Move over Keto Diets – here’s something more useful! Some real clarity this morning as I had another one of those amazing dreams of the sort described in my book Psychocartography: mapping the human dream.
This one was mind-boggling in its scope and implications and focused on non-numeric mathematics. It will be the “focus piece” on Peoplenomics for subscribers on Saturday.
In the meantime, the notion of the CTLDD (clear-thinkers low-data diet) which was also passed along from “the dream realms” was also very useful, so this morning, we will roll that one around because it comes amidst a hype-fest that we’ve been mentioning (at a background level) for several years.
I’ll show you what I mean:
The headline today being turned into a Trump-bash (like everything, seems like) is that not only has US Job Growth been overstated by 501,000 jobs, but should we get the logically-linked outcome (the R word – >recession), nearly 70% of folks would blame Donald Trump to some degree.
While the Bureau of Labor Statistics has always over-estimated jobs created by the CES (current employment statistics) Birth-Death Model, we were shocked by the “linguistic tell” in the phraseology of their press release which begins…
“In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing...”
Since you haven’t enjoyed being a journalist for a couple of decades (as I have) it’s rare as chicken molars to see the phrase “usual practice” in ANY press release.
When it happens, there are only two extremes of thought that “plug & play” into the “What’s their motivation?” card-slot. One plug-in is that “They must be doing pre-emptdive buttr covering so they don’t get fired….” The second, and we think more likely version, is “This is a ‘play’ called in from the sidelines to work America into a recession in advance of the election…” which ought to be traceable back to the Deep State operatives who are “still on the string of administrations past…”
So yes, the phrase that pays in co-opted agencies is what? “Accordance with usual practice…”
Fortunately, we can rule out paranoia, as our data-management skills keep us on the path of intellectual honesty. Here, for example, is another CES story where ‘accordance with usual practice’ shows up from 2005. The still-paranoid will observe this example doesn’t occur until page 3…
Same, by the way, holds true for a BLS 2014 press release where the linguistically meaningful phrase doesn’t occur until the 14th paragraph in over here. But let’s not speculate as to movtives of the GS-14 and above world of the Deep (unfireable) State, shall we?
From an analytics perspective, we have warned many times over the past 20-years (UrbanSurvival has been on the web since 1997 in case you missed it), what matters is that every spring the BLS has annual “confessionial” in it’s corrections to the CES Birth-Death Model – which is jobs estimated into and out of existence via adminsitration “we think so’s…”
What DOES matter is the correction has been HUGE and never made the front of the Drudge Report as it has today. Example, take a look at the 2.9-MILLION jobs backed out of the CES estimates in January:
Well, my, ain’t that curious? Why, when we had an annual adjustment of the “made up jobs” wasn’t a 2.9-million drop a Hugely Bigly in January when it was booked, but now all of a sudden outfits like MarketWatch find a lower rate-of-change annualized (about half the previous year’s rate) to be “NEWS?”
Well, now we put on the conspiracy of the Deep State/GS15+ tinfoil hats again. If this is “normal” procedure at Labor, was there a similar announcement last year ? Or  or  or….is something else in play here?
Turn on the search machine, let’s roll into some results, shall we?
When you start to go through the results, you begin to see that https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm is quite unique.
Or, is it? One way to tell might be hitting the web archive (https://archive.org) and seeing if this page has ever existed before…
Ah! Now we’re getting somewhere! The specific address of the page for the latest annual CES change first appeared in 2014 here.
The second appearance of the page was in 2015 and, sure enough, the meaningful phrase “accordance with usual practice” does occur in this one.
Was it “front page news” from 2014 to now? Well, not as I recall, but remember, I’m an addled old man.
There’s a Lesson in All This
Actually, a bunch of lessons:
- Don’t trust “estimates” because they are bigly/hugely misleading as being off 2.9 million earlier this year demonstrates.
- But also be skeptical of reportage of such “data” stories especially when they play into a changing left-side political narrative designed to keep Trump from a second term by sending America’s self-talk negative which will slow retail and thus spending and resulting in a slow-down prior to the election and that will increase whichever lefty’s chance of winning the WH.
The Low-Data Diet?
Follow the simplest numbers as a basis for your thinking. Forget old friar Occam/Ockham. When it comes to the US economy the truth is right there is plain sight if you care to run the one number that matters which is the total number of people employed. That number’s pretty robust.
From this, you can – using the US population estimate – come up with your own “Labor Participation Rate.” But now we need to use our new-found CTLDD (clear-thinking, low-data-diet) to see what some of the extensions of such direct thought can be.
For one, we KNOW the BLS data is simply “made up” (using complex three-card Monte statistics) for reasons we can see in the highlights below from the most recent Employment Situation Report tables;
The first highlight which is obviously bogus is statistical assertion that the US population was only up 188,000 over the last year. We know this is bogus because the New York Times reported in March “Border at ‘Breaking Point’ as More Than 76,000 Unauthorized Migrants Cross in a Month.”
Even if we assume that ICE and CBP get the upper hand, certain a 50% reduction from the peak (which pencils out to 456,000 additional people in the US population, and that’s before the outcome of screwing and resulting “babying” by existing residents” just doesn’t square with reality.
Now, to add to this illusion, this also means the second highly (the employment / population ratio can’t be right (since the population assumption is toast).
And all of this means we have no idea, except in most general terms, about the number of people working because in this 456,000 load of people, what portion of working under the table and so forth?
The CTLDD (clear-thinker’s low data diet) is simple as hell and anyone can follow it. Pick a few meaningful metrics that are simple and may be tested. Then, do the simple thinking yourself and you’ll have a much more realistic view of America than policy makers (and breakers) would have you but into.
TMI/TMD (Too Much Information/ Too Much Data)
Examples resulting from excess “news” channel capacity which has resulted in the MSM having to “make up shit” to hoax eyeballs into ad dollars for their corporate masters. Hey! This is stimple!
- Emily Ratajkowski sparks pregnancy rumors with cryptic ‘mom and dad’ Instagram post.
- Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson is the highest paid actor of 2019
- and Taylor Swift wants to re-record her old hits after ownership row…
Our point is simply that this is useless news UNLESS:
- (in story 1) You’re the father
- (in story 2) You’re the second highest-paid
- (or, in story 3) You’re a recording engineer who will master the re-recording gig…
Otherwise, wholly useless crap.
What DOES Matter?
Well, there are some things that matter, for sure:
- South Korea Scraps Intelligence Pact With Japan Amid Rising Trade Tensions. For those unaware, Asia has its own kind of racism. They just don’t monetize theirs like we do ours.
- Hotel cook arrested after allegedly planning mass shooting, but this gets to the Minority Report (movie) concept of the US having an evolving Department of Pre-Crime. Not saying its bad to have such, but there are constitutional issues which are humongous.
- Waffles for breakfast Mr. Persident? Trump wavers on universal background checks.
- Editors at Fortune have just noticed How the U.S. Is Building an Unprecedented Mountain of Debt.
- While “There is a story to be told in New Mexico,” official says of Jeffrey Epstein ranch, we doubt any witnesses will live to tell of it. Arkancides, don’tcha know.
- Taliban’s top spokesman insists Al Qaeda wasn’t behind 9/11 – and they join Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth and lots of others who didn’t buy the story. “Pull it” anyone?
- And speaking of AE9/11T “Building 7 Study to Be Released September 3: I Need Your Help to Spread It Far and Wide ” Lemme see here: Event happens in 2001 and FINALLY a pull it story 18-years later? If you’re not smelling something, see a doctor…
- Want to avoid an early death? Get moving, a study says… Sure, but move where? Oh…that kind of moving…
- Jackson Hole Watch (where the Fed’s hanging for their annual deal) Fed was divided on rate cut, wanted to avoid appearing on path for more cuts..
- Good riddance: Governor Jay Inslee drops out of 2020 presidential race.
- We won’t even start on the pending Indo-Pak war, but the tensions are like a huge incoming tide there…
Well, there’s the morning acerbic/acid, huh?
Off to breakfast and then writing-up the latest dream-recovered lesson on graphic, non-numeric mathematics for PN subscribers…
Watch your “news intake” and remember: key data measured against logic, and cut out the junk stories.
Write when you get rich,