Smarmy Markets & Dirty Politics

Our work has been indicating for some time (at least if you subscribe to our Peoplenomics.com site) that the markets are likely to place themselves in a “break-either-way” position by the time we get out to the congressional mid-term circus three weeks from today.

What hasn’t been clear is just how things will work out at the inflation point.  There’s a chance we could be at the bottom of a trend channel, or a top.  Let me show you what I mean:

Since we landed (in this daily view of our Aggregate Index just about smack-dab on the bottom of the mirror trend channel, it’s only logical that we would bounce today.  I suppose it helps to know that the blue trace is the Aggregate itself and the red trace is the 9-day moving average (9DMA).  Or, not.

Sure-as-shootin, there’s the Dow future’s:  Obediently looking to bounce 140 points at the open.  We picked up a few hamburgers worth of lunch-money on the long side and bailed in the Monday session to take some spare-change off the table, realizing that there would be a chance of something akin to a short-term double-bottom, which is what we figured the 89-point peel-off of the Dow was Monday.

Making lunch money isn’t a big deal…but making larger bets on the post-election outcome is where things get pretty damn interesting.  Markets are “smarmy” this way, trying to ingratiate themselves with whoever the likely winners might be.

As a dart toss, we would have to look at pre-election action working its way up to channel support, but then, in the final election press a decline to the channel marked with a C.  It is said that markets are “driven by news” – but a clearer view is that wave counts, channel action, and money flows are off “doing their own thing” and that news is always happening.  It just gets “the blame” when convenient.

Although this is NOT TRADING ADVICE, it seems to us that we should be in a few days of up action, moving toward the B channel line, which would line up with options expiring Thursday (indices) and Friday (equities).  Could be a good pop, too, since bulls hate to roll over and give bears Big Money.  A continuation into early next week, then a correction, one final press, and then we should see which channel line it is.

As we have noted previously, the present action should be viewed with great suspicion.  That’s because if the jackass party wins congress, America is headed for two years of sociopolitical gridlock.

That would be very bad for markets, but near as we can figure, the real Crash Risk is still ahead the Monday after Thanksgiving, or so.  Our reasoning here is simple:  From the top in 1929 (Sept. 3) to the Big Crash, we noted 55-calendar days.  Similarly, in such things as ’87 and so forth, we see the same clustering about the 55-day from all-time-highs.

With this in mind, especially if the jackass party wins, we could see something like either a terrorism even over Thanksgiving, or there could be a Middle East Oil Embargo, or even something like a major West Coast Earthquake.

This latter is rather the intriguing possibility because Quakes seem to be “drawn to named holidays.”  We had the Boxing Day (Banda Aceh) quake, the Good Friday (Alaska ’63) quake and so forth.  Additionally, there has been plenty of recent quake activity around the Pacific Ring of Fire, and to our simplistic thought-models, when you move one side of a plate, things can get dicey antipodal to that.

There is a minor cluster of market breaks around 37-days after the ATH, in which case the holiday to watch will be Veterans’ Day on November 11th.  Maybe something like a jackass party win…a fake-out rally – and then going short the 8th or 9th.  (I think I’m on CoastToCoast with George Noory on the 7th of November, economics, new book and such…details to follow.)

As always, with out small cookie-jar of assets, we’re pleased to know that the Great Stealth Inflation (which is how the recovery from the Housing Bubble collapse was affected,  Print Like Hell and hide the evidence under a TARP.  As the National Debt continues to relentlessly compound, it will be entertaining here in an hour, or so, to see what the Fed gins up in the way of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

With the export of US Goods sluggishly not responding to presidential exhortations (because the dollar is strong, effectively raising US export prices when landed in foreign countries) and with Retail Sales more or less steady (good), we expect to see Industrial Production stable.  The degree to which is varies from bounds (or sales and exports) we will infer the Fed really does have a political thumb on the scales.

So watch and be amused…or not.

A Pseudo-Democrat

Great piece of investigative journalism in beliefs of Missouri democrat senator McCaskill over here.  Project Vertias strikes again.  ““People just can’t know that.” MO Sen. McCaskill Hides Agenda Including “semi-automatic rifle ban” from Moderate Voters, Staffers Reveal in Undercover Video it “could hurt her ability to get elected.”

Gee…a democrat willing to lie to and deliberately mislead voters…who’d have thought?  Country’s full of ’em.  Polling Company on FiveThirtyEight calls it Hawley, not McCaskill by 3.

In Aridzona, as CNN sees it: “Neck-and-neck battle for Arizona Senate seat.”

Between the Lines

Press Releases: Secretary Pompeo’s Meeting With Saudi King Salman.

Stock futures rise on upbeat results from UnitedHealth, Morgan Stanley.

Nothing against UnitedHealth, but if Obamacare is saving us all the money (as promised, right?) where’s all this profit coming from???

Between tokes? Musk says new autopilot chip to be available in six months.

Passings: Paul Allen

Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen dies of cancer complications at 65.

NYT Obit over here.

Tuesday Marketing Class

Dandy example of how “trying to be too hop” can backfire.  As Coca Cola learned trying to roll with the reemergent te reo Maori language in New Zealand.

Here’s another “kitchen aid” for you: “Roasted pig in luggage found by CBP beagle at Atlanta airport.”  Can we assume the flight didn’t original in Israel or a Muslim country?

Around the Ranch:  Colder’n hell!  Dropped from the mid 80’s to a high of 52 today and more rain in the gauge than expected – 3.75- inches in the past week with river flood warnings popping up in East Texas.  Climate change?  Not going to sell that around here, bubba…I’ve got a nickel side bet with Elaine that we’ll get some snow this year.

But enough already… all this talk about food and beverage has me primed to chase the cook around the kitchen…so come back for another helping tomorrow.  On tap we’ve got a longwave discussion about prepping on Urban, ERP applied as a “whole life” concept on Peoplenomics, along with more detailed charts after what could be a rally into the end of the week.

34 thoughts on “Smarmy Markets & Dirty Politics”

  1. Mark`s tirades of inconsistency. A Pseudo Democrat example per today’s post.

    1.Mark – I am a “PROUD REPUBLICAN”. As such, one would conclude that Mark voted for President Trump since he has stated he dislikes Hillary.

    2. During his days as a Greeter in the Wal-Mart marketing department, he noticed they outsourced to China to increase profits. As a rich Real Estate Baron, he hires illegal immigrants to do the gardening & clean the house, so he can afford a healthy fruit & nut diet. Isn’t that the same – put mo money in my pocket. Must be the “REPUBICAN” in him. Where are the healthy fruits & nuts grown? – Mexico?

    The hot air is out of The ballon.

    • ECS,
      Wow…angry tone. I worked for a large International Ad agency. Greeter was not on my business cards to my knowledge.

      All fruits and nuts are grown right here in California thank you very much. The Modesto area is the worlds top producing region for Almonds. The Central Coast is a leading producer of berries. And yes first generation illegals I assume do the gardening and clean houses for everyone, no matter what your economic status…That’s all there is available out here. And I really appreciate their entrepreneurial spirit.

      But I harken back to my Italian immigrant family and their friends that dominated the farmers markets of the day. Lombardo’s, Civella’s, Calcaterra’s, Begulia’s, Bologna’s, Palermo and Cascio’s etc. Those names still are molded into my brain from an early age. My family used to make that pilgrimage down to the city every Saturday to pick up produce for the week.Those were the jobs available for the first generation Italians…second generations…not so much…third generation like me…Hell no. But that’s ok…My grandparents didn’t speak much English and working at the City market was a sense of community.

      For first generation Hispanics, it’s much the same…They dominate the landscaping, housekeeping and restaurant scene…it’s their community…Second and third generations…not so much. Like my dad and I they get an education, go to college and assimilate like my Italian family did.

      • List a housecleaning job in the classifieds for $300/hr and I bet you’ll get a lot of prospects who are not illegal aliens…

  2. To Mark: yesterday you stated you are a proud Republican…after multiple posts ranting against Trump. I am having trouble recalling one of your posts that support any Republican platform idea. So I have to ask, what in the Republican platform do you support, and for that matter, who did you vote for in the last election given your disdain of Trump?

    • CJ,
      I guess I should be flattered that you even care what I did and think…I did not vote for Hillary or Trump..I did a protest vote and wrote in John Kasich….many of my friends out here did the same. in my opinion, Kasich was the best candidate out there…Still is. And you don’t read very well. My ideals are mostly based on fiscally conservative viewpoints. On some social platforms I am middle of the road.

      • That’s odd, ‘Mark’. I asked that same question a bit back to a now banned poster named John, and he, too said he voted for Kasich. He received 2684 write in votes in a country of over 300 million. What are the odds that I’ve met two of them on the same site. John also posted tirades on Trump that very much resemble yours. He also was a marketing guy if I recall correctly from California and claimed to be a Republican. I also don’t seem to recall any posts from ‘Mark’ until after ‘John’ had been banned.
        ‘Mark’ I am accusing you of being ‘John’ and calling for you to be banned (again). And since you opposed the nomination of Justice Kavenaugh, let’s use the same criteria as the Senate Democrats. You have no assumption of not being John (no assumption of innocence, as stated by Senator Schumer), the burden of proof to prove you are not John lies with you (Senator Coons), and even if you are not John, with such an accusation, you should be banned anyway (Senator Booker).
        P.S., I asked for some clarification on your policy positions as I was having difficulty reconciling some of your posts that ranted against the tax cut because it would increase the debt and a call for free college educations.

      • Relax. I can assure all: Mark is the “real deal” and who he says he is. – And thanks for the pp/sf info – G

      • Thank you, George. Since there has been a fair amount of back and forth on the site about the political rancor expressed here, I would like to apologize to Mark for wrongly accusing him of secretly being John and withdraw my call for him being banned.

      • A credit to our readership – and an admirable trait being able to see an error, fix, and move on. Now, if I could get George Soros to come around to this way of thinking…

  3. Hi, George,

    It seems that a few of us, me included, are tired of Mark’s (the Mark who resides in San Francisco) constant and near daily rant against President Trump. Your posts tell us to refrain from negative comments against Mark, who you admire for his success in real estate. It is your blog, after all. However, I would rather read posts from Mark on how business and real estate in California are doing. I would also like to know how Pacific Gas and Electric is affecting business, homes, and hospitals as they switch the electric power off, on, and off again, in an effort to reduce the possibility of having downed power lines from the Santa Ana winds ignite fires. Although some of this news can be read on various Internet news sites, I would be interested to read Mark’s post regarding other issues rather than his Trump hate.

    • Nancy,
      You will never hear me say anything nice about Trump…ever. He is an insult to our American heritage and I am ashamed to say he is our President. I have yet to meet anyone in my industry nationwide that thinks differently than I do. Ironically, my colleagues in the same company as me in New York think he is a huge joke. He is less respected in his own home town than the rest of the country. It’s not just me. Since Trumps approval rating is in the high 30’s, I tend to believe I speak for a Majority of Americans.

      About California business and real estate…To say business is robust is an understatement. Huge office high rises that were recently completed or under construction as high as over 1,000 feet tall are sold out. Office rents are at an all time high of $81.25 per sq ft. The reason? Computer, Cloud, Social and AI/Machine Learning Tech as well as Bio-tech. This is the Holy Grail for all MIT, CAL-Tech, Berkeley and Stanford engineers. It’s the New, New York.

      Residential Real Estate up until August was equally as robust. Average days on market for all homes was around 12 days and overbids were as high as $600,000 over the list price. The last 60 days has been a different story however and it isn’t seasonal. We have no seasons here. Average days on market are in the 25+ range and inventory is at at 2 year high. The main cause is higher interest rates. On an average priced home of $1.5 million, the difference in mortgage payments from last year at this time has increased by nearly $1,000 a month. That has eliminated over a third of buyers that would have qualified for a home a year ago.

      Recent volatility in the tech stocks…the down payment resource of most buyers here, has also caused buyer to take a breath and re-think their entry into the market. It’s not doom and gloom however…I welcome the pause…We were moving way too fast and the house buying frenzy gave me deja-vu of the dot com era, when logic seem to take a vacation. Houses are still selling…they are just selling more at national averages now…not the Bay Area’s hyper inflated averages.

      As for PG&E and the rolling blackouts…it’s mostly rural and recently affected area’s like Sonoma , Lake, and northern CA Counties. It’s a huge state and hard to manage all of the power lines that touch trees, brush and wild animals that cause sparking and fires. There was an article in the SF Chronicle this morning about the town of Calistoga in Wine country just dealing with it…and taking it in stride. They’re temporary shut downs and it’s a short term safety measure… until the upcoming rainy season.

  4. The USA…must STOP paying ANY interest on ….printed fiat out of thin air to the OWNERS of the FED….IMMEDIATELY….imo

  5. Paul Allen And The Underthinkers-Six Strings from Hell-Everywhere At Once.https://youtu.be/yJ99cWT2_6o

    In 2009 Paul Allen had billions invested in Charter Communications in East Tennessee where I’m living at and he lost that when they went bankrupt along with myself. I lost over $17,000. That’s why stocks leave a bad taste in my mouth, real estate leaves a good taste in my mouth and we’ll see how cryptocurrencies especially digibyte ,(DGB)leaves a taste in my mouth in January of 2019.

    Have a nice day and may all beings be lovingly fulfilled financially fulfilled and readily fulfilled so be it.

    I got my roof rain catchment working fine ,Gives water throughout the house.
    Got the clogged up Spring pipe working so I’ve got a backup for a backup and then if need be I have a small dirty pond that water can be pre filtered and then regularly filtered after 24 hours of chlorination.
    And 1300 feet away is a ton foot wide stream that never stops.

    Water water water the most important ingredient besides air if a major catastrophe hits the United States 50 to 90% of the people will die because of water or lack of.
    And remember you catch more flies with honey. lol

    • “Water water water the most important ingredient besides air if a major catastrophe hits the United States 50 to 90% of the people will die because of water or lack of.”

      True! But only up to a point, and that is a single area catastrophe like most hurricanes, earthquakes, weather storms, etc., that we’ve experienced in the past 2-3 generations. Once you shift into the longer term historical cycle of multiple catastrophes like we are entering now, then the Most Important Ingredient becomes Air, with Water as a distant second.

      People are getting slammed now that build homes according to 100 year flood plains, with building codes to match. Then a 1,000 year event rolls around like Hurricane Michael, and the homes & levees are devastated.

      We’ll see the same issues on a global scale as the 1,000 year cataclysmic weather cycle reaches peak intensity over the next decade or so. With dozens to hundreds of volcanoes, earthquakes, and associated geophysical disasters (EMP) the air quality will be the primary kill mechanism for human life.

      It might be wise to consider what you are going to breathe as part of your forward looking plans.

  6. Since Mark mentioned that the SF real estate market has cooled off, Zillow Z stock has showed major weakness. Since Zillow has transformed the Real Estate market, it may be a future buy. Since it is a relatively new stock, it does not have a lot is support from analysts when the RE market reverses so I assume it is still risky.

  7. George, The most important voting demographic right now is Conservative women. Bigger than young voters. More important than betrayed farmers. We’ll see if they are fed up with all the goofy nonsense, the Kavanaugh debacle and the end of Roe v. Wade. You Angry Old White guys may want to be nice to your wives, if only just until the election is over. Ha.
    Otherwise you Conservatards won’t be able to keep loading up the national debt (thereby watering down the value of our money supply). Best, Mike.

  8. Agree with earlier post(s) that there’s too much back-and-forth on politics here lately. I can get (ignore) that on other sites and it distracts from the fun stuff of economics and prepping. Can we limit the politics to comments about the principals and not each other? Better – can we limit posts to about 5-6 lines rather than long rambles. Getting tempting to reply TLDR a lot lately. (Go ahead, tell me this is TLDR (too long, didn’t read). :-)

  9. Looking forward to the Clinton Stadium Tour & all the empty seats. Nobody wanted to hear what Hillary had to say when she was running for President. The Democrats had to pay people to attend. I sure they have tripled that budget for this tour.

    In contrast, PT draws huge crowds because people want to hear what he will say. Sort of like the Howard Stern days when people just listened because they didn’t know what he would say next. PT creates excitement.

  10. The topic that is ignored, the elephant in the room, the 2 trillion increase in the national debt. Previous our yearly GDP was approx. 10% lower then our national debt. This is no longer the case. We are now in the same precarious slippery slope as a vast majority of the world’s economies, we owe more than we make. This reflects on our credit worthiness and although we still garner the lowest interest rates, we also have the largest debt. The magnitude of this is reflected in our constant need to increase our national debt ceilings in order to pay just the interest on our national debt. We were told the 2 trillion dollar tax cut would stimulate production. It is becoming apparent that a large chuck went into stock buy backs, which increased the wealth of majority stock holders. The majority have shown little interest in investing in manufacturing, manufacturing remains a low profit return. No manufacturing jobs or little job growth = a stagnant tax base. A stagnant tax base = a shortfall in tax revenues needed to address the national debt.

    The real story behind the constant budget ceiling increases, is that our credit rating has and will suffer further and our national interest rates will increase. That’s the battle, it’s a lose, lose situation at this current juncture. Again, the only politics involved is how to cast blame. That’s what we mostly see in with our current politics, some are definitely better suited to it than others. We are told everything is great, reality is that we are between a rock and hard place. A truth withheld is tantamount to a lie. Politics has become blaming the other side and withholding truths for the sole objective of power that benefits a very small contingency of the electorate.

    Getting out between a rock and a hard place requires a lot of grease (capital) which the global economy is out of, or a very large hammer. Large hammers inflict a lot of collateral damage!

    Some prefer to practice dirty politics. lol

  11. Gosh golly, folks – if you don’t like Mark’s comments, don’t read them!

    Frankly I can’t get over the colossal brain cramp affliction of analyzing domestic navel lint issues as Chinese President-for-life Xi positions the ultimate oxymoron, a capitalist police state, for global supremacy.

    Billionaire Paul Allen’s passing offers a moment for retrospection. The price of time becomes invaluable at the end?

  12. Oh no, not another lying Leftist…unh I mean democrat. That lying,lily white Senator from Vermont, (w/less than 1/1000th Native American blood) even had Univ. of Pennsylvania change her background vitals in univ. publications. Harvard even went so far as to tout publicly her Indian heritage. Too bad she didnt go to Dartmouth, they would have made here prove it. Dartmouth education is cheap..if you can get in and are of Native American heritage.
    It appears as though EVERYTHING coming from the Clintons & DNC is make believe, made up, false information.
    CBS SF is reporting people leaving bay area highest level in years. UC Berkley statewide poll recently had 56% of respondents say they considered moving due to housing costs. This is 1st time in ages the number of people leaving outnumbers the people coming in. The kicker, the real “proof in the pudding” is San Fran has far and away the highest level/numbers of complaints DAILY of Fecal Matter on the sidewalks and in the streets, both human and animal than any other city in America. Yeah another first for Frisco.
    The family(mothers side) came over 3 generations ago from Donnegal, Ireland. He had no choice, family raised/pooled money and sent his soon to be locked up ass over to US via Rikers Island..Legally. Illegal Aliens are just that – law breakers, there first act upon sneaking in to US is to break the LAW! Break the Law. When U break the law, you are a Criminal, its really that simple.
    Great uncle used to tell stories about when they were raising/building a new church (catholic) in Philly, they would hold a brick THROWING contest. The highest throw won, and that is the height they set the windows, think about that. My accused Irish ancestor and later on his brother went from a toy store,delivering ice and digging ditches, to eventually building a large construction co that built almost all of sewers and bridges in Philly.
    I was raised to know life was hard,Nothing came for free and if there was anything I wanted I would have earn it. I learned to beg borrow and steal, seemed easier..was NOT, hence enlistment in USN. Raised my kids the same way, you gotz to earn it. The ten year old would beg me for the new hockey stick, it cost $125 14 years ago. Told ten year old to go pound,lil bastard would not relent. Finally tell 10 yr old if he can hit the crossbar with a Slapshot from the Top of the face-off circle I would buy it for him immediately. Needless to say he took like a thousand shots at that net, never did hit the cross bar. Yes I did breakdown and buy the stick for him when they made the playoffs, dont know lesson he learned from all that but it sure was a ton of fun!

  13. Hey George,

    Marijuana becomes legal tomorrow here in Canada. Doobies all around at midnight.

    Don’t worry, be happy.

  14. p.s. Sept 3 to Oct 28th is exactly 55 days, NOT after Thanksgiving, and YES, right before the elections!!!

    Skyscrapers and skirts indicate market peaks:

    Skyscraper indicator for Bull Markets:
    https://www.socionomics.net/2015/07/qa-part-1-peter-kendall-on-why-his-walking-tour-of-wall-street-will-be-powerful/

    Same thing happening in China:
    https://www.socionomics.net/?s=skyscraper

    https://www.socionomics.net/2015/02/alan-hall-how-is-a-bear-market-house-different-from-a-bull-market-house/

    Skirts and fashion indicators:
    https://www.socionomics.net/?s=skirts

  15. “What hasn’t been clear is just how things will work out…”

    Has it ever? ;-) Why not go with any MA (of your choice!!) cobined w/dicipline, though it may run contra to ‘your other business model.’ You’re too smart for your own god. Speaking from experience.

  16. The issue with the stock market is the same issue with dark money in politics, you don’t know the real intentions of the money behind the investments. The results, can be volatile.

  17. To George: I too will apologize for for causing so much conspiratorial ruckus on your platform. I am not sure if I am being insulted in some weird way by being called a john…aka a toilet or a prostitutes client…or if he really thinks my name is John. Either way, I am cool with it.

    As you know, I have a ton of respect for you and been a long, long time follower, back in the day when the only way we could contribute to your blog was by emailing you in hopes that you would reprint part of our email…which you did with me more than a few times.

    What I like about Urban and Peoplenomics is the ability to be ourselves and express our opinions. Sometimes we agree…other times we don’t. It’s only human.

    • Mark..I personally like your posts..I am at the opposite end of the economic scale of society. This being said I only see things from the bottom looking up. From your posts I have the rare opportunity to see things from the top looking down. So please keep posting your opinions on whatever subject. Even if I disagree with them from time to time I keep an open mind for any new perspectives..your viewpoint is truly valued and appreciated.

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