It looks to me like the “K3” formation in the markets may have completed yesterday with that smoking Dow rally which left the headline average 160 points higher by the close.
But on inspection, around mid morning (the trade chit says I went short (SDOW Executed @ $24.2765
There was a tip-off, though, so pay attention and learn: As I mentioned in the column (or was it Peoplenomics?) I looked for Wednesday to be a “painting of the tape day” and sure enough, that’s what happened. How did I know?
50 percent short is not a lot of conviction on my part. If I had real conviction, I would have gone 100 percent short. Or, better, I would have piled into options because the spread between the Dow yesterday and where it’s likely to close today, will make some professionals very, very happy.
It ain’t like running the market up prior to options expiration is exactly a new deal.
People on the wrong side of the trade? Especially the blind “buy-the-dippers?” It’s the difference between professionals and cannon fodder. Amateurs don’t look at the trading calendar.
Still, being able to snag a decent turn now and then is fun, puts a few beans in the pot, and keeps one aging mind agile.
So much so that Saturday’s Peoplenomics is already taking shape: “Does the Market Forecast the NK Strike Date?”
I do believe it may. But, we’ll save that for the folks in the loge seats, not those watching from the outfield bleachers.
EXCEPT that I do want you to notice the numbers that drove me to pull the trigger on this short position. (Finally! Ure warms to his point…)
In Wednesday’s trading, the Nasdaq composite was up a lousy 0.56 point. Which pencils out to? 0.01 percent. A good-sized fart would have more impact.
On the S&P, a little more action: up 1.90 points which pencils to 0.07%. Not to be crude (again), but about two farts worth.
Ah, then we have the Dow-painters: Dow was puffed up 160.15 points which was a whopping 0.70 percent. That’s ten-times what the S&P was up.
(Mr. Crude notes: If you’re doing the math, that’s 20-farts worth.)
That, my friend, is what we mean when writing about “painting the tape.” (I think of it as trading brain farts sometimes.)
Why do folks miss it? Simple. Allow us to explain…
Most (*read: average) people think about the stock market (and their retirement dough) in vastly simplified terms. They’ll be driving along, talking on the cell phone, texting, munching high-fat, sugary snacks, (Which we read this morning causes cancer), voting democrat, and pretending to be “active” social warriors.
Accidentally, they hear what from the radio while driving distracted?
“Dow Jones Industrials up 160 points to a new record high. And in other news….”
Stupidly, they think all is well. It’s like playing soft music to the cattle on their way to the killing room floor down at the packing plant. It doesn’t end well.
So this morning, the Dow futures are down about 100, the NASDAQ – a great directional tool – is down even more.
We expect the plunge protection team will be trying to soften this a bit because Janet may not want to be Fed Chief when this all blows up next year. (Timing is everything.)
Back behind the wheel, the herd of low-information ‘Mericans, who could get aggressive with their retirement bundle by making a telephone transfer into something like a bond fund for a few days – keep munching those snacks and forwarding crap to Facebook pages.
Useless activity that won’t make ’em rich. But when you learn to listen, you’ll pick out the soft music along the cattle chute.
This is NOT the end of the world. Too many people are telling you it’s coming. We’ll probably hold that for late winter…but in the meantime, when you hear this morning’s opening bell?
Pretend it’s an alarm clock.
Here’s a great read if you’re not savvy as to the notion of “cash burn.” It’s in today’s Economist:
But hey! Wrap up bad ideas in an electric car, going to Mars, and spewing often enough, to enough people, and there’s no telling how many will follow that pied-piper out of town… Leaving their money behind, them, of course.
This is Not News
The more conspiratorially-minded will recall that The Network is really in the main, a British-American Establishment core, founded by the likes of Rhodes, et. al. But, you knew that. And The Establishment’s Network of embeds just hates Trump.
Not one of them.
We’re reminded of the old Groucho Marx line that went to the idea: “I wouldn’t be a member of any club that would let me join…” And Trump has enough sense not to join that Club.
Cross the Aisle? Fear
That’s because “Senate seeks to interview FBI informant in Russian nuclear bribery case.”
Pardon the pun, but could this become the foundation for further investigations? Might orange become professorial lecture-wear?
No, the fix is in…
When in Doubt, Attack
“Fake news” is that which democrats (and RINOs) don’t like.
We’ve always held that democrats have only the vaguest idea of how to read, but this is the icing: The Constitution is very clear about free press rights, and unlike demoncratic offishuldumb, the Founders didn’t make up what allowable press is.
Democrats, on the other hand, do that.
I’m sure a democrat-inspired read of Trotsky, Lenin, Marx, and Stalin would back up and justify the view that allowable press is that which agrees with whatever democrats are claiming as government power over individuals and sovereign human rights.
RINOs, BTW, are also to be thought of as democrats; having lost their way – and the ability to read.
I know – you knew this stuff – but you’re supposed to forget it. I just like to be a PITA and remind you now and then.
Freedom Crushers II: Inquisitions Next?
From the people who brought you the Inquisition?
Another fine example of how a royalist government talks about freedom for people. But when the rubber meets the road, the people get squashed even after attempting to play by the Rules.
My personal boycott of Spanish goods (wines, mostly) won’t bankrupt the Spanish, but it should put a hole in their balance of trade.
The headlines, as always, are full of massive distractions.
Remember in your heart-of-hearts this simple guidance:
“Everything is a Business Model.” And, “If it doesn’t make life better, or make you money, why are you doing it?”
Now, to celebrate calling a market turn, off to have a pan-fried filet mignon and scrambled eggs and toast. With, of course, a baby aspirin, to keep the doc happy.
Mor’on the Morrow…