Spring Broke

by

A “tell me it ain’t so” for the doubters of our work… Or for those who thought we were nuts walking out on the Corporate World in 2003,  Or moving to the woods. Or stocking up for trouble. Or…

And just like that, the rhythm of history taps us on the shoulder again. The 1929 comparison isn’t about crystal balls — it’s about pattern recognition. Same psychology, same hubris, same rollover in progress. Different names, same games.

We’re not calling for a carbon-copy collapse — but when the tape rhymes this closely, even the blindfolded can feel the breeze from the cliff edge. That first dead-cat bounce in ’29? We’re right in the zone now. Watch for a snapback… but don’t mistake it for salvation. This is where traps are set.

For now, here’s what the New Normal looks like:

Oh,, and you still see that line (and faint yellow arrow) that I drew for you Friday?

Three swings at the Future now:

  • We could stop AT the trend support.
  • We could fall UNDER trend support.  Then, either rally back and resume down 0 the Easter Rally hope festival before Israel pops Iran…
  • We could turn UP into the close and have a barn-burner “Turn-around Tuesdsay.”

Me? I don’t need the stress – BP is high enough, thank you.

Nikkei 225 was down 7.83 percent overnight – which translates to a 2,600-odd point loss (if you have a yen for specifics).  We can see where a drop in the BoJ rate – which would support re-entry to the Yen-stocks carry trade could be along. Japan needs people playing their game to keep their pension funds and whatnot liquid.  They have a mess of demographic problems.  So I asked “the stack” about it:

“Japan’s long-term outlook is boxed in by an aging population, stagnant birth rates, and decades of monetary quicksand. The Bank of Japan can cut rates, sure — but they’re already dancing on the floorboards. Any re-entry into the yen-carry trade might juice the Nikkei short-term, but it’s a temporary sugar high masking structural rot.

With more retirees than workers and shrinking domestic consumption, Japan is increasingly reliant on foreign capital and market momentum to keep the illusion alive. Their pension system is a time bomb wrapped in low yields and wishful thinking. Unless there’s a demographic miracle or productivity revolution, the only viable play is to keep exporting volatility and hope the world keeps biting.”

So, I asked my playful processor pals “Which countries are in the running to be the site of the 1929 Depression Replay of the Great Crash in Future history books, huh? Give me there odds…”

“Ah, the honor of imploding first. A grim coronation, but history loves a headline crash. Here’s your Odds Table for the Next Great Historic Market Crash™, current as of this quiet-but-tense Monday:

? Crash Watch – April 7, 2025 Odds Board

Country Odds Rationale
JA Japan 3:1 Aging population, deflationary death spiral, pension risk, and a Nikkei teetering after a 7.83% drop. Carry trade unwind could yank the rug hard.
CN China 4:1 Real estate bubble still deflating, youth unemployment high, export slowdown, and opaque accounting. But tighter capital controls slow the visible crash.
EU Eurozone 6:1 Germany flirting with recession, ECB trapped between inflation and stimulus, and peripheral nations still wobbly. A sovereign debt spiral remains the sleeper.
US United States 8:1 We’re overdue on historical rhythm, and if the current “1929 echo” plays out, the bounce becomes the bait. However, dollar strength and liquidity delay the reckoning.
UK United Kingdom 12:1 Post-Brexit drift and fiscal messes are real, but the economy’s too small to trigger a global headline crash.
*  Wild Card: Emerging Markets 15:1 A fast collapse in Turkey, Argentina, or South Africa could send shockwaves, but they’re likely to be written off as localized flare-ups rather than “historic crash” material.

Meanwhile, did you see our “cryptocism” is coming in? Bitcoin tumbles below US$77,000 as fears trigger crypto rout…

This Week’s Tee Times

Future is always going into the rough, lately..  T-shot at 3 PM today is the Fed’s Consumer Debt report. Watch to see how it slices.  Will people sit on their wallets or keep on “spending to the ending?”

NFIB report tomorrow morning.  Fed Minutes 2 PM Wednesday.  Consumer prices Thursday.  PPI Friday.

Screaming at Streaming

We have always opted for “precision strike thinking” in the face of unwarranted hubris.  We sort of expect Israel to behave the same way.  As Iran insists on indirect nuclear talks with US while warning it will respond to use of force.  Iran’s rather expert at “running the clock” (*and playing folks like Obama for fools).  The talk clock is about run-out.  While we still think a rally from a solid trend line bounce is possible, a rally into Easter would sure tempt us into a long weekend short. Good Friday is 11 days out and markets will be closed…

RFK Jr. is not “bench warming in DC” as RFK Jr. visits epicenter of Texas measles outbreak after death of second child who was infected.

Mooned

Driven by a highly extensible mind can be very entertaining.  Especially with the odd news headline.  Like Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 3.8% chance of hitting the moon.  Won’t happen until December 22, 2032. But here’s an interesting “sci-fi exercise.”

Imagine the moon gets struck – and the orbit shifts a little.  Not a ton, but enough to make a change of tidal calculations on Earth.

Now, model as the long-expected “Global Coastal Event” and tell me what it looks like? Fellow author A,.G. Kimbrough ought to be able to sling out a real page-turner before we all go swimming… A kind of follow-on to his “Coastal Event Memories – Vol. 1”

What?

Think I’m a little deep into catastrophism?  Mean like the market’s aren’t?

Around the Ranch: Dream Work and the A.I. Take

This is long.  But it’s also interesting as hell, what happened this weekend.

The precis?  Well I had an absolutely incredible vivid as Life itself dream – and then I did a sit-down with my A.I. stack to analyze it.  But the story itself?  Well…mind-bending.  Elements of Bill & Ted meets Total Recall.

If you have time, you may enjoy reading it at (Mythos) A Visit to the Mine – Hidden Guild.

Write when you get rich and see you for turnaround Tuesday — maybe?

George@Ure.net

56 thoughts on “Spring Broke”

  1. “(if you have a yen for specifics)”

    Did you mean “(if you have a yen for Pacifics)” ?

  2. From the news screen –

    “US President Donald Trump once again called on the Federal Reserve (the Fed, the US central bank) this Monday to lower interest rates, that is, to reduce the price of money. He also attacked China for its response to the US tariff hike and accused the Asian giant of being “the biggest abuser” of the US.”

    Prices go up due to tariffs then an immediate call to lower rates making stuff more affordable. In the end it’s a net expansion of credit. What next – a $5,000 DOGE rebate deposit? Hahahaha…..

    The Werewolf game.

    The blame China syndrome rears again.

    China has lower costs built-in. The only way the U.S. can compete on a $ basis is to end the 1930’s Fed-Bux programs and reconstruct Hooverville.

    “Shanghai has the highest monthly minimum wage among 31 provinces (RMB 2,690/US$370 per month), and Beijing has the highest hourly minimum wage (RMB 26.4/US$3.7 per hour).”

    https://www.china-briefing.com/doing-business-guide/china/human-resources-and-payroll/minimum-wage

    • They, also have all that POLLUTION we exported over there 20 years ago.
      Same with India – incredibly dirty&filthy.

      Bad schiesse tends to build up in the environment, till unbeknownst to All, the sheeps start coming down with all kinds of illness, disease and cancers.
      “From USA with Love” – all dem Love Canals and yet to be designated superfund sites for the ChiComs enjoyment. Are we Americans, not some of the most generous peeps on the planet or what?

      Just axe the ukie nazis’..

  3. Private pension systems in the US are a not a time bomb; the companies are bought by the bottom fishers and refuse to pay pension obligations, and their mob lawyers invariably have a mob labor judge on speed dial, who will find a pretext to strip former employees of counsel at the first hearing. The only individuals with rights in a federal labor court are bargaining groups, where it becomes Ure mobsters vs their mobsters. But that doesn’t mean a mob judge won’t screw you anyway. Don’t count on former employers from paying off.

  4. The “WORD” of the day … “Margin Call”

    As the markets spiral down MORE “Margin Calls” go out, which leads to MORE selling which leads to MORE “Margin Calls”. A Rinse and Repeat cycle that will occur multiple times today.

    Eventually those who went short will decide to “Cover” their shorts so as to book their profits which will finally bring some buying back into the markets.

    For today the FED will stand aside and let the Markets de-leverage. Depending upon systemic risk, they don’t want the system itself be at risk of collapsing, at some point they will step in to ensure that liquidity becomes available for buying, which is probably tomorrow.

    Lots of customer money off to the sidelines too which can provide buying power too … at what price point will those people decide to send in their buy orders? Sometime later this week you should start to see some of that money appear, but that is LOW RISK money, which is why it is NOT in the markets currently so it will NOT move quickly.

    The “WORD” of the day … “Margin Call”

    • “Eventually those who went short will decide to “Cover” their shorts so as to book their profits ”

      I think that’s the difference between today and 1929. Back in 1929 the chips were the collateral. Once the stock market exceeded the value of the chips the system went teat to the sky.

      Today when longs lose, like the hourglass, shorts win. The monetary base doesn’t change.

      Later when credit is expanded to save the longs the existing pool of $s dilutes.

      • JIT just in time to usher in a new financial system, one with an open source immutable ledger. Recall the FRN and vet all laundering during the swap process. The old $ gets declared as counterfeit (look to all the FRNs issued by the 11 servers DOGE uncovered. Those issuances were not backed by T-Bills therefore they are made up Monopoly money). Oh wait a minute there is no more paper money in monopoly LOL. Got blockchain?

        You see homegamers? This is how thought shaping gets done. It leads us to believe our macro thematic on the crypto reset is correct. Not advice, just my perspective.

        https://www.hypefresh.com/monopolys-next-edition-moves-to-an-app-based-economy/

    • This is the BTFD crowd – too early. Watch the close and a downer at the Tuesday open – much likely but I’m at the 50 yd line sitting on a nice warm wallet.

      • It’s great to be early, with a cost basis that I can sit out and add to my stacks at my leisure. HODL is a beautiful thing when you have the luxury of accumulating since 2017. I’ll write when George.

      • To be clear I’ve been in (synthetic) cash position since 2017 waiting for the 1929 rhyme.… you see the ghosts of Smoot Hawley wandering around the halls of con gress lately lol?

        Got blockchain.

  6. Looks like China *might be willing to play hardball. The US has little to offer other than diluted consumer dollars and intellectual property (and they will steal both if possible).
    Whether China can get it’s payment system stabilized has yet to be seen. If they do, they may “Love us long time” …

    • WE will survive without China — won’t be fun, won’t be easy, but we can do it.

      China can NOT survive without the marketplace which is the U.S.

      They’re already in desperate straits. If we slam the door the CCP suddenly has a billion starving, unemployed, and really angry proles with whom to deal.

      The Administration estimates China’s “effective tariff on U.S. goods” to be 74%. Trump imposed a 34% “across the board” (blanket) “discounted” tariff on China. China is making noises like they’re going to respond with a 34% blanket tariff on U.S. goods. If they do, the Trump Administration will go to a 108% blanket on Chinese goods (74%+34%) and will continue to raise tariffs in response to China’s actions, until they break (which they will.)

      It is a high-stakes poker game, and Trump is much more experienced at “not blinking” than Xi, who should’ve learned his lesson over dessert, eight years ago…

      • Country’s that have very little trade with us will kneel everyone else will not play – if I were China I would stop all drug exports to the US. We are not what we use to be.

        • Our “brand name” drugs come from the U.S. and EU. For generics, we get roughly 80% of our antibiotics from China. We get less than 50% of other drugs from China (we get them from India, with a smattering from Germany, Canada, Australia, and a couple others.) This is changing rapidly, with India getting a greater share, and the pharmcos bringing a bunch of stuff back to the States.

          Remember, one of Trump’s dictates was that pharmaceuticals in the U.S. could not cost more for Americans than the lowest price available on the international market? This lasted until Mr. Biden had been in office for nearly four hours, before being rescinded. [In case you don’t remember], Trump made insulin $35, Biden lifted the price restriction, then ~3 years later, re-imposed it and claimed it as his own.

          We allow shit-drugs, made with questionable production and highly-questionable water & content, into our country. Why? Because it keeps the boardroom bennies and bonuses in place. I’m not a fan of the FDA because they’ve become a bloated, overbearing, overregulating bureaucracy, but some of the work they are supposed to do is essential to our health. None of this essential work gets done in China…

        • You are such a pragmartic party-pooper, proposing prosperity and perpetuity through competence; and in government no less.
          Ray, how could you?

        • “You are such a pragmartic party-pooper, proposing prosperity and perpetuity through competence; and in government no less.
          Ray, how could you?”

          Honestly? I expect Bobby Kennedy to do his job, do it well, and not go nutso with gusto when he carves out the bad blubber, bloat, and bullshit…

      • I’m thinking the billionaire temper tantrums are slowing down a bit, as the neo robber barons start to see the handwriting.
        For some reason, every time I hear a billionaire giving public witness that tariff’s will kill us all, I become a little more inclined to think the tariff’s may work. Likewise, when I hear of multiple billionaires’ foreign sponsor slapping a retaliatory tariff on us, I think, good riddance to them all.
        We should back the tariff down to 5% for reciprocal trading partners. Vietnam appears to be ready to make a deal. Trump should take that more seriously. If you can cut a mutually beneficial deal with the worst of enemies, then there is hope.

  7. re: “This Perfect Day”, 1970
    feat: Levin (‘lightning, flame’)

    Folks,
    One begins to wonder if H.P. Lovecraft qualifies among the most dangerous American authors of the 20th century. Had he steered a different course, perhaps Stephen King would channel Jane Austen while accompanied by Black Sabbath chanting silly love songs.

      • re: “Ben-Hur”, Gen. Wallace, 1880

        George,
        It’s a beautiful day, indeed. Can someone please check the toteboard? Last Friday superpac Maga Inc. apparently held a dinner at a West Palm Beach venue known as Mar-a-Lago. Guest speaker President President Donald Trump is understood to have flown in specially for the occasion perhaps coinciding with a Saudi-backed LIV golf tournament. Were dinner tickets at $1 million each gobbled up? Did any in attendance order Leg of Lamb with Rosemary au Jus? A tart signature dessert piece of Aunt Sally’s key lime pie would surely be a crowning glory to such a fine dining experience.

        Regrettably ZsaZsa is not available for introduction of an after dinner aperitif poolside at Mar-a-Lago. However Martina gives credible voice-over in lieu while introducing a 1930 Duesenberg automobile formerly owned by a grandson of the “Ben-Hur” (‘son to be free’) author. Her guest’s entreaty of “go bills, go” will be music to the ears of debtors everywhere at the following Youtube link:
        https://youtu.be/Eh8Tdn2L7SU

      • re: Washington grill sizzles
        feat: Rep. Bacon

        Folks,
        Brooklyn headquartered, Orthodox Jewish media outlet “Yasheva” devoted a minute plus segment recording PM Bibi being driven into Washington. I lost exact count, but there must have been 20+ vehicles in his motorcade. It’s a far cry from the recent single suv exit made by President Zelensky from the White House.

        Speaking of Ukraine, Telegram channel “Wartime Media” posted images of US Rep. Bacon meeting Ukrainian legislators posed adjacent to a defaced Ukrainian flag. My first thought was image tampering. However, lo and behold, the same image is posted on Rep. Bacon’s “Instagram” account. Image translation indicates militarily speaking that the pictured Ukrainian flag bears an ‘F – bomb’. It seems something of an oxymoron for an “X” rated image to be seen on a “Meta” platform. Here is Rep. Bacon’s crispy “Instagram” link:

        https://www.instagram.com/repdonbacon/p/DIAGGTpTy55

        • re: Spirits of Oaxaca

          Folks,
          Days after the flag incident, Rep. Bacon has achieved further mention on “X”. According to “a staffer” the Representative had allegedly imbibed a quantity of mezcal and commenced a chant of “Glory to Ukraine!” I don’t know if consuming blue tequila instead could have yielded a different outcome. Here is a link from “X” concerning the allegation:

          https://x.com/joma_gc/status/1910403872884990179

  8. I was wondering why the markets were bouncing more than my first wife this morning, then I saw this on Hal Turner’s site:

    What just happened? At 10:10 AM ET, rumors emerged that the White House was considering a “90-day tariff pause.”

    At 10:15 AM ET, CNBC reported that Trump is considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for ALL countries except for China.

    By 10:18 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added over +$3 TRILLION in market cap from its low.

    At 10:25 AM ET, reports emerged that the White House was “unaware” of Trump considering a 90-day pause.

    At 10:26 AM ET, CNBC reports that the 90-day tariff pause headlines were incorrect.

    At 10:34 AM ET, the White House officially called the tariff pause headlines “fake news.”

    By 10:40 AM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 TRILLION of market cap from its high, 22 minutes prior.

    Never in history have we seen something like this.

    • CNBC also hosts Cramer.

      Lesson to be learned: Never listen to CNBC.

      As much as I dislike Mr. Bloomburglar, his finance channel is a lot more prescient and useful. Hell FOX is more useful, and I don’t like it, either…

      BTW, it was not the “crash of ’29” which caused the Great Depression. It was the actions of the Fed, post-crash, which caused it. Mr. Xi’s attention span lasted less than eight years. I wonder how long the collective attention span at the Federal Reserve lasts…?

  9. Broke Spring bee the on going buzzzz.

    A QUESTION for the entire community – https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

    Several community members were there for it all. Many did not survive, but, BUT We (USA) needed the MONEY,
    to Murder people.

    So the politicians? came up with a $ printing press? – any who, this was the precursor to ALL.

  10. It is quite possible that the federal reserve will cut interest rates and inject cash to bolster liquidity by the end of this week. Well ahead of their May7th meeting.
    – Watch the bond volume MOVE Index.

  11. George,

    A nonlinear low today but not a black Monday. The exhaustion selling will occur in 12 additional trading days after an interim bounce.

    • of course no cash Monday ….. all the Sunday night sky is falling talk, plenty of time to “fix” things …. plus the #1 reason why no Monday crash ……… NCAA Final Four game tonight !! …………. LOL … be safe all

  12. Gold tried to hang on this morning during all the false news turmoil – but it couldn’t do it. Now down over $57 bucks and below the magical $3,000 mark at $2,978

  13. Thanks for the plug.
    According to Groke, a 70 km asteroid hitting the far side of the moon at a 45-degree angle would cause orbital changes that would cause a 4% to 5% increase in global high tides. The impact debris would cook the Earth’s average temperature by 0-.5C for 5 years. There would also be a significant meteor shower, but exceed a 1 megaton blast.
    It wouldn’t be an extension event, it alone wouldn’t be good fodder for a apocalyptic Science Fiction novel.
    My recent usage of Groke as a research tool has resulted in either scrapping, or enhancing some of my wild a** ideas.
    Your dream, and the AI response, has added to my backlog of burning time, scratching my head, and contemplating my navel.

    • Shades of the thundarr the Barbarian ABC cartoon 1980 –

      [Opening title narration]
      Narrator: The year, 1994. From out of space, comes a runaway planet, hurtling between the Earth and the moon, unleashing cosmic destruction. Man’s civilization is cast in ruin. Two thousand years later, Earth is reborn. A strange new world rises from the old. A world of savagery, super-science, and sorcery. But one man bursts his bonds to fight for justice. With his companions, Ookla the Mok and Princess Ariel, he pits his strength, his courage, and his fabulous Sunsword, against the forces of evil. He is Thundarr, the Barbarian!

      Okay, a planet, not a moon, but the results are similar…..

  14. “They have been screwing us for decades now and not even paying for dinner. It was bound to happen sooner, or later.” Bond market trader’s remarks in regard to the Trump Tariffs on China and now the threat of 50% more.

    • US Bonds versus the EUR – nice pitched battle going on there..

      Whispers of DOGE finding 14/ FOURTEEN CPU’s that print TREASURY CHECKS without federal reserve bank accounting. Whispers of more CPU’s to be found soonly.

      FRN’s – rumored to be in the 100x to 1000x more un accounted Dollars.

      These CPU’s printing the checks were paying contractors, hush monies, for secrecy, influence, whole shebangabang of dirty tricks. *(very difficult 2 make it look like suicide),child/human trafficking, supplies breakaway nogoodniks,ect..

      PHYZ will becomes a big Issue, again.

  15. Nice sunny morning. Solar is filling the banks and making us all good again. Mooring field neighbor, a fun Tahiitian guy, is getting his lagoon cat ready to take some friends from the island where the world is always intruding out to ‘ show them the sailor life… go to the motu for the day and drink some beer.”
    A Monday just like a Sunday, or a Saturday.
    The dirt is the trap.
    Stiks

  17. Trump Tariffs and Stock Selling

    What if the real issue is putting on baby boomer retirements till post 2030 when they are dieing. Idea is simply 25% loss in NASDEQ is about a 5 years addition to get back to where they were now.

  18. George, FYI, the site icon(favicon) went missing or is not displaying on this site. I don’t know if that’s deliberate or not, so I’m just mentioning it. For some of us, with innumerable tabs open, it’s useful to find the site again without having to open yet another tab.

  19. the BROKEN lame/main stream news media is not putting attention to this, I wonder why,,, pedos protect pedos, I wonder if liddlez got caught up.
    ‘Florida Authorities Bust Massive Global Child Pornography Ring — Over 1M Videos Seized, Including Infants Sexually Assaulted’
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/florida-authorities-bust-massive-global-child-pornography-ring/

    last week there was a big tado in Europe about a bunch of baby fuckers having a light shined on them,, asked google and got old news,,, then I
    ask GROK,,,

    “The most recent significant pedophile roundup in Europe was announced by Europol on April 2, 2025. This operation targeted a massive international child exploitation network known as “Kidflix,” which was one of the largest pedophile platforms globally, boasting nearly 1.8 million users worldwide. The network, primarily based in Germany, operated on the darknet and facilitated the distribution of over 91,000 videos of child sexual abuse material, totaling approximately 6,288 hours of footage.
    In a coordinated effort involving authorities from 38 countries—including Germany, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States—police conducted raids across 31 countries in March 2025. The operation, described as Europol’s “largest ever” of its kind, resulted in the shutdown of the Kidflix platform, the seizure of its servers (containing over 72,000 videos), and the arrest of 79 suspects. Additionally, 39 children were safeguarded as a result of these efforts. German authorities, particularly from Bavaria, led the investigation, with notable actions including the arrest of a 36-year-old man in Chemnitz in January 2024, who had been linked to the network and had offered his young son for exploitation.
    The investigation identified around 1,400 suspects globally, with 103 targeted in Germany alone, where 96 locations were searched. Europol noted that the platform, established in 2021 by a cybercriminal profiting significantly from its operations, had become a go-to hub for pedophiles, with about 3.5 new videos uploaded hourly before its takedown. The operation remains ongoing, with efforts continuing to identify additional victims and perpetrators.”

    soon my CONgressmen,, you will be exposed,,, soon
    I wonder if liddle Kidz Adam schiff is sleeping well
    this is just the tip of the iceberg,,, have not heard much from Diddy the liddle kidz diddler,,, he was good friends with the Obummer

    but the stock market and the tariffs are being pushed for now, headlines hold the Plebeians attention

  20. On Monday, the Hang Seng’s 12.53% drop marked its steepest fall since the Great Financial Crisis, while the Hang Seng Tech Index cratered 16.29%

    As y’all know, the Dow dropped ~300.

    I said Trump would go to 108% — My bad, he only went to 84%.

    {In order of likelihood}
    China will cave, or
    China will die, or
    China will start a meaningless war (not with Taiwan.)

    The number of nations lined up at the trade negotiations table is now >70. West Texas LSC dipped under $60, which means every Middle East “oil nation” is suddenly, temporarily broke. Russia is hurt but not broke, but if this runs even one day, Putin is going to have to take an IOU from Xi for his oil and NG, unless the Chinese wish to furlough their navy, put all those coal plants online, and burn the American bituminous they’ve been hoarding.

    If I were Trump, I’d not lift a tariff until May first (except for Israel, Vietnam, and the 5-6 other nations who dropped their tariffs before Trump’s went into effect…)

  21. A half-kilometer asteroid hitting Earth would be a planet-killer for us — an ELE (extinction level event) for every animal and nearly every plant which lives above water (and most, below.)

    This asteroid is about 60 meters in size. Assuming it hit Earth, if it didn’t break up in the atmosphere it would create a crater perhaps a mile in diameter (probably less) but would likely create a damage ring several hundred miles in diameter (based on the Russian Tunguska event), and would drop Earth’s global temperature several degrees, for several years.

    Your novel could be based on the last-minute discovery that 2024 YR4 would miss the Moon, but strike Earth, and the ~10 hours of Terran drama between the time the astronomers discover it will miss the Moon, and the moment it impacts Earth.

    Now, get to work, and put me down for the first copy… ;-)

    • As I look out into my front yard, and that of my two neighbors (who share the top of this hill with me) and watch the ducks swim across the breakers lapping over what used to be my next-door neighbor’s front lawn, I find it hard to take Michael Snyder seriously. I have him linked (as I do Hal Turner and a bunch of other conspironuts) because they are all useful in some cases, and for specific types of information. Snyder has been trying to define himself as a “Bible” (or “Biblical”) prophet (I’m not sure which) for over 30 years. His record is above the noise WRT hose jobs by the U.S. Government, but pretty much worthless WRT everything else, because he equates everything to HIS interpretation of some Bible verse, or other. I’m one of those “purists” who believe “No Man may know…” applies to many things and I get pissy, FAST, when someone tries to tell me unequivocally that “God says…” or “the Bible says…” something or other, and leaves no room for debate or dissent, or anyone else’s interpretation.

      The winds and dust storms are normal, and cyclical. The “dust bowl” was caused by farmers in “the Plains States” plowing the hell out of the fertile, but thin topsoil between The Four Corners and the Black Hills (actually into Alberta, but we’re so special we sometimes forget to include Canada when it’s appropriate to do so) and east to the edge of the Mississippi River Valley. The cyclical winds came, and instead of just blowing bits of the Great American Desert into the county adjacent, it lifted and blew that topsoil, and being much lighter than sand, the topsoil traveled much farther — into Indiana, Ohio, and even southern Ontario. THAT was the “dust bowl” — a human farming error, exacerbated by the advent and widespread use of the farm tractor and its array of attachments.

      The Plains are dryer than they were last year (last year was uncharacteristically wet) but it takes several consecutive years of drought to create the conditions which led to the “dust bowl,” and those consecutive years need to also coincide with the winds, and human stupidity. I would assume the folks who farm Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, the Dakotas, etc., (the “wheat belt”) understand that when the dirt dries out and the winds come, it’s time to park the John Deere and have a hoedown, instead.

    • The Dire Rhea is next.

      There are people (like Elon Musk) who want a pet woolly mammoth.

      The mammoth will be easy, because we have several DNA strains from frozen critters, already.

      However, why anyone would want a hairy, 16,000 pound elephant with a bad attitude is beyond me.

  24. Oh my.. climate changes has always played a role in the fall of civilizations and economies..Seriously though.. its the business model of stuff big buck billies pockets and the divide between social classes Supply chain disruptions crop shortages. and all of the tension that brings chaos.
    in Adolph Hitler’s second book he points out this issue. to gain control and obedience of the mass of the population you need to get the population dependent on the leaders to survive while they give it to the top thirty percent.. “Zweites Buch,” was unpublished during his lifetime and is less known than “Mein Kampf.” It outlines his expansionist ideology and views on foreign policy. While it does discuss strategies for consolidating power, including economic control.Governments have historically used social programs to maintain control over populations by creating dependence. In some cases, authoritarian leaders have manipulated economic policies—such as excessive taxation or asset seizures—to weaken opposition groups and consolidate wealth within the state. Nazi Germany used various strategies to reshape the economy, including confiscation of property from targeted groups, heavy state control over industries, and propaganda to justify economic policies.Considering the economic concerns and our sending jobs outside the usa now tactics climate war etc. we are the new fall of a civilization..Comparing this to the fall of the Egyptian and Roman empires reveals some striking parallels:

    Egyptian Empire
    Environmental Stress: Ancient Egypt suffered from prolonged droughts, which weakened agriculture and led to economic crises.

    Resource Struggles: The lack of essential resources, including metals for weapons, made Egypt vulnerable to invasions.

    Political Instability: Internal conflicts and power struggles further weakened the empire, making it easier for foreign forces to take control.

    Roman Empire
    Climate Change & Migration: The Roman Empire faced climatic shifts that contributed to food shortages and mass migrations, leading to instability.

    Economic Decline: Overreliance on slave labor, inflation, and trade disruptions weakened Rome’s economy.

    Military Struggles: Rome’s inability to repel invading forces, including the Goths and Vandals, led to its eventual collapse.

    Modern Climate Wars
    Resource Conflicts: Water shortages, food insecurity, and energy crises are fueling tensions between nations.

    Mass Migrations: Climate refugees are increasing as regions become uninhabitable, leading to geopolitical instability.

    Economic Disruptions: Extreme weather events are damaging infrastructure and disrupting global supply chains.

    While ancient civilizations fell due to environmental and political factors, today’s climate challenges are global, affecting multiple nations simultaneously.

    The Western Roman Empire (476 CE)
    Internal corruption, economic instability, and invasions by Germanic tribes led to its fall.

    Overexpansion made governance difficult, and reliance on mercenary armies weakened its military strength.

    2. The Maya Civilization (c. 800-900 CE)
    Prolonged droughts and deforestation led to food shortages.

    Political fragmentation and warfare further destabilized society.

    3. The Inca Empire (1533 CE)
    Spanish conquistadors, led by Francisco Pizarro, exploited internal divisions and diseases like smallpox weakened the population.

    The empire’s centralized structure made it vulnerable to rapid collapse.

    4. The Easter Island Civilization (c. 1600 CE)
    Overuse of natural resources, particularly deforestation, led to ecological collapse.

    Social unrest and warfare followed as resources dwindled.

    5. The Indus Valley Civilization (c. 1900 BCE)
    Climate change and shifting monsoon patterns disrupted agriculture.

    Possible invasions and internal decline contributed to its disappearance.

    6. The Han Dynasty (220 CE)
    Political corruption and peasant uprisings weakened the empire.

    External invasions and economic struggles led to fragmentation.

    7. The Ottoman Empire (1922 CE)
    Military defeats, economic stagnation, and nationalist movements led to its dissolution.

    The empire struggled to modernize and compete with European powers.
    Historical Collapse of Civilizations
    Throughout history, drastic climatic shifts have contributed to the downfall of societies. For example:

    The Mayan Civilization: Prolonged droughts weakened agriculture, leading to food shortages, social unrest, and eventual collapse.

    The Roman Empire: Climate fluctuations, including cooling periods, disrupted food production and trade, exacerbating economic instability.

    The Akkadian Empire: A severe drought lasting decades led to mass migrations and the empire’s decline.

    Modern Economic Impacts
    Today, climate change affects economies in several ways:

    Infrastructure Damage: Rising sea levels and extreme weather events destroy cities, roads, and power grids, leading to massive financial losses.

    Agricultural Disruptions: Changing temperatures and unpredictable rainfall reduce crop yields, threatening food security and increasing prices.

    Health and Productivity Decline: Heatwaves and pollution-related illnesses reduce workforce efficiency, increasing healthcare costs.

    Supply Chain Disruptions: Natural disasters and shifting climate patterns disrupt global trade, affecting industries worldwide.

    Financial Instability: The cost of climate-related disasters is skyrocketing, with estimates suggesting losses in the hundreds of billions annually.

    The Future of Civilization
    If climate change continues unchecked, societies may face:

    Mass migrations due to uninhabitable regions.

    Resource conflicts over dwindling water and food supplies.

    Economic recessions as industries struggle to adapt.

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