No, you can’t blame Donald Trump for the shooting in El Paso this weekend, nor can he be blamed for the one in Ohio, either.

The facts, as they come out, make it clear that the shooter’s “manifesto” was not linked to Trump but to decades of Congressional inaction.  And, though it will make them even more crazy, the loud-mouth, in-your-face, militants in Congress who have made it clear as “inverted racists” that want to attack America from the inside.  Americans don’t like being “attacked” whether externally (as in 9/11) or as in the first “Red Scare” which swept America 1917 to 1920 following revolution in Russia.

While stupid people may buy into the “2020 Democrats lay blame on Trump’s rhetoric for shootings” the truth is a lot uglier, more pernicious and  dangerous than that.

It’s a poisonous mix of violent video games, social alienation, social media and the need to be noticed, the inaction by a derelict Congress, widespread over-medication of young people and we can even toss in the lefties in education.  Broken marriages and parenting failure, too.

Complicit in all this is a sycophant Northeast liberal press.  This morning, the NY Times lays it out as “El Paso Shooting Suspect’s Manifesto Echoes Trump’s Language.

What the “holier-than-thou” press misses, being out of touch with the patriotic middle to right in America, is that many of the manifesto claims were not those of Trump and were supported by data.

While it’s wrong to take direct, violent action, an open-minded read of the manifesto reveals a person who was acting as a patriot.  A word you won’t hear much in press reports which are hard-selling “racism.”

Oh, and without a word of criticism of the “In-Your-Face” anti-Americans who are long on criticism and blame, yet by offering nothing (beyond a rewrite of Canadian Green New Deal) have placed themselves as 30-year old demagogues who haven’t accomplished anything in life other than the trickery of language and the art of misdirection.

Trump didn’t shoot.  The border leaked.  There is an invasion yet these three simple facts are left out of the brainwashing media reports.

No, we are  n o t  standing up for the shooter.

The Bigger Picture

Think Markets and Massacres.

What we are reminding you is that last week, the Global Consciousness Project was showing an unusual (huge) amount of  global coherence and that – more than anything Trump ever said – is what’s  really going on.  Global coherence of the Global Mass Consciousness is not very well understood.

It would be easy to pass off as “woo-woo” except that in addition to mass shootings (which fit our 130-150 day mass murder cycle to a tee) we have a second indicator:  The collapsing stock market.

This morning, the Dow Jones will likely fall more than another 300 points at the open, according to the futures.

These shooters didn’t move markets elsewhere,  something else did.

Normally staid Australian markets were down 1.98%.

Then Asia opened and Hong Kong was down 2.85%.  That’s be like the Dow dropping 755-points (basis the Friday close).  And it had nothing to do with El Paso. Japan was down 1.74%.

As the global sense of panic evolves, we saw other indicators as European markets were coming online.  France opened down more than 2%.  Germany which got whacked last week was down more than 1.7%.  England?  Down 2.2%.

The panic…the global maniacal meltdown…is both global  and real.

Yet another indicators is in commodities:  Gold passed $1,456 and silver was up to $16.50.

Yet other commodities were reflecting a huge “inward pulling” which might be akin to something like “cocooning.”  OIl was down more than one percent,   Many commodities were down 1 percent and more…

The Strauss and Howe Turn

In “ The Fourth Turning”  Strauss and Howe laid out the broad framework for what is coming upon us:  From Wikipedia:

“According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) in which a new social, political, and economic climate exists. Turnings tend to last around 20–22 years. They are part of a larger cyclical “saeculum” (a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 90 years, although some saecula have lasted longer).

The theory states that after every Saeculum, a crisis recurs in American history, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which ultimately creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.”

A look around the web for guidance on “who’s who” lays out the Age Mapping this way:

2000 to Now: New Silent Generation or Generation Z.
1980 to 2000: Millennials or Generation Y.
1965 to 1979: Thirteeners or Generation X.
1946 to 1964: Baby Boomer.
1925 to 1945: Silent Generation.
1900 to 1924: G.I. Generation.

We note that the  Thirteeners/GenX are now rolling out of control and the Millennials are coming to the fore.  The first M’s, born in 1980 are now nearing 40, a time in life where people tend to “get real with themselves” about what Life’s about and what they’ve to do show for 40-years/14,600 days of sucking air.

Some Millennials I hold in extremely high regard:  Many are members of growing Maker Societies that are springing up all over the world.  Some, and on both sides of the political spectrum, however, are plain crazy.  The self-important  Squad on the one hand and the desperate/violently expressed  Patriots (as one identified himself) who turn to violence.

What’s gone wrong for Millennials?

  • The soaring divorce rate among their parents that collapse the handed-down process of values anchoring.
  • The mass marketing of violence-promoting video games.
  • Hamstrung teachers who, having failed to keep control of their classrooms, see to it that childhood medication is handed to Jane and Johnny as the first sign of fidgeting in a boring classroom.
  • The gig economy where permanence, and other “de-anchoring” takes place
  • And Apps like  Tinder than “hook up” the young all too easily, leading to an excess of disposable relationships.
  • Oh, and social media itself, the highest expression yet of the me-me-me generation.

All pretty sick, but again, Trump had nothing to do with it.  Repeat after me:  Social Media. (Read Inside the FBI’s effort to study social media posts of mass shooters).

Violent video games?  “The Evidence that Video Games Lead to Violence Is Weak:  Violent video games make people at most a little more aggressive.”  Not non-existant though.  We doubt you’ll see much made of this link, or its kindling effect on users.  It will be “politicized away.”

Especially because “Video Games Could Be a $300 Billion Industry by 2025 (Report).”  It’s reminiscent of the early days of the tobacco industry denials…  Stupidly, sadly too, it is being warped into a left-right context for the genuinely useless.  When the Washington Post says the link is “…not backed by research…” we remember Amazon’s boss owns the WaPo and how big an income stream are video games, controllers, boxes…?  Just asking.  Like climate, we living in a world of competing business models…

Yet Collapse is Possible Now

You can see pieces if you’re a studied generalist because they are all over the playing field today.  In the NY TimesDrug Overdose Deaths Drop in U.S. for First Time Since 1990.”

Yet it’s almost like good reporting at the Times comes from two different companies.  One anxious to tie in “Trump language” on the one hand, while the inverse twin explains to the effect “Millennials may be sobering up…”

The juxtaposition is impossible for the closed mind left, or the right extremes to consider.  They believe themselves the New Righteous Leaders of the New Generation coming to power.  Arrogant inverted racists on the one hand and drugged video-game-like gunmen defending country on the other.  COD, anyone?

The sane people remaining?  Well, like I said, there’s a rising
“Makers” movement and that’s where our future is coming from.  Which is why Elaine and I have a 3D printer.  Because we can see the world ahead wherein people will email each other things not brain waste like  emoji’s and “Likes.”

But, Where Trump IS Accountable

…is on his administration’s trade efforts.

Dow futures drop 380 points after China retaliates, escalating trade war” reported  CNBC.

Trump is between a rock and a hard spot on trade. We need exports and the Maxx grounding didn’t help.

Trump believes (wrongly) that if the US makes foreign goods more expensive that American enterprise will step up, build factories, and make products here at home.  And consumers will support it in droves.

While Trump wants that, because it would improve the balance of trade and thus reduce the federal deficit, past efforts in this direction have failed.  Badly.  No, make that horrifically.

Herbert Hoover, who Trump is reprising, made exactly the same mistake.  Except when put into practice, the public simply stopped buying.  The economy ground to a halt.  And while the Global Trade Wars of the 1930’s raged, activity on the docks dried-up and the longshore and stevedores were unable to find work.  Including a later heavyweight champion who was unable to get enough regular work in NYC to feed his family.

Americans today have virtually  no recall of who Braddock was, yet his rise to fame was written-up in Wikipedia:

” Braddock was known for his spoiling, counterpunching style, powerful right hand and his iron chin. He had lost several bouts due to chronic hand injuries and was forced to work on the docks and collect social assistance to feed his family during the Great Depression. He made a comeback, and in 1935 he fought Max Baer for the heavyweight title and won. For this unlikely feat he was given the nickname “Cinderella Man” by Damon Runyon. Braddock was managed by Joe Gould….”

At the sunset of the “individualism” that reigned during the lead-in to the Depression, which was leaving by the time the Depression was ending. people changed radically.  Individual sports stars included the likes of Jesse Owens who shined at the German Olympics, thus embarrassing Hitler’s upcoming “super race.”  Or two brothers in baseball, fading from modern memory: Daffy and Dizzy Dean.  But then team sports and a team mood swept America.

There’s a huge turn at hand in America.  The social media me-me’s are about to fail.  With their decline will come (says history) a generation of “group action” team players.

Yet, it won’t be without pain.  In coming years, we still have an analog to the Lindberg kidnapping to come (a mega crime) and lots of other adventures.

My point of this somewhat detailed commentary this morning is to point out the fallacy of applying politics and race-baiting to something so far more grand:  A generational change is upon us.  And we are continuing to act out the past in new – yet semi-predictable – ways.

Monday’s like this are useful.  An aware person will look around this morning and declare “ My, there’s a bunch of stupid people around who miss the larger historical context of what’s really upon us:  Yet, in Millennial Makers, in a coming resurgence of Making to a revitalization of Industrial Arts in America, maybe we can make something of this old Country, yet.  

But only if we’re a  team.  Which is where the political demagogues and partisan completely miss the boat.  Community rules in depressions.  Outliers are toast.

We have a crisis of spirit today along with a simple choice:  Reclaim American Exceptionalism and be Team America again.  Or, we will perish as scattered tribes led by idiots without a clue.

(Feel free to share this widely, on the off chance it will help the outcome we’re pulling for, even if we still have to walk through the Second Depression hell to get there.  That’s still ahead.)

Meantime, Back at the Train Wreck…

All quiet in the baggage car.  No sign of gunmen, but give it time.

The Fed Consumer Debt report will be out Wednesday afternoon. We may see a “leading edge” of decline and people going back to the “old ways” – namely, sitting on their wallets.

Then Friday come producer prices, but again, just a blip, not a huge market mover.

Will the decline of the past week force the EU to move-up plans for their September rate drop?  Maybe – it’s an interesting speculation, though this point in history is not a good one for investors  More applicable “Look up when walking under Wall St. windows…”

A report that Investors fear China may “weaponize” currency in trade fight, may bring two realizations:  One:  Precious metals mean something and Two: Bitcoins are backed by nothing.  Curiously, BTCs were $11,787 which is an astounding misjudgment in our view.

Has anyone besides us mentioned what the Modern Analog to the calling of both Gold and Silver in the Great Depression would be?

You got it:  Outlawing (or calling) Bitcoin and all the cryptos.

You see when the Depression becomes more clear, there will be a bums rush on anything of value before BTCs could go to zero on a regulatory move.  Just thought I’d mention it if you’re a gambler.  Pay for dinner first.

Useful Dope

Hot on the heels of our  Peoplenomics report on pandemic exposures ahead: Vas Narasimhan of Novartis: ‘We Are Not at All Prepared for a Pandemic’.

Lookout Boeing: Airbus starts building A220 in Alabama.

And keep an eye on: Kashmir in lockdown as India reveals plan to change state’s status.  War is due their this fall in our timing model.

Tango Uniform

(Totally Useless)

IBM and other companies launch new blockchain network for supply management.  OH, why?  What does a one-copy only technology matter?  Oh…marketing!

‘Hobbs & Shaw’ races into top spot at box office.

Confusion: Biden offers sympathy for the ‘tragic events in Houston today and also in Michigan’.  Dayton, Michigan?

Another turd in the ring: Beto exploits tragedy of El Paso shootings for sake of politics.

Victoria’s Secret hires Valentina Sampaio, its first openly transgender model… a coming rebrand as  Victor’s  Secret, perhaps?

OK, off to feed the hydroponic tomatoes…

Write when you get rich,

Markets: Mechanics of the Bounce
Prepping: For Ebola