With a year from the election of Donald Trump, it’s time to begin work on our economics (and therefore market) outlooks for 2018.

As a starting point for this seasonal review I wanted to begin this morning with a look at two years of data in order to assess whether economic  progress has been “real” or “perceptual.” 

After coffee, headlines and those damn bullish charts that as of last week had been calling this bull market run spot-on for over a year..

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Everyone's Happy! (Except the Turkey)
Markets are the Turkey; Pass the Paint