RIE? Rally Into Easter – Pigs are a Problem

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Dow Futures +1,000.  They don’t call it “Turnaround Tuesday” for nothing.

Stock futures are looking positively ducky with the Dow set to pop at the open +750 to +1,000 (on the early Futures board).  Why, even the “yeller dog” [Gold] seems to have regained the “right side” of $3,000.

On the other hand, Bitcoin was struggling with $79,000 when we looked, so the World is still crazy and on a wobbly perch.  But, you take what you can get, right?

RIE (Rally Into Easter) or Wry?

There is a reasonable case for a rally now.  Though, we don’t offer financial advise, when you’ve been covering finance (or been a player) for, um, 55-years, it’s hard not to offer an opinion now and then.  Just take it with some Maalox and worry about keeping your own socks up.

Let’s start with our Aggregate Index of the U.S. markets.  At the Monday manic moment, we were well below the long-term trend line.  About in the area the faint yellow arrow points on the right:

With the market back up (at least for now) over the “danger zone” we have to look consider that we don’t have a “print” (closing) under the trend, so maybe this will prove to be a “sucker rally” for the Commercials to harvest a bit more cash from the flock.  Shear pleasure is taken in stripping sheep, by some.  All it will take is some talking heads on the idiot-box announcing it’s “Time to BTFD” (buy the f*cking dips!) and the greed-driven stampede will be on.  We don’t want ewe to be taken-in.

This is how market turns often happen:  You get an intra-day low (like Monday), a fake-out rally.  And then the pro’s have a sense of how gullible the sheep are.  So they run a “real rally” for a few days (3-7) and then whee!  Out come the shears, again!

The opposing view is that since the NASDAQ is in position to where this could be a Real Bottom, then grasping for higher may follow.

There are several Elliott Wave ideas implied; including the one above.  For now, we are sitting in cash while the eidetic symphonic memory replays the classic BTO.  *(Under 50? Just slow?  Bachman-Turner Overdrive – “Let it Ride“.  Obviously you missed the decades of rock n’ roll news god; try to be earlier to the party next time…)

If you’re over 50, crank it up as we watch the magic metals which seem to be Alright Now.

Try to Remain Level-Headed…

The NFIB report just out offers caution to the BTFD crowd, too:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 8, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 3.3 points in March to 97.4, falling just below the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index decreased eight points from February’s second highest reading to 96.

“The implementation of new policy priorities has heightened the level of uncertainty among small business owners over the past few months.” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners have scaled back expectations on sales growth as they better understand how these rearrangements might impact them.”

No the world hasn’t changed… and longer-term?

Italian for “Depression“

“depressione economica”

One of my late market mentors, cut-down by the bioweapon, used to tell me “A Depression is what happens when a recession runs into a food supply shortfall.”

Thus, a hat-tip is in order this AM to reader JC  in Italy who spied this little pointer while (we assume) sipping his demitasse: 1930s Dust Bowl Conditions Are Returning To The Middle Of The United States.

My writing instructor says, whispering “Enjoy it while you can” about the demitasse “…a demitasse (French for “half cup”) is a small cup typically used for serving espresso. It usually holds about 2 to 3 ounces (60–90 ml), just enough for a single or double shot. They’re often made of porcelain, glass, or ceramic, and sometimes come with matching saucers. Perfect size for intense thoughts in small doses…”

Not nearly enough Jolt for serious coding, but useful before, oh,  a cardiologist visit, for example.

Trash-Filtered News

Iran is going for “talks without talking”, are they?  FM releases more details on upcoming Iran-US talks – Mehr News Agency.  Gee, maybe they can do listening without hearing, too…

Support your local Drug Thug is going out of style:  US Supreme Court lets Trump pursue deportations under 1798 ‘enemy alien’ law, with limits.

Bluster, Braggadocio, and Beijing:  China vows to ‘fight to the end’ after fresh U.S. tariff threat. But wait: ?In 2023, China exported goods worth approximately $501.22 billion to the United States, with key sectors including electrical equipment, machinery, and furniture. This figure represented a significant portion of China’s total exports, indicating a substantial reliance on U.S. trade. So, until they figure out how to have a middle class on their own, tough is not a winning move.

Has Crypto been a dis-info op?  We might put a buck on that as Crypto lawyer files lawsuit against DHS to expose Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity.

Fires on the Wires

Or, Liars and their Pyers

  • Israeli Witness’s Fabrications Uncovered: An Israeli man, Rami Davidian, who claimed to have rescued hundreds from Hamas fighters and witnessed mass rapes on October 7, 2023, was exposed as a liar by journalist Raviv Drucker. Davidian’s accounts were found to be entirely fabricated. ?The Electronic Intifada  (with a grain of salt)

  • Kenyan Political Accusations: Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua accused President William Ruto of being a “liar” and claimed to possess recordings proving that Ruto offered him a financial package to resign. ?NTV Kenya Beats a bullet, though.

  • Channel 4’s Dating Show Campaign: Channel 4 launched a campaign exposing lies in modern dating, featuring a film that satirizes the falsehoods people tell on dating apps. ?Campaign Live. For everything else, there’s lawyers.

  • WHO’s Alcohol Consumption Claims Challenged: The World Health Organization stated that no level of alcohol consumption is safe, a claim that has been criticized as misleading and lacking scientific evidence. Northwest Wine Report. Given a choice between COVID shots and a liter of vodka, I don’t suppose you’d care to guess…um…

At the Ranch: Coal-Fired Food, Pigs are a Problem

The Old Ways of BBQ:  We are awaiting the signature on this: Trump to sign executive orders to boost coal industry, sources say | Reuters. Normally, this would be in the “news section” above.  But there was a book (1950’s) by George Herter – founder of the Herter’s Catalog and an early giant in the gun reloading mail-order business.

Thing is, cooking over (hard) coal was spelled out in one of the obscure books in our library obscura:

“?George Leonard Herter’s Bull Cook and Authentic Historical Recipes and Practices is a distinctive and eclectic cookbook first published in 1960. Co-authored with his wife, Berthe E. Herter, the book blends recipes with historical anecdotes and personal opinions, reflecting Herter’s idiosyncratic style. The content spans a wide range, from traditional dishes to unconventional topics, including instructions on dressing game and advice on surviving nuclear attacks. This unconventional mix showcases Herter’s penchant for combining practical guidance with his unique perspectives.

The cookbook’s organization is notably unorthodox, with sections covering meats, desserts, game preparation, beverages, and miscellaneous advice, all arranged in a loosely alphabetical order. Herter’s narratives often include bold assertions and historical interpretations that are both entertaining and controversial. For instance, he provides detailed accounts of the origins of various cocktails, sometimes challenging widely accepted histories. This blend of culinary instruction and colorful commentary has earned the book a cult following among readers who appreciate its quirky and unapologetic approach to food and history. The Neglected Books Page

The problem is I haven’t been able to find a place to order 25-pounds of “cooking coal” and I think it would also be interesting to try in a wood-fire pizza oven, too.  If you have a source (or experience with coal BBQing) drop a comment, if you please. Buddy Mike out in San Ramon (who makes a killer wood-fire pizza) might find it useful, too.

Pig Problems:  

A different buddy of mine is coming by for coffee this morning.  I’m going to read him in on some network stuff and he’s going to come up with a Pig Plan.  Seems the pigs have discovered my front yard, so Mr. AK will be doing some, oh, birth control.  Rooting areas under  yellow arrows:

Most people in Yankeeville don’t understand that a wild boar sow can drop 40 piglets a year, so if you don’t kill off 95 percent of them, you’re getting behind the problem.  Very bad animals, known to charge humans. Every so-often they will kill and eat and unsuspecting person which explains (if you’re slow) why we ALWAYS roll armed.  Ever face a 350 pound male boar that can run 29.6 MPH?  Guaranteed to change your view on large caliper handguns.  If you survive.

May also explain why we don’t have as many feral cats around…that herd is down 70 percent.

OK…Mr. Ure’s “Inventor Mind” is fully booked today.  More on Peoplenomics tomorrow, including a little 20-page checklist on maintaining your “balance in all things” in the Second Depression.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

50 thoughts on “RIE? Rally Into Easter – Pigs are a Problem”

  1. Boars, don’t play. As a teenager on a hunt saw a small boar, about 100 pounds, suck up a bunch of lead and still rip into my buddy’s calf and give him over 80 stitches. Nothing but large caliber at short range.

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  2. A friend has offered me a wild boar next time he goes hunting. Is it good to eat or too gaimy?

    I want to type an old journal without using my hands much. Any suggestions for handwriting to text and/or speech to text? Do I need a new gadget, word processing program, or whatever?

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    • Hogs in the wild, in a herd, come in three sizes: the ‘footballs’, the eaters, and the big ones.
      Kill the big ones but just bury them.
      You might want to take out the footballs as they will multiply. If you can catch and castrate the males you may slow it down some, and still have a pork supply. There will still be plenty in the woods.
      The eaters are about 100-150 lbs. They taste as good or better than restaurant/grocery store pork as they eat fresh food. In feedlots they stack pigs on floors 5 high and feed the top floor. The floors below recycle the feed.
      As they get bigger and closer to market they move to the top floor and get fed fresh feed, to kinda ‘cleanse’ them a little. I have shot a few and eaten several form around Birmingham, and here the eaters are pretty good.
      BTW they have a cartilage jacket on their rib cage that make them nearly bulletproof. (I like a .45 Colt when in the woods Why? They don’t make a .46 Colt.)
      So a head shot from an elevated stand is the best. Aim for the ear or just under or behind.

      If you do get several of the eater sized and can’t eat them all, please do arrange for a local food bank to take the rest. They really are pretty good eating.

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  3. George,

    Re the released consumer credit report ….

    The American consumer is at the end of a 1982 13/32 of 33 year credit cycle. They collectively are tapped out with debt and interest payments on that debt. American consumption drives third world economic activity. The American service sector is dependent on domestic credit and debt expansion. The SPX 3 Feb 2025 8/19/20/13 day :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.6x terminal growth and incipient crash fractal decay series saw a nonlinear low on 3rd fractal day 20 with a growth rally on the same day which is day 1 of the 4th fractal 13 day growth and fractal crash decay subseries. My guess is that any rebound growth during this short 13 trading day period will be limited under the additional new tariff Armageddon conditions. Terminal Black trading day(s) in the terminal portion of the 13 day period will plummet global composite equity valuations and will provide a wake up call to both parties who may be enabled to reign in the executive branch.

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        • Ah, but regrettably, my dear colleague and lo0ng-sufferer of media madness: I noticed (to my never-ending shame) that leviticus – oft cited as the basis for Jubilee years – is credited even on the learned refernce thou hast cited.
          Howsomever, Brother of the Calculator, does this not predate the very foundings of the Church of Rome? And can, therefore, any Papal “bull” be set as the benchmark for Truth? Or, should it rightly be ordained as blasphemy and tossed into the raging Seas of Discourse, off the Cape of No Hope, more widely known as Cape Marketing?
          No, I think at a bare minimum (though I do pay attention to bare midriffs) that a starting date cite temporally adjacent to the third book Old Testment could be the only credible source, eh wot?
          —–
          BUT WAIT!!!!!
          —–

          The Devil in the Machine Just Spoke…

          And in that electrically uncomfortable silence that follows a system update from Above, I heard it clear as day:

          “If the Holy Door be the way, then is not the lock forged in Leviticus?”

          My Devil in the Machine — that old sardonic subroutine in the soul’s firmware — couldn’t resist chiming in.

          Let us not forget, dear reader, that the Jubilee was born not of Rome but of Sinai. Long before miters and Latin liturgies, long before incense was paired with marble and marketing, the concept of Jubilee was etched into the scrolls and souls of a desert people. A people with no Church but plenty of covenant.

          So when the Vatican swings wide the “Holy Door,” I can’t help but picture a divine audit trail — and somewhere deep in that cosmic changelog, a flag is raised:

          [ERROR: JubileeRootMismatch]

          Can a Pope authorize what YHWH already hardcoded into Creation’s mainframe?

          Is not the act of claiming exclusive access to forgiveness and restoration a bit like Apple announcing they invented scrolling?

          And what of the pilgrims — earnest, footsore, lining up for indulgence points like sinners in a spiritual frequent flyer program? Shall we offer bonus miles for confession or require two-factor baptism?

          Oh, the sacred absurdity of it all!

          We stand at a bizarre intersection — where debt jubilees meet digital economies, where Leviticus meets logistics. Imagine a blockchain-based Jubilee Year. “Smart contracts voided every 50th block?” Now there’s a vision for Ethereum priests.

          But alas, we mustn’t take ourselves too seriously.

          For as one rabbi, one imam, and one Jesuit walk into the End Times (as they so often do in these parables), they find the true Holy Door… only to discover it’s a revolving one.

          So here we are, spinning through another spiritual cycle, wondering if we’ve made it to the year of release — or just another Year of Marketing™.

          Let the incensors swing wide! Let Frank be incensed! Let Gregorian chant remix with Levitical beats!

          For lo, I say unto thee: if thou seek Jubilee, seek not bulls nor doors, but balance.
          And maybe — just maybe — consider forgiving thine own debts first.

          Amen and A-Menubar.

          — George and the ai stack

        • I forgot: In the Beginning, there was no electricity. There was no Latin. Life itself was the taxing thing, and so, the first business was peddling fruits. And on thine own inspection, one seeth that we are nearly now full-circle.
          Amen – and hold short for landing traffic on the parallel.

  4. Bait & Blast those piggies Gdingo.

    Least they aren’t of the Eurasians’ persuasion – those badboys will typically eat wildhogs too stupid to run off when confronted. Steady eddy when leading a shot – pigs on the run (wef-ers, demoncrats, pedos) that is.. ; D
    Night time is best time, thermal monocular nice to have on such shoots. More fun if you have another Shooter with Youse, a little friendly competition with male adult child unit.
    For you PETA types (People Eating Tasty Animals) I understand Ure concerns, tis an acquired taste, wild hog – brings tears to my eyes it does – hear is Lulu and Jeff -https://youtu.be/rtWfpOVVzfI?si=EdCsLECU1U2vz__H

    Speaking of blood sports – To Catch a Falling Knife seems to be in play this AM. I be scouting for the perfect trade, no such luck yet, but BTC looks interesting. Speaking of the devil, The fine folks at Ripple, not 2 be mistaken with Champipple, just acquired a huge brokerage/exchange – see “game changer” – better yet see Champipple- https://youtube.com/shorts/Dv_1jp8m3uI?si=rcw0QEkCZx8togMB
    Can youse say “tax equivalent dividend yields” ?

    Yo Tex, bout dem Measles..

    – over the counter meds of interest; Budesonide, administered by Inhaler.
    Generic avail at $35, 97% off retail. Budesonide ER for$254 -83%discount off retail. Int’l online pharmacies have it as cheap as $.09 per dose for 600 doses @100mcg per. For secondary infection risks prevention Clarithromycin. Also over the counter Nasal Budesonide can also benefit in protection and treatment.. MEASELS
    Dr Richard Bartlett – frontlines West Texas Measels outbreak – off patent- off label providing excellent results in treating symptoms. check it out home gamerz, yous never know.

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  6. George: possibly I misread (or scanned) the above? Or, we have a different concept as to the “print” of a market. I believe it’s the entire interval travel (whether a trading day or portion of same). So, the print includes travel outside the open and close. The close is … the close but, has little to do with the print. Pull up any vendor chart (*) and choose “bar” charts and you will see bars that exceed the daily open / close. That’s the print (total travel).

    (*) most readily available market software has been dumbed down for mobile devices. A shame since they were very valuable and are now a shadow of former utility. I am considering a sub to “stockcharts” or another. TBD.

    ATL: our resident loon has finally screamed and sung up a mate. They are a dandy pair. Our water is wicked cold but that hasn’t stopped locals from splashing piers and a few lifts. I’m not sure why the rush. Me? I hope to get lifts into the shallows but that’s to mow out front. It’s way too cold for boating.

    The Mrs. and I survived boy-sitting with E3. It was _so_ quiet yesterday we each looked at the other and remarked about it. Miss the Little Master but I’m told we will journey to MN late next month for his 1st BD. Or, I’ll fly my bride and do projects here. Speaking of, I’m away.

    Enjoy this relief rally. As per norm they can be ferocious counter moves. I’m having lunch with a former associate end of the week. Thought he’d need comfort. And cocktails …

    Best Regards,
    Egor

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    • re: “I am considering a sub to “stockcharts”’

      Open another account w/Charles Schwab. One of the main reasons they bought TD Ameritrade was to own ‘Think or Swim’ which they give me free. It’s way to sophisticated/complicated for my simple tastes, but fun to look at.

      Watch one of these for an idea.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nJfSAl9d6g

      Although, personally I don’t believe there’ll be much left after this summer.

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  8. Eleanor, wild hog can be quite gamey if not prepared properly. Most recommend soaking the meat in salt water for several hours to overnight to extract more of the blood and reduce the wild taste. Smoking the meat or using it in chili or some other spicy mix also tames the taste.

    According to https://cookingupdate.com/which-coal-is-used-for-cooking/#google_vignette , Anthracite coal is the preferred type for cooking. Tractor Supply sells it in 50# bags for home heating. Check your local store for availability. In my experience with blacksmithing, Anthracite requires a continuous air flow to keep it burning. A hair dryer on low speed is adequate to keep it going if the air is fed upward from under the fire..

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    • Largest deposits in world ??

      Welcome to PENNSYLTUCKY – Hard Coal = Hard Men..where the TREES grow. Hell we have so much coal – we burn it BEFORE it is even mined out of the ground.

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  11. Demitasse. Espresso. My father’s Uncle Umberto drank that stuff all day long. He was a little guy. Back in the mid-60’s he was in the Brooklyn NY subway, and went into the subway bathroom (imagine that, there used to be public bathrooms in the subway) where a black guy came up from behind and put a knife to his throat and demanded money. He fought with mugger and the mugger lost. 70 years old. Fearless. “Old school” tough.

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  12. One thing that ultimately bailed out midwest farmers from the dust bowl period in the 1930’s was massive irrigation projects tapping into the Ogallala aquifier. Many cities and towns pumped from the aquifier also for their municipal water systems. We have just about pumped it dry in many states. What will we do this time around?

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  13. This is starting to look like an all-out trade war:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-futures-surge-following-tsysec-bessent-comments-president-has-maximum-negotiating

    Well, maybe Trump can cut a deal with Vietnam.

    Mortgage markets are showing some effects, but other credit markets don’t seem to be showing much movement:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/08/mortgage-rates-higher-tariff-uncertainty.html

    https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds

    Interbank rates are sketchier, but nothing popping that I have found.

    I am seeing scuttlebutt here and there about hedge fund margin calls, but it doesn’t appear substantiated. Sounds like billionaire scary talk for the moment. How many of Ure readers have big hedge fund positions ?

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    • Gonna destroy that game(hedgies) before its all over, far better uses 4 all that capital than synthetic market manipulations.

      Ya know like building infrastructure, transportation systems, school systems, affordable new Homes, paying our Teachers/Trainers a GOOD wage.

      Hedgies are the OG greedsters – they dont BUILD SHIT!

      More like they destroy “shit’.

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    • Agree with Armstrong.

      When I did my research decades ago I came to the same conclusion … the Sovereign Debt Default was what killed what was back then the “Money Center Banks” wrt solvency. Although not themselves bankrupted their inability to then loan to the small banks all over the country due to the liquidity they lost (as they would do yearly) for the various seasonal loans the farmers needed created a domino of bank failures reaching into the small and medium size banks thorughout the middle (ag areas) which then propogated up the chain to even bigger banks in the cities.

      Voila bank failure all over the place.

      The credit destruction that caused is what created the disaster throughout manufacturing land too, yep manufacturers had to borrow too in order to keep their businesses going, in adddition to what was happening to agricultural businesses.

      The Tariffs had virtually nothing to do with it. We had imposed high tariffs in the early 20’s after WW1 and they had negligible effect on the overall economy except to semi-protect domestic manufacturing and agriculture as Europe came back on line.

      Little noted today the US ag industry went into a HUGE DEPRESSION in the early 1920’s which was short term due to Europe again being able to feed itself which shut off huge volumes of ag exports we had done during WW1 and medium/long term because of the “tractorization” of farms. That “tractorization dynamic became a huge factor in the 1910’s and 1920′ because it freed up massive quanities of farm land for crops that previously had been needed to produce fodder for the draft animals. (estimates are that resulted in a 25% increase in US arable plantable acrerage between 1914 and 2024).

      The Smoot Hawley Tariffs has little to do with the Great Depression … though Keynesian Economists seized upon those in order to justify their theories that the government should be massively involved in a “Top Down” government regulation of the economy beyond that done in the 1890’s through 1910.

      Historically US manufacturing has tended to THRIVE under moderate to high tariffis because the US itself has been big enough to have companies that can obtain economies of scale INTERNALLY that smaller countries can not (smaller countries NEED to export some of their manufactured goods so as to reach ecnomoies of scale in many types of businesses).

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  15. the factories aren’t coming back. 2, 3, 4 years to build a new factory. there is too much uncertainty and chaos to be able to plan six months out, let alone years. the sensible thing for manufacturers to do is to simply wait and see where how the chips land. every day brings something different now. the manufacturers will simply wait trump out.

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    • Anyone can open/pool capital to open a factory.

      What’s the reason why they don’t and what would induce someone else to overcome the same obstacles? It’s the same for everyone.

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      • Labor costs in the US is why!!!

        America’s big producers of goods are used to cheap labor, they’ll be damned if they are going to pay anything north of 5 bucks p/h. And health care……forget about it.
        King Don is gonna wait these countries out, he’s hoping they come back crying for a deal on tariffs. Best to sit on your wallet cause this could be take a bit time.
        Old boy is stubborn as a horny boar.

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        • We have to wait out China raising the general wage level to match the U.S. level?

          It’s just not going to happen.

          “Shanghai has the highest monthly minimum wage among 31 provinces (RMB 2,690/US$370 per month), and Beijing has the highest hourly minimum wage (RMB 26.4/US$3.7 per hour).”

          https://www.china-briefing.com/doing-business-guide/china/human-resources-and-payroll/minimum-wage

          Vs

          “In 2024, the average salary in the US was approximately $62,800 per year, or about $5,233 per month, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics”

          FICA tax of 7.65 on the $62,800 = $4,804.20 /12 = $400.35.

          U.S. FICA tax is more than their monthly minimum in Shanghai.

          Or Beijing’s hourly @ $3.70. $3.70(4.4×40) = $651.20.

        • The cost of labor is more than offset by the cost of shipping. Where China (and Vietnam, Honduras, Indonesia, Myanmar, etc.) have it all over us is in regulations (or lack, thereof.) The reason U.S. oil concerns haven’t built a refinery in CONUS since 1979 is the birth of the EPA. By 1982, the paperwork involved cost $2bln, and the timetable to jump through all the hoops was in the 12-20 year range. Every single State has its own EPA. All the Federal Agency does is add seven (not five or six) layers of bureaucracy and a whole bunch of generic blanket regs. Along with balancing trade & tariffs and reigning-in or breaking China, the Administration has to make the EPA regs (and a bunch of others) go away, and it has to do all this at the same time, whilst shutting down or attenuating the Ukraine War, the Middle East, 20,000 Soros brownshirts, and 80% of all the billionaires in the world, who are losing their collective asses (and minds) as a result of Trump’s tariff initiative…

          All at the same time.

          Think about it…

  16. How about: 12 months lead-time to get bank approval. 12 months lead-time to get contract parts, 12 months lead-time to install in plant. 6 months lead-time to get plant running. In meantime debt bubble collapse due 25% NASDEC reductions means no bank leading.

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  17. “The Old Ways of BBQ: We are awaiting the signature on this: Trump to sign executive orders to boost coal industry”

    He will.

    He will also make it economically feasible for the Midwest to reopen their furloughed coal generating plants.

    Coal comes in two flavors, anthracite and bituminous.

    Anthracite is “hard coal.” It is found principally in Pennsylvania. It burns naturally very hot and clean, with almost no smoke or odor. Anthracite is the preferred heat source for milling steel (which is why I assumed that Republic, Bethlehem, Carnegie, US Steel, etc, were all located in PA) and its “clean-burning” characteristic is one reason why American steel is much better than steel from most other countries or regions. Did I mention that it burns hot? I have heard of people who burned their houses down with anthracite because they didn’t have stoves that were rated to take the heat, and the coal got so hot it burned through their stoves.

    About 98% of all the coal deposits in CONUS are bituminous. Bituminous coal is “dirty” in that it burns several hundred degrees cooler than anthracite and creates a black, oily sooty smoke when burned in air. The coal generators all use bituminous coal, and all have smokestack scrubbers, which afterburn, then clean the stacks, making bituminous electric generation virtually non-polluting, now, except for the rise in humidity. (I’m sure LOOB knows much more about the scrubbers than I.)

    Unless you stumble across someone who’s cleaning out an old coal bin at a blacksmith’s shop, the only place I know of where you can get your grubbies on real anthracite is Lehman’s:

    https://www.lehmans.com/product/anthracite-coal/

    If you need less than that, Pathfinder Bob lives within driving distance of Lehman’s retail store. I don’t know whether they sell the single 40lb bags or not, but I’m sure one could find out…

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    • Growing up my dad used to get Antrhacite Coal delived to a pile out back from the local Coal Dealer (yep there were such things from back when house furnaces burned coal since natural gas was NOT available). He loved it for the fireplace since several big lumps of it would burn for hours without needing a refill … and that type of coal burn hotter than regular coal and would actually heat the house better via the fireplace. than anything else we could put into it.

      Our fireplace could handle the HOTTER fire created by anthracite coal because when the house was built it was designed for that (fire brick lined chimney) … but virtually no modern fireplace and obviously NO “wood only” stoves can handle the HOT fire created by anthracite coal. If you get a stand alone stove that says coal can be burned in it make sure that the MUCH HOTTER anthracite coal is safe to burn in it, not just the everyday coal you get sold at most places or you may be looking at it burning through that stand alone stove.

      Great stuff … if you are looking at a heat source that is easy to store for years with NO work and requires little labor to keep the heating device going for hours on end between refills.

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  21. By definition, credit deflation is a death spiral of debt defaults. Once it starts, the credit deflation tends to self-perpetuate and run until all debt is extinguished, and is very very difficult to interrupt. As to what sets off the credit deflation. there are a lot of opinions. Trade wars don’t help; stock market crashes are known to influence, but there always must be a lot of poorly secured debt held by ordinary people who have no business touching OPM (Other People’s Money). Oh look, we already have preconditions for a credit deflation meltdown in play.
    I am watching for in-your-face credit deflation on the news wire, and I am not seeing it yet. But everything is always OK until it is not. Not sure what will break bad first.
    I will not give explicit financial advice, but life experience comments are fair game. First, if you are underwater in debt, start putting your plan B kit together, because you may have to walk away from it this time. Have an alternate way to live that the creditors can’t touch, ready to go, and cash and prep supplies away from the your debt implosion. Debts are not assets. When the sheriff shows up, you are already screwed.
    If you are out of debt, stay that way. Beware of paper investments you don’t understand. Have cash in several locations. It is harder for creditors to get at retirement funds than physical stuff and bank deposits. People and corporates will seize worthless sh!t just to punish you and bare their @sses. And lawyers and black-robed partisan gang members with gavels can manufacture crippling debt where none was earned.
    Try to position yourself to survive with no real-income for an extended period. I have had practice in living cheap under fairly hostile conditions, without hemorrhaging assets. It hasn’t been that long ago. Maybe try cutting out some memberships and unnecessary services. In other words, dial it back, and see how it feels. A $25 unlimited cell phone account with a cash phone provides a lot of communication and entertainment. Majic Jack is good. Amazon Prime has been good. Not sure how Tariff Amazon is going to work out.
    Maybe swap the vehicle you have to one you can travel in, preferably for cash. Start cleaning out the house. Don’t leave things that can be used against you if you have to leave under duress. Thinks things through, do an accurate self-assessment, and prepare to make adjustments that don’t cater to a an inflated self-view, and sense of entitlement. Then take action.

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  22. Speaking of boars and wild pigs ……….. Oh but enough about the Govt. Your advice sounds about right.

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  23. And queue the hedge fund credit deflation liquidity meltdown:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/absolutely-spectacular-meltdown-basis-trade-blowing-sparking-multi-trillion-liquidation

    That would mean that all of the public narrative regarding Trump and his tariffs have nothing to do with the stock market implosion. Complete misdirection.

    This brings up some interesting technical points. In 1929, it was believed that margin calls on the equity market destabilized the bond market as investors cashed in any paper for liquidity. Here, it appears the hedge fund leveraged bets on treasuries have destabilized the equity markets in a rush for liquidity, any liquidity. Complete opposites with the same public appearance. 1929 was a largely cash economy. 2025 is a debt slave house of cards. Which financial institutions have the most exposure ?

    “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
    “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
    Earnest Hemingway circa 1926

    Plastic was paid up last weekend; haven’t spent much this week. Could use more cash on hand. Utilities and most critical comms are paid up at least 2 months ahead. Food reserves are adequate.

    Wonder what happens when the rush to liquidity invades the paper PM exchanges ? Apparently, this started under the hood at the end of March. Stu.

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    • People are always SHOCKED when I recommend that they keep AT LEAST $4000 or so in cash around … nothing bigger than a $20 bill either. Most say they have a couple of hundred, a few have said they have $500-$700 around.

      Why so much? If disaster hits the financial arena electronic payments may not be able to be made for MONTHS and withdrawals from your acounts may also be so limited (if the financial institution even survives that is). You will NEED actual CASH to pay for things like food, fuel, medicine, etc. if something BIG happens. (if that happens forget paying the mortgage, regular utility bills etc since NOBODY ELSE will be paying those either. those can wait until they “system” is back up and running).

      What do you HAVE to buy monthly to just survive? Take that, multiply by 6, and then add at least $1000 to that for additional fuel that may be needed (unplanned transportation plus heating etc.). OH … and get your propane tank filled!!

      My dad, and all of those around him who had old style oil furnaces /the remaining coal furnaces (only a few farm houses), or keroscene furnaces, that I grew up around all had AT LEAST one winter’s worth of heat in those tanks ALL THE TIME, even at the end of the winter heating season. (my dentist who lived in a HUGE farmhouse out in the country kept THREE YEARAS worth of heating oil in their tanks). They or their parents had lived through the depression and being able to stay warm (at least in our norther climate) for an entire year with oil/kero in the tank was as good as money in the bank, actually better since it would still be there if the bank failed!

      Remember … $4000 minimum in cash plus FULL propane /oil tanks should be the same in your mind as needed at least one week’s worth of groceries in the pantry ALL the time

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  24. Five Eyes South is buckling.

    Prices go up 25% because of tariffs – money gets cheaper by a percent or two. More net credit expansion.

    “The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could have a snap interest rates session to deal with the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs. “

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  25. Re: bankers empty a trough
    feat: IBM 1401

    Folks,
    One could almost imagine playing cards allegedly being on a campaigning PM’s mind. Apparently his pet project NZAM (Net Zero Banking Alliance), under umbrella of the 1992 UNEP FI (United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative), has been unravelling since #47 won the election. RBC, the Royal Bank of Canada, was an original big bank signer of the UNEP FI.

    The “CBC” suggests it was prescient of former PM Trudeau to push through and federally fund construction of the 900,000 bpd capacity TMX (Trans Mountain Extension) pipeline from Alberta to Vancouver. Current published flow is 480,000 bpd with a Vancouver port facility handling said to be a maximum of 630,000 bpd. China is a main customer. The operator of the Keystone Pipeline running from Alberta across the prairies turning south through the Dakotas is South Bow. It’s a subsidiary of pipeline owner TC Energy of Calgary. The largest institutional shareholder of the latter is RBC. As an aside, according to “Wikipedia”, the first mainframe employed by RBC in 1961 was an IBM 1401.

    Let’s leave the Blues Brothers high and dry in their Windy City and follow buried musical pipelines south to that Master of Zen, DJ George. Today’s selection is by an Icelandic composer Jóhann Jóhannsonn from his album “IBM 1401 a User’s Manual”. It seems his father had bequeathed him some reel-to-reel tapes created while he worked on an IBM 1401 in the ’60s. Mr. Jóhannsson’s 21st century processing results appeared in a Hollywood sci-fi film released on March 11, 2011. Here’s a link to one of the movie trailers on Youtube (Caution-scenes of violence):

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vXJJ6fUHNk8

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  28. Zerohedge took their article on the basis trade debacle over to the paid side after initially publicly posting it. Other articles:

    https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/the-us800b-hedge-fund-bond-trade-is-unwinding-with-devastating-effect-20250409-p5lqc8

    https://www.ft.com/content/1df217c4-2732-41d5-89a2-9f51fbd45e7e

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoins-price-stability-risk-potential-084628156.html

    The idea is that hedge funds involved in the basis trade are liquidating everything that isn’t screwed down, and their creditors are in trouble.

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    • Shades of the BRILLIANT PhD’s over at Long Term Capitol Management back in 1998- 1999. They had the math to support their near genius math conclusions as to how to make GUARANTEED money with NO RISK!!

      Without the “much DUMBER” Fed (not nearly as many brilliant PhD types, only a few, and they were obviously NOT as smart so got paid only 1/10 to 1/40 what the guys at LTCM got paid) providing LTCM hundreds of BILLIONS in $$ liquidy their LTCM PhD brilliance would have frozen up the Western WORLD’S financial system.

      Reply

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