Trust the Future, Do You?

by

Seriously, we don’t.  No more than we trust edicts and pronouncements.  Encyclicals from the untrustworthy.  We’re out there with Diogenes, looking for the honest souls. Empty-handed, mostly.

The good news, such as it is, has it that this morning’s Focus Section – 20-odd pages on how bad the next couple of years could be – can be safely taken off your reading list.  Besides, sheep can’t read.

A bit less droll is our market outlook, where our natural-born optimism is tempered by digits. Today is a Bank Reserve Settlement Day – sometimes a moment of volatility – and then there’s tomorrow’s CPI read.

All boils down to a “This could be bad…”  Seeing that, it’s cinch ’em up and ride time.

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75 thoughts on “Trust the Future, Do You?”

  1. Deleveraging behind the scenes continues and appears to be growing.
    Once “Turn Around Tuesday” turned around and ATE ITSELF traders had to scramble to cover their “Turn Around” bets.

    NOW … we get o stand outside the tent and wonder about all the racket going on inside the tent. More and more hedge funds and private entities can no longer meet their margin calls, that can be known. We hear their screams from outside the tent BUT WHO? and HOW BIG are they?

    Is a big private entity like Long Term Capital Management that we hear the loudest screams from? Or is it a well know long standing Wall Street firm like Lehman’s was? (too early for it to be a big bank since they can hide their liquidity problems more easily and longer than pure trading firms can)

    EXCITING DAYS!! Maybe the biggest financial meltdown of our lifetimes going on inside that tent … but unlike in 2008 where it was easy to project where the situation was going this time it is out of sight of those of us outside of the tent, and probably for the most part outside the view of the FED itself.

    Reply

    • If any big house goes over the falls I’d bet Fidelity. Fidelity going would destroy many 401K’s which would trigger a .gov bailout/system change.

      Fidelity also has a crazy (if ya ask me but this might make sense to someone else) security borrowing program. I think this borrowing scheme could put Fidelity into a position that it couldn’t cover.

      Through Fidelity’s Fully Paid Lending Program, you can loan to Fidelity certain fully paid or excess- margin securities that Fidelity desires to borrow. In return, you gain the opportunity to earn incremental income on your portfolio through the securities-lending market.

      https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/landing-zones/Fully-Paid-Lending-Program-Investor.pdf

      Reply

      • Interesting…yeah I want to study this lending program info, thank you…I worked for Fidelity for 24 years and probably cold called many of you with Magellan and Puritan info. This company always had high standards and rigorous compliance. A conservative company that monitored every detail in my opinion. Thanks for sharing.

        Reply

        • John and Out of work Steve : this isn’t terribly new. Most account holders receive this offer if they hold securities long in their accounts which the BD would like to have access to (including to loan out for those who desire shorting and / or close a position but need the security to do so). Your BD is then required to restore your holding per agreement. This came along with no / low cost trades financed by PFOF (payment for order flow). Crazy, hey? (out of work) Egor

    • Anon: This must be of the financial rails and CUSIP network that you speak of. Drawing on the experiences of “unauthorized”(by whom were they authorized?) servers sending digital dollars to and fro across the globe with no registration at treasury or the Fed???

      By extension: what happens when everyone wants to account for all the share floats of all the companies listed on the markets? Would we find that much akin to minting fake fiat, how many shares are short and not covered? (It’s another form of the graft game home gamers) one that only the institutions can answer as they are the ones granted prudential authority….. that all goes toilet surfing soonly folks….

      https://youtu.be/lzXt-QB8Vzs

      Reply

  2. Hey Tex,

    When did the World come down with a global case of Whining about Sand in their collective Panties(WASITP)?
    Was it bubba clinton that started this faggoty BS?

    Bunch of dam panty wastes. Endless fuckery from EU, can hardly wait for Russian nuke mole sub to detonate the kneeelers island nation chock full of fuzzy headed foreigners..tick,tick,tick

    Piano playing dicktator still at war with Pooters over who has a bigger Johnson = Dick War.

    israHELL v Iran = Dick War

    xi v TRUMP = dick war.

    eu v TRUMP = dick war…yeah von der laydens’ usually hangs Left, less one of her precious ponies is nearby..neigh neigh whinney whinney.

    Must be WOW – Whip-it Out Wenesday- Whirlybirds, oh my!

    Reply

  3. so the U Haul truck just shows up with signs,,,
    “? LOOK ? here is a rare, behind-the-scenes look at how a group of paid CAA [Central Casting] actors dressed as antifa and BLM literally create a “pop-up protest” – complete with all of the gear, signs and playset materials.”
    https://x.com/TheRubberDuck79/status/1908955727760081127

    Why AM I so Zippity do dah ,,,
    Light and exposure,,,

    Reply

  4. Your A.I. interview .pdf this morning on what is ahead is a classic example of asking the right questions to get the right answers. You have certainly mastered the art of asking the right questions.

    A scary read for sure but a well balanced look at major changes coming beyond any question.

    To the non-subscribers. This is worth the price of subscription.

    Reply

    • DITTO! In caps for emphasis!

      Today’s Focus piece is among the best of blueprints for navigating the various levels of chaos we can anticipate. Nothing is assured, but we can and should position ourselves where we “ought” to have a reasonable chance. Any percent is better than zero percent!

      When God asks why you ignored the flashing warning signs, it’s best to be able to answer “I didn’t.”.

      Reply

  6. When I was in Kindergarden in DC circa 1948 I remember them gathering us all in a big darkened room with lots of chairs which somehow let us keep our heads leaned back.

    Someone daubed our teeth with a thick flouride solution, tasted very strong and chemical and they made us sit there in the semi-dark with our mouths open up to the ceiling for what seemed like at least 30 minutes. I could feel the strong solution dripping down the back of my throat but there was nothing I could do to stop it.

    I hope this excuses me from at least 3 or 4 faux pas at urbansurvival.com.

    Reply

  7. How does Ure Garden Grow, Urban Survivalites ?

    With cockle shells and puppydogtails ? Not here in the wilds of SE Pennsyltucky – no sir.

    Like to Shout Out Vic – resident Garlic Farmer and all around swell guy, not to mention 1st rate Gardener, turned Us on to Rare Seed Co.

    Wife just returned from tractor supply store..without a Duck..dammit.
    Anyways when her studio was built 2 years ago – we had to move/transplant a couple shrubs and trees. Lost one Walnut and one Apple – Summer transplant is risky. But the worst hit to Garden was loss of established Blackberry and Raspberry bushes, saved the elderberry bushes and 1 or 2 Raspberry bushes.

    No one in our area has any Blackberry bushes for sale, and just a few Raspberry bushes. Not sure about rest of Country – in thess parts, fresh Fruits..Berries are some of most expensive scheisse in grocery store.

    Rare Seed co has 2 different variety of Blackeberries – my Granddaughters’ absolute Favorite treat. We mix em up in the home made L-Ruteri & L-Gasseri superfoods/yogurts, and make Her yogi pops..Yum!
    Thx again Vic, and yes ordered a pack of those Strawberry Watermelon seeds and the Matsumoto Blue Aster seeds – love da Asters as they be natives and totally geek out-love blue flowers, why I fertilize the hell out of the Hydrangeas..turns em deep BLUE.

    Thx Again Vic.

    Reply

  8. I used Grok as my AI tool and it also would not verify when I asked if Democrat donors were targeting gig economy workers to protest (that is the rumor of the day) Here is Grok’s answer…

    The rumors you’re referring to seem to suggest a coordinated effort by Democratic donors to mobilize gig economy workers—specifically from platforms like Uber, DoorDash, and Amazon—to protest against Trump and Elon Musk’s policies, with the claim that these workers are being paid wages equivalent to their regular earnings to participate. Let’s break this down logically and see what holds up based on available information and reasoning.

    First, protests against Trump and Musk have indeed been widespread and well-documented, especially as of early 2025. The “Hands Off!” demonstrations on April 5, 2025, spanned all 50 states, with over 1,200 events drawing significant crowds. These protests, organized by a coalition of over 150 groups—including unions, civil rights organizations, and pro-democracy advocates—focused on issues like government downsizing, economic policies, and human rights. The scale and coordination suggest substantial grassroots momentum, which doesn’t inherently require top-down funding from wealthy donors. Movements like this often grow organically from public discontent, though they can be amplified by strategic support.

    The idea of Democratic donors being involved isn’t implausible. Historically, political parties and their backers have funded or supported protests to push narratives—think of the Tea Party’s early backing by conservative donors or the Women’s March in 2017, which had significant progressive donor ties. In this case, anger toward Trump’s administration and Musk’s role (particularly with the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE) has been a rallying point for Democrats. Reports from early February 2025 show Democratic lawmakers joining protests outside the Treasury Department, railing against Musk’s access to sensitive financial data. It’s reasonable to suspect that party-aligned donors might see value in fueling this resistance, especially given Musk’s high-profile alliance with Trump.

    Now, the specific claim about gig economy workers being “ratted” (perhaps meaning recruited or incentivized) and paid wages matching their Uber, DoorDash, or Amazon earnings is trickier to assess. Gig workers—drivers, delivery folks, freelancers—often have flexible schedules, making them theoretically available for daytime protests. They’re also directly affected by economic policies tied to Trump and Musk, like government cuts or shifts in labor regulations, which could hit their bottom line. Paying them to protest would be a clever tactic: it compensates for lost work time, ensures turnout, and leverages a group already frustrated with precarious gig conditions. But there’s a catch—no concrete evidence from credible sources confirms this is happening as of April 9, 2025.

    If this were true, you’d expect some paper trail or firsthand accounts to surface. Protests this big—millions participated, per some estimates—would need serious logistics and funding to pull off payments at scale. Yet, the narrative around the “Hands Off!” events emphasizes volunteerism and broad coalitions, not paid participation. X posts or web reports might fuel these rumors, but without names, dates, or receipts (like payment records or organizer admissions), it’s speculative. Gig workers could just as easily be showing up because they’re mad about their own situation—low wages, no benefits, and an economy that feels stacked against them—not because someone’s cutting them checks.

    On the flip side, the rumor aligns with a common critique of political protests: that they’re astroturfed (fake grassroots) rather than genuine. Trump supporters, for instance, might push this to discredit the movement, pointing to Musk’s own claims of “Trump derangement syndrome” blinding his critics. The White House has deflected by accusing Democrats of wanting to bankrupt social programs for “illegal aliens,” so there’s a clear narrative war here. Still, absent hard proof, the donor-paid-gig-worker angle feels like a theory chasing a conclusion rather than a fact.

    My take? Protests are happening, and they’re big—driven by real anger over Trump and Musk’s moves. Democratic donors might be in the mix, amplifying things behind the scenes; that’s how politics works. But the leap to gig workers being systematically paid equivalent wages to protest feels like a stretch without evidence. It’s possible small-scale incentives exist—organizers sometimes cover transport or meals—but a widespread payroll scheme matching gig earnings would be a logistical beast and hard to hide. I’d say the simpler explanation fits: people are pissed off, gig workers included, and they’re showing up on their own steam. Rumors like this thrive in polarized times, but they need more than whispers to stand up. What do you think—got any specifics fueling this you’d want to dig into?

    Reply

    • all those conspiracy THEORIES have turned out to be true conspriracies.
      You can’t see the trees cause the forest camos’ them
      the money trail is NOT available on the open internet for GROK to see, it is hidden in government files,,, tick tock,,, ya black piller
      We the People Stand with President Trump and the work Elon is doing for US, the people

      Reply

    • GIGO, if all the information is not entrained into the system you are driving, then there will be no reported knowledge. Whats missing and the industry knows better…… AI platforms must be characterized by their perception of the world around them, and that world is formed by the information they’ve ingested. And that home gamers cost a sh@&t ton of money to load (it’s a rev model about as solid as y2k) and you all act surprised that the market is having its web 3.0 movement which is looking an awful lot like web1.0 December 1999… cheers! AI is not a SME. But it is a huge AME amplifier if you use it correctly. LMAO this ride is just getting started .

      Reply

    • I am one of the unpaid protestors.

      I have not witnessed any paid protestors, nor heard of ANY recruitments.

      Anything this big and strong must have dark (Democrat and/or Socialist) money support, right, Homer?

      D’uh, get used to it. Social Security wait times increased, 30k already died waiting to be approved before Graft Master Musk’s chainsaw cut made it worse,:
      https://www.nextgov.com/digital-government/2024/04/30000-died-fiscal-2023-waiting-disability-decisions-social-security/395796/

      Musk paid Trump $288 million to gut your Social Security (and ruin your employment opportunities from tariffs), aren’t you thrilled?
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/31/elon-musk-trump-donor-2024-election/

      ‘In the long run, Tedeschi predicts another “200,000 to 300,000” fewer people in the labor market every year as a result of Trump’s tariffs. That’s before calculating the impact of the retaliatory tariffs economists believe other countries will place on U.S. products. “That’s going to have big direct employment effects” as well, says Hersh.’
      https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/08/trump-tariffs-job-market-impact-will-mostly-be-negative-economists-say.html#:~:text=The%20Budget%20Lab%20at%20Yale%20calculated%20that%20Trump's%20tariffs%20will,million%20people%2C%22%20he%20says.

      https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2025/04/08/retirees-trump-social-security-changes/82992247007/
      ‘The Social Security Administration (SSA) has responded by reducing its staffing target to 50,000 employees, down from the current level of approximately 57,000 employees. The agency has also identified cost savings opportunities in contracts, grants, property, and technology, as well as “common-sense approaches to printing, travel, and purchase card policies.”

      The total savings will exceed $800 million in fiscal 2025, according to the SSA. While that’s a material portion of the estimated $6.5 billion in administrative spending, the sum is still inconsequential, compared to the $110 billion deficit built into its budget for fiscal 2025.

      President Trump wants to end the taxation of Social Security benefits
      During his campaign, President Trump wrote on social media, “Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security.” He has doubled down on that promise since the election. In February, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump would implement the “largest tax cut in history,” including the elimination of taxes on Social Security.

      Trump was quick to identify inefficiencies and effect spending cuts through DOGE, but I’m skeptical about his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security. While the idea certainly has merit, the Social Security trust fund is already on pace to be depleted by 2035. Ending taxes on benefits would accelerate the timeline and bring potential benefit cuts closer.

      To elaborate, the trustees estimate tax revenue will cover only 83% of scheduled benefits when the trust fund becomes insolvent in 2035. That means benefits would automatically be cut by 17% unless Congress finds a fix for the funding problem.’

      Reply

      • anonymous : oh please. The purported gutting of social services is total bunkum. However, we will soon discontinue payments sent to people who are no longer alive / not yet born! The systems are rife with fraud. We don’t know how much money has been set on fire but whatever is saved will be available to help legit citizens in one way or another. Get used to it. The accounting is underway and, as the occasional error is made whiners / whingers like you will point at the one mistake vs. hundreds or thousands or millions of nefarious actors caught and tossed from largesse. We could more easily help those in need if we weren’t hosed by thieves.

        The _really_ frightening part is when people say “but, it’s only 200 or 500 million. A million invested / wasted used to mean something. It still does we just ignore it as a rounding number. It’s not. It’s $500,000,000 every.effing.year!

        Buckle up. Embrace volatility.
        90 days is after July 4.
        Let’s Roll.

        Egor

        Reply

      • anonymous,, is that you? lower case c ?
        writes like a duck, talks, like a duck, walks like a duck
        can it be a DUcK? ducking away by using ‘anonymous’?
        and same ole propaganda links,,,Quack Quack,, aye Homer

        Reply

      • Anon, I still have these feelings about The Brandon operation, voter fraud, and the foul chi that’s been released upon global society back in 2019, and that all the detractors seem to be from that camp.

        All you home gamers will get your SSA checks and not reality COLA inceases(not based on the same growth in money supply that wallstreet used to put a value on Microstartegies earnings before they decided it was easier to play the bankers game than produce anything useful for your computer. Oh and a new economy car will start at $100,000.00 FRNs. And there’s a s&@t ton of Americans that would love to see there job not jacked by H1B arbitrage.

        Reply

  9. “Pills”

    I don’t take any maintenance prescriptions but do take supplements.

    April 15th I’ll be starting a new supplement regime that includes 13 supplements in total, maybe 1/4 cup? LOL I’ll post the list in the future.

    How many supplements do y’all take?

    Reply

    • Too many! But at age 75, I also don’t require any prescription meds. Since most herbals and supplements come from China, you might want to stock up while still possible.

      Reply

    • More than 30 last time I counted. Started weaning off most of them except some aminos, in prep for surgery next week. Doc won’t let me take Ibuprofen now as it thins the blood. My hip bone is grinding this morning and refuses to bear weight. Surgery can’t come soon enough, now.

      Reply

      • from the BCN , this video is good,,, @3hr8min mark is about where he talks about bone healing from red light therapy,,
        Exiled Brain Surgeon: DARPA Mind Control, Quantum Biology & Sunlight Medicine | Dr. Jack Kruse
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiBFtwbyv44
        it is a long video,,,, worthy of being viewed.
        you can use the cursor along the bottom time line to view what subject is being discussed, they cover a wide range of topics

        I know this is repeated info,,, but are you using near infared light on your hip? and does it help if yes

        Reply

        • I have seen the Dr. Jack Kruse video. Excellent stuff. I am using NIR+RED on my knees, which are starting arthritis and protesting too much ‘gimping’ from the hip. But the hip joint is gone, and has grown bone spurs around the edges to complicate things. The Red panel helps the knees in their early stages, but the hip is too far gone for rescue I’m afraid..

          I do plan to use some bone-regenerative stuff after the surgery, to regrow bone to the metal parts and strengthen the joint. Red light and also weak TENS electric stimulation of the area to deposit calcium.

      • Good luck to you, Hank, on your hip surgery. Please do all your exercises post surgery, plus walk and go up and down stairs. I also am having surgery next week, the third on my right foot. More metal pins.

        Reply

        • And good luck and healing to you also, Nancy. What is it about female feet that break so easily? Friend of mine broke a bone in her foot just casually pushing a shopping cart at the grocery store. I’m fortunate to have a single-level home, and I already have three grab-bars installed in the bathroom and tub areas.

  10. An 88 y.o. here. I have read your writings for years, trying to make sense of this nonsensical world. Hopeless task. Thought you might be interested in one of my memories. In the 1940s, my hometown, Marshall, Texas became one of the first in the state(?) to put fluoride in the city water. My elementary school was visited annually by a group of government(?) dentists to check on our oral condition. As far as I know, there were no published results of the study. So, for good or bad I have been a life-long fluoride test dummy.

    Reply

    • Julia. Nice to have you here. Our senior senior @choices hasn’t posted in a while so nice to hear from someone older than me.

      I did some water work in Tanzania 20 years ago and saw the impact of very high levels of fluoride in drinking water. It’s ugly. If you want to do a deep dive (really deep) into the subject, here is a recent article.

      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468227624004277

      I continue to have mixed feelings about adding extreme low levels of fluoride to drinking water to prevent tooth decay. It is certainly controversial. Children with developing teeth and bones seem to benefit but hard to find benefits to older people. I have not seen solid studies on the negative issues presented by RFK Junior. I remain open minded.

      Here is a good article on the subject.

      https://www.businessinsider.com/fluoride-in-water-why-it-is-controversial-risks-benefits-2024-11

      P.S. if you ever make sense of this nonsensical world, please let us know.

      Reply

  11. Temu & Shein

    The White House announced late on Tuesday that it would increase duties to *90 per cent of the parcel’s value* or a *$75 flat fee* that would *rise to $150*. The duty comes in on May 2, and the flat-fee increase will take effect after June 1.
    —————————————
    If you want to order anything from Temu or Shein you best do it NOW and make sure the package will arrive BEFORE May2nd!!

    Should we call this the “Amazon Destroys the Competition Act”? Jeff Bezos campaign contributions to DJT seem to be paying off in spades!

    Reply

  12. Forgot my link:
    —————————
    Temu & Shein

    “The White House announced late on Tuesday that it would increase duties to *90 per cent of the parcel’s value* or a *$75 flat fee* that would *rise to $150*. The duty comes in on May 2, and the flat-fee increase will take effect after June 1.”
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/us-tripling-of-small-package-duties-delivers-further-blow-to-shein-and-temu/ar-AA1CAc8I
    —————————————
    If you want to order anything from Temu or Shein you best do it NOW and make sure the package will arrive BEFORE May2nd!!

    Should we call this the “Amazon Destroys the Competition Act”? Jeff Bezos campaign contributions to DJT seem to be paying off in spades!

    Reply

  13. People just don’t see the strategy used by the controllers/owners as Rockerfeller used,,, by paying for and busing a bunch of old biddies around the country side to push for prohibition, so you could not run alcohol in ure model T, but needed to buy Standard Oil’s gasoline, because of lawfare, a form of warfare, against we the people,,, then they gave US back permission to drink it, but had to pay a tax for it,,, how communist can he be?
    as nelson then moved our manufacturing to China, under Nixon
    seems to be a lot of evil from that family of globalists

    the evil bastards still are using the same old playbook, because it has worked so well in the past

    Reply

    • D jr. is about as VILE/EVIL a Human as they get .

      Nathan jr same, Grigory jr – again rotted apple did not fall far from dead apple tree.

      Reply

  14. “This could be bad…”
    – Good Q&A this morning [ PDF ] well worth the price of admission.
    – I believe that the debt load, around the world., but especially in the U.S. will play a bigger roll in the march towards a depression. I do not know which domino will topple first., but once it does, it will be very hard., make that ‘extremely’ hard to stop the cascade. Which will feed into all aspects of the economy / finance – government and society. Consumer debt alone is now over a trillion dollars. A lot of people are going to get smacked hard when the debt collapse starts. Consumers are the easiest targets for the debt-collectors and they will suffer the first onslaught of the collection mania. Triggering an even worse financial collapse.
    – I believe that violence, in and around all major cities, will occur sooner than stated., and cause a much wider and deeper destruction in the social fabric of those cities. Police agencies are going to be overwhelmed rather fast. Fire departments also. Major inner-city roads will get blocked, limiting any kind of response. Just how many National Guard troops show-up or choose to stay home and protect their own families., will be interesting. And with an entire city in a violent up-roar – a couple of companies of unwilling troops won’t be enough. Then add on – it won’t be just be ‘one’ city., but several in every state., all at once. I don’t believe there are enough troops to enforce a martial law order.

    There was / is a lot of good information within that “Depression – pdf ” and hopefully raised a few questions in everyone’s thinking. I really don’t believe you can over prepare for such an event / disaster.., unless you are touting it for everyone to see and know about.
    Being rather secretive with your efforts and plans and defenses could prove to be very beneficial.
    .
    Though the odds of a full-blown depression are not that great – it is something to consider and take seriously.

    Reply

    • sounds like good reason for trump to declare a national emergency, invoke the insurrection act and cancel the midterm elections

      Reply

  15. Tariffs 101…. China… 125%…can’t import US food…so US sells to Europe who sells to China… Just like Russia sells oil to India who sellls to Europe… In the end Europe food is more costly than US and China has riots but blames Europe.

    Reply

  17. Regarding George’s pdf today, sobering and awesome!. But I wonder about ability to stay in the “grey man” category. If not accepting the CBDC’s, forced vaxes, or UBI, how do you retain your property and your health when paper bux be worthless? How do you pay property taxes, license fees, utilities, etc? PM’s and barter might work outside the system but guv gonna look at your social credit score before they release your digital payment credits. Seems “the house” always wins. And some of us are not cut out for guerilla warfare. Just sayin’….

    Reply

  19. I am on my second one of these keyboards:

    https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0D9BHM994/ref=twister_B09QRWMVD7?_encoding=UTF8&th=1

    It has brown tactile mechanical switches. They are clickety, but not so clackity. I trashed the USB connector on the first; otherwise, it was still good. Be sure to hang on to the spare keys; you will eventually need’em. It will throw keys if you drop from sufficient height. It has a useful lighted keyboard, which I have come to appreciate. The keyboard lighting is programmable, though I haven’t bothered with the new one. Price is not too bad for a good keyboard. It is underrated.

    Reply

  20. You could feel it. Just looking at the options boards and the futures.., and bingo – Trump opens his mouth and the market skyrockets !
    – I do wonder just how many short-sellers were skinned-alive in the race to the top. Up 10% in the NASDAQ in the matter of minutes. Wow !
    – I was thinking of getting in earlier this morning with a couple of options/calls.., but I didn’t – just felt wrong. Shoulda/coulda/woulda.., but nope. Kind of glad I didn’t.

    – Now what are the bonds going to do?

    A real horse-&-pony show…, but who benefits ?

    Reply

    • “Trump Speaks and Stocks Spike, after Trump Spoke and Stocks Plunged” (Makes You Wonder, Why even Own Stocks?)

      “So now we’re down to stock markets spiking or plunging in a huge manner based on what the President says. It’s no longer earnings or revenue growth or AI mania or whatever. But presidential announcements. This is what happens when edgy traders and algos and people thinking all this is a video game react, after the gigantic run-ups of stock prices in recent years to these precariously lofty levels.

      But the huge spike, following the selloff, also evoked further parallels with the Dotcom Bust and the crash of the Financial Crisis, during the middle of which these types of spikes had occurred.”

      https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/09/trump-speaks-and-stocks-spike-after-trump-spoke-and-stocks-plunged-makes-you-wonder-why-even-own-stocks/

      Reply

      • That was my take – Trump deliberately messing with the Federal Reserve / Treasury. .., but at a huge risk. If that is true – he is one dumb-ass carnival-barker. You simply can’t trash the stock market like that and walk away clean.

        Reply

  22. Ure second depression PDF was fun as depression discussions go. Could turn out to be timely.

    When there are multi-trillion dollar derivative markets deleveraging, swings in financial instruments can get very extreme. Getting caught in squeezes becomes a real issue for active traders. The deleveraging probably isn’t over, and trying to be on the correct side of the next wave of panic might be, well, not such a good side bet. I have heard figures of 20 to 1 average leverage being thrown out for the carry trade side bets, so potential margin calls are going to require a lot of liquidity dialed up very fast. Look for continued instability.
    There is also the issue of buying into media explanations of causes and effects. The sell-off may have been exacerbated by the tariff’s, but it started before the big tariff stick was swung. Likewise, the temporary slowdown in tariff implementation may have helped with the rally, but an overdone sell-off with way too much short money lining up is a prescription for a bear market rally. Media causes and effects are frequently cursory observation of happenstance, not real analysis. People really in the know are lining up to ride the next wave of panic, not giving away their positions to media leaches.

    Reply

  25. re: “Trust the” .. AI .. “Do You?”
    feat: Shut the front door, Hal !

    Folks,
    Apples and oranges may be different, but funnily enough, they each lend themselves to being peeled.

    I perused a ‘free to use’ “Best Brokers” chart from last July after the April bitcoin halving (ie: power consumption doubled). By that point, ‘Best Brokers’ graph of the cost of electricity to mine one bitcoin in the USA oscillated between $110,000 and $130,000. I figure for their stated US production of about 7.1 btc per hour using 6.067 million kWh is equivalent to approximately 8.5 Wh per satoshi.

    Separately I asked ChatGPT how much Wh it consumes per query (ChatGPT does not offer a personal pronoun option for itself like Deep Seek). It said a 2022 research paper (unnamed) published a rate of 0.02 to 0.05 per query. ChatGPT went on to say that version 4 is likely to use a bit more power perhaps 0.1 Wh “in some cases”. It asked me if I wanted that compared to Google! As an aside Google Environment publishes 0.30 Wh per legacy Google search query.

    I told ChatGPT that the IEA (International Energy Agency in Paris under the OECD) quotes 2.9 Wh per ChatGPT query. Are you (ChatGPT) telling me the truth?

    ChatGPT told me the IEA’s 2.9 Wh per query could be true especially for version 4 and including data centre, cooling, and other infrastructure supports. However ChatGPT said it had given me an accurate “raw model inference”, just the neural network, of 0.1 Wh or less. It concluded that the IEA figure or “full-figure estimate” is “valid and likely more accurate for real-world usage. Thanks for catching that. You weren’t wrong to question it”.

    ChatGPT did not ask me if I wished to ask it any more questions.

    Reply

  26. Tim Walz invested his entire $50 million fortune in shorting Tesla stock. Yesterday, he was hit with a margin call, but with USAID canceled and no funds to cover it, his wealth has now dropped to zero.
    Do you feel sorry for him?

    A. No
    B. Yes

    https://x.com/WHLeavitt/status/1910117755753312440

    From a parody account. I have no idea whether it’s true, but it sure is funny…

    d’Lynn: Have you experience with, or curiosity about “quantum mathematics?” If so, it might behoove you to latch onto a copy of last night’s Coast to Coast AM.

    Reply

  28. (“our AI scanners reassure us that “I understand your skepticism regarding the spontaneity of the ‘Hands Off’ protests and the possibility of participants being compensated. However, after reviewing available information, I found no credible evidence to suggest that these protests were orchestrated events involving paid demonstrators.”)

    Ai said this…

    (“Funding for paid demonstrations often comes from a mix of sources, including philanthropic organizations, political donors, and activist networks. Some reports suggest that groups like the Tides Foundation, Open Society Foundations (founded by George Soros), and Rockefeller Brothers Fund have financially supported certain protest movements.
    These funds typically flow through nonprofits and advocacy groups, which then distribute resources to organizers. In some cases, corporate sponsors or wealthy individuals contribute to causes they align with politically or ideologically. However, the exact financial pathways can be complex, with multiple layers of funding and indirect support.”)

    I remember them attempting to start one here… an acquaintance was there some guys going around offering five grand cash money if they would do some destruction and ten grand if they beat someone up or started a violent event..the person I know said dam that’s not what they thought was ethical to do..many made protection lines to stop those willing to cash in on who was paying them from doing damage or violence.

    Reply

    • 120-odd simultaneous protests scattered all over CONUS, using many identical signs…?

      That is not proof of a single origin, but the likelihood of it happening spontaneously is considerably less than the filling of royal flushes, in 5 consecutive hands of 5-card draw…

      Reply

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