Running the Shorts. Job Data Supports?

No matter how good you might be in some aspect of investing, there are oftentimes days like Wednesday.  I cashed out my short position for a nice profit.  Then – ignoring one of my own rules of investing – I went back in – short – and that cost me a good bit.  No dinner last night, no lunch today.

My crazy theory is “If you’re going to be a gut trader, then use food as a reward (or punishment) for making good gut decisions.  Either that, or follow one of my own trading rules:  When you exit a directional trade, never re-enter before you’ve had overnight to study things.

That said, our current outlook is for an up day today and a downer tomorrow and Monday with a Turnaround Tuesday next week.  This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE…More like Vegas talk among shooters.

(Continues below)

 

There have been a couple of things come into view that should cause a rally.

One of these is the solid job gains reported Wednesday.  And this morning, the Challenger Job Cuts Report is just out:

The nation’s employers announced plans to cut 35,369 jobs in February, down 20 percent from the 44,653 cuts announced in January, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s total is 4.3 percent lower than the 36,957 announced job cuts in February 2017. So far this year, employers have announced 80,022 cuts, 3.5 percent lower than through February last year. This is the lowest number of announced job cuts between January and February since 1995, when 69,907 cuts were announced.

Even more useful is that president Trump’s approval rating is up top 51% now, which means despite the slobbering idiots on the corporate boob tube, thinking people won’t put up with daily BS that “any minute now Mueller will indict the president…” for more than 12-14 months.  When you think about it, even 12 months is absurd, but that’s the country we live in.

The Coming War with Mexico

We’ve been writing about the coming show-down for more than a decade now.  The reason is obvious:  People from “elsewhere” don’t have a right to be here without permission in advance.  That isn’t a convincing argument when you have nothing “back home” due to drug lords and gangs, of course.

The liberal nonsense is that all people have a right to pile in here…and until the new immigration judge quotas announced this week, the method of the Deep State to run the Open Borders Globalist Agenda was to simply not do their work in a prompt and efficient manner.

All this while the left of left type spouted Reconquista!

The story du jour this morning is that the “caravan” that promoters like People Without Borders had been planning to invade the US with, has – at least for now – claimed they are giving up.

Of course, they won’t.  Because after 50-years of watching uncivil disobedients of various stripes, I’ve concluded they all have a remarkable ability to lie.

For example, the kind of thinking I’d wager is going on in caravan organizer meetings would be something like this:  “We’ll say we’re turning back, but we really won’t.  Then, when we cross, there will be so much supportive media coverage that we will be able to claim victory!”

With a rabidly pro-immigration president (Obama, for example) and given the radical left posing as journalists, taking their orders from the globalist Deep State, it would no doubt work.  At least back then.

Trump, however, is a different kettle of fish.  So is General Mattis.  They are not “playing” and Trump knows there is broad support for keeping America’s borders working and right where they are.

The Payoff of Jade Helm 15

Remember the conspiracy theories from that military exercise three yeares back?  Out military affairs whiz, warhammer, sure does…

“Is it just me, or did the Jade Helm 15 exercise across the U. S. southwest come to mind when the huge Honduran hoard announced their goal was asylum across the U.S./Mexican border?

The logistics involved in supporting such a large group will likely prevent them from reaching the Rio Grande to formally ask for asylum.  Never mind that the masses would have had to cross over 1,000 miles of Mexican territory, during which time they could request Mexican asylum at any point.

So did the population dynamics way back in the Obama years indicate the have-nots would attempt to seek refuge in the land of the haves.  Trump, realist Commander-in-Chief that he is, might merely be exercising U.S.  National Guard forces for a human wall border protection mission that is destined to come.

But then, elements of Jade Helm might have already done that.

Time will tell.  Something to chew on.

buen día señor

We don’t mean to “talk over you” if you don’t Jade Helm 15.  Basically, it was a trial run at defending the US from an “invader” and care to guess from which direction?

“The joint exercise in realistic military training (RMT) known as Jade Helm 15[2] was sponsored by the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM or SOCOM)[3] and involved the United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) and Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) with other U.S. Military units in multiple states, including Texas, Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Utah. Its stated purpose was “to improve the Special Operations Forces’ capability as part of the National Security Strategy”.[3] It was coordinated and led from Eglin Air Force Base, an Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC) base in northwest Florida.[4]

Approximately 1,200 troops were engaged over the course of the exercise.[4] They were “mainly Army Green Berets, but also a small group of Navy SEALS and Air Force special operations troops as well as conventional Army infantry”,[5] although the initial request to state officials from USSOCOM listed elements of the United States Marine Corps Forces Special Operations Command (MARSOC), Marine expeditionary units, the 82nd Airborne Division, and “interagency partners” as participants.[3] Troops engaging in the exercise assumed the roles of either occupying or resistance forces.[6] Most locations were in sparsely populated arid regions near small towns. Some participants wore civilian attire and drove civilian vehicles.[7] Maps of the exercise included areas of the United States such as Colorado and California where no actual operations were planned.[8] The cities in Texas include Bastrop, Smithville, Big Spring, Caddo Lake, Caldwell, Christoval, College Station, Dell City, Eldorado, Goliad, Junction, Leakey, Menard, Mountain Home, San Angelo, San Antonio, and Victoria.

And yes, since we’re in Texas, our view of Mexico as a narco-state will no doubt be decried racist by globalist stooges.  But the data is on our side, media putas.  For  example, the black tar coming in from Mexico is not suitable for road construction.

Here’s a fair question:  Were Jade Helm conspiracy theorists doing the work of pro-immigration forces who wanted the exercise cancelled?

And contrary to the non-stop conspiracy theories floated in 2015, Jade Helm was very much a non-event domestically.  Until, of course, this week.  Then it was a DANDY top drawer contingency plan.

Makes us wonder again if our purely hypothetical computational future group, Directorate 153 – a hyper-advanced continuity of government agency – is real…

Call a Climateer!

This is in the NY Times, so it must be true,, right? New York Today: More Snow on the Way.

Why, it’s even in the Chicago papers: April’s wintry chill continues with snow on the way.

About here, we expect the data-jiggering (*making up data to fit the grant money) climateer’s will launch into “See, cold proves it’s warming...”

Maybe if we could lock ’em in a walk-in freezer for a year, or so, they’d come to their senses.  Or, better yet?  Cut off the grant money.  It’s not that complicated.

Oh, compare our local data from this year with last:

2018 looks like this:

But who am I to point at actual data, huh?  3 inches more rain than last year, too…

Markets Rise to Continue

A break in the global decline?  US International Trade is rocking…unfortunately while the graphic show up the impact on the balance of trade is bad:

Still looking for a 100+ opener, so I will go back to tending my charts and trying to think up what’s useful for tomorrow…

Comments

Running the Shorts. Job Data Supports? — 35 Comments

  1. For you ladies ,don’t be falling in love with him while he’s walking away..
    .. it’s springtime Springtime fever everyone looks better once they took a shower and cut off all that long hair and exercise to get rid of the extra weight and they’ve also learned how 2 say yeah you look good Let’s Get It On.

    What we want is a commitment to prolong establishment in this community….
    We have a few whores here in this community that will try you out and see you what you’re worth if you’re sincere…..

    But we’ve also got some beautiful ladies here that want to be with you for the rest of your life and that’s up to you to determine.

  2. Damn… everything is focused ..tariffs ,refugees ,army at the border Yada yada yada .
    and here I am dreaming on how to make a compact efficient grow system for the space station.. woke up.. I got it clear as daylight.. Now to make one. Hook it up to mr. slurpy use waste produced to feed the plants. Hang it upside down right side up you pick. Self contained environment and you can fit the system (less plants) in your pocket..
    I guess I could have brought that old thought back up because nasa( those boys are awesome) had a live watch from the station evening while he did chores. Years ago the kids and I were trying to get a unit made for a science project for their science fair at school. It got put on hold..then my dream..pretty pumped.. the problem was space.. it has to be able to work in a space of a dumpster and still leave room for people..

  3. If we dont see a real correction of 10-30% that lasts a few weeks, real soon, then I doubt we will see that correction anytime soon, and May onwards may result in markets hitting above 26,000 mark. It looks like my plan of entering the markets after this expected correction, is running out of time. The correction does not want to manifest.

  4. Seems we are still wasting billions on what should be a simple solution, fine the hell out of those that employe them, end of problem…

  5. I have been thinking latly on why I find life so unpleasant. In 1970 there were 200 mill. people in the country. If you apply normal birth replacement rates to 200 mill. people, the country would still have 200 mill. people . Not the 337 million that crowd the roads and are always in my way.
    These 135 mill. extra people are all immigrants or the children of immigrants.
    George, in 74 I lived in Houston. Who did they build that outer ring road for. The one that wasn’t there in 74.
    Why has one street in my city gone from 16 stop lights to , by my last. count 33?

    • Karl, this is what we call progress. It’s necessitated by the fact that our entire economic paradigm will crash and burn without growth. Seems pretty simple when looked at in this way. The 200 mil were here, they aren’t reproducing (ah, the liberals win…) so with all those kids prevented with Planned Parenthood, we instead import people.
      It’s all a con, my friend, but it’s also all a business model…

    • Sorry Karl, but everyone of my family ‘procreating’ in 1970 (Americans all – since before 1900) had more than ‘replacement’ children (save an aunt who was a nun), hence seven became 40 plus. Actually an improvement – the 1900 people had for example in a couple of relatives, fifteen kids and eleven kids respectively – darn those Swedes and Norwegians, eh?

      • You nor anyone else can outbreed imports. It just isn’t gonna happen. In my town, the ones getting to stay home, push the prams, and have more than 4 kids are the illegals. They never beg, they aren’t starving, they are not poor, they are well clothed, drive nice cars, live in nice places, and have a great life living in the USA courtesy of the globalist traitors in CONgress serving us right up for the new world order. It is all intentional, all planned, and all going as planned and p.s., it is not for the votes.

      • Really? New World Order? It is a provable fact that when people from ‘third world countries’ come to ‘first world countries’ their birth rates drop severely – So you want the US to have more elderly like Japan, which will soon ‘lose the edge’ in innovation? Who will pay our Social Security in the future? People coming to the US will help! Demographics rule!

      • Hahaha paying into social security that made me pee in my pants! We’ve had 40 years of illegals and their employers, taking advantage of not paying a penny into social security while our government made sure they can collect benefits. Yeah, more selling out lies.

      • My 8th grade science teacher told us people in poor nations see sex as recreation, hence more kids than they can usually support and the revolving cycle of poverty.

        These days he’d be tarred and feathered and shamed forever for implying such a thing to tender young minds.

    • “this is what we call progress. It’s necessitated by the fact that our entire economic paradigm will crash and burn without growth.”

      that is true.. but as we progress.. how does that affect future sustainability for mankind’s progress.. kind of like the carpenter ant..

  6. Back in 1992 Harold Coyle wrote a novel titled “Trial by Fire” about a conventional war between the USA & Mexico. Pre-WW1, during the Mexican revolution, large numbers of Mexicans came north to avoid the turmoil. I don’t recall seeing any credible estimates. If the Pentagon did not have contingency plans for either event, I’d be shocked.

  7. ALL-TIME HIGH: JAN. 26, 2018 26616.71

    WATCH OUT NEXT 10 TRADING DAYS!!!

    JAN. 26 TO BEGINNING NEXT WEEK

    -55- +/- DAYS FROM ALL TIME HIGH

    L-O-O-K O-U-T B-E-L-O-W ! ! ! ! ! ! !

    ????????????????
    ????????????????
    ????????????????
    ????????????????

    • 55 Trading days from 1/26/18 would be 4/17/18 (2 trading holiday omitted – Pres Day & Good Friday) which is the final day to file your taxes.

      Are you saying that is when the market is going to crash?

  8. Anyone still questions the power of a rising 200-period simple moving average? Just take a look at any major average and observe. ;-)

    • I checked the DOW 200 day MA. The DOW broke below the 200 day MA intraday on 4/2/18 & then then rallied & closed above it. My charts went bullish on 4/3/18. Hopefully the market can keep up this rally.

      If the DOW breaks below the 200 day MA, that would be bearish.

      • Correction: If the DOW CLOSES below the 200 day MA, that would be bearish.

  9. Posse Comitatus Act complicates things lacking a national emergency and declaration of martial law. Most of the southern border states will cooperate with PDT and call up the National Guard (paid for by the feds) for border control activities. California won’t cooperate. But they could send a bunch of border control agents TDY from where the NG is operating to the Peoples Republic of California and tighten up the border, maybe while starting the new wall construction there. Just a possiblility.
    James Johnson, ex-nuke

    • Wouldn’t it be both quicker & cheaper to arrest all those behind the Sanctuary Movement for insurrection and pack them all off to Guantanamo?
      I read that the govt. has recently refurbished and expanded that facility to hold up to 850 prisoners.

    • Posse Comitatus prohibits the use of the military for domestic law enforcement activities (i.e. ‘policing’ inside the borders of the U.S. The POTUS placing the Guard ‘at the border’ to prevent non-citizens from ‘invading’ American territory is part and parcel of his Constitutional responsibilities as Commander-in-Chief. Mirroring what James states above, the “PCA does not apply to National Guard members when operating pursuant to state authorities (so-called “Title 32” authorities). On a day-to-day basis, these National Guard troops fall outside the federal chain of command absent an independent trigger that federalizes the force.” [Mark Nevitt, 4 April 2018, ‘Just Security’ website]. So Trump can either federalize the national guard forces to ‘protect the border,’ or the states can agree to deploy the guard to also police inside the borders of their states. I believe Trump has made a deft move, one that can withstand judicial/Constitutional challenges.

    • President Trump declared a national emergency back in December we’re still under that he has the authority to take over anything especially the money situation he has the authority to assemble troops are borders he has the authority to dismember the governor of California the people forgot that he declared that in December it has not been rescinded

      • He has used every law that the Obama Administration put into effect he has used those laws against them and they’re like wow how did you do that well it’s happening every day so live and learn

  10. Well the thing that would keep them from crossing the border with our National Guard military there would be you will be shot on site that would curb it real quick once the word got around but that’s not going to happen but anyway but you never know

    • And then we could always add shot on site for trying to change our constitution now that would get rid of those daggone globalist in a heartbeat wouldn’t it.

      Remember we’re countering the worst evil satanic beings on the face of the Earth that has set up every Congressman senator supreme Supreme Court Justices and every governor of every state and they have infiltrated every Institution they have infiltrated every corporation they have infiltrated every Church and yes they’ve infiltrated Wall Street and cryptocurrencies and yes they’ve also infiltrated your media and your mind.

  11. An interesting fact, as reported by CNBC: Five stocks – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft – collectively make up 15% of the S&P 500… so a sizable decline in any one of them (never mind all of them at once!) naturally makes it look like the S&P 500 is “struggling” more than you might guess if you were only looking at the other 495 stocks that make up the index!

    • Alphabet is GOOG & GOOGL. WHEN it split into GOOG & GOOGL, Cramer said to sell your GOOG & buy GOOGL which turned out to be good advice. I don’t think GOOG has VOTING rights.