net)
- Canada just keeps wading deeper into this mess: Canada commits lethal weapons in support of Ukraine (ukrinform.net)
- And the Trudope government is seen funding this: Ukraine to get C$500 M loan from Canada (ukrinform.net)
Meantime, Putin et al will paint this as anti-democratic and a “reason” to rescue Russian-speakers west of the Russian border. Putin’s been clever here, setting up country-status claiming groups in lands taken in 2014 leading Ukraine’s Parliament calls on world not to recognize ‘independence’ of self-proclaimed ‘LPR/DPR’ (ukrinform.net). Those being the puppet mini-me’s of Putin in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Markets? Going Nowhere!
We seem headed into a major rally at the open this morning. But the specific cause is always suspect.
In markets, I’ve been telling you to be alert to a possible rally this week. Because the Commercials hate to pay out to “Dumb Bears.” In this options cycle, that would have been the bears who bought equity put options which expire Friday. Or the Index Option Bears which are settled Thursday.
Last month, Options Friday was January 21st. Our Aggregate Index closed on Index Thursday at 38,590.00. Almost laughably, with the “pop rally” at the open this morning, as of 6:15 AM Texas time, futures priced our Aggregate Index at 38,537.84.
I hope you can see the (relative) joy of our Aggregate Index? As of this morning it was nailing a whole month of “economic progress” as 52.16 points.
How small is 52 points in a month? Well, that’d be an ANNUAL growth rate of around 1.6%. (Way to go, Brandon! While the Fed’s still printing at the 24% annual rate. But I digress.)
As we have said many times, the real money on Wall Street is no longer in finely honed economic decision-making. It’s in raw gambling. Also called churn.
What commercial money managers will cite to explain their poor overall performance might include things like “Russia, omicron, the coming Recession, and management fees.”
Have fun with all that.
Headlines today are selling hopium in the dopium.
Echos of Cuba ’62
We continue to be struck by how the whole Ukraine Thing is the reciprocal of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. When the Soviets tried to put short-range missiles into Cuba.
In the modern replay, NATO is trying to put Ukraine into a NATO role and with that would come more arms on Russia’s border.
This “Global Mass Consciousness takes 60-years, or one long-wave economic cycle to unravel” plays out in ways that continue to inspire awe.
Word and concept searches prior to the mass indexing of the web leaves us thin on results, but the phrase heavily sold when the Cuban Crisis wound down was “Khrushchev Blinked.” 3,100 Google hits, but the term was far more widely spoken in the historical period (some of us do remember).
The UMC (universal mass consciousness) is playing with us (so-called) “moderns” by offsetting the modern era “blink.” Which becomes our Secretary of State.and .
Since we already have a lot of “blink-en” going on, does that change the possibility of war over the three-day weekend ahead?
We’ve long suspected that Earth has a kind of “super consciousness” that we all (generally) participate it, however unconscious we are. And that since history is all driven by expectation states in the Many Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, does Humanity keep repeating similar dreams *(like the Cuban missile crisis) in parallel ways to test other ways humankind repeating dreams can resolve?
Market Action Changes
What does come into focus – if there really is a climb-down from WW iii, is that the Market is still in a position where a major move up could lay ahead of us.
As always, the market offers several paths into the Future:
- We could be in a larger Wave 3 down and this is a (2). In this case, the rally could end at the top of the yellow down channel.
- We could still be in the 4. Where the 4 (1) up saw an a-b-c down for 4 (2) which could put up in 4 (3) up to finish at the top of the white trend channel.
- OR we could see the major Wave 3 as complete and now we’re off int0 the stratosphere again.
This last is somewhat supported by the notion that Energy and Gold/Metals do very well in major Fifth wave blowoffs.
It’s not like we’re the only ones looking for signs and portents. The FOMC held an “emergency” meeting Monday. But little was accomplished as reported in.
This morning, both oil and gold are taking personal time. So, we’ll have to keep tuning-in for the next exciting episodes of this financial soap opera.
“So, other than that, Mrs. Lincoln?”
Actual Data Drops
Since you were wondering, got two of ’em. Let’s start with the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing report:
The headline general business conditions
index moved up four points to 3.1.
New orders and shipments held steady,
and unfilled orders increased. Delivery
times continued to lengthen. Labor
market indicators pointed to a solid
increase in employment and a longer
average workweek. The prices paid
index remained near its recent peak,
and the prices received index reached a
new record high.”
12.6% Inflation Seen
The Labor Department’s Producer Prices where inflation in the pipeline is often seen 60-120 ahead of when it’s planted on shelves (I’ll annualize for you):
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in January, (12.68% annualized) seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.4 percent (4.9% annualized) in December 2021 and 0.9 percent in November (11.35% annualized). On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 9.7 percent for the 12 months ended January 2022.
In January, the index for final demand services rose 0.7 percent 8.7% annualized), and prices for final demand goods moved up 1.3 percent. (16.76% annualized, Venezuela, here we go…)
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.9 percent in January 2022, the largest increase since rising 1.0 percent in January 2021. For the 12 months ended January 2022, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 6.9
Terrible news on Inflation.
All of which doesn’t stop the commercials talking their book.
Notables to Ponder
Venezuela-style politics comes to America as 21-Year-Old Quintez Brown Charged in ‘Attempted Assassination’ of Louisville Mayoral Candidate Craig Greenberg (thedailybeast.com). We keep waiting for the much-promoted violence from right wing extremists to appear.
Wryly, we note that if democrats really believed in gun registration, they could all register their own by setting up a public-interest program independent of government. I mean if they REALLY want to register guns, ya’ll go make up a ledger and have fun. We’ll be out back plinking.
Durham’s Hammer is still swinging. And may come down soon as Durham Probe: Final Report Will Be Damning | National Review reports. Turns out, when you read the court filings, this thing is dirtier than Watergate and there are questions about what Clinton (and even Obama) knew. What comes into focus is democrat-backed spying on a president to undermine his ability to fulfill the office. Will she ever wear orange, though?
Surprised? By what? When a Bill Clinton appointed judge does this? Judge throws out Palin libel case against New York Times – POLITICO. No, of course not.
Political Hit on ZeroHedge? US accuses financial website of spreading Russian propaganda | AP News. We’d sure like to know the “government sources” on this, because it sounds like heavy-handed government interference in an independent news operation. This is what happens, though, when government’s running a narrative agenda, and someone speaks off narrative. Who said it? “Unnamed sources”? That’s usually a tip-off that high-fuckery is at work. But that’s based on only, er…53-stinking years(!) of reporting, off and on… Same tactics were used in the HF around Covid data, trials data coverup, and denial of bioweaponry being in play.
FMTT, the world isn’t that stupid anymore. Old Paradigm just can’t seem to embrace that. There’s a Global Digital Revolution in Play and America’s 4th and long in the game.
Sourdough pancakes time.
Write when you get rich,