In our www.peoplenomics.com newsletter Wednesday we set out some target windows in 2017 for the stock market to make its new All-Time Highs and be done with the generally rally that has been underway since the depths of the Great Depression.
I explained that there are several factors that will push things along. But, already this morning we can see an outline of the bondholder community beginning to get a little, oh, shall we say “nervous?”
For example, there was a German bond sale this week and the bonds were sold with a negative yield.
In addition, we see that the interest (poor pun, sorry) has been piqued in “emerging currency bonds.” Places like South Africa to Russia get mentioned in this report.
The problem with emerging market bonds (EMBs) is that they can be like holding a stick of dynamite which is lit at both ends. (We will take the discussion of the need of caps offline – this is just a mental imagine, not an ordinance course).
On the one end, the EMB might deliver a pretty good interest rate. But at the other, the FOREX market is hardly a stable place. So if you buy into an EMB you might be able to make a 6% nominal yield on the underlying, but if the Forex market turns screwy and the exchange rate drops 5%, what you you gained?
Correct answer: Not a lot. And what’s more, there is the MUCH larger risk when you take money out of the country. So we will stay the course to our modest triple levered gains in the US and be satisfied with tracking 22.9% annualized, ex-commissions. It still beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick and I’ve had plenty of those here lately so I do claim some expertise.
The U.S. Market, that I still expect to explode up when the bond bottom is passing, is up 160 Dow points in the futures market.
Tomorrow: Mammoth Friday
This morning’s column will be blissfully short because there is just so damn much news that will be rattling around tomorrow it may change up how markets look. (Cowardly profit taking is possible. But he who fights and runs away lives to fight another day, I hear).
- There is the Consumer Price Index,
- Retail Sales
- Empire State manufacturing
- Industrial production and utilization from the Fed.
Strap on a Depend and come on by.
Veep Bleep Bleep Bleep Yeah
(So, not up on Beetle’s riffs, are we? Just an awareness check, sorry. You’re excused if under 30.)
Oh – and then we will see how Donald Trump goes with the VP pick.
I think Newt would be my pick. First because he knows everyone from God on down. And secondly because he is a thinker who would make a fine president of the senate. He might actually read legislation – which would set about a refreshing change in DC.
The Indy Gov is a great guy, don’t get me wrong. But to me he’s more like chief of staff material, but I’m hardly an apprentice. Michael Flynn for SecDef…unlike most pundits, I don’t see the Trump moves as singular dimensions. Media apes (and apettes) tend to think little and linear when someone like Trump interviews four people that there will be only one “winner.”
I’m guessing, from reading his book on deal-making, that what he may be up to would be something like a SLATE being announced tomorrow. Chris Christy for Attorney General? Likely not enough prosecutorial experience, but running one of the complex Fedocracies? You bet.
Since Trump is not a “known” quantity – and like Pinocchio “ain’t got no strings on me” I think he could do something dramatic like this and pull it off.
Announcing a few key cabinet level appointments AND the VP at the same time would overshadow the Hillary announcement because he would be presenting the full meal deal instead of the quarter pounder.
But we shall see…that’s just how I see him playing it. You’d see a whole slate and that would let him jump the Clinton camp in checkers-like style. That would also leave him free to strike solely at issues until November while Hil et al would be trying to parcel out their hints and such.
It would change the game in that you could see what kind of government you’d be getting well in advance…and each of the department heads would be able to hone in and garner facetime now rather than the laborious old-line party playbook of the same old parceled out bullship.
Can you imagine Flynn being able to work policy and snipe at Ash Carter from now to November? Or Newt slugging at grandpa Joe? Pence deftly prepositioning everything including transition planning and policy development plus working on staff appointments so the whole thing unwraps like a Christmas present?
Fake drama has got to go sometime…it’s really a matter of who in politics will get there first.
I like to think Trump is unconventional enough to do it…but that gets answered Friday.
But after the leadership gap since Kennedy, innovation would be a fine house warming gift for America.
Meantime, however, perhaps republicans never change their stripes: Anti-Trump folks are still trying to derail the popular Trump by fiddling with Convention rules. If they succeed, it makes the Crooked Party concept more valid. Or, the Party Deaf to the People…which now that I think about it, is all of them, so far.
Aw…it’s hoping too much, I know.
Falling Down: The Hil
Hillary, meantime, is tripping over her own reputation…even though she wasn’t under oath when questioned by the FBI which is why Comey should be polishing his resume. In case the apparent high bidder loses. Are the sheep waking, or just dreaming?
Lots of questions linger about why the Comey FBI probers were forced to sign special non-disclosures. Which sounds like leak plugging, to me. Perhaps some future grand jury….
Bombs In Space
Our military affairs expert “warhammer” noticed that the Russians are making flanking moved again…
Russia is claiming to have a new bomber in development which can launch nukes from space:
While the aircraft/spacecraft sounds impressive, the mission it is designed for is 50 years behind the power curve.
Air breathing vehicles are much, much easier to track, even the stealthy ones these days, especially the higher they fly. Orbital vehicles from several nations are equipped with radar, cameras and infra-red sensors designed to detect items exiting or entering our atmosphere (IR sensors pick up the heat of high-velocity vehicles). Strategic air defenses would have almost two hours to track and attack aircraft like the Russian one being touted by their Strategic Missile Forces.
So while the Ruskies may brag, their strategic thinking lags. They are throwing their money away on an outdated concept.
There is one economic reality WH didn’t mention, though: Maybe, like the present-day US, you use the military and defense community as a big adjustable-stimulus tool. Remember, they are parallel working on advances in teleportation by 2035.
ZIKA and Yee Shall Find
All of 282 cases in Florida, so far.
At least that’s the buzz…
I have always held an admittedly morbid fascination with how news stories become math games. First place I noticed it was in body counts from Vietnam back during coverage of that.
But hell, that’s the American Media Game, isn’t it? Numeralize and monetize!
Victims of our own lofty ideals. But it’s easy to dance to and sheep like easy steps, best of all.
Take a number and come back tomorrow. Or, don’t BAHther.