Sputtering into ’24 – The Year Around Here

by

Not sure where to begin – since this is the last column on UrbanSurvival for this year.  Given nothing extremely out of the ordinary goes down in the next couple of days, that is.

Come Sunday, our ShopTalk Sunday column will appear on one of those “side project sites” that I tinker with now and again. Ultra-Make.com. That’s for a whole number of reasons (not the least of which is I love making things) and so do a lot of UrbanSurvival readers.  So, when ShopTalk Sunday appears here this week, it will only be as a pointer to “over there.”

It won’t just be 3D printing and CNC, either.  Lots of woodworking and green woodworking to write about plus Tool Slut Central needs to be added.  So we can measure “who’s got the fullest tool chest” – it’s a guy thing, I ‘spose. Ham radio articles will be over there as well, since Urban is a very topical site while I do write a lot of what editors call evergreen content.

Anyway, a very long article on the web-organizational nightmare of my writing too much will be there along with detailed look ahead plans.

On UrbanSurvival? Economics

The “Big Picture” is little changed going into the final trading day of the year.

The market’s recent run has been a real smoker, though by the close today, we might see people offloading a few of their dogs to claim tax losses and lower the pain of short and long-term gains. An article here discusses this angle.

A couple of views and metrics, not the least of which is how our Meta Index did for the year.

The last day of 2022 closed at 32,045.97 while this morning’s pre-open pricing looked like about the same as the Thursday close. Call it 41,389.68 at the close Thursday.

Now let’s take a very deep breath and ask an early morning, in the heart of sobriety, question:

Is your life 29 percent better than a year ago?

I sure hope so. And if it is, good on you.  But no one I know – people with PhDs and young up and comers – not one of them is 30 percent better off and only a few are 4- percent better off.

Markets are on crack, fentanyl and side snorts of lines, as far as we can tell.

In our work, it looks like the market is setting up for a double top versus the 2021 high of November 8th and from there January could be a serious bummer. If you don’t count the effective of inflation which robs us all.

Three charts explain this view, though it you were really into this kind of thing, the $40-bucks a year to see this and up to a dozen other charts on the Peoplenomics side of the paywall would be more than worth the effort.  These are judge to nudge you along in that direction.

So, first is the Elliott Wave and trend channel view from the all-time highs.  We are very close to hitting the double top. Compare the right side and the left in this view to see how the double top shapes up:

As you can see, the market moves semi-predictably in waves and in this regard, we think that it has something to do with how the human brain transitions information from STM to LTM.  In other words the short-term memory and long-term memory.

We can see this in graphical form if we take two different time-base moving averages.  We like the 2-day moving average and the 13-day because it’s close enough to real-time to appeal to price-snipers and day traders (moi, guilty as charged) but it’s also useful because most people can still remember yesterday and what they had for dinner last night.

The 13-day moving average is a little different animal.  Think about this closely because it illustrates the transitioning to LTM.  What did you have for dinner 13 MARKET trading days ago?  I didn’t even have to look and count that was Tuesday, December 12th for the start of the averaging period.  No effing clue what we had for dinner!  And because I flit in an out of markets all the time, no idea whether I was long or short, either.

But the upward trend we have been in since October 31st is just clear as hell when we put both the 2-day and the 13-day on a chart to figure out where the trend is and so that the “trend be our friend” works out in you-know-who’s favor:

Also (in fact, almost deliciously) the trends also tend to follow the same Elliott wave patterns (which we recently showed subscribers).  And since the distance between the 2 and the 13 is constantly changing, but has limits, this turns easily enough into a longer-term trending picture that looks like this:

As you can see, this is a zero-axis crossing deal.  I’m working on another hare-brained idea for a modified offset moving average system which (I expect) may give additional lead time on trading direction.  We’ll save the discussion of that for the paying folks behind home plate (Peoplenomics).

In these views, we have a pretty good idea of where the Future will be going, but it can always flip on a dime.  Losing a Navy capital ship, for example in the Med or the Red would sure as hell bleed out American confidence, particularly with Chinese and other forces martialing in the region. 2024 could be a 24-karat bitch.

Most people don’t see it yet because denial is running strong and the liberal bias is stronger than ever in the American socialist-infiltrated media.  As one of our overnight Comments noticed, Fox reported less than 4 percent of reporter and editors were republicans, anymore.  While we can all figure out how the bias is running in America.

And it bleeds into politics.  Why Nikki Haley is even addressing slavery and the Civil War is beyond me; more drive-by media sniping from the get-go.  Yet here she is Civil War Gaffe Undercuts Nikki Haley’s 2024 Pitch – WSJ.

Even more worrisome is Slow/Sloppy Joe is taking the bows for greed and a stock bubble. Biden Approval Index History. 48 percent approval is a number we take against the backdrop of falling SAT Scores. (“…According to Collegeboard.org, SAT scores dropped from 1050 in 2022 to 1028 in 2023….)  We’re somehow not surprised.

The Biden Invasion Unchecked

Texas son Michael Berry (WOAI San Antonio) is sitting in this week for Clay Travis and Buck Sexton on what was once the Rush Limbaugh show on radio. Made the point that blue state big city mayors are a bunch of whiners over the mere handful of illegals showing up in their political virtue signaling but can’t walk the talk liberal enclaves adding to existing urban decay. Or, words to that effect.

Yet here it goes again today: ‘We are not equipped to deal with this’: Migrant surge overwhelms U.S. border | The Spokesman-Review.  And They live near San Diego. Migrants pass through their backyards almost nightly | CNN while Sloppy Joe stumbles on: US, Mexico discuss immigration deal as huge migrant caravan advances | Semafor.

2023 has taught us a lot about the discontinuity of liberal thought.  On the one hand, they seem to have an affinity for Palestinians and giving creds to the maintenance of a two-state solution.  Yet, Slow has a 48-percent approval rating while giving financial aid to Palestine. Which where the gas deposits offshore from Gaza will shortly be in Israeli hands.  And where wider war may spring from (as early as this long weekend) as Iran is fighting the clock as more military assets to oppose it land in the region.

It doesn’t end well, and maybe not in ’24. But a bet on escalation of border issues worldwide – and I don’t care if you’re talking Ukraine, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Gaza, Mexico or Venezuelan-Guyana, it’s statistically likely that one of them is going to blow.  Don’t take your eyes of North Korea or Taiwan, either.  We’re just over 2-weeks from elections in Taiwan and that is critical to America’s future independence. They vote January 13th.

We could fill in headlines around all this stuff, but I’m taking the rest of the year off.  Enjoy sifting through:

Peace is running into a global supply chain problem.

Around the Ranch in 2024

A lot to cover here, so I grabbed the outliner:

  • Blood pressure and health
  • BP 116/67 pr 59
  • Elaine memory issues, seemed to improve with diet tuning and CPAP
    • Axe almost all carbohydrates and sugar
    • Supplements that work well include for us Adam and Eve
    • Adaptogenic additives include astragulus, schizandra,
    • Trace elements
  • Best breakfast discovery: Tai Pei pot stickers and custom sauce consisting of fresh ginger juice, Japanese Mirin cooking wine, and low sodium Kikkoman.

Thank you to LOOB for the dandy T-shirts, permanent matches, and small emergency lights.  The Tee shirts explain how everyone you meet is fighting a battle you know nothing about. So true!

Retirement day for long-time reader Don Bondi – 40-years before the bonds. We’d recommend a stiff drink in the comfort of home (no driving and…) and then how about writing a 10-page “layman’s intro to bonds” which we can share freely around here?

Projects ahead in 2024 – tuning up my other web and writing work will be on ShopTalk Sunday (on Ultra-Make).

Why, here it is, just time to eat and get to work on today’s projects which include:

Junk run to dump
load up diesel for greenhouse
30 2x4s stud length for generator shed and big greenhouse mods for swamp cooler install
10 2x2s for garden and the bird netting over the tomatoes.
6 2x12s for the east side deck
Design the 3D models for the sprouting tray cover
Design 3D bird net holders to go atop 2×2 stakes in the raised bed
Fuel greenhouse heater
Elaine on prepping guest BR for the A./C wiring for lean-to greenhouse
Frames for paint by number murals (Remind readers if they get paint by numbers to buy the frames with ’em if you don’t have a shop and spare time)

Mention existing ShopTalk archives are here.

Oh, yeah:  Keep wearing the speed crown and light crown which make all this energy flow as it does.

Write when you get rich, bored, or just want to share with folks, and a Happy ’24 from us to you and Ure’s…

George@Ure.net

45 thoughts on “Sputtering into ’24 – The Year Around Here”

  1. “ It doesn’t end well, and maybe not in ’24.” … or maybe it does?

    Guy here has been disecting the movie, “Leave The World Behind” … He’s got some hunches and it’s something you and your HamRadio folks might wanna check out …

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/C1brwJur-8U/?igsh=N3R6d3F1Yzkxa2pq

    It ain’t the Simpsons but, may be predictive, or maybe not.

    And could be (maybe) why we won’t have an election in 2024 … maybe.

    But, for those who might find this interesting, there ya go.

    If ya come up with anything, let me know. lol.

    • Of the frequencies either shown or referred to; 7.076, 6.999310, 6.92 , 6.91, or 6.917850, none have any particular appearance of noteworthiness. The 6.9somethings are in a zone where Pirate Radio and the U S Air Force play — but nothing special.

      7076 is a popular “ST-8” computer-to-computer ham radio spot. Again, pretty routine stuff.

      Many “spots” will become “active” when and if the big balloon goes up. Mostly, they are currently under-utilized or mostly quiet.

      13.927 Upper sideband (MARS) provide some interesting listening — but much patience is required.
      They run the occasional phone patch with cargo planes and mid-air re-fuellers, and they sometimes make a slip and say something they really shouldn’t. I heard Air Force One make a routine short radio check while Joe was flying to the Carribean yesterday. They were quite weak and brief. Nothing exciting. (I didn’t know AF1 even ever used MARS!)

      11.175 and 8.992 are also Air Force enroute service stations (but are not “ATC”.). Mastered from WASHDC via remotes, globally. Incidental stuff — mostly uninteresting until it gets interesting for some reason.

      All GovDome stuff is uppersideband voice for the most part — and the digital stuff is highly encrypted and don’t even bother.

      When (if) The Big Balloon Goes Up anywhere in the ham bands will become interesting. Tune through 3.8 to 4.0 and 7.2 to 7.3 in the evenings. (both lower sideband voice) Observe and tune in advance for some baseline ear-familiarity so you’ll know what ‘normal’ sounds like.

      Our own “Urban” frequencies are 3.999 by night, and 7.299 by day. (Both ‘lower’) But we won’t be on till Balloon Time, I reckon.

      There are hundreds if not thousands of “nets” where groups meet at various times for variious purposes.
      3.933 and 3.947 are good insomniac frequencies in the wee small hours..

      Poke aroud at ARRL.ORG and search for “NETS” to sip from the firehose.
      http://www.arrl.org/arrl-net-directory-search

      Ham radio will probably be your BEST source of intel at Balloon Time. “Software Defined Radio” dongles are avalable on The Zon for 30 bucks. It’s manageable by anyone with normal intelligence–don’t be intimidated: it’s very do-able for dirt cheap.

      https://www.amazon.com/NooElec-NESDR-Smart-Bundle-R820T2-Based/dp/B01GDN1T4S/ref=sr_1_3?crid=38F1ZW0QQLDRM&keywords=sdr+radio+receiver&qid=1703884843&sprefix=SDR%2Caps%2C549&sr=8-3

      It’s a deep subject — read up a bit before you spend the rent money. Start at ARRL.

      – 73 –
      KW1B

      • Might also mention Ure drops by the Texas 80 meter early 3806 group around 5-6 am Central – it’s on LSB by the way. The FedGov loves their USB, but practice people aren’t put off by either.
        Another on is the maritime mobile net on 14.300 upper sideband. If you want to pick up the south pacific and caribbean weather now and then fine, but it’s a good benchmark to see where the 20-meter band is open when you’re tuning around.
        As WoRR will attest, a lot of us got started when single sideband “couldn’t get no respect.” And so there are a fair number of AM (ancient modulation) nets about. A while spent on https://www.amwindow.org/nets/netfreq.htm will find a lot more of the AM radios, and if you want to find slower speed Morse to try your ears on, the hangouts are 7.050 and 14.050.
        On the 20-meter band, FT-8 and PSK are all over from 14.070 and up to 14.080 depending on conditions.
        The bottom 25 khz of many bands is where the “grown ups” (with the highest grade (*extra class) licenses hang out, as well.
        With a simple shortwave receiver you can have a lot of fun too – cruise over to https://swling.com/

        Thanks to WoRR for reminders and reminding those of use who can’t remember as much any more. CRS disease comes for us all… Well done, Wm.

  2. Thanks for the year end summary George.

    I have two predictions for 2024.

    1. The SHTF will occur before, during or shortly after the November 2024 election.

    2. It will not happen on an exact date predicted by Bo Polny or any other “exact date” prognosticator.

    The best article I have read on 2024 is from Victor Davis Hanson. “The Year of our Reckoning.” Extremely well written and well worth a read.

    https://victorhanson.com/2024-the-year-of-our-reckoning/

    • Old Bic,

      There are a lot ‘o smart folks here. Me? I’ll be surprised if excrement isn’t all over the government ledgers by January. If one wants a “look back” _that_ was the fundamental broken straw, well, we can plug in fiscal cliff in advance.

      George:

      More on bonds is wanted / welcome. The subscriber side is already well worth the price of admission. Throw in some info on the Senior Estate? All the better.

      You pointed out the other day we are only approaching nominal highs. Most don’t even look back past 52 week hi SPX 4,793 (where prior actual hi was 4,818 I believe).

      This spike will resolve like all the ones before it.
      So sez me anyway (at YE23),
      BR, Egor

      • No way Comrade ! All time new highs – we be going CRACK UP soonly as Capitalism sans Gold&Silver, doomed to crack up and die. End game for fiat, and all the other made up bullscheisse judeochristian society(western) be based on, LIES.

        ..Kondritief got his asz frozen in Siberia for telling Stalin the truths, when this would happen, “long after communism collapses” joseph no wanna hear that scheisse, sent him to gulag for doing research requested.

        Its that Time…just ask “Kondri’

    • Hi, Book, ‘Fourth Turning’ decribes possibility of a new civil war next couple years. Immigration puts it off. More destruction from war then immigrants. Europe immigration same as USA…Russian Chinese siberian same… low income to high income. Low income does work no USA person would.

      • replacements no put off anything. they are the spear point of coming chaos – most no gonna like outcomes as most not prepared to Fight back, let alone defend their Homes & Neighborhoods.

        Zombie America is ripe for the picking – and the “picking crew”/sharecroppers” be in place already to start the harvest!

        You/We are the “Grain” – illegals be the big green Harvesters.

    • I hope and pray that there isn’t an epochal event in the near future.. I don’t think it really matters who is our new president .. the damage that has been done by this one administration has in my opinion pushed us to far..we are looking at what now.. Eight fronts of a potential war so much damage by handing out money right and left.. then the open borders to millions of illegals..if one in a thousand of the illegals is a warrior.. then there is an army between fifteen and twenty thousand if there is more than that.. then the number runs up. the estimates that I have read were between a hundred and two hundred thousand potential . even if there isn’t .. the millions of refugees that we have ushered into our country and being subsidized by our present administration .. puts a real burden on the average american worker.. and no taxes taken in are big enough..
      then the idiotic drive to break the energy industry.. where we should be working on is on our country our people.. not all over the world.
      IN Bidens defense though.. he doesn’t have a clue.. he has never had to balance a checkbook. has lived his whole life at the feed troughs of DC where the real world issues don’t exist.. for those in his social class.. he has proven that he and his family is above the laws and has those in high positions working diligently to cover over and destroy evidence.. right now it is just a horse and pony show.. nothing will come of any of it..
      sad but true.. all that is needed now is one national threat.. to put COG in play and the elections stopped.. so will we have an election.. doesn’t make a difference right now..

      • oil production is at an all time high. the US is producing more oil daily than any other country ever. border apprehensions are at an all time high. the stock market is at an all time high. unemployment is at a 20 year low, lots of jobs to be had. and you’re complaining. i wish i had a time machine to send you back to march of 2020.

  3. Happy New Year. Looking forward to another great year.
    Last thought of the year. Don’t ever, ever trust your stored files to a single off site back up service…. ever. Don’t ask.

    Stay safe. 73

  5. “Axe almost all carbohydrates and sugar”

    Sugar. Soon as you put it your mouth it rots your teeth. Knowing that, how can it not be doing more damage once you swallow it? But people do it. Why?

    I had a friend who had some personal problems and his choice of “comfort food” was a box of Twinkies. He ended up getting diabetes. As is common with diabetics, he got a tow infection and went in the hospital for surgery. Something went wrong and he died on the operating table.

  7. ARRL Straight Key Night 2024
    12/24/2023
    ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio® Straight Key Night (SKN) is held on January 1, 2024, from 0000 UTC through 2359 UTC. Many hams look forward to SKN as one of the highlights of their operating year.
    Operators participate using Morse code (CW). All you need is your favorite straight key or bug. Many participants dust off vintage radios and keys and put them back into service each year just for this event.

    Stew Perry 160m Contest tomorrow
    https://www.kkn.net/stew/stew_rules.html

    ARL SIXTY ONE

    • Few nights ago, I had a dream about Poland and mentioned it here. In the dream I spoke the language, which I cannot in my wakened hours. I had asked where I was and someone said, “Poland”

      When I was awake, I did a search of Poland news … they were busy with US and Ukraine … defense systems.

  9. ” US, Mexico discuss immigration deal ”

    The immigration has been going on all of our lives. It’s a feature.

    The Indians (dot) are a new feature. They are generally educated and have $. They go for the software and positions of power within Western .gov.

  10. I would have come up with 10 reasons to delay starting those holiday projects you are going to knock out in a day, and spaced ’em out over six months.

    Signature Solar has some brand new 400 watt two-sided solar panels on sale as cheap as I have seen used panels going for, with $150 flat delivery. Minimum order is 10. Opinion ?

    I am starting to come around to Ure way of thinking on installing ground mounts, which I believe I can summarize as: Put ’em up as cheaply as possible. I am not a welder, but I have done wood building framing in the past. I’ve seen some nice wood frame installations on YouTube. Professional installation is rather pricey.

    • Thier 400 w hyperions are $136 with 5% off that – id go there but they are big – 10 panels is a 38 foot rack of half that if you double up on the mounts. But for $1,300 – 4KW???? wow

  11. This is probably wrong and stupid; but have I missed something about the charts? To wit: the Trend Channels look to my untrained eye as to always run at 45 degrees, approximately, whether up or down-going. Now, I realize the x-and-y-axis values greatly affect the slope of the thing, and maybe you always scale the x and y value ranges to produce a pleasant-appearing graphic, but one would think occasionally one would run VERY sharply up or downhill — but they almost always seem to be at a neat 45 degree diagonal.

    What have I missed?

    ( A Happy, Prosperous, and Helthy New Year to all!)

    • I notice that too. But that’s how it looks when you set the lower limit of chart display to just under the lows of a trading range and the high just above it.
      Used to be lows happened faster but with “financial engineering” they now are about equal in directional time relations looks like.

  12. You are welcome..the little tree lights were for a christmasTree decorations to emphasize my Xmas letter..
    I am big on lights and heat..totally planned on the grandkids making lights for everyone but didn’t get it done in time..
    taking sick people to endless clinic visits is taking up to much time.
    the Wicktorian lamp is coming along..The mini me wants an elf cottage for the base so that is what we are working on..
    after that I think we will work on a gravity Tilley heater..at dollar general they have some really nice stainless bowls that will make a nice reflector..
    A simple Tilley heater can be made out of a bean Can and soup can.
    I am working on a designer make a simple Tilley heater and incorporate ceramic..

  13. The message.. that one hit home everyone got a t-shirt ..
    people walk around and the appearance is everyone that you see is in so much better shape.. its their mask and the assumption is they are better off.. in reality everyone is dealing with a unique set of issues that they are dealing with.
    its like managed healthcare in Canada and other countries and for pay healthcare here in the usa. looking at us medical system from afar you assume that its better in the usa. because there’s that long wait period in the managed care countries. when in comparison The wait periods are just as long or longer in the usa. its the illusion that’s painted..
    now if you have a lot of money you can get in this afternoon they will keep you alive until you run out of money..its why the USA has one of the worst medical systems in the entire world..A pay to play environment. its why hospitals buy million dollar mansions and guaranteed income levels ..it about the money and business plan..the homes are write offs.
    medications are thousands of percent higher and services provided o my if you have enough coins..
    its the illusion that people buy..once you have seen the veil dropped then you know and cannot stop seeing it..everyone in every social class is affected by a situation that only they know

      • Oh you don’t leave with anything.. you leave as you came to the world with nothing..what is truly sad for me is I remember back when it wasn’t like this..
        even in the early nineties it was bad but not like it is today.. they absolutely refuse to treat someone sick if they don’t have the insurance or they don’t have the funds.. the ER is the biggest clinic.. you don’t have the money .. go to the ER.. where instead of a fifty dollar visit its a thousand just to walk in the door..
        there is only one way to fix it.. but then the USA would have to admit that the UK and CA and all the other countries were right.. that basic health care is a necessity … they were going to do a surgery on me years ago.. the hospital insurance agency.. ( they are self insured) sent me brochures from hospitals all over the planet to use rather than a US hospital..)
        One gent did that went to india to get his heart surgery done.. the insurance company paid the full trip and expenses.. because it was cheaper than going to a US hospital..

      • things were bad before deregulation of life essentials.. but it has steadily gotten out of hand.. now it is the business model.. when I started you were a volunteer.. doctors didn’t refuse care.. and you could get the medicines you needed.. today that has changed..
        even in the early nineties they were getting volunteers.. nurses mad four dollars and fifty cents an hour a long time high paid nurse was getting six bucks an hour.. Deregulation started the greed syndrome.. hospitals couldn’t get a doctor unless they gave him some incentive.. I know the father inlaw of a cardiac surgeon.. he is mortified at the kids.. the hospital bought them a million dollar mansion.. ( worth more now) gave him five million dollars and guaranteed him half a million.. a year..

        they were spending it so fast that the idiot had to do cabages for eighteen hours a day just to keep up with their lifestyles..
        and he has the highest infection rating of the vast majority of surgeons..

  16. not sure what “managed health care in Canada” is? My Canadian dr. decided that he and is Dr. wife are having a baby and they culled their patients in half. We are out. I’m 78, need heart meds and I have no doctor. My wife too, thankfully she is very healthy on no meds. Perhaps we don’t need a doctor? We eat whole foods, very seldom does a processed food get consumed. I went fishing north of where I live and have a freezer full of Halibut and Ling Cod.
    The health care system sucks; we are on our own to look after out own health.

  17. George: Thank you for your work. I lost a lot of money on the stock market in 1987 and have not owned a stock since.
    In 1998, I started acquiring physical gold and silver coins. It is generally accepted that gold keeps up with inflation. I can verify that: my gold coins have appreciated 5X. Silver is another issue; it has gone up 3X. We are looking at a 25 year period. Were either of them a great investment?

    • One of the issues I have is the broker’s fee for buying and selling. The one to buy really hurts because that reduces your invested principal from the get go. Great investment? Not sure. If you put your money in the DOW for 25 years your return would be about the same. Lack of liquidity for physical is another issue. The tax for physical gold is higher than for other long term capital gains by 1/3+. In hindsight real estate would probably have been your best investment, especially rental property. I own some physical, but it’s part of a basket of assets. Diversification is always key.

    • No.

      They are a “store of value,” like a piece of real estate or 5-25 carat gems.

      You can occasionally make (or lose) money short term through investing in PMs, but generally speaking, an ounce of gold today is worth the same amount (based on purchasing power) as it was last year, or a dozen, a hundred, or a thousand years ago.

      I know nothing about Canadian tax laws or regs. In the U.S., any appreciation in worth (dishonestly measured in USD, not purchasing power) is taxed as a straight capital gain. Therefore, the only reason to play the PM market is to buy and hold, for when our currency collapses or Iran drops HEMPS and sends North America back to the 18th Century, evaporating our means of exchange in the process. Post-Internet, a silver dime will likely buy a loaf of bread (just like it did in 1964), where a stack of $20 bills won’t.

      Not investment advise, YMMV, etc…

    • If your income is in a sweet spot(really low in a given year), you can minimize capital gains by selling just enough to stay in the low bracket – if the market cooperates, of course. The premiums and discounts are generally not conducive to making money in the short term unless you use a derivative asset, like miners or ETF’s, and that’s the end of “safety”. One thing to be particularly aware of is security – unregistered assets are a thief’s dream. Make sure a trusted heir knows how to locate whatever you have, if you have any.

      Moving PM’s in and out of the country may be regulated – I don’t know. It’s just another hiccup in the game of life.

      Just my non-pro opinion.

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