The Synthetic Growth Bubble

Something that both of the (idiotic) political parties seem to be missing is the whole major problem summed up as “Where does growth come from?

Around here, though more on the Peoplenomics side of things, the answers are lined up and we go through them from time-to-time.

One way to jump-start an economy is to bring in more people. In the USA, democrats seem a bit wiser to this as they are in favor of open (to non-existent) borders, but the more radical amongst ’em also understand that recent imports (without b/ground study) are likely to be even more radical than, oh, Bernie for example.

Another growth avenue is that exemplified by the U.S. military (as choreographed by the neocons) as “Kill people and break things.”   War is a fine “growth engine,” indeed.

Super consumer-saturation is (as we have argued) already here.  So the economic impact of the end of free television and the arrival of UHD monitors hasn’t been much.  Mostly, since conventional TV is in-process of biting the dust (streaming is better/faster etc.) and declining market consolidations are in play.

The “Hate Trump” industry has experienced a pretty good run, although with the “nothing burger” out from Mueller, hard to keep people whipped up about that.

Climate works, to some degree (poor pun, sorry) but the data doesn’t support the histrionics.  Besides, when India-Pakistan light up this summer as part of the 72-year war cycle coming around, we will, as noted in a recent Peoplenomics report, the growing season shortened by a month (or longer) and global warming will be replaced by NukWinterLite for several decades.  That will kill up to 2-billion people (famine) and make the survivors insane with hunger…But again, the upside is that tills the soil for future growth, even if you and I won’t be around to see it.

War, of all these choices, is the easiest to monetize.  You can see it behind headlines like “Swedish Awacs in focus again after PAF used it against India.”  All of which leads us back to the increasing odds of an Indo-Pak war this summer.

Weather will play a big role in this one.  As the headlines about the first major heatwave of the year coming to Pakistan show up, we can’t help but think Pakistanis will be encouraged to vacation en masse this summer, in their mountain country.  Tough to kill off major populations sequestered in mountains.

Not to be excessively glum about future prospects, but I’ve been spending a lot of time lately playing “Pin the Label on the Crash.

That was easily done in 2008 – we all saw the real estate bubble.  Same with the Internet bubble 9-years earlier.  But what is the bubble we are in now?  What is the name for a planet gone mad?

One of my picks is the “Social Media Bubble.”  We have known since 2000 (see Young, O’Mara, and Buchanon) that the web makes people a bit daft.  But, no one talks about it, because we’re all so anxious not to mention the “emperor’s new clothes.”

Still, we know that hacker teams of all political persuasions use social media as prime battlespace.  We know cyber crime is almost doubling every year.  And we know the European Union is trying to impose its views on Internet management worldwide.

By the way, did you notice where “Facebook extends ban on hate speech to ‘white nationalists’?”  It will be amusing, indeed, to see if such digital self-righteousness is applied to black nationalist groups, as well.   Equality, right?

(It won’t be, because there’s a long-term white-hating liberal agenda in play…guilt-peddling.  America, 85% white when I was born is now down in the 63% range…and all without a vote.  Amazing, is it not?)

Even the DailyBeast seems to be echoing some of our digitlution and Digital Mob Rule concerns (OK, digilantism too, if you insist) as they propose  that  the “U.S. Must Put a Ban on Google Helping China Develop a Global Digital Dictatorship...”

Thing is, all of these changes are due to a widely under-appreciated field of study called “Behavioral Economics.”  People will go where there’s the least resistance.  And they will spend (and act) in the ways that give them the highest Maslow payoffs.

One of the most useful of all idea in psychology that explains much about politics, economics, and human behavior in general, is his simple hierarchy of needs.

With a little reflection, you can see how it works in, oh, religion for example.  Make people very afraid of dying and offer them a “comfort pill” and they will swallow and follow.  Or, in politics, propose that an opponent will raise taxes (take your money) and they will vote for anything but that candidate.

It’s much more complicated, but not beyond modeling and once modeled, it’s easy to A.I. it.  Just so long as you remember that the U.S.A. is a “global persona ” just as “China” and “Japan” are personas.  Yes, that’s right, countries operate to the same hierarchy of needs… taxes, territories, and a power-elite.  Trust you’re following the ramble here?

Stories like Smollett getting off sicken me…but in a more scientific view, it just confirms what we already knew.  Some people are part of the power structure (Smollett) and others (you and me) aren’t.  We don’t have access to the “Dial-a-Favor” line.  It’s our experience that innocent people don’t forfeit $10-large and do community service days, but we’ve spent less than 2-hours in 70-years in Chicago and that was eating pizza at the airport.

Tough stuff to swallow in a “nominally equal country” that there are “connected” people and friends of a Ruling Class but the news leaks that its all quite undeniable.  America isn’t even near being an equal (egalitarian) society.  Woe to those who mention that fact, lest they be branded racists, homophobes, and whatever else the current slur du jour among the me-me’s happens to be on socialist media.

So deal with it.

Making Up Money Dept.

No, bitcoin is not money…at least to us.  We stupidly hold that
“money” must persist when the lights go out.  Notwithstanding, bitcoin is still around $4,000 proving P.T. Barnum’s “sucker born every minute” estimate was a low-end guess.  (We acknowledge “Paper Collar Joe” Bessimer may have originated the quote…jeez don’t want the heirs getting after us…)

Speaking Making Up Money

We flipped over to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (which is more precise than our work here) to see how they have been jiggering things:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “initial” estimate issued last month. In the initial estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. With this estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment were revised down; imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were also revised down”

Need to Knows

The FCC has fined robocallers $208 million. It’s collected $6,790. We say Jail ‘Em.

President Trump calls on Adam Schiff to resign, accuses him of ‘knowingly and unlawfully lying and leaking’.  He could have just call Schiff a democrat…

New York mobster, who served jail time age 100 because he didn’t rat: ‘Jesus suffered. He didn’t squeal on nobody’.

Gay Sex Is About to Become Punishable With Death by Stoning in Brunei.

The Winning $768 Million Powerball Ticket Was Sold in Wisconsin.

A Jury Has Awarded $80 Million in Damages in a Case Tying Roundup Weed Killer to Cancer.

OK, moron the morrow..when we will see what else we can round up…Dow futures down 17 as we click…

23 thoughts on “The Synthetic Growth Bubble”

  1. Health Note Google 4 minute workout and go to either Dr Bush or Dr Mercolas site. I can personally guarantee this. Read the benefits on Dr Mercolas site.

  2. Maybe a better way. A newly rebuilt McDonalds in our area has someone deliver the order to your table. Sure looks like might be building business.

  3. George,

    I wonder if you noticed this…The weaponization of space now includes one more country in addition to the US, Russia and China…By the way, those countries comprise of nearly half of the world’s population. Downing satellites fits your “need to prep now” models. If India has successfully has this technology, could Pakistan, the 5th largest country in the world be far behind? A rogue country like Pakistan could be the type that shoots down all GPS capable satellites, throwing world commerce and entire countries defense systems into complete disarray.

    DELHI — Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India announced Wednesday that India had shot down one of its own low-orbit satellites with a missile in a test, hailing it as a major moment of national pride.

    If confirmed, a successful missile test would put India in a small club of countries, including the United States, Russia and China, that have proved their ability to destroy targets in space. When China first successfully tested such a missile, in 2007, it brought global concern over the growing weaponization of space.

    • I doubt Pakistan’s ability to replicate India’s achievement. It’s not their expertise, though I’m sure they’d love to do so. I’d be more concerned about Iran or Israel having this capability, since they do have the tech and the personnel.

      I’m sure the major militaries of the world are concerned about relying on GPS and have inertial and perhaps other guidance backup. There are also many more GPS satellites than needed for a fix, so losing one or two is less of a concern. Removing all of them would require more capability than any country yet admits to.

      As an individual, I don’t use GPS at all. I’ve navigated across the country by air(and ground) using just a map and compass, though nav radios are always appreciated. I never really trusted GPS as anything more than a convenience.

  4. One other way to energize the economy and it too has hit the bubble…..Hate Trump syndrome! Look at all the money and ratings the lying media (the Democrats media arm) has generated telling everyone that President Trump was a Russian collaborator! It has been a complete windfall for the media. It pushed Rachel Madcow’s ratings over the top because of her lying, screeching, and determination to take down a President.

    Now what do we have? a media bubble. The shat has hit the fan. When you have Mueller stack the deck with dem lawyers who are at best seedy in the way they conduct themselves, and we get a “nothing burger”? Well there is no doubt about it, the left put all their eggs into this investigation and they got nothing. It will be interesting to see if the bubble sees the demise of Zucker and CNN, Madcow and the other acolytes at MSNBC and if pencil neck Schiff gets the shaft, and has to resign his position in the house.

    Will the Trump 2020 campaign save the day for the Media. Most likely. Trump is the best thing that has ever happened to MSNBC, CNN and the other hate Trump media!! And the worst thing!!

    • It goes both ways…Fox is just as guilty with it’s over the top love affair with our brainless leader.

      And why do you even listen and embrace the attacks on Schiff? All he is saying is that talking about the Mueller Report when we’ve only seen the Barr letter is like reviewing a movie when you’ve only seen the trailer. That makes anton of sense…something our President doesn’t have a lot of.

      There is still a lot to learn…I am a Republican, but I will believe a bigger portion of what Maddow has to say over anything that comes out of the mouths of suck up Hannity or Rush “Opiod” Limbaugh.

      You people need to “listen” first before spewing opinions. Once you listen, you learn the truth…Believe me…the truth isn’t on Fox. The truth lies in the myriad of podcasts, CNBC, Bloomberg and shows that deal with real news and economic metrics.

    • Sure kept your attention didn’t it? which was what it was designed to do,while they pretended to hate the orange clown you didn’t hear anything about another two trillion added to the debt,another base being opened over across, another war trying to be hatched,the low to no growth in the economy, where even Wal-Mart is closing stores to go along with all the rest of the stores being closed another $500 million to try and drive the Russians out and regime change so they can end up like the Ukraine, so American oil firms can get their greedy hands on all that oil.Now I’m sure it wasen’t the lol so called left that put Bolton along with the whale in his inner circle, or any of the imperialist called neocons in other position’s of the government.No growing up during the cold war and all its propaganda I learned never ever believe anything that the government nor its organs the media and press put out for they occupy the same bed.!!!

  5. In addition, the Dems probably have noticed that attractive women get press coverage. Look for more visable appealing Dem women to run for Congress. A sad state of affairs. Men are attracted to them; & women want to be associated with them.

    • LOL LOL LOL… ECS..
      when I was in the military.. they actually had a get together to tell the recruits .. Never go after the best looking woman in the bar.. women usually tag team.. one may be looking.. but they will surround themselves with ladies not looking to filter out the creeps.. and if you want to sleep with someones daughter.. flirt with the mom.. get her ok and all is well… LOL LOL LOL LOL they ranked service stations by the ratio of men to women.. LOL…. what they failed to tell everyone is the ratio of gay and lesbian to straight…. LOL LOL LOL

      • Ha ha ha ha! I always go for the best looking in the bar. After a survey of the scene, I walk up, make direct eye contact looking above my glasses with a serious but confident look on my face. Then i stand right next to her ans turn my back to her, and start playing with my phone and ignoring her. 9 times out of 10 she will start up a conversation after about 5 min. Lmao!

  6. Sorry George,

    I’ll try this again!

    It sure seems like someone is trying very hard to make the GA guide stones stand up. Given all the negative possibilities for us and this world we owe it to our posterity (family & extended family ( neighbors, church, co-workers, etc. )) to be prepared. Thanks for you help in these preparations.

    If you don’t mind. I’d like to offer some contributions for tbose of us that are on medications doled out 30 days at a time:

    1. The Herbal Drugstore, Linda White which provides AMA protocol / treatments side by side with herbal alternatives to the big pharma products. Great for those looking for a “Plan B”.

    2. Edible Wild Plants of North America, Petersen that provides info on plants that may be available before everyone gets their garden going. “Plan C” you grow your own.

    Hope this helps.

    Bob Cooper

    PS: No! This is not medical advice! LOL

    • Bob… I totally agree..the Georgia guidestones …I personally would love to see them one day.
      Considering the amount of time and money that someone actually spent on them tells me there was a great many people or organizations involved with the guidelines that are written on them.
      I think they were erected as just an opinion not a plan. Something to get people thinking. Maybe even to convince mankind to rethink our carpenter ant ways and put something back instead of constantly taking.
      The concerns on EMP’s..
      I can’t even tell you how many studies I’ve read concerning those events.
      our country went whole hog on construction for safe havens for the chosen ones years ago. Many studies even construction of internment camps..
      I would say I am thinking there’s quite a few people all with concerns of all of it becoming a reality.
      What surprises me is even after that and other similar reports all with the same end game results.. Nothing has been done to secure our country. Congress is even dead set against securing our borders much less attending to the needs of the crumbling infrastructure or bringing back needed industry.
      Instead seize conquer, destroy and rebuild other countries seems to be goals that are more important.
      All because there are some that has an insatiable itch for more.
      Its that itch and the idiots ( hey that could be a title to a new book..the itch and idiots.. Catchy huh )not fixing our severely crumbling infrastructure. They’d rather have control than security.
      There’s very little any of us can do. Except vote. The rest is pre planned for us. We should be voting everyone out. We won’t and if we aren’t willing to vote them out then we deserve everything they give us.

      • Come on,LOOB, take it one step further. Our votes don’t count. They hack the results easily. Voting doesn’t matter, especially so since illegals are now confirmed allowed to vote. Just keep prepping, that’s all one can do.

      • unfortunately Prepper.. I think you are right.. and even if they did.. ( like DJT getting in office.. ) they will find any reason they can to discredit and still not do anything..
        Keep on Prepping..

    • I was a little surprised to find that Fish Mox Fish Flex and other antibiotics were being sold at my local Tractor Supply store. I wouldn’t take animal antibiotics without a considerable amount of personal research but that animal antibiotic is one that a lot of people have been using to avoid doctor bills for simple infections and such for quite some time. Feed stores have quite a variety of medications that can be purchased without a doctor’s Rx but, again, due diligence in off label (human) consumption is required. Desperate times can require desperate measures, though.

  7. “One way to jump-start an economy is to bring in more people. In the USA, ”

    Hmm..the downside.. They take up jobs, pay no taxes and get access to all the support programs that were meant to help down and out American citizens..

    Nuke winter.. I’m not to worried about that. Turning the earth to a glass parking lot would not allow the greedy bunch from gathering more crap to control.. That would be a lot like putting someone with an IQ of ten in a round room and saying ..quick run to the nearest would drive them up a wall.
    What I do worry about is an emo. What would it take..three to shut the USA down and send us back technologically back ten thousand years.. Kill off 98% of the population.. No Nuclear winter .. Bu. I don’t think money would be necessary. Most of its digital now.. A millionaire walking into a bank and withdrawing his funds and demanding cash would shut the bank down.. That’s why they have the 90 day clause.. Wipe out the grid and communication its done.
    Greece.. Everything looked bleak.. Then they realized..why a coin or sheet of paper.. I still grow grapes or make olive oil.. Who needs the paper.. Its a mental block that would have to be overcome.. Just like the Wiemer depression.. People were trading baskets of gold and silver for food. Paper was cheaper than cord wood..

    Climate change ..give it up its going to happen and we can’t stop it. Of course people should study the results if the biosphere experiment and co2.. Then watch the people of the major cities.
    You will see a comparison of actions and communication breakdowns already..
    But hey this is just my opinion and I’m no body special. No PhD or paper or scientist just an codger in the middle of nowhere ranting and raving

    • Looking Out…
      Immigrants pay taxes like foreign tourists pay taxes…through the things they buy. There is sales tax..but, eventually, when they decide this is the life for them, they take the necessary steps to assimilate and pay income taxes like the rest of us. Not all do, but the ones I know here in California certainly do…

      But it’s the intangible contributions they make that isn’t talked about..Immigrants contribute to our economy in a huge way. We are the number one agriculture state in the nation and that $100 billion sector of our state economy does not run without them. Throw in the myriad of cottage/restaurant/landscaping/cleaning industries that they run and the money pouring into our state is why we sometimes are forced to look the other way.

      On Climate Change…I can’t buy into climate change…it’s a theory, not a short term thing humans can wrap their heads around. Pollution is the problem…Pollution has health implications and when you mess with people’s health…you affect their money and their livelihoods. That…we must fight. Air pollution causes respiratory issues, water and aquifer pollution can cause cancer, ocean pollution affects our food supply, land pollution increases pestilence which can cause fatal and long term diseases and so on. Market this issues and you solve most of what this Stupidly named and thought out Green New Deal is all about.

      • What I was talking about isn’t about them spending money.. but paying for the services they got..just think how much better off Cali would be if those millions of good spending people paid some taxes.. Now on your defense.. I have said the same thing.. do away with income tax and make it all one sales tax.. you guy or build something.. deduct necessities like food water health as tax exempt.. everything else taxed through sales taxes..

        During The Reagan recession Hours was tight.. I worked.. ( I say six jobs my wife says eight jobs.) to make enough to survive.. at my full time job.. cabinet orders were low so we would go in and work maybe an hour or two then sent home.. I would go from there to another position..
        anyway we had a refugee from another country.. nice guy three kids wife.. went through some stuff I wouldn’t ever want to experience.. (almost digressed there) he was guaranteed forty hours a week.. they bought him a new van gave him health care insurance,,( I didn’t.. I sold plasma to pay for the family medical needs)He received food a college education for his wife and himself daycare, Heating assistance etc.. anyway… at the end of the year.. Reagan administration was deducting taxes.. ( you pay the same tax they take a few bucks less every payday) I had to pay in…
        and I was literally working seventeen hours a day to make sure my kids had food on the table..( oh yeah I didn’t qualify for food stamps by the way.. or heating assistance or anything) he got his refund check…. he got back every penny he paid in for social security( while receiving benefits) he got back every penny that he paid in for Income tax. He got back every penny that the company paid in as well and received the EIC tax credit.. not counting his new car mine broke down… he showed me his return check.. he got back more than I made working six jobs.. and I had to pay in..
        I sure in the hell hoped he spend a few of those moldy dollars..with that free education.. the last time I heard he and his wife got a medical degree and was working in a hospital..
        I sure didn’t mind him coming to america.. or working here but he should pay the same dam taxes I and every other american laborer has to pay.. not given any free education.. hell he should have to pay for his college and take out long high interest loans that the kids down the street have to..
        Now we have millions coming to america.. he came the legal way these guys are saying screw american legality you pay for me you destroyed out homes and land so some idiot could get more turnips than he can ever eat.. now you pay for me and my family my schooling .. and I want your jobs to..
        to me that is one huge FUZCT YOU AMERICA if I ever seen one.. and we have a congress that is basically telling every american laborer.. hey Fuzct you workers.. have a heart dig deep in your pockets.. laws are not meant to be enforced these people have a right to work you don’t..

        Climate change.. that is a proven cycle .. and it is going to happen one way or another.. no one can change it.. it has been taking down civilizations and forcing species into extinction for all time..the species that can adapt survive

        I don’t have any problems with immigrants coming to america legally and working.. If they want to run a business here in the us.. then come in legally pay our taxes.. pay a non resident taxes and go by our laws.. and the good Samaritan programs are good but they are paid for out of the taxes of the working man to help those in desperate times to survive through a temporary ordeal.. they were never intended as a source of income or a right to those that are not citizens..

  8. Institutions are barely scraping at Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They’ve gone overboard on the first two levels, but most fail badly at the third. Only an ecstatic religion(or drugs) can even address this need, which is so commonly fulfilled in a close family or community. Esteem and self-actualization are actually counterproductive to those who seek control, though it’s a good business model for those who sell verbal snake oil.

  9. Everyone, read The Report From Iron Mountain.

    I see you all analyzing and dissecting the premise George puts forth as if you believe everything the media says (you want the confirmation).

    The situation is a farce, the book proves it. A giant pantomime. When I read the book I realized I spent my whole life taking the news seriously, as most of you do. Complete cognitive dissonance. Please educate yourselves, there is a vast gulf between what you take as “reality” as presented by the “media”, and what is actually happening.

    George is trying to say this, and you all are looking at his one hand. Just like you look at the wrong hand when some media people are picking your mental pocket with the other.

    • Ha ha. What are ya new? Ha ha ha. We are all pretty much aware its all bullsh!t. They just like to argue semantics because ita what they do. Im sure everyone here knows 9-11 was an inside job and that we have been at war for 19 fricking years in irag and Afghanistan and never not found one WMD, NOT ONE! Bin Laden was supposedly captured and killed almost 8 years ago andnwe are still there. Sacrificing our young men and women for the gods oil, poppy and $. I haven’t forgotten our troops. Dont think anyone elese has here either.

Comments are closed.