Virus: Personal Trajectory Planning

by

Back to the “blocking and tackling” of being a prepper in the COVID world. But, a word first about how humans  generally fall into three categories of “time perception” because it really matters. 

An understanding of how people hear and how people speak (and therefore think and act) reveals much useful information.  From the top:

You’ve met people who are “Backward-Oriented.”  People who play songs from long ago, preferring “oldies” to tracking along with contemporary hit music. Not too many people are stuck in the past like this; perhaps only 20% of the country.  They will walk the “old wagon ruts” because it’s what they do.

Most are  “Now People.”  They go along with whatever the prevailing social mood is, climbing onboard with popular “causes” and they stay up (to some degree) with whatever is the Top-40 on radio.  In the “Now” these people are probably the middle 60 percent of the country.  Creatures of habit easy to manage.

Then there are Tomorrow People:  “Living in the Future” sorts. the kind attracted to UrbanSurvival.  If there’s one thing people come to this website for, it’s because both myself and most readers “Live 90-days in the Future.”  If there are ruts from the past, we avoid them.  If there is a habit, it’s challenged.  Often.

Tomorrow People as a group tend to be higher IQ, tend to look at History a lot deeper.  And as for music? Can you say “heavily mood-driven” and “best of class” audiophiles who range from Mozart to Marley and from Alternative to Zydeco?

Seeing 90-Days Out: Personal Trajectories

Future People are continually “modeling” what the next day, month, and years, will be.  Their mental dialog is a non-stop stream of “If this happens, then I need to be ready to…”  OR, “If that happens, I’ll need to change-up and….”

With COVID likely to break through a million cases globally before the weekend’s out, and coming to 50,000 global dead in short-order, the response of most Urban readers is to look at current data, do their own future projections, and then jump right into contingency planning and actions to address potential outcomes.

For them, The Future “cocktail napkin’s” sketches out like this:

This is how every morning since January has played out in my head.

With this Futuring Schema, I go through the exercise every morning and try to answer the question “What perspective do I have that may help people?”  What news should be highlighted and most-impacting of trajectories?

This is one of the major templates that guides our outlook.  The other is the “Colorado River Paradigm.”

The “Colorado River Paradigm” / Supply Chain Failure Model

I wrote this up in a column Sunday, but I failed to give you the “cocktail napkin” visual.  Let me fix that.

What you see below is how the supply chain used to work which was the Mississippi river model.  Before JIT and Just In Time Inventory, JITI) we had a deep supply channel (Mississippi) model that was far more robust than today’s:

In the current supply chain (where “deep distribution” has been killed because “inventory doesn’t pay interest”) is a single-point of failure waiting to happen:  The Mississippi model’s virtue was availability of a lot of product and that reduced the tendency sense/need to hoard.

PREPPING IS A RESULT OF JIT/JITI…are we the only ones to “get that?”

The problem with the “Colorado River” paradigm is that while it optimizes the financialization of the supply channel, it does so at the extreme cost of removing “peak capacity” and thereby reduces global resilience.

The Headwaters Problem

Concurrent with the change in the channel depth profile, and resultant peak capacity limits,  we (stupidly) allowed something else to happen in the furtherance of runaway financializations:  The “headwaters” of the supply channels moved to least-cost labotr countries.

Not only did the channel profile get narrower, but the river got longer…thousands of miles longer.

Which gets us to inspecting the toilet paper shortages more closely.  Since in 1960, virutally all of the U.S. toilet paper came from paper-making facilities in the U.S. and Canada.

That hasn’t changed.  Which is really good news: Because as long as the trucks are rolling and rail stock is in motion in the U.S. and Canada, the odds are very good that the current round of hoarding – which some claim was started as a social media meme launch by some teenager out in Hawaii – will pass in a while.  Except, of course, in Hawaii which doesn’t (so far as we know) make any toilet paper and they were late to the quarantine party.

There are hundreds of product “headwaters” that have gone to Asia and as these “supply chain rivers” go, the more distance from the end-user to source, the more dicey the channel becomes.  So, by looking at what the U.S. imported from China, 2018 figures believed to be accurate, our “soft under-belly” looks like this:

  • Electrical machinery ($152 billion),
  • Machinery ($117 billion),
  • Furniture and bedding ($35 billion),
  • Toys and sports equipment ($27 billion), and
  • Plastics ($19 billion)

Since Elaine and I try to operate our life out here in the Outback on a little more rigorously rational basis than “digital mob memery” of “big city delusions” we’ve not only been 20+ year preppers, but consider what we invested in recently:

  • We have “topped-off” our consumer electronics because ocean trade is likely to be impacted somewhere along the line.  Could be anywhere from the factories in Asia to the ports there, the ports here, tariff changes, to longshoring to trucking, to warehousing…well, you get the idea.
  • Machinery in general.  We have told you for years one of the best investments you can make in “forward survival” is in Chinese made machinery.  Witness today Ure being right.  There’s a 9X20 metal lathe, a modest vertical milling machine, assorted welding gear, plasma machine,and a sheet metal box and pan brake.
  • Ready to Make on Site:  There’s also a recent addition of 3D printers (and lots of filament) not to mention multiple sharpening machines for everything from knives to circular saws.  This because a rebuilding society doesn’t waste like we used to.  Anyone else remember the Foley-Belsaw Sharpening Shops?  I’ve got their book now.. Plentiful in the 1950’s in the still semi-rural America.
  • Furniture, did you say?  We’ve picked up courses on upholstery.  And for wood frames?  A new (made in China) mortising machine will make solid joinery into the future.  Powered by our 2007-2008 investment in solar independence.
  • Plastics…well, can’t hurt have that assortment of PLA and ABS filament and downloaded .STL files of some prepping items, now, can it?

How much food is imported from China?

Here’s a chart prepared by Su Ye of the Minnesota Department of Agriculture a couple of years back:  Look at the yellow highlights for hints as to what we’ve been “investing” in:

Don’t Focus Soley on China

Looking ahead for the U.S. supply chain, I think the right view is the global view and that will be driven by disease.  Your hint to “get ready” should have been the closing of the US-Canada border.  Few people, though, read headlines and “connect the dots.”

Now, Back to Trajectories

Best case is lowest probability.  Back to work by Easter has failed. For all the good-efforts of government and medicine, the odds of the virus petering out in the very short term seem to us quite low.  That’s reflected in our trajectory at the top of this page.

High liklihood – and this is a personal assessment only, not based on a numberically supported study – I figure we will be “in the thick of it” until about early June…perhaps to July.  That looks like the LZ.

Medium:  However, as more spot shortages occur, or if there is further disruption to supplies, then our “Medium” case rolls out into mid to late summer.  That might entail a 30-day shut-in period, but a follow-on period where episodic shut-ins (in “hot spots”) would continue, along with supply chain resupply issues into early fall.

Medium-Low:  The next level up – the medium-low – profile would be a “harder and longer” series of shut-ins with proportionately more supply chain damage and even slower recovery.

Above this is a “dashed line.”  This is one we don’t  like to think about, but it’s one that strategic planning demands:  Back to the early 1920’s.  What if things get worse.  As in much, much, worse.  Or, if there’s a short downturn and we get a recovery in early summer now, but then Wave 2 comes back with a vengeance?

Doom Porn Blinders

A couple of readers have suggested along the lines of “knock off the Doom Porn” about the disease.  Obviously, we don’t look at it this way at all.

The number of cases we projected in our earliest “doom porn” – for those dumb enough to call it that – was not bad and miles better than Federal estimates of progression which have been broad and unspecific as to be useless.

On the other hand, when we ran our projections almost two weeks ago, and shared them here, we called 543,026 for March 29.  The ACTUAL was 755,591.

WE WERE 39% LOW.  Only an idiot would label that doom porn.  A more accurate label was it was “very effing useful.”  There were no competing forecasts this close that I’m aware of in the timeframe.

Remedial Math Class

If you aren’t clear on how to use our past forecasts and compare them with present data, here’s all you need to know in three simple axioms because I use a simple, 5-day averaged linear projection:

  • If the current data is HIGHER than my forecast (for 3-days) then the virus is still accelerating. 
  • If the current dats is ABOUT at my forecast (again, for 3-days) then the virus has stablized in the growth rate.
  • If the current data is BELOW my forecast (3-day rule) then the virus spread is slowing.

There’s a hidden reason for my relying on simple 5-day linear projections.

It’s simply this:  You will see that I include both the “case factor” and the “death factor” (along with mortality rate) in my projections.

When the forecast and the actual are nearly the same, that’s about as good an esatimate of the virus growth rate as you will ever find, for a given level of public containment and public health countermeasures.

We don’t do “doom porn.”  We do this other thing:

Management Science

This is what our forecast looked like on stable afternoon data Monday:

 

And potential global deaths?

Of these, 1/25th would be U.S. deaths (3.24-million) if the distribution is even world-wide.  I don’t think it will be that bad, but it all depends on uniforming of shut-ins, how well countermeasures work, and on how many people can be helped by anti-malarial drugs.

To reiterate Monday, though, I hope Dr. Fauci is right on 200,000 dead tops.

The data argues he won’t be.

Back in a second with Housing data…

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

112 thoughts on “Virus: Personal Trajectory Planning”

  1. George, several people, including my wife, have accused me of always making pessimistic forecasts, which most of time turn out to be optimistic compared to what actually happened.
    So does that make me an optimistic pessimist or a pessimistic optimist?
    Keep up the good work.
    James Johnson, ex-nuke

    • I seem to recall either a post or quote on this site once upon a time that all the optimists ended up in concentration camps.

    • James everyone seems to be using a lot of P words lately: Pessimist, Paranoid, Panicking, etc. One everyone seems to be forgetting is PRUDENT! IMHO both you and George are being Prudent! Big difference from the other P words for sure. Be safe, watch your 6!

    • The pessimistic forecast is the right one from whats been trending. VA is shut down until June 10th. So Far. And Thanks George for this article. We have been fortunate to have had some advance warning on the arrival of this threat, making a beleiver out of my wife and given time to lay in supplies. Includes purchases of anticipated need for replacement parts for appliances and cars with a 12-24 month out look, brake pads ,lamps, fuses, spark plugs, oil filters, belts, oil etc. If they are even still available in three months they will certainly be much more expensive than they are today.

  2. This dead cat bounce looks to be almost over, assuming it is a dead cat bounce. I am going with a dead cat bounce. My assumption is based on the fact that things will get a lot worse before getting better, unless this whole thing is overblown, which would mean no second incentive check from your Uncle. A country not working but still getting paid creates bad habits, or not. Nothing is for sure.

    • This market is like Schrödinger’s cat, it’s both alive and dead at the same time. By the way, the cat’s name was Shady…hahahaha

      This is a $6 Trillion cat… bounce, kitty, pounce…

    • Well two things are for sure you can even take them to the bank and those are death and taxes,now there are a few other things for sure,and that’s the to big to fail and all their cousins have been notified, we are here to save you from your greed and stupidity here save your ass ,your checks are in the mail.!!!

  3. Hi George
    A few years back you had web site that was a military based future cast I think. It had numbers of ships, planes, nukes etc. It also projected the US dropping significantly in world status and population too if I recall. Curious as to what site it is and what current info it might contain.

    Thx

  4. Disruption of supply chains causing shortages in grocery stores. Toilet paper shortages; maybe because quarantined people are not using restrooms at work nor at restaurants. Same with food shortages; restaurants are closed so more people have to go to the grocery store.

    The large grocery stores are trying to hire extra people because more shelf stocking needs to be done.

    Oregon just put in no single use plastic bags law. Seems terribly unsanitary because store
    employees are touching lots of people’s bags and the bags are sitting on counter areas. Massachusetts cancelled their single use bag law last week over the corona virus.

    • That is a great point about Oregon. I live in Portland and just signed a petition to end evictions. In Oregon you can be evicted if you are 1 dollar short on the 13th day. The land owners have the laws on their side, it’s one reason why rent has risen so fast.

      But to my point: The local politicians here are the worst. They have been running around bad mouthing Trump while ignoring unsanitary bag laws, and yesterday Try-Met announced they will run fewer busses. So to FIGHT the virus, they pack MORE people into FEWER busses.

      Why on earth the people around here think they are so smart. I’ve never seen anyone once get ‘un elected’, even when they are the Mayer screwing teenagers in city hall.

      • Unfortunately, without the ability to evict, you make the scammer squatters superior in law to the property owner.
        Welcome to Russia…or Venez…

      • What I see…
        At this time the velocity of cash is at a stand still. The little bit that the feds are going to dole out is barely enough to pay for subsistence supplies.
        Other expenses will be juggled. So you have enough to buy groceries and if your nm lucky toilet paper at gold prices. Since the vast majority are not working things like rent..utilities etc. Will be skipped hoping that they can get back to work before the eviction..taxes are still due those to will be skipped. The landlords just like the tenants has expenses.. they to will be forced to juggle..and their payments as the tenant will be juggled.
        The logical answer is not a good answer..since it would require a whole different approach. Put a temporary halt to all. No interest no expense.. do it for a short period of time like two months.. it would be a two month free rent no utility Bill’s no payments due.. no fees..cash free.. a cease to all activity and handing out war time script for exchange for commodities.
        At present two thirds of the work force will be delinquent on the daily expenses. Tbe way I see it The velocity of compound interest will bury the country and force the death roll spiral..
        The velocity of cash was at a very delicate stage before this incident will more than likely force huge changes in our way of lives..
        There are only three choices.. go big . Dont do anything let everyone fend for themselves ( which is similar to what they are doing now. Throw a few crumbs ) or pretend it doesnt exist and let everything return to normal let the chips land where they fall..
        The situation as I see it will start a cascade collapse if something cant be done to stop the compounding delinquency that will begin tomorrow.
        Any bottom feeder catfish knows very well how this works. Been there done that.
        It’s exactly the same as those that have gone without.. I had a social worker once ask me why I was the way I am.. I said you obviously havent ever gone hungry or scared for your children to have enough to eat.. since this started that fear has set in.. and now I am getting a few questions on how to proceed from this point on..
        It’s why everyone that went through the depression was the way they are. It’s why the mormons decades later suggest being ready..

    • Hahhahaha! Bob came on the radio exactly when I read Bob Marley. hahahahahahha! As you know my comments were posted before I read this column. Hahahha!

      Doom porn? As osterage shoves its head back in the dirt! Hahahah

      Dude! Stop Harshing my mello!

      Excuse me, for talking about the reality of our situation. **All the worlds religious temples, churches and place closed their doors. Thats never happend in the recorded history of man before. These arent unprecedented times. There is your cluepon!

      Not everyone who awakens to the present or future is a “morning person.” I understand that. Some are just grumpy. Sometimes I want to say, “Good morning pudding, here, Have a hot cup of STFU.” Bill Clinton sent ya to Urban survival in mental uber. Or is that Bill Cosby? *shrugs.

      ******** Uhem. I have an idea if anyone is interested and wants. to participate. It would require a 5 minute timer. Mostly because alot of people on here including myself are quite frankly long winded af.

      Anyone on here interested in doing a once a week Zoom meeting??? For an hour. Hour? Hour and a half tops?

      If we cut it down to 5 minute shares? Everyone should get a chance to speak their mind.

      You can download the app on your phone and log in to have a live video and Audio meeting. You can mute, or not do the Video portion. It would be cool to put a face to the name.

      Unless Ure all a different version of George’s mutiple personality disorder. Hahaahahahhaha! I have thought of that before. I dont discount everything no matter how far out it may seem. Hahahahahahaha!

      Anyway, Probably have to put someone on charge of the timer, and someone else to host it.

      Like a weekly review of discussions here and other topics. Nobody would know your number or any of that stuff. I also think that the Host would remind everyone to not go on Huge political rants and if you are over the 5 minutes, interviene. Maybe at one minute left, let the person who has the floor know to wrap it up.

      I have done a few Zoom meetings and will see about setting it up. IF there is enough interest. It’s pretty cool. After all we are all part of the Urbansurvival S.O.C. a scociety.

      Just an idea.

      Lmk!

  5. George, I believe your Supply Chain Model is spot on and is the Dust Bowl of the 2020 deep depression. Wife and I sold our house two years ago, which meant I had to pack up my shop. Wife wanted me to get rid of all my tools (40 plus years of collecting and working with) I could not do it. We ended up buying a home with a shop in the backyard. I have been spending the last two weeks unpacking. It was then I realized the US is going to run out of all types of fasteners (nails, screws, nuts, and bolts) sooner than later, and when that happens, the dust bowl will be here.

    • “Wife wanted me to get rid of all my tools (40 plus years of collecting and working with) I could not do it.”

      I am right with you on that one.. rather than sell them.. I gave them to the grandkids I would rather see them build something than to let someone get em for nothing….. ( see my rant on my pocket hole jig LOL.. when it is already given away I shouldn’t be complaining about not having it where I keep it LOL)

  6. G –

    This mornings rant brings a smile to the face of this deplorable..”Doom Porn” hahaha These people need to have a glass window installed in their stomachs – so they can actually see out in front of them from whence they have their craniums shoved.

    We are in the middle of a WAR that is been “Hot” since “Orange Man Bad” took office.

    Rabbit Hole – 2.0

    BO was supposed to “descend” back in April..18th to be precise. Unfortunately for the “darkened ones” – “celestial fire from the side of the west” (tr3b mounted carbuncle) lite the temple of isis on fire, 3 days prior to romured mass execution of children (666 to be precise) by a “black witch/queen” down in the catacombs . Thereby shifting TIMELINES! The great plan(EVIL) was dealt a brilliant blow..

    “Orange Man Bad” told the World we are at WAR with an Invisible Enemy(principalities of darkness) and have been attacked. Appears attack was designed to kill off as many OLD people as possible – prior to Forced Socialized Medicine – step by step, inch by inch..

    Or Not – just the deranged rantings of a madman..

      • Backward -Definitely in music, Now-Trying to placate the people around me Tomorrow- Why I’ve been a subscriber for several years. I also subscribe to analysts in other countries and have a more pessimistic view than even you have.

        I appreciate your now picture of the future based on math basics. They have been largely correct, but as you said, and as I told my wife yesterday, a quick acting drug protocol for killing the virus in the host would be a game changer. ( But what is the primary supplier of the drugs in play?) This is why Trump is pushing and prodding and is a doer, cut the tape!

        Most people are watching the Magician’s active hand — the virus and political BS. I’m watching the hand under the table. Nice oil/gas price, but what is the effect on fracking, the largest supplier of oil in the US and about to go bankrupt? And the Fed with a 5 Trillion dollar balance sheet?

        And car sales? And Railcar movement? And Airline bookings? And Political theater?

        And locally, Georgia is becoming a large number of active Corona-virus cases. Can we thank the Atlanta Airport for this? Georgia’s Presidential Primary was scheduled for April16th, moved to May 19th, but it is being considered for a June date. How can elections be considered if voters cannot be able to vote? And what is the medical state of the President and Vice President? Can we support The Speaker of the House, Pelosi as President?

        As you can attest, speaking the truth is not always accepted by others. At times, we have to hide the truth. My family has heard me say, Plan for the worst, Hope for the best. Be Prepared.

        Thank you for all your effort to keep the truth front and center. Watch the hidden hand.

  8. Have we considered the usual yearly virus? They tell us that it starts early in some far off area and then slowly works it’s way to the US in the fall and winter. Or is it a second wave of the present virus? My head hurts, Is that a symptom?

  9. Dam Dam Dam… working on some garden planters and you know. I cannot find my pocket hole jig setup.. I only own three of them.. and of course I let someone use it a while back and now I cannot find the dang thing..
    https://www.kregtool.com/store/c13/kreg-jigsreg/p34/kreg-jigreg-k4/

    I suppose I will have to go get another one.. I have to get some screws and some more glue anyway. just bugs the heck out of me that another one hits the dust and its one of my most used tools LOL…..especially when I want to get the garden planted and have to get these planters built…. ( I have to use raised bed.. when I built the house the contractor took a huge chunk and ran leaving me short.. I do have a hammer that could compete with what the govt. would pay for one.. this one just at ten thousand.. ( the contractor left it.. ) )

    • Firehouse free-style it: Start with a perpendicular hole, go in 1/16th inch, slowly (drill still turning) eyeball the right angle.

      No jig needed.

      And after you mess up enough, you’ll get a feel for it. Save a fortune in jigs.

      • I found the jig..all I had to do is ask the grandson where it was… did five grow beds in an hour… now to line with tin and stain..brace and fill with dirt..

  10. George, you had a couple of readers point out your “doom porn” and it’s obvious that it bothered you for the last 24 hours and just like Trump, you’re compelled to double down on your positions and then call names. It becomes even more apparent why you’re so adamant in your defense of Trump, threatening anyone with sanctions including expulsion for even speaking their mind. While it challenges your view of the world and more than that, you’re view of yourself, a wise man recognizes a thread of truth exists in nearly all things. It’s a dangerous thing when we become so sure of ourselves that we’re unable to even tolerate let alone embrace a dissenting view. But you do you, occasionally I still find a nugget and lately, in your readers comments.

    • Look, I don’t have any problem criticizing Trump (lots of soil in that garden).

      But the con job of impeachment? Nope. There’s a line that crosses from criticism to insurrection and I see a handful of self-important lefties running a plan to take down America.

      M aye you don’t see or can’t fathom that.

      But maybe Urban is easier than a trip to a real eye doctor, lol

  11. Covid-19’s meant to be a new Black Death, but in Britain no more people are dying than NORMAL. What does this say about the virus?

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/484548-coronavirus–people-die-outcome/

    “Risk of dying”

    “Understanding this requires a bit of lateral thinking, but it helps to remember that everyone on Earth has a terminal disease: being alive. We all have to go sometime.”

    “Recording exactly how and when we do is a big part of the job of statistician Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter. In a recent blog post, he outlined the concept of background risk. This is obtained by recording all of the people dying in any given year, at any given age. At its most simple, this is the percentage chance a person has of not reaching their next birthday, based solely on their age. Of course, that is not to say that if you are a 40-year-old man you have precisely a 0.2% chance of dying this year – the data are based on averages, and do not apply to individuals.”

    ……..

    “He told R4 that his findings showed, to his own professed astonishment, that if someone contracts the coronavirus, they’ve got almost exactly the same chance of dying over the ensuing few weeks as they would normally have of dying over the next year, no matter what their age or background health.”

      • One anticipates the cause of death ascribed to the elderly in the UK will increasingly be “old age” if PM Boris’ alleged notion to have the public National Health Service withhold covid19 treatment from that demographic gains traction.

  12. Germany sees 4-digit jump in Covid-19 cases to 61,913 as death toll nears 600

    So reads the latest headlines.

    So that is a death rate of less than 1% (0.969101804%)

    Why the difference between there and Italy?

    • Italy signed on to China’s “belt me in the mouth” initiative. Northern Italy is flush with Chinese workers. Germany is 3-4 weeks behind Italy and Spain — give it time…

  13. An article this morning claims NYC is facing a catastrophe because they have had 450 Coronavirus deaths since January & someone is dying every 17 minutes.

    So you know—regularly, NYC has 419 deaths every single day & loses a person every 9 minutes.

    Just for perspective.

  14. 5 yrs ago we bought 5 acres 2 hrs outside major city. On a gravel road. Time to retire there.
    Wrapping things up where we are & starting the process. Believe by Sept the USA will be in the thick of it

  15. Quintessentially, we knew and know better,
    but we didn’t and don’t do what’s better ;-(.

  16. “Looking ahead for the U.S. supply chain”

    I am curious… from my ground level perspective and from listening to those that are on farms talk.. there seems to be a concern on how they will handle the spring planting.
    Where will the finances CV come from.. ( not all farmers are incorporated or big company farms )
    Where will the seeds come from?
    Since so much of our food is imported will the govt. Make demands.. like this year you’ll grow tomatoes or lettuce..

  17. From news services…
    “The surge we have been anticipating has not yet come,” Dr. Jahan Fahimi, an emergency physician and medical director at the University of California, San Francisco, told CNN. “We’re all kind of together holding our breaths. San Francisco issued the country’s first shelter-in-place order well over two weeks ago, and officials hope it is paying off.

    This SIP works folks…and if every state would take this as seriously as we have, the US could be on a plateauing to downward trajectory. This is model for the rest of the country to look towards because we were very vulnerable. That’s because we have nearly 8 million in a 10 County area, three very busy international airports that had the highest number of travelers in an out of China and other affected Asian countries.

    Of the 85 million travelers in Bay Area airports, nearly 30 million are international. Our exposure is greater and our density in the urban core of SF, Oakland and San Jose is comparable to New York yet our numbers are a fraction of theirs because we got nearly a month head start. More disturbing is New Orleans and the state of Louisiana. Their numbers are higher than California’s and they have a tenth of the population.when San Francisco was the first to cancel all sporting events and crowds over 10 people, New Orleans was hosting a Mardi Gras. Watch for Florida numbers to exponentially escalate due to idiotic spring breakers defending on an area with the highest number of retirees over the age of 65 in the country. There were a lot of mistakes like this because there were conflicting messages from the top on whether or not this was real or not. They should have listened to George. He was on this a quarter ago.

    Back to the Bay Area…We were wearing masks, social distancing and sanitizing way before the SIP in early to Mid February. I mentioned that on your site George and got blasted by a few readers for our region over reacting. Bottom line… We flattened the curve and that has had a positive affect on our overall health and well being. I wish our [redacted – went political/judging – otherwise a great post-G].

    • AFAIK SF was not nearly the first place to issue a SIP order, although they may have been the first to call it that. Where SanFran DID do something brilliant was when they got all the sidewalk sh!tters off the streets and under roofs, in a controlled environment.

      The Bay Area still scares the crap outta me, because of all the overseas travel. Time will tell…

      Be careful…

  18. I will be headed for Wal-Mart tonight to check the supply line situation. Since we are homeschooling 3 grandkids, the daytime is full.This is not how I planned retirement. In my next life, I am not having any kids. Thanks Corona for the challenge.

  19. Government is so desperate to keep the bubble going, they’ve changed 401K rules.

    This change means other 401K rules are flexible…. Don’t forget we are in the lowest interest rate/lowest tax rate economy ever. Everyone but government employees is now on the government dole. A bill is coming at some point.

    Congress will let you take $100,000 from your 401(k). Should you?

    – You would be able to make the withdrawal without the 10% penalty that normally applies to those who are under age 59½.
    – You’d still be on the hook for any income taxes on the amount.
    – The measure would give you three years to pay those taxes and replace the money you took out.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/congress-may-let-you-take-100000-from-your-401k.html

    • One must look beyond the right hand, master Oows. But allowing the increased take-out from the 401-K’s does not the other hand of government see reduction in pension liability down the road?
      There is, grasshopper, a great T-Account in Life, for balance must be maintained.
      On the backs of its people.

  20. Morning G
    I have to comment on your mortality rate figures. If you look at charts of older “plagues”
    you will find that mortality is based on completed figures. That means number of cured,
    added to number of dead, divided by number of dead (cases with outcomes). If you use that way of computing the figures, they play as such: 215,189 outcomes, 40,735 deaths. That pencils out to a 19% mortality rate, and that’s including the figures that China lied about.
    These figures are becoming apparent as you see news stories such as the number of urns China has been ordering:
    https://nationalpost.com/news/world/lines-of-urns-in-wuhan-prompt-questions-of-chinas-pandemic-death-toll

    If those figures were out there, people would be taking this a lot more seriously.

      • I was just in a small market that my friend opened for his daughter..
        Nice place full shelves all faced. It was wonderful. They had my favorite braggs apple cider vinegar with the mother..
        I was forced into disclosing my recipe for sweet apple cider that I mix the vinegar with. but hey it was worth it..
        They had a full shelf of tp to. Said that the panic buying is finally dying down..

    • Chris, it’s a methodology I favor, but understand with a working pandemic there are actually three categories: Dead, cured, and in-limbo. Because there is no guarantee of the percentage of cases in limbo which will either resolve as “cured” or “dead,” the statistician can not ignore the largest category, but can’t honestly place those in this category in any other category… and yes, I am saying the NIH talkers and the “news” writers are dishonest — the former out of benevolence, the latter out of ineptitude — goosing the stats by lumping ALL living into one category. It is called “social optimism” and while not honest, does have a positive psychosomatic effect on the target population.

      In actuality, CV-19 is nonexistent in the aboriginal regions of Africa, Australia, and South America, and northeastern Siberia. However, if/when it reaches those areas, it may kill in excess of 90% of the populations. When all the numbers are in, CV-19 may kill 0.8% or less in Israel, the U.S. and Canada, and in Russian / Western European nations which have top-flight medical researchers, and 80%+ in areas which have primitive or non-existent modern medical facilities. We won’t know until the situation resolves itself and the closing bell rings…

  21. Keep going G___. Is there a way to access your website with a direct IP address? I used to keep up with this sort of thing, but haven’t had the time lately. I still keep a Google direct IP address in my favorites. I’m probably overdue to track down some IP addresses of useful sites again, unless someone does it for me.

  22. Here are couple of post SIP thoughts. It’s going to a while before people are comfortable with business as usual. Here are a few changes I see ahead.

    -Commercial Real estate vacancies and subsequent price per sq ft decreases.
    As employees get used to the work at home and Zoom video meetings, offices will not be as in-demand…(I do 8 Zoom conferences a week and I absolutely think they are 10X better than being there). Of course, in high tech and scientific industries, you still need face to face collaboration and equipment, but service industries…not so much. But as PPSF decreases, offices may go away from open concept office space to more private enclosed offices and individually HEPA filtered cubicles.

    -Gyms and work out facilities are out…Outdoor bootcamps with proper social distancing, outdoor running, biking, home Peloton equipment and Zoom workouts at home are in.
    Sweaty, hot gyms that have ellipticals, weights, Spin bikes and treadmills are a Petri dish of germs and bacteria. In the Bay Area, they were the first to close. I canceled my membership back in January after we were made aware of the virus. I prefer to run anyway, but also enjoy home work-outs mirrored on our TV with my wife.

    -Restaurants emerging as take-out only and city sidewalks in warm weather cities encouraging public and spaced outdoor dining.
    That already exists in the urban core with the very popular food truck parks and Off the Grid offerings. Watch this explode in the coming months. California has some of the most awesome food truck food in the world, many started by Michelin starred chefs. Our weather helps with that.

    – The end of multi-plex movie theaters and a renewed surge in drive-in movie theaters and of course streaming at home.
    Social distancing is the key here. I never really liked movie theaters that much anyway. They are always too cold and there is always the chance you may have to sit next to a talker or fidgety person that ruins the experience. The best seats are always in the middle too. And if I will go to great lengths to avoid a middle seat on an airplane, why would I want one in a dark, cold theater?

    -Entertainment at home technology will surge in Moores law X2 fashion.
    Here in the Silicon Valley, they already are working four generations of products ahead off where what we see in stores today. Look for tech to skip a generation or two to re-boot retail and excitement. For instance, post SIP, are we really looking afraid to the iPhone12 with its minor advances? Give us iPhone 14 or 15 that blows us away. Look for the same in TV, Virtual Reality, Virtual Integration, and Augmented Reality.

    -The rise of the machines.
    The less human touch the better? Of course humans still have to make robots, and that will keep us employed for the next 20-30 years…but initial human touch on a robot that makes a product is still safer. You can chemically sanitize a machine more frequently and without any skin rashness or complications.

    -Growing your own.
    Yes, gardens/micro farms will be back. They already are out west. The one unknown at this point is…can COVID19 be spread to livestock? Livestock is not immune to disease as we all know..Will this have an affect on the meat industry at all? far fetched maybe…but I am vegan and folks it’s pretty terrific.

    -Rust belt exodus.
    Seasonal Affective disorder is a real thing. I have it. It’s a big reason why I moved from the Midwest to California 21 years ago. Some call it cabin Fever, but whatever, this virus and all viruses spread faster in enclosed environments. Watch people start to move to the southern and western states so that they can spend their winters outdoors and not 4 months of Shelter indoors. One of the reasons why California’s COVID19 numbers are low is that we can and have spent most of our time in the fresh air in our back yards, porches, decks et. and are not stuck inside. Being inside can be stressful, which lowers the effectiveness of our immune systems. As a counter measure to the greatest best exodus, I can see major Northern metros building bio-domes. See St. Louis’ Climatron, inspired by Buckminster Fuller. 70 feet high and a half acre of plants. Bigger, more extensive domes could be built to relieve that affects of S.A.D. and hopefully get people out of the circulating air of the indoors.

    -Virus destroying air filters.
    With problems come opportunities. A new industry is always around the corner. Watch a new President tout “:a garden in every yard and an anti Viral air filter in every home.” Hell of a lot better slogan than “chickens in every pot…”

    -Clean air initiatives.
    Forget global warming. It isn’t real…but air quality or lack of it is. I wouldn’t doubt one bit that we are more susceptible to disease because our immune systems are not running on a full tank. Our air quality may have something to do with it. If what we breathe in is tainted, then our immune systems are compromised. Buy Tesla stock. Invest in solar, hydro and other renewable energy.

    -We are what we eat.
    Will people finally realize that a chicken sandwich between two glazed donuts is not good for you and will do more harm to our health? Invest in health food companies. They will be the new bulk item at Costco.

    -There are about a million more items but I probably have a word count these days, due to my Trump rants…But it’s a start…be free to ad more folks!

    • NOTE TO MARK-haters:

      It’s this kind of damn-fine analysis that makes me proud we still have a fairly open-filter on this site. I found it all useful…and that’s what we’re here for. Find out where we’ve been launched and where the LZ might me…

      • Don’t forget that paper money will be phased out[dirty virus carrying media] and replaced with NFC payments at the POS terminal pressed against the plexi glass using your favorite CC or Smart Phone.

      • “NOTE TO MARK-haters:”

        I know I sure appreciate his perspective on everything.. a little left leaner but heck so am I at times.. his perspective is from the angle above mine so he see’s things differently than I do.. Which makes all of his comments extremely important since I only have the opportunity to see the view from a different angle if someone is willing to share their point of view.. Mark is smart he’s quick and sharp as a tack.. His point of view should in my opinion be held in high regard… (even if you don’t adhere to his opinion it is important to see it from his angle on life) JMHO

      • All the liberal rags (all media) have been spewing what mark sells for DECADES, LOOB, come on get out of your box once in a while! It’s nothing new….and nothing he shared is that remarkable! Give me some Chemtrails for $the stars, Alex, do you think it could cause some of that FU’p pollution? Why BINGO/DING/DOUBLE whatever!!!

        Come on, listen to this lady, classic liberal, until they came for HER, then she decided to have a change of heart/mind and income generator (think of how well she was compensated for her part in destroying Education across the developed nations, Western Civilization, etc., the WHITE male, the NUCLEAR ,FAMILY, etc.) She reveals all, and STILL she is successful and RICH!!!

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asQ8KFrZY84

    • Mark: All good points & ones that I would agree with if the cause was internal & and caused by the way we were living in this country. If the virus was our fault based on the hygiene of our country, what you said would surely come to pass. But, it appears this virus is a result of tainted bat soup in Wuhan China, & this is not China’s first time contaminating the world. I would think the direction we would go, & hopefully will, is to reduce our dependency on China & their poor eating habits.

    • @MARX

      and ‘we’ are going to do this with the same bankers and politicians….I THINK NOT…

      for THEY have just taken 6 TRILLION DOLLARS..(gonna ask for more)….and soon the credit markets dry up and the dollar crisis replaces the ‘virus’ as the next deadly…..make you shelter -in-place PLAN_DEM-IC…

      2 more months of NO INCOME…and the only thing coming on ‘outside’ will be riots and carnage….so I guess I disagree with your ‘brightness’….

  23. George, I like your description about people that live 90 days in the future. When you do, figuring out the next 30 days can be easy, if not pleasant. Particularly if you have some basic critical thinking skill, plus follow some of the better writers and thinkers – several of whom post on this site. Ok, it doesn’t hurt if you can meditate too, and do what I call “Spiritual Listening.”

    The next 30 days of course would be the month of April. No politicians, no blame, and no statistics. LoL – and no religion!

    Picking up a clear and consistent line of thinking, based upon observations from all the major news events of 2019 and comparing them to historical cycles and analysis provided by people like Ureself, WarHammer, and G. A. Stewart: It is pretty easy to draw the conclusion that we went to war with China around the end of 2019. ALL of the global news and events since then follow that line of thinking, and do so without having to make wild ass swings at blaming politicians or fudging statistics or whining about toilet paper shortages – or counting the daze until the country “Opens” up again.

    Which means April will bring us China’s Retaliation. That is the most important concept to noodle, and figure out how best to stay a couple of steps ahead of the agencies and events that will bring personal destruction to your doorstep. (By agencies that includes US Government 3 letter agencies as well as military forces from anywhere in the world.)

    If I were a Chinese Military Planner, I would have a 4-5 stage attack prepared for a certain day. My attack would be full spectrum, ranging from coastal sabotage to market manipulation to bio, chem, EMP, and nuclear weapons deployed/employed across the USA. Earthquake, weather, scalar, tsunami (etc) weapons not out of the playbook either.

    What is that Certain Day to launch an attack? Easy: The day President Trump “Opens” the United States for business, and starts the band playing MAGA songs. “America Strong” pep rallies, and all that. I’d give the “Open” a day or two to flourish, and let Americans spread out all over and head off to work, vacations, reunions, conferences, etc. Then drop the hammer.

    The forward thinking among us would of course load up on a few more essentials than just toilet paper and PPE. Decontamination (CBRN) will probably be the new buzzword to replace “flattening the curve.”

    Our Paradigm changed just before Christmas last year. Study history. Read and noodle deep thinking analysis. Plan for a very different future. Make “cognitive dissonance” your most hated expression.

    Let’s build a new world, and make it glorious! Forget about patching up the old dysfunctional one – it was way beyond broken.

    Sigh… and tell Andy he better go back to that wealthy woman, and accept her offer!

    • From the perspective of my former military experience. I have this concept on my short list of possible outcomes . I cant tell you how many times current events such as this have been” gamed” as a prelude to a kinetic response. Some of the posturing Ive been seeing and activities being implemented by entities as reported in media, are a response to same. Let’s hope that all Leaders involved are cooperating, and whether this was deliberate or by sloppy accident, hope that this was not authorized by as part of a larger state sponsored plan…. 50/50 odds.

    • ” It is pretty easy to draw the conclusion that we went to war with China around the end of 2019.”

      …Problem is, they went to war with us in, like 1979.

      “If I were a Chinese Military Planner, I would have a 4-5 stage attack prepared for a certain day”

      The Chinese Military all read Sun Tzu.

      They have undoubtedly gamed thousands of attack and war scenarios against the U.S., as we have, them. ‘Doesn’t matter. The most-efficient way to wage war is to do so without ever firing a shot. The Chinese may be living under an inefficient political system and hierarchy, but the people themselves form a highly-efficient society…

    • Strange how people can’t seem to get it thru their heads that no no one is going to attack us,Its been a great play to demonize this one or that one,now China is not going to attack us but it might be the other way around,now we are heading into a depression like 1929 and it wasen’t until the second world war that we came out of it, now what odds would you give with all the loose cannons in Washington that it might repeat itself,as they seeing the exceptional country going down the tubes.!!!

      • Never say “never.”

        I’m seeing and hearing a huge groundswell of “get us out of China” and “bring manufacturing back to the USA” type memes — ‘Seems the common folk had no idea their meds came from China and now they’re scared the ChiComs could cut us off. If the sheeple in other places begin to realize this also, the huge influx of both capital and intellectual property which has found its way to China over the past 25 years, could come to a screeching halt coincident to the resolution of the coronavirus pandemic.

        If that happens, and considering the other plagues hitting the Sino Mainland (SARS, locusts, and about a half-dozen others) the ChiComs are going to get slammed with a hungry, POd peasant crisis like they haven’t seen since Mao’s extermination marches, and Xi won’t be able to buy the nation’s way out of it ‘cuz the Party will be bankrupt (and the ROW had a suck growing season, last year.) D’you think THAT, and the motivation to join the military and not starve, might key China to start a war with, well frankly, ANYBODY, just to kill off a bunch of eater/breeders, if nothing else?

  24. Overall I think your 6%+- rate is WAY too high for developed countries for precisely the reasons that have been in the press for ages: ie: the NON COUNTING of non-symptomatic people in the official numbers, including in some countries in Europe (in other words NOT just in China) – AND the dynamic that even symptomatic people who do NOT get the actual test are NOT counted in the numbers of infected (again what is happening in Europe as well as what happened in China. (before anybody gets too smug remember the same thing has been happening in the US too)

    The higher Death Rates WILL be skewed to the less developed but heavily and densly populated countries, … ie: think India as #1, combines with the dynamics above and the US death rate should be BELOW 1% of all of those infected, possibly below 1/2 of 1% or even lower.

    For places like India however the infection will run rampant through the population and with poor to no medical care the death rates “could” reach, and even top, 6% (ditto other very densly populated countries with poor health care systems).

    I would project that the most deaths for this phase of the pandemic WILL be in India, maybe close to 1/2 of all the worldwide deaths that will be experienced. Other “at risk” places include the slums of Africa’s mega cities, the slums of the biggest cities in South America, and the other usual suspect places in the Far East (Pakistan, etc.)

  25. My wife,and 17 yr. old put up with me in rural Alaska engaged in the “off grid ” lifestyle. Water “walks in and run’s out” unless it’s summer and heat by a wood stove, propane cookstove. My wife homeschooled and raised a quiver of 5 “sharp arrows”. We have the 5 gallon bucket system to support the igloo’s on the sinks, walk in pedestal shower(p trap on floor) and the flush toilet.
    Logistics is an integral part of my paradigm and physical conditioning. Yes I have a strong back. Costco is 100 miles away, Fred Meyer,60 miles.
    Our log cabin became from working at the local hardware &store where I was the yardman and delivery driver (materials-cost +10%). Logs were “levitated”off our 5 acres.
    My oldest son who should be released from quarantine in Quangdong province on 04/01 stripped all the logs with a beast of a drawknife back in ’02.
    So,the effects of this Mayhem is up close and personal.
    I encourage people to pray to receive a vision for the future or we perish for lack of knowledge.
    Necessity is the mother of invention- so George, more spare time for constructive innovation? I’m giving that a shot, I’ll keep y’all posted(24 years of Hook ‘Em Horns).
    Oh ya, no property tax here(up to a 220,000 exemption) once you clear the 65 high bar, such a good feeling, after 2 cuppa’s of course ! And my gym is just outside,where accidents are 2nd leading cause of death. Safety gear cannot be overstated. And we always have a back-up plan or resources. And you always watch your backside!
    Cya, from the land where we newbies have been self-isolating for 59+.

    • RFO – and say hi to the mega-skeeters for me. 2 almost carried me off near Fairbanks in ’68. Put on weight since as a safety measure
      No such worries Outside in the second biggest state. Keep the title and the bugs

  26. George,

    History is full of military and other disasters that started with either battle field commanders out running their ability to be resupplied….or with the supply lines being too long. You’re 100% spot on. Not only do we depend on far too many other nations to get to cheap labor, but there’s far too much ocean between us and them.

    MAJ13

    • Who was it that said…
      If you control the supply lines you control the country…

      I once overheard a senator tell another candidate to tell the people anything. A 123 speech that the people are dumb as sheep.. the sad part about that is that what he said was all true.
      We’ve had puppeteers pulling the strings of our representatives that dont even live in this country or pay taxes here.. we allow our representatives be corrupted legally. And none of it’s new. It’s all a cycle that has destroyed civilization after civilization for thousands of years. The cycle of corruptive greed.
      What I find funny is it could all have been stopped at the voting booth. We haven’t anyone to blame but ourselves.

      • It was Kissinger who said, “Control oil and you control nations, control food and you control the people.”

        Brzezinski said: “Today, it is infinitely easier to to kill a million people than to control a million people.”

        “Today, it is infinitely easier to to kill a million people than to control a million people.”- Zbigniew Brzezinski, imperialist/globalist/war-monger, former policy advisor to Obama, CFR and Trilateral Commission founder, lamenting about how the global political awakening is making it increasingly difficult to sedate/exploit and the masses.

  27. what if this covid-19 can be carried with no symptoms (it can)
    and those that are asymptomatic continue to spread it without knowing it (they are)
    and the end result is all the population that has pre-existing conditions (and are not taking precautions to prevent contracting it) continue to become infected until the bulk of the aging population are removed. Should be a windfall for health insurance, and a large payout on life insurance. Sounds like a plan.

    • The issue is..those that survive the virus then become the weakest link.. to be the ones taken down the second time around
      It also from what I’ve read distroys lung tissue weakening endurance. If this is just a virus and not distributed by a spore then the best plan is quarantine.

      I spoke to someone a couple days ago in the know the said testing on an area cleaned a month ago still came up with active virus.
      It totally had them baffled.

  28. I see we now have over 180,000 cases of the virus and they say its only the beginning,one aircraft carrier is begging for help as they too have many infected.MoonofAlabama site has a good article up today as to hows its spreading, as it seems we have the highest number of cases in the world,Trump and Putin discussed the outbreak here and you may soon see one of Russia’s heavy transports bringing in much needed medical equitment and the people to use it.!!

  29. Unless its blocked by the republicans in congress with Mitch and Cotton leading the way,only time will tell but I have no faith in congress at all unless there’s a payday for them it.!!!

  30. Correction- my wife just mentioned our eldest son has an extended quarantine to 05/01. Sorry, no 04/01 intended.

  31. A couple of more Post Pandemic scenarios.

    -Build Elon Musks Hyperloop.
    Unless you fly first class, airplanes are a pain the the butt way to travel. Cramming 200 people in a 2,200 sq ft cabin is insane when you think about it. Put 200 people in an average home of 2,200 sq ft and various levels of wellness and see how comfortable that is. It’s not. Musks hyper loop is more practical in that only four to six people per pod zooming at speeds 750mph+ at ground level. Since he is a local boy, he envisioned a trip from San Francisco to L.A in less than 35 minutes. It takes over an hour to just fly. Add boarding, taxiing and de-boarding and it’s more like two hours plus. It would be a huge boost to our Economy as well to build out this infrastructure. This infrastructure can b e accommodated for regional travel. eg..Seattle to San Diego.. Chicago to Houston…Boston to Miami etc. and points in between…In fact, to save a bit of money, airports themselves could be the hubs to make up for declining airline travel. We would still need airlines for international travel, and coast to coast trips, but our airlines need to be streamlined anyway. Europe and Japan already travel by maglev and bullet trains…so its not a new concept, just a faster and far less stressful way to travel.

    -The decline of the Urban Core?
    Will telecommuting allow people to live wherever they want? This would certainly solve the high cost of housing. Add self driving cars to the mix and that takes the stress of commutes out of the equation as well, for those that have flex schedules of work at home and physical office visits. To live near the urban core, especially here in the Bay Area costs millions of dollars. I don’t care how much you make, that’s a lot of money. Mortgages of $8-11K are not unheard of here. However, just 40-60 miles south in south Santa Clara County, Monterey and Santa Cruz counties, a person can buy a home at a third of the price. There are some people that make that commute everyday, but it comes at a huge mentally tasking cost and about 3 hours+ of daily commute time. There are two scenarios that can help ease that commute. Stagger in office time to ease rush hour commutes while promoting office distancing. Since we can have face to face meetings via Zoom and other web conferencing methods, one can start his or her day that way. Then, post rush hour, they can get in the car and have a much easier drive. Or…take advantage of a totally self driving car that allows that person to conduct work while driving. The commute isn’t any worse, but the productivity of that commute is increased dramatically. I have been published on this very subject, focusing more on th impact of self driving cars and real estate values. All of these scenarios however will ease the crowding and eventual accelerating pricing on homes in the core of an urban area.

    -Virtual Cash
    Someone else mentioned this up top, but I am basically doing that now. I use Apple Pay for everything and have online payments set up for all my bills. I have had the same $20 bills in my wallet for months. I just don’t use cash. Even when settling up at a restaurant with friends, one person pays the bill and we all just Venmo each other what we owe.

    -The emergence of a licensed Santizer organization.
    Just like having a license to be a contractor, pest control operator, or certified mechanic, there will be an organization that licenses people to properly anti-virally and anti-bacterially sanitize hotels, offices, restaurants, public spaces and homes. I am actually looking into that myself. Don’t steal my idea.

    -Zero Population growth
    Probably the most controversial is the practice that China implemented to curb it’s growth. No more than two kids per family worldwide. It’s nearly impossible to make into law, but will probably be more a shaming initiative like Don’t drink and drive and anti-smoking campaigns. These will be suggestions and there may be higher penalties and taxes for those that don’t comply. We have to stop our worlds rise in population. That’s part of our problem. The more of us that there are, the higher the chances of more pandemics spreading. Mother Nature has a way of fighting back.

    –

  32. HAWAII TOTAL CASES 224 UP 20. No sooner did I tell George there were no Hawaii deaths, than the Mayor of Honolullu comes on TV this afternoon to announce our first death. Here’s the stats as of noon today from HDOH:

    Total cases: 224 (20 new)
    Hawai’i County: 15 (0)
    Honolulu County: 157 (18)
    Kaua’i County: 12 (0)
    Maui County: 25 (0)
    Pending: 13 (2)
    Residents diagnosed outside of Hawai‘i: 2 (0

    Required Hospitalization: 13 (1)
    Hawaii deaths: 1 (1)
    Released from Isolation: 58 (3)

    Interisland travel quarantine 14 days goes into effect tonight. Essential workers only exempted. All incoming to Hawaii have mandatory 14 day quarantine. “Stay at home” orders in effect.

  33. COVID-19 Projections

    This study presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US.

    From: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    ISME assumes no population, anywhere in the U.S. does anything stupid. They are much more optimistic than I. Still, it’s an interesting tool…

  34. George, So in two weeks when the numbers peak and in 60 days when this virus has vanished are you going to back track on those numbers? I’ll remind you in 30 days.

  35. “Australian Report: Wuhan Whistleblower Dr. Ai Fen Has ‘Disappeared’”

    https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/30/australian-report-wuhan-whistleblower-dr-ai-fen-has-disappeared/
    _________________________

    Prequel:

    Coronavirus: Wuhan doctor speaks out against authorities

    Ai Fen says in interview, which censors are trying to erase, how superiors reprimanded her for warning about outbreak

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-wuhan-doctor-ai-fen-speaks-out-against-authorities

    …As Queen plays in the background.

    • LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL…I personally think that It is a sad time to be afraid of that LOL LOL LOL LOL they have been made in china and the baltic regions for years now.. several thousand dollars cheaper to buy it from the manufacturer than from a supplier in the USA to..

  37. No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html
    ________________________

    “Like Watching a Horror Movie”: Sweden’s Liberal Approach to Coronavirus Under Fire

    Open borders, no social distancing; Higher death toll than Norway, Denmark & Finland combined.

    https://www.prisonplanet.com/like-watching-a-horror-movie-swedens-liberal-approach-to-coronavirus-under-fire.html

    • Yesterday I was visiting with a friend in sweden and asked how it was going over there.. the way she talked was it was a lot like it is here at home.. so I question whether or not that story is totally accurate..
      The same with Iceland.. he was saying that things are just like it is here there to..everyone is worried and being cautious..

    • there are Dick Heads in every bunch.. that is as disgusting as the video of a mexican field worker peeing on the lettuce..

  43. You forgot one timeframe that certain people live in – The Moment

    Is there a difference between happiness and inner peace? Yes. Happiness depends on conditions being perceived as positive; inner peace does not. – Eckhart Tolle

    Good Luck or Bad Luck? Who Knows! https://www.lollydaskal.com/leadership/good-luck-bad-luck-knows/

    The death rate is not 6% from covid 19 – it is closer to 1%… Yes you protect your flock, but as an influencer, maybe you can get your flock to step into themselves to “visualize”, radiate and meditate on the end of the virus.

    • Living in the moment is dandy – in peaceful, laid back times.
      When things are changing, the bodies of Now’ers are found everywhere.
      You can’t duck as the bullet is fired. Anticipation is salvation.
      (‘course it’ll make you nuts, but t hat’s a six-pack discussing)

    • G____ is not the one setting up the lock downs, nor is he the one out trying to undo a lifetime of sh*t-happens personal logistics by binge shopping at the local grocery store. G____ is simply providing the same service to his readers that he has for, OMG, decades.

      I am familiar with eastern religious concepts of consensus reality. Viruses don’t do consensus reality. What you are radiating is suicidal delusions. This falls under the western concept of normalcy bias. It won’t be the reader’s karma that saves them, it will be keeping their head in the game.

      I will concede that the dangers facing the readers now may well be less Covid-19 and more systemic failure, economic meltdown and authoritarian overreach. That doesn’t mean G___’s bug projections are invalid; it just means they are one piece of the overall situation. As G____ pointed out yesterday, his projections for the last two weeks were rather on the low side. That makes G___ an optimist, by the way.

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