Ure Goes Short: Market to Drop

It looks to me like the “K3” formation in the markets may have completed yesterday with that smoking Dow rally which left the headline average 160 points higher by the close.

But on inspection, around mid morning (the trade chit says I went short (SDOW Executed @ $24.2765

There was a tip-off, though, so pay attention and learn:  As I mentioned in the column (or was it Peoplenomics?) I looked for Wednesday to be a “painting of the tape day” and sure enough, that’s what happened.  How did I know?

(Continues below)

 

50 percent short is not a lot of conviction on my part.  If I had real conviction, I would have gone 100 percent short. Or, better, I would have piled into options because the spread between the Dow yesterday and where it’s likely to close today, will make some professionals very, very happy.

It ain’t like running the market up prior to options expiration is exactly a new deal.

People on the wrong side of the trade?  Especially the blind “buy-the-dippers?”  It’s the difference between professionals and cannon fodder.  Amateurs don’t look at the trading calendar.

Still, being able to snag a decent turn now and then is fun, puts a few beans in the pot, and keeps one aging mind agile.

So much so that Saturday’s Peoplenomics is already taking shape:  “Does the Market Forecast the NK Strike Date?

I do believe it may.  But, we’ll save that for the folks in the loge seats, not those watching from the outfield bleachers.

EXCEPT that I do want you to notice the numbers that drove me to pull the trigger on this short position.  (Finally!  Ure warms to his point…)

In Wednesday’s trading, the Nasdaq composite was up a lousy 0.56 point.  Which pencils out to?  0.01 percent.  A good-sized fart would have more impact.

On the S&P, a little more action: up 1.90 points which pencils to 0.07%.  Not to be crude (again), but about two farts worth.

Ah, then we have the Dow-painters:  Dow was puffed up 160.15 points which was a whopping 0.70 percent.  That’s ten-times what the S&P was up.

(Mr. Crude notes: If you’re doing the math, that’s 20-farts worth.)

That, my friend, is what we mean when writing about “painting the tape.”  (I think of it as trading brain farts sometimes.)

Why do folks miss it?  Simple.  Allow us to explain…

Most (*read: average) people think about the stock market (and their retirement dough) in vastly simplified terms.  They’ll be driving along, talking on  the cell phone, texting, munching high-fat, sugary snacks,  (Which we read this morning causes cancer), voting democrat, and pretending to be “active” social warriors.

Accidentally, they hear what from the radio while driving distracted?

Dow Jones Industrials up 160 points to a new record high.  And in other news….”

Stupidly, they think all is well.  It’s like playing soft music to the cattle on their way to the killing room floor down at the packing plant.  It doesn’t end well.

So this morning, the Dow futures are down about 100, the NASDAQ – a great directional tool – is down even more.

We expect the plunge protection team will be trying to soften this a bit because Janet may not want to be Fed Chief when this all blows up next year.  (Timing is everything.)

Back behind the wheel, the herd of low-information ‘Mericans, who could get aggressive with their retirement bundle by making a telephone transfer into something like a bond fund for a few days – keep munching those snacks and forwarding crap to Facebook pages.

Useless activity that won’t make ’em rich.  But when you learn to listen, you’ll pick out the soft music along the cattle chute.

This is NOT the end of the world.  Too many people are telling you it’s coming.  We’ll probably hold that for late winter…but in the meantime, when you hear this morning’s opening bell?

Pretend it’s an alarm clock.

Financials Matter

Here’s a great read if you’re not savvy as to the notion of “cash burn.”  It’s in today’s Economist:

Companies that burn up $1bn a year are sexy, dangerous, and statistically doomed.

But hey!  Wrap up bad ideas in an electric car, going to Mars, and spewing often enough, to enough people, and there’s no telling how many will follow that pied-piper out of town…  Leaving their money behind, them, of course.

This is Not News

Or is it?  Lowly Liberals Manipulate Gold Star Families in War on Trump.  Note the British Press is all over this story.

The more conspiratorially-minded will recall that The Network is really in the main, a British-American Establishment core, founded by the likes of Rhodes, et. al.  But, you knew that.  And The Establishment’s Network of embeds just hates Trump.

Not one of them.

We’re reminded of the old Groucho Marx line that went to the idea:  “I wouldn’t be a member of any club that would let me join…”  And Trump has enough sense not to join that Club.

Cross the Aisle?  Fear

That’s because “Senate seeks to interview FBI informant in Russian nuclear bribery case.”

Pardon the pun, but could this become the foundation for further investigations?  Might orange become professorial lecture-wear?

No, the fix is in…

When in Doubt, Attack

So please cue the rights-stripping democrat on the Federal Election Commission who is agitating to make you personally accountable – liable -for sharing “fake news.”

“Fake news” is that which democrats (and RINOs) don’t like.

We’ve always held that democrats have only the vaguest idea of how to read, but this is the icing:  The Constitution is very clear about free press rights, and unlike demoncratic offishuldumb, the Founders didn’t make up what allowable press is.

Democrats, on the other hand, do that.

I’m sure a democrat-inspired read of Trotsky, Lenin, Marx, and Stalin would back up and justify the view that allowable press is that which agrees with whatever democrats are claiming as government power over individuals and sovereign human rights.

RINOs, BTW, are also to be thought of as democrats; having lost their way – and the ability to read.

I know –  you knew this stuff – but you’re supposed to forget it.  I just like to be a PITA and remind you now and then.

Freedom Crushers II:  Inquisitions Next?

From the people who brought you the Inquisition?

Catalonia crisis: Spain moves to suspend autonomy.

Spain calls Cabinet meeting after Catalan leader’s threat.

Spain moves to revoke Catalan autonomy amid independence bid.

Another fine example of how a royalist government talks about freedom for people.  But when the rubber meets the road, the people get squashed even after attempting to play by the Rules.

My personal boycott of Spanish goods (wines, mostly) won’t bankrupt the Spanish, but it should put a hole in their balance of trade.

The Rest?

The headlines, as always, are full of massive distractions.

Remember in your heart-of-hearts this simple guidance:

Everything is a Business Model.”  And, “If it doesn’t make life better, or make you money, why are you doing it?”

Now, to celebrate calling a market turn, off to have a pan-fried filet mignon and scrambled eggs and toast.  With, of course, a baby aspirin, to keep the doc happy.

Mor’on the Morrow…

Comments

Ure Goes Short: Market to Drop — 22 Comments

  1. I think this market goes up for many more months, maybe even years. Why not? If the FED can pump money anytime they feel necessary, what will cause it to drop? Inflation at our level doesn’t matter to the elites. What will it take to knock the floor out? I wouldn’t be surprised to see if a war against NK happens, the market melts up. Why not?

  2. My thoughts on K3 because I think it has merit as an indicator. Your index combines the 3 indexes – Dow, S&P, NASDAQ. As of the close yesterday I only showed a 3K for the Dow. The S & P & the NASDAQ were both at 2K and did not confirm the Dow 3K. I don’t know if this non confirmation by the other 2 means anything but I will know more as the days pass & I can see what the market does K wise to try & learn more.

  3. I am confused about the difference between “fake news”and propaganda. ‘Fake news’ seems to be a new P.C correct for propaganda. I am sure there is a defined difference. In the 1970’s propaganda was often called any questionable news. I do not want to appear ignorant,but the lines are blurred sometimes,even with my reading glasses.

  4. You packed a rather large ‘wallop’ in your last comments about everything either being a business model or making life better, else why does one ‘do something’?

    Some people do things because they are passed down in ‘holy books’ – not just religious texts, but books written by people having experienced ‘the human condition’ – these do include collections of laws intended to make the situation of people living together tolerable. Violate laws, whether ‘official’ or just ‘customary’, and one will feel the consequences eventually. (At least that is the idea – but in practice, some people don’t because of influence.)

    For me, people who lie, – ‘liars’ – are some of the worst offenders. For the sake of momentary gain, they have sold their honor, and the ability to be trusted. (While everyone, on occasion is overly optimistic about things – deliberate lying is different.)

    You will not like this comment, but in my opinion, Donald Trump is a liar – and not because of any perceived gain for our country, but rather because it makes him feel ‘good’.

    If we destroy a country because it makes the president ‘feel more powerful’, then we will be on the trash heap of history – utter garbage!

  5. I bought my first stock 70 years ago. Their product is now the most popular vehicle among the ‘elites of the world.’ I thought that I was smart when selling at 10 times my original purchase price. I should have held for 100 times;-)! But that is history.

    (Cigarettes also sold for 1 cent a piece and a bottle of beer was 10 cents). Very much later in life I used early AI for picking stocks. Results over the long term would have been excellent. During my history I had to deal with much confusing bullish versus bearish scenarios, just like today.

    My contribution to younger readers is to never neglect the 200-day SMA. You will do well with whatever other method you’ll be using. I think that today’s AI should be so much more advanced than what I’ve known in the past? Does anyone know of any ‘neural network for stocks’ that they like?
    Thank you!

  6. “Everything is a Business Model.” And, “If it doesn’t make life better, or make you money, why are you doing it?”
    You are exactly right. It is this attitude that has put the world exactly where it is, and is bringing about all the goodness we have coming. People who have the world all figured out and “know what’s what about right and wrong, good and bad, conservative and liberal, etc., etc. — you all surely are leading us in the right direction !! lmao

    • We got a troll, otherwise Jon #2; we’ve been waiting for you to show up, and we can see, your MO, already, and you are just out of the chute. How long are you gonna ride that donkey you are on or is it a goat?

  7. No one’s fooling anyone on this ‘Fake News’ thing. You got a guy in the Whitehouse who constantly spouts untruths, and then calls the folks who call bullsh-t on him fake news. All my pro-Trump friends know this, and just smile when called out on it.

    How about a fresh start? How about we follow the true facts? If Dems took bribes, go get ’em. And when a Putin agent gave $90 million to Trump for a Florida place then worth $20 million, go get him. Mike.

    • Get over it> the term Fact Check didn’t exist until Trump. It’s THE NETWORKscam to disembowel Trump before they lose their power and ownership at the right hand of.
      Show me Fact Check during the first 2-years of Obama, lol.
      People are so freaking gull-bull

    • Watch The Obama Deception, FREE, on YouTube. Money spent on a production to expose, and spread, clearly laid out, factual information, without demand for a fee to view, not funded by any corporation, is worth a look… woke my Obama-loving brainwashed mother up! She called me in tears! Anyway, I can guess why George didn’t respond to your response… because at THIS point in the game, people with your mindset are too fu***** far gone and brainwashed to keep from following the lemmings off of the cliff. Just my 2 cents… all I had left to spare!