The Sunday Strategic: Nuke for Tat / PGS

In Saturday’s report, I laid out a possible economic “replay” based on a market period in previous years.  A beginning decline in the coming week would set the stage toward our projected market low in mid-summer, should events continue to harmonize with our past market period.  The projection is based on our Peoplenomics Trading Model’s Oscillator showing the same type of formation.

All of which doesn’t matter (unless you happen to have an IRA, 401k, or are simply trying to save a bit of money) since the Big Distractions are in play.

Which gets us to mentioning that there is some critical reading that should be considered for your reading list this week, or next.

I’d recommend beginning with the Federation of American Scientists website reprint of an April 2013 Congressional Research Service Report titled:

Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues

At the core of the PGS concept is that older-generation intercontinental (and medium range) missiles were primarily a “nuclear only” option. 

Unfortunately, this merely continued the previous MAD (mutually assured destruction) policy.

Under Prompt Global Strike (PGS):

Many analysts believe that the United States should use long-range ballistic missiles with conventional warheads for the PGS mission. These would not substitute for nuclear weapons in the U.S. war plan but would provide a “niche” capability, with a small number of weapons directed against select, critical targets. Some analysts, however, have raised concerns about the
possibility that U.S. adversaries might misinterpret the launch of a missile with conventional warheads and conclude that the missiles carry nuclear weapons. DOD is considering a number of systems that might provide the United States with long-range strike capabilities.

While the West/US/EU alliance may believe that PGS will be a policy option for surgical/conventional response, especially in a sub-regional conflict like Ukraine, the Russians quietly (insofar as most of the mainstream and repost/rip media missed it) announced in no uncertain terms that “Russia will use nukes in case of a strike- official.”

Quoting Russian vice prime minister Dmitry Rogozin, the key warning was framed this way:

““One can experiment as long as one wishes by deploying non-nuclear warheads on strategic missile carriers. But one should keep in mind that if there is an attack against us, we will certainly resort to using nuclear weapons in certain situations to defend our territory and state interests,

A report from a Russian group Friday, claiming to have downed a US drone over Crimea has been labeled as false.  Pick your sources carefully because there’s a huge persuasion battle underway between the West/EU/US and Russia.

The Obama administration has been setting the stage for a major showdown with Russia, no doubt to bolster the future of the EU which has proclaimed a territorial desire to expand its economic grasp “…from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”

There is more than a twinge of self-interest at play:  Much of the EU’s energy comes from Russia and one can see how “free trade” could be an important card to have in the deck as global economics and the One World Government rolls toward power.

And just to keep things clear, the Obama administration issued economic sanctions on March 6 in an Executive Order “BLOCKING PROPERTY OF CERTAIN PERSONS CONTRIBUTING TO THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE.”

Of course, initially, the intent is to prevent physical support, one could make the case that the EO sets out a case that might be interpreted as US domestic press controls, if a large news organization or even a blogger provides coverage  “…that undermine democratic processes and institutions in Ukraine; threaten its peace, security, stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity; and contribute to the misappropriation of its assets, constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States, and I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat.”

Obviously, the seizing of power by right-wing extremist groups, then reinstalling a legacy government which had “issues” of its own, is a clever way to move the EU into Russia’s backyard.

Perception is Reality

What we’re seeing now is a “rewriting of the public memory” in full-scale deployment.

We can see how early reports, such as this March 2 report that “The U.S. has installed a neo-Nazi government in Ukraine” has been counter-programmed by MSM coverage that now quotes “Kiev’s protesters: Ukraine uprising was no neo-Nazi power-grab.”  As long as we’re playing information warfare, let’s go ahead and toss in “Ukraine Jews refute Russia’s ‘neo-Nazi’ claims.”

Still, there are plenty of sites (like this one) where the Ukrainian Constitution and its recall provisions are discussed.  A mob take-down of the government is not addressed, and a cursory glance would suggest, isn’t legal.  But that hasn’t slowed the West/EU/US drive.  Ever wonder why?

The US/West/EU has been spoiling for a fight since it became clear that world opinion was not “swinging its way” in Syria.  Just today, we’re reading now “Syrian troops seize major rebel town near Lebanon.”

But what really screwed-up the Western “cause” in Syria was its recent announcement of plans to hold elections and the outcome of those may be decidedly Iran-friendly.

Since the Iranians are getting a large chunk of their nuclear technology from Russia, and, in turn, Syria is acting as the forward radar system looking toward Israel, which continues to hold a first-strike threat against Iranian installations, the US?West/EU has a large incentive to go “upstream” and neuter Russia’s military response by increasing pressure on (and taking control of) Sevastopol,. home port of the Black Sea Fleet.

This fleet is a fairly large one, although mostly configured for coastal and regional operations.  You can get a ship and mission listing here.

In an odd way, the NewWorldOrder has two problems that current events may be seen to be “working.”

One is that Vlad Putin is not likely to sacrifice Russian autonomy without a fight.  And the Russians are preemptively telling the US/West/EU that they will go nuclear in response to the (theoretical) PGS strategy.

The other move, going on more slowly in background, is for the NWO to get itself a tax base so that a globalist government can get some revenue sources under itself.  The de facto global economic system is emergent if one looks at monetary moves synchronized by the G-20 and cooperating central banks.

The nominal “cause” for a global tax is being laid out before us, but few people understand it, yet.

What was once “global warming” – but since the data supporting that fell apart as the Sun entered a period of solar output quiescence – has now been replaced with equally rabid claims of “climate change.”   Only four democratic senators showed the integrity to skip the me-too session / all-night hype-a-thon last week.

On this second front, and while we can still discuss this one without fears of an Executive gag Order, we’ll simply point out that “climate change” is nu-speak for global tax system.

Politicians don’t line up behind an issue without economic incentives, pure and simple.

Fortunately, climate change will truly be here this coming Friday.  That’s when Winter turns to Spring on the 21st.  Hardly cause for a global tax, but with enough media coverage, as Hitler’s propaganda minister, Joseph Goebbels, demonstrated:  Repeat a lie often enough and it will prevail.

About the only thing that changes in marketing is cost-per-thousand impressions (CP/M).  Dollars, Deutschmarks, or Rubles matters little.

While you go dust under the bed, for the Spring Scary Season, the smart money around here has circled April 23rd, or thereabout, for the full-on military moves to begin in eastern Europe. 

Between now and then, we look for noisy market conditions as the headlines will drive and few (besides us) will notice that the non-partisan markets of Asia are already telling us what should be terribly obvious: We’re going down, quite possibly.

The “constant growth model” of capitalism and interest-based prosperity is running its course… running out of “Ooomphf.”  That may force the Fed to back off plans to taper Quantitative Easting and it is likely why the present rate of increase in M1 (bash and equivalents) is screaming ahead at 18.3 percent (3 months rate annualized).

The economy is not being stimulated, at least so far.  Pernicious deflation lurks at every turn because the internet provides for digital migrant workers and that screws over countries with high purchasing power parity (PPP) incomes.

As past economic long waves have shown us, wars are a fine way to stimulate an economy.

After a final market break in the summer of 1921, following the end of the WW I, the stage was set for an amazing economic period (the Roaring Twenties) that, although it ended badly with the Great Depression, was nevertheless an amazing period of economic prosperity.

Similarly, after WW II and the Korean War, the US enjoyed an unequalled period of prosperity in the 1950’s.

A Wikipedia graphic (here) shows the relationship between the long wave and technological developments.

But the key harmonic to keep an eye on (and the one I’ll be talking about with George Noory on Coast to Coast AM Wednesday night this week) is that technological change comes first and it’s then followed by massive socioeconomic displacement.

In the case of the Great Depression, the collapse came as 7-million acres of farmland used for raising draft animals suddenly (over a decade) became obsolete as the internal combustion engine (ICE) evolved into traction motors (tractors) and automobiles. 

Farmers raising draft animals compensated for unrelenting mortgage notes by overplanting crops.  Prices fell.  The Great Depression was on.

If you haven’t noticed, the Internet is presently destroying pricing power.

It is eerily similar to the death of the draft animal business in the 1900’s.  The networked computer eats all.  Toss in robotics and an economy that hasn’t figured out how to redistribute wealth and you have a recipe for global war or planetary die-off.

It’s not like I’m going out on the nut-job limb in discussing this with you.

Go read: “Bill Gates:  People don’t realize how many jobs will soon be replaced by software bots.”

You’re welcome to doubt my view.  I’m sure the buggy-whip makers of 1900 would have held to the same opinion about them new-fangled automobiles and traction motors.

Depressions come 20-35 years after a major tech change.  Railroads, ICE’s and now networked computers.

History has a rhythm to it.  Much slower than the trance-beat of headline news.  Think of it as the difference between a heartbeat and breathing.  One is very fast and immediately apparent.  But the slower, gentler cycles of breathing are just as important and totally undeniable.

And, if you haven’t noticed since the purchasing power market peak of 2000, we’re in mid  “exhale.”

The Dow hit 11,723 in early Y2k. 

If you go to the Minneapolis Fed and put 11,723 into their “inflation calculator” and set 2014 as your target date, the inflation adjusted Dow level comes out to 16,053.68.

Since the Dow closed Friday at 16,065.67, I’d suggest that despite hype and easy money the US has made zero economic progress on a purchasing power basis in the past 14-years.

(With an error of 0.07%, (7-100ths of one percent) which is down in the noise floor of the data, sorry to report.)

So what’s the point?

You go read some Joseph Tainter or Jared Diamond now, for details of how the ancient Pueblo Peoples (Anasazi) began their diaspora.  But think back on what happened (as Tainter explains) when the marginal rate of return for additional work by society fell below zero.

Near as can be figured, they may have simply walked away.  As Tainter frames it, they blow off complexity when it stops working for them at a personal level.

And that brings us full circle.  To the need for an external enemy.    And, oh, climate change.

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The Sunday Strategic  is a periodic overview covering a few of the important highlights of recent reports.