Today We Enter the Funhouse

by

A bit of “color” to set the mood for the balance of the week.  We have – as the day progresses – entered a Global Funhouse.  Of course, the local “opening time” depends on your Time Zone.  Like in Japan, the Bank of Japan rate confab (funding trillions in Japan-Yen Carry-Trades), is already meeting.  (Cultural point: Do they “gavel-in?” Or use a Ginzu knife, or something?)  Regardless, I know a very Bullish investment outfit in Dallas that lives for the BoJ 1.8 percent carry-trade indicator.  In some circles, grizzly senior financial enablers have figured out that the BoJ rate is globally as important as the U.S. Fed rate.  When the BoJ and Fed are aligned (along with the EU central bank) then the rates will define the speed of rise (or fall) of markets.

That “Funhouse” opens this morning as well.  After lunch tomorrow, our FedGovs and Chair will wrap up, announce a rate, and toddle off into the sunset until the September meeting.  (Some readers mistakenly think I only work a couple of days a month, too. But I assure you those estimates are high.)

Culturally, the Funhouse concept is not universal.  A largely American invention (more useful that man), it has birthed one $82 billion dollar empire (Disney).  As we Wiki the term:

“A funhouse or fun house is an amusement facility found in amusement parks and funfair midways, equipped with various devices designed to surprise, challenge, or amuse visitors. Unlike thrill rides or dark rides, fun houses are participatory attractions where visitors enter and move around at their own pace.[1] Incorporating aspects of a obstacle course, they seek to distort conventional perceptions and startle people with unpredictable physical circumstances.”

Traveling amusement shows (called Carnivals) would often draw on aspects of circuses, too. With some (back in the day) having an “animals, lite” display (a few gorillas, say) and even a midway.  Such as the one where (was it Zolta of Mr. Dark?) in “Something Wicked this way comes“) was placed.

The Fed and the BoJ are only two of the funhouses du jour.  At 10 AM (Eastern) the Labor Department releases the JOLTS report.  This assessment of the Job Openings, Layoffs, Terminations, and Separations is complicated but if you follow it for a few months, it can often set expectations about the Federal Employment Situation (EmpSit) Friday.

Which opens the jobs funhouse with the ADP report tomorrow (ahead of the Fed decision after the lunch).

The European ECB dropped from 4.5 percent to 4.25 percent in June.  At their July meeting they held 4.25. There’s a good video BOJ decision on rates will be a ‘very close call,’ strategist says (youtube.com) with one of the Nomura folks. See, if the BoJ raises a tiny bit it will potentially cap the markets around current (global) level.

If you’re gambling on the Fed, the odds at the CME Fed Watch tool show things are not likely to change this month, 95 percent change of no change, but September? Well, that’s a long way off. The ECB rate call will be September 12 (the megalomaniacs of Europe are pushy and want to go first) while the Fed here will issue a (most think small drop) around September 18th, but don’t forget they can always do a rate change between formal sessions should the world be falling apart in earnest.

Markets Here?

Early Futures look good:

Just remember this is all subject to change when the Case Shiller housing report comes out, so check here about quarter past the hour (e.g. 14-minutes to the open of markets) and we should have gotten the press notice on housing.

The Political Blender

We had a great conversation out here at the ranch this weekend with one of Elaine’s visiting sons.  He was telling us about teaching a key fact of “internet life” to the granddaughter.  “The Internet is forever.”

Latest high profiler to learn this is J.D. Vance.  And if he’s not careful, we think Trump might swap him out.  Because? JD Vance is faltering in the Midwest, a big problem for the GOP.  Some have speculated that Ben Carson could be brought back – and I for one would applaud that.  Highly capable “smartest guy in the room” with a minimalist web footprint.  Less to take out of context.

Meanwhile, besides the open borders, non-citizen voting idiocy, lots of not Americans have some skin in this fall: Intel officials warn enemies are eyeing election infrastructure, voter manipulation. With  few more details (like fate of the NATO war with Russia) to be discovered studying Russia, Iran, China Seek to Shape US Election, Officials Say.

War (and race) isn’t the only polarization axes to keep watch over. Gender is going large in this one, too: America’s New Political War Pits Young Men Against Young Women – WSJ.

For now, looks like Witmer is out as Kamala Harris vice president race narrows with Cooper, Whitmer out | Reuters

Whistling’s in the Graveyard

People “talking their book” and “voicing optimism” rather than crying is a good news filter to take out for a spin, now and then.

Our first “whistler” is the SecDef:  Hezbollah-Israel conflict not inevitable, says US defence secretary.

Then we will see how the BS and excuses run as Secret Service, FBI officials to testify about Trump assassination attempt.

So far, no sign of a J6 echo in the wake of the Maduro re-election in Venezuela this past weekend. But give it time, because Venezuelan opposition says it has proof its candidate defeated Maduro in Sunday’s election. Has a familiar ring to it.

Around the Ranch: What a Great Summer!

It just dawned on me: We are having an amazing summer, weather-wise.  We have yet to bust the 100-degree mark although we have had some pretty sticky Feels Like days in the 108F range.  But really a great one, so far.

If this is “climate change” remember back at the peak of the previous solar cycle, we were getting a week or two of back-to-back 100 (and higher) temps.  this year is just a treat, so far.  Sure, mid-90s today and for another week, but then there’s a chance of an August “cold snap” (when the temps may not bust 90) which would be de-freaking-lightful.

If this is “climate change” bring it on.

We wouldn’t be so anxious, though, if we were in the forest fire zones out West.  We also mentioned Colorado could “light up” in fires come August.  And judging by the maps, this could be a brutal late summer into fall by the look of this NOAA projection:

Still, not a bad year in the breadbasket and South.  We continue to keep our fingers crossed.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

38 thoughts on “Today We Enter the Funhouse”

  1. There are only 2 roads to victory for Trump RFK Jr, or Gabbard – those are the 2 that cannibalize Dem votes. Vance is CIA …….. he is a deterrent to election victory ……jmfo

    • You’re right! I can’t speak for Vance being CIA or anything else, but I do know that his attitude and extremism on the abortion “issue” is killing the republicans. Every democrat woman I’ve spoken to considers the abortion issue to be the only issue that matters, with “orange man bad” being quite secondary. This includes older women who have no chance of getting pregnant. We need to stop talking about abortion politically, and certainly until the silly season is over. If a woman(or a man) doesn’t want to get an abortion, nobody is forcing them to. Just stop giving those people ammunition – their emotional game is always much better than republicans who rely on logic. While I believe that emotions have no place in politics, the reality is that it’s all about emotion. It’s just a high school popularity contest.

      • “abortion”

        Trump had a clear message back in April –

        ““My view is now that we have abortion where everyone wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation, or perhaps both. And whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state,” Trump said in a video posted to his Truth Social account. ”

        Vance is muddling the message. He even contrived scenarios and called for a ‘federal response’.

        ‘If the message is unclear, voters won’t go near.’

        • Abortion… its a popular dead horse campaign issue dragged around the campaign platforms since before I started to shave..
          this time around they are using the brands corruption..didn’t stop them from taking off for the summer did it.No ones in jail . even with the mountain of evidence.. its the new campaign platform popular issue..it to will be tabled and re brought up next election year..

      • When you talk about Abortion … some people wish to push THEIR PERSONAL religious beliefs on people of other religions, or no religion.

        In every state where there has been a statewide vote of voters Abortion has been approved, though for some with restrictions (ie: NOT after 16 weeks for example). The general public, when allowed to vote on the issue are showing what THEY believe.

        Remember when 95% CATHOLIC Ireland had a nationwide vote on Abortion they voted 66.5% to 33.5% to allow it. Why would the Catholic Church think that the general public in the US would feel much different? (and what about Italy?, the Church’s home country?)

        In my state when the vote was being put on the ballot the religious zealots did everything they could to PREVENT the citizenry from voting on it. Let the people decide? NO!! They wanted nothing of the sort to happen.

        If the election becomes about Abortion … well the Republicans WILL LOSE. The majority of the country, including a very large majority of women, believe in the right of THE WOMAN to decide. (probably at about the same rate as the Irish vote)

    • You’re right about JD, and though Trump looks like the same as he did in 2016, he’s a whole different package now.

      They say he’s changed since the assassination attempt but, I could see a difference before that. Think his original views have been tainted or compromised over the past several years.

      • Stop talking about killing babies. That sounds like a moral path to follow. Talk about what? Taxes? Freedom? Will any of that get the woman looking to uncle Sam as their husband father get them to vote for a republican? Why do we want power if not to protect our rights, even the rights of those not born yet? We should emulate the dems and stand for nothing but gaining power.

      • Ever been shot at, in Earnest, if not in Intimacy?

        It re-focuses priorities wonderfully, and with some permanance.

        Few things are quite as urgent.

      • I believe he’s changed..ten years of nonstop attacks..then an attempt on his life..
        the democratic party I have been so proud of for so many years has exposed itself as the party of hate.
        not one member of the terrorist activities done by BLM or Antifa have been in jail..the violence the damage the pillaging and still people push them to do more..
        while parents looking out for their child’s safety that voiced their concerns at parent teacher association meetings have been victimized and humiliated publicly.. even went to jail and put on threat lists..
        I am so disappointed and ashamed of the actions of those I once held in high esteem..

  2. when ‘Business Insider’ like a stock car, [left turns only] is putting out propaganda against DJ-JD ticket, you should know JD is the right choice, as they are afraid of his coming over to Trump’s and America’s side
    as the wholly ‘controlled’ BI is weird.

    @c is right about an ‘echo chamber’ as they have gone
    ‘plainly weird’,,, you have to hit the volume button, in this video a couple of mins of ‘weird’ from the newscasters echo chamber
    https://x.com/OzraeliAvi/status/1818230607559930184

    Yes, Carson is great and will be in the Trump cabinet,,, but Trump chose JD and don’t forget,,,
    17 yes 17 (Q) days ago [July 13] they showed you how afraid of Trump they are
    THEY TRIED TO KILL HIM, BUT DIVINE INTERVENTION ONLY LET THEM NICK HIM,,, AS EVIDENCE
    The demons already have tried to down play their murderous attempts as ”’it was only a glass shard”’
    imagine if they had completely missed him,,, how they would have really down played it..

    you don’t like JD ? ,, remember a Bible story about Saul? who changed and we have the Apostle Paul,
    it is just an analogy, I am not giving sainthood to anyone.

    $$$
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buffett-disposes-71-million-bofa-shares-berkshires-cash-stockpiles-rise

  4. In Alabama we had a week or so of over 100 weather but it was in June if I recall correctly not July, when we expect it. We have also had weekly, weekend rain, so some neighbors are having trouble synching mowing with weather.
    Now that I am 70+ I often note to the global warming worshipers that heat is a lot more survivable than cold under normal conditions. If a really elderly person wanders off in a summer evening, they usually find him/her slightly dehydrated on a park bench somewhere.
    If s/he wanders off into even a fall or winter night, they find them on that park bench dead.
    I can get cooler in the summer, but its hard to get warmer without an external heat source.

  5. We have had a great summer as well. We’ve been having July “cold snaps” for years, usually lasting a few days with a little rain thrown in. This July has been MOSTLY a cold snap, and at 9.6″ of rain (6.2″ from Beryl), it’s our wettest month of the year to date. I’ve only had to water the garden a couple of times, and I’m thrilled about that.

  7. Dude G,

    Were you not JOLTed by the pure essence of bullscheisse emanating out of the BLS. For those that dont know BLS stands for Bullshit Level Serious.
    Latest report (disASSter) is based on 30 % response rate from Industry..only 30% of Firms respond to survey in the first F-ing place. Sample is size is Bullscheisse!
    Then, then my good man they ESTIMATE Inputs from the rest of the 70 % who cant be bothered with the Bullscheisse.

    Of course NONE of IT matters what so ever,as there is NO ONE driving this bus we call the USA, NO BODY.

    Perhaps if the infernal shit hiding in the dark(House-DC) were to smile, peeps might C him, but I digress.
    Cardinal Viagno has just come out and told YOUSE ALL – obummers “wife” is a muscled up Dude wearing a wig, and that rump wrangling president in france is married to a Tranny.

    What has the BCN been telling youse all this time ?

    It is ALL Fake, everything, including the “religion”(der Schwarmgeist “machine”) the cardinal is trying to defend..
    Defending The big Lie that is brought to Light with Ancient Greek.

    No worries – that peculiarly strange man at wef – really does despise US ALL. Ever wonder why that is..?

    Oh well cover up, get Ure new burd flu VAXX, and be very afraid some one gonna drop a House or a nuke on Ure ass.

    Forget everything you know regards Peace, Love and Happiness – They have taken it all, AND We let them.
    “You will own nothing, and be happy about it” -wef ? who the fuck is squab, that miserable, strange and vile bald dude in glasses, all looking like a bald emperor palpatine?

    FU klaus – in the LiverKidney CHannel!

    ?Wanna Ticket ? -https://youtu.be/0QpjR6-Uuks?si=jndjYaPClNbAIjrU

    • Great song, very moving!

      Group efforts at peace may be noble, though naive. Until each individual has some level of inner peace, they’re really not qualified to appoint anyone to drive that train! Each of us needs to seek our own inner peace and understanding, and own all of our personal power while disowning that of others.

      Never vote early. You may well change your mind.

  8. It has been a relatively mild summer, but we are supposed to settle into 100 degree days for the foreseeable future. Heat indexes are running over 105 degF. From a heat stroke perspective, 99 F at a heat index of 107 doesn’t buy you anything over 101 F at 105 F heat index. The afternoon breeze has been pretty good at my normal exercise time, so I have been able to get out this week despite the increasing heat.
    I use the stomach index sensor; if my gut starts tightening up, then that is usually an indication that I am overheating. Onset can be really quick this time of year. Treatment – slow down, cut it short, go home, cool off and call it a day. I am fairly acclimatized, and I am not a glutton for self-abuse, so it doesn’t happen often.

    • Take water and drink water while walking.
      You should drink enough that you need to urinate every 30 minutes. I know, I don’t drink that much either, I wouldn’t get anything done. But that is the standard when either working out or working outdoors. When in the woods I try to drink enough that I use the P-bottle every hour. (Of course that is so Bambi doesn’t smell me, most of the year The woods are there for the using.)

  9. Lucky you. It’s been hotter than normal in Pittsburgh after a winter with not much snow.

    If I wanted this kind of weather, I’d have stayed in Florida. Ugh. I don’t like heat.

  10. When I read about the “CME Fed Watch Tool” my first reaction was: “What does a ‘Coronal Mass Ejection’ have to do with the Fed? I’ve been looking at too many ham radio propagation reports and Sunspot analysis’s lately… obviously.

  11. the intel community believes that russia is working to help trump and iran to help the dems. betcha a lot of urbsurv readers are taken in by the pro russian agitprop

    • you seem to ignore the fact , that 51 intel agents told US that the Hunter laptop was Russian dis info,,, as it was all over the news channels and front pages of printed news

      so ya, you were taken in by the lying news media and the lying agencies

      as the agencies had a window overlooking the accused Trump sniper Crooks AND LET HIM TAKE HIS POSITION under their watchful eyes

      • And then there was the lying FBi – I got the Gab press release and no, crooks wasn’t they pro-Trumpp guy the FBI claims – quite the opposite by the (Gab) records

    • The Intel Community also said they believed (actually they made up) that Trump was negotiating with Russia prior to the 2016 election, which is why they LIED LIED LIED so as to get secret court orders so as to wiretap everything in his personal life and in his campaign … umm, I wonder WHO was reading all the campaign planning that Trump’s team was doing? Sounds a lot like what Nixon had to leave office for.

      The Intel Community to a man also claimed that the Hunter Laptop was a Russian Plant, even though the FBI had already determined that it was real. AGAIN … the Intel Community LIED LIED LIED.

      “Truth” is not a name YOU wear well if you are claiming that the US Intel Community is in any way shape or form “honest”. They are proven liars, apparently engaging in it with abandon every time Trump appears anywhere near them.

        • This is insulting, long-delayed armchair quarterbacking and loser-speak.
          Trump likely had conversations with Russia, but there was no Russia gate and you just can’t give it up, can you>?

          I’d appreciate it if you could spare my readers from bullship 5-year old out o date opinions that don’t matter.

          Hand is on the yellow flag

      • I guess you feel that the US should have ignored the UK, France, Germany, Estonia, Poland, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the Netherlands and France all flashing red that team trump was colluding with russia.
        “GCHQ first became aware in late 2015 of suspicious “interactions” between figures connected to Trump and known or suspected Russian agents, a source close to UK intelligence said. This intelligence was passed to the US as part of a routine exchange of information, they added.

        Over the next six months, until summer 2016, a number of western agencies shared further information on contacts between Trump’s inner circle and Russians, sources said.

        The European countries that passed on electronic intelligence – known as sigint – included Germany, Estonia and Poland. Australia, a member of the “Five Eyes” spying alliance that also includes the US, UK, Canada and New Zealand, also relayed material, one source said.

        Another source suggested the Dutch and the French spy agency, the General Directorate for External Security or DGSE, were contributors.”
        https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/13/british-spies-first-to-spot-trump-team-links-russia

        • Please don’t quote unproven and misreported seven-year-old stories.
          The War Party colluders are at it again with a Trump Egypt payoff story, too.
          Can’t your crooks ever learn a new move?
          See where illegals are lining up for licenses in Florida so they can (help steal) the vote this time?

        • you woundnt know truth if it smacked you in Ure arrogantly ugly face. dont forget the Russian hookers he paid rubles to so they would golden shower him..Ure favorite pass time no?

          “Oh truths’ golden Showers” sung 2 O them golden slippers..-4/4 time -https://youtu.be/SHewaE_8vsY?si=lL41uHjDUf-9NYbu

  12. I’m gonna try for 3.806 tomorrow (Wed) morning

    -> IF <–

    #1 – the thunderstorm static isn't too strong,and,

    #2 – I get on in time. (6 – 8 am EDST)

    I figger 50-50, if the seas are following, and the
    creek don't rise.

    73
    KW1B

  13. Folks,

    President Zelenskyy’s Telegram channel offered updates on his visit today to Volyn Oblast in the far northwest adjacent to Poland and Belarus. He was pictured meeting business leaders and toured a textile factory to promote “Made in Ukraine”.

    It was such a contrast to yesterday’s trip towards the warzone in “Kharkiv direction” near the contested Vovchenko border district. The region’s oil exploration and development licence appears to be held by a Kiev satellite of a London registered company led by a French ceo. The president posted video clips of himself awarding medals to special forces members of the Prince Sviatoslav the Brave regiment. This was a 10th century pagan Kievan Rus ruler that fell to occupiers of Crimea who allegedly made a chalice out of his skull. The regimental base is the city of Kropyvnytsky named by Ukraine’s parliament in Kyiv after a late 19th century Ukrainian playwright who retired to Odesa. He found fame with “You Do Know When Disaster Will Awake”.

    According to Wikipedia, a 2016 referendum of city residents turned down by Kyiv showed 76% wanted the city name returned to be Yelisavetgrad (Elizabethgrad). This was the name given by the 18th century Age of Enlightenment Russian Empress Elizabeth in homage to her patroness, St. Elizabeth mother of John the Baptist.

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