Macroeconomics first. When “times are good” people run out and buy houses. Smart thing to do because the government – unable to live within a budget – overspends all the time. And, as we discussed in the Monday column, ten bucks’ worth of “stuff” in 1913 is over $800 today.
People buy homes generally knowing that a) they will very likely be paying them off with cheaper money (as purchasing power is stolen by the mad bureaucracy) and because b) there’s no incentive to pay rent – which makes someone else rich.
The Housing data will be out shortly, and we will update as soon as it is. But our keen interest is in hysteresis and change of trend. That’s because when an economy kicks into high gear, there’s a lag (the hysteresis part) before home prices launch into orbit. Takes a little while for savings to mount up for the down payment. Economists measure this lag before going higher.
At the Top, things go the other way. When a macroeconomic top is reached, no one waves a flag and says, “Close on this date for the best possible cash to seller numbers.” I’ve noticed two windows that often occur. One is well-ahead of the actual peak of prices. But when rates are still low – before the rates make their final move up – the cash to seller can be good to tasty.
The second good time to sell is when home prices have hit their absolute peak and interest is starting to come down a bit. And it’s here that we would frame today’s Housing report.
With 800-thousand jobs un-lied out of existence in the past week, and with taxpayer money going into immigrant housing programs (violating every equal protection concept of jurisprudence) you know the reported housing prices will begin their cyclical descent soon. The question is whether that’s “soon – like today” or whether it’s “soon – after the Elections.”
Damn fine questions those. Before the headline, we would expect housing’s rate of change, at a minimum, to be decreasing a bit. We will know shortly after 8 AM local and will update then.
Rad Detectors Ready?
We have three of them. Two late model units and an old Civil Defense meter picked up years ago. Along with the dog-eared copy of Cresson Kearny’s book on nuke war. Which was updated this year (don’t know if you’ve seen it yet) “Nuclear War Survival Skills Updated and Expanded 2022 Edition Regarding Ukraine Russia and the World: The Best Book on Any Nuclear Incident Ever … New Methods and Tools As New Threats Emerge.”
Why mention it? Because in our view, the world is likely closer to a nuclear exchange than we were during the Cuban Missile Crisis back in 1962 (I was in junior high school at the time).
We know this week that Ukraine (and supposedly NATO “advisors”) have been bombing a nuclear plant in Russia. If Ukraine does cripple the contested plan into meltdown, that will be a “line in the sand crossed” at which time Russia is likely to lash out with nukes for NATO. Because without NATO (and US) supplied arms, Ukraine forces would likely not have been making the progress into the Motherland they have.
We also read how close that line in the sand is to being crossed as Threats to use nuclear weapons by Russian state channel: Putin has decided on ‘particularly tough response’ over Kursk. And, as if to emphasize, the follow-up to the threat was Russia unleashes biggest bombardment since start of war in Ukraine – Heavy strikes on F-16 energy infrastructure and bases.
This is only one of four major war front zones we track (for now). The others are the rings of defense around Israel, the two Koreas problem, and of course the fate of Taiwan where we get the “good chips from.” Which in passing, reminds us that we would likely not be able to wage even a medium duration war if Asia is lost because that’s how critical South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are to our supply chain.
Not that the Iranian’s don’t have some leverage. They can influence us out of oil supplies in the Middle East through their theocracy’s religious affiliates. And if you’re waiting for the Joe Droolers to get on the stick and lease out every patch of drillable oil leases possible, keep waiting.
Understand that global corporate socialism is on the march so “Policies flow like water.” Once “values based.” the U.S. is now suffering industrial addiction based on high turnover of shoddy goods (in order to maintain sales and hence exec bonuses) which is the whole point, anymore. Not making Best or most Responsible.
How About Iran?
Let me talk around it a bit. Opening with the overnight action in Gaza: “IDF engages West Bank terrorists, former hostage reveals abuse.”
We have a pretty good idea that it’s only a matter of time until the Middle East, like Ukraine, turns to “baseball coverage.” So many soldiers “out” so many on base and… Here’s an example from Iranian state media: Some 2,150 Israelis wounded in Hezbollah’s attacks: Report – IRNA English.
The True Dopes Report
Help a brother out, if you’re a Canadian. We know from early speeches and positioning that prime blunderer True Dope has sucked up to the environmental sorts. Fine – lefties do that – we understand.
But where climate turns into just another hoodwink is on reading how Canada imposes 100 percent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles, matching the U.S. measure against imports | PBS News.
Our question is very simple, really: If this is a “climate emergency” how is it that a move certain to make electric vehicles more expensive – which will reduce sales – is a good thing?
Rational people want to know? (We already know global warming is going on throughout the solar system and Martians will have to forgo propane BBQs, already. And cow farts are already banned on Venus. But THIS – a silver stake through EV sales by price swindling? Come on, not everyone is a true dope.
Eh?
Short Snorts
There goes the Harris lead? Texas removes more than 1 million ineligible voters from voter rolls (kcbd.com)
Also defending America from the inside: Federal judge blocks Biden admin move to give legal status to illegal immigrant spouses of US citizens. Anchor marriages to go?
But the fraud squad strikes back: Georgia: Democrats sue to block new GOP-backed election certification rules. I mean, who wants sane and enforceable rules, right?
We’ve always held that racism in any form is bad. But guess we must not be in a protected class, huh? Woman says she will only hire black people because she has an “anti-racism policy” (citizenwatchreport.com) Please observe racism by non-Whites is OK now?
Send your children to Texas for schooling: TEXAS SCHOOL DISTRICT REQUIRES PARENTAL CONSENT FOR PRONOUN CHANGES (rumble.com) Finally, sanity appears. (*Not likely to last long, though!)
Out to launch: SpaceX Polaris launch postponed after helium leak is detected (nbcnews.com)
Around the Ranch: Kafka’s Car Tabs
Political bullshit has come to peaceable Anderson County Texas. Government is no longer accountable or rational, as we read it. Based on first-hand experience.
Here’s the deal:
May 30, I get my car inspected early for September tabs.
August 23, I arrive at the local Assessor’s office to pay the freight and pick up the tabs.
“Sorry Mr. Ure, this inspection was done in May. It’s now August and it has to be done in 90 days.”
I informed them that I was within the 90-day window.
“No Mr. Ure. You did this is May, it is now August. That’s more than 90 days. You have to get the car reinspected because it has to be in our system in the “last three months.”
OMFG this people are crazy – out of control and making up bullshit just like the rest of the country now. When comes time to vote for a new Assessor, we will remember this (idiotic policy) and promote sanity in local government.
It’s even crazier because the whole state inspection thing ends in Texas January 1.
For now, I will merely go to the local tire shop, get them to reinspect ($8) and go play the game. Then I may sue the assessor for my second $8-bucks, plus another trip to town.
But this is how the contagion of runaway government begins. Little chicken-shit stuff like this. They just make things up on the fly. You have to do it their way, or else.
Write when you get justice,
George@Ure.net
“The second good time to sell is when home prices have hit their absolute peak and interest is starting to come down a bit.”
And there is also very bad time to sell.
From house to slaughterhouse…
Tina had told Powell that she and her daughter were going to meet her siblings and a realtor to discuss selling her late mom’s house, which was headed to the market after the 95-year-old Theresa DeLucia’s Aug. 19 death.
Cops said Joseph DeLucia had a history of mental illness and could not comprehend that he’d have to leave the home he’d lived in his entire life because his family wanted to sell it.
https://nypost.com/2024/08/26/us-news/new-details-emerge-about-victims-of-grisly-li-murder-suicide-including-bubbly-mom-killed-alongside-daughter/
(“the world is likely closer to a nuclear exchange than we were during the Cuban Missile Crisis back in 1962 (I was in junior high school at the time).”)
I was in grade school.. and they took bullwinkle off the air for almost a week..
a little bullwinkle for those in reminiscing mode.. LOL
https://youtu.be/LYNVCm48w6g?si=gyXc7lIFr0hNiRYY
You can use just your phone to detect radiation! I did it years ago with a phone and app I don’t remember, but here is something I found now:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ImageInsightInc.GammaPixLite&hl=en_US&pli=1
When you black out your camera with several layers of black tape, somehow the only thing left that gets to the phone is gamma rays and the app turns them into a click.
“No Mr. Ure. You did this is May, it is now August. That’s more than 90 days. You have to get the car reinspected because it has to be in our system in the “last three months.”
This sort of shit has EXPLODED in our society since obumma aWOKE the nation.
I see it in every Corporation that went Woke since the BoneSmugglerinchief was in whitehouse throwing “Hotdog and Pizza Parties” with lil kids on the regular. Sure play dumb to the pedophilia – I Know U aint playing.
For example the once mighty, and most trusted and most conservative Investment House in US went Woke and removed the HMS Vanguard from its logo several years ago.
Did that act of removal of an image make them any LESS RACIST ? I think not.
Everybody I know who used to work for that firm say the same things…which basically all comes back to “Go Woke, Go Broke”..which usually comes in the form an ancient Chinese technique, Death By a Thousand Cuts..watch corps around the world as they struggle with Failure that IS – Death By a Thousand Cuts…go ahead ask NESTLE how DbATC worked for them..
(“How About Iran?
Let me talk around it a bit. “)
Oh they are holding off.. take the us navy put ships headed in one direction and left the pacific open.. oops.. see i believe that is because you cannot be everywhere at one time.. the divide and conquer event.. kids do it to parents all the time..
(“In “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu, “dividing forces” refers to the military strategy of splitting your army into smaller units to strategically attack different parts of the enemy force, essentially “dividing and conquering” them, especially when you have a numerical advantage over the enemy; this tactic is most effective when used to isolate and overwhelm individual enemy sections rather than engaging them as a unified whole. “) a little art of war there.. while we were shuffling off on the business model and outsourcing for advancement of profits while tossing the working class under the bus.. bailing out to big to fail corporations that outsourced and fired employees.. hmm.. then the poison pawn trap.. a billion for a million exchange to benefit the brand.. I belive that while they have been walking in right behind us and getting the agreements to stick together.. ( gosh oh me.. that sounds like another NATO ) because we would march in and take the goods of another country that is much weaker.. so we have the poison pawn trap.. ukraine we see as valuable because it has vast resources.. has been a great spot to have the corrupt companies and services.. that have benefitted those people.. the whole mess isn’t a secret.. been known for years and years.. so why not use them as the pawn to use up strategic reserves.. the one I see lighting it up is.. the puppet masters have several times tried to erase and put in a puppet regime in NK.. the kid is no dummy.. he is the only one that is willing to openly threaten the puppet masters.. I think he will be the one to give the lets go or make my day punk ..then when that happens.. the whole world will be in it at one time.. all those little countries.. then take for well over sixty something years.. every one of those that have illegals coming across the border has said openly that they would attack from within.. did we think they were just kidding around or did they say it so much that we just figure oh they wouldn’t ever do that.. then the brand.. give me some money drugs and sex partners of all ages and we gotta deal.. millions have walked across the border.. every general except one.. ( hes a suck up ) has said the same thing be careful every threat analyst has said the same thing.. we are screwed.. the best we can expect is the worst depression in modern history the cloward piven act at its best.. all while these countries are letting all their violent prisoners out to come to america..
even knowing what we do about other countries that have fallen and we put in our puppets.. you would think that the members of congress would get a clue.. or is it just to sheltered in the bubble for them to know for sure.. but we all know what happens to politicians and the people on the hill in an all out event.. it might not scare a californian but it sure scares the shit out of me..
https://youtu.be/ac6dlI2pyjw?si=Wkif_7SDK-oxhF13
https://youtu.be/gr7d1sTDNts?si=jKL-7fTt-vn0pH5g
https://youtu.be/e3C8grEN2Fk?si=Z0TRBq8FGne3BBKJ
Current inspection sticker protocol: I schedule my car for the state inspection on the first Saturday of the month shown on the sticker. Then I buy the new sticker online on the following Monday Monday. The sticker has shown up in time to date.
“taxpayer money going into immigrant housing programs”
Back there we wondered how could the housing bubble keep expanding. Viola! The rules were changed. Newcomer housing assistance. The SCOTUS ruled non-citizen newcomers can vote in AZ federal elections. Extended when newcomers buy houses they’ll want access to local elections and the SCOTUS will grant the local vote to them. Likely under taxation without representation – which doesn’t make sense but neither does Constitutional loyalist Amy (ah, ah, ah), giving the vote to newcomers.
This proves the U.S. has turned into an international zone.
Near as I can tell the changes started after the 2008 bailouts. Sovereignty was pawned/sold. I’d expect the next recession will redo Constitutional law. The old Constitution ended and it’s clearly not being followed.
(ah, ah, ah)
“Today, it is my honor to nominate one of our nation’s most brilliant and gifted legal minds to the Supreme Court. She is a woman of unparalleled achievement, towering intellect, sterling credentials, and unyielding loyalty to the Constitution: Judge Amy Coney Barrett. (Applause.)”
https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-announcing-nominee-associate-justice-supreme-court-united-states/
Barrett admits Trump’s private acts don’t qualify for immunity, breaks with Supreme Court on AZ voting law on proof of citizenship:
https://www.newsweek.com/amy-coney-barrett-breaks-supreme-court-arizona-voting-law-1943231
“Help a brother out, if you’re a Canadian.”
What can I say except, Liberal thinking is a disease. They come up with all the ideas to implement but then forget the “and then what?”
Here’s an idea. Let’s put a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs
“and then what.”
Increase millions in government subsidies to build more EV plants here. Increase taxes to pay for it. Miss your estimates by multi-millions. Increase taxes to pay for it.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-provincial-ev-investments-pbo-1.7031398
There are key materials required for lithium-ion batteries. Last year China refined 95% of manganese, 70% of cobalt, two thirds of lithium and over 60% of nickel.
If China decides to stop shipping these minerals to us or increases prices dramatically, our EV battery costs go up dramatically. Just raise taxes to cover it.
Do you see a pattern here?
Hope this helps brother.
Oh it does! It does! And I hope you run for parliament because you are the only Canadian I know smart enough to figure this out!
you mean that they aren’t putting the smartest and best people on the ballet for us to vote for…
I don’t think it matters who is on the ballets.. or who becomes the leader.. its the business model of those in true power.. they don’t give two cents about any of the tax payers.. just send a few more to california.. they are going to increase housing new construction by the millions..LOL
Lithium comes from South America & Australia, it is then processed into batteries in China:
https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/lithium-mining-in-the-united-states#:~:text=It%20takes%20a%20fair%20amount,turned%20into%20batteries%20in%20China.
You are Correct.
DJT recognized this in 2019 and tried to do something about it. Hopefully, he can continue in 2025. It takes years and millions of dollars to build a lithium processing plant.
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/us-critical-minerals-trump/?cf-view
When I was a kid, my mom had a saying “don’t cut off your nose to spite your face.” I think the meaning was to not cause problems for yourself by punishing someone else.
That is how I see putting 100% tariffs on a finished good from country who is the largest supplier of a material you need to build the vehicle you put the 100% tariffs on.
If you want to do a deeper dive into global lithium mining and the financial and geopolitical issues in extracting and marketing the material, this is a good start.
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/analysis/six-largest-lithium-reserves-world/?cf-view
I had heard that there’s a new medication that helps with that illness..
they wanted to do trials in California and Oregon.. but the illness had spread to uncontrollable conditions..
https://youtu.be/R69gs4tUT7s?si=q9LHigUQDqTMP9NE
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Traders in the U.S. equity options market are expecting Nvidia’s (NVDA) upcoming earnings report to spark a more than $300 billion swing in the shares
Options pricing shows that traders anticipate a move of around 9.8% in the company’s shares on Thursday, a day after it reports earnings.
That’s larger than the expected move ahead of any Nvidia report over the last three years and well above the stock’s average post-earnings move of 8.1%
.
If this pans out – every stock index will set a new record high by Friday’s market close.
Shhh…don’t let the Scotch bet get spoiled. Hush yo mouth, lol
“We know this week that Ukraine (and supposedly NATO “advisors”) have been bombing a nuclear plant in Russia. If Ukraine does cripple the contested plan into meltdown, that will be a “line in the sand crossed” at which time Russia is likely to lash out with nukes for NATO.”
No, they’re not. They are likely to lash out with megatons of conventional ordinance, not plutonium. The nukes are for Poland, Germany, and France, not Ukraine.
I believe that they will wait until NATO and the USA decides to first use them…
similar to the wars in the vedics..
“If this is a “climate emergency” how is it that a move certain to make electric vehicles more expensive – which will reduce sales – is a good thing?”
Because, dammit, we want to import the raw materials from China, then make the cars here! Our air, our pollution, get it?
GCE is here.:
“Send your children to Texas for schooling: TEXAS SCHOOL DISTRICT REQUIRES PARENTAL CONSENT FOR PRONOUN CHANGES (rumble.com) Finally, sanity appears. (*Not likely to last long, though!)”
NOT SANITY!
“Sanity” would be calling children with outies “boys” and using the proper English pronouns for boys, and calling children with innies “girls” and using the proper English pronouns for girls.
As I have explained regarding “they, them:”
For gals (because ALL girls are self-conscious regarding their bustline): “If I refer to you as ‘they’ or ‘them,’ understand I am referring to your tits, not your person, your intellect, or your being. If you are okay with me addressing your tits in public, then I will continue to talk to them in public, while making sure everyone in the vicinity knows I am talking to your tits, and not you.”
Depending on the girl, if I can come up with a more degrading and personally-offensive term for a woman-child’s sweater meat or funbags, I will do so. (I don’t like such slang and don’t approve of it, but fire must be fought with fire, and I approve even less of butchering the language.) If someone doesn’t care enough about themselves or the language they speak to at least be accurate, then my disdain for that person has no bounds.
Guys are easy: I have yet to come across a “they-them” guy. When I do, he’ll get the same spiel, only regarding his ears. I can’t do “balls” because there are some guys who’d appreciate the gonadal attention. However, like breasts on girls, ALL guys are self-conscious regarding their ears, and an “earie” comment will mess with them more than anything you can say to a gal, regarding her body (even her weight!)
No sympathy for idiots. No retreat from language bullies. Fuckemall…
May 30, I get my car inspected early for September tabs.
August 23, I arrive at the local Assessor’s office to pay the freight and pick up the tabs.
“Sorry Mr. Ure, this inspection was done in May. It’s now August and it has to be done in 90 days.”
I informed them that I was within the 90-day window.
“No Mr. Ure. You did this is May, it is now August. That’s more than 90 days. You have to get the car reinspected because it has to be in our system in the “last three months.”
According to my math, that is 85 days. I would have gotten a calendar and a witness*, and had the assessor count the days in front of us.
* The witness should be either a prominent local attorney or a person likely to be running against the Assessor in the next election (or both…)
I have been thinking about Clif’s old ALTA reports… must be 30 years ago or so. He said that American soldiers will be so spread out all over the world, that they will be stuck in foreign lands, and find it extremely difficult to get home. I don’t know why that has been on my mind lately.
I have never forgotten that projection from Cliff’s reports from years ago.
That was on my mind when my son was sent to Europe this summer by the Air Force with everything that was going on with Ukraine and Iran and everyone was waiting on Iran’s counterstrike on Israel. I was relieved when he got back to the states.
re: “Twilight of Normalcy”
feat: A Tale of Two Pavels
Folks,
May I ramble on? The plot thickens? The Russian girlfriend of the detained pacifist co-founder of Telegram from St. Petersburg lately detained in Paris has apparently appeared on Russian social media under a pseudonym of the 24 episode Russian television spectacle about Catherine the Great. References to the pacifist Leo Tolstoy’s unfinished work upon his death, “The Decembrist”, abound. According to Wikipedia, Tolstoy was not permitted access by government to files he wanted about the attempted ‘Decembrist’ overthrow of Tsar Nicholas I in December 1825 in St. Petersburg by a certain noble Count Pavel Pestel , and in January 1826 in Kyiv by Ukrainian nationalists. Former web details now remain accessible at the following Archive link:
https://web.archive.org/web/20191231031045/http://rodnaya-istoriya.ru/index.php/istoriya-i-literatura/istoriya-i-literatura/p.i.-pestel-na-sledstvii.html
It would appear that a great-great grandson of Tolstoy is a cultural advisor to the President of Russia. Apparently the income generated by Telegram messages has not (ever?) met its expenses. The amount of income to Telegram from its inhouse cryptocurrency is not published. “Reuters” did quote the Kremlin asking Pavel to be more careful after the Isis Moscow terror attack in March which was allegedly organized on Telegram. Perhaps the Russian diplomat corps will want to place a copy of Tolstoy’s “War and Peace” with the Paris detainee to help pass the time.