I believe I mentioned that any time George Soros starts talking down the market and predicting crash-like declines, I take it as a near sure sign that my long position is about to pay off.

As mentioned to Peoplenomics subscribers in a Wednesday analysis, the NY Times has a very good, but short, piece on the reality of BREXIT and the realities are that a) today’s vote in a non-binding referendum and b) an actual pull-out from the EU’s clutches is spelled out in Article 50 of their confabulation and it takes at least two years.

Nevertheless, here we are again today, here comes the media march with stories like “How the ‘Brexit’ vote could affect your portfolio…”

Yet the futures market didn’t seem to be stampeded by such foolishness.  There are many factors that will definitely impact your investments far more than internecine machinations of the petty tyrants of Europe.  Election of the wrong president, the continuing weather extremes leading to famine and the defacto global synchronized monetary inflation, are just a few.

Would I like to see the market close above 2,100 on the S&P?  Of course!  I told you I was long SSO, did I not? 

The real metric, when comes to investing, seems to be to me (in my simpleton view of the world) to be the question:  “Does this source make more money from investing activities or from newsletter (doomporn) predictions?”

An d if they were such all-fired hot-stuff, shouldn’t they be making more off their investments than, as the old California Gold Rush merchants so aptly put it, “Mining the Miners?”

Trade the hype, not the doom.

The USA dollar is down vis-a-vis the Euro.  Or, more correctly stated, the Euro is up.  Therefore it takes a bigger pile of paper to buy solid assets like Dow, S&P, and NAS100 stocks.  That isn’t so complicated, is it? 

To the Great Unwashed, this looks like prices going up…which they do in nominal terms, but you have to think a little more behind the curtain to grok the ways…

CFNAI

Chicago Fed National Activity Index:  Growth slowed a bit in May.  {ress release, please…

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.51 in May from +0.05 in April. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from April, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in May.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.36 in May from –0.25 in April. May’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3  suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

Thank you.  Futures are still up 170.

Brain Dead DC

Awe, come on.  Really?  An anti gun sit in in the House?

A childish sit-in…ideally staged for the sycophant media by the gun-grabbing lefties who don’t understand what “shall not be infringed” – written in plain English (before it was a second language) – means in our beloved founding documents.

Here is the hell of it:  The House is well known for passing laws that members have not read, nor do they understand.  Thus, I’m driven to the conclusion that by the same token, neither have they read, nor do they be able to understand the Second Amendment.

The more I watch, the more it’s clear that the the television show about aliens taking over Washington is yet-another example of “The Message is in the Movie.”

Disruptive Technology Alert!

We habitually bemoan the Obama administrations lack of leadership and inability to articulate a national “dream” that everyone can get behind and support as totally cool and worthy of mass support.  As I’ve pointed out, the last president to do this effectively was John F. Kennedy with his “Land men on the moon in a decade” speech.  Bush failed, too, by this measure, so it’s not a party thing.  It’s a lack of vision in general. 

In fact we are so screwed, I bet Facebook gets more reading time overall than do four year colleges and universities, but I digress.

Unfortunately for us (as in U.S.) the Russians are able to articulate a BIG DREAM and they now have a national goal to develop working teleportation by 2035.

Could we beat them?  Why of course.

But that would take leadership, vision, commitment, and a return to American Exceptionalism…things presently medicated out of the general population and subverted in Washington, the epicenter of the Checkbook Republic.

Analysis:  The World Hasn’t Ended Yet

Our former oak leaf cluster fellow – like me – is a little disappoint in the scoreboard results of the Charlatan Brigade with their dire doom predictions failing one after another.  Warhammer points out, however, that there is still much to worry about:

Well, here we are in mid-June of 2016.  No comets or asteroids have impacted planet Earth and the four Blood Moons topped by a summer solstice full moon a few days back did not usher in Armageddon.  The Mayan apocalypse is long overdue.

I got to thinking, “what national security threats should Ure readers really be worried about?”   Below are my personal top 10 U.S. national security concerns, from most likely/worrisome to less likely but still somewhat disconcerting.   They could easily map to other countries.  Tomorrow, based upon the news, I could well change the order.  Most of those on the list involve and revolve around the complex interaction of a few key human actors, powerful spokespersons who are self or cabal appointed ‘leaders’ for larger groups of people, e.g. nations, religions, rebels, terror organizations or immigrant masses.  A few are dependent upon the whims of the universe. 

Again, these are just my personal take on this particular topic – you or others may disagree, and that’s a good thing IMO because it means the dissenter is thinking about all of the various possibilities.  So here goes:

1) Weapons of mass destruction:  Yes, I am biased toward nukes, but many people forget, or are just plain unaware, that there are (according to the Federation of American Scientists) currently 15,350 nuclear warheads sitting around somewhere on this planet.  See:  http://www.icanw.org/the-facts/nuclear-arsenals/   Should some regional conflict, or a misunderstanding between major powers, rapidly escalate before calmer heads prevail, those of us who survive the ensuing conflagration might live out our days, short as they may be, in a post-apocalyptic abyss.  Russia (7,300) and the U.S. (6,970) have the most nukes.  India, Pakistan and Israel each have in the neighborhood of 100.   It just takes one of these nukes to really get things popping.  PREPARATION:  underground or back country shelters, medical kits (with ingestible iodine), emergency water, food and clothing supplies and the means to provide for self-defense (guns, arrows, knives, spears, rocks, etc.)

2) Religious war:  The rise of political extremism under the mantle of religious belief is a massive threat to peace and security.  Ironically, the prospect of religious war is amplified by the rise of globalization.  As borders are dismantled, religious warriors can move about freely amidst the population, recruiting, planning and wreaking havoc where ever they choose to do so.  PREPARATION:  a strong individual rights based constitution, local activity awareness, religious education and a very strong personal and community self-defense capability.  Remember what Mohandas Gandhi said:  “The most heinous and the most cruel crimes of which history has record have been committed under the cover of religion or equally noble motives.”

3) Uncontrolled immigration:  new immigrants are necessary to prevent stagnation.  A flood of new immigrants results in a loss of control of the nationalization process (see ‘globalization’ above), leading to a general lack of understanding and apathy for things national security related by the new immigrant masses.  As noted above, it also amplifies the prospect for #2, religious war.  PREPARATION:  In the U.S., either enforce current immigration laws or learn Spanish.

4) Cyber-attack:  We are a few short steps from being totally cyber dependent.  Our individual identities, already exposed to countless nefarious web actors, are increasing at risk of compromise.  Similarly, national security (see Hillary Clinton and DNC server hacks) can be degraded by the use of poor national cyber security practices.  If your bank account is hacked, you could be instantly broke.  If the Federal Reserve and/or the Treasury are hacked, you’ll have a lot of company in the poor house.  A cyber Pearl Harbor could disarm national defenses and pillage federally insured banks without firing one lead bullet.  Similarly, cyber spoofing and disinformation could lead to a large scale blood and bullets conflict in retaliation.  PREPARATION:  use anti-virus protection;  ask your savings institution how they insure the cyber security of your funds at their institution;  Have paper/metal money on hand and things to use for barter.  Also prepare as if expecting food and supply shortages.

5) Globalization:  when you stop to think about it, when a nation is at risk of losing its identity through the globalization process, the national security of that nation is placed at risk.  In general terms, if there is no nation, there is no national security.  Globalization will eliminate national borders and competing economic markets.  On the other hand, the logical end result of globalization is the much feared ‘one world government’ where freedom of choice may be suppressed under the very Mr. Spockian doctrine of “the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one.”  PREPARATION:  read, get locally involved in community affairs and for heaven’s sake ‘VOTE!’

6) Regional conflict escalating into a broader war:   Luckily Korea, Vietnam and Iraq did not lead to WWIII.  Things are still a bit dicey in the last of the three mentioned countries, with Shi’ite and Sunni Muslims fighting a religious war for control over that nation, compounded by the fanatical ISIS slashing and burning their across the north of Iraq.  North Korea does have a small nuclear arsenal (see #1 above).  The real problem here is a likely mixing of several of the above, with a heavy dose of religious war.  PREPARATION:  Similar to #1 and #4 above – a broader conflict could result in shortages and rationing. 

7) Localized natural disaster:  I could list all of the biblical plagues here, but use your imagination.  Massive earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, solar EMP events, horrific hurricanes, flooding, etc. – all weaken the fabric of the nation and make it more vulnerable to other national security threats.  PREPARATION:  Similar to #1 and #4 above

8) Surprise attack:  (e.g. Pearl Harbor, 911) – while unlikely in this age of constant intelligence, it is still possible.  If this happens, the attack will likely come from a non-state group, e.g. al Qaeda instigating and pulling off 911.  PREPARATION:  Trust, but verify.  Keep your head up and use methods similar to #1 and #4 above

9) Hybrid threat:  I’m specifically thinking of a natural or enemy triggered EMP (#7) which, by itself could be catastrophic.  Combine an EMP event with a surprise cyber and or localized surprise terror attack and very bad things could result.  PREPARATION:  Similar to #1 and #4 above

10) Cosmic natural disaster:  Think 2012 Mayan prophecies here – a comet, asteroid, or Planet 9-disturbed Oort Cloud debris raining down on tiny, defenseless planet Earth.  While infrequent in historical occurrences, such things have happened in the past and some of those events likely impacted modern humans and our ancestors.  PREPARATION:  long-term bunker/tunnel survival plan.

The best human tactic is to plan realistically but act idealistically, or, as the old motto pronounces, “prepare for the worst and hope for the best! 

All in all, it was a fairly complete list.  But I have one more to add:

11.  Hillary Clinton wins the presidency.

That would ensure at least #4 and this, in turn, would trigger others.

But in the meantime, I’m preparing for Life Under Clinton.  Because like BREXIT hype, the fix is already in.  You just aren’t on the distro list.

BREXIT ON, MARKETS SHAKEN
Coping: With the “Free Lunch Crowd”