Social and Economic War Gradients

by

There really isn’t too much interesting news flow today, except for The War, of course. 

But even here, the stories (like Hollywood Halts Releases In Russia, Including ‘The Batman’) strike us as childish.  Just like throwing out good vodka.

You see, the real story here – as seen from the East Texas Outback – is more one of real estate than Reality; more resources and this includes “tax chattel” (humans).

In fact, from our odd economics based futuring perspective, the odds of nuclear weapons will be higher this weekend than even the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Why?

Back to Real Estate.  Back in 2014, or thereabouts, remember the EU bigwigs let their plans out of the bag.  “We envision a European Union stretching from Portugal to Vladivostok” or words to that effect.

As a result, Russia likely views Ukraine as a likely source of EU expansionism.  And in what the (crooked, co-opted) western Media overlooks EU starts considering Ukraine’s application for membership (ukrinform.net).

Real estate, money and resources, and women…why else “do war”?

Ever since, Russia – no stranger to violent invasions – has gone right to the “bad place.”  Recall, as my consigliere pointed out Monday, that Russia had actually asked to join NATO in 1998/1999 but was turned down.  War, understand, is a good business model. Europe knows that.

Absent periodic wars to “cull the herd” human populations would already have eaten through all planetary resources and we’d be well down the “backside of Civilization” as depletion would be coming for us all.

Straightaway, then, let’s be clear:  War is bad, immoral, painful, and the cause of great human sufferings.

BUT it spurs the hell out of technical innovation.  And it keeps the population in check.  It keeps strong governments in power, and the threat of “oppressors” (paint ’em up any color you want; red, yellow, whatever…) keeps populations paying “tribute” [taxes].

Why, in a war-free world, there would be no nuclear power, for example.  And this morning, nuclear power provides 19.7 percent of America’s power.  That wind provides only 8 1/2 percent confirms we don’t have enough windmills to tilt at around state and the Nation’s Capitol.

We’re Here – As We Told You

From a trading standpoint. I told you in December where our Aggregate Index was forecasting, we’d be in the immediate future.  Follow the crudely scrawled yellow arrow…

Well, how about that?  We got something right.  Which is why I invented the Aggregate Index approach in the first place.

Now We Have Two Problems

The Future will be decided in the next week.  Literally, the Future is being battled over even now.  But not in ways apparent from watching Mainstream Mush Media.  This is far simpler.

One:  Fifth Waves under Elliott can extend downward. 

So, even if Biden gets a couple of promising job numbers (which might help the market close for the week) the larger problem is the potential for a decline after severe weekend fighting over Mariupol and Odessa.  (Remember?  We said these would be key.)

Two: The Decline since November may be a Larger Wave 1 Down.

There are several ways this can occur.  But the most OBVIOUS is that we are in the final part of only the Opening Act of War.  Refer to G.A. Stewart’s book for the prophetic views of Nostradamus.  Or open a newspaper and scan for the items related to the two other major wars expected:  Taiwan and Israel/Iran.

Thing is, IF the decline from November is only a Larger Wave 1 down, then its 5th wave low becomes the larger degree Wave’s first decline low.  Like so:

Decoder ring time:

  • Green Circle:  We carry the Wave 1 fifth low over to the next larger degree worksheet.  That came in Wednesday of last week.
  • Purple Arrow:  The Wave 2 rally (in this larger count that we could already be in – just too dumb to notice) could scream up to 40,494 but at a minimum we would like to see a Fibonacci retracement of 0.382 which is the 38,347 area.  Monday the Aggregate closed at 37,407 so almost up to a minimal Wave 2 rally point but could go much higher.
  • The Red Arrow:  This says when (whatever is ahead) happens, it could wallop the shit out of markets.  Down under 31,000 in t5he Aggregate.

None of this is trading or investment advice.  We don’t do that.  We are, however, keenly interested in the Long Wave economics aspects.

Real Collapse in Perspective

We’ve been noodling the notion World War III started in late 2019 with the possible release at the world military games in China of Covid-19.  Oh, sure, the “official” story is still “wet market,” but the data is contentious, and we the simple tax chattel will likely never know the truth.

If we run the clock from Germany’s first invasions of WW II (Poland, 1939) and run the clock out to the 2022 invasion by Russia of Ukraine in 2022, we see that it’s 83-years.

If you have a good memory, you’ll recall that a colleague of mine and I posited a long than Kondratiev wave function based on bankrupting of currencies.  This was projected as an 83.5 year cycle.  We did this work in 2001.

Essentially, it reduced as a 27.8 year Kondratiev half-way PLUS a full 44.66-year Kondratiev.  Which is how long it seems to take for a nation’s currency to be wrecked.  When the residual purchasing power drops into the 3% to 5% range, people’s faith in government is destroyed.

We are under 4 percent remaining purchasing power now vis the 1913 pre-Fed dollar.

Curiously, there is a “World War III over Money” angle, then, as we see how cryptos have arisen strongly as an alternative currency.  Ukraine is  crypto friendly and Russia distinctly not.

Another Gradient Issue

There is also the matter of sociopolitical friction.

If you have a very rich family living next door to a dirt-poor family, you’re asking for social conflict.  Haves will defend and are generally disinclined to share with the have-nots.  What comes as a consequence is theft, burglary, fencing stolen goods and other bad social antics; the poor don’t like being that way and will take if you turn your back on ’em.

You can literally spot the high crime rates of big cities by driving around.  Look for those areas where the poor but up against the rich.  There’s your high crime risk area.

Countries are much the same way.  The Odessa File was a good spy novel (Forsyth) about Nazis and such.  But Odessa really was (and persists) as a hotbed of national socialism, perhaps the most extreme outside of Germany.  having suffered at the hands of Nazis, Russia may be seen as “still fighting the last war” in seeking a “hard win” in southern Ukraine.

My consigliere suggests we all keep an eye on Odessa.  Russia will want an “example” and Odessa may be the place where the gloves come off or the NSNW launch codes come out.  Just an inkling, but on the hot sheet to watch, nonetheless.

No Time to Play

In our accounts, we’re snoozing on the sidelines for now.  Sure, the astrological Mars ruling pops out tomorrow.  But the ADP numbers might provide an upside surprise.  and if so, then the Federal numbers could be good as well.  It’s a kind of given the Thursday job cuts report will be very low.

All of which would have us awaiting a week-ending potential to rally but then comes March 6th which has popped up a couple of times on dream and prophesy boards.

We may have more to report next week on our Prophets and Losses.

A little over an hour to the open, Dow futures were down more than 200 and much of Europe was down more than 2 percent.  But by this afternoon or maybe tomorrow, some of that monthly 401k money may come in so we’ll just have to see what gives.

BTC is up in the $45,000 range.  We’re expecting our outlook for BTC to take over the gaps created by US sanctions a bit.  Which could keep pressing BTC up.  As it does, old-line governments worldwide may be expected to impose hard bans on cryptos because they make it so easy to work-around government sanctions.

When government does get “hard on cryptos” it may become difficult to continue a position in them if you have one.  We don’t play it, though: since we’ve seen it as an anti-government money scheme (like Tulips in 1934 Holland) from the get-go.

The Associated Press story Russia eyes sanctions workarounds in energy, gold, crypto | AP News gets into the workarounds space.

Government not only hates competition but can get downright mean and nasty when its rules are ignored.  We don’t pick fights with Big Bullies.

Shorts

Truckers are heading for the nation’s capitol Truckers stop in Missouri during their long-haul convoy for ‘freedom’ – qconline.com.

Neil Diamond has sold his music catalog for big bucks:  Neil Diamond sells music catalog, recording rights to Universal music group | Fox Business

And if you are looking for a job, toss an app in at Target:  Target to boost pay up $24 an hour in competitive markets (bostonherald.com)

ATR: Supplies Roll In

Credit where due:  We don’t go into town very often:  No need when you live semi-remote.  Amazon brings in power tools, hardware, and occasional loads of paper products and plastic bags.  Cheaper-than-Dirt keeps us supplied with plinking rounds. (Ever plink with tracer rounds?)  And ViaSat keeps Skype going.  The once every week to 10-days for a grocery top-off is just fine.

But we have noticed a good increase in the speed of product deliveries from Amazon, Wal-Mart, and Harbor Freight in the past couple of weeks.  We’re getting “expect early delivery of….” notices now.

This is NOT to say that supply chain disruptions are ending.  There will always be stories like Toyota cyberattack: Production to restart in Japan after attack on Kojima Industries – CNN.

But for now – the past week, or so – things have definitely improved on the speed and reliability of deliveries.  Let’s see how long before the (slow) media picks up on the “last mile user experience” which is brightening locally.  Be an interesting timing because it may tell us about the “disconnectedness” of media.

A shout-out and thank you to the US Post Office, UPS, and FedEx for coming through.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

47 thoughts on “Social and Economic War Gradients”

  2. “why else “do war”?”
    You left out RELIGION. It’s been the greatest driver of human suffering in history. The irrational zealotry it inspires can drive even normal people to do the most barbaric things. And Putin believes he’s on a crusade for the Russian Orthodox Church.
    And don’t forget our old friends, national, racial and ethnic hatred.
    Yes, there may be money changers in the Temple, but at least they are rational. The folks doing the Devil’s work are motivated by feverish primal reasoning.

    • If there were an upvote I would click it. We cannot instill in people to have a belief in something un-provable and make that belief more important then their current life (your soul or your infinite future) and not have infighting among the sects. People are easily controlled within those sects, and I agree many of those beliefs can be very beneficial (10 commandments are good for a society). But the other side, that your beliefs are correct and the other beliefs are evil and put at risk your everlasting soul are powerful incentives to fight.

      • If it’s provable, it doesn’t require belief (or faith… ;-)

        I was raised to believe that my personal beliefs were my PERSONAL beliefs, and that there were many paths to God.

    • Blowing Another George gasket? To think, to comment or not to comment stirring your little pharisees’ pot again today, we see.

      • Naw, it’s just that self aggrandising alpha-turds screwing up other people’s lives brings out the best in me. Especially those that hide behind patriotism, religion and children.
        “One man CAN make a difference.” Gravilo Princip.

    • Always been animosity between Russian Orthodoxy and Ukranian Orthodoxy. Ukranian Metropolitans have always claimed precedence over the Russians, dating back to the introduction of Orthodoxy over a thousand years ago. If you want to see a real fight, add righteous anger to the mix over who’s in charge. Moscow captured a number of Ukranian relics years ago and finally returned them under Yeltsin. It was an olive branch. Putin has jumped the shark on this one, however. Don’t think he’s the man he once was. Stroke? Post-COVID malaise? Who’s running the war anyway – Putin or his generals?

  3. War does not primarily arise because of power elite imposing planned population control measures. War arises for a tangential reason, which is that (1) increases in populations drive the competition for land and critical resources, which become expensive, hard to get or completely unavailable. A somewhat related cause of war is (2) natural environmental stresses (e.g. periodic droughts and floods), which push populations to seek new and more productive areas. Other historic causes of war are (3) greed and envy; (4) political disagreement (e.g. U.S. Civil War and Revolutionary War); (5) ethnic cleansing; and last but certainly not. least, (6) religion (e.g. Crusades, Middle East, Reformation).

    War certainly drives innovation. It also plays a manor role in national economies (refer to Eisenhower’s “Farewell Adddress”). Entire industries rose up by producing arms and war supporting materials. These industries throw huge amounts of campaign funds at politicians and on expensive lobbyists who press politicians for increased defense funding on corporate self-interest programs. In Russia, this group would be the oligarchs. While arms innovation and production offer sound deterrence for potential aggressors, they also make war more likely should a confrontation (due to the reasons cited above) arise.

    As a natural course of war, people die. If we are to take Vlad at his word, this current version of conflict in the Ukraine threatens to cull a great many souls from the surface of this planet. Now THAT is indeed population control . . . in the extreme. It’s just control via a plan gone horribly wrong.

    • All good reasoning for wars.

      Someone on here commented about the various “hubs” used by the elite in the Ukraine: money laundering, human trafficking, drugs and so on. – I’m inclined to believe that, specially after the laptop fiasco.

      Seems the Grizzly Bear doesn’t like that kind of thing in the neighborhood. But, he’s gotta beat up Paddington Bear to stop it. – which is like deer hunters killing Bambi, psychologically speaking.

      (Someone who makes you laugh, has a different charisma than a apprentice getting fired.) Right or wrong, public perception is what evolves.

    • How true and well said. When will it ever stop? Unfortunately, most likely never until we figure out a way to break the cycle. Pray, we find a way to stay out of this one but I am afraid that will not happen. As long as there are people willing to do unspeakable violence and evil to others pray also for those willing to do the same in their defense.

      Unfortunately, the nightmares never go away.

  5. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/what-is-chinas-onshore-yuan-clearing-settlement-system-cips-2022-02-28/

    CIPS is on the horizon. China is rolling out the digital Yuan to compete with USD. War is theatre. Anthony Sutton wrote many books on how this dialect plays out and was kicked out of Stanford Research institute because he was too data driven. Sanctions wil hurt US more than Russia. I know you don’t think much of BTC but you need to recognize it as a tool for a competing monetary system as the dollar sunsets. Why is BTC around and who benefits? Keep up the great work!

  7. George

    We are witnessing in the current war a pivotal change in how ground forces are used. Armour is no longer King of the battle field. The man portable missile is taking that role!
    I predict that there will be a shift from the main battle tank to high mobility vehicles carrying multiple missile launchers. Shoot and Scoot will be their form of operation.
    It will follow the trend line that is seen in fighter aircraft. More missiles and fewer machine guns!
    The resources used to make a 70 ton tank could make quit a few missile carrying vehicles.
    Hey, just the thinking of an old dude drinking some coffee!

    • Artillery has been and will always be the King of battle.
      Tankers quake at the mere thought of it.
      Neither aircraft or missiles can equal the sheer volume of steel on target.

  8. Question: What is the sole reason there is to be an Apocalypse?

    Nostradamus and The Age of Desolation, G. A. Stewart, 2013, Page 67
    The children of the Sons of God play an integral role in all apocalyptic prophecy, as you will read in the next four chapters. The rebelling angels and their offspring, the Nephilim, are the sole reason there is to be an apocalypse. This often-disregarded aspect of Christian eschatology minimizes the role of humanity.

  9. Oh, and did ya see this?

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-man-shot-dead-as-convoy-escaping-kyiv-comes-under-ukrainian-fire/amp/

    Watching Israeli news … they said Israel wasn’t going to side against Russia but bowed to pressure by the US. Wish is had a video of that.

    One day the US is against Iran and the next day there’s talk of nuclear talks … buy some oil on another day … then there’s the drone thing going on. Israel has got to be saying, “WTF ??”

    All the while military equipment does the global hokey pokey polluting the environment and, Kerry bitches at us common folks saying we’re kicking up too much carbon.

    This world’s insane.

  10. We have seen the enemy – again – and it is the same assholes that brought us covert19.
    Brainwashed masses (look in mirror) keep falling for the same media scheisse . WTF over ?

    “Putin evil, mentally diminished…
    They – the media are not Ure friends, they are part and parcel of the Deep State..
    – Humanities Adversary/Enemy.

    Every media claim made against Putin is in fact a self admission of our evil actions around the globe in the name of deepstates Fake war on terror.

    Mentally Diminished ? Evil ? The man just spent 4/Four Hours – Four Hours speaking with Q&A – Four F-ing Hours Straight! That sound like someone hiding a ailment/sickness/disease?

    The whole time Vladd kept bringing the talk back to MORALS & Moral values. gw bush/obumer/slo/merkle/macroon/blojo..have never done 1 hour straight, let alone 4 hours.
    Mass media watching/listening to Public – no longer understands or values Morals and Ethics.

    Does a mentally diminished, evil MAN spend 4 hours straight in lecture hall arguing for Virtue, and against pedophilia & nazi world order ?

    You will know a Man/Women by their words and works – pay attention to the words spewed from president harris/vp slo – 1st act – admiting to and then stealing the 2020 election..tells you all you need to know about the man, the party, the coup.

    Got Crypto ? theres a panic 2 own coming to Country near you soon – buckle up buttercups, gonna be a bumpity ride https://youtu.be/FArmRa092H0
    cept for G pops – cant win it, if you aint it, so no BTC 4 G

    • Govt will be along for all cryptos but their own – be patient, patient.
      The govt has no reason to offer any convertibility whatsoever. Or, are we the only thinkers on this?
      What’s moar (ure spellin) how many times in WW II did the allied agitprop report Hitler was dying of or about to be overthrown by…and how accurate were those reports?
      Nope, the fog of war has descended on the mass Mind. Ure’s out to the greenhouse

      • I don’t do crypto(yet), since I missed the boat on the steep rise for BTC and the current situation requires serious understanding and monitoring to even break even. That takes time, and that’s a cost of investing. Sometimes it’s better to stay with a low return and less effort if you have better things to do with your time and want to sleep at night.

        I do think a way for unredeemed “coins” to be bought and sold will appear, with value ultimately fed back into the conventional monetary system. It might be like the drug cartels, with an entire parallel economy using crypto as a form of payment and a partial store of value. There would be the cat and mouse game with law enforcement for the cryptos that we currently have with all other unapproved commodities such as drugs, guns, and women.

    • The first tip off to head for the exits is when ANY head of state invokes morality and virtue. Puts the “moron” in “oxymoronic”.
      Four hours is nothing. Ever been stuck on an overseas flight sitting next to some born-again true believer? Putin did everything except mention the need to maintain the purity of his precious bodily fluids.
      First rule of staying in power is: Don’t piss off your military and intelligence services. I wonder if Zapruder’s camera has any film left in it.

    • Vlad may talk about morals, but I suggest you read Matthew, ‘by their fruits you shall know them’. So far, the fruits we’re looking at are death and destruction.

      • 8 Years nazi brigades/ukies bombing/shelling innocent civilians-victims in the Donbass regions – for the past 8 years. Cant hide that scheisse behind Ure book of ..
        ???
        That is some virtuous action there by golly – praise the lord and pass the collection basket !

        Suggest you review the historic “fruits” of your chosen religion before casting dispersion’s on the unsullied.

  11. “Why, in a war-free world, there would be no nuclear power”. Clearly not true, scientists were working on nuclear piles before WW2. No doubt that research would have progressed, if not slower and much more efficiently because a much lower budget. Smart people would still understand the value proposition of that power source. That is like saying without military we would wouldn’t have rockets or satellites. Certainly we would, but it would have been a slower and more efficient process following supply and demand and people spending their own money on their dreams. No arguments military spending changes a societies focus for where the research and funding is allocated. What we don’t know, is without military spending consuming so much, what non military innovations might have taken place and progressed society.

    • We might get there, but not without the Manhattan project and buttloads of money to build out Oak Ridge and Hanford.
      We’d still be breaking rocks with steam and diesel.
      OTOH land north of Vegas would have been cheaper and more accessible…

    • It’s likely that without the military driver, light(and heavy) water reactors would have been quickly supplanted by thorium based fission, fusion, or other systems that have a greater potential safety margin and no real potential for diversion to WMD’s. There’d have been a much greater incentive to burn a given amount of fuel down to the maximum practical degree rather than just scraping of the top few percent as in the current reactor sets. Spent fuel would be considered an asset as well as a liability and there’d be no desire to store high level waste when it could be burned down more completely for usable energy. I’m still amazed that we’re still using enriched uranium and light water reactors in most of our nuclear power systems. Practical fusion is still not on the table(pun intended) regardless of the latest hype from Lockheed-Martin. Of course, had we taken this course, Chernobyl and Fukushima Diachi incidents would never have occurred. Of course, the alternative consequences are beyond our ability to predict.

      Then again, much of the “fossil” fuels used by the armed forces would still be available.

  12. I remember sitting in a restaurant one evening 20 years ago in SW Uganda near the Rwanda border and listening to a Rwandan pastor recount his experiences during the Tutsi genocide in 1994. Approximately 800,000 Tutsis were slaughtered by the Hutus.

    He told of his parishioners (men, women and children) being locked inside his church and then being forced to watch while it was lit on fire and burned to the ground. It is probably the longest period of silence at a dinner table I can remember. I left, went to my room and cried.

    I know these kind of atrocities have occurred since man first picked up a club but this was the closest I got to someone who had experienced it first hand. That shock lasted a long time for me. Last night on TV, I watched a 6 year old innocent Ukrainian child lose her life to a bomb delivered by a f..king madman. I got that same feeling again.

    We now have commercial and social media that delivers the hell of war live and direct to our screens and I am not sure we are better for it. I am torn between feelings of horror, anger, sadness and helplessness.

    MAN’S INHUMANITY TO MAN!

  15. “if Biden gets a couple of promising job numbers”

    Besides our friends in SaFran.. who in the world would do that..
    We are fast approaching zimbamerica.. hyperinflation inflation has overtaken the monthly budget.
    Fuel is rising so fast that you want to keep the rank topped off daily.
    The supply chain is totally broken our currency is being printed out of value.
    Industry is almost a non existence.
    And everyone is terrified that nuclear war will happen while we sleep..
    Not to even bring up moving nuclear missiles everywhere.. Japan is now looking at letting nato and the usa placing them..
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/china-rattled-by-calls-for-japan-to-host-us-nuclear-weapons

    Has the world really gone mad..

  16. “if Biden gets a couple of promising job numbers”

    Besides our friends in SaFran.. who in the world would do that..
    We are fast approaching zimbamerica.. hyperinflation inflation has overtaken the monthly budget.
    Fuel is rising so fast that you want to keep the rank topped off daily.
    The supply chain is totally broken our currency is being printed out of value.
    Industry is almost a non existence.
    And everyone is terrified that nuclear war will happen while we sleep..
    Not to even bring up moving nuclear missiles everywhere.. Japan is now looking at letting nato and the usa placing them..
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/china-rattled-by-calls-for-japan-to-host-us-nuclear-weapons

    Has the world really gone mad..

    2 Timothy 3:1-5 

    But understand this, that in the last days there will come times of difficulty. For people will be lovers of self, lovers of money, proud, arrogant, abusive, disobedient to their parents, ungrateful, unholy, heartless, unappeasable, slanderous, without self-control, brutal, not loving good, treacherous, reckless, swollen with conceit, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, having the appearance of godliness, but denying its power. Avoid such people
    Matthew 24:12 

    And because lawlessness will be increased, the love of many will grow cold.

    John 8:44 

    You are of your father the devil, and your will is to do your father’s desires. He was a murderer from the beginning, and has nothing to do with the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he lies, he speaks out of his own character, for he is a liar and the father of lies.

    1 Timothy 4:1 
    Now the Spirit expressly says that in later times some will depart from the faith by devoting themselves to deceitful spirits and teachings of demons,

    Timothy 3:1-4 
    But understand this, that in the last days there will come times of difficulty. For people will be lovers of self, lovers of money, proud, arrogant, abusive, disobedient to their parents, ungrateful, unholy, heartless, unappeasable, slanderous, without self-control, brutal, not loving good, treacherous, reckless, swollen with conceit, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God,

    A few years ago I questioned how this could ever happen.. now I see it all happening..

  17. George
    Israeli News Live just said the aliens will be on planet X in our solar system in September of this year. They will claim they are our saviors. The other planet will cause great disruptions of our planet, affecting China the most. China will need a new place to live.

  18. Slow news day with Russia Today which has a blurb related to this “Tri-City Herald” article?
    https://t.co/JIWtDrH0pv
    There was a building lockdown at the Hanford nuclear site after what sounded like gunshots was heard. Officials concluded that it was apparently a false alarm. The report notes at the 11:37 am mark of police finding a weapon in a vehicle.

  19. “(like Tulips in 1934 Holland)”
    That’s 1634, G_____ . Tulip Mania preceded both cryptos and the Federal Reserve.

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