Home Inflation Persists

It’s the level, though – that’s what matters: the S&P Housing numbers say full steam inflation.

Year-Over-Year

  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.4% annual gain in June, down from 5.9% the previous month.
  • The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 7.4%, down from 7.8% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.5% year-over-year gain, down from 6.9% in the previous month.
  • New York, San Diego and Las Vegas reported the highest year-over-year gains with year-over-year price increases of 9.0%, 8.7% and 8.5%, respectively.

Month-over-Month

  • The National Index posted a 0.5% month-over-month increase while the 20-City and 10-City Composites both posted increases of 0.6% before seasonal adjustment in June 2024.
  • After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a 0.2% change while the 20-City and 10-City Composites posted monthly changes of 0.4% and 0.5%.

Historical

  • Measured from its June 2006 peak, the 10-City Composite is up 56.0%.
  • The 20-City Composite has eclipsed its July 2006 peak by 62.4%.
  • The National Index is up 76.2% from its July 2006 peak.

Chart to make the point?

We think this will reduce the odds of a Fed rate cut in September even more.  In the meantime, market futures are down a good bit, so perhaps some of the spike has come out of the punch bowl, for now?

‘Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

17 thoughts on “Home Inflation Persists”

  1. George,

    Sorry to hear about your Anderson County scrape with the local Texas bureaucrat’s. Red or blue, too many bureaucrats’ true north seems to be finding and exacting those infractions for their own personal Schadenfreude.

    The macroeconomic system has reached a March 2020 8-9/24/24 months peak valuation. Valuations will retreat quickly.
    https://theeconomicfractalist.blogspot.com

    • My “Carnac the Magnificent” aggregate index hit a multi-year low on March 20th 2020.., and has been on a sharp steady climb ever since. Roughly up 146 % in those four plus years.

  2. DJIA & the S&P500
    – At a cursory glance., are both forming what looks like a very nice double top.
    – We will know come Thursday morning – which is the morning after Nvidia releases their financials. Which is what everyone seems to be waiting for.
    – One stock has so much control over the world’s markets is simply amazing. ., and a bit disconcerting.

  3. Im shocked Kemmosabe, shocked Im telling ya!

    F-ing traitors!

    They all ought to be SHOT! Well kinda like just wing em”.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/its-bipartisan-miracle-over-200-bush-mccain-romney-aides-endorse-harris

    The traitorous assholes referenced in article above not worth cost of 1 bullet (.308), let alone cost of lining the shitbags up against a wall and shooting em.

    I actually am referring to current administration and ALL MSM, but would insist we televise it Pay Per View (make a lil scratch for budget balance needs).

    F-ing disgusting – the whole shooting match that is USA today..going sanfrancisco…

    – “I left my shcheisse in San Francisco” – Come on, its a sing along!

    • We refrain from saying things about shooting here. Yes, traitorous, but no trial yet so talk of any mob violence is wholly out of line.
      Write when there’s no rum on the keys

      • I agree with BCN, but not his solution. The way to handle those neocons and RINOs is to locate their holdings, then boycott & bankrupt. They are, by definition, fascists and communists, respectively, and receive close to a billion dollars annually, collectively, for the influence they exert on Congress. If Trump drains the swamp, they have to go to work for a living, and will probably no longer be paid for facetime on CNN.

        And BTW, the article is not their fault. Of COURSE, the Constitution-hating “never Trumper” is going to be a “never-Trumper” (duh!) However, someone had to ask them before they made that public statement, and someone (cough, Alex Soros, cough) has to be making a big deal out of it, now that they have.

        Personally, I consider their public backing of Harris to be an endorsement for Trump, because like I regard George Soros, I consider neocons especially, a bellwether to illustrate THE OPPOSITE OF what’s “good for the country.”

        No one who supports Harris is a patriotic American, no matter how they, or the media, spin their support.

        Ignorant Libs and Democrats have an excuse, for now, because they don’t yet know what she’s about. That excuse goes away between now and the day they vote, and if they’re too lazy to find out that the plans and policies she espouses, when implemented, will irrevocably destroy this country, and the rest of the “free world” along with it, they’re too ignorant or stupid to vote.

        When the neocons favor something, I’m automatically opposed, until I research both what they favor, and its repercussions… and yes, I’m disappointed, insulted, and aggravated when Rove or Cheney or some other PNAC alum shows up on FOXNews or “Hannity” as an “expert.” The part of their politics that’s pro-American is great, but it has become such a small part of their personal politics that it is irrelevant, and can not make up for the harm their pro-war neosocialist dreck causes.

      • Q said,,, “good things sometimes take time”
        “3724
        Dec 18, 2019 10:52:52 PM EST
        Q !!Hs1Jq13jV6 ID: 6d572c No. 7555466
        It must be done right.
        It must be done according to the rule of law.
        It must carry weight.
        It must be proven in the court of law.
        There can be no mistakes.
        Good things sometimes take time.
        Attempts to slow/block the inevitable [Justice] will fail.
        [D]s election interference 2016.
        >Clinton/Hussein ilLEGAL FISA
        [D]s election interference 2018.
        >Mueller
        [D]s election interference 2020.
        >Impeachment
        Projection.
        These people are sick.
        We, the People, are the cure.
        Q”

        I , the Q tard, el-believo, that the time is at hand,
        GITMO is still open for business, slo joe no close.
        Whats the matter joe? u no able to close GITMO?
        I wonder how tomorrow’s history books will read.
        no rum here, but it is 5 o’clock (17:00)

    • AQC, the only way the orange man wins is if they cheat better than the Demonrats. Mox Nix, matters not, different sides of the same coin, as they all kowtow to the powers that were….
      As stated in article above “its a big club and you aint in it…”

    • “V200 Bush, McCain, Romney Aides Endorse Harris”
      Apparently you have a lot higher regard for those people than I. This would constitute a backhanded endorsement of Mr T in my book. Why would you encourage violence against individuals giving a favorable, albeit unintended, endorsement of your candidate ?

  4. My economic’s model projected many years ago that the peaking for real estate for this cycle to be in the window of June to August of 2024. (a bigger range than normal because of the timing dynamics of the last peak in the cycle)

    The thing to keep in mind about my model is that generally the commercial market peaks at a slightly different time than the residential market … so one can look at the peaking as being a sawtooth type of affair versus a unified type of affair.

    Except for the July 2006 (residential) and end of year 2007 (commercial) peaks for the last go around my data has indicated that commercial peaks before residential, but last time around the NINA loans became so widespread they caused residential to peak first. (idealized peak for that cycle was Mar/April 2007).

    On the two occaisions before the last go around my idealized timing hit to the month, which looks to be possible this time around wrt residential pricing at least.

    Interesting fall coming up as the wheels fall off ALL the wagons at the same time. Ride of a LIFETIME coming up?

  5. Commercial rates have come down significantly. The only CD at the bank today over 4% was a 3 month maturity. The Fed follows and lags commercial rates by a couple of months. This would indicate to me that a 1/2 point rate drop is in order before year end; Powell may be forced to accelerate the schedule, despite a bias toward hands-off through the first week in November.

  6. Ed C. 8/27/24
    In the Phoenix area there is a trend developing that is migrating here from the coast. It is the NON-Acceptance of cash at various (still infiltrating) venues. Banks thought it up.
    Can’t find this acceptable so before walking out of as establishment to a different vendor nearby I pointed out the stupidity of buying ready to eat food on a charge card.
    It is trendy to use a card.
    Most folks that use cards for food purchases revolve the charge and add it to their balance forward.
    Interest is added month after month on balances forward.
    The food is already over-priced.
    The whole experience is over and done in about 25 minutes.
    Most of what is bought is excreted within 6 hours.
    You pay more (not a lot on one meal but…) than the charge on the card over the months rides along with real goods when paying a budget amount on the card.
    I don’t eat out on the economy much anymore.
    I had a craving for some fishy food but won’t pay with a card that may end up rolling onto my debt over for months of interest. No thanks. It’s too harsh of a vision, when I flush it down the toilet only 6 hours after consuming it, the symbolism of debt flashes before my eyes…
    NO CASH, NO SALE!

    • A new one I ran into at Tractor Supply was the demand that I provide a phone number for a transaction, with me holding cash in hand. When I refused to give a phone number, I had to sit there patting my foot for a minute or so before the cash register came back and informed the clerk that I would to have proper identification or cash to complete the transaction. $9 plus tax.

      • They do that not for a cash purchase, but for any purchase.

        It lets them link their file on you to the stuff you buy.

        I use a phone number which hasn’t belonged to me in 40 years (but which I have memorized, so the response is spontaneous.) I do the same thing at Harbor Fright and other places that ask. I also NEVER give out an E-Mail addy. It is easier to pretend to be a luddite than expose my inbox to spam from the store, and the 400 other merchants and services to which they sell their acquired E-Mail addresses.

        ALSO, when Tractor Supply went woke, they lost me forever as a customer. I bought an air compressor from TSC some years back. Never heard from them again — not for years, not for any reason. When they got themselves in trouble for entertaining that woke bullshit, they started sending me an E-Mail every day. (Today’s is for the “TSC Neighbor’s Club VISA card”):
        ====================
        Sent by: Neighbor’s Club
        5401 Virginia Way, Brentwood, TN, 37027

        Privacy Policy

        Update your preferences or unsubscribe.

        You have received this email because you signed up for our mailing list.

        To ensure delivery to your inbox (not bulk or junk folders), please add email@ea.tractorsupply.com to your address book.

        See Neighborsclub.com for full terms and conditions.
        ===================

        I did NOT sign up for their mailing list, nor to receive E-Mails for any reason, other than to confirm the arrival of my air compressor, and I did not grant TSC permission to use my personal information for any reason whatsoever, at any time.

        If you click the link to “unsubscribe” from their mailing list, you have just confirmed that the address on-file is a valid, working E-Mail address, which is now worth 4¢ to a list-peddler on IRC instead of a penny, and $200 to some nasty E-Mail blight (like “Orbitz” or “Constant Contact”). Places like this “Neighbor’s Club” thingy purge their rolls once a year, so I just filter it until it goes away on its own.

        The other farm stores have gone online, so TSC is no longer a necessary option, even in places where they’re the only farm store. Rural King beats most of their prices by 15-20 percent and Big “R” and Farm & Home aren’t far behind. There are lots of others. These three are merely scattered all over the part of the Midwest I drive through most of the time (I-40, 70, 80, 90.) I know there’s at least one “mom & pop” farm store chain in East Texas because I shopped there online, once…

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