The Crack-Pot Theory That May Work Out

(Palestine, TX)  Sure is nice to be back in the saddle at the ranch where being the sole crazy person in the room is a lot easier.

We found in the Big City that many of the people we ran into were actually crazier than us.  And that’s going a stretch.

But not to worry – it will all make sense, once you understand my Crack-Pot theory that may work out.

I like charts because they just make sense.  Like the old saying (“The heat of the meat is inversely proportional to the angle of the dangle” I think was the firehouse expression), the slope of the curve (angle of the dangle) suggests this roast is getting near it’s final cooking stage.

Basically, recall that there were multiple weak periods in the period spanning 1906 to 1921.  Not unlike the tech wreck followed by the housing wreck in modern times. 

The Crack-Pot Theory says that unless we skip the pending summer/Greece/Iran Kool-Aid rally, we will likely be in a position by this fall to where the Fed will bump rates a tiny bit to keep the economy from overheating.

They will be wrong, of course.  Everyone wants to snore through the fact that we are now in a shopkeeper economy bubble and it’s moving with irresistible force due to the Digital Diaspora.

That is, anyone with a smartphone in any third world crap hole can now do customer service in America.  And there went our jobs.

That is to say, both of the jobs left after manufacturing left.

As of last week, the Aggregate Index was hovering right over the 1927 level.  In fact (and Peoplenomics subscribers know this stuff) this week will be about like Thanksgiving week of 1927 which means the market should go up as it tends to around holidays.

We tee off this morning with the Dow futures up 100 but we should (says the Crack-Pot’s theory, have a couple of more weeks of back and forthing before this puppy slides up.  But due to historical (and possibly hysterical) noise, the moves should be sideways through the rest of July and into August before lighting up.

Part of This is Greece

And that’s OK.  As one Reuters headline put it – nodding to the idea of burn-out:  Europe gives tired cheer to Greek rescue deal.

I couldn’t agree more, and so that’s why I’ll be taking my first nap of the day in few minutes.

Markets are a lot like capsizing a ship.  A passenger screams from the port side “Oh my God!  Look at the pod of killer whales!:”

And everyone runs over to that side of the ship – and the market goes one way.

They someone over on the starboard side yells “Holy crap!  An underwater alien spacecraft is following us!”

So everyone climbs to the other side, and likewise, the markets reverse course.

The people on point are people like Jim Rogers, George Soros and whoever else has 38-cents more than our combined life incomes.   (What ever happen ed to Meredith Whitney, BTW?  Her predictions were pretty damn good…between her and Bill Gross a person can get a sense of the madness of crowds…)

Gross’ columns can be found on the Janus website over here and are worth your time.  Whitney hasn’t surfaced yet since Kenbelle…

Anyway, at some point, someone yells “The Lord of Hosts and 21 seraphim are hovering over the waves back over on the port side, and everyone including the people on point run over to that side and the ship  U.S.S. Economy capsizes.

It’s easier when all the lifeboats have already been used and there’s no life jackets left.  Used them in the “Oh my God, a housing collapse and too big to fail…” and what have you.

For now, we just cast nervous glances to either rail and wonder if everyone can play nicely while the final bubble comes along.

Poly Tricks

Scott Walker has stated the obvious.  Not that many care.  To me, too much like just another politicians who wants to lead from behind the power curve…Trump is the guy who is up front and screaming into the GOP lead. 

He’s also the only guy who might be able to out-spend she of whom we do not write.

Our friends up in Sheridan, WY have a warm spot for a Trump-Carson ticket…which might be a winner.

They are not the only ones thinking that-a-way.

Not Much

In  the way of real econ news this morning.  Minor bill auctions and such.

Tomorrow we get retail sales – which for the last year has really be the “How Auto Sales Have Kept the Country Solvent” report.

Some really good data, like industrial production comes Wednesday and then consumer prices Friday. 

Iran Deal in the Wings?

Mixed headlines here:  Some evidence that Iran purchased more equipment just last month that would press their arms program forward. 

Of course the Happy Talk Choir which is pushing the deal with Iran seems to have missed the chapter saying it’s OK to lie to infidels, which we is…

Nebraska Beats California Purchasing Power

And not just because we refueled there this weekend.

Actual reason is The Tax Foundation has a new report out showing which states get the most out of $100-bucks in the household kitty.

Go find your state and look at the purchasing power of $100 over here.

Texas is $103.41 while the kids in Washington get $96.90 worth, just to give you an idea.  While South Carolina returns an amazing $115 plus, California gives (look surprised here) $89 and change.

Sanctuary City Data

Is slowly coming out…almost like a Trump campaign strategy as the Washington Examiner report Revealed: 276 ‘sanctuary cities’ let 8,145 illegal offenders free in just 8 months, 17,000 total.

Aw, but what the heck…why not just make up laws on the basis of political correctness rather than data and federal border law?

Say, I don’t suppose anyone has mentioned that Sanctuary Cities are inherently discriminatory, have they?  Don’t mind old egalitarian George, though.

Gee, gosh, golly…what could go wrong?  I mean that hasn’t or isn’t…

Jade Helm Watch

Nothing to report yet…but lots of Texans are on the lookout…