This ain’t our usual serving of high-brow economics this morning. Naw…this epistle is dirt simple.
When taxes go down, markets go up. The rational is simple: People will have more to spend, corporations will pay lower taxes, and there will be cries of joy and spending in the streets. The roar of the clicks, the churning of debt. And we will all be saved by the rising inflation that floats all banks.
Until, of course, people figure out all the tax-talk is bullshite and there’s a flip side to such manic behavior that’s beyond the ken or ordinary mortals. And far past being treatable with lithium carbonate…
Like a bad hangover today, we notice the close proximity of two facts.
The first is that it looks like the republican/RINO tax-fraud (they call ’em ‘breaks’ because it will move you closer to broke in the longer-term) is headed for the rocks.
As the “tax break” turns into another republican lie, we see how the “Senate Republican tax plan may eliminate property tax deductions and delay corporate cut.”
Which may kill the charade completely as Mulvaney: WH won’t sign onto a bill that raises middle-class taxes/
Along with some of the little gotcha’s the Fools on the Hill are pimping. Like the New Poll Shows Voters Overwhelmingly Reject New Tax Hike on Plane Tickets. Duh… we want free lunches, dammit!
Of course, you’re not supposed to notice the correlation, because there will always be market stories like Stock futures lower after Wall Street’s record run to hide the bitter truth.
An hour before the open, Dow futures were down more than 100 points and Ure’s faith in his projected moving averages is about to avenge the deaths of weaker bears… I’m also organizing a memorial for the families of the “buy the dips” crowd, if you’re interested.
The data, however, is unequivocal: Stocks like a good story – no, LOVE a good story – and the facts be damned. We see examples of this behind most shares traded, and the FANG stocks are not immune. So let’s zoom-in on the economics behind one of today’s tulips – one that makes electric cars..
“Electric cars will save the world! Our stock is going to the Moon!” cries a promoter. Who we note, then makes plans to follow.
But as someone who’s been around electric cars, in fact since the HEV Challenge days (pre-2000), I’m sadly all too aware of the problems that electric cars pose. Most people aren’t, so let me huff the whiteboard marker here and lay it out…
The first problem is with battery chemistry: There’s an ugly number called the “acceptance rate of finishing charge.” It says, in so many words, that the final 15% of charging an all-electric will take about 2-hours. In most chemistries, when comes to capacity, if you don’t use it, you lose it.
The other limitation is on initial charging where the limit is charger capacity.
All of which works, but only provided you have time, a big charging source, and all goes well. By well, I mean the charging is temperature-compensated, since the faster you jam electrons back into a battery, the more heat you get.
But now, you see, up goes the price of the control electronics. And as the battery chemistry becomes more advanced so do the charge control requirements.
The main myth of electrics is how they will somehow give the world a “free lunch” we all socially (just us) deserve.
Ain’t there, bubba.
The facts are that by transferring out of petrochemical-based travel, we load down the grid. And now, with “climate change” there are only so many rivers that can be dammed and only so much power coming from nuke plants. Not to mention that with the Obama damnation of the coal industry, cleaner-burning coal plants disappeared from the energy mix plans….
I know this all sounds sour, but bear with me because the “average person” hasn’t figured it out – yet.
Let’s suppose that the average electric needs about 50 continuous horsepower for operation. Sure, it will vary.
One horsepower is 745 watts, but the way energy efficiency works (through the charger and discounting for electrochemical inefficiency) our morning calculation suggests ABOUT one kilowatt-hour of grid power for each horsepower, or in this case let’s call it 50-kilowatt hours of energy for each hour of EV driving.
Sure, that sounds high. But it’s not. Turn on the air conditioning, crank the tunes, turn on headlights, heated seats…wipers? Oh, that estimate sure looks more realistic, doesn’t it? Worse: That’s when the e-car is sitting at a long light. Now do it in winter with high heat….
The next jolly is to pencil in energy costs and you’ll find,,, let’s call it 18-cents per kilowatt-hour for power. The math? One hour of electric vehicle might cost $9 per hour of grid power.
Cheaper power? (You planning to build more nuke plants to power e-cars, BTW? What, do you hate mom, apple pie, and the environment? What kind of turd are you?) Let’s say you find 9-cent per KWhr of grid.
Fine. Now your energy cost is down to just $4.50 – or about 2-gallons of gas per hour equivalent cost. Ure a freaking genius if you can sell this. But there it is…
Now toss into that a cap(italization) cost three times what a small petro-powered car costs, and then add in millions in tax breaks to get us even MORE dependent on the still EMP-exposed grid…and Ure’s truly can’t figure a happy ending for the fairytale.
Especially when us Great Unwashed are put on the hook to subsidize this madness via tax reductions for the “special” folks. Which is why the EV tax breaks may go down the (crowded) road.
But enough of logic. There’s no place in today’s world for hard-headed, equal-costed, economic comparisons. The Herd is the Word or be the Turd and get the Slurred. Yep, social lynch mobs run things now. Into the ground, as mobs always do…
For now, the tax breaks are in a heap of doo-doo and as their future dims, like the all-electric car wet dream and communal ownership of self-driving fleets, we will keep our eye on the excesses of markets and wait for the financial hangover of such delusion to come.
Could be a while, though, since the blow-off in Tulipmania lasted half a dozen years. And the Crypto-currency farce? Despite stories about people missing thousands from hardware problems, the herd keeps crowding into that slaughterhouse, too.
It’s graceful in a way. A kind of trans-cultural Divine Madness.
Except when it ends, of course. And by then, only cash-hoarding few will be able to buy when the blood is running in the streets.
In the meantime, want to buy the electric car franchise for Jupiter? Make you a hell of a deal on it…
Note to Peoplenomics Subscribers
In a recent report, where we were discussing the “scrubbing” of persons and how we looked for the film “All the Money in the World” not to be released, we see another prediction coming to pass.
The film will be reshot without Kevin Spacey in it. But, more to the points, as long as it’s going in for reshoot and re-edit, we look for aspects of the “quiet muscle” division of the Italian mob (the Ndrangheta) to be scrubbed as well.
This as The Network and their ‘muscle division’ continue to purge Hollywood of reality leaks.
So, if you’re keeping track, that’s one RFO Peoplenomics call. Now, let’s wait and see how the paradigm-busting/fairytale wrecking Weinstein produced series Waco is scuttled as the illusion-keepers continue their house-cleaning. You’ve been following, we hope, how Harvey’s being dropped as an EP.
I assume everyone reading this site has seen the reports of the government’s use of tracer rounds at Waco which likely caused the fire? All hushed, of course…gotta keep that illusion going.
Boeing signs deal to sell 300 planes worth $37 billion to China. We don’t expect that will bolster too much at the company’s Everett/Paine Field plant. Seems Boeing and other manufacturers are moving lots of assembly and sub work to Asia.
Passing: Of Another Bond Girl
Karin Dor who starred in “You only Live Twice” has left us. Age 79.
Not that she was a super-star. But, it’s another grim reminder how much has been lost to history.
Once upon a time, kiddies, men had testosterone coursing through their veins. It was OK, too…even saved the Empire a few times. Women were allowed to be “hot” (they had a choice, now choice off the table thanks to social mobs). And it wasn’t threatening to ask a woman out twice. It was the dance of life.
For the world of daring-do men, capable attractive women, and obvious arch-villains, we have moved on, arriving on a planet where we scorn vive la difference and pay doctors to hack factory-installed plumbing. YABM (yet another business model).
On this rock, rhe obvious arch-villains now run think-tanks and D.C. lobbying firms, safe from official sanction.
In retrospect, the Bond films were a warning. SMERSH has indeed put something in our water supplies. And it’s taking us down in a most novel way.