Wagering Wall Street: Sucker Bets?

by

Pardon the brevity today.  It’s a time when investing can be serious business.  Especially when the economic Long Wave is as much calling the shots about our futures as much as the over-hyped “pretend leaders” who haven’t solved any real problems facing America for several decades.

Yes, Washington has listened to so much “green-speak” that they have taken to recycling the same politicians, dog-whistle issues, bankrupt economic policies; or as Talking Heads put it, “same as it ever was.”

A Long Wave View

That there is a long wave in economics is not debatable.  What is debatable is its length.  The first proponent was Nicholas Kondratieff (*Kondratiev by revisionists, we prefer the 1933 American Economics Association spelling).  Who observed a (roughly) 46–56-year regular cycle in the economy globally.

If we take the Crash of 1929 and tack on 48 years, we get close (1977).  But there’s a case to be made that the recessions 1970-1976 was “it” for the previous cycle.  We note the National Bureau of Economic Research dates both a 1970 recession and then a 1976 falter. But they can’t fault Sloppy Joe – so how serious?

Their K-Wave cycle length is relatively fixed, but there were things like the Vietnam War, the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1975, Yom Kippur war was ongoing, and so go economic cycles.

Still, given that 44-45 years was a likely outlier, the present decline looks to us like a Biggy – comprised of a 43-year cycle and a 50-year cycle for a total of 93 years on a “crash to crash” basis.

We go over the charts on our Peoplenomics subscriber side twice a week in detail.  But the one everyone should be aware of is the day-by-day line up that may be seen in this view comparing the recent market declines (blue) with the 1929 collapse sequence (red):  Inversion starting?

As anyone can see, in this alignment there is an implied case for either a grand blow UP, which would break the parallel to 1929.  OR we could have a marvy opening today +500 and then have it collapse into the abyss.

If the story driving us over the edge is not a “demonstration of commitment nuke” by the Ruskies, what else might be large enough to impact?  Oh…Railway workers ballot on further strike action – Personnel Today.  Voting will wrap this coming Monday.

Early Rally Tip-Off?

I won’t go through the details of how to play a crazy market like this one.  Except to say that it’s a challenge because it’s so damn tempting to try and pull past performance into the present.  Trust me, it doesn’t work.

But what has done OK has been the hard-nosed sticking with the basics:  A consensus of parabolic SARs, On-Balance Volume, a couple of stochastics (fast and slow) and topped off with a side of MACD.

A number of readers (in the comments section) get really vociferous and even angry sounding about how this market is playing out.  But, from our viewpoint, there’s little reason to get whipped into an emotional state by anything attached to paper assets.  It’s a game, for God’s sake.  Money is how we keep score, but little else.

Simple rules apply:  People who work longer, or smarter, tend to have more money than people who shun work and aren’t terribly bright.  But, as I offer myself as living proof, even if you THINK you understand trading, absent hard, unbreakable trading rules, it’s mighty easy to lose money.  Expensive education.

Still, we’d like to see the market rally at least until the Fed Industrial Production and Cap Utilization numbers hit in a few minutes.  After the market has been open a couple of hours, we’ll see how the indicators look and make a decision whether to sit on the sidelines (again, been doing a lot of that here lately) waiting for the perfect set-up for the next short position.

Inmates in the Asylum

We will reiterate the reason why we “fled the Big City” in 2003 and moved to the solitude of the East Texas Outback, is because people in cities are batshit crazy.  Ever since the US pioneered attacking civilian populations in WW II at places like Dresden and Nagasaki, we have followed as “risk-averse” a path as we could think of.

Every morning when we read the news headlines, evidence of the global insanity slaps us upside the head.

Anthony Fauci reprises his Josef Mengele role?  Read Boston University ‘Creates’ New Covid Strain with ‘80% Kill Rate’.  The government has lost control of murdercine and should not fund global death schemes.  The very fact of publicizing our “war crimes in advance” simply moves the ball down the field for anti-American researchers who are always looking for a better, cheaper, faster way of killing off the once land of Liberty inhabitants.

Nevertheless, America continues to talk one thing while doing another.  US warns Russia of “war crimes” after Kamikaze drone attack on Kyiv.  Drones that were likely made in Iran.  (We’d love to have a forensic accounting team after to see where Iran got the money for research and construction…)

And speaking of China:  Blinken warns China on ‘faster timeline’ to force Taiwan to submit to its demands for unification.  China – which Blinken (and the staff of Nod over at State) don’t get, is that on State’s watch, China has wrapped a rope around our nuts and can jerk our supply chains any which-way they feel like.  It would only take a Xi-level decision to wipe out Amazon, Walmart, and other critical American companies.

Joe wants our guns.  Sure, you saw where Biden calls for gun control day after Raleigh shooting. But if Joe sincerely wants to take guns away, why isn’t he pressing to defund Secret Service.  Oh…only the elites get protection.  Aha! I see it now…

Media matters 1:  Most idiotic marketing test ever:  YouTube Ends Limited Test That Locked 4K Video Behind Premium Paywall.  This was like trying to “lock up stereo behind a paywall and only let folks hear monaural.”  Tech genies will not be locked and surely SOMEONE had to be bright enough to figure this out?  No?

Mediocracy 2:  Microsoft outs Windows 11 OOB update (KB5020387) to fix TLS/SLS network issues.  Which were created in which previous release?

Space Weather note – Huge Gamma Ray Burst is the talk of the town: It’s the BOAT: Astronomers observe “brightest of all time” gamma-ray burst.

Meanwhile, Solar Cycle 25 here on the rock is moving up a little faster than originally forecast:

Ham radio DX (long distance) comms are warming up – which is nice.  Should be a great winter on the low bands.

ATR:  Eyes, Robots

An update on my ongoing eye issues – more information than burdensome.  Eye Doc reports the left (multiple surgeries) eye from the displaced IOL and subsequent new type replacement is stable and doing well.  Right eye is marginal and likely will have riboflavin cross-linking (CXL) done early next year.  It’s not doing much for vision now – best case is 20-60. Still runs 20-30 with a scleral lense on, though.

Sheesh…the getting older stuff – always a new challenge (beyond simple ones like running out of beer!)

Useful Labor Note:  Got talking to one of our delivery drivers (brown truck sort) and we’re hearing there may be a strike ahead a few months.  Reason is the company is pressing for driver-facing cameras.

I asked if there was a big driver theft issue…no!  But it sure sounds like corporate types are looking for new and creative ways to piss away money.

I asked him “Who’s going to watch all the videos from 125-thousand delivery units?”  Shoulder shrug back.

Seriously – this is a “WTF is going on with corporate thinking?”  Pure China surveillance state stuff.  Empire building in the HR dept?

The solution will cost many times what the problem is.  So, Ure’s tossed in ideas are pretty simple:

  • Put air conditioning in all the delivery trucks for driver safety.
  • Tell teamster drivers to agree to driver-facing cams ONLY if there is an equal investment in C_LEVEL facing cams and all that is viewed by the Union.  Turnabout is fair play, right?
  • And have the Company back off demands for recording AUDIO as well… unless the mahogany foxhole suites are also mic’ed and cam’ed including C-Level restrooms.

No one will listen.  But seriously – seems like security state bullshit to record sight and sound of every driver every shift doesn’t it?  Help a brother out?  Where’s the payoff or is this more Woke Joke?

OK, off to watch what is likely a 500-point Bear skinning festival by the commercials.

I can hear it now: “New Shooter – coming out!” And other craps.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

52 thoughts on “Wagering Wall Street: Sucker Bets?”

  1. Taking all the lies and connecting the dots together . The way 2 play this is take hayburners with time and add slowly at the line . Your country of lies and sin indeed Australia and the world are going to hell . A disgrace and all gurus just stay stand aside . Gutless spivs every one of them . Long zero nothing . Gold pathetic

    • Can’t speak for others but I have made more money standing aside than trying to grab every nickel.
      Desperation to be all in is dangerous mindset.

  2. Front running stock buybacks in November, also many missed it and she can call it anything she wishes but Treasury basically started up QE in place of the Fed – call it what you want but the market found footing ……..

  3. Neutron bombs away – MFers!

    Boom, boom,boom,….boom..that was like 15 of em.

    Soon there after, the drone swarms will spread out across the continent – “piloted” by starvin Chinese Men & Women…incentive/point system for confirmed killz.

    Chicoms are waiting…strategically..forUS/Nato -Russia to come to direct blows..waiting. They would very much like to remove all the Guns from Murhicans hands in the meantime- has been an ongoing op..china jo is Ure bagman.

    China Jo – shouting out the murdered Ohio Reps name during news conference (“where is she?”) – evil shit sent chilling message to Child Sex Abuse Investigators/Protectors/Advocates – They (clowns in action & fumblingbumbmblingidiots) will Sanction Ure ass, should you advocate or try to protect and or prosecute.

    Elites (billionaires/Pols- rothchild zionists) really do enjoy “consuming” our children.. classic interview video – member Scorpions slipped up (a little buzzed) about commonality of child sexual abuse “orgies” going on at house parties of all the elites in Europe..

    ? On the “loosh farm/library” – why do all the ancient pillars on buildings meant for gathering in- point to same general area in heavens ?

    Off to the trough, for breakfast- sheeps chow – no not beef chow mien like they have at Lee Ho Fuks..https://youtu.be/W6b2XTSMkAk

    • When you read between the lines you are spot on . Well done to have the courage to say it . Well done

    • “china jo”, really? which one of the two leading presidential 24 candidates owns IP in china, has bank accounts in china and pays more in chinese income tax than US income tax with those chinese taxes going to actually support the chicom gov and which candidate has none of the above?

  4. c/c++ software technology 1 buggy 2 malware vulnerable and 3? software modules larger than one page of code in violation of Boeing hardware engineers’ software standards.

    Standards in place before 1966 until after 1980.

    Then came the invasion of the c/c++ computer programmers starting in ~1991.

    LinuxS and Windows written in c/c++.

    And does Boeing 737 MAX software use a version of Linux Mint?

    Microsoft have similar software quality issues?

    “Lansweeper’s research found Windows 11 adoption remains limited. It claimed only 2.61% of users across business and consumer have upgraded to Windows 11, while 81.87% remain on Windows 10. It says its data is based on research from over 27 million Windows devices. Windows 11 adoption among consumers was slightly higher at just over 3%, while business adoption was just under 2.5%.”

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/a-surprising-number-of-pcs-cant-upgrade-to-windows-11-heres-why/

    • I acquired a case of (wiped) Dell lappys (and a dozen or so desktops) a month or so ago. I just started going through them yesterday: Windows 10 installed, but “Dell recommends you upgrade to Windows 11…”

      Dell also sold all these boxes with Ubuntu instead of Windows. I’m no longer in the business, nor have I access to unlimited copies or licenses. Guess what’s going in all these computers as an OS…?

    • On mine it’s that “secure boot” crap I’m not interested in anyway. The folks at MS sure as hell don’t make it easy to stick with them!

  5. Typically, vehicular video only sees the light of day when an incident occurs that calls the action of the driver into question. Backed over a mailbox? Check the video to see what the driver was doing at the time. Packages disappearing? See above.

    For the last 15 of my 30 years in law enforcement, I had video/audio recordings of my activities during any citizen contacts. I didn’t like it initially, but it saved my bacon a couple of times when people made false accusations against me. It’s a tool that can be used for good, or a mill stone that can grind people to dust. All in how it’s used by the folks in power.

  6. I expected Monday to be an ‘up’ opening in the markets.., I did not expect a 500+ point surge. Same as today.., I thought there would be a follow-through from yesterday’s climb.,[ 100 to 200 points] but I did not expect 550 point jump at the open.
    Still sittin’, and lookin’, and waitin’ – on the sidelines. The big boys are playing too fast & too loose for me.
    Let’s see what this pile-up looks like an hour before the close.
    .
    Luckily., my eye sight has never been a problem – good genetics, I guess. My hearing has diminished somewhat though. Too many years on the firing line and possibly one too many explosions. [According to the VA.]

    • Flawed PCR test?

      “But beyond the obvious fact that bird flu vaccines could be spreading more and worse strains of bird flu, the mass death of chickens is not based on actual sick chickens, but rather on the mass culling of flocks when a few test positive on a PCR test. That sounds familiar, doesn’t it? A few chickens, that may or may not show symptoms of illness, test positive for bird flu on a faulty test, and an entire flock of 50,000 or more is proactively sacrificed so that this terrible disease does not spread. It’s sort of we had to burn the village down to save it type of logic. Obviously such a crisis could also be manufactured to cause food shortages.”

      https://sukwan.substack.com/p/bird-flu-vaccines-pcr-tests-and-the

    • “Better get ready to disinfect the Thanksgiving turkey this year ”

      LOL LOL reminded me of a movie I once watched.. where imogene coca is the crazy grandma.. and she cooks the guinne pig in the oven.. and when she brings it out for the spcial family meal she says.. Oh its safe I used Lysol to baste it with LOL LOL..
      the crazy grandpa was in the toilet and he says quick everyone come quick I have a reading.. they rush to the bathroom and he says .. our future is looking up and good times are ahead she how the end of it points up out of the water to the sky.. LOL LOL LOL LOL
      that sort of reminds me of JB.. he is the crazy grandpa saying look after all I have done things are looking up our future is bright and you have to thank me for it.. LOL LOL LOL

    • “The avian flu virus is mutating and killing more and more birds”

      Price of eggs will be trippled by the weekend..

  8. It’s not so much that they did it – Boston University ‘Creates’ New Covid Strain with ‘80% Kill Rate’. – It’s that they announced it !
    .., and if they have tweaked that little bastard., who else has, or now ‘will’ do the same and do a multi-point release of the new & improved covid variant ?

  9. The U.S. didn’t pioneer attacking civilians in WW2. It’s gone on throughout history. Do you think “rape and pillage” was carried out by the barbarians against an enemy’s SOLDIERS? The Japanese in Nanking and Sherman in Atlanta come to mind.

  10. Did somebody whisper Black Monday out there ….
    I’m sure it’s just a rumor ….
    But, then again …
    Probably just wishful thinking from
    This bear who went short this morning …
    Obviously not trading advice!
    After all, I’m in Vegas Baby

  11. GU: We will reiterate the reason why we “fled the Big City” in 2003 and moved to the solitude of the East Texas Outback, is because people in cities are batshit crazy.

    Ya think?

    In New York City, a 48-year-old man was fatally shoved in front of an oncoming Queens subway train during Monday night’s rush hour after he accidentally bumped into another rider, cops and sources said.

    https://nypost.com/2022/10/17/man-dead-after-being-shoved-in-front-of-subway-in-queens-in-yet-another-transit-fatality/

  12. “Who’s going to watch”

    Algos watch. Algos probably keep track of how fast we type the characters in our passwords. Neural networks make Blackrock, Blackrock.

    I was talking to the U-Scan jockey and they explained AI monitors us buying our stuff. If the shopper movements/programmed polygons don’t match algo patterns the machine stops and a person has to verify. The U-Scan probably has face recognition. After a few security checks they let us fly though if we’re proven honest. I don’t steal so can’t say directly if the thieves are stopped more often..

    I think WMT also uses “shot spotter technology” in the store.

    “You can use these things in production and get results,” he said. As a result, there are several areas where Walmart uses AI technologies and natural language processing in search and personalization, he explained.”

    – Jun 9, 2022

    You cats already know.

    • “Algos probably keep track of how fast we type the characters in our passwords.”

      Who types passwords any more…?

      On the really rare occasion when I do, I use Microsoft’s “Character Map” to “type” them, and have done so for 20 years. It won’t evade Tempest (lead foil will, though) but it makes it impossible for a keylogger to filch a password.

  13. Oh and speaking of cams, how many people “had to” get Vaxx’ed to keep their jobs?

    Background checks/social media checks/drug testing/Vaxx’ing requirements before hire only to face moment to moment algo monitoring.

    That’s work. All for what, $20.00 an hour? The dignity.

    • “Oh and speaking of cams, how many people “had to” get Vaxx’ed to keep their jobs? ”

      None.

      “…have to get vaxxed” is a message from God, telling a person they’re in the wrong job. Neither The Almighty nor one’s current employer is responsible for those with deaf ears…

  14. “Space Weather note – Huge Gamma Ray Burst is the talk of the town: It’s the BOAT: Astronomers observe “brightest of all time” gamma-ray burst.”

    And yet, it is comparatively, almost infinitesimally small. A proper gamma burst from a nova is an ELE killshot (see Tyson’s video lecture on gamma bursts) which is both speed-of-light instantaneous and impossible to survive.

  15. “Reason is the company is pressing for driver-facing cameras.”

    I noticed just yesterday that NS and CSX are installing stealth cams at intersections. The cameras look like oversized game cams, with solar panels. What they are, are cellphone cams, capable of livestreaming. They seem to be pointed, not just down the tracks, but in such a manner that they would capture both faces and license plates. These started showing up about two months ago, but aside from noting their existence, I didn’t pay attention because there’s a lot of track reconstruction and crossing repair going on in the Midwest ahead of snow season, and I figured the cams were there so the railroads could see who was stealing their stuff. Rails, ties, bracketing, crossing rubber are all gone now — cameras remain, and some are quite well hidden.

    I also noticed where several towns in Indiana are putting up sneak, red light cams. I’ve seen this in Illinois for years, and in Ohio for the last couple. I hadn’t seen any of it in Michigan, Indiana, or Kentucky, before now…

  16. Wasn’t ex-vice President Biden on hand and knees and about to beg Venezuela for more oil? Didn’t work out? Is that why he suddenly banned all Venezuela immigrants ? or – It did work out and part of the price is to try and keep their people at home?

  17. “No one will listen. But seriously – seems like security state bullshit to record sight and sound of every driver every shift doesn’t it?”

    I noticed in my local cstore, years ago, that the security system had 14 channels, but only two devoted to the outside (none on the pumps), one “robbery cam,” and SEVEN which only cover employee areas.

  18. Eye problems. Around 8/9 years ago I was diagnosed with mac. degen. and early stage cataracts. My specialist gave me 3 to 5 years before things got really serious.

    I did some research and saw that a Canadian co was experimenting with saffron as a cure/remedy for similar problems and I began taking saffron in a cup of tea every morning (I make up a batch to last a week; a generous pinch of saffron in warm to hot water, let it stand for 20 mins then re-heat a cup with a tea bag every morning)

    Since then, my eye condition has remained stable with annual visits to my optometrist showing ‘no change’. I mention this FWIW, obviously not medical advice.
    PS I use a well-known spectacle chain and the optometrists change on a regular basis. Only one had heard of saffron as beneficial treatment. The others were skeptical or non-committal with the attitude, ‘whatever you’re doing, keep doing it’.

    • Grow Ure own ?

      just received mail package from Canada – Richters with 10 Saffron Crocus bulbs. I didnt realize(pay attention) they were crocus flowers when I ordered them. Love the crocus flowers – one of 1st bloomers in Spring, smallish, low to ground..very pleasing sights to behold in Springtime.

      “The Bonus” – I planted em along front walk to front door of the BCN’s Casa De Crypto. Conversation piece as guest remark on the gorgeous little flowers gracing the walkway – the Bonus comes from picking the tiny lil stigmas – Da Spice ..its very colorful and No Paella is complete without the little yellow “threads”.
      Dbl Bonus – Like Horehound, the juice with wine and honey, helps to clear the eyesight. Pennyroyal boiled in milk. and drank..clears the eyesight. Angelica has proven therapeutic effects on the eyes as well.

      In fact Culpepper’s Complete Herbal lists over 15 Herbs beneficial in Eye care, and how to prepare/decoct them…

      Hope you get to enjoy growing Ure own medicine cabinet, you might even get motivated to learn the planets associated with each Herb and what influences are all about…

      * street reports regards Marijuana usage and improving eyesight…apparently users are reporting a phenomena whereby the more you smoke, the better your eyes feel and see…Ure results are sure to vary..

      Got Bitcoins..before the whole US dollar system implodes ?

  19. Here’s a good Labrador story that relates to Pitbulls.

    The instinct in this Labrador, Maverick took over its brain. The dog was on cruise control. Notice the people laughing because they misunderstand what’s happened. Instinct also happens in Pitbulls. But Pitbulls weren’t bred to point and instead of a laughable ‘malfunction’ the dog instinctively goes autopilot doing what it was bred to do.

    Vid @ bottom w/explanations.

    Caught on camera: Labrador terrified of Halloween decorations freezes in his tracks

    https://www.kens5.com/article/news/local/texas/caught-on-camera-labrador-terrified-halloween-decorations-freezes-tracks-texas-dog-canine/273-7244f7ab-9917-46f1-bf55-82dea6aa7a30

  21. For the love of god and humanity . Short the guts out of everything. I have gann fans and time and price everywhere about to blow up . Zones of crash dates .and we say we are scared ? Please

  22. That new guy put it so well how evil these animals are . Where is the great west Texas he would set you straight !! No gold signal none . Hui miles below . Short everything

  23. And 73 you being part of team guru America!!! You really think we don’t take out the recent lows . Tomorrow, next week, next year ? If you think that I think your stupid you are fing stupid . Spit in my face and tell me it’s raining

  24. All gurus vaccinated vegetables receiving signals from Klaus the c$nt. Are you sure 73 they didnt jab yah in hospital with your crook
    Ticker?

  25. No crash, no apocalypse, and the madmen are still in charge. It’s been a tough season for the disaffected, but don’t give up yet, our best minds are working grants to find final solutions for us all. They’re from the government, and they’re here to pocket your tax money and help make your paranoid delusions a reality. No need to invent mad conspiracies; it’s all out there on the front page of ZH.

  26. Mysterious GPS Disruptions Spread In Texas Near Fort Hood
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gps-signal-mysteriously-disrupted-around-dallas-airports

    Update (2053ET):
    GPS interference in Texas has spread from the Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area to now east and west regions of Waco, Texas.

    One area west of Waco with high levels of GPS interference is butting up against America’s third-largest military base, Fort Hood.

    I’m guessing that if this was due to the degradation of Earth’s magnetic field that Ben at S0 has been talking about the effects wouldn’t be so localized. – Bill

  27. Spin a big mohito
    And pig gut spray on em 73 . Fear em right up like the hard moose taught yah !!! Actually the best mohito I had was in
    Vegas at treasure island . I will never ever set foot in that sheet shop country again
    . Ram it hard

    • Lennster – get Ure ass over to Belize and throw me line, anytime.

      I will treat you to a Watermelon Mohito (100% homegrown ingredients) that will simply Take-U-Away..as you gaze out over Pool overlooking lagoon..while the dulcet tones of Bob Marley and the Wailers singing bout “Tree lil Burds”.. plays softly in the background..and No, that is not a Belizean skunk you will be smellin…

      Still no Bitcoins for Texas that “hiphop” artist – “MuleyG”

  28. Look
    At these pathetic priks selling the pump
    And dump
    To survive the depression. Depressions are so good . Ask
    Mark Twain . A smart non jabbed
    Septic tank

  30. Oh look, it’s Fauci, Peter Daszak, and the Boston 80% kill lab on the front page of ZH:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/surprise-ecohealth-landed-1-million-grant-work-80-mouse-death-boston-university-future

    Meanwhile, our brown shirt national leadership pretend that nothing was or is amiss. No gain-of-function research at the 80% lab. No danger to the general public. Midterms are approaching. Nothing to see here. Brown shirt collaborators. Cast your votes carefully.

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