I got a chuckle out of a note from Bullish Bob Bagley (a real broker) who sent me a reminder this morning “...it’s also a full moon!” Well, yeah, there is that… Chuckles mean something on days like this when economics is pretty serious.
On the other hand, I told you we were in cash and I event went to far as to explain on the Peoplenomics side why I expect there will be a rally toward the close today. Our real direction for coming months, then, will be decided with the Monday open.
Remember, crash data suggests a massive decline around March 22 if we don’t get a new all-time high. Based on the futures this morning, and the calendar, we need to gain on average 172 Dow points per day in the next 13-days of trading or the March 22 crash possibility begins to look sadly possible. (This is not financial advice…just financial commentary by a nutjob in the woods…who has been in cash.)
Both the 1929 and the 1928 scenarios (representing the left shoulder of ’29 on the way up and the right shoulder (on the way down) are predicting up today. Monday, if we go up, then ’28 case solidifies a bit, but if not, ’29 looks more in play – depending on whether you go by charts or my new Boolean Truth approach.
So back to point: Long discussion of the economics of all this in the Coping section. Peoplenomics tomorrow will have all the charts. So other than breakfast, not sure what to say.
We will likely open down (250), with a nice snapback rally – so look for some high cred talking head to say what a sage move the imposition of tariffs is. When that comes out, I may go long to scalp some lunch money. Guy’s gotta each, you know.
This morning we place the odds of higher highs ahead at 48% while the chance of 1929 being here NOW is around 68% with a Depression Here and Now around 58.6% – and that’s if we close up. Monday could be decisive.
Meantime, might want to read A history of the Trump slump.
All About Keeping You Distracted
Spring storms are nothing new. But see how CNN is playing up the weather? “The nor’easter hammering the East Coast could become a ‘bomb cyclone’” Bomb cyclone? Spare me.
On the other hand, SoCal mudslide evacs are a serious deal.
The real stories (other than the Mueller Circus may indict even more unprosecutable Russians) is Devin Nunes has a deadline of this afternoon (2 PM going from memory) for more Clinton data for the House Intel committee. More background “FBI in Internal Feud Over Hillary Clinton Probe — Laptop may contain thousands of messages sent to or from Mrs. Clinton’s private server…”
Which is why we don’t rule out a “mass something” this weekend, especially in Houston where a call for “crisis actors” went out a couple of weeks back. Medical gig and a thousand bucks per actor – which ain’t bad bread if the ad was real.
Any REAL news on the House Intel front will require a good distraction, eh? Medicalish, Biggish, Texish, This weekend thru Monday/Tuesday is the likely window. Go crisis actors!
BTW Where’s Mueller on Andrew McCabe, Ex-Deputy Director of FBI, Will Be Faulted for Leaks? (We think the answer is nowhere. Gee, look surprised, da?)
So be ready for mostly useless things today: Non-stop Trump-bashing for the steel and aluminum tariffs (Electrolux to put $250 million U.S. investment on hold over tariffs, for example) plus an almost endless supply of unbearably useless filler stories. Try these on fer size:
Oscar party appetizers: 9 fancy hors d’oeuvres to serve at your Academy Awards soiree. Really? Academy party? In Fly-over country? Sometimes I swear it’s like America is surrounded by foreign countries on both coasts.
“Michelle Obama wants to create ‘thousands of mes’ — and she’s not interested in running for president.” Hmmm…prayer works on this last point…
5’11” player called ‘too short’ for NFL. Yeah – that’s MY excuse for not making $20-million a season.
Australia Is Still Waiting for the U.S. to Fulfill Its Pledge to Accept Refugees. (Note to D. Trump: Please keep them waiting. Thanks.)
And oh yes, The Woman Who Wants to Reinvent the Weinstein Company Is About to Buy Its Assets. Yeah, that’ll help Hollywood – you bet.
From the BBC: Sexual assault: Can wearable gadgets ward off attackers? Um…mean like a chastity belt? (If not, put me down as the inventor of the crotchless Taser...)
This is big too: California town can fine you for using your cell phone while you walk. Call 9/11 and report yourself loop notwithstanding.
See what I mean? Distractions…plenty of emotional hooks to get you all worked up.
Our advice? Screw it. Don’t bother. Get on with life. Gather up assets and you’ll find people don’t have as much sway over you.
Flee the city, live in the woods, and who cares about this kind of stuff?
Silly Mr. Ure.
He’s going to make breakfast now. After getting up at 2:30 AM to write the long economics ep[istle in the Coping section, it’s time to gather sustenance and move on to tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.
Even a good story about Bitcoin’s Plunge in Volume Stirs Questions About Its Usage may not be able to keep me awake much longer…not with BTC’s holding around $10,976.
Back Monday, then?