No matter how good you might be in some aspect of investing, there are oftentimes days like Wednesday.  I cashed out my short position for a nice profit.  Then – ignoring one of my own rules of investing – I went back in – short – and that cost me a good bit.  No dinner last night, no lunch today.

My crazy theory is “If you’re going to be a gut trader, then use food as a reward (or punishment) for making good gut decisions.  Either that, or follow one of my own trading rules:  When you exit a directional trade, never re-enter before you’ve had overnight to study things.

That said, our current outlook is for an up day today and a downer tomorrow and Monday with a Turnaround Tuesday next week.  This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE…More like Vegas talk among shooters.

(Continues below)


There have been a couple of things come into view that should cause a rally.

One of these is the solid job gains reported Wednesday.  And this morning, the Challenger Job Cuts Report is just out:

The nation’s employers announced plans to cut 35,369 jobs in February, down 20 percent from the 44,653 cuts announced in January, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s total is 4.3 percent lower than the 36,957 announced job cuts in February 2017. So far this year, employers have announced 80,022 cuts, 3.5 percent lower than through February last year. This is the lowest number of announced job cuts between January and February since 1995, when 69,907 cuts were announced.

Even more useful is that president Trump’s approval rating is up top 51% now, which means despite the slobbering idiots on the corporate boob tube, thinking people won’t put up with daily BS that “any minute now Mueller will indict the president…” for more than 12-14 months.  When you think about it, even 12 months is absurd, but that’s the country we live in.

The Coming War with Mexico

We’ve been writing about the coming show-down for more than a decade now.  The reason is obvious:  People from “elsewhere” don’t have a right to be here without permission in advance.  That isn’t a convincing argument when you have nothing “back home” due to drug lords and gangs, of course.

The liberal nonsense is that all people have a right to pile in here…and until the new immigration judge quotas announced this week, the method of the Deep State to run the Open Borders Globalist Agenda was to simply not do their work in a prompt and efficient manner.

All this while the left of left type spouted Reconquista!

The story du jour this morning is that the “caravan” that promoters like People Without Borders had been planning to invade the US with, has – at least for now – claimed they are giving up.

Of course, they won’t.  Because after 50-years of watching uncivil disobedients of various stripes, I’ve concluded they all have a remarkable ability to lie.

For example, the kind of thinking I’d wager is going on in caravan organizer meetings would be something like this:  “We’ll say we’re turning back, but we really won’t.  Then, when we cross, there will be so much supportive media coverage that we will be able to claim victory!”

With a rabidly pro-immigration president (Obama, for example) and given the radical left posing as journalists, taking their orders from the globalist Deep State, it would no doubt work.  At least back then.

Trump, however, is a different kettle of fish.  So is General Mattis.  They are not “playing” and Trump knows there is broad support for keeping America’s borders working and right where they are.

The Payoff of Jade Helm 15

Remember the conspiracy theories from that military exercise three yeares back?  Out military affairs whiz, warhammer, sure does…

“Is it just me, or did the Jade Helm 15 exercise across the U. S. southwest come to mind when the huge Honduran hoard announced their goal was asylum across the U.S./Mexican border?

The logistics involved in supporting such a large group will likely prevent them from reaching the Rio Grande to formally ask for asylum.  Never mind that the masses would have had to cross over 1,000 miles of Mexican territory, during which time they could request Mexican asylum at any point.

So did the population dynamics way back in the Obama years indicate the have-nots would attempt to seek refuge in the land of the haves.  Trump, realist Commander-in-Chief that he is, might merely be exercising U.S.  National Guard forces for a human wall border protection mission that is destined to come.

But then, elements of Jade Helm might have already done that.

Time will tell.  Something to chew on.

buen día señor

We don’t mean to “talk over you” if you don’t Jade Helm 15.  Basically, it was a trial run at defending the US from an “invader” and care to guess from which direction?

“The joint exercise in realistic military training (RMT) known as Jade Helm 15[2] was sponsored by the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM or SOCOM)[3] and involved the United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) and Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) with other U.S. Military units in multiple states, including Texas, Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Utah. Its stated purpose was “to improve the Special Operations Forces’ capability as part of the National Security Strategy”.[3] It was coordinated and led from Eglin Air Force Base, an Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC) base in northwest Florida.[4]

Approximately 1,200 troops were engaged over the course of the exercise.[4] They were “mainly Army Green Berets, but also a small group of Navy SEALS and Air Force special operations troops as well as conventional Army infantry”,[5] although the initial request to state officials from USSOCOM listed elements of the United States Marine Corps Forces Special Operations Command (MARSOC), Marine expeditionary units, the 82nd Airborne Division, and “interagency partners” as participants.[3] Troops engaging in the exercise assumed the roles of either occupying or resistance forces.[6] Most locations were in sparsely populated arid regions near small towns. Some participants wore civilian attire and drove civilian vehicles.[7] Maps of the exercise included areas of the United States such as Colorado and California where no actual operations were planned.[8] The cities in Texas include Bastrop, Smithville, Big Spring, Caddo Lake, Caldwell, Christoval, College Station, Dell City, Eldorado, Goliad, Junction, Leakey, Menard, Mountain Home, San Angelo, San Antonio, and Victoria.

And yes, since we’re in Texas, our view of Mexico as a narco-state will no doubt be decried racist by globalist stooges.  But the data is on our side, media putas.  For  example, the black tar coming in from Mexico is not suitable for road construction.

Here’s a fair question:  Were Jade Helm conspiracy theorists doing the work of pro-immigration forces who wanted the exercise cancelled?

And contrary to the non-stop conspiracy theories floated in 2015, Jade Helm was very much a non-event domestically.  Until, of course, this week.  Then it was a DANDY top drawer contingency plan.

Makes us wonder again if our purely hypothetical computational future group, Directorate 153 – a hyper-advanced continuity of government agency – is real…

Call a Climateer!

This is in the NY Times, so it must be true,, right? New York Today: More Snow on the Way.

Why, it’s even in the Chicago papers: April’s wintry chill continues with snow on the way.

About here, we expect the data-jiggering (*making up data to fit the grant money) climateer’s will launch into “See, cold proves it’s warming...”

Maybe if we could lock ’em in a walk-in freezer for a year, or so, they’d come to their senses.  Or, better yet?  Cut off the grant money.  It’s not that complicated.

Oh, compare our local data from this year with last:

2018 looks like this:

But who am I to point at actual data, huh?  3 inches more rain than last year, too…

Markets Rise to Continue

A break in the global decline?  US International Trade is rocking…unfortunately while the graphic show up the impact on the balance of trade is bad:

Still looking for a 100+ opener, so I will go back to tending my charts and trying to think up what’s useful for tomorrow…