Don’t be alarmed by the outburst of another volcano – this one in Guatemala over the weekend.  And it’s not too far south of the parallel that the Hawaiian volcano sits on, if you’ll notice.

In Guatemala, a couple of dozen dead from the Fuego volcano eruption.  And in Hawaii, the eruption on the Big Island is getting, well, bigger.

Instead, the “right thought model” to frame these events may be the pattern that accompanies an extreme in solar activity.  As in extremely none.

Let me back up a couple of years.  Pretend it’s 2014 and a serious scientist named John L. Casey has just published Dark Winter: How the Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell.  It’s a great book because it documents how the IPPC and other pro “climate-change” groups have missed (and suppressed) major findings about the Sun and how it’s cycles work; how they influence the crust of the Earth, and suggest we might want to be ready for such change.

Oh, also cited in this look-ahead?  Major increase in volcanism. Pacific volcanism to be precise.

Of course, if you’re not a geologist – and you’re being paid to come to a predetermined climate-change conclusion by virtue of the grant money “string” spent on climate – hearing about how the Sun operates at the macro-level is very, very heretical stuff.  Can’t have that, now, can we?

But, lo and behold, the book cites the forward-look from 2014 and even a simple mind (Ure’s) can see how the process works:  Sun cools down, and the crust of the Earth begins to shrink a bit.  Not overnight, of course:  Such things are actually offset from the nominal solar peak.

Instead, what changes first (air being less of a heat-sink than the crust), is weather patterns change.

This gets us to the first touchstone of what’s ahead:  Drought.  And boy, are we in it:

An odd things is happening – if you visualize the data in your head a bit:  If there is heating and drought around the 30-35-degree latitude regioin (heat would expand the crust a bit there) why is the volcanic activity centered down in the 15-20 degree latitude area above the equator?

We might notice something by looking at the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone).  Click Wikipedia to find this:

“The ITCZ was originally identified from the 1920s to the 1940s as the “Intertropical Front” (“ITF”), but after the recognition in the 1940s and 1950s of the significance of wind field convergence in tropical weather production, the term ITCZ was then applied.[1] When it lies near the Equator, it is called the near-equatorial trough. Where the ITCZ is drawn into and merges with a monsoonal circulation, it is sometimes referred to as a monsoon trough, a usage more common in Australia and parts of Asia. In the seamen’s speech, the zone is referred to as the doldrums because of its erratic (monotonous) weather patterns with stagnant calms and violent thunderstorms.”

Precisely to my point – once you got the idea of the ITCZ, take a gander at the satellite imagery of the region off Guatemala and the big blow-out over the weekend at Fuego:

Remember science from back in school days?  Clouds are usually around cooler air.  Oh, and you know where Guatemala is on the map, right?  Hawaii is just above where the ITCZ rolls west into the Pacific.

This morning, we received an update on the Solar Cycle Progression work by NOAA.  It shows we are in a deep – almost Sunspot-free – period of solar history.

The sun spot reductions have made ham radio operates a bit frustrated; sun.  The good news is the bands should be hopping again in…uh…120 years.

If John Casey’s book continues to be a better guide that climate hype by the hysterical Mainstream Media (and government which wants ever more tax money; what you can expect are more Pacific quakes.  And more flooding, too.  Like the disaster in Elliott City, Maryland a couple of weeks back.

Earth is a closed system, argue the climate change modelers.

Yeah…sure.  (Don’t tell ’em the solar system is a closed model, too.  And big usually trumps small.)

Market Rally or a FOREX Move?

Our next data SOR (searchlight of reason) falls on the Dow futures which were up 140 points early on. What do you think is going on?

Think currency shift.

Take a look at the futures and some of our charts at the bottom of this page.

Note that the Euro to Dollar ratio was 0.856 earlier.  But then it came down to 0.853,  This may not seem like a big deal, but when you are looking at markets in today’s world, it’s useful to remember that these are global markets.  Everything is geared to everything else.  Like an automatic transmission – for money.

Let’s do the math, then:  The markets are being traded with “money” (from the US perspective) that’s only “worth” 99.65 percent of its value of last Friday.

Since the Dow was 24,635 when things closed Friday, the market would be priced in the vicinity of (25,635 times .9965) or 24,548 based just on currency swings.  Around 90 points lower.

Of course, there is more driving it up:  Beginning of the month pension and 401K contributions pour in for the professional money manglers to mangle…so there’s a bit of upward pressure there, too.

But one of the FANG darlings – Facebook – is being bad-rapped in the news this morning for how “deep” they shared access to your personal data.  When a story like this hits in the NY Times, and it talks about “contradicting” what Congress was led to believe (they don’t use the term lying), it’s bound to take a little air out of the techs, I figure.

While the futures were up 128 in my most recent look-see, I’m expecting things will chill after the opening’s “amateur hour.”  The pro’s will make things more clear around 10:45 Eastern.

Factory orders come in at 10 this morning.  International trade and productivity Wednesday.  But the real action will come later in the month.  Fed meeting starts on the 12th with the rate hike (likely) next Wednesday (13th).

Greasy Trade Stuff

Two big items to be tracking in here:  But the short term job optimism matters as  Wall Street poised for higher open as jobs optimism outweighs trade  explains….

Here comes your cap on further oil price advances for a while as Oil down as U.S. supply grows, OPEC considers higher output. Also notice this which is related: Oil down as U.S. supply grows, OPEC considers higher output.

Unfortunately, the price of oil takes a while to work through the system.  So, between now and higher production we read Global airlines slash profit outlook as fuel costs jump.  Might want to think about FedEx and UPS rates – which are fuel-dependent, too.  And that could ripple to eBay sales net to sellers.

This still all ripples, like a struck bell.  Harmonics arise.

Adventures of the Dim Son

While the Trump-Kim chi is mixing in the headlines, North Korea replaces top military brass with younger officials ahead of US summit, reports say.

I don’t know about this kid:  Last thing I’d do is “shake up the staff” if I was going to be out of town for a week or two.  He should have done the distance-learning MBA, huh?

Radical Idiocy

As if you needed more proof?  Portland rallies turn violent as Antifa members clash with Patriot Prayer rally, four arrested.

We’ve been pretty consistent (and right) saying such antifa people aren’t really interested in actually helping anyone, except themselves…Just another node of digital mob rule that wants to be in charge.

Line’s at the voting station, kiddies.

Follow-up on Our Coping Piece

If you were wondering, would humans really kill aliens, given a chance?

Here’s a story just crossing that says Aliens are real, but humans will probably kill them all, new paper says.  My imagine that.

Cat Call

Finally, for Zeus the Cat (our mouse-potato), an outlook for a delayed retirement with  Word the oldest living cat turns 30.

As I’ve been explaining to Zeek, when he retires, that’s it. Natural automation will take his job.  Doesn’t need to be fed or watered.  Nature’s robotics at work.

We are happy with how the hawks are taking care of things.  Them, plus the feral cats around the woods all do a pretty fair job of keeping the vermin down.

I suggested if Zeus want easier vermin hunting and to feather his resume, he needs to send resumes east.  We need more cats in, oh, Washington, DC.  Plenty of vermin there.

Moron the ‘morrow…