Before we get started with the news, collapse of civilization, and never-ending excessive government, let’s have a “group moment” and look into the future.
Channeling the Future
The early futures pricing had the Dow and the S&P up. Yet, the dollar was stronger, too. Which often (but not always) means it will “take less dollars” for internationalists to “buy the Dow.” Which makes it appear the market is going down.
Just like wild-eyed inflation makes markets SEEM to go up.
Big-time Financial Blowhards are quick to tout the winning companies that do show significant long-term growth. However, even these comparisons are more than slightly odiferous.
That’s because, over time, the majority of companies fail.
According to Investopedia, when the original (12 stock) Dow average was coined, here’s who was in it: “American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, Distilling & Cattle Feeding, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, North American, Tennessee Coal and Iron, U.S. Leather, and U.S. Rubber.”
Any of these ring a bell? I don’t know what happened to American Cotton, American Sugar, American Tobacco follow-ons got sued, so they weren’t the kind of companies we’d expect to invest in. Chicago Gas? Distilling and Cattle? General Electric is the first long-term winner by name.
While we might be able to sort-of remember U.S. Rubber which became one of the big tire companies, I think. Even so, looks to me like the odds long-term for the buy and hold crowd runs about 1 in 6.
Having said that, our Aggregate Index USA vs. Rest-of-World oscillator is hinting (based on early futures and early Europe trading) to be ready for a downturn as early as next week.
Toss in the additional risks of holding U.S. anything with Russia saber rattling and Biden talking us into more peril, here’s how it looks to us. (*group moment begins).
“I am channeling a slight up move at the open. I see it peaking withing minutes, but a further peak around 26 minutes into trading. A slight backoff at 45-minutes in, and perhaps a final peak at the end (on the :30) of the first hour of trading today.”
(We pause to chant: “Aum manu pad my banc.”)
“Next, I channel the market beginning its turn at 10:43 AM Eastern. From there, I see a quick sell-off of 300-points into the close. The hoi palloi will have their money off the table by 11 AM, square with the banks by noon, and be on the Long Island Expressway long before working turds like us a unbound from food slavery.”
Quite a specific vision, huh?
“But wait! There’s MORE! I see an alternative day. Competing with the main vision. One that continues this week’s short-squeeze and – as it does – the market soars with only a pause ahead of the European close. Closing on the short-squeeze high, the Big Commercials who sell into the day’s maniacal peak, short the close and make a pile on Tuesday’s lower open after “unexpected events” this weekend.”
Mass Consciousness Vs. Data
As we have *laboriously* explained, there are always alternative futures and often, the size event or energy to change course can be dramatically small.
Balance of Trade
We like this to decrease over time. If it doesn’t, then we are robbing Peter to pay Joe. (Say, you look like Peter!) Here’s how you’ll be robbed over time.
Without putting a pencil to it, most of the decline in the deficit was due to dollar appreciation vs. the Euro and such. Not due to economic genius.
We still don’t make things here, anymore.
Only by Refinancing a Home can you really “get at” any of the big dough most of us leverage our way into, over time.
“Personal income increased $89.3 billion, or 0.4 percent at a monthly rate, while consumer spending increased $152.3 billion, or 0.9 percent, in April. The increase in personal income primarily reflected an increase in compensation. The personal saving rate (that is, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 4.4 percent in April, compared with 5.0 percent in March.”
Thing is, when legal fictions rule, economic fictions are all part of the Popular Delusion, as Mackay wrote. BTC was $28,975 earlier.
Detached from the Delusion, we grope ahead. Only to discover…
More Hard Famine Talk
Half of America is in drought.
Which people aren’t paying enough attention to, so let’s keyword our way through:
- While grim, it’s not ALL bad because as a Colorado TV station reported “… it shows areas of improvement along the Front Range and eastern plains.”
- However, in Washington (the state) State keeps drought emergency status in parts of 8 counties.
- Meanwhile, stories like Risk of food insecurity threatens record 36% of Brazilian families -study remind us we still have a global and massive “too many people problem.”
- Minneapolis Star-Tribune goes much easier on Joe Blow than they should. But, at least they’re seeing the situation like we do: Sanctions against Russia risk exacerbating global famine, says new analysis.
As we explained yesterday, Walk-Back Joe has the US playing energy sanctions roulette, but Russia energy is still powering Europe. Biden’s advisors are a pack of jackals and fools. But, I repeat myself.
Famine and Climate Debacle Foreseen
Go with me on this for a second: We know that weather patterns change over time. Record Ice at the moment in the Artic, for example. (Or was it Antarctic?)
When I read stories like ‘Time running out’: US, Germany intensify climate change fight, I am appalled at the utter LACK of food contingency and Water Contingency work being done. How many of the climate wankers grow any significant part of their own food?
The media COULD be driving in this (useful if you like to eat) direction. But, instead, we’re rolling serial bullshit festivals whining about (pardon this) shit we can’t change – like telling Autonomous China what to do with coal fire plants.
I mean at some point, the bullshit has to stop and people gotten get to work not on more “powers” and “overreach” and ego stretching. But on the hard, more -practical like water consumption reduction, fertilizer increase – better distribution – and propagating reduced water seed.
Oh, wait. Can’t talk so plainly. Why, such thinking would be:
- And – more Scientific
Crap about NYC and Florida underwater are useless. Running out of food in the Depression of 2023 is something a REAL representative government would actually be working on at the high level. Not the slop and meaningless bullshit like Paris Accords. If China’s not in, screw the rest of world, let’s get to work on it in America, huh?
But is “the work” stealing and influencing elections, playing grantsmanship, stifling critical science, stoking political division? Or – as proposed here – a program of measurable deliverables that don’t cost much and have huge ROIs?
Put another way, American needs vegetables and foodstuffs. Instead, we got climate changers.
I want a refund.
You Are Right to Worry
By now, unless you live a totally insular life, you are probably hip to Documents Shed Light on Secret U.S. Plans for Apocalyptic Scenarios.
While the guts of this story is backward-looking, it is still worth the time.
The reality – untouched in most “contingency plans” – is that there are some contingencies where the actual “levers of power” get broken.
This is one of the “unadmitted facts” of contingency planning. Take a triple shot of EMP unleashed on the US by a smaller global player (like Iran). Even though the specific nukes would likely be of post-Soviet inventories, the likely outcome would be a very broken USA. You can’t assert “power” over people without electrical power to spread the word.
I sometimes wake up in the middle of the night, worrying about such things. Which is when a cool sip of water and another melatonin under the tongue is useful.
If mushrooms go up anywhere, we’d like something stronger in the way of drugs.
Rip N. Reed’s Desk
Don’t bang any monkeys this weekend: Monkeypox: Nine cases identified in seven states including New York says CDC.
Where are the medical bureaucrats when we need ’em? Ask Uganda as Farmers cry out for vaccines as anthrax ravages districts. One plane ride away, friends.
ATR: BBQ, CNC, Argon
Following our own advice, vehicles are full and so are the fridge and both freezers. The hard part now is figuring what to eat first. Gassed up Tuesday.
Might put together a (SainSmart) CNC Genmitsu 3018 Pro and put the 4030 expansion kit on it. Got a number of 3D printer projects in the pipeline.
New loading crane for the pickup should arrive tomorrow (though USPS tracking says that dubious).
And tomorrow, mainly the charts on PN. How to shop used tools special on ShopTalk Sunday. Not sure what to do about ShopTalk Monday, yet.
Off to hotrod the riding mower. Heat’s coming on next week and trying to get the outdoor work done while it’s comfortable.
Have a great weekend, and write when you get rich,