The Money Comes from Someplace

by

Wherein we look at a nearly 800-point increase in the Dow and wonder “WTF?”  There was no driving news, the Fed will still meet and raise rates. The Davos crowd is still pressing for its Global Reset to scam World Government into being.  AND we still see gasoline prices rising this week.

While “down here on the farm” off-road diesel was $4.57 a gallon.  And we can walk to the oil pumps in the 600-acre reserve just across the street.

Of course, we knew something would soon “be up with energy” 9-months ago.  Because that’s when we started receiving unsolicited offers to buy a 15 acre parcel which is likely drillable.  We know from years past work that we have gas around 7,000 to 8,000 feet down and oil below that.

[We won’t go Beverly Hillbilly’s on you – we own surface rights only.  In Texas there’s a huge business in subsurface rights.]

But look, gas prices going UP should not drag the stock market up – at least on any rational planet.

So, after a few headlines, our ChartPack will ponder-as-we-go “Where’s the money coming from?”

Deerstalker hat and some Jamaican Blue at the ready?

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50 thoughts on “The Money Comes from Someplace”

  1. Oh G of little faith..

    .. in Ure own financial furry advisor – Zcat.
    Seeing as how you have many more years experience in dealing with Zcat and his market prognostications than I do, might explain why you would go Short on the same info coot went long on.

    Sniped over a 50% gain on thirty percent of SPY 380 call position after hours Friday. Sell Stop on books for Monday – no guarantee of more profits, just a safety valve – otherwise “ride Sally ride”.

    – sailing knots, mooring boats, monkey paws/cat paws/year of tiger/ fed paws..”all about the paws’

    Left Coast Progressives – baja hahah
    Right Coast Conservatives – halifax to marblehead race /+100yrs running..

    • Re: the long and short of it

      George,

      “Where’s the money coming from?” Reviewing pre-covidian era “Urban” 10/4/2019 on M2 velocity, one might think mum has returned to the roost from dark pools. The Sept. 29, 2022 St. Louis Fed 5 year M2V graph sure has the look of RCA in action? History books can record M2V bottomed out at 1.112 in 2020 Q2 under Mr. Trump’s watch. Are the wings still attached?

      (Warning: sarcasm alert ahead.)

      Thankfully under Mr. Biden’s tutelage M2V as of Q2 2022 reflects gradual positive improvement. Recall the President’s visit last week for ice cream at a Portland, Or. Baskin Robin’s. He put his sunglasses on and off, on and off, while indoors because obviously the sun is shining bright in ‘Dem world. Let’s forget the Fed for a moment and all their scary Halloween treats. I think you may have mentioned the US Dept. Of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis previously. Their updated report of Q2 2022 GDP offers facts. “For the period of economic expansion from the second quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2022, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 8.1 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than previously estimated.”

      George, can we once and for all put all this ridiculous talk of a recession to rest? Thank you ever so much.

      • I have to agree that we are not in a recession.

        A recession requires 8 things and only 3 of the 8 have happened. Rates will continue going up until a recession is induced however because that’s how the fed does things while raping us. Until the available jobs number is reduced from 10-11 million down to 2 or 3 million and housing starts tumble and rents start going down (not up), and existing housing prices and sales fall drastically in a majority of regions (other than their normal Fall/winter decrease of 10-15%), and etc, etc, then we’re not in a recession.

        Rates will continue rising, however, maybe at .5% and .25% increases instead of .75%. This may be why the market is going up…the .75% increases may be over. The markets may consider this an easing of risk because it feels the uncertainty of what’s going on is over.

        If you read the AMEX posting I put below, you’ll see that even the big credit card companies are bewildered by the strength of the consumer.

        We are, after all, Americans, and we carry on no matter what. We’re stronger and better than the America haters who are trying to make us believe they are in control. Obviously, they are not in control…the American consumer is in control and is giving O’Bidet the finger.

        Please ignore the idiots in power and live your life!!! I’m not saying don’t be prepared, just get and be prepared and move on about living.

        We’ve had a conversation in my house about living in the present and in the future at the same time. At first when you start out prepping it can be a little difficult to think about living in the present, but get the major things done and get back to living normally while finishing up the minor preps.

        Ignore the noise, live, make money, take money out of the market and convert it to things that withstand the future.

        It’s like trading…plan the scenarios both ways, then trade what you see, not what you think.

  2. G, consider ure self lucky off road diesel in n.e, pa is $5.55gal on road $6.19 & climbing. peace & love too all

    • Many years ago, these stories would have appeared in “Ripley’s Believe It Or Not.” Robert Ripley founded the franchise to deal with bizarre events and items so strange and unusual that readers might question the claims.

      The only difference today is we no longer question the claims.

      • Another bazar thing about stories like these is, no one is cheering either. It’s crickets. One would think that at least a few of the 81 million who (voted?) for Biden would be vocal or applauding. Nope. Crickets. Ironically, no one is cheering about anything he does … they just “deflect” and say they hate Trump.

        Weird crowd.

      • “Another bazar thing about stories like these is, no one is cheering either. It’s crickets. ”

        amen @pathfinder Bob…when trump was in office it was twenty four seven.. non stop .. every politician was on the television all the time.. NOW look at all this that has been going on.. a pat on the buttocks of a younger woman brought many hours of comments by both sides and all the media .. crickets when it comes to the business and personal activities of the brandon family.. when it comes to thousands of videos and photos and racist language the documents etc.. and not one word.. sort of like the hildas emails…. the corruption is so vast that has been alleged that was standard family business.. and no one .. not one.. has said anything.. there are no hourly or daily not even a weekly comment on we have to stop any of this..

      • They aren’t. The idea is to make it so no act or action becomes “unbelievable.” Something from one of my long-ago psych lectures is tugging at me memory, but I can’t put my finger on it. I’d suspect George has readers who actually studied psychology, who could, though…

  4. Whoaaa. I went over to the overpass where the expansion joints make the thump thump thump thing. And a dude in a escape pulled up next to me with Oregon plates and had one of those handy cap things hanging from his rear view mirror. My rear view mirror fell off. And I looked at it. The handi cap thing made the Om symbol.

    Just like the om symbol. I guess we will see what I can record for you on the thumps.

    If some other weird shit doesn’t happen. I’m going to meditate for a bit before I record. Listen to some om chanting at 432 mhz for a little bit. Then I will record the thumping. I can hear it right now. Thump thump. Pause thump thump thump. Pause. Thump thump thump thump. It changes by how heavy the car is I think.

    Hmmmmmm

    • You have mail. You will need to filter it. It’s in mp3. There is alot of background noise. I’m sure you can figure it out.

      Going to take a nap, the gym, and see about 3 owls or wise men at the Who show.

      Truly, I am

      Que: ~ Who are you? ~

      https://youtu.be/MTWD52ny0Wk

      The Who

      • Funny it has a 0 with an arrow going up on a Bulls eye on that video. Since I often am known in certain circles as 0.

        Here I’m the Cosmic Chicken Bunny of which I prefer the most, just Andy.

    • Oh and the lyrics say,

      “I woke up in a Soho doorway”

      When I sent that I was standing in a door way in sodo. Down by the stadiums.

      Hahahhaha close

      Hahahaha

  5. “You’re a braver man then I, Gunga Din.” Jim Croce
    – I don’t see it. My numbers say ‘Maybe’.., and I don’t really like maybe’s., when it comes to trading. Well.., most of the time, anyway. I was tempted, though.., vveryyyyy tempted….,
    – Sittin’ & Lookin’ & Waitin’
    – We’ll see……………..

  6. George, Why the DJI 800 point Dow rise? … (because of third subfractal 7-8 day valuation growth saturation trading)

    22 October 2022: A reordering of the 24 January 2022 US equity 7/15/14/10 week series model into a three subfractal groupings model.

    New model from the March 2020 low: 33/66/54 weeks. The 54 final week third (decay)fractal starts 24 January 2022 and ends February 2023.

    The three sub fractal series totaling 54 weeks:
    1st subfractal series: 22//{(14/35) = 47}//33 days:: xy/2-2.5xy/1.5xy

    2nd subfractal series: 19/38/34 of 38 days :: xy/2xy/2xy (ending Thursday 27 October with Chinese/Hong Kong market low on Friday 28 October).

    Projected 3rd subfractal series: 13/33/33 days :: xy/2.5xy/2.5xy
    or 16/38/24 day :: xy/2-2.5xy/1.5xy
    ending in February 2023.

    Explanation for 800 point Dow rise: This was the 7-8 day third sub-fractal valuation trading saturation growth rise starting 30 September 2022 3/8/7-8/4-5 days.
    (using 4-hour fractal time units starting 130PM 30 Sept 2022: 6/14/15 of 15/1 of 9) :: xy/2.5xy/2.5xy/1.5xy

    Using this model a low will be made in late October 2022 and a final low in February 2023 with a Fed pivot to QE forced by projected negative economic growth and accompanied with significant valuation collapse of equities especially in the high debt Zombie companies which include US airline companies.

      • (Significantly) lower low .. This last Friday the Hang Seng composite’s close was at its lowest valuation for > 10 years and is below its 2011 low. After this next trading week the CCP will take further (inadequate) action to support the property market. But there is no reinflation escape solution to the junk bond dependent Chinese property bubble which represents the Chinese citizens’ life savings. Property devaluation will take the Chinese banking industry down with it – with an expected low in February 2023.

      • Ure on the right path with the USD moving up and making it cost more to buy stocks.

        When the supply/demand (a chart indicator used by big$) set up happens around 8am eastern (the start of cash open for commodities, etc) you just jump on the reversal coming up out of the demand box and ride it.

  7. Keep in mind that current technology enables drilling sideways from a drilling site as far as 26 miles laterally. This was the cause of Iraq invading Kuwait back in the day. In the Muslim world they don’t settle issues like this in court. The USA ambassador to Iraq gave Saddam the assurance we would not interfere, and untrue to our (USA’s) word, the rest is history.

    And BTW, historically Kuwait was a part of Iraq until the British needed to bribe some middle eastern family and gave them Kuwait. The same situation as the Ukraine. Except it was Russia and not the British or Americans.

  8. Penny Kelly comments on her Look-See at Jean-Claude’s site. She sees the coup happening just before Christmas. The elections will be messed with so badly the Bribem administration just tries to ignore the results and carry on like nothing has happened. Doesn’t work out so well for them. Martial Law is instituted and people appreciate it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyvsCpd8aqk

      • And that is all he ever has had – bullshit!
        This clown never has any kind of ideas, solutions..just more bullshit every stinking time he opens his controlled opposition piehole.

        If it looks like fecal matter, smells like fecal matter, and acts like Q..it must be a satan worshiping dia kinda turd -q

        “controlled”

      • I share your frustration with Juan. Just showing that more than one person out there is seeing a coup in our future and these people don’t talk to each other. Pretty sure Clif is seeing one, too.

  10. “Beyond this, there’s also the report (not getting high play) that “State TV pundits urge Vladimir Putin to create ‘epidemic’ in Ukraine.” ”

    With what?

    Russia has NO biological weapons program…

  11. “While it is true that a digital coin can be stored on a hard drive, color us skeptical of the idea that there will be enough surviving computers (and power to run them) in the post-apocalyptic world to be a rational base for economic transactions”

    It doesn’t matter if there are “enough” surviving computers. The connectivity also has to survive: The Internet itself must survive, along with sufficient nodes to facilitate the check/recheck/cross-check needed to sustain a blockchain.

  12. These Republicans are something else.

    What is the Republican message without free checks?

    RNC sues Google claiming campaign emails being sent to spam folders

    ” “Google has relegated millions of RNC emails en masse to potential donors’ and supporters’ spam folders during pivotal points in election fundraising and community building. The timing of Google’s most egregious filtering is particularly damning,” the RNC said in the lawsuit.”

    • My mailbox, out by the street, disagrees with this claim. I am averaging 4 mailings per day from Democrats and two from Republicans (or their respective committees…)

      The best thing about voting season is those lawn signs. The day after Election Day, if one moves early enough, they can acquire quite a stash of free, waterproof rifle targets.

  13. Do electric cars and yard equipment add up?

    33.7 kWh electric equivalent in one gallon gasoline.
    U.S.A. used 134,830,000,000 /gal gasoline in 2021. (4,543,771 GWh electric equivalent).

    The largest nuclear plant in 2021 U.S. was the Palo Verde Generating Station shipping 3.9 GWh annually.

    So substituting 2021 gasoline use with electric the U.S. needed about 1154.12 additional Palo Verde Generating Station sized nuclear plants.

    ??? If the math is right a radical event is coming.

    “The ratings are based on EPA’s formula, in which 33.7 kilowatt hours of electricity is equivalent to one gallon of gasoline, and the energy consumption of each vehicle during EPA’s five standard drive cycle tests simulating varying driving conditions.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_gallon_equivalent

    “In 2021, about 134.83 billion gallons (or about 3.21 billion barrels)1 of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, an average of about 369 million gallons per day (or about 8.80 million barrels per day).”

    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10

    “The Palo Verde nuclear power plant in Arizona is the largest nuclear power plant in the United States with three reactors and a total net summer electricity generating capacity of about 3,937 MW.”

    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=104&t=3

    • the problem is also thought of as “How many 250 W solar panels to I need?”
      Given there are at best 5 hours per day equiv. full charge ratel, you’re looking at 1.2 kilowatthours per panel.
      So our 30 panels here MIGHT put out 33 kwhrs (with nothing left for lighting, cooling, or selling back to the grid…to go at best where one gallon of gas can go (basically for us, into town and back)

      People who can’t do math shouold not be allowed to hold public office.

      Or, put another way, “Nothing shows a low IQ voter more than a Beto or Gavin yard sign.”

      • Izzat like Bernie’s claim that “We could give education for free to everyone in the United States, by simply adding a one cent transaction fee to every stock transaction…” ?

        WRT energy and work: If the work requires more energy than the fuel which powers the engine, which does the work, provides, the machine which is supposed to do the work, can’t, and any claims to the contrary are false.

        Common sense isn’t, any more…

    • This is why I said “roughly 11 million is the threshold…”

      When we’ve reached 11mln EVs, we will have maxed out our grid at its lowest point, and will have to sacrifice electricity for other things, to support the EVs. Until that point, EVs will be wonderful tech. After that point each and every one of us has a camel with a broken back and we’re going to have to dig the hole to bury him, by hand…

      • George, “doing the math,” or simply checking the validity (or physical possibility) of a claim doesn’t occur to them.

        You know I’m a “left-field thinker.” You give me a problem or a claim, I’m going to look at it first, to see if there is indeed, an issue, and then look at it from a bunch of angles to identify the exact issue.

        You can not solve a problem until you can identify that problem.

        Only after I validate that an issue exists, will I invest time in solving it. Like as not, my solution will be unconventional, and it may not be very pretty or efficient, but it will work and it will be repeatable.

  14. Amex did well on their top and bottom lines because the consumer is still rocking and rolling with lower debt and lower delinquencies than normal and their stock fell. It seems people are concerned because they raised their loss provision from $717million to $778million for bad debt.

    It seems that 9 months out is the point where this starts to change…so, next July we’re scheduled to have a consumer debt/spending issue…supposedly. We will wait and see and keep spending.

    American Express’s “…dichotomy between the strength in consumer spending and the increase in loss provisions echoed what Citigroup’s and JP Morgan’s reporting showed last week. They too increased loss provisions in the face of strong consumer spending and historically low delinquency rates. Bank management – across the board – is simply having a difficult time reconciling the rather hale (“free from defect, disease or infirmary” yep, I had to look this word up) consumer financial health against the backdrop of rising interest rates and inflation.

    Though it remains to be seen how this all shakes out, it’s hard to imagine, all else being equal, the mysteriously strong financial health of the U.S. consumer sustaining itself much longer.”

    Excerpt from:
    https://www.wellesleyhillsfinancial.com/2022/10/23/american-express-loss-provisions-add-to-mystery-of-strong-consumer/

    • Meanwhile… my AMEX card is accepted darn near nowhere now. Haven’t used it in years, but kept it open for the Delta SkyMiles I had accumulated. But in these pandemic times I have given up on airline travel. So when the annual fee renewal of $99 came due, I gave it all up and cancelled the AMEX card.

      • American Express peaked in Feb at $198 a share and has been on a steady decline ever since.., now around $140 a share.

        • We are surrounded by genius. Just like Alcoa – went from a $95 stock last yhear to half that now. And about to get their nips in the wringer for pushing the EU to sanction Russian Aluminum.

          This whole War as a series of Sanctions makes it possible to bring the horrors of war and its costs worldwide.

          I’d sure like to thank Joe the stupe Biden for starting a whole new kind of economic warfare on and for the American public.

          Go Brand, just…go.

  15. So bad but the hard moose finds a way to keep
    It going . He never wrong 73 !!! He is Apple and Stars and Stripes till his ticker blows up
    !!! Yeehaaaa !!!! Moooooo!!! Moose hard

  16. George – Alcoa announced last year that they will be permanently shutting down the smelter in Wenatchee.., after years of negotiations for better taxes, insurance and electrical rates. Lots of jobs are now permanently gone also. The stock price climbed at the announced “consolidation”. ., but when the war broke-out they peaked – at around $98 a share.., to $39 a share now. It will cost millions to get that smelter back up and running.

  17. NASDAQ 100 opened slightly in the red., I bought a Call spread.., got out when it is up 1.21 %.., it hung there for a while as it went up to up 1.26% I bought a Put spread.., it started dropping and closed at up 1.06%.., [ I had it figured at an Up close of 0.95% but there was a push in the last three minutes- so I missed that by a few basis points.]
    So.., I should be sitting nicely for tomorrow’s open. Already in the green..
    Tomorrow will tell…,’
    …., we’ll see.
    [.., and, no. There is no particular reason why I chose the 100.., I have been watching it for the past couple of weeks – and thought I would give it a shot.]

  18. Today’s close just touched my aggregate upper down trend line.., kissed it sweetly. That should indicate the end of this push upwards.
    …, we’ll see……….

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