I Did Say “Holding Cash” Right?

I got a chuckle out of a note from Bullish Bob Bagley (a real broker) who sent me a reminder this morning “...it’s also a full moon!”  Well, yeah, there is that…  Chuckles mean something on days like this when economics is pretty serious.

On the other hand, I told you we were in cash and I event went to far as to explain on the Peoplenomics side why I expect there will be  a rally toward the close today.  Our real direction for coming months, then, will be decided with the Monday open.

Remember,  crash data suggests a massive decline around March 22 if we don’t get a new all-time high.  Based on the futures this morning, and the calendar, we need to gain on average 172 Dow points per day in the next 13-days of trading or the March 22 crash possibility begins to look sadly possible.  (This is not financial advice…just financial commentary by a nutjob in the woods…who has been in cash.)

(Continues below)


Both the 1929 and the 1928 scenarios (representing the left shoulder of ’29 on the way up and the right shoulder (on the way down) are predicting up today.  Monday, if we go up, then ’28 case solidifies a bit, but if not, ’29 looks more in play – depending on whether you go by charts or my new Boolean Truth approach.

So back to point:  Long discussion of the economics of all this in the Coping section.  Peoplenomics tomorrow will have all the charts. So other than breakfast, not sure what to say.

We will likely open down (250), with a nice snapback rally – so look for some high cred talking head to say what a sage move the imposition of tariffs is.  When that comes out, I may go long to scalp some lunch money.  Guy’s gotta each, you know.

This morning we place the odds of higher highs ahead at 48% while the chance of 1929 being here NOW is around 68% with a Depression Here and Now around 58.6% – and that’s if we close up.  Monday could be decisive.

Meantime, might want to read A history of the Trump slump.

All About Keeping You Distracted

Spring storms are nothing new.  But see how CNN is playing up the weather?  “The nor’easter hammering the East Coast could become a ‘bomb cyclone’”  Bomb cyclone?  Spare me.

On the other hand, SoCal mudslide evacs are a serious deal.

The real stories (other than the Mueller Circus may indict even more unprosecutable Russians) is Devin Nunes has a deadline of this afternoon (2 PM going from memory) for more Clinton data for the House Intel committee.  More background “FBI in Internal Feud Over Hillary Clinton Probe — Laptop may contain thousands of messages sent to or from Mrs. Clinton’s private server…

Which is why we don’t rule out a “mass something” this weekend, especially in Houston where a call for “crisis actors” went out a couple of weeks back.  Medical gig and a thousand bucks per actor – which ain’t bad bread if the ad was real.

Any REAL news on the House Intel front will require a good distraction, eh?  Medicalish, Biggish, Texish, This weekend thru Monday/Tuesday is the likely window.  Go crisis actors!

BTW Where’s Mueller on Andrew McCabe, Ex-Deputy Director of FBI, Will Be Faulted for Leaks?  (We think the answer is nowhere.  Gee, look surprised, da?)

So be ready for mostly useless things today:  Non-stop Trump-bashing for the steel and aluminum tariffs (Electrolux to put $250 million U.S. investment on hold over tariffs, for example) plus an almost endless supply of unbearably useless filler stories.  Try these on fer size:

Oscar party appetizers: 9 fancy hors d’oeuvres to serve at your Academy Awards soiree.  Really?  Academy party?  In Fly-over country?  Sometimes I swear it’s like America is surrounded by foreign countries on both coasts.

Michelle Obama wants to create ‘thousands of mes’ — and she’s not interested in running for president.”  Hmmm…prayer works on this last point…

5’11” player called ‘too short’ for NFL.  Yeah – that’s MY excuse for not making $20-million a season.

Australia Is Still Waiting for the U.S. to Fulfill Its Pledge to Accept Refugees.  (Note to D. Trump: Please keep them waiting. Thanks.)

And oh yes, The Woman Who Wants to Reinvent the Weinstein Company Is About to Buy Its Assets.  Yeah, that’ll help Hollywood – you bet.

From the BBC:  Sexual assault: Can wearable gadgets ward off attackers?  Um…mean like a chastity belt?  (If not, put me down as the inventor of the crotchless Taser...)

This is big too: California town can fine you for using your cell phone while you walk.  Call 9/11 and report yourself loop notwithstanding.

See what I mean?  Distractions…plenty of emotional hooks to get you all worked up.

Our advice? Screw it. Don’t bother.  Get on with life.  Gather up assets and you’ll find people don’t have as much sway over you.

Flee the city,  live in the woods, and who cares about this kind of stuff?

Silly Mr. Ure.

He’s going to make breakfast now.  After getting up at 2:30 AM to write the long economics ep[istle in  the Coping section, it’s time to gather sustenance and move on to tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.

Or nap.

Even a good story about Bitcoin’s Plunge in Volume Stirs Questions About Its Usage may not be able to keep me awake much longer…not with BTC’s holding around $10,976.

Back Monday, then?


I Did Say “Holding Cash” Right? — 41 Comments

  1. “Weimar Republic post World War I”

    Considering this concept.
    For us.. And I am assuming we are the average.

    Income didn’t increase. No raise yet this year.
    But.. Auto expenses are up. (Seen the price of a car nowadays)
    And insurances all

    • Increased. We got notice that cable and internet up. Five percent, food up two percent, water sewer up twenty five percent, today we received our electric bill notice its going up 14 percent in May. Garbage and waste removal up ten percent.
      All together total increases will top two hundred a month. Income stayed the same.
      Being a bottom feeder wage wise. Where do you cut expenses. Now consider one in three receive federal assistance. Food stamps heating daycare and the EIC tax refund.
      If our expenses are going up most employers to keep up with the same increases are cutting hours.
      I totally see the k wave collapse. The return of one of the worst catastrophic depressions. Its like an industry send your money outside your community and pretty soon your community starts to devour itself (Detroit Pittsburg etc.) now if I have to cut spending so does everyone else. Economy will survive as long as plastic holds out. Then wham…

  2. Pay off all of your debts then sit back and watch the fun.quite a few Cities now have become
    trash centerals with the denizens on the loose.

  3. Won my first ebay auction for 90% junk silver US coins. 4 Roosevelt dimes, 4 mercury dimes, 1 barber dime, 3 Washington quarters, & 1 Walking Liberty half dollar. A total of $2.15 face value. Silver value of the coins is $25.80 & paid $29.84. A 16% premium over the silver value of the coins. So I paid $19.13 per oz. Current silver price is $16.49.

    I have no idea if this was a good value, but wanted to get my first auction done. I may sell the Walking Liberty $.50 on ebay to see what I can get.

    • My opinion is this.
      For decades the puppet masters have manipulated counties to play one against the other. Start and continue wars all for the benefit to take what they want.
      They manipulate the markets control the hubs of finance and currency’s around the globe. Governments more than willing to dance to their tunes.
      Through the bombardment of their messages they eventually sway the general public to believe what they are saying. (Heard anything negative about trump lately. ) players to their tunes are pretty much exempt from any actions or negative media or officials acting on those issues.
      Now take North Korea.. he spouted his intent to take it to the puppet masters back yard. I have a strong belief that Putin is saying the same thing.
      We are in what eighty countries..https://www.thenation.com/article/how-many-wars-is-the-us-really-fighting/
      Russia is in what… in four.. each of whom asked or their help.
      It wouldn’t surprise me to see China demonstrating a show of force either.
      If it’s obvious to me a no name honyacker from nowhere that the USA through the greed of the masters has placed themselves in a pretty precarious position.
      We are no longer the industrial nation. We are dependent on the very country’s we openly show contempt for, for our manufacturing needs. We have dumbed down our youth put all our debt on the backs of our laborers. The health of our country is at stake to. Lifesaving drugs our Iv solutions medications are all produced elsewhere . The medical industry has placed itself beyond the affordability of the average man. I having gone to the doctor three times this winter have spent three tenths of the price of a new tesla. One tenth the cost of a new home or two expense paid trips around the globe.
      How much can the laborers afford.we have by our own greed taken ourselves out of the race. It is in my opinion them showing the puppet masters that they now can and will take it to their own backyards if the puppet masters continue the grab and go techniques they are accustomed to.

  4. George, Coast to Coast AM broke some news about a letter hidden somewhere in the White House reportedly hand written by Nixon. It was something he did right before he resigned. The letter explains the ET connection and I guess Nixon wanted to do something important from the grave! We shall see what happens. If the letter exists will it be deep sixed as usual or will it see the light of day? It might be a good diversion as the White House struggles with chaos… I can already see the tweets……..

  5. Just a thought: Big Al and I have discussed this by ourselves, using Birmingham’s debt debacle as an example and relating foreign lawsuits against some of the notorious banksters.

    95% of the derivatives contracts of the 90’s and 00’s are held by the 5 biggest “too big t fails”. Which means, when the time is ripe, THEY MUST FAIL. Instant Jubilee!!!

    Just a thought.

    Art In Huntsville

  6. Speaking of cash…..”As of this morning, the US Debt to the Penny (reported by the Treasury Department) was $20.885-trillion dollars.”
    Question for you George…do you think this includes the $21 Trillion the fedgov can’t account for, and if no how can they just not include money already spent by some agency for some thing?

    • Well, that’s only a good start. There is a lot of this “off budget” stuff but the real horror from an accounting standpoint is that the bigger gorilla in the corner is the accumulated and due debt on the acknowledged federal budget. They don’t talk about it, but the on books number if you talk principal and interest is on the order of $65 trillion.
      Of course, the pols gloss this over the same way real estate people say you’re buying a house for $100,000 but when in fact with P&I it comes out close to three times that over 30 years.
      My, ain’t accounting fun?

      • Take weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly data, add quarterly, yearly, 10-year, and occasionally 20-year and 30-year projections or “runouts,” throw ’em in a big bowl and turn the mixer on. Add a pinch of new data and sample (and revise) the mix every few weeks, preferably by dumping as many raw numbers as possible. If’fn ya can’t give people the skinny, baffle ’em with bullsh!t — works every time.

        I know very few people who can fathom the difference between “debt,” “deficit,” “GDP,” and “budget,” the way the terms are presented by the media. Throw in “estimates,” “projections,” and “revisions,” and I’d suspect even some industry professionals go into irrevocable dummy mode…

      • On doctor Phil the other day he addressed the rising issues of sugar daddy’s and sugar babies. There was some screaming prostitution..( excuse me a prostitute would make more) what astounds me is no one got it.. five grand towards books for an hour a week in school loans alone would over a thirty year period amount to what.. same as a credit card fifteen grand for every grand borrowed easily add up to a fifty thousand dollar savings. There is a reason there’s a couple hundred thousand college girls doing this. And more in cities with government installations and larger named colleges.

  7. I have always thought that tariffs were a good idea to get our manufacturing back to work. I do think that Trump should have phased the tariffs in to give manufacturers time to ramp up. Now our U.S. Manufacturers will be overwhelmed, orders and projects delayed, prices raised. I know this as I work for a construction company and we are scrambling.

    • “tariffs”

      If people don’t think U.S. auto workers or steel workers or cash register jockeys are paid enough, they are free to tip them. Me, you and the others should not be forced into paying more.

      Some people site ‘dumping’. Why wouldn’t a person want to buy a product which is being sold at below cost? I bet if gold was being ‘dumped’ on the market at below cost people would buy. Why shouldn’t that be the same for aluminum? (O/T – some could say Au is being dumped do to “paper gold”.)

      Separately, instead of tariffs, consider subsidies as being the problem.

      A complaint of employers is healthcare cost.

      Heath insurance wouldn’t cost so much if

      1. People weren’t afraid of dying.
      2. If opting out from this realm (assisted suicide) was available.
      3. Government didn’t ‘make-up’ the difference for people who can’t ‘afford’ health insurance. It’s becasue of Government ‘making up the difference’ that eventually we all get priced out of the market without a subsidy.

      “If” GM had been allowed to actually fail – American cars would be much cheaper. Sure, a lot of people would have been ‘hurt’ but only the ‘unsustainable’.

      Instead, GM was bailed out – by everyone – and car notes were extended out to 72, 84 and now 96 months. (I consider the extension of car notes collusion.) Anyway, becasue the ‘stupid’ people are willing to finance a new car for 96 months, we all have to pay that retail sticker price because if we don’t buy, the next guy/gal will finance.

      And to add insult, many businesses have agreements in place with the banks preventing ‘cash discounts’ – more collusion – becasue inversely, the merchant is forcing the person who finances ‘to pay more’.

      Same with mattresses – is a new mattress really ‘worth’ $1,500 or does the market bear $1,500 becasue the others are financing for 10 years?

      Now, thinking about the U.S steel industry. The programs put into place by the “Greatest Generation” BK’d the country.

      If Trump does get a tariff in place, do people really believe that after a few years U.S. manufactures won’t raise their prices by the same amount as the tariff??

      What am I missing?

      • Make up the difference.. industry is actually forcing their employees to get federal assistance. My daughters sister in law who is in management of a corporation was telling her of all the perks she got. Condominiums to travel to for their vacations, large bonuses and gifts from the company. Expense paid trips and dinners out at posh clubs and restaurants, memberships at clubs all paid for or paid for in part by the company.
        Well one day my daughter was saying she was going to try to get a job with the company. I had to tell her. Be careful what you wish for. Benefits like that.. ( oh company paid family healthcare insurance) are only for the management staff..

  8. When imposing the tariffs’ I believe Trump made a statement about re invigorating the aluminum and steel industry. Sounds like a good idea to me considering we may be going to war with our current provider. ( and it may produce some good paying jobs.)

  9. The comments section for “America loses hope” was missing so I will put my comment here. As a longshoreman at the Port of Portland in 1980, I was part of our opening trade with China as we unloaded the FIRST Chinese ships to the US.We were able to see how backwards China was in that they HAND stowed the cargo and had few finished goods in their shipment, even the brooms on the ship were hand made. Fast forward to today China has surpassed the US in almost every way from economics to the military, the US is a hollowed out shell of what it once was. The decicisions and everything in China is owned and operated by the PLA( people’s liberation army), they have used our own greed and lack of foresight to strip our country of it”s manufacturing base, our technological expertise and our wealth. What ever Trump does will not be the cause of our troubles as it goes way back, but it is too little too late.

    • Mike, Great comment here today.
      May I restate it this way: A large percentage of every US dollar spent on goods “Made in China” will go the PLA,the Peoples Liberation Army of China. We are paying for the weapons China will one day be use against US. Your purchase large and small of “Made in China” goods strengthens the military of China.


    • This is the first of your posts that I can completely agree with!
      In August 1981 I happened on an article by Richard Maybury that quoted an article by Rockerfeller’s Trilateral Commission (TLC) in which they called for the “de-industrialization of the United States of America”. I didn’t believe then that this was possible so I dismissed it. BIG MISTAKE.
      All of this goes ‘way back’ to the assassination of JFK. Oliver Stone was absolutely right when he said that the JFK assassination was a coup.
      LBJ, expands the Vietnamese war (50,000+ of our soldiers killed).
      LBJ, creates the “Great Society” (cost as much as our present federal debt).
      Nixon, two govt debt defaults, total debasement of our currency, overtures to China for the CFR.
      G. Ford, rewarded as VP for his Warren Commission participation to cover-up the JFK assassination.
      Jimmy Carter, not enough time to comment.
      RWR, forced to choose GHW Bush as VP who took over after the assassination attempt of RWR.
      (for the history of the Bushes see: http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/esp_sociopol_bush19.htm).
      W. Clinton, NAFTA, WTO, Vince Foster, I can’t go on…

      • Keep going 911, inside job, continuing illegal wars to main, kill, and murder millions of people and our own citizens under Bush 2, and indebting the nation to the tune of trillions. Shutting coal mines under Obama to take us back to energy use of 1978, open borders under Obama in lockstep with EU open borders and financing that invasion on the backs of the taxpayers. The UN replacement population agenda in full swing. Looking at it all in a sweeping 36 year look back, one can see the destruction full throttle.

  10. Where to go to avoid the worst? I doubt there is such a place. And, I have virtually no options anyway so I shall stay where I am and surf the waves as best I can. I am sure we all will be surprised by unexpected events and that even the best prepared, like our dear George, will have to do some quick dancing too.

  11. “What I see being revealed in Trump is a man who, while brilliant in tactical implementations, may fall short in longer-term strategic thinking.”

    Ha, ha. Aren’t you the kind one. This must be a league where everyone gets a trophy.

    Simple. When you vote for a clown, you get a circus. When you vote for the party of ‘Borrow and Spend,’ you explode the national debt. Mike.

    • I think his long term planning is spot on..he’s doing a carter.. He assumed he’d have a congress that would see his plan and work with him to make America the great industrial country it once was.
      Where he fell short is he underestimated the hold that the puppet masters really have on our congress and their inability to actually cone together for the benefit of the American voters that keeps putting them in office.

  12. The steel/aluminum tarried was hastily put together and had little to no support in Congress or with Trumps economic advisors….especially Gary Cohn. It was a distraction. Trump needs and wanted the conversation to change from his flailing control of his administration. His inner circle is all but gone. His poll numbers sinking faster than a submarine with screen doors. He is digging deep for a counter active WIN of any kind to fight off the inevitable result of his arch enemy…Robert Mueller.

    First, Mueller is not fishing anymore. His has hooked his prize catch and he is slowly but surely reeling it in. Kushner’s Security downgrade is lower the the White House stenographer, Hope Hicks quick departure is either an attempt to save herself from further damage or Trumps attempt to save her from further damage…they were tied to the hip for several years. Ivanka’s security clearance is also on hold…(it’s been over a year). Sessions is fed up and ready to talk. Rosenstein can’t control the drool and is counting the days til indictment. Gary Cohn has had it…H.R. McMaster may be on his way out, Rob Porter was a disaster, Gen. Kelly is getting roasted and throwing up his hands in frustration. Even former communications guru, Anthony Scaramucci, not one to mince words is starting to spout about the “Terrible morale” in the White House and that More departures are coming. I am sure there are.

    Now a big part of Trumps base is slamming him on his “Take the guns first and due process later” comment and his tariffs, and actually, he would rather hear that, and shift the talk on policy then have to hear the potential embarrassment of a Mueller charge. Stay tuned.

    • “Take the guns first and due process later”. I already know Trump will be left holding the bag. When the economy really tanks and sh!t hits the fan, he will be blamed for it. And anyone who is in the know, knows that it was the Fed policy under Bush and Obama that created the housing bubble and then the cash bubble. Still just as Trump is taking credit for the economy boom, he will be blamed for its demise.

      I did vote for him. Because the alternative was way worse. His language reflects a mentality. His language used, “Take the guns first and due process later” is setting the stage for what is to come. No president even Obama ever said “take the guns”. It’s a constitutional attack by a sitting president.

      If you listen to what’s really going on, you can see the future.

  13. Interesting articles this morning Thanks Mr A M early. Enjoy the nap as the wheels turn

  14. No comments on your coping section so will comment here. When interest rates go to zero/negative, you no longer have an economic system. It amazes me how many intelligent people keep acting like one still exists. Add to that quantative easing, issuers of currency buying debt denominated in that currency, and you are way the hell off the (economic) rails. If you apply fundamentals to the markets, they mean nothing, because these days markets run on perceptions, not fundamentals. The same perceptions that get people into a casino thinking they might win.

    Americans think that the USA dollar is a currency. It is not. It is a weapon to promote imperialism outside the country, and a tool for suppressing the citizens inside the country. Ask yourself, if they can print all the money they want (no debt ceiling), why does the government bother collecting taxes?

    You can try like hell to treat the dollar like a currency, but it’s like sitting in a rocking chair, gives you something to do, but doesn’t get you very far. Just because people outside the country have the perception it has value does not mean that it does.

    If you take all the economists in the world, and lay them end to end, you would never reach a conclusion.

    Just label me BA Economics 1971, MBA 1980.

    • How is the equadorian sucre doing? It must really rile you to still have to use the USD as legal tender in equador.

  15. The US was already gets more than 25% off Canadian steel because of the Currency exchange. America was never worried about the north, just the cheap Chinese steal.The sad thing is Trump only used Chinese Steele when building his real estate portfolio.

  16. Jorge

    I think in my old age, I have more in common with the birds and beasts of the field than a bunch of obnoxious city folk !!

    • Has nothing to do with age, oqwazy! It has to do with common sense.
      If you spend more than 5-minutes a day on FB, you’re likely mad. Since you prolly dont’…ergo it follows that you would enjoy the real reality..

  17. Expect a push upward to balance the markets against the options derivatives. Whole other week to get to the BLS jobs numbers for February. I would expect some data “pumping” there to help things out.

    The steel tariff thing is most-hurtful to Canada, which is silly for us to do. We don’t want Mounties invading from the North in retaliation. The horse poop scatter from all that would just help with crop fertilization here.

    • Don’t worry friend. We won’t send the Mounties after you but wait until you see the tariff on Maple Syrup!

      P.S. George, you have to get some sleep. At your age, too much of this 2:30 am stuff will kill you.

      • I was asking spirit world if it if it if he was having sex at 2:30 in the morning and they said that’s not ethical so I guess we can’t talk about that so anyway but as long as he’s doing good and has a smile on his face. Whippy. Love can be expressed in the whole bunch of different ways but I love the way George expresses himself he’s like he’s like BUSINESS MATH that’s who he is

      • I’m not doing this no more I’m going to die from laughing too hard lots of laughs

    • The best thing about the best thing about communicating to people and connecting is where I was laugh and enjoy a joke on each other as in that video that I published yeah people sit around and laugh and play jokes on each other that’s part of what keeps us alive that’s part of what makes part of the community that we live in that was surviving and the people we know we need that connection to be able to express our feelings to each other instead of having kids that are under drug influences with no parents because they have left their died what we need is this community that takes those in those kids and those old people we’re getting ready to die we need that Community where we have The Young and the all and thus the spring going down through the middle of their community and they learned to live with Mother Nature