Trump’s Tumbler

With a year from the election of Donald Trump, it’s time to begin work on our economics (and therefore market) outlooks for 2018.

As a starting point for this seasonal review I wanted to begin this morning with a look at two years of data in order to assess whether economic  progress has been “real” or “perceptual.” 

After coffee, headlines and those damn bullish charts that as of last week had been calling this bull market run spot-on for over a year..

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Comments

Trump’s Tumbler — 13 Comments

  1. “Life is eternal, and Love is immortal, and death is only a horizon, and a horizon is nothing save the limit of our sight.”– Rossiter Worthington Raymond, 1840-1918 and…

    “Death is not extinguishing the light, but putting out the lamp because the dawn has come.” — Rabindranath Tagore

  2. I note this stuff, but don’t generally post anywhere about it, since it’s obvious to thinking people, and the non thinkers are going to go with whatever the MSM pumps into their heads.

    The following is not a commentary on Messrs. Trump, Moore, or Jones, but is a media rant against yellow journalism…

    Text of Trump’s comments on Roy Moore:

    ” Q Mr. President, are you ready to talk about Roy Moore at all?

    THE PRESIDENT: Yeah, I’ll be talking about him. I can tell you one thing for sure: We don’t need a liberal person in there, a Democrat — Jones. I’ve looked at his record. It’s terrible on crime. It’s terrible on the border. It’s terrible on the military. I can tell you for a fact, we do not need somebody that’s going to be bad on crime, bad on borders, bad with the military, bad for the Second Amendment.

    Q Is Roy Moore, a child molester, better than a Democrat? He’s an accused —

    THE PRESIDENT: Well, he denies it. Look, he denies it. I mean, if you look at what is really going on, and you look at all the things that have happened over the last 48 hours, he totally denies it. He says it didn’t happen. And, you know, you have to listen to him also. You’re talking about, he said 40 years ago this did not happen. So, you know —

    Q Are you going to campaign for Roy Moore?

    THE PRESIDENT: I’ll be letting you know next week. But I can tell you, you don’t need somebody who’s soft on crime, like Jones.”

    -source: whitehouse.gov

    Mr. Trump did not endorse Mr. Moore, he “undorsed” Mr. Jones.

    The inference that Trump’s comments are an endorsement is a media fabrication.

    I happened to be close to a TV which was on CNBC or FoxBusiness when Trump was walking to Marine-1 and the media asked these questions. I wondered, when I heard the exchange, how the MSM would spin them…

    BTW, note the second question. Moore is not a “child molester.” He has been neither convicted, nor ever charged with a crime.

    Injecting a term into the question is a means of validating a nonexistent charge, and one of the ways the “mainstream” sways their readership or viewership into believing, and accepting as fact, something which isn’t. By dumping such a term into an exchange that’s time-limited, like a televised debate or a President’s walk to a motor vehicle, the person queried hasn’t time to both refute the wording of the question and answer its substance.

    The reason I source most of my news from overseas is I don’t like slugging through any more 5600Å print than I have to…

    • Personally I don’t care who gets in office. As long as their not owned. Write their own bills is willing to and reads the bills he votes on whether he votes yea or nae according to his personal convictions.

    • Thank you, a refresher course on mindless propaganda combat is important, we are all suffering from the daily onslaught.

  3. Something is amiss. Trump put a tariff of
    20 percent on lumber from Canada where most lumber comes from costing home builders and consumers an extra hit. My neighbor who owns a pharmaceutical company in Beijing who just built a million plus new home here has mysteriously pulled up stakes. He put the house on the market for a few months and ended up renting it he is gone lock stock and barrel rumour has it trump wants to put a 45%
    Tariffs on anything built in China or so Korea and that my friend an American went back to China to develop other markets. This could be diasterous in my view if true

    • I think he is on the money with the tariffs. All goods and services brought into the us should be. They tariff American goods.
      Any company making money in the us should be paying taxes on money earned here to no matter where their headquartered. I read once that conservatively 37 trillion in untaxed dollars made in the Us a being held outside the borders.

      • You say <<>> Well … ok but please remember, that not being an American doesn’t mean being dumb because your rabbit hole would lead to be told very quickly that “US companies making money in Canada, China, Europe should also be paying taxes in Canada, China, Europe. I am from Canada and I vote with you on this because since Canada has a trade deficit with the US we, as a country, would have a net gain. Be careful for what you wish for as you may actually get it … and be worst off.

        Alas, life is not as black and white as this – to my knowledge, most Canadian companies selling goods to the US have set-up a company in the US and vice versa.

        As an American, if I may suggest, you should focus on so called real American companies not paying taxes in the US because of financial tax structuring. We have the same situation here in Canada where international companies use complex structure to export their profit to “low taxation” countries.

        If you pick a fight, pick one with least downside to you. e.g. you really think that taxing canadian lumber at 20% is the solution and that canadian companies will absorb indefinitely the added cost, come on smell the coffee it is morning, the cost will be passed to the house builders and eventually to consumers. Importing elsewhere isn’t that much betterif you insist punishing canadians, your transportation will be higher therefore … well you get the picture.

      • This tariff problem has been on as long as the U.S. has been in existence.

        Not charging a tariff (or tax, as that’s what it is!) makes goods and services more attractive as everyone in the U.S. is able to spend more money to get whatever – it is good for our international neighbors as they will ease tariffs against U.S. companies levied in their countries. It can build trust and is an effective way to further relations as business is how the world ‘runs’.

        Getting reactionary and slapping tariffs willy-nilly speaks of desperation!

  4. To paraphrase Kelly Bundy: Donald Trump is on the horns of an enema – if he doesn’t endorse Roy Moore, there will be another democrat in the senate, and if he does, he has to deal with the fallout from the MSM. Personally, I feel that the past is the past, and whatever he allegedly did, it’s way past time to even think about. We’ve never had a clear and concise way to ask for sex, and it’s all about innuendo, escalating, backtracking and escalating again. If a man is aggressive sexually, he’s considered lecherous, yet if he’s not aggressive sexually, he’s considered a loser and a failure as a man. I’m not saying that Roy Moore is right, just that back in the day, that’s what was done. The only difference is that someone is now willing to talk about it. I doubt things are much different today, other than the fact that a guy can get a charge of “sexual harassment” just by looking at a woman. Now companies are even afraid to have Christmas parties!

    Meanwhile, everyone enjoy Thanksgiving. I’ll do the same, though I do need to think about staying light enough to take an AFF course.

  5. Yo G,

    the current Bitcoin price Ure sighting is a little lite. The Bitcoin Cash hard fork gave each and every Bitcoin owner/holder exactly one New Bitcoin Cash Coin. Last checked Bitcoin Cash was $1278, and so the real price of Bitcoins is 9528. Speaking of FREE things for those smart enough to take advantage (profit)my free tip for fun and profit on the Blockchain …BUY BUY BUY hand over foot the stock symbol RIOT. This is NEW hot MoMO (momentum) stock specializing in Blockchain tech, and yes they have contracts with the big banks!!! Come on a Blockchain tech company called RIOT! Happy Turkey Day