We begin with a sobering statistical Reality:
- IN WW II: 418,500 for both U.S. civilians and .mil deaths in WW II.
- In WW I: 116,516 Americans were killed – same metrics
- In Korea: 36,574 Americans were killed.
- In Vietnam:58,314 Yanks were killed.
- In U.S Civil War, 820,000 -1,200,000 (generally rounded to 1-million) were killed.
- War of 1812: 1,877
- American Revolution: 25,000
- In the Sandbox 382 Americans died in the Gulf War
- Iraq War an estimated 100,000 Americans died.
- In Afghanistan 20,083.
We can quibble about these numbers. But big-picture with me: 1.98-million.
Now the cold reality. Here’s our GLOBAL forecast of how bad things could get – beginning with cases:
And since, with the data this morning our mortality rate is around 4%, this translated globally in our look-ahead as:
While the Global Death toll might, in this admittedly simplistic linear projection reach well over 100-million, how do we figure what the US death toll might be?
Well, since there are 7.6 billion in the world – and since only .330 billion are Americans, it stands to reason 1/23rd of the deaths MIGHT come here. Such that IF the COVID Death toll were to hit 150-million, the American body count would be about 6-million dead.
Or, coming at it from the other way, if 1.98-million people have died in all previous American wars …rounding to 2-million to make this easy, then when the Death Toll globally hits 46-million, then our losses could be in the 2-million area.
Around June 22 in our grimmest outlook.
The good news – suc h as it is?
Well, we are watching the daily cases and deaths report like a hawk. And we may take to an afternoon update because these morning numbers begin low, but with the noon’ish data skew badly. In the “dawn’s early light” this looks pretty good, though:
Based on the past week, or so, the morning readings are updated and have snuffed-out most glimmers of improvement.
But, Say, How ‘Bout Them Markets?
Not to be in the “told you so” camp, but the dawn of the Second Depression is here, too, as a result of the virus.
My consigliere notes that this work does not line up the numbers perfectly because of minor difference in calendars. Saturday trading on September 14th of 1929, for example. My sense is that we will likely bottom-out around the same ultimate price levels.
The horror-story (and global die-off prospects) grow if it’s all based on calendar days. Because if it is, global markets might lose 90 percent of their value. And, kiss off liquidity.
Which rolls us around to the pre-open and it looks like this
Still, taken as a whole, there is cause for a sizeable rally to show up, and you don’t want to be short – especially if there’s some really positive breaking news. Like over the weekend, for example. Now, whether you take that as “hint” or “hope” is entirely at reader discretion.
Data Lags, But Still Useful
Philly Fed outlook, for example:
The diffusion index for current activity declined markedly from a three-year high reading of 36.7 in February to -12.7 this month, its lowest reading since July 2012 (see Chart 1). The percentage of firms reporting decreases (30 percent) this month exceeded the percentage reporting increases (18 percent). The index for new orders also turned negative, falling from 33.6 to -15.5. The current shipments index fell 25 points but remained slightly positive, although its current reading near zero suggests overall shipments were unchanged from February. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes moved into negative territory this month, falling 15 points and 12 points, respectively.
And check the virus-related drop in the chart:
And then we have the Current Accounts data:
“The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $15.6 billion, or 12.4 percent, to $109.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The revised third quarter deficit was $125.4 billion.
The fourth quarter deficit was 2.0 percent of current dollar gross domestic product (GDP), down from 2.3 percent in the third quarter.
The $15.6 billion narrowing of the current account deficit in the fourth quarter mainly reflected a reduced deficit on goods that was partly offset by an expanded deficit on secondary income.”
All, in all, not particularly encouraging, eh? Well, then your reallywon’t like to read how Jobless Claims Explode Higher As Virus-Impact Begins To Hit Main Street over on ZeroHedge…
Headlines Worthy of Considering
We think this is so low as to almost be in the “happy talk” file: Investor Ray Dalio estimates the corporate losses in the US from coronavirus will top $4 trillion.
And start jotting down IP numerical addresses now. The Internet is nearing limits as seen by the report Netflix urged to slow down streaming to stop the internet from breaking. You will want direct IP addresses on hand for your critical links.
Into the breach, anyone?
Write when you get rich,