The CV19 – Money Supply Train Wreck

Or, “How to Steal Without Robbing….”

Yeah, you’d think you can’t “steal from someone” without  robbing them, right?

For mere mortals, the likes of us, that’d be the case.  But in the CRAZY world of Made Up Money (*disguised as “Modern Monetary Theory” which is a misleading label for Marxist Monetary Theory, which is turn is Silently Seizing the Means of Production…) this is EXACTLY what’s going on.

I’ve been blessed to have been “schooled” on some very different (honest!) ways of looking at money and government policies by some real geniuses in clear-thinking.  Howard Ruff, for one.  And Dr. Paul Erdman, for another.

At the core of the learning is a simple notion:  Money is never  absolute.  

There’s a simple thought-experiment that will make it clear.

Suppose we have three people and each of then has $10-dollars.  Along comes you – ‘natchul-born’ sales guru that you are – and you offer the group this “gotta have it” new whizzy.  The top price that can be paid?  $10-bucks, unless two of the three cooperate.  (We don’t allow conspiracies in thought-modeling…)

Now let’s change the equation around.  Suppose now that each of our three marks has $6,453,221.25 each.  This means (again, you playing the role of Super Salesperson) you will be able to sell the same “gotta have” for how much? $6,453,221.25!  

Ceteris parabus, one of the most-useful (*and to the old UrbanSurvivalist more important)  tools in economic thought, mean what exactly?

Ceteris paribus or caeteris paribus is a Latin phrase meaning “other things equal”; English translations of the phrase include “all other things being equal” or “other things held constant” or “all else unchanged”. A prediction or a statement about a causal, empirical, or logical relation between two states of affairs is ceteris paribus if it is acknowledged that the prediction, although usually accurate in expected conditions, can fail or the relation can be abolished by intervening factors.[1]

A ceteris paribus assumption is often key to scientific inquiry, as scientists seek to screen out factors that perturb a relation of interest. Thus epidemiologists, for example, may seek to control independent variables as factors that may influence dependent variables—the outcomes or effects of interest. Likewise, in scientific modeling, simplifying assumptions permit illustration or elucidation of concepts thought relevant within the sphere of inquiry.”

In our example above, the key takeaway is “Price is dependent on Money Supply.”

Right, then!  Who’s Jacking Up the Money Supply?

Why, it’s America’s not really Federal and they don’t really have any Reserve.  Though tax-demands backed up by a military works…

What they do have is America’s money supply by the gonads.  And they are squeezing like hell trying to keep the smelly stuff from hitting the fan and pretending there’s “No Robbery!” in process.  Well, there is….

Two tables (H.6 Money Stocks) updated after the market close Thursdays, reveal what has become  the “necessary con.”  Pay attention to the dates in the following summaries which any damn fool can find on the Fed website.  (Otherwise, I’d have never found ’em!):  Dates matter because we are talking about two “sliding windows.”

This first one ended the last day of April  (*which is what TO MAY means):

The second “slider” (with apologies to White Castle) is the one that ended about ten-days ago:

So What’s Going On?

This part’s easy.  The Fed is “Robbing (purchasing power) without (outright) Stealing.”  Here’s how it works:

Remember the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (June 25 if you’re semi-eidetic like, er…uh…yeah…)?

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The decline is the same as in the “second” estimate released in May. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

Now, think this through carefully and include in your thinking that the employment data shows an economy that has taken about a 30% “hit” from Covid-19.

In other words, say we were running along at 100% (a notional number) but went down 15% in March, so the averaged drop is GDP was about 15% which is where the BEA numbers (kinda-sorta) hang together…  If the economy was level two months out of three then to make a three month average down 5% one month would need to be down 15%…following this?

Reciprocals Matter

With some basic math, we can actually infer what the Real Hit on GDP has been.  Let’s use the following method:

  1. If the economy was rolling at 100%…
  2. And we estimate it is now rolling 70%, then:
  3. With the economy at 70%, how much money needs to be “made up” to “pretend” the economy is really OK?
  4. Simple math problem:  100 divided by 70 equals 1.428571428571429 times or 42.857%.  To round-off a bit, the Fed has to jack up the money supply by 1.43 times in order to paper-over a 30% disaster and leave your normalcy bias intact.

Advanced Math

Yippy-skippy!

We might then speculate (which encompasses a whole lot of economics, politics, medicine, and life lately, lol) that if the Fed has really jacked up the 6-month money supply (Table 2, above) by 51.9% in the shorter window, what is the real hit to the economy?

Simple enough:  100 divided by 1.519 which is (roughly) 65.83278472679394-percent.

Subtract the “rounded-off” 65.83% from 100 and the answer is CV-19 has (on a short-term cash basis) whacked the economy by 34.17% compared with January.

As the country goes back to work, we see the short-term stimulus being reduced, and indeed from the May 1 level down to 10-days ago, we see the jacking-up of M1 has reduced from 105% annualized basis the 90-day to 93.1% annualized 10-days ago, so in about 2-months, the decline in wild printing has been 11.9%.  Can’t take the financial crack off the table or the economy will get seizures…markets could tumble…

As you can (*or should be able to mentally visualize) if M1 is coming down (at some fictional) 5% per month (to pull a number out of the air) then at some point the spread between the 93.1% and the one year rate of 31% ought to converge…This pencils out around 12.4 months hence.

Whee!  See how easy and useful economics can be?

Well – Except for the Inflation Part…

Here’s the “baked-in” deal:  The result unfortunately is that America will likely head into a period of about 30 percent annualized inflation (a year out, as markets normalize around the new fiat to goods reality).

We could take this 30% idea and offer some useful projections:

  • The Ure’s little 30-acre “slice of woods and toys” which can be had for about $350,000 today will cost $455,000 a year from now. Ure’s net worth goes up $105,000.  Ure’s lifestyle doesn’t change.
  • Gold, which was around $1,775 this week, ought to be up to $2,307, or thereabouts.  Again, Ure’s lifestyle doesn’t change.
  • Bitcoin, and other “made-up money” should climb also, EXCEPT the FedGov at some point will tire of non-regulated competition and may move to outlaw cryptos, the same way gold and silver were both “called” in the Great Depression.
  • Oh, and the stock market ought to climb 30%, as well…which might drive the Dow upwards of 33,575.
  • Oil could climb, as well.  Something like $52, but more likely (due to the prospect of insufficient supplies due to under-drilling for a couple of years) could be back in the $60-$70 range.

Which MIGHT save Houston, but won’t help Minneapolis which – by our reckoning – has cut its own financial throat by attempting to end effective law-enforcement.  Commie are crazy…try to remember that.

Going into the Fourth, that’s how we see it.

Charts Only on our Peoplenomics.com subscription side tomorrow.  I could have put this all up for subscribers only but we still have markets open in Ure-Up today, so the charts will drag by sorry-ass out of bed in the morning.

Around the Ranch

Hotter’n blazes.  Peoplenomics readers can use the “shop weather forecast” technique I laid out in the air conditioning issue to see why getting into the shop early and going like hell till 11 AM, or so, is critical.

Tomorrow (or Sunday?) A special Ham Radio edition.  Work has continued in Antenna Modeling of my new ?  Super Antenna III.  And to test, I need reader “William of the Radio Ranch” to send me the length of his “half-wave” stealth antenna.  Haven’t run the model against it, but another 1-2 dB of ERP for a bit more wire?  What’s not to love.

Short version – if you can’t wait:  My model says adding some specific wires (which is cheap) may improve ERP by 2 (or more) dB.  Not really patentable (which is really only a license to sue, anymore).  But let’s see when it goes up if Ure could do an article for QST, or something.


Good News from Up North:  Firefighter/EMT son does NOT have CV19.  Though two firefighters in his department have tested positive…


Cats and Elaine are all dandy…Planning “online cocktails with friends” this afternoon, so yeah…another day in paradise.

Except for the neighbor kids down the road who lash up multiple M-80’s.  Hmmm…teenage boys…hmmm…  Anyone have a .mil recruiter’s business card I could leave with a note?  Something like:

“If ya’ll like blowing shit up, rather than disturbing the peace of your neighbors, why not get paid for it?  Call this guy…  If you don’t, we will light up the range with the AK’s and tracers at 3 AM some morning…”

So goes life in the woods… The world is crazy, but screwy as it is, it beats the alternatives.  Until we’re assured of cold brewski’s in the afterlife…

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

(Good job on the day off, George!)

55 thoughts on “The CV19 – Money Supply Train Wreck”

  1. Come on George lighten up it’s the 4th weekend! Let the kids be kids! You can’t tell me you never lit up a M-80, silver tube salute, or cherry bomb to celebrate! Have a couple double toddy’s for breakfast to take the edge off!

  2. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html

    cdc admits that the common cold can have you test positive for covid 19.

    Hospitals around Kansas city are laying off staff because nobody feels safe going to them because of all the hype.

    My wife needs a heart operation. When she went to the hospital for a test she had her temperature taken and a mask put on when she got there. By the time she got back for the procedure they tested her temperature again and said she was running a fever. She did not have one it was caused by the mask. She has also died 7 times. She gets a certain look when it is about to happen. She got that look wearing a mask for a short time.

    I do believe the virus is more serious than the regular flu. The problem I have is in finding reliable information on exactly what is happening. The cdc is one of the last sources I would Trust. All one needs to do is watch the way they handled China and the amount of flip flops they have made on what the public should do.

    • The reaction of each person that contracts it runs in a wide range of severity in the body’s reaction and ability to deal with it. It’s a very individualistic reaction that must be handled according to how you know your body. Too much personal experience with medical people makes trusting them a very hard sell.

      • Or, you can be one of the rare humans that trusts your own instincts and intuition. I am in my 60’s – I take no drugs, no vaccines, and do not go to the ‘doctors.’ Certainly, I would go to an ER for a severe laceration or broken bone, but beyond that, I avoid. I had plenty of encounters with vaccines many years ago in the military. Btw, I don’t wear masks and social distance, and don’t know a soul here in FL that has had Covid and between my better half and me, we have lots of family, extended family, friends, neighbors and business colleagues here in FL!

        There is a different way of being. I am fine with people wearing masks, bandanas, face shields, gas masks, or whatever! I am NOT fine with this notion that others must enforce lockdown on others as well as masks and social distancing. Even the very smart people on George’s site here don’t seem to see the larger context here. For some like me, it’s about freedom of choice and the ability to live from one’s internal guidance rather than the guidance from CDC, WHO, NIAID or the Harvards of the world!!

      • Stephen, and harvaaard IS SO CORRUPTED!!!! Look at all the looney’s that SERVICE us in the USA Congress & Senate, etc…..HAHAA VAAARD ITES….they also vote for other countries health, interest, and benefits ahead of ours!!!!

      • I believe we should follow the safety precautions.. even if it is all hype.. I knew a really well known surgeon in these parts that didn’t think washing his hands was a big deal.. or changing his clothes.. he went to Africa to get his tax write off and his wife caught what was running around.. it was probably one of the most horrific things I seen up to that point.. and there was only three of us that were brave enough to take care of her.. he couldn’t even walk in to see her.. he retired shortly after that incident.. never to operate again.. I think it was because of guilt.. I am not scared of it.. but I respect it.. and I respect the cdc and the who.. I would be devastated if I because I really didn’t believe in the safety precautions pass a horrible disease to someone else.
        seriously what harm is there in putting a mask on.. it isn’t going to hurt you.. even if it is all just hype..
        I have seen some pretty nasty stuff working in Healthcare.. G2 has to.. he was even going to write a book on some of it.. which I am waiting for.. all because people didn’t feel safety precautions were worth following..

      • Social distancing I get but masks are a placebo. Everyone is fully aware of the other avenues of infection that are completely open. It’s the madness of crowds.

      • “harvaaard IS SO CORRUPTED!!!! Look at all the looney’s that SERVICE us in the USA Congress & Senate, etc…..HAHAA VAAARD ITES”

        Harvard Is ok hahaha. .they have a great research center and the professors are fun to debate with..

        YALE is quite another story if you ask me. Most people cant give any reference to any yale study .. even though I read one that was good.
        It’s pretty much referred to as a yuppy grand dads school. Lol I am sure they have great professional teachers they just hate to let anyone know about it. Lol

  3. *NOTICE* Some of what follows may be ignorant speculation, or gross over-simplification. Since I have a simple and often inummerate mentality, it may sound good to me, but be Dead Wrong.

    An end-fed half wave is (…drum roll…) a half wavelength long.

    The trick is that the end is at a high Z, high-voltage point. The minimum Z and the minimum voltage loop is in the middle — which is why most of half-wave dipoles are fed in the middle, with “low” Z co-ax.

    The Z at the END may be around 4000 to 7000 ohms Z. (Apparent)

    The diameter of the wire, and the dielectric of the insulating coating (if any) confuses the purity of the math, otherwise the END is literally at an infinite impedance. (Z) Some physical trimming will usually be needed for best results — regardless if the half-wave is end fed or center fed. RealWorld, and math often do not perfectly agree.

    If any end -fed wire has a natural good impedance match, then it’s an accident of guessing right.

    For most truly random end-fed wire antennas, the Z-match will be very poor at ALL ham bands. Any accidental resonances will be well outside of the ham bands.

    The genius of the modern end-feds is to simply say, “OK, it’s a lousy match, always — so feed it with a very high turns-ratio TRANSFORMER to take the low co-ax Z, and transform it to the whoopee high Z the end presents,

    The guys supplying multi-band end feds, select the wire length to ALWAYS be a lousy match, very high-Z, and just run everything through the transformer.

    These transformers are often formed from one or more — usually more: up to three — torroidal cores, stacked, with a high turns ratio over the combined stack, like forty-nine to one ratio. (Three turns primary to seven turns secondary make a 49:1 ratio.)

    Torroid stacks can be found on eBay, some are pre-wound and circa less than fifty bucks,
    making home-brewing one of these not-too-hard. They average around three-inch diameter, with the triple stack being maybe also around two or three inches. There are some tricks and trapdoors in this, but a little reading around via Goggle will show you the tricks. They aren’t formidable.

    Torroids “saturate,” heat, and fricassee easily — so get plenty of extra power-handling capability. Fricaseed torroids “go funny” — permanently.

    Or… You can just buy a nice full-kilowatt (rated) fully assembled end-fed multi-bander from “myantennas.com.” See eham.net for some reviews. MFJ makes a less-pricy one, but I think you get what you pay for.

    The 75 meter to 10 meter myantennas.com model runs around $175 or so. The MFJ is cheaper. The myaantennas one is 132 feet long, and is… …well… ..end fed — no drippy, heavy co-ax in the middle to make ti droopy and ugly.

    Consult the literature via Goggle and eham.net before you decide.

    For my convenience, I bought the myantennas “7510” model, which covers 75 meters through 10 meters. They say it’ll do some 160 meters at reduced power-handling rating. Works for me.

    73

  4. ““steal from someone” without robbing them, right?”

    Down in our cockles we know we are getting scammed. That’s what I think the social violence is about. We have nothing to lose, except for debt shackles of the previous generations and all the corruption that got us here.

    We saw the one where the Amazon delivery guy got mad and left the truck. What can Amazon do, sue the driver for a gorllion dollars? Amazon drivers don’t have any money. They are broke.

    Look to USPS again. I thought at least once over my life Ive heard they may shutdown…. and here it is again.

    “A group of 137 House lawmakers sent a letter last week asking for Congressional leaders to provide a $25 billion bailout for the Postal Service due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

    The letter says that the emergency funding is necessary to help the Postal Service “to offset COVID-19 revenue losses and allow improved access to borrowing authority from the Department of the Treasury.””

    Where did their money go?

    “USPS – The average starting pay for an entry-level postal employee is $21 an hour with benefits.”

    That’s 42, fifty-cent stamps per hour.

    They should go ask Jeff.

    “Jeff Bezos’s net worth has smashed through its previous peak, even after he relinquished a quarter of his stake in Amazon.com Inc. as part of a divorce settlement last year.

    Shares of the Seattle-based retailer surged 4.4% to a record $2,878.70 Wednesday, boosting the founder’s world-leading fortune to $171.6 billion. That tops his previous high of $167.7 billion, set on Sept. 4, 2018, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.”

    • The Post Office is in the Constitution, Section 8: “To Establish Post Offices AND Post Roads.”

      Bezoyski is not, AND Americans, each time they order through his mafia style organization, amazon, they sell the USA out. HE ALSO DOESN’T PAY SQUAT AND THE WORKING CONDITIONS SUCK!!!!

      https://www.changeofaddressform.com/10-reasons-post-office-important-u-s/

      https://politicalcharge.org/2020/04/13/the-post-office-is-in-trouble-heres-how-to-help/

      https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-the-united-states-postal-service-4076789

    • The Post Office is mandated in the Constitution as a governmental entity. We “privatized” the PO years ago (which I contend is illegal, BTW.) The USPS hasn’t made a profit in at least 50 years (which was the excuse for privatizing it, in the first place.)

      IMO, the PO woes are not because employees are overpaid (because they’re not, really) but because USPS is wildly mismanaged from the top down, and is an horrific top-heavy bureaucracy full of dead wood.

      If it costs $1 to deliver a piece of mail, ya can’t charge $1, ‘cuz each PO building has lights and equipment, and each PO has a fleet of dispatch & delivery vehicles which have to be purchased, maintained, repaired, and periodically replaced. This was something I figured out when 1st Class postage went from 5¢ to 6¢ in 1966 — to break even. I asked my Dad: “Why didn’t they just raise it to 7¢?” His reply: “Because if they did, they wouldn’t be able to ask for 8¢ in two years…”

      ‘Point is, the USPS has been sorely mismanaged, for probably longer than “Bolshevik” has walked the planet. The USPS uses machinery to sort parcels. The machinery is set up to accept certain standardized sizes of boxes. Any non-standard parcel has to be hand-sorted and routed, which is both inconvenient, and costs money. Bezos cut a deal to have the PO deliver Amazon merch at a discount — in effect, subsidizing purchases. They gave him the deal, commensurate with Amazon requiring that its (North American-based) regular and Marketplace vendors use PO-compatible boxes. He accepted the deal on condition that the Post Office supply the boxes.

      A standard Priority Mail “2 pound pack” (box) costs $8.70 to purchase and mail, or did last year — unless the person mailing it sold you something through Amazon, then it costs $3.99. Who d’you suppose makes up the $4.71 the GAO says the PO has to have to ship that box? Wanna hear something even better? If’fn you ordered an item direct, from any PacRim company, they would ship it SAL (Surface, Air Lifted — ground mail, but airlifted between the sending and receiving country) or EMS (Expedited Mail Service — Essentially the same thing as our “Priority Mail, Registered.”) A 2-pound shipment, sent EMS via China Post from HK, GD, Beijing, Wuhan, or anyplace else in China is 46¢US (SAL is cheaper…) I’ve bought a lot of stuff shipped as EMS parcels through the years. Purchased through Amazon, it still costs you $3.99 for shipping. Who do you suppose gets to keep the $3.53 overage?

      I detest Bezos because of his politics and attitude, but I admire the crap outta him for inventing the modern money machine, and doing it in a way that nobody noticed…

      • “The USPS hasn’t made a profit in at least 50 years”

        “USPS is wildly mismanaged”

        Mismanaged for 50 years? That’s fraud. We are so low in the pecking order we can see the fraud but have no choice in the matter.

      • “Mismanaged for 50 years? That’s fraud.”

        Not necessarily. Think about the V.A. and how Trump “fixed it:” Sure, he brought in a few people who streamlined the bureaucracy as best they could, but what he did which was brilliant was make it so Vets could receive V.A. medical benefits from any provider — Essentially telling the bureaucracy: “If you won’t do your job, I’ll go around you. When you retire, quit, or the Administration can fire you, your job vacancy will not be filled…”

        Every government agency and bureau is its own bureaucracy. A bureaucracy’s primary function is self preservation. If one were threatened (which won’t happen because loss of an Agency would result in a loss of power for either Congress or da Prez) it would NOT become more-functional. It would become more bureaucratic, playing “pass the potato” and “hide the salami” until it became a vacuum, into which requests were made, but nothing escaped except lameassed excuses.

        By “spinning off” the USPS, the government did not make the Post Office bureaucracy more-efficient or responsive. It gave itself less oversight, yet because Congress maintains the Post Office’ purse strings, USPS has to come begging Congress for scraps, instead of running their spun-off corporation like a corporation, and showing a healthy P/L statement.

        The reason the USPS has given Amazon (and eBay, BTW) sweetheart deals is because they can. The government is not permitted to allow the Post Office to “fail.” Therefore, the PO is always going to get whatever it asks for from Congress, and the Congresscritters who b!tch are invariably actors in a kabuki theater that’s being put on specifically for the benefit of the ignorant voting public.

      • Ya’ll are forgetting that the Post Office has the only 100% prefunded retirement system of any quasi (or fficial) govt agency. Thus,. the PO is not ever going to be the unfunded pension liability.
        Adopting a traditional “pay-as-you-go” method would produce an average of $5.65 billion in additional cash flow per year through 2016.
        Unlike any other public or private entity, under a 2006 law, the U.S. Postal Service must pre-fund retiree health benefits. We must pay today for benefits that will not be paid out until some future date. Other federal agencies and most private sector companies use a “pay-as-you-go” system, by which the entity pays premiums as they are billed. Shifting to such a system would equate to an average of $5.65 billion in additional cash flow per year through 2016, and save the Postal Service an estimated $50 billion over the next ten years. With the announcement of our Action Plan in March, we began laying the foundation for change, requesting that Congress restructure this obligation.
        https://about.usps.com/who-we-are/financials/annual-reports/fy2010/ar2010_4_002.htm

      • “Vets could receive V.A. medical benefits from any provider —”

        OOWS…around here we have wonderful medical care from the VA.
        You pay for it but you can see a specialist even though you dont have insurance..

  5. George,
    I have more faith in American ingenuity than you. You are assuming that good old fashion American innovation is dead. Quite the contrary. It has fast forwarded about 10 years due to COVID19. Adoption of tech has become necessary to survive. Isn’t that the name of your blog? Urban Survival? The survival of the fittest urban minds have found ways to adapt in order for the masses to adopt. The velocity of change is in full force. And it’s happening here in the Bay Area at light speed for the benefit of the rest of America by 4th quarter. This alone will fuel our GDP, and overall economic strength far into the future.

    New industries are being formed with paradigm shifts in transportation and energy leading the way. This isn’t some climate change hocus pocus talk. That doesn’t exist…it’s just a better way. Combustion cars and coal fired electricity are the typewriter….it’s time for next gen job creation. Electric cars are just 100x better vehicles overall and energy storage and Alt energy are just more efficient, sustainable and much, much cheaper For the end user and to produce. The shift of consumer expenses from auto expenses and maintenance (electric cars are basically maintenance free) and energy frees up More money for lifestyle changes. Better homes, Better education, healthier choices, home fitness products, more travel etc. considering the average home energy bill per year is around $3,000 (gas and electric) and Car fuel and maintenance around $3500, That’s an (Average) extra $541 a month to enjoy on other things in life.

    Many white collar types, if not all of us are working from a home office. That will be the biggest paradigm shift that will become permanent in the future. We will all have large screen video conferencing available to us to mimic the in-office experience. I already do. That means no traffic jams, stress on time, sleep patterns, and parental nurturing. The biggest beneficiary of all this is a less stressful lifestyle, which has an associated affect on our own health.

    The average American pays $800 per year in out of pocket health care costs, $1,400 premium contribution, and $3,050 in state and Federal taxes to fund healthcare. What if we were to reduce that as well?

    Another thing COVID has taught us is to cherish our land as a productive food source. It was sheer luck that our SIP, which we knew here in California would last at least three months or more, would start at the beginning of planting season. Immediately, articles appeared in social media and newspapers to turn back yards into your own produce aisle. Community parks donated 20,000 sq ft of park land and turned it into community gardens for areas that had less personal land to cultivate. In May and June, most of that produce was harvestable…ready for another planting..Fast food sales plummeted…which is a good thing…That contributes to health…American spend on average, $1400 on fast food every year. The question is…how susceptible to health issues are we as a result of poor eating habits…Diabetes and obesity related health issues add exponential health care expenses.

    The bottom line is…it has never been more important to live near a jobs producing urban area. You don’t have to live in it anymore, just near enough to a part of the conversation and accessible for an in person meeting every once in a while.

    Tech companies and their stocks and the millions of employees that work for them here, are a big reason why the velocity of savings accounts has hit light speed. With companies like Tesla, Netflix, Apple, Google, Amazon leading the way, we have gone from the rich getting richer to the smart getting richer. The adoption of 5G will make Moore’s law look obsolete by comparison. Maybe we can call it Musks law Now.

    All of this change has resulted in an increase in the personal savings of the gainfully employed. It has also shifted the focus to spend those savings on housing. My business has never been more robust. I And others are up YOY. And home sales are back to 15 or more offers per home. Even commercial sales will not be that affected despite millions working from home. I am on a committee that has set the wheels in motion to re-purpose Commercial space into live-work-play spaces. We have a housing shortage due to the continued influx of engineers moving here, so conversion of office spaces to livable condos or communal living (for college graduate/PHD Students that need a transitional space before moving to a personal home) combined with play spaces and offices allows for employees to live work play all in one space…saving Commute time, money and increasing overall lifestyle.

    You have heard of pay it forward…I like to use the terms…”Think it Forward, then Move it Forward”

    From MAGA to MATA..Make America Think Again.

    • Mark you sound lost in your 1% fog, untouched by people experiencing layoffs (I know a few)

      double digit drops in rents in the Bay Area:
      https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Bay-Area-rents-plummeted-in-June-See-the-biggest-15383584.php

      That Prince of Silicon Valley, Zuckerberg, (and leader of the FAANG pack) enables America to Hate Again (a new financial product?, keeping those real estate prices high…)
      https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/06/inside-the-hate-factory-how-facebook-fuels-far-right-profit

      https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/31/extremists-neo-nazis-facebook-groups-social-media-islam

      The Bay Area’s loss of jobs..
      https://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf

      The Grapes of the Other Half’s Wrath..
      https://www.kqed.org/news/11785910/nearly-half-of-san-francisco-families-are-financially-insecure

      Oh, George thanks again for your ‘online socializing site’ (text-in all day radio?)

      (notice in the side bar to the article, joining a group, could I call yours ‘UrbSurvs’, cuts your mortality rate) http://bowlingalone.com/

    • Although I do not share Mark’s political views I do believe he offers a few astute insights for thought today.

      • Do and Think like Marx..and all will be ..Beautiful..as you motor in a Tesla..and work from home…eat vegies you grew yourself…and pay Fiat currency for over priced housing…with worthless dollars….that soon..no one will take…and California…becomes a ‘dust bowl Kansas’……not a future that I will be a part of……But that is what others want to do , so be it…BUT not me ..thank you very much….

        Sitt’in in the morn’in sun….. .sitt’in at the dock o the bay…..wast’in time….rest’in my bones

      • “Dust In The Wind.” by Kansas

        I close my eyes
        Only for a moment and the moment’s gone
        All my dreams
        Pass before my eyes with curiosity

        Dust in the wind
        All they are is dust in the wind

        Same old song
        Just a drop of water in an endless sea
        All we do
        Crumbles to the ground, though we refuse to see

        (Aa aa aa)
        Dust in the wind
        All we are is dust in the wind
        Oh, ho, ho

        Now don’t hang on
        Nothin’ last forever but the earth and sky
        It slips away
        And all your money won’t another minute buy

        Dust in the wind
        All we are is dust in the wind
        (All we are is dust in the wind)

        Dust in the wind
        (Everything is dust in the wind)
        Everything is dust in the wind
        (In the wind)

    • Sounds like a Democratic party paradise to me Mark, with Joe and Chuck and Nancy at the helm. I can hardly wait for all the Windmill farms to replace fossil fuel and nuclear (I assume you are against nuclear) power generating plants. It will be beautiful.

      I did see the backyard vegetable garden in Downtown Chop a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, it never had time to deliver the crop but I am sure it would have been bumper.

      When all the thugs in Chicago that shoot and kill their neighbours every weekend finally get their Engineering and PhD degrees with the money saved from defunding the police departments, it will be a joy to see them all living together in communal harmony.

    • Mark, what a marvelous bubble you live in. Truth is, tech and white collar jobs don’t keep the lights on and food in stores. That’s the job of blue collar workers, the real backbone of the world.

      • Scott,
        I never said blue collar jobs weren’t important…white, blue and gray collared workers equally as important. You don’t think I really had a silver spoon from birth did you?

        I paid for my own College education. I learned a trade in high school as a welder and was a boilermaker, building power plants all throughout the Midwest From the last day in school in May to the first day of college in August. I chose to work 6/10’s those summer months to enable me to pay for tuition, books, room and board, with a little left over for a date with my girlfriend at the time. While everyone else was Cruising the roads, having a good time in the summer, I was sweating my butt off hanging from an air buggy 300 feet up in the air, welding Pipe. I understand the blue collar life and while I respect what You guys do, it wasn’t a life that I wanted. And definitely not a life I wanted my kids to experience either.

        There was actually one point right before my senior year in college where I thought I could do Boiler maker work for a living, but when the General Foreman for Babcock and Wilcox got word of it, he took me aside and said “ I love your work ethic here, I really do, but I never want to see you here next summer. Promise me you will Get your education, finish at the top of your class and never look back. You will not be welcome back here again. Do you understand me?” It was the best advice I had ever received.

        My point is pure economics…it’s the white collared jobs that contribute most to our GDP. 80/20 rule.. the upper 20% are responsible for 80% of our GDP.

      • “You don’t think I really had a silver spoon from birth did you?”

        Unfortunately MARK.. i have to admit thats exactly the impression I had.. I thought Dad and mom and their influences got the ball rolling..

        Theres a show on television called undercover boss. It’s the offshoot of a show that lasted six weeks called 30 days. They took top executives and people of huge influence and they weren’t allowed to use any of their contacts or their money etc. And had to exist as a blue collar worker. Get a job rent and make it.. only one actually did it.. and he was shocked.
        The thing is.. each and every social class has their own challenges and trials. Where I am at I cannot look at someone living beneath a bridge or in a dumpster and know how to survive in that class of society.. those in the upper class doesnt have a clue what the blue collar class is experiencing. Many dont have a clue who’s working for them or their life experiences.
        Realistically I don’t know how your life is or your challenges. Then you don’t have a clue what mine are at the bottom.
        We see the view of life in our class.
        A woman from south Africa gave me an insightful view of her life in Africa and the classes below the one she lived in.. people just having them with machete just because..not allowed to learn..
        Then I got an insight9 view of life living in a dumpster..eating other peoples wasted food..
        I totally believe that the show naked and afraid is a study to see if mankind can survive in the event of a shtf scenario.. colony was another.. 10 random individual each with their own skills..

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y2vSmje7rhQ&list=PL0zBMXro7kRC6mF6hiYjLiMpEh17gysNs&index=2&t=0s

        Anyway it’s pretty obvious you don’t really have much experience with blue collar life or how to survive the upcoming weimer depression

      • I’ve been watching Kevin Costner’s “Yellowstone” for the past few weeks. There’s a real estate developer, or was, on there played by the great actor Danny Huston. Unfortunately they killed his character off just before he was able to get a glimmer of what it was he was destroying for profit. I’ve been putting Mr. Huston’s face on Mark’s mental mannequin I have in my mind since I started watching.

        The writers for that show have hit so many nails on the head when it comes to the divergence of philosophies in the World it’s astounding the PC enforcers haven’t killed it yet.

    • “You are assuming that good old fashion American innovation is dead.”

      No.. it isn’t dead Mark.. we have a lot of ingenuity in the USA.. the big issue is we ship it off to china to make for us..

      • Looking Out…

        Two things…First, I said ingenuity is not dead…it’s alive and well…and…As long as the ingenuity and intellectual capital is here in America, does it really matter where it’s made? Not really…

        Second …those jobs being shipped over is the decision of American companies. They are the ones deciding that profit is more important than process. Except Elon Musk…100% of Tesla products are made in the USA…except for the products he makes for China…which in Order to make it affordable for the Chinese, must be made in China by cheaper China labor. BMW and Toyota do the same here in America. Because of shipping and tariffs, it’s cheaper for Toyota to make their cars for America, here in America. This is where the global economy makes sense. Work share Is important to hedge inflation and for the welfare of a healthy world economy.

      • “Scott,
        I never said blue collar jobs weren’t important…white, blue and gray collared workers equally as important. ”

        “Looking Out…

        Two things…First, I said ingenuity is not dead…it’s alive and well…and…As long as the ingenuity and intellectual capital is here in America, does it really matter where it’s made? Not really…”

        Mark, how do you resolve your two statements:

        “white, blue and gray collared workers equally as important.”
        “does it really matter where it’s made? Not really…”

        If it’s not made here, that 80% is going to get wet, cold, hungry, and p!ssed.

        White Shirts are going to make their money regardless. This doesn’t mean they’re intelligent, ingenious, or flexible, or have any life skills whatsoever. It means they are competent in, and able to tightly focus on one narrow facet of whatever business they find themselves in, and network with other suits whose facets can accomplish that which their own, can not.

        Regardless, it is unconscionable that American manufacturers would not manufacture strategically necessary materiel, in the territories of the United States. I don’t care if they build stuff in China or Vietnam, as long as they manufacture here, as well, and can manufacture said product here, in its entirety, without retooling or retraining. Doing so keeps “the 80%” happy, and keeps other world players from gaining a grip on our military or sustenance gonads, is reasonable, rational, logical, and just simply makes good sense. It is also the moral thing to do, in that you don’t starve your own to feed those who feel an indifference or enmity toward you. In the end, such a policy benefits no one.

        Because collective management has lost its morals, is no reason to celebrate…

      • “does it really matter where it’s made? Not really…”

        I think it does matter.

        We have steel mills sitting idle.. their cities once proud look as if they’ve been through a war.
        By keeping industry here you keep the money in your own community. It’s all about the velocity of money.. send it to another country your only promoting their growth while yours goes stagnate.
        That’s why one in two laborers are on social programs to, benefits are only offered to the top leaving everyone else to founder.
        Theres no way to grow..no pride only struggles. Our infrastructure is crumbling our cities are run down..san fran has so many issues that it’s a joke.. we need our presidents vision..bring.pride back home.

      • Mark… that is the Chimerical that is almost always referred to.. People that could make the changes to stop all of it.. don’t because of the ME complex.. what about me.. screw the blue collar workers.. so all the wages and bonuses and benefits go to a very few..
        I don’t know about there.. my suspicions are it is the same after reading just how bad the conditions are in SanFran..
        but here.. they figure average income.. the bosses no longer look out for their employees benefits.. and pile all the wealth on a very few individuals.
        Then complain about people receiving social programs or how their insurance premiums are accelerating beyond belief..
        When my mother passed away.. the total amount that she had to pay out of pocket was two hundred a year.. the ceo of the company made sure when he sold out that everyone that had retired under his time as ceo was taken care of..
        Like DJT and his employee’s there was little to none changes in employees.. they stayed as loyal members of his family..
        very rarely do you see that today.. my old employer has an over ninety percent turnover .. I was a department head of a retail chain that promoted people to change positions..
        the rougher it is on the blue collar laborer the more they have to rely on social programs to exist..
        and as those numbers increase you will hear and read more about how we need to stop the socialism even though the ones that could stop it are promoting it.. where if they took just a little less of the pie and still gained they would still grow and everyone under them would be happy..
        we need to bring back manufacturing.. open the jobs and get things under control.. now.. I am at the belief that the executive branches of our companies are to late to make those changes.. It would have to be swift and a lot.. those at the top would have to take a cut in their inflated incomes.. which you and I know they would never go with that..
        the covid19 and seeing just how dependent everyone is on the spending of the blue collar should have been an eye opener.. Now as hyper inflation and the weimer depression from hell is about to come down on all of us.. millionaires with numbers on paper will only have that.. like the last one.. people had money in the bank and it folded.. numbers on a computer screen or a sheet of paper is just that.. numbers.. Bernie showed everyone just how that worked.. 65 billion.. and all he did is send out a sheet of paper and added a couple of digits to the sheet.. the federal reserve is doing the same thing.. along with all the other systems we have bought into..
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madoff_investment_scandal
        anyway it does make a difference.. bring the pride back..make it so that the people can work and feed their families and not have to depend on anything from the federal govt.. rebuild our once strong infrastructure..
        Its up to us.. yet we won’t.. our congress is influenced by the same things that our executives are.. and when the people have enough then we will see something similar to the overthrow of most other civilizations..

    • Mark, If you like electric vehciles, then you love rupturing the earth’s crust for metals/minerals mining …and the 12 year olds that go into the mines. So righteous. If you think EV’s are the future, buy copper, aluminum, nickel, graphite, lithium, cobalt, and manganese. Copper per vehicle: ICE – 48lb, Hybrid (HEV) – 88lb, Battery EV (BEV) – 183lb. The average EV has Lithium 20kg/EV, Graphite 75kg/EV, Nickel 30kg/EV, Cobalt 10kg/EV. Many many pounds of copper used in every commercial EV charging station and the wiring from power source to the station. Thanks for saving is from our ignorance.

      • No. “Serviceable” automobile wear items are steering, suspension, brakes, door hinges, window tracks, and the many, MANY computers and wires in a modern car. Automakers make more on EVs than they do cars.

        The stereotypical “petroleum company” is no more, and hasn’t been for 20 years. They are now all “energy companies” and are in the business of selling energy of whatever kind, sells. Of course they’re drilling & pumping, but they’re also making the plastics which go in vehicles, solar panels, and windmills. British Petroleum is the largest seller / supplier of solar panels in Ureope…

  6. I appreciate your optimism….but tech won’t save us. 5G is less secure to hacking, the end of privacy and has health effects and effects on the web of life that haven’t been subject to proper risk assessment. Fiber optics to home would be smarter than trying to tie every consumer gadget to an IoT grid. 5G is about crowd control and cutting costs from running more fiber. Facial recognition walking down the street..automated tickets for jaywalking and exclusion for the poorest members of society as things go cashless is not a future that favors stability or freedom. Inequality is widening now reversing all our previous gains from tech. A new paradigm is needed.

    • Setarcos,
      Your ignorance is plentiful. Enough to power a one Way rocket with you as the only passenger to Pluto. Bon Voyage!

      Where do you think coal comes from? Oil and the fracking we have resorted to that is causing mini earthquakes in west Texas and Oklahoma? Here’s the deal…we ravage our earth with coal and ruin the lungs of those that mine it, then we burn the coal and ravage the earths air. We get a two-for one.
      Oil…we ravage the earth and drain it of oil…when the wells run out, we switch to shale..an undeniably dirty process that takes millions of gallons of oil Fueled machinery to extract oil from a rock. There there’s fracking…hahahahah. We waste millions of gallons of waters that seeps into our drinking supplies to extract a fraction of that in oil..

      Then after all that extraction, we process it, which pollutes the air, transport it in pollution spewing semi’s and then you idiots put it in your cars and like a middle finger to the rest of the world blow it out of the ass end of your car. That’s a four for one deal. Woohoo.
      You have to be one of the most ignorant people on planet earth to think this is better. God save you.

      My electric mace may have a one time ravage of the earth, but after that? Nada. Clean as a whistle.

      • “we burn the coal and ravage the earths air.”

        I heat with coal.. I don’t have any issues with that or mining..as far as fracking thereon issues with that either. Where the issues lie is in the replacement of what’s missing.. NASA had that nm problem with the apollo 13 and their return. The earthquake issue arices with the shifting of the crust..easily solve but an expense that the oil industry is reluctant to do. I once had someone ask me what I would and I thought about it a while and gave my suggestions..to date as far as I know they aren’t doing any of them.. as for Coal it’s a great energy source and with a few minor changes it wont affect the atmosphere..as for them mining it..use the dam safety equipment..that’s what its for..
        I believe we should use all sources of energy available. But make graduated changes.. be the tree .a tree is the most efficient energy manufacturing unit around..you have the roots as the main source the limbs and the leaves all working as one.

      • “we ravage the earth and drain it of oil…when the wells run out, we switch to shale.”

        There again.. we can make oil out of our refuse..the talk of an oil shortage is false and only used to make a good excuse to charge more. During ww2 farmers produced the ed energy to plant by burning their corn cobs to produce the cengas needed to run the tractors. Up until jrs. Administration that was part of the rebuilding of society in a shtf scenario.. we actually built one a few years ago just to see it work.
        Oil can be reprocessed from our waste cheaply. If the people knew that they wouldn’t ever pay the inflated prices asked..that is also why hydrogen is discouraged. It’s all about control and the velocity of money.

      • “My electric mace may have a one time ravage of the earth, but after that?”

        The only issues I have with the batteries..is the idiots that push us to war..killing maiming and destroying other people’s homes and communities so they can rape the earth of a resource. Where if they hand any sense of ethics they would negotiate and support farmers to produce the materials they need from a natural resource. Then again rhubarb would be cheap. And theres only so much rhubarb that I can eat lol..
        Instead rape kill destroy and let the blue collar worker pay for their greed rather than negotiate and pay for the resources. That’s my personal opinion

  7. Driving over the saddle between our two big mountains the other day, I got a ‘new look’ at a sign I have ignored for years. Approaching the Pohakuloa (military) Training area is a large yellow road sign:
    Highfire
    Danger Area
    Followed by a red flagpole with red flag and flashing red light atop…. the kind the military uses to designate a ‘live fire’ range. Next sign on the road reads:
    Today’s Fire Danger
    “EXTREME”
    To report a fire, call…

    This is a very dry grassy area, and I had always assumed the signage was all about preventing fires in the area…. but I had a revelation this time. The word “Highfire” was purposefully run together in the first yellow sign to mean something entirely different… as in “Highfire” coming from the firing range that went ‘high’ and over the top of the berm. Where will it land?? Why… along the highway where the sign and red flag are!! The meaning is well disguised by the ‘fire danger’ sign immediately following, which DOES address grass fire conditions.

    Clever way of warning you that you might get shot, without causing undue panic.

  8. https://progameguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/fortnite-1920×1080-wallpaper-quad-launcher.jpg

    speaking about fireworks.. I got my but in a sling with the ole lady.. she comes out asks me what ya doin.. oh making a quad nerf missile launcher for the grandson for the fourth of july.. oh my god she came unglued..
    well after she had her discussion with me.. I fixed their swing set instead..
    she is right.. I remember when I taught them to melt stone with the sun..It was a bad mistake really bad mistake.. instead I showed them how to cool things with the sun.. you had to put ice in it or the beer would freeze LOL.. my solar beer chiller.. it was fun..

  9. …Feels good to be back in the saddle again — I had to make an unplanned trip up the left side of Michigan this week. ‘Twould have been idyllic if that mattress had been more-agreeable. Holland, Ludington, Manistee were veritable seas of flowers, temps were in the mid-90s and humidity in the mid-20s with lots of sun. Despite Frau Whitmer, I passed a number of busy beaches and tourist traps, with nary a mask in sight, yet a proper meal was nowhere to be had, anywhere above Interstate 90 (thank you, Indiana and Ohio!) Things I noticed: Ohio/Indiana/Illinois Corn was chest-high — and I’m not a small guy, and the onion fields in SW Lower Michigan were more-full with better-looking foliage than I can ever remember seeing. ‘Looks like we may make up for the suck growing season, last year…

    • “…Feels good to be back in the saddle again ”

      Lol lol lol.. dam it Ray.. the kids have m ed drinking Mike’s lemonade and it’s hot outside.. god wouldn’t I like to be back in the saddle again lol.. but menopause oh well have a great weekend. It’s really rare when I have one to many . I would rather have some cush.. but everyone use to say I to in depth. Lol

  10. THE CARS ? GOOD TIMES ROLL

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BDBzgHXf64

    Congressional Schedule Indicates Second Stimulus Checks Could Come As Early As August

    “But it’s got to be done properly,” Trump said. “I want the money getting to people to be larger so they can spend it. I want the money to get there quickly and in a noncomplicated fashion.”

    https://www.newsweek.com/congressional-schedule-indicates-second-stimulus-checks-could-come-early-august-1515415

    • Yup..pour a little water on the table…keep the noodle floating.. lol lol..
      That’s exactly what I would do.. then let the Democrats take charge of the ball in the game..
      Walk away clean with a record of actually doing something before the virus.. Democrats would be foundering. It’s one thing to watch the game and know how it should be played. Quite a bit different to be in the game with control of the ball..
      We all know what’s going go happen or at least have a good idea..
      I think they have kept nasty nancy quiet because they to know how it will play out.. and would rather let it fall under him then them..that way they can say..see we told you so..
      You did notice that not one whiner about trump came up with a vision of how the other party would have handled the country if they had won..I think that’s because they do realize life would be way different..
      I also think we would already be deep into WW3 to..
      DJT has done a phenomenal job considering where we were at..
      I also understand why he went option 2 and now option 3

      • In the real world clinton bailed the US out from the GHB recession, partly due to cheney cutting the military and the peace dividend. Obama bailed out US from the GWB recession. A democrat will bail out the US from the trump calamity.

        Don’t believe me, look at the numbers. If you invested $10,000 in the GWB market you’d have about $8,000 when obama took over. By the time obama left you’d have $20,000. Really by any metric Obama was left a house on fire by GWB and handed off a beautiful california contemporary to trump.

      • “A democrat will bail out the US from the trump calamity.”

        OG…even if the democrats shut down all military operations outside our borders..I honestly don’t think it can be done at this stage of the game .

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