The US Federal Reserve’s Open Market meeting begins tomorrow and honestly, there’s not much change in “the conventional wisdom” that they likely won’t raise rates this time.
The reason is computer modeling that suggests, based on recent work by former Fed-boss Ben Bernanke (et al), that Lower For Longer” (L4L) is the best course for rates now. Sure, the Fed might raise them, but that would do several things.
First, the stock market, as we explained to readers of Peoplenomics this weekend, has passed through some overhead resistance and may now (remember, this is only a possibility) head to new all-time highs over the summer. Which has a certain “Replaying of 1929” appeal to it as a wave count.
The problem, though, is what happens if the Fed trying to “let a little air out of the bubbly market” with a rate hike this week? They could couch it in sweeteners all day long, but with the foreshadowing events of a possible short-term recession on the horizon, how high can the market go? Foreshadowing events like? “U.S. heavy equipment makers feeling pain from tariffs, disputes: report.”
We’re mindful of 11-year cycles and by our count, we’re edging close to the theoretical limits. Market’s don’t go up forever. “Except this time…” is a fool’s answer.
We live in exceptional times. A while back on Peoplenomics I explained that history is now solidly twisted.
200-years ago, the only way to “own wealth” was to “go heavy.” Have paid-up, fee-simple land (and lots of it), a railroad, a steel company, and gold and silver which had widely acknowledged value. Things witrh heft, ‘k?
Yet, in just 200-years, we have crossed the Rubicon (in Cesar-like fashion circa 49 BC): Things with the highest values today weigh nothing!
Arguably, computer software, Bitcoins, and even stocks have all been virtualized and weigh NOTHING. Stocks? All on servers, not issued as paper. Virtual. No internet, no wealth, are you following?
This brings into sharp focus the generational divide that gnaws on America.
One group of people (young) have no problem with the Internet -based “all things of value” being virtual. The other side of the Fourth Turning is populated by older people who not only remember (and lived) in times where things of value have weight but also realize that the Internet has precisely zero permanence. Oh, yeah: all data storage fails over time, too.
Despite this, looks to us like ranks of the Crypto Believers is still growing, as evidenced by Bitcoin trying to again breach the $4,000 level.
In an Ironic way, cryptocurrencies are similar a New Religion. Except, instead of believing in an “Invisible God” who is incorruptible, they have substituted a series of “digital equivalents”, or so they Believe. And like God Itself, they Believe Bitcoin will prevail over all. Smote thee with hashcode?
A bit of a stretch, as we see it, but the Grand Historical Replay is more clear every day. Facebook and Twitter are, to our warped thinking, remain modern analogs to the Tower of Babel. Who’s to say “made-up values” haven’t been tried by past civilizations that in turn spelled their end?
We remain hopelessly patient that good things will come to those who (value) weight.
Meantime, eyeing the report that U.S. fintech to buy Worldpay as electronic payments business booms, leads us to wonder: “Will there will even be any physical banks left when time comes around again that we’ll need them?”
In the Shorts
For our Buying the White House file: O’Rourke raises eye-popping $6M in campaign’s first 24 hours. Fools and their weightless money are soon parted.
And this note to my son “George-the-Uber_driver” Ride-hail firm Lyft launches IPO road show in Uber’s shadow.
Monday Morning Murder Mysteries
We have two of ’em on the menu today, though one is “old hat.”
That one involves solving for the identity of “Jack the Ripper” using DNA evidence. Despite years of finger-pointing at adjacent-to-royalty personalities, it turns out that a local Polish barber of the era, one Aaron Kosminski has been linked by the small bit of surviving DNA evidence.
Our second murder mystery, has become considerably more cloudy.
It begins with a story posted on the Drudge Report today that links to a story in the Fayetteville Observer that in turn involves a “foreign national” who was arrested last week trying to gain access to Ft. Bragg. That story headlined as “Foreign national allegedly repeated requests to tour Bragg “special operations facility”
At first, it didn’t seem like a “big deal” story, except than I looked at the dateline information from the Observer site: The story was posted on the 14th and involves events of last Tuesday..
What set the “news sensors” ringing this curious quote. According to the Observer report, the suspect
“… also made comments several times about needing to know the time and said “at (noon), we will be happy, at (noon) the weather will change,” as he looked around in different directions.…”
This was Tuesday March 12, but that would already be the 13th in New Zealand.
The mosque killings happened two days later around 1:30 PM on March 15 (New Zealand Daylight time). NZ runs 17-hours ahead of New York. It’s already tomorrow there because of the International Date Line.
As we reread the Observer story, the detention occurred here on Tuesday morning, was happening as it was already Wednesday in Christchurch.
Which begs the question: What are the odds that a foreign national with reportedly expired documentation, be trying to get onto a US forces installation to “see if it was worth his time” just before the mosque killings?
As horrific as the events in Christchurch were, we have to wonder what the global uproar would have been like, if an attack on a “heart of America” facility had been staged at very-nearly the same time?
Is there some unspeakably dark force trying to light up a global religious war? Trust you saw “Shooting on Dutch tram raises fears of terrorism, amid multiple injuries”? Or, is it somehow about disarming New Zealand.
Changes to New Zealand guns laws are on a high-speed trajectory and being applauded by anti-gun believers. See today’s Washington Post report “Why New Zealand can do what the U.S. hasn’t been able to: Change gun laws in the face of tragedy.”
One murder mystery seems solved as another one grows in complexity.
Space Force Cloaking?
Begin with “Air Controller Wowed By Pilot’s Ability To See Mystery Object Over Las Vegas With Night Vision (Updated)” over on TheWarZone site. Over here, you can find the audio track.
What was “it”? Lots of options and plenty of speculation: Something the .mil is testing? Cloaking device, perhaps? But might it have been something extra-dimensional that just happened to be hanging out? No way of knowing, but these are the kind of stories that get our attention, for sure.
Two Woo-Woo Notes
I happened to be looking for a can opener in the kitchen Sunday. As I opened the “drawer of kitchen tools” there was something odd: A can of Campbell’s Cream of Mushroom soup.
“Your idea of a joke?” I inquired of Elaine.
She disavowed all knowledge…but here’s the weird part: It’s on the other side of a cabinet from where the mushroom soup normally lives. It was almost like it had fallen through the wall.
As long-time readers know, we have collected dozens of such reports over the years. Someone will drop their keys on the floor upstairs and find them downstairs roughly under where they dropped. Something like that here?
Second woo-point: Pay attention to your dreams (and earthquakes) over the next week, or so. We’re very close to the Spring (Vernal) Equinox Wednesday March 20. We are already experiencing upticks in dream intensity.
For example? One I had last night involved a public exhibition hall being cleared by federal agents due to fears of an explosion. The events took place as one exhibition (like a trade show) involving something related to banking equipment was ended and the set-up for a fashion trader/buyers show was setting up. Damn odd stuff..especially when I was watching through the eyes of someone who was using a computer model to track timing and impact of events. Whew!
Just saying we’re in an interesting window. The 2011 Honshu quake off Japan hit March 11…so now to a week or two after the equinox is a good time to keep your “spiritual guard up.”
Off to seek normalcy…moron the ‘morrow…