The “pop-up” day of mourning for departed President George H.W. Bush provides us an opportunity to ask a few very pertinent questions.
Tomorrow, as you’ve heard, the stock and bond markets will take a day off. And, as the Augusta Chronicle headlines “Post offices to be closed Wednesday for day of mourning for George H.W. Bush.”
Elsewhere, we read that the last time the passing of a President resulted in a national day of mourning was January 2, 2008 when George R. Ford passed.
The closures frame an interesting social problem: How American’s deal with death.
My visiting consigliere noted that he’s been to an increasing number of funerals lately – since he’s part of the “gray wave” of Boomers we’re in, too.
“I don’t like funerals, mostly. What’s much better is when there’s a remembrance gathering when some time has past. So the family can get past the shock of death. After a month, or two, rememberance gatherings are much happier affairs: The PERSON and their CONTRIBUTIONS are remembered and there’s less “shock of the loss” going on. Fewer tears, more lessons…that kind of thing.”
I considered it useful. Might it make sense to make “President’s Day” in February an additional day longer? Over time, as the country ages, we might even add further days… Why, I can picture 300 years out having a President’s Week…
The social reality problem is more political in nature – and I hate to be rude, but someone needs to ask: Since Bush was a republican, couldn’t democrats show up and work tomorrow?
See: America’s sociopolitical landscape has always struck us as a bit odd. When Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day rolls around, the sad reality is very few people remember the fine works and lofty ideals. Instead, it’s a “day off” or the plagiarism discussion makes the rounds.
National Holidays seem in board decline: I may be one of the few citizens who calls military people I know on Veterans Day to say “Thank you for your Service,” too. You mean the Fourth of July isn’t National jet ski day?
At the risk of being politically incorrect here, we will be writing columns on our regular schedule tomorrow both on UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics. I expect corporate America will keep on trucking, too. UPS and FedEx trucks will be out…
That fact alone, plus the “rush to close” places like the U.S. Supreme Court, reminds us uncomfortably of the great schism between the working class tax payers and the ruling class tax spenders.
Tomorrow appears to be a “ruling class” holiday and we wonder if the Elder Bush would have endorsed that?
Let’s Be Straight on Climate, Too
As long as we’re picking at the news flow today, let’s have another reality check, shall we?
Outfits like the U.K. Guardian are off doing the usual hand-wringing about how “‘We are last generation that can stop climate change’ – UN summit…” Meanwhile, the BBC touts “Sir David Attenborough: Climate change ‘our greatest threat’”
Well fine. Except for one small detail: When you live the life of a data monk, you stumble on inconvenient Truths – like the fact that the U.S. has already done more to reduce its natonal carbon footprint that any other country in the world.
And not by a small margin. In fact, in the data summary chart here, you’ll see that the U.S. last year reduced carbon by 42-million tons. But, the slick-talking European socialist effete club (the Ure-a-pee’in Union) actually increased its carbon dumping by 42 million tons.
Who needs to sign WHAT?
“You mean even without signing the Climate deals, we are leading the pack to clean up our act?”
Well, d’uh. That’s what I’m telling you.
But this is all because there is something else going on, in case you didn’t read Daniel Yergin’s “The Commanding Heights : The Battle for the World Economy: back when.
Understand this well: There is a data driven Reality and there’s the social fun-house mirror version. One’s scientifically “real” and one is a monetization.
Take the riots in France, for example. On the week of rioting, the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board explains it as a “global carbon tax revolt:” and explains that “The French are the latest to refuse to sacrifice growth for green piety.” Quite so.
But memes run wild on the Internet. When you tie-up climate=speak with the recent California wildfires, you get what the Mercury News headlines as :“Internet conspiracies link wildfires to takeover schemes.”
Thus, the battles to watch are “in the valley” where reality is less obvious than it is along the ridges at the top data levels.
Digital Mob Rule is getting a foothold. It should be in your face in 2019 here in the USA.
For the longest time in this country, we had a “semi-honest” mainstream media that was given “custodianship” of reality by the powers that be. But then came Donald Trump – wrestling away control by going consumer-direct via Twitter and doing lots of White House Live direct feeds.
“Commanding the Heights” – the information flows – is where the battle for tomorrow is…This means you will occasionally see a longish story like “Digital-media bubble is bursting. That’s hurting generation of promising young journalists” floating about:
It’s there because the former “custodians of “agreed reality” (which differs widely from data reality) want their power back. Old media is dying hard.
They’re wishfully writing about getting the genie back in the keyboard.
While our main emphasis around here is on long wave economics – and how the present bottoming of interest rates – and the Fed’s too-fast raising – may crash the system, we also enjoy a good round of Staying Grounded in a world that’s flipped out.
For Today? The Fed is Winning
You can see how their gingerly handling of rates (and intraday easy money) plus the international picture, is (so far) floating markets past the collapse inflation point. The Valley of Financial Death – the replay of 1929.
See the yellow line in this chart?
This is how the Dow Jones of the late 1929 period lines up with the modern S&P 500. Yes, we might discuss whether 30 stocks in 1929 represented the US economy about as well as the S&P 500 does today, but that’s really the kind of “grown-up conversation” we handle on our Peoplenomics.com subscriber site. But, yes, it includes the S&P futures as of 6:30 AM Central today as a projected data point…
So, where does all this leave us? (Besides floating over the financial abyss?)
ADP Employment data has been pushed to Thursday. Fed Boss Jerome Powell’s testimony for today has been cancelled, and we won’t see expected Trade and Productivity data until Thursday now… No idea if anyone will come in and release the Red beige book this afternoon.
Hmmm… Partly sunny and 45 in D.C. today, so I seriously doubt it…day off, right? I’m sure the banker class will be out somewhere remembrancing all over the place…
As far as we know, the federal unemployment data will still drop Friday.
“So, What Else Matters Today?“
One of Pappy’s sayings was “If a country wants to fix its economy and grow leaps and bounds…fight a war with the United States.”
Pappy’s right, of course. Look what war with the U.S. has done for European and Asian countries and ask would England or Germany or Japan be where they are today without a U.S. conflict to school them? Methinks nay.
So when a story comes along like “Apple assembler Foxconn considering iPhone factory in Vietnam: state media” I have to just chuckle. The more things change, the more they remain the same,
And we spend money on the damnedest things. For example “People drink twice as much alcohol over the holidays, survey finds.” You mean people didn’t already know that?
And, just in time for your Christmas shopping, here comes CNN with “Bombardier Global 7500 vs Gulfstream G650: Battle of the private jets.” You’ll need a bigger tree.
Look for border jumping illegal aliens to begin creeping back in to the headlines – packaged by junior junior journalist-wannabe’s (who’ve been programmed by liberal profs to be social just us weirdos) as undocumented migrants for their readers of dimmer of wit as “Caravan migrants begin to breach border as frustration with slow asylum process grows.”
Breach du jour
Here’s yet-another reason to “code your passwords:” Quora says 100 million users hit by ‘malicious’ data breach.
Coding is simple: Just add a prefix, suffix, or somewhere in the middle where you plug-in a few letters of the site you’re setting up for.
If your password was something like “example” a Quora coded password might be “qpassword” or “examplequo.” Even “passquoword” embeds it.
Key thing is you only want a password to work on exactly ONE SITE.
What makes data breaches work for the slime that do ’em is they are easy. You port an email address in as a “user ID” to a largish list of banks and brokerages and port in the passwords and you might be able to do some digital pilfering. Run macro, wire money to a shadow bank, resell the hacked list on the dark web… rinse and repeat.
The addition of a coding of passwords let’s you know when there is a breach like this, it’s time to change and recode all your other passworded sites.
Bonus: In terms of data breach liability insurance (huge growth area in the insurance field in general), if you employ site-name specific passwords, the fiduciary responsibility is readily established.
90-minutes to the open, futures were down 117…BTCs $3,966’ish. not unexpected given the craps tables will be closed tomorrow.
OK, off to breakfast and then to work on Peoplenomics charts for tomorrow’s report….