Runs of Chance, Event Clustering, Inflation Tracks

by

Happy Over Easter.  Now getcher ass going and do something!

We had a perfectly delightful couple of “down time” days where many projects were moved ahead, prompting us to make some long-term decisions about our home DIYer website (Ultra-Make.com).  But more on that as we go through the day in a more orderly manner.

Losing Short Exit

To begin in the financial groove, we expected that holding a short position over the weekend carried about a 66 percent chance of being a loser. But we did it anyway: Because the payoff could have been huge.  So far, no soap.

Markets were looking like an orderly upside open with gold being up about $20-bucks earlier.  The high on FinViz had gotten up to $2,286 and even silver was looking to take a run at $25.50 (.42 high).

Different tale for Crypto, though.  Early BTC pricing was a country mile from the $71,420 notched Friday.  It was about $69.463 at writing time.

Close-in (on the Futurescope) we don’t see much other than bond auctions early, but a mid-morning Purchasing Manager flash may drive some variance into the system.

Being a market guru (someday, in my dreams, right?) we’d have to say that globalism is now operating in the vicinity of “reverse control authority.”  Since you may not have been trained by a genuine Alaska bush pilot (Damon went on to that after teaching me) the term “reverse control authority” might not be intuitive.  So let me explain how it works:

Normally, when you pull back on the yoke (or stick in a J3 Cub) the nose of the aircraft comes up. Held long enough, the aircraft will enter a stall (where laminar flow over the wings breaks up) at which point (a fair bit of time later) the nose will drop.  So, to recover from a “stall” you drop the nose, air begins to flow and a laminar flow is reestablished, lift returns.  Done in a timely manner (before the spinning field in the windscreen jumps into your lap) all’s well that ends well.

Now suppose, instead, that the aircraft is already in a partially stalled condition.  Now, we you pull the yoke (or stick in a J3) back, what happens?  The critical angle of attack (see chord line of wing and angle of attack discussion in volume 17 of Ure on Flight Dynamics) becomes instantly more acute, lift instantly takes a lunch break, and the nose is dropping like crazy even though you are pulling back to save your soul.

“What does this gibberish have to do with Markets?”

You really don’t watch the world championships of short-field bush plane landing much, do you?  I don’t know how anyone can possibly understand economics without first binging on videos from the National Short Takeoff and Landing Series | The #1 Aviation Sport in the World! (nationalstol.com).

Bottom Line: Just like in Flying, the Economy has a “control zone” where “reverse authority steps in.”

Which is happening right now.

The Fed has failed to break the back of inflation (so said the data out while markets were closed Friday).  What they SHOULD do is recognize that the economy is still climbing while on the thin edge of collapse.  (Like in a partial stall, right?)  As my consigliere reminds, though, they CAN’T (no way in hell) raise rates with an election barely seven months off.

What we will see (Bush Economist Powell at the controls now, trying for a smooth landing) will be the Fed slowly messaging between now and the end of May words to the effect “We may only do two rate reductions…”  They had been touting three.  This is how the Fed Speak will address “reverse control authority” by trying (much like our STOL colleagues) to keep the “wings flying” just enough going into the Elections.

In the meantime, though (and here we stop the flying discussion and get back to work in real-time), there are any number of “Runs of Chance” which are those “small gusts of wind” that can ruin a perfect landing.

Jobs Week is Here

Happens just after the first of each month.  Four-day major psychodrama. Begins mid-morning tomorrow with Labor’s JOLTS report.  Wednesday morning ADP Employment report. Job Cuts from Challenger Thursday, and the official numbers Friday.

Strong hiring (which is what we generally expect) will increase odds that the Fed will “hold ’em high” which means at their next FOMC meeting they might hint a bit.  Or, might come as early as a Jerome Powell speech Wednesday at the At the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum, Stanford, California.

Chance Behind Headlines

There’s a saying in aviation circles that “crashes and near-crashes happen in threes.”  While we don’t know (for sure and certain) that this is extensible into maritime accidents, we’re now two for three as Oklahoma highway reopens following shutdown after a barge hit a bridge.

If we get one more “bridgely event” we’ll be sure and mention it.  Not sure what we’ll do if it happens to run a stream to four, but we’d be inclined to order more nosh and chips because it will be a bridge party at that point.

Less than party in Baltimore, though: Crews remove first piece of Baltimore bridge wreckage from water. Meantime we saw this and wondered how the Woke would monetize the bridge incident: Moore denounces DEI blame for bridge collapse: ‘I have no time for foolishness’.

Headline Roulette

A big spin and…

We land on War!  Lebanon: Hezbollah Draws Closer To Full War With Israel With Intensified Missile Attacks, Israeli Retaliation. This as Netanyahu is slowed by a health issue:  Israeli PM Netanyahu’s hernia operation was successful, hospital says. But it may have slowed plans to take Rafah.

Where paradoxical behaviors are writ large. Are we the only ones confused by Biden sending in food to Gaza on the one hand while US Army Chief of Staff Provides IDF Chief of Staff with Recommended Operation Plan in Rafah on the other?  Somehow seems, oh, um, inefficient to roll as we are…  Then there’s Iran which is working the PR gap: Iran Calls For Intl. Probe Into “Israel’s Crimes” In Gaza Al-Shifa Hospital.

Open Border blow-back may be at hand as Rep. Don Bacon warns it’s ‘possible’ Mike Johnson could lose speakership over Ukraine aid.  Back to the familiar question: Why does Ukraine get a border and America doesn’t?

Speaking of Odessa: Moscow continues to target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.  Meantime, a similar outlook to the one we’ve been posting for weeks comes from an odd place: Elon Musk Says Loss Of Odesa, Black Sea Access A Possibility For Ukraine: ‘The Longer The War Goes On, The More Territory Russia Will Gain’.

Weird Poisoning story: Four more in food poisoning outbreak test positive for toxic acid – Focus Taiwan. Turns out this is a case of bongkrekic acid poisoning.  If you’ve never heard of it, I got through 75-years of being ignorant of it, as well.  Click and go learn: Bongkrek acid – Wikipedia. Damn – learn something new every day. Just last week my consigliere was explaining how the US grain exporting business “turns over old grain” when warehouse stocks are high and then sells it overseas….

Critically Interesting to Us

Is there a path coming (or does it already exist?) to go from a DNA sample to an A.I. face that could lead to, oh, all kinds of mischief? I mention this based on the story Face of Medieval Chinese emperor revealed through his DNA – Medievalists.net.  The answer is already YES.

Where it gets really interesting is that since this tech is “real” it could mean parents will soon be able to look at their children in advance as they age through life.

That’s not the mind-bending part, though:  Can you imagine the impacts on human mating/coupling if you could get a sample of Friday night’s hot date, run it through DNA>Reconstructor and know what your potential spouse will look like 5, 10, and even 50-years out into the future?  Not only that but only a short jump from there into having a whole healthcare outlook based on “preemptive DNA screening” which might even go into pre-ups and such.”

The mind reels, but if they can take dead man’s DNA up through reconstruction into a facial, how long until DNA_Date becomes an add-on or plugin for Tinder or Too Many Fish?  Is this what brother Musk is waiting for?

Don’t worry.  The technology isn’t here YET.  We figure a year. We have fundraising, founders stock assignment, and a few code issues to address in an app, first.

Still, novel idea, isn’t it?  If you knew your offspring were going to be ugly, would you have them?  Or, more fundamentally, if your spouse wasn’t going to age like a fine wine, would you marry?

Still, might work better than government climate change scams to bring people’s biological proclivities back under control. Just saying…

ATR: The Devil’s Water Heater Triangle.

The first on scene paramedic was one of G2’s buds in the local Fire Dept. when Elaine had her BP episode a few weeks back.  Easter Sunday, I dropped off a “thank you” for him – couple of big bottles of Screwball Whiskey.  This is a peanut-flavored hooch.

But he got something else: A couple of water heater alarms.

I had run into him a couple of Sundays back in the water heater section at Lowes.  Turns out, his water heater blew out within a couple of days of ours.  I ordered several five-packs of water alarms from Amazon – they’re cheap.  More spendy is the 10-year super battery because you’re going to forget things.

Anyway, wanting to treat all neighbors about equal, I called bubba Cale next door up the hill from us.  Offered him a couple of alarms, too.  (Cue the Twilight Zone theme):  “Shoot…mine went out just a week before D’s and Ure’s did…we just got finished with the clean-up…”

What are the odds, huh?

We’re putting alarms under everything: Hot water heater, clothes washer, under the dishwasher…

Which means (I have one another couple of neighbors) that so far, Water Heater Disease has struck 50% of the households within a half mile radius of our place.

And that really is strange.

The only question is whether it’s how statistics work, or is something else (evil) in play?  Ideas are welcome, but my wins in PowerBall and Lotto Texas don’t run like this.

Planning note 1:  I may kill the Ultra-Make.com website.  Bring it back as ShopTalk Sunday here.  People seem to miss it, and the additional cost hasn’t paid off.  Google didn’t approve the site for advertising (not enough content, followers) and I don’t have time to write as much.  So, look for home handyperson columns to return here, one of these days.  Along with more ham radio projects.

Planning note 2: Remember a good while back I told you about the issues I was having with my brokerage and TurboTax not working right? Well, spotted the error, did my filing, got my refund.  But NOW turns out that my imported data into TurboTax has changed.

After getting a $4,462 refund.

But here’s the really STRANGE part.  Rebuilt the entire return and still got the same refund – but here’s the oddest part: My trading income went up and my tax loss carryforward came down.  Really weird.

My consigliere says I should file a revised return (Form 1040-X) and in the notes explain that while my return was correct (I’d spotting the double-counting of disallowed wash sales) the “corrected” 1099-B which was sent out a week or two back did change the TL/CF worksheet going forward and a few numbers of (driven by the trading data) changes to my Schedule D.

Bet you can’t guess what I will be ruminating on this week?   How do you write “This is not balance-impacting, but underlying previously submitted worksheets have changed…”

You think writing a column here is fun? Try explaining a screwed up 1099-B in part because of a brokerage merger in the tax year…

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

60 thoughts on “Runs of Chance, Event Clustering, Inflation Tracks”

  1. Who needs DNA? When Diana and I first began seeing one another in 1980, I noticed her mother seemed quite youthful and attractive even after 5 children. She passed due to Dewey Dementia 3 years ago and I miss her greatly. Watching “The Ten Commandments” together with Diana’s family back then I thought she had an uncanny resemblance to Debra Paget. For Diana and I Watching that movie is an annual tradition for us and to this day I see that Diana like her mother is a ringer for Ms Paget. So you want to know how someone will look in the future, at least for me anyway, take a look at their mother.
    Stay safe. 73

      • totally different perspective on the trial of such historical value.
        it’s the same when you read the egyptian accounts of Moses and the Israelite slaves …
        we are taught one perspective where other perspective paints a questionable time and events .

    • see.. for me it’s the heart and soul..
      looks can be gone in the blink of an eye.. the soul goes on ..
      I was taught live is an action verb. that people first are attractive by physical appearance. but as time passes and you both work together your goals and aspirations become the depth of one.
      for Easter I read the report on the trial of Jesus that pontius Pilate wrote up and sent to emporer Claudius
      way different than what is taught

  2. George,
    You have been somewhat coy about the bridge incident. Do you believe it was an accident or intentional. The reaction from the mayor of Baltimore about DEI are really telling. Who were the harbor pilots and other pertinent information about them.

    • I appreciate the term coy – but we like to gather enough facts in order to have some basis of decision…until we get more of a read on crew and condition of the ship…unlike many on the net, we do understand how liable laws work

      • I would be rather skeptical of the DEI meme coming from some quarters. Maersk? Was it a Maersk pilot at the helm, or a harbor pilot? I’d have to side with mayor Moore until I see some real evidence presented.

        • As I understand it, with very few exceptions, the harbor pilot advises – perhaps even micromanages, but the Captain stays at the controls. The Captain SHOULD know his ship and its handling characteristics, as everyone’s safety depends on it.

          What I do know is that the ship is single engine, single screw, and even with a bow thruster, it has far less control than a twin engine, twin screw. If the main engine fails, the rudder has very little control authority. There’s no redundancy. According to Wiki, that engine is rated at around 55K BHP.

          I’m pretty sure that if/when the main channel is open and a new bridge is being built, at least one tug/escort will be required in the channel for such ships. BTW, one of the two new temporary channels is open and in use for smaller essential vessels, but daylight only.

        • (“the Captain stays at the controls. The Captain SHOULD know his ship and its handling characteristics”)

          Hmm.. the driver of a Semi truck fully loaded.. he knows how the truck works.. he drives it thousands of miles.. take a truck with duals.. double trailers.. first the LOAD has the rule.. you can slam on the brakes.. but the load continues to push the truck.. Water is similar to ICE.. lock the brakes and try to steer away.. the motion of the ocean pushes the load where it wants to go..the driver has some control over the first trailer but very little.. the second trailer he has NO control over.. on triplets.. he has no control over any of it..
          when I first started to drive.. one of the first things they told us.. was.. IF your in an accident.. try to stop but aim for the drivers door of the car your about to hit.. to try and move the truck out of the way you still kill the driver but maime the driver.. and you kill your self ..the weight of the truck is the one in control the length of the truck is the danger.. the cab is plastic but that is girder steel and seventy five tons of shit and steel is what is in control.. My guess is the captain of the boat is the the same .. he has thousands of tons of crap..the motion of the ocean and once it starts to go out of control its over.. the boats is essentially in control of itself..
          you would be shocked at how many OLD men and Kids taunt truck drivers.. for an Andy moment.. how many young women love to tease a truck driver.. by flashing them while driving..Old Men look to the right and pull out in front of the truck..truck drivers deal with crazy highway drivers all the time.. the time it takes to slow down a huge container ship.. just as hard as it is with a semi and triplets..
          once the boat is out of control there is very little that a man two hundred pounds can do to stop it.. the captain is held responsible but he isn’t in control at the point of the ship losing control..

      • Time,

        “The early days off sailing navigation were fraught with difficulty (and shipwrecks) because it was easy to “run a latitude” – you just hold the sun angle at its daily high point in the sky, and then run that compass heading for another 24 hours.

        You’d circle the globe, some known distance (which could be calculated) north or south of the equator.

        The problem was, you’d never know exactly where you were East-West. That’s how you run into things. Like reefs and islands.

        For this, you needed meridians of longitude (east-westness). ”

        March 10, 2024
        George Ure.

        i noticed. as soon as i saw the ship miss its “(east-westness)”, i remembered exaclty what you wrote.

  3. Yo G,

    can you tell Dr Ben Casey to take a back seat ?

    Calling Doctor Copper, hello ? What did U say, wait come again..who ?

    Oh no shitski – my dear old friend GOLD !
    Always by my side, and close about me body. How high will you fly GOLD ?
    To the Moon?

    CPC has an insatiable appetite for the yellow metal, as does Russia. While at same time USA has majority of its GOLD leased out. hmmmmm Got any Oil ? Know pedo joe has sold all of the strategic reserve out..to china, at a discount..”10% for the big guy” aint that nice?

    Side by side, hand in hand the 2 best indicators of INFLATION running like a wild fire; Gold at new ATH, Copper getting coiled up, could strike anytime, while Copper miners been picking up steam lately…

    Sniff sniff..is that fire and brimestone ? nah thats the constant background odor of our Times, will be needing disCERNment ..to figure out what that new smelly smell is, if I didnt already know better, I would say it smells like INFLATION..

    Nastiest TAX on the planet (inflation)is out looking for its next meal – We all be the menu, hands around ankles, willing to be consumed.

    Hope you all had a Happy Ishtar(Innana)!

    219 years ago today..
    Shout out czar Alexander1 – who saved Paris from the “allies”, after Russian Army entered Paris in 1814, with Big Al riding in front. What dont remember Napoleon surrendering at the foutainbleu, and exiled to Elba ? Russia remembers..Can you imagine Pooters at the head of the RUSsian army, riding a T14 armata into Paris..how glorious would that bee?

    Moar rhymes in time coming soonly, I promise.

    The Hot season is hear..https://youtu.be/SZw4NEKcEHY?si=XUi1yqvHQ6nF_E1s

    Hunted or Hunter – is the question, know the Russians be Hunting.
    A better question for near future – Real or Memorex,
    *best to observe, stew on it and Not react, wait. Point being caution on reacting prematurely, as all not as it seems/seemed.

    • (“my dear old friend GOLD !
      Always by my side, and close about me body. How high will you fly GOLD ?
      To the Moon?”)

      Brings to mind Ole king Midas..

      https://youtu.be/nn8YGPZdCvA?si=Bq2NXZhCw6YGWYZt

      so if you buy a gold coin and pay lets say ten dollars.. when you go to sell it back will the same buyer pay you the ten dollars you paid.. Not likely it is a commodity and he makes his money selling a product.. you buy it in hopes that it will still have the value when you need to sell it..

  5. “if your spouse wasn’t going to age like a fine wine, would you marry”

    Kind of a thing you could always do by looking at the mates parents. Sure there probably some exceptions, but genetics is a thing. Almost none of us age gracefully, but for most of us before making a lifetime decision, we note more then looks in a mate. If beauty and youth is your thing. Live like DiCaprio and always keep trading in your partner. Of course to live like that need to be rich or famous and probably a good bit of both.

    Certainly for many looks spark some of the original interest. Social media though has pushed people hard to the physical characteristics. Would certainly be a shamre if we abort the next Einstein because we didn’t like his looks, height or ability in sportsball. But that feels like a path we are on, where physical characteristics are valued so heavily

  6. “Which means (I have one another couple of neighbors) that so far, Water Heater Disease has struck 50% of the households within a half mile radius of our place.”

    were the homes built at about the same time? just a thought
    Market Place, well I sold 100 of my $DJT stock last week @72.75 well I bought them back this morn @56. while I left/still have 85 shares in the ante for 185 coupons total
    like a yo-yo,, ya/I have to react to the diabalo
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diabolo
    I still have Sandhill cranes to announce the morning and Goldfinches getting more brighter by the day, both will soon be gone north for the season, but for now, the season is NOW, ya know,,, so I got to go and refill the thistle seed feeders,,, cheers

  9. Something’s Up: Another City Declares “Emergency” over April 8 Solar Eclipse…

    Hal TURNER: The states, cities, counties, and towns mentioned above are just a small sampling of what has been going on to “prepare” for this eclipse. Sorry, but none of this seems normal to me — at all.

    Cellular network collapse? Internet collapse? Grocery stores running out of food? Disaster Declarations? No, none of this seems normal to me at all.

    It’s starting to look to me as if something ELSE is going on. But . . . . what?

    I’m getting a little creeped-out by all these disaster declarations. All this for just a solar eclipse? Sorry, I won’t buy it.

    I’ll tell you what I __will__ do: Top-off my emergency food, water, medicine, communications gear (CB and HAM Radio) and stay close to home. In fact, my wife and I agreed over the weekend that we will be at our bugout location in Pennsylvania for this . . . . eclipse.

    No, not to see it . . . but to be away from the New York metropolitan area for whatever might __actually__ be the situation.

    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en-us/component/content/article/somethings-up-another-city-declares-emergency-over-april-8-solar-eclipse?catid=17&Itemid=101

    • Hal hints that the unusual emergency preparations might be to control panicked reactions to the sudden visibility of a previously unseen object near the sun. Niburu?

    • Looks as if it will be a non-event here, even though we’re within the path of totality. Predicted 90% cloud coverage with an inch or more of rain should dampen any rowdy spirits. I guess disappointed folks who travel great distances to get here may become a little upset they didn’t go somewhere else.

    • Let me see…. a massive flare is headed towards Earth.. Would a massive electomagnetic wave assist an EMP device.. we already know how vulnerable the grid is.. we did that on purpose to promote greed.. more work spend more to do less..
      the necessary equipment to rebuild it.. is ten to twenty years backordered to a country that our present administration is working very hard to upset..
      If the flare hits our side of the planet as it happens.. what better time could there possibly be to launch that kind of attack..

    • It is called Project Blue Beam.

      Said to be the last-final move by the DS.

      Main paperclip nazi warned about it many, many moons ago.

      On April 8th , we may all will need to exercise disCERNment, like never before. CERN is getting fired up, as NASA is scheduled 2 launch 3 Rockets that day..

      I keep posting about desCERNment, that all is not what it seems..

      For the easily deceived, majority, a very powerful laser (2 mile radius) readily available on the zon would be GREAT way to See thru the 3D Projection (s). Or stay inside and dont look up, You dont wanna SEE ALL the Chemicals/Toxins/HeavyMetals being SPRAYED on You and Ure loved ones anyways.

  10. George, you and I are the same line of thinking in regards to Victoria Nuland. We were out of town all weekend visiting family, but that she might be the ‘mannish woman’ has been in the back of my mind for a while. This morning while getting caught up, I dropped Stu a note saying that very thing and then I finally got to the PN column…well lookey there! I’m glad I’m not the only one.

    • Copyright 2007 The Age of Desolation – 101
      All Rights Reserved G.A. Stewart

      Human civilization has always existed as a highly structured, caste society. Despite ages of reason, or the noblest of philosophies, or the grandest documents ever written that
      codify individual freedom, the majority of humanity has to get by on what is in their stomachs and in their wallets. Thus those who control the food and the money easily lead
      us simple, physical human beings on Crusades, Revolutions, Civil Wars, and Jihads. The question is: what is the impetus in history that allows a small cabal of powerful individuals to inspire whole nations to rise up and slaughter millions of people?

      Apparently, Nostradamus understood the politics behind continual warfare.

  11. The DNA look-forward does sound interesting.

    Some people keep the baby teeth from their children as mementos and could be an easy look-forward test for the tech. Flint, MI residents were told to keep their children’s teeth for future lead lawsuits so there’s another sample group for a five to 10 year look-forward.

    I asked Google.

    “Although any tissue is amenable to extraction of DNA, dental tissues such as enamel, dentin, pulp and cementum, offers us the advantage of being resistant to physical, environmental degradation and has proved to be a good source of genomic DNA.”

    • the grade school a few years ago.. brought finger print kit to the school.. they took a photo of the child finger printed them.. then put in a small circle they put a few strands of hair.. that way if their child ever got lost.. the idea was they would update the file each year.. whether or not they did that.. I don’t know.. I know some parents put trackers on the kids..
      https://www.amazon.com/Tracker-Vehicles-Precise-Tracking-Coverage/dp/B0CWTKGLR3/ref=sr_1_6?
      some of the bigger clothing manufacturers put tracking tags on their clothing line to see who is buying it.. what neighborhoods buy their products.. some parents put clothing tags on their childrens clothes..

    • Apparently NOAH and NASA missed it. What planet is Hal transmitting from? Maybe it’s an observational frame of reference issue.

  14. George could be a pressure valve malfuncting or someone changed the pressure on your supply line

  15. March 29, 2024
    G.A. STEWART: I sent George an email warning of what could happen this Easter weekend just before he published this post. I wrote to him that “This is a weekend to worry about. I don’t expect anything nuclear, and technically, just before Easter of 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. But the line “Peace shall sleep and war awaken” suggests that World War III will be officially acknowledged this weekend.”

    https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2024/03/29/good-friday-and-its-not-all-so-good/

    April 01, 2024
    Israel Kills Top Iran General
    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-794796

    HAL TURNER: The Israeli Air Force has bombed a building in Damascus, Syria, directly next to the Iran Embassy! We are just “meters” (literally) from a major war.

    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/component/content/article/israel-bombs-building-next-to-iran-embassy-in-damascus-syria?catid=17&Itemid=220

  17. Like others here I looked at my prospective Mother in Law. Little Anna was 5’1″ and about 100lbs on our wedding day. She an her mother standing side by side were the same height. Also looked at several old pictures in family albums. I figured, in 40-50 years that would be fine.
    It will be 40 years this May 5th and My prediction was abous spot on.

  18. Two years ago I bought a ‘new’ used Mac laptop with latest OS just to do my taxes, as TurboTax is apparently in bed with Apple to require the latest, greatest, (most expensive) OS to do simple accounting. This year when I got the machine out of storage, it would not WiFi connect to anything. Well, I carried through on my threat last year to ‘never again’ be held hostage like that. My taxes are a simple SR form, and I went to the TurboTax website and did them for FREE. I don’t care if they got my data… Eff ‘em. I got nuthin’ spectacular. Social Security and a pension so small it isn’t taxable.

    But as far as ‘crooked accounting’ goes… I once worked with a lady who had been a sales manager and later TV station manager who was a spreadsheet whiz and kept her own ‘books’ on the station income. When a new ‘mainframe’ type computer accounting system custom made for broadcast station usage was introduced by corporate, she would explore ALL the options and exercise the thing thoroughly. When it was put online for six months, she found that her own totals and those coming from the ‘official’ system were coming out different. She notified the corporate business accounting office, and then phoned the software company that sold the accounting system. When she explained the difference in totals outcomes because she kept her own books, the first question that software people asked her was: “Why would you do such a thing?” Well…. DUH? They tap-danced and told her they would look into it. She told the corporate accounting office the results of her call, also.

    There never was a complete, satisfactory answer to her satisfaction. The corporate accounting office never replied, but the CEO, whom she was closely communicating with also, eventually told her not to worry about it… it was some kind of tax-rules accounting blah-blah. When she told me this story, she just shrugged and said: “Well, I did my due diligence. But I think the software company is skimming something.”

    Condolences on your paperwork nightmares, George.

  19. AT&T has announced a data breach. A very large data breach.
    – 73 million accounts were dumped onto the DarkWeb.
    – They aren’t sure who actually did it.., but AT&T is scrambling like mad in a damage-control effort.
    .
    Remember boys & girls., nothing in this ‘digital age’ is safe. Your personal data in hanging out on probably a dozen different servers., and all are vulnerable.

  20. If you look at your current hot water device. Take special note of the country of Manufacture. Our local guy had ordered a truckload of the tanks. They non intelligent ones! Costs extra now thanks to the enviro MENTAL people. Mine was built in the first run from south of the border. Well about 30 years ago a company we were buying thermostats from decided that making them South was cheaper. The first run of 180 over 70% were fail out of the box. Sent whole batch back. Next run about 40% bad sent it all back. 3rd run all worked. Same with water heater gas fired no plug in. 3 months later no hot water. Dead thermostat. Sent replacement fedx overnight received it 2 weeks later. Don’t care for them either. In fact I try to make it a point that if co ships that way I will find another supplier. Moral is look for when the company you are buying from switched factories and try to wait. If you can. Stay away from Electronic controls at all cost. I bought a new washer 2 years ago. Dumb timer.
    Brand is SPEED QUEEN! Its a commercial grade. yes they do have the smart washer and dryer. My biggest regret was not buying the 27cu ft frost free freezer a while back. Now its not MENTAL enough. If you can get it now cause the MENTALS have forget the real world. Oh and get ready to RFID CHIP your cattle. And watch out fro the dairy cows they have bird flu. Stay as far away from smart things as you can. You don;t need the grief! By the way almost everything is designed to self destruct in 5 to 10 years. Unless its a Korean refrigerator then 1yr to 6 months if you are lucky. EPA regs you understand.

  21. I have some civil crisis preparedness training and I don’t think the cited authorities are over-reacting. The mayor on the Canadian side of Niagra Falls said they are expecting to get +/- a million visitors for the eclipse, and they normally get 14 million a year. Can you say just a bit crowded? They will all want gas, food, bottled water, instant internet access, and money from an ATM, unless they all come suitably prepared–wanna bet they do?

    The other mentioned locales will find similar problems with local resources taxed to the max. You know as well as I do that afterward they will all be criticized for not having prepared well enough, so they’re getting it coming and going. I would not want to have that much on my plate. Gray Fox

  22. I was never trained by an Alaska bush pilot, though my primary instructor was damn good. I did have the fortune to get my water rating with a female bush pilot in Maine. Lots to know that never gets into the handbooks, including how to get a bloody cold blooded air cooled engine to start on a Maine morning in October!

  23. Is anyone else having trouble with Brave and Youtube? Youtube must have changed something for April Fool’s, because opening more than a tab or two with Youtube will crash the browser. I used to be able to have tens of Youtube tabs open at the same time, but now it’s problematic. It seems confined to Brave and Youtube, and it’s an instant browser crash. Very annoying! I may have to find a better browser – again!

  26. “Ideas are welcome”

    in the language of creation a series of, es

    water (heaters) breaking speaks to me of birth. specifically birth panges which is earthquakes.

    esp-cially around easter would point me to Jesus speaking on the subject.

    cross refrence to Israel bombing irans embassy in demascus. one of other big D’s. since demascus has been around 11 melenium. one of the oldest if not the oldests city in the world.

    after all George, the name Damascus translates to “well-watered land”

    Jesus said,

    “You’re going to hear about wars, actual wars and rumored ones; make sure you don’t get alarmed. This has got to happen, but it doesn’t mean the end is coming yet. 7 Nations will rise against one another, and kingdoms against each other. There will be famines and earthquakes here and there. 8 All this is just the start of the birth pangs.”

    same with ship hitting the bridge.

    all different but similar forms and frames of refrence in the language of creation speaking to—–>
    water breaking.

    i wasnt going to say anything. i dont say much anymore. it doesnt mean im not aware of such things.

    THE DUDE said, say it.

    so i said it so.

    as the Elders told me a while back, after my last visit to Urban Survival,

    Humility is having The Power and the self discipline to use it wisely.

  27. you see it now.

    ship hits bridge: water breaking.
    Ships have what? a berth.
    water heaters breaking all around you. water breaking. birth
    isreal bombs irans embassy in Damascus.

    Damascus means: Well Watered Land, also water-rich land, and also -> water bearing land.

    bearing is also a term for ships weaving and intersecting to a common thing.

    all frames of refrences to “Birth” and the process of birth. when a ladys water breaks, you know birth is right around the corner.

    like i said,
    i dont say anything about these things much any more. i am aware of them. i mostly keep it to myself.

    once im settled in. i will be back around.

    as it is i have a full plate. and being cool in the comment sections of places,

    doesnt pay as well as horses and brides on parade.

    lol

  28. “Strong hiring (which is what we generally expect) will increase odds that the Fed will “hold ’em high”

    Um, duh!

    The Biden Administration is going to report “strong hiring” every month, every week, hell, even every day (if they can propagate it as “news”) from now until the Election. One will HAVE TO check the BLS “total employed” sheet to even have a clue (but WE already are…)

  29. “Less than party in Baltimore, though: Crews remove first piece of Baltimore bridge wreckage from water.”

    GOOD! That means they solved the technical issues related to the trussing, and should have the shipping lanes open by Wednesday, at the latest (but I’ll bet they won’t…)
    ===

    “Meantime we saw this and wondered how the Woke would monetize the bridge incident”

    You SHOULD wonder how, in a PC world, that bridge could even be replaced, let alone where, when, or how the wokesters would monetize the whole mess. The replacement for that bridge is going to take years of environMENTAL impact studies and engineering studies before anyone ever gets around to loosing the PC/DIE/NONWHITE-Supremist crowd on its reconstruction.

  30. “US Army Chief of Staff Provides IDF Chief of Staff with Recommended Operation Plan in Rafah”

    If I were a battle-tested commander, I would likely do the opposite of whatever one of our general officers suggested because I don’t accept ideas from people unfamiliar with the mechanics of achieving success.
    ===

    “Then there’s Iran which is working the PR gap: Iran Calls For Intl. Probe Into “Israel’s Crimes” In Gaza Al-Shifa Hospital.”

    Y’know, it is starting to burn me, that we (and every other news end-user in the “civilized world”) get 100% of our information on the goings-on in Gaza from the Hamas News Service, and nearly all of us are gullible enough to believe “news” from that extremely partisan source is accurate. Hell, I don’t think even Haaretz or JPost have imbeds in the IDF, and so are depending on HNS to fill space.

  31. Eclipse preps are nearly complete. In the last week I scored a NIB Loudenboomer (which I absolutely did not need, but the lady wanted half of what I put into either of my Heath linears, so it was kinda impossible to pass up), an “eye on the sparrow ’92” in stainless, an Icom 7300 (yes, the 765 is going down a shelf) and will probably go out in tomorrow’s blizzard and install a new inverted “V.” (40mph winds and ??? inches of snow for Wed & Thu. One of these years I’m gonna drive to Punx and shoot that damn’ lyin’ rat…!)

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