Santa “Slayed” or BTFD? Plus EU Collapsing

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Here we go, once again, wondering about possible market action in the short-term.

With the early futures down two hunsky’s, I put in a pseudo-number into our Aggregate Index to estimate what might evolve in today’s action:

See that roughly sketched-in trend channel?  You got that?  See how we MIGHT today, or tomorrow come down with a possible iv (4th) Elliott wave to smack the ascending trend line?  (Peoplenomics  subscribers know how to draw and read these, since we’ve explained theory was we’ve evolved this “outer channel” stuff…)

If it works out, we might get interested in riding the fifth wave up which could be violently up (maybe based on end of the Trade War, or something really globally positive) in which case mid-January would be the last chance for bulls to convert to bears.  OR, and this can’t be discounted either:  We might see a “complex iv” develop that could work sideways into next February or March and leave the final blow-off for May, or so.

We just don’t know.

But, when markets are as nutty as they are, it makes getting out of bed worthwhile.  It’s like going to a 50-year long football game, played for about 220 days a year and being able to call in plays.  Except, unlike Fantasy Football, there’s no field:  Just a scoreboard which seems pretty random, at times.

48 to Wait

Although my natural inclination would be to get wildly bullish as soon as that lower trend line is hit on the close (remember, the chart above is futures pricing for today’s drop), I’ve seen enough dough go “Poof!” from being too anxious.  Besides, the Wave 4 could be a long, complex sideways move…

Also, if we drop (and close) for a couple of days below that right-side support level, we could drop even further.  How far?  Well there are targets down as low as the 1540 S&P level.  Those come with an  economic depression as a bonus.

A couple of events tomorrow will drive the market and may give us a glimpse of what’s to come.  Tomorrow morning there’s the ADP jobs report.  If strong, that’d be a good thing.  If weak?  Not so much.  BTFD (*buy the freakin dips) on the close today?  Depends on your wallet and testosterone levels, prolly.

Tomorrow there’s the Shifty Schiff Circus.  Democrats will have three shysters double-talking legal mumbo to present their “case.”  The republicans will have one.  If that sounds a bit crooked, remember this is a political trial and fairness, facts, and justice have absolutely nothing to do with the outcome.  Why, there’s not even an agenda.  No discovery, biased media, and limited cross…  foregone conclusion, as we score it.

Europe is Crumbling

Donald Trump is in Europe today for the NATO summit, and as a New York Times reports “President Trump said a warning from President Emmanuel Macron of France that Europe could no longer assume support from the United States was “a very dangerous statement.”

The Collapse of Europe is not something most people see coming – at least yet.  But let’s line up some data points and see, shall we?

  • The “Euro” currency is not universal.  As my consigliere points out, when you look at Euro notes, they are country-specific.
  • This means the ECB (their spin on a real central bank) is really quite week.
  • Looking for a way to “make up creds” the European Union this last summer threw-in with the climate change cons in order to invent “EU Green Bonds.”  The premise is a notion called “sustainable finance” that would be harmonious with climate change.  We’ll report deeper  Saturday on the Peoplenomics side on how this will fail as it adds another chapter to my book “The 100-Year Toaster.“
  • Of course, once you can get your mits on the money, you can eventually whangle into taxing…and that means power – which is what the Euro-pricks are all about.
  • Since there’s power vested (by dumb Europeans) in the EU, France’s Macron has designs on that power.  The chance is he wants to head up the EU at some point.  But, as an op-ed from Bloomberg wonders, “Why would Europe want that?”

Keep the popcorn ready:  Europeans were screwed by the EU with open borders that started the Muslim Reconquest of Europe.  As social costs of that boner scream skyward, individual countries will look to the EU Nanny-State for help.  Which will be wrapped up in climate bonds and “sustainable economics” mumbo-jumbo.  The dim-witted serfs on the Continent will suck it up; having little taste for freedom and independence of thought.

This is not “politically correct” thinking, of course.  It’s just factual and an observation of cause and effect.  Political correctness is nothing more than propaganda from whoever, though we assume you know that scam, already.

Bottom Line:  It’s a longer-range prediction, but I reckon Europe will collapse within five-years, possibly 10 tops.

As my consigliere  pointed out, there’s just too much social friction in Europe, even today.  “In Germany, people live to work which in France, people work to live…”  If the EU were a marriage, that mindset-differential would end up on a court do docket sometime.

The EU has been one policy failure after another.  There’s been talk since 2017 about an EU mega-army to supercede NATO. Put a Frenchman like Macron in charge of that, phony finance scams and “green bonds” and we gotta wonder: What could possibly go wrong?”

In the Shorts…

Snooze or news, that’s always the question, ain’t it?

Russia is investing more in the Arctic says the Moscow Times in Rosatom Deal to Boost Russia’s Arctic Infrastructure.

How many Inches? Stubborn storm bringing heavy snow to parts of Northeast to linger at least another day.

Your home is still your best investment, for most people, even when the markets sometimes have a one or two year run.  See CoreLogic Reports October Home Prices Increased by 3.5% Year Over Year.   Still, real estate didn’t keep up with M2 money which is up 6.3% year-on-year as of the latest H.6 money stocks report…

Off to the chow line…

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

27 thoughts on “Santa “Slayed” or BTFD? Plus EU Collapsing”

  1. “Your home is still your best investment”

    You know that is what I always had thought to.. now with the advances of expenses.. I have been re-evaluating whether or not that is so true.. most people end up having to dump their homes and give the money for their end days at the retirement home or for medical..
    and the excess expenses surrounding a home can easily be saved rather than spent by living in a place that can make arrangements to get those very services and repairs done on a bulk price level..

    • A small, energy-efficient low-maintenance home paid for with cash in a location with modest property taxes and low insurance cost, with easy access to moderately priced but first-class health care, and with plenty of well paying jobs within easy commuting distance is a good investment. Unfortunately, all it takes is one madman neighbor to wreck a deal you spent half a lifetime setting up. You can pick your investments, but you can’t pick your neighbors.

      • true… Here our taxes are about a third of the average ss retirement check.. the insurance takes the rest..where depending on where your at.. you could.. but it is designed so that you cannot.. George has about the lowest taxes I have ever heard of.. if I could talk the wife into moving there I would.. many of the elderly spend their winters there to.. the reason they can go over to mexico and buy their medications at a minute fraction of what it costs here..saving the money.. in a nursing home a tylenole is ten dollars plus a tablet.. so go figure.. you aren’t leaving with it.. or a quarter mill a year per person..
        I think the ones that will make it are the Amish.. and the people living in dumpsters.. the people on the street have learned to survive the harsh realities of life.. the amish work as a team..

  2. Sorry George,
    Your consigliere is wrong. Yes at the start you could see from which country euro bills came from the first letter in the serial number, but that has been done away with many years already. To prevent a run on German or Dutch bills and wanting to get rid of Greek or Italian bills in case of a financial crisis. I’m afraid it will be very difficult to dump the Euro…
    Your Dumb Dutchman

      • LOL No just… CHEAP…..
        I live in a dutch community.. where if they had planned.. by putting a quarter cost on the water bill for future developement and repairs.. then invested that money we wouldn’t be paying what they pay in the desert for water LOL… but they didn’t want to make repairs.. why fix the road we will cover it up instead.. LOL…the future is paying the price.. for their being cheap.. oh wait could you say it was going dutch…

        “go Dutch
        The phrase “going Dutch” probably originates from Dutch etiquette. In the Netherlands, it is not unusual to pay separately when dating. The Dutch were already internationally known as scrooges, and English rivalry with The Netherlands especially during the period of the Anglo-Dutch Wars gave rise to several phrases including Dutch that promote certain negative stereotypes. Examples include Dutch courage, Dutch uncle and Dutch wife. The particular stereotype associated with this usage is the idea of Dutch people as ungregarious and selfish.
        https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=go%20dutch “

  3. well you’re right george, winter started out with a bang out here in the wilds of western mass. I think we got dang near two feet. Well old man winter is getting serious with us fast this year! I was sort of hoping that long range fore cast for a mild winter was going to be right, dang!

  4. Hi George,
    -Yes, when the Euro’s free movement of workers (akin to our interstate commerce free mobility) was inundated by the mass migration triggered by the Conservatives’ dumb breaking of the Middle East (which Trump favored at the time) , . . . . well you know the rest.
    -Now that Trump’s palpable corruption is a subject best avoided, that leaves a lot space for other issues.
    -Inasmuch as the national debt is my biggest issue (and I had thought yours too), how about some analysis of the R’s exploding it (in good times no less!) for tax cuts and stock buybacks? How with their last power, the R’s choose tax cuts for the rich over immigration reform for the angry Base — showing us that the rich money wing of the R party still rules the roost over the far larger angry wing.
    -Nor any analysis of the still 40% of the Farm Belt on welfare, with the entry barriers overcome and their markets opened up elsewhere. Nor an analysis of the alternatives to a trade war.
    -Or why with each felony by Trump, we all have to hate law enforcement more and more.
    -Lots of subjects out there to address.
    Best, Mike.

    • Do trolls get time and a half on Tuesdays?
      Name one felony Trump has been convicted of…just one.
      Come on troll! You can reference a case number for us to read, right?
      (Or, you can drop into libtard spew mode and not provide it…) Talk around things and not answer ’em?

    • George, where did the 21 trillion dollars go? Interesting read by Katherine Austin Fitts and Dr. Mark Skidmore. The bandits continue to rob this country blind. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot???

      • Yes, and what about the 16+ TRILLION that was sent to the Europeon banks by “our” Federal Reserve during the 08-09 crash?
        37+ Trillion!
        Shut down the illegal Fed.
        Claw-back all of the stolen funds.
        Convert FRN’s held by US Citizens to US Notes per the Federal Reserve Act.
        Arrest, try, convict and hang all the International Banksters.

  5. Approaching my 78th birthday, I watch in disbelief as the government, personal and corporate debt load goes higher and higher.

    As a business owner, I was both a borrower and a lender. I was taught that every loan had to be paid, either by the borrower or the lender. I always paid back my loans but got stuck many times for loans I made.

    I remember one time when I was building my business, I travelled to NYC to meet for lunch with a group of wealthy financiers. They selected a very fancy restaurant in Manhattan. The food was great and the wine flowed freely. At the end of lunch I looked up and I was the only one left at the table. The bill was over $800.

    Why am I getting the same feeling again?

    • “”They selected a very fancy restaurant in Manhattan. The food was great and the wine flowed freely. At the end of lunch I looked up and I was the only one left at the table. The bill was over $800.””

      OTFLMAO…I thought I was the only one that this happened to…mind you I dont mind buying lunch..I just like it to be my idea.
      That totally reminds me of delivering pizzas I picked the wealthiest neighborhood..lol lol after two weeks I told the boss at morning meeting that I was GB oing to put in my notice. He asked why.. I said heck I cant put gas in my car lol lol everyone started to laugh . Seems they had bets on how long it took before I got smart.. wealthy people got wealthy by being the cheapest .. opm.. other peoples money.. at the grocery store the regular trend was a wealthy person walking in ordering a hundred steaks for a get together then coming in on monday to get their money back lol lol. Ask any waitress .. their more demanding and tip the least

    • “…government, personal and corporate debt load goes higher and higher.”
      How do debts get retired / paid-off?
      One must use MONEY.
      All FRN’s are loaned into circulation with interest owed. Therefore all FRN’s are DEBT.
      Money is purchasing media that has no interest attached. The only money we have are our counterfeit coins, obviously totally insufficient to make a dent.
      The 16th amendment (income tax) was passed (but not constitutionally ratified) to collect the $$ to pay the interest to the Fed. The government must continue to borrow more and more debt from the Fed just to operate, and the interest payments continue to increase, and when the rates go up…
      Since we have no money, we cannot pay off our debts!
      The only other way to retire debt is BANKRUPTCY.
      Think about it!

  8. “As social costs of that boner scream skyward…”

    G, that was the phrase of the day for me…LOLOL

  9. “See that roughly sketched-in trend channel?” Yes, it works just as well on the SPY ;-). Perha[s you could add M1, M2, or M3 on YOUR chart so folks could visualize that much of the increases were related to monetary growth, JMHO.

  10. this yellow stuff and all the scammers that push it .. the names are endless , dalio , holmes , moriarty , kern .. even bobby prechter .. 25 years and they stick it it in me for not coming around to its different this time .. oh yeah its different .. its 10 times worse than 08/09 and then it got smaShed with the red button .. do not deal in lies like the great kipling poem says .. I am sick of the deceit and staged gobbly gock .. no not me .. I will short to the bottom . everything .. I am trained technically and will act accordingly

  11. the commercials are massive short and yet every snake oil salesman says gold cures everything .. debt , depression, ridiculous real estate , mega overpriced stock , unpayable debt , dead bond markets, dead banks , pimples , impotence , baldness and anything else you want .. I would have never been involved with this 25 years ago if I knew this is the tricks they pull out in the big one.

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