Thousand Point Joe?
That Joe Biden is president-elect remains a contentious claim, despite the supportive news reports this weekend.
But, between the Pfizer CV vaccine news and poly-hype, the Biden Bubble might produce as stock futures were up over 1,000 points, and the S&P was on track to add nearly 130 to Friday’s euphoric close. The NASDAQ fell, however.
America should, for the sake of Truth-in-Advertising compliance, promptly rename itself the I.S.A. Irrational States of America.
Because we believe the “story” of how a lock-down and massive losses of production (and consumption) is a good thing is wholly delusional. Fairy, Pixie, or Angel dust. You get to choose. I’m going with Angel dust.
Rally Then Bust?
The upside breakout that’s forming has changed a key Elliott outlook. It’s now possible that the fall earlier this year (and the September drawdown, too) were mere Wave 4 corrective moves. That would present a future looking like so:
As with all Elliott explanations, there are a TON of asterisks.
- While this looks like a Wave 3 rally breaking above the old high at 1, we can’t be sure until it holds for a day or two.
- More worrisome, though, is that the rally could also falter as fifth wave failures do happen.
- Then, there’s the Replay of 1929 rhyme. And we’ll run out some projections on that Wednesday on the Peoplenomics side.
For now, Biden looks to be ascending (in a most Robert Mugabe) way with the specter of Made-Up-Money coming to pass.
There’s that haunting warning about “end times” in Revelations 6:6 that we’ve long wondered about. Does this foretell a period before humans ‘run out the clock’ of a hyperinflation?
“6 and I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, `A measure of wheat for a denary, and three measures of barley for a denary,’ and `The oil and the wine thou mayest not injure.’
Like the resonances or not, the “poisoning of oceans” is going apace. And did you see about the rivers running red in Russia? Then there’s the pestilence CV-19 which has now infected 50.5-million people. And then we see…no, let’s put this larger context aside, for now.
Instead, on the vaccine front, brace for a huge hype assault as Pfizer Says COVID-19 Vaccine 90% Effective Against Virus.
I will leave it to people of stronger faith and deeper learning to connect remaining dots. However, the discussion does lead to the subject of:
Value and Convertibility
We are, I believe, watching the final stages of “money” decoupling from “physical goods.” Because you “can’t eat paper” and you can’t “BBQ silver.”
Yet, as long as there are people silly-enough to (as we’re fond of saying) “Trade paper for perfectly good rum.” that’s fine with us.
The problem is we don’t know when the music will stop and someone (though hopefully not one of our readers) with find themselves without a chair.
As mentioned to Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend, the coming Thursday (and one after that) should be revelatory as the Fed’s H.6 Money Stocks confessionals come out after the close. We ought to be able to see just how much paper was thrown into the market in the past week, or so. But we already have some clues…
It’s Been a Global Effort
In addition to the U.S. Aggregate Index, we also track something called the Global Index – as we like to watch the spread between the U.S. and Rest of World market action. Last week, it was totally contrived-looking:
We also see “Inflation’s Return” in review of this morning’s commodity price boards on FinViz here.
In the short-term – while there will be many shocked republicans – in the very short term (until comes time to trade paper for real things) it will look marvelous. But, since the R’s have no incentive to pass a stimulus bill before the new House and Senate are seated, this is all very speculative.
But the market loves stimulus talk. And we are ashamed to be asking the obvious. Like “Where’s the beef?” (Or as Denmark culls, “Where the Minks?”)
Using Markets to Divine Future
Always a Fool’s Game. But, since I don’t mind being the Fool, now and then, (we all play it sometime!) let’s build a scenario that could fulfill chart patterns and, at the same time, lead to Depression in 2021.
Let’s begin with the big assumption behind the rally is Joe Biden has won.
Well, not so fast, there.
There are lots of claims of Election Fraud. Nevada might flip back into the Trump column just based on residents of other states (like California) voting there.
And, as CNN worries “‘Trump can still win’: The President’s supporters remain defiant.”
It isn’t just Trump supporters who are questioning the outcome since China, Russia hold off on congratulating Biden; U.S. allies rally round. And the BBC story “US election 2020: What legal challenges is Trump planning?” is worth a read. Because there are a number of routes which could change things, not the least of which would be the matter of the segregated late ballots in Pennsylvania.
Key quote out of the BBC story:
“His lawyer Rudy Giuliani told Fox News that it would be wrong for Mr Trump to concede because: “There is strong evidence that this was an election that in at least three or four states, and possibly 10, it was stolen.”
Those are tall claims. But, since the market needs only marginally higher from this morning’s futures pricing to complete minimal targets for a Wave 5 -iii, there’s some reason in the larger historical context to wonder where that leads.
Which explains – with all the legal-mumbo pending – why President Trump refuses to concede to Joe Biden. Whew.
We’ll be running market numbers for Peoplenomics Wednesday.
Also Worth Praying For
Get this out to your prayer group: AOC vs. DNC: Ocasio-Cortez Threatens To Quit Politics, Slams “Hostile” Dems For Not Being Progressive Enough.
News Marches On
Eta goes “hooking”?
Which shows that the storm will be heading south after drenching south Florida, then hook around and come back up into the Gulf and from there? Panhandle, maybe? Maybe the Weather Service should open a “weather book” and let people bet on local conditions. You know.. a little “creative government” to become more self-funding?
This And… Whatever…
Keep an eye on Chinese footwork ahead of the “reunification” grab of Taiwan we expect in 2021: Hong Kong Pro-democracy Lawmakers Threaten Mass Resignation. This one could weigh, too, since Shanghai and Hong Kong will be China’s succession to New York and Chicago as the financial power-center of the world rolls west.
Where to we sign up to be Product Testers? “False test results, lab shopping put cannabis consumers at risk, says the Marijuana Business Daily. “Ain’t nothin’ like the real thing, baby…” (Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrel, wasn’t it?)
Nutty in Nashville: 8 people – and a dog – were shot in a dispute over the canine. Gives new depth to the idea of “killer breeds.” Country’s going to the…what?
“Off With their heads?” Say, just how is that extremist spin on the Queen and Alice doing, right? Not so well as Austria Police Raid Dozens Of ‘Islamist-linked’ Targets. “Heading” off future troubles?
And, someone ought to “hand it” to the Russians as the Russia’s Football Team Captain in Masturbation Video Scandal. File under “one clap handing”?
ATR: Rain’s Coming
The week ahead in finance is pretty tame to lame: Small Business optimism tomorrow, take Wednesday off as it looks boring (though I may have to eat those words, depending on court actions). Thursday it’s CPI time…but not a lot of excitement. PPI (and ei-ei-o) Friday.
Which is fine. Because it’s going to rain this week which means U know who(me?) will be out leaf blowing all day.
As long as I keep ahead of the weather, it’s not too bad. Wet leaves are twice the work and I have a long-standing allergy to what?
More tomorrow as Play George After Light continues…
Write when you get rich,