Marchers vs. Markets – War of Distractions

Time for cooler heads – not empty ones – to prevail.

I want you to notice something about these “bombings”.  Damn odd, too:  The amateur pipe bomb story has seize the public’s attention, riled markets, and has driven the Central America Invasion off the front pages now, less than two weeks from the important mid-term elections.  Yet, when ricin was mailed to president Trump and other government officials, where was the media?  Ah…not on the agenda.

Regardless of who the perp turns out to be in this latest “bomb” fiasco, this has the effect of “swinging” our thinking about the level of the War on America a good bit.

You see, the crooked media- already partisans in the War to Take Down America – are not asking the most simple – and obvious questions.

First the story itself:  Nine “bombs” have been found so far, including one to actor Robert De Niro, says over here.

As someone who’s spent a fair amount of time on the “cop shop beat” as a cub reporter, the media has missed the one detail that matters.

How did ALL NINE bombs just “happen” to be intercepted???

Not trying to be a jerk here, but it all far too pat. I know a lot about statistics and this is pressing on probabilities.

When a “bomb” was found “near George Soros” home, how exactly was it discovered.  How exactly did Robert De Niro (or staff) learn of the “bomb?”

Did all the intended recipients just happen to avoid injury due to their skills at recognizing pipe bombs via their x-ray vision, or whatever?

This is a hard question and one that is not being asked…at least in the reports I’ve read so far.  And it’s bothersome..

The SECOND problem is the hype about “glass shards.” Too much and way over-the-top.

Sure, sure, if an explosion happens outside a big picture window, the blast over-pressure will send shards inward.  BUT, we find it suspect – depending on charge levels contained in the devices – why glass would be used?  Especially on a small device.  People are not so stupid as to think leaders open their own mail, are they?  I don’t believe it.

No, things like nails or BB’s would have made more sense.  But glass shards?

Here’s the thing:  Everyone I know has cut themselves on a broken glass at one point, or another, in their lives.  And it’s this widespread personal experience that make the term “glass shards” so emotionally hot from a psychological warfare (brainwashing and shaping) perspective.

As a practical matter, if glass shards were a primo bomb-making tool, performance spring steel, pre-weakened to explode in killing fragments, would have been used.  Nails, tacks…not something that might be pulverized into dust in the initial blast.  Yes, it would be damaging, but if this was a kill mission, not a PR stunt, whichever side gets nailed with the perp, it’s clear to us that there is more emphasis on opinion-shaping and burying the pending Central America Invasion.

“Parody ISIS flags” on the packages?  OK…but did the FedGov call every liberal Sanctuary City promoter and say “Don’t open packages with an ISIS flag!“?

Sorry to nag on point.  This just doesn’t fit with common sense statistics.

Fact is, in brainwashing (don’t know how much you’ve read) but having a “personal touchstone” makes it work so much better.  Everyone has cut themselves on a glass…few have had the horror is flying nails.  This is all about emotional tie-downs, at least in a first pass.

I happened to catch a few minutes of GroundZero last night – and much the same was being said.  To many found – too much like a “shaping operation” though they didn’t get into what was pushed out of the headlines.  But Clive Lewis made a salient point:

“This has created mass hysteria in the newsrooms that are predominantly left-wing mouthpieces for the Resistance against President Trump.

This attack is similar to the Ricin biological attacks that happened before the Kavanaugh decision was made. As I had reported that there would be a final blow event that would certainly affect us. I said it would be a biological attack. I was asked to be on Alex Jones and I declared it there. When it happened I was suspicious of it as it failed and so I was thinking that it was a trigger that would create copycat attacks. I was then asked to be on the Infowars program again and Alex asked me what is next and I said – an event that would start a war footing in the United States.”

This morning, the hysteria of the moment has passed.  What stories remain on the “invasion caravan” are downplaying and minimizing the arrival of the new hordes.  Take the AP’s “Sickness, fear, harassment in Mexico whittle away at caravan…” as an example.  Suddenly a non-event, eh?

Skepticism of all things seems the rational course.  Too many bombs found…we’re up against statistics, here.  Caravan?  On its way.

The “American Civil War?”

“Wake UP, the loudspeaker said…Wake UP!”   Sage advice from the Ground Zero’s show open.

We prefer the “possum” approach.  We will not choose sides until we’re clear who’s fighting.  Not enough data, yet.  And right now in America, seems everyone is fighting.  And that’s why we have long held this is NOT the Great Nation it once was.

Great Distraction, though, since our view is that a global economic depression is coming very close at hand now. What better way to keep people distracted and to pre-order more government controls?

So, a fine time for prepping this.  A good long-term food survival plan seems to be just the ticket.  A source of water than can’t be cut off and staying off to the side of polarizing discussions…yep, all part of the “possum play.”  Too damn many fronts open right now.  We shall await consolidation and then decide how to play through.

Panic on the Street

We know a few people who are professionals in stocks who think the S&P has a lot  more to fall.  Perhaps to the 2500 area.  That’d be another hundred-odd points down from here.

The bigger problem shows up in this chart where we line up 2000 as the nominal market high and match it against the early Depression years:

A visual inspection says there are two longer-term trend channels to be blasted and even then, until we get down to the level of 4, our fate is not sealed.  But the elections will be key and we sure like having a neutral position.

The most damaging outcome would be that all of the present decline is just a larger “:wave 1 down” and that we will rally, and then start a much larger move down.  As always, though, this isn’t investment advice, just an entertaining graphic to consider as markets go on imploding.

Durable Goods & Trade Data

Markets, at some level, are news-driven, though its impact long-term isn’t that great.  Today we have three data points just out of Census:

Plus, we have a Durable Goods Report:

The Futures are set for what we’d guesstimate to be a “dead cat bounce.”

No reason to be swept into the partisan idiocy with our hard-earned money, for crying out loud.  A True Believer in the GOP would go long in here confident of a red wave and a return to the upside.  Those who believe in the blue wave would stay short through the election.

Agnostics (like moi) will look at the account the day after the outcome…and see how AmRev2 is going.  Don’t expect partisan media to admit to it, but that’s where we see things.  So, low profile, non-confrontation, and keep a wary eye on the Digital Mob Rule promoters.

So Dow futures up 150 at click-time.

Short Shorts

Now It’s the Powerball’s Turn: Jackpot Rises to $750 Million After No Winner Wednesday.

Faint signs of sanity? Twitter monthly usage drops, company warns it will fall again.

Secure computing to come?  Quantum network to test unhackable communications.

Well, enough, already.  Enjoy the dahy and we’ll have moron the ‘morrow…

36 thoughts on “Marchers vs. Markets – War of Distractions”

  1. In the pictures I saw of the alleged bombs, I could not discern any postmarks. Anyone else notice?

    • Yes, the one photo I saw in the WSJ showed a package without a postmark. Also I believe one of the articles said the ‘bomb’ sent to Soros did not have a postmark. If that is the case with all of them, then either (a) one person is traveling along the East Coast and hand delivering these packages or (b) it is a coordinated effort with multiple individuals hand delivering packages.

  2. “markets go on imploding”
    What is going in East Texas that has G so distracted from Markets that he is not trading the “Slow Crash of 2018”?
    The triple levered ETF that is sometimes referenced here (SDOW) looks to be breaking out to the upside, thru 200 Day Moving Average. Looking at beating this “dead cat”with a big stick! I think some profits can be made beating a dead cat bounce with a triple levered SHORT.

    “Cry Havoc, and slip the dogs of war”
    W. Shakespeare, J. Caesar

  3. George, good insight on the bombs, especially how they are all being discovered before being opened. Looks like another scam against PT.

    Good thing PT keeps his eyes on the ball & won’t let go of stopping the caravan. We are lucky to have a President who won’t be intimidated. PT has steel balls as Alex Baldwin said was needed to sell Real Estate in the movie Glengarry Glen Ross, exactly the industry PT
    grew up in & prospered, & now he is prospering as President & the American people are the beneficiaries. Hopefully his son runs for President after his father to keep the pressure on.

  4. PM’s used to react to real world risks. For the moment, they’re doing nothing. I don’t know what to make of this. There’s still almost two weeks of silly nonsense before we get to the election, FWIW. I think most folks that see the situation analytically realize that the fake bombs are just a political stunt, but the blue types may take them at face value. The problem is when/if the lefties decide to escalate. Then real people can be hurt.

  5. As George notes, certain things line up in a rather wonky kind of way with regard to the ‘laying pipe’ amongst the political left. The fact that none of the devices detonated, or no one claimed responsibility, leaves one to consider the two following alternatives to this not necessarily being the work of a nut job right wing wacko individual or group:
    1) This may be the work of external nation or non-nation state actors intent upon sowing dissent among Blue and Red America
    2) This may be a ‘false flag’ generated by political operatives opposed to all things Trump

    Strange times – trust has become a rare commodity.

    • Socionomics readers know violence commonly happens near stock market crashes:

      Wasn’t able to paste the link, but you can google this to see the charts (Image), which makes his case much clearer (dump your exogenous causes thinking):

      Would a Terrorist Attack Crash the Stock Market?

      Terrorist violence seems like a solidly bearish factor — and yet…

      by Vadim Pokhlebkin
      Updated: October 22, 2014

      You may remember that after the 2008-2009 crash, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did they fail?

      And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

      The “10 Popular Investment Myths Shattered” series gives you a well-researched answer. Here is Part VIII…


      Myth #8: “Terrorist attacks would cause the stock market to drop.”

      By Robert Prechter (excerpted from the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist; published since 1979)

      I assume this is what economists mean when they say that something unexpected such as a terrorist attack would cause them to re-evaluate their stock market forecasts. At least, I doubt they mean that a terrorist attack would cause them to revise their estimates upward. It seems logical that a scary, destructive terrorist attack, particularly one that implies more attacks to come, would be bearish for stock prices.

      Take a moment to study Figure 17. Surely all of these exceptionally dramatic swings in the DJIA must have been caused by equally dramatic news: bad news at each of the peaks and good news at each of the bottoms. At least that’s what the exogenous-cause model would have us believe.


      As it happens, there was indeed a lot of dramatic news during this time. For one thing, there were surprise terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, first the “9/11” attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon and secondly the slew of mailings of deadly anthrax bacteria, which killed several people, prompted Congress to evacuate a session, and caused havoc lasting months.

      Where on the graph of stock prices would you guess all these events have happened? If you guessed “six trading days from a major bottom and all through a six-month rally,” you would be correct. But if you are an exogenous-cause advocate, you would not have made that guess. Figure 18 notes these occurrences.


      The 9/11 attack occurred more than halfway through a dramatic price decline and only six trading days from its end. Afterward, despite deep concerns that more such attacks were in the works, the stock market rallied for six months. The first anthrax attack occurred on the very day of the low for the year, and the attacks, deaths and scares continued throughout the strongest rally on the entire graph. To put it more starkly, the market bottomed when they started and topped out as soon as people realized they were over. If one were to insist upon a causal relationship, one would be forced to conclude that anthrax attacks are bullish for the stock market.

      This kind of perverse conclusion is what we invariably reach when examining an exogenous-cause case along with actual data pertaining to it. This is why economists after World War II (see Figure 12 in Part VII) decided that wars were good for the economy. Figure 18 has similar implications for public policy. Should we encourage crazed people to send deadly packages in order to get the stock market to go up? This idea is no dumber than advocating war to get the economy rolling. But the evidence for it is right there, just as it was for the supposed “oil shock” of 1973.

      We have uncovered at least one irrefutable fact: Terrorist attacks do not make the stock market go down. The assumption behind economists’ repeated implications that terrorist attacks would constitute an “exogenous shock” that would serve to drive down stock prices is shown to be completely wrong.

      Apparently political events and conditions, like economic events and conditions, have no consistent causal relationship to the rise and fall of stock prices.

      Happily, we are not entirely alone in making this observation. In the aforementioned 1989 paper, authors Cutler, Poterba and Summers concluded,

      “There is a surprisingly small effect [from] big news [of] political developments…and international events.”

      That is indeed the case. But it is “surprising” only to devotees of the exogenous-cause paradigm, which means virtually everyone. Proponents of socionomic causality and the Elliott wave model of financial price change are not surprised in the least.

  6. Megan Kelly was hosting her show today after CNN said yesterday she would not be hosting. I guess she is becoming too much a PT supporter for CNN, & they are looking to help foster her firing.

  7. I don’t think it’s unusual that the packages were all intercepted. Most of these people have Mail Handlers. When you are famous, the first rule is to never open your own mail. There are weird people out there sending anything from disturbing photos, underwear, locks of their hair, and yes…substances that could harm them…likewise, Large Corporations have mail security, and so do people like Robert De Niro, Obama, Soros, etc. Hell, my company has a mail room and it’s own amateur form of security.

    As far as the motive…It could be anything from a far right nationalist group wanting to just send a message and get a bit of attention or just a lone wolf type and really odd dude who is taking matters into his own hands because he is one of those types that sees images of Jesus in a ham sandwich and went to a Trump rally and thought that Trump spoke to him.

    Either way, as I said yesterday, Trumps Bullhorn Politics don’t work. He is creating anger and anger creates mental distortion. Like alcohol, it lowers our ability to have rational thought. This is where we are. Ricin sent to the President and scare bombs sent to people that challenge and particularly don’t like Trump. All of these events are a result of a growing anger that Trump was elected to address and reconcile. The angry, forgotten people elected him…yet all his election did, was create an exponentially growing number of even more angry people. Like a disruptive athlete on a struggling football team, we need a trade.

    • Mark: What you missed was that none of the bombs exploded which is highly unlikely, & that the angry mobs are paid thugs paid by Soros & the Dems. The real Americans are working.

      Also, that was the Virgin Mary on a grilled cheese that sold for $28,000.

      • What you miss is that my message is very simple…Any other Republican President would NOT have gotten us into the angry mess we are in today. It is out of control and Trump is the megalomaniac that fuels the fire. There really is no other reasonable way to look at it.

        Even George W. with all of the conspiracy hogwash surrounding 9/11 didn’t cause this much anger amongst his detractors. Reagan was loved by nearly everyone. George H. was somewhat ineffectual, but other than a really great Dana Carvey impersonation of him, wasn’t really disliked.

        The only other person capable of creating equal amounts of anger as Trump, lost the 2016 election, thank goodness. Trump with his ugly ego, lack of the basic tenants of governance, pathological lies, 3rd grade name calling, ability to fool all of HIS people, ALL of the time, ability to gaslight every topic and lack of respect from even his own people is so evident…that I am dumfounded as to why his base of people aren’t seeing what 70% of the rest of us see. It is mind blowing that a man of so little character is leading this country…and because of his ego, would rather lead it into ruin that admit that maybe his Bullhorn Politics are not working.

    • Just one other thing, sir…

      Is some of youse thinking why…could Dems mail to themselves?

      Exit stage left while everyone is looking alt-right?

  8. It seems obvious to me. First not enough postage on those packages. Second the stamps have not been canceled. Third who delivered packages with insufficient postage.

  9. I think somebody decided that the Caravan was not the pro Dims event they thought it would be and decided there needed to be another diversion. Saw the report that the “migrants” were all loaded onto trucks as soon as the news people left.

    I am totally without a clue as to how this will come out when they get to the border. I was hoping hurricane Willa would take out a few bridges and create a dear but I guess not.

    What I do know is that each of these countries, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras should all have their relations with the US put on hold and a total shutdown of border crossing and trade until there is some sense of a common solution to this. Its time to create real pain in the ruling classes. No more drugs, no more illegal immigration, and no more nonsense.

  10. You have asked pertinent questions re mailings. Does it surprise anyone why the MSM was so into it?

    MSM pointed out to the general public how stupid they are to believe “crap” of this nature, so sorry. It’s too orchestrated!

  11. I would just say that whatever the MSM is frothing at the mouth about, should peg your propaganda meter to the right and bend the needle in the process. And the level of ignorance from the people that would argue this content, is absolutely staggering. I guess now days people just need something to feel right about, since most of our world just isn’t right, and they feel powerless to do anything about it. Therein lies the problem, people feel powerless to change a world where their lives are not their own !!

  12. The other shoe dropped when the Saudi leadership pulled a plausible deniability reasoning for their citizen’s embassy exit from earthly concerns that mimics a president’s 2018 fictional book.

    The tome’s lead-in acknowledgement page went on at length. The former First Lady received third billing after a lawyer and an editor. She suggested that the authors should “keep it real”.

  13. Gosh, I just hope all this bomb scare stuff doesn’t delay the novelty stick of dynamite alarm clocks I mailed them earlier this week.

  14. A couple of items of note and comment, further to your post this morning regarding the reported bombings, this Hollywood scripted fictional news only serves to highlight the depth of incompetence impressed upon the American public. Using the example of Ted Kaczynski and not to encourage or promote his despicable act he accomplished what he wanted to do. It is self evident that America is incapable of even accomplishing a heinous act!
    Here in Canuckistan we were faced with a river of crocodile tears caused by any increase in interest rates. The story line was unequivocal as to how the debt slaves would be overwhelmed by a 0.25% increase. Interestingly, there was not one word how those of us on fixed incomes and private pension funds have forced us over the last decade to adjust our eating habits from round steak to round state with the rind on it. Those of us who were traumatized by the market drop in 08 may even have had to survive on cat food due to the zero interest rate policies of the central banks and we are to be sympathetic as we watch the debt slaves in a nation with the highest debt to income ratio on the planet. Lastly, we have a lot to be thankful for as within the last week we now have the legal WEED, increased interest rates from the central bank and we don’t have Trump.

  15. Thought seeds words used to influence how people think…. Example…. WMD…. Active shooter…. Bomb….
    The glass in the fake bomb….. Glass is transparent. .. Why all the postage for a hand delivery….yup lot of unanswered questions..
    How they plant the thought seeds is disturbing though.

  16. The Democrats cannot win in November! Their old genre of working the public to get power no longer works! People got tired of empty promises and “trinkets” handed out before an election. Remember it has been said, “You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all the people all the time!”

    They do NOT KNOW how to deal with Trump! They missed the boat on that one. They are in disarray, and when in disarray, desperation sets in. When one gets desperate, STUPID things are seen as the way to go forward. Need I say more?

    OK, how does Trump fit in all of this? Simple, he has cultivated the personae of a “loveable rouge.” Not sure what this means? Here is how google describes it:

    “The lovable rogue is a fictional stock character, often from a working-class upbringing, who tends to recklessly defy norms and social conventions but who still evokes empathy from the audience or other characters.”

    Well half right. Maybe his generational parents were from a working-class family, but he was not!

    So how does one deal with something like that. You can’t. Its pointless to use his defiance of norms and social conventions as cannon fodder to shut him down. All it does, is evoke more empathy from the crowds. His playlist has to run its course! It is a time for change, for better, or worse. Just as Caesar reminded his generals who were upset they did not have a good battle plan, he said, “A bad plan is better than NO plan!” If you have a bad plan, it quickly becomes obvious what has to be done. With no plan, one flails all over the place not knowing where to go.

    Change of topic, Megan Kelly and her “Mea culpa” over a politically incorrect slight. My son overslept and asked for a ride to class. (Not a frequent event, but a welcomed one) since it is a golden opportunity to have a “heart to heart” chat with him. Asked what his classmates (of his generation) thought of Political Correctness!

    He said, “Political Correctness is Fascism disguised as good manners!”

    What more can I say? “Wisdom from the mouth of babes!”

  17. So is there any reason why the “immigrants” at our southern border asking for asylum cannot wait for their court date in MEXICO? Why do they have to be let into this country? Mexico is the one that let them into and traverse their country to get to our border. Let them be responsible for and take care of the them while they wait for our court system to catch up.

    • This is far too level-headed an approach. Such heights of thoughtfulness can not be allowed because it doesn’t further the goals of the coup leaders – namely more division and hate.

  18. “How did ALL NINE bombs just “happen” to be intercepted???”

    Kind of like asads gas attack on the people after DJT announced we were pulling out..
    Or the sarin mail that targeted congressmen that was against the patriot act..only to discover it came from an extremely high security chemical weapons depository in the USA…

  19. “A visual inspection says there are two longer-term trend channels to be blasted and even then, until we get down to the level of 4, our fate is not sealed. But the elections will be key and we sure like having a neutral position.”

    This I don’t get ;-( you’ve marked “5” in the US aggregate, but then you refer to the elections. What does “the elections” have to do with Elliot Waves? Just asking

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