AI Advice: on De-Leveration, Load-out the Hunker-Bunker

by

Markets are pricing another flush today.  So our morning interactions with collaborative A.I. are spot on.

Warning: This discussion is predicated on your having at least an awareness of the difference between a commoner’s point-of-view (POV) and advanced multi-domain thinking capabilities.  A “domain” (for this discussion) may be considered a “thought-center” which in turn because the central focus for a single point of view.  For additional insights, read the Intro papers from The Hidden Guild.

Ure: People are waking up to the incredible parallels between 1929 and the present decline. Especially with the riff on Smoot-Hawley tariffs going into the mix. Still, to keep people from buying into single-domain blindness, could you give us the multiple domains that contributed to 1929 so people will be able to spot “single-solution idiocy” which is sure to appear in narrative form in less explorational media?

ChatGPT said:
Absolutely — this is a critical insight. When people look at the 1929 crash or any major historical inflection point through a single-domain lens (like just blaming tariffs or just blaming the Fed), they miss the interlocking failures that made collapse inevitable. What follows is a multi-domain breakdown of the 1929 Great Depression trigger — with corresponding modern echoes. It’s meant to arm the discerning reader against oversimplified narratives and “just do this one thing” fixes.

1. Multi-Domain Roots of the 1929 Crash (and Echoes Today)
1. Financial Domain: Leverage, Margin, and Market Mania
1929: Speculation was rampant. Ordinary people were buying stocks on margin (sometimes 10% down). The rise of “investment trusts” (akin to today’s ETFs and CDOs) created opaque, overleveraged market products.

Modern Echo: Margin debt remains historically high. Meme stocks, crypto manias, and leveraged ETFs reflect speculative bubbles, amplified by algorithmic trading and financial engineering.

Lesson: Leverage magnifies not only gains but collapses. Market structure matters.

2. Monetary Policy Domain: Central Bank Missteps
1929: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 1928-29 to curb speculation—too late to prevent the bubble and too early for an economy slowing under the surface.

Modern Echo: 2021-22 saw massive QE followed by aggressive tightening. The whiplash echoes the Fed’s inability to read true economic conditions.

Lesson: Lagging or blunt monetary policy is gasoline for fire. Timing is everything.

3. Trade Domain: Tariffs and Protectionism
1929: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was introduced in 1929, signed into law in 1930. It hiked tariffs on over 20,000 goods. Trade partners retaliated.

Modern Echo: Supply chain nationalism, U.S.–China tensions, Brexit frictions, and post-COVID reshoring resemble a slow-motion decoupling.

Lesson: Economic nationalism often sounds good but reduces global efficiency and fuels retaliatory isolation.

4. Credit Domain: Banking and Shadow Systems
1929: Bank lending was reckless, and bank failures cascaded through the early 1930s. There was no FDIC, and depositor panic accelerated collapses.

Modern Echo: While banks are better regulated, shadow banking (hedge funds, private equity, fintech lenders) operates with minimal oversight. 2023’s bank failures (SVB, etc.) reveal lingering fragility.

Lesson: Credit systems need transparency and trust. Hidden risks always surface.

5. Psychological Domain: Mass Confidence Collapse
1929: Once the market cracked, confidence evaporated. People rushed to sell. The emotional contagion—fear—took over.

Modern Echo: Social media accelerates panic cycles. Narrative velocity (memes, tweets, FUD) is exponentially faster now.

Lesson: Emotion is a contagion. Confidence is the true currency in a speculative system.

6. Technological Domain: Misunderstood Disruptions
1920s: Radio, telephone, electricity, and cars were revolutionizing life. Investors piled into tech-related stocks with little understanding.

Modern Echo: AI, blockchain, space tech, and biogenomics are in similar positions. Many startups have valuations divorced from fundamentals.

Lesson: Tech booms often precede crashes. Novelty blinds risk perception.

7. Social Domain: Wealth Inequality and Class Fracture
1929: The Roaring Twenties created massive wealth concentration. Most people didn’t benefit from the gains and were left vulnerable.

Modern Echo: Wealth inequality has returned to Gilded Age levels. Top 1% owns more than 50% of financial assets.

Lesson: Unsustainable inequality breeds systemic brittleness.

8. Political Domain: Weak Governance and Entrenched Interests
1929: U.S. leadership failed to grasp the scope of the unraveling. Policy was reactive, and corporate lobbying blocked deeper reforms.

Modern Echo: Partisan gridlock, capture of regulatory agencies, and delayed response to structural crises (climate, housing, AI displacement) are signs of institutional sclerosis.

Lesson: Crisis mismanagement is usually political in origin.

9. Ecological Domain: Environmental Shocks and Ignored Warnings
1930s: The Dust Bowl was an environmental collapse triggered by poor farming practices and drought. It turned a financial crisis into a humanitarian one.

Modern Echo: Climate change, water scarcity, and food supply fragility are accelerating. Resource shocks may amplify economic declines. (We have a mega quake watch on, too…)

Lesson: Environment is not separate from economy—it’s the substrate.

10. Cultural Domain: Mythologies of Endless Growth
1929: The “New Era” myth preached perpetual prosperity. Business leaders promised “a chicken in every pot.” It masked deeper vulnerabilities.

Modern Echo: Modern capitalism still runs on the myth of infinite growth in a finite world. Consumerism and quarterly capitalism ignore system limits.

Lesson: Cultural delusions drive systemic blindness.

Final Warning: Beware the “Single Bullet Fix”
When narrative platforms (TV, podcasts, op-eds) offer one reason for collapse—or one savior fixes—they’re selling mythology, not analysis.

Smoot-Hawley may be trending again, but it’s just one domino. Crashes are hydra-headed. Only multi-domain thinkers see the real shape of collapse.

If you insist on the previous human pabulum (of singular solution lies and excessive simplifications) you are on the wrong planet.  On this one, multi-domain narrative control is firmly in place.  Governments and Globalists are fighting for dominance.  Stock market (and asset declines in general) may be conceptualized as “harvesting” of humans, so that the pricks who imagine themselves “the proper owners of capital” can re-assert dominance and control.

Next week’s Peoplenomics report deals with a lot more specific model outputs. But to give one public example, if your lifestyle doesn’t include working plans for at least a partial Internet shut-down (with resulting asset freezes/losses) then what we’ve been writing about for 25-years may never sink-in with sufficient rapidity to be useful.

Mark Your Calendar

In our work, next Monday-Tuesday is a possible Crash.  Margin calls coming. Calendar says the Crash Window is open until Aprtil 16.

Compared with 1929 *(Chart)

Does the word “fugly” mean something, now?  The faint yellow arrow shows a trendline where a bounce may occur.  But, we’re just sitting still, for now.

Jobs Data

We now look at Federal Jobs data and the rest of the train wreck in progress.  Not that these will matter much with tariff wars hotting up.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal
government employment declined.

Refreshingly, the CES Biorth-Death Model actually removed 33,000 jobs…and still not a bad report.

Here’s how the Database of Jobs reads. Employment (jobs) is up about 2-million compared with year ago levels! Hardly end of the world stuff…This is right out of Series Id: LNS12000000 Total Employed:

Might want to keep the data in mind – as a Benchmarking tool for your plans.

Trump is going into the weekend with a strong DOGE report likely coming – as he continues to grab the narrative spotlight which is one nexus of population control.

Behind it All: Tariff Disruption

Ure asked: “I have argued that the Trump Tariffs are an attack on Globalism whose power and influence has risen dramatically on profit playing the Purchasing Parity wage gaps in the world. But, a friend, noticing no sanctions on Israel, posited that Trump tariffs could also be viewed as payback against countries for supporting Palestinians. Which view is most probable?

AI Stack said: “Trump’s tariffs were primarily a strategic attack on globalism, aiming to end multinational profit games based on wage arbitrage (PPP gaps). They were designed to re-shore industry and counter China’s economic rise.

The theory that tariffs were punishment for pro-Palestinian support lacks strong evidence—tariff targets don’t align with major Palestinian allies. That view is speculative and likely not a driving factor.

Verdict: Economic restructuring, not geopolitical payback, was the main motive.

Still, a heads-up to expect attacks like this, especially in advance of the upcoming attack on Iran to preempt their development of usable nuclear weapons.

Speaking of which:  Is this whistling in the graveyard we’re hearing?  Iranian MP warns Trump is bluffing with threats against Tehran.  Maybe…but Israel sure as hell isn’t.

Rollers and Scrollers

(Which is only slightly better than “Teeming with Streaming…”)

Ah!  Chippie Friday, is it?  Lutnick: US Needs to Take Chip Production From Taiwan.  From the Hell no, don’t go folks: China Holds Major Naval Exercise With a Carrier Near Taiwan. While the Peanut Gallery wonders whether China Imposes a 34% Tariff on Imports of all U.S. Products | TIME is related.  Yes, of course. Impounding strategic minerals, too.  It’s getting “hard” out there.

If you can’t trust the NSA, who can you trust? Trump fires National Security Agency director, reassigns civilian deputy director.

We’ve concluded that Denmark doesn’t teach American history:  ‘You cannot annex another country’: Denmark PM to US on Greenland.  Um…I’ve got First People friends who’d beg to differ—whole continents say otherwise. Should we go ahead and send Denmark some ‘historic blankets’ to complete the lesson?

Around the Ranch: Tuning the “Hunker Bunker”

Betting on the Future is a difficult thing.  We knew, when we rolled out of Big City digs in 2003 that the world was coming quickly to a potential “Blow Up” moment.  We were right, of course.  But that was later proven to be only a near-death experience – with the Housing Bubble collapse of 2008 which fell to the market lows of 2009.

In my practice of Long Wave Economics at the time, I was very mindful that two things could occur. First, America would rise again – and with it, new technologies which could extend the traditional 12-13 year (Clement Juglar) cycle.  Advances in financial engineering, non-stop development of new tech – all played a role.  Now, however, the Bonfire of the Equities is showing signs of reflaming.

See, after the 2009 low, unprecedented central bank interventions—led by the Federal Reserve’s QE programs—ignited a prolonged and artificially extended rebound. Asset inflation replaced wage growth, and a boom emerged in equities, crypto, and speculative tech ventures, peaking in phases between 2021 and 2022. Globally, housing markets re-inflated, sovereign debt ballooned, and consumer confidence soared, following the typical upswing arc expected in the mid-to-late stages of the cycle.

I know people who “got by pretty well” during the real estate reflation by simply playing the “rolling HELOC and ReFi game” well.

Unlike prior cycles,post-2009 has dragged on—delaying the re-peak and looming correction set to resume at the open today.

The delay stems from coordinated monetary suppression, endless liquidity injections, and the rise of tech monopolies that absorbed risk and masked broader economic decay. COVID-19 acted as a temporal disruptor: instead of triggering collapse, it ushered in a final parabolic push via stimulus checks, emergency lending, and low-rate addiction. But this bought time at a cost—eroding currency value, widening inequality, and setting the stage for systemic stress. Now, with global debt at unsustainable highs, inflation re-anchored, and geopolitical fragmentation rising, the next collapse phase is overdue—not because the cycle failed, but because its energy was misallocated. What should have been a reset in 2022–2023 was deferred by political will and central bank overreach, only deepening the eventual reckoning.

In background we enumerate other macro-drivers, such as the appearance and surge of Global Oligarchs (Soros et al) who have begun to vie with governments globally for steering control of the Future.

Our strategy remains the same as it was in 2003 when we made the decision to invest in “Happily ever-aftering.”  Live rural. Live Downsized. Live minimally.

Depending on what happens at the long-term trend line of support (chart with the faint yellow arrow above) we will either return to rolling- over our own version of the Seed Vault, or return to viable future.

Two Key Purchases are on the table.

If the decline continues, we get a 50 percent decline, but then a major turn higher becomes expected, then a new car – something like a US Built equivalent of a Camry LE – more than 50 MPG.  More importantly, low profile and it should be somewhat maintenance free in what could be difficult times. Predictably on the back-end of major recessions, discounts and zero interest on anything that will create demand (and jobs) can be expected.

The other is a .50 caliber “reach out and touch” device.  Because in certain of our future models – and we put numbers to it in next week’s Peoplenomics report – living happily ever-after could become a somewhat dirtier job. We shall see. Much will depend on whether the rational powers in government (which seem in short supply) can persist, or whether the corporate power grasp – that began with jobjacking and offshoring – is consummated by Globalist stooges.

In any case? Low profile, is the “way to go” right now. Extraction and ex-fil. Profile management. We’re telling you it’s coming. And we are prepared to deal with uninvited arrivals.

The Cuban folk saying “Don’t count your money in front of the poor” applies here and we’d remind you of this if you haven’t been hurt by the declines so far. Or the greater ones likely ahead.

Seeds and prayer beads, anyone?

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

62 thoughts on “AI Advice: on De-Leveration, Load-out the Hunker-Bunker”

  1. With AI telling you:

    “Absolutely — this is a critical insight.”

    You won’t need us anymore!

    I’m just teasing, it’s a lot of fun. But imagine what AI ‘they’ have and what questions and answers are happening ‘there.’

  2. Thanks, George.

    Airplane (1980)

    “Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking.”
    “Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking.”
    “Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.”
    “Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.”

    • Phew… thank god you didn’t post..

      “Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit Having Sex”

      or are you married and have been married for over a year lol lol lol..

  3. George,

    The US and world are concluding a 32 of 33 year self-organizing 2nd fractal starting in 1994 and part of a 1982 13/32 of 33 year X/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series. The 1982 series is an interpolated fractal series of a larger US 1807 36/90/90/54 to 57 year ::x /2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal series ending in 2074 to 2077. The 1982 13/33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series is directly proportionally and fractally analogous to the 1807 36/90 year ::x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series peaking 3 Sept 1929 with a nadir on 8 July 1932. The 2025 SPX peak was on 19 July 2025. The expected low is in May 2026.

    The gapped lower low nonlinearity characterizing the terminal portion of 2nd fractals (32 of 33 years) can currently be observed in the daily charts of the French CAC (Fr:Px1). Because of stock holiday differences vice the SPX, the CAC is following a 3 Feb 2025 8/20/19 of 20/12-13 day ::x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x crash decay fractal.

      • Thanks George,
        I definitely did.

        19 Feb 2025 (which has happened) was the SPX’s final peak valuation vice 19 July 2025 (which won’t happen.) The CAC intraday peak valuation was on 3 March 2025 as European investment left the US markets and rotated for a final surge into the European equity markets, day 14 of the CAC’s 20-day 2nd fractal.

        Likely a black monday coming … day 20 of 20 of the SPX, CAC, and STOXX 3rd fractals. Circuit breakers? Time will tell.

  4. “Hunker in the bunker” is what intelligent People should be doing when fecal matter is airborne. It bee airborne NOW, no?

    Lets play a game homegamerz, its called “Name That President”

    Clue #1 – first initials are GeHH
    Clue#2 – currently Listless in ME theatre
    Clue#3 – from the Show Me state
    Clue#4 founded cia
    Seems our haze gray and underway folks in the Med/RedSea, are having trouble with tracking ultra low flying shahel drones, and that homegamerz is a PROBLEM, a big 5000 Men&Women on-board problem.

    Too bad that – not my preferred timeline so I wont be putting any NRG into any thoughts relating to war..
    Fuck em ALL! warpigs that is..https://youtu.be/rwH5ACiN6fY

  5. Well said Mr Ure . I leave you all with the potty mouthed wisdom of British HODL whose 3 rules of Bitcoin certainly seem prescient from over a year ago.

    Most single digit millionaire net worth individuals are now priced out of being a whole coiner.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BJxqp5lmHUc

    Again, unless you all are anticipating the Thunder Dome, I suscribe to the theory that technological disruption of the 4th turning has created massive opportunities…. That is If your mind remains above the distractions and Zeitgeist

    Got blockchain.

    • Gold will crash next week because the sale (discount on labor) ends today.
      :(

      • The inverse of “crashing” gold is the implication of a strengthening dollar. Pretty sure the large scale gold producers: 1) hedge forward, thus implying little to no impact to their long term production costs, and 2) have fairly stable, skilled work forces, with a high percentage of heavy machinery operators. Such labor costs are rather stable, and wouldn’t seem to be heavily impacted by tariffs. So, don’t quite understand why you believe labor costs will be rising enough to crash gold. No direct “if A, then B” relationship between existing gold already in the markets globally and labor costs would seem to exist; such a relationship would arguably only apply to gold being mined currently or in the future. Tariffs will almost certainly affect the price of mining machinery, repair parts, and possibly refined petroleum products required to operate the machinery, far more than the associated labor required to run those machines.

        During the 1930s Depression, with it’s own tariff issues, while the stock market certainly tanked, miners, especially gold miners, did just fine.

      • You may have a higher resolution chart.

        Back there in 2018 when Trump did the first tariffs gold crashed about 10% from March 1, 2018 to August 17th, 2018.

        From August 17th, 2018 gold went up, up and away until August 7, 2020 increasing 57.x% from the March 1, 2018 close.

        This week’s high was $3,225.99 so it’s possible gold will go down to $2,900 +/- before more expansion of the money supply using credit makes it lift off.

  6. I still think the 1929 event was a way to muscle the private AU/AG chips from the serfs. Extend credit beyond the value of the system’s chips. Once the private chips were taken the peoples were locked into and at the mercy of the new credit system. Today we all need the banking system and there’s no way around it – 100 years ago this wasn’t true.

    We can cite the Unabomber, the Browns and others.

    ” something like a US Built equivalent of a Camry LE”

    My 2012 Camry just rolled 290,000 miles. I’m trying to get to 300,000 before trading. The only non-maintenance items I’ve replaced was the alternator and thermostat – but perhaps these are maintenance with the high mileage. This car is a hoopty now but runs fine on the expressway.

    I was @ the TM dealer a few days ago. The sales rep indicated cars are flying off of the lot because people were anticipating tariffs. I asked how tariffs would impact TM because TM has U.S. manufacturing. The rep indicated TM U.S. manufacturing is final assembly. Parts are imported from Japan and elsewhere. So tariffs will impact TM.

    Artificial demand creating credit expansion anticipating tariffs… Interest rates on new TM vehicles is 5.xx%.

    More credit expansion fixing the tariffs.

    “the back-end of major recessions, discounts and zero interest on anything that will create demand (and jobs) can be expected.”

  7. Before you go down the 50 cal road check this out, I would suggest this the only issue might be the less available ammo.
    Yes i have used both. all depends on what your doing, LOL

    https://cheytac.com/

    • Three years ago I was at the local rifle range.., I was just setting-up when a guy showed-up with all the latest gear and toys.., and whipped out a Cheytac., out of a hardcase that looked like bank vault. That thing was huge., and weighed closed to fat lady sitting at a MacDonalds counter.
      I smiled and handed it back to him. Way too much.., and the ammo is very proprietary.
      He asked what I was shooting – and I removed my rifle from a tac-bag. A bull barrel Remington 700 Police. [ 7.62 ] I had heavily modified her., though you would be hard pressed to see anything. It weighed a third of the Cheytac and cost a tenth.
      He nearly laughed and instantly challenged me to competition. He was an over blown ass that believed expensive toys and lots of tattoos will win the day. I accepted and offered a thousand dollars. He visibly winched – but agreed.
      At that time the range only went to 500 yards [ now a thousand ]
      To cut to the chase – by the time we worked our way out to the 500 marker he was in a near panic. At the five hundred he never even hit within the rings – I placed my three shots right on the nose of the silhouette – inside half an inch.
      He did not want to pay up – but his three buddies that were with him made him. He had to borrow from them to make the bet.
      My point to all of this? Skip the $12,000 rifle with extremely limited proprietary ammo.., and spend more time learning how to shoot ! My Remington can out-shoot me.., I have to step-up., not the rifle.
      P.S. I still have my Remington. Great little rifle. Man, or beast – it will get the job done. Also – did you know that the average police sniper shot is under a hundred yards ? And over 90 percent are under two hundred. You can not see a human figure at a thousand yards un-aided. In the woods, or jungle ??? For-get-about-it !
      .

        • Happy Friday to all you homegamers in a synthetic cash position with (select) blockchain.

          https://youtu.be/56zVhJcWyCs

          The markets were drained by over $2.5T this week . That money won’t find its way back into stonks. Expect to see more money parking in Bitcoin as the weather gets even Fowler from here.

        • G2 is correct.
          .223 fine for human and critters to 500yd.
          .308 wpill get anything needing getting at 1000.
          .50 is good if you need an engine block on s Stryker, it overdone fore most stuff.
          I guess I’m a old mossack. My urban assault rifle is a Win M94 with a scout rail and a red dot. Deer at 250 fall down so humans probably will too.
          All the 1st people and Buffalo would tell you that’s what an assault rifle looks like.

      • “You can not see a human figure at a thousand yards un-aided.”

        I had no trouble seeing (and hitting) the Whittington Center white buffalo silhouette at 1,123 yards with iron sights on my M-1 Garand, but a human would have been very difficult to see and/or hit under those conditions. And shot placement was “on the buffalo” rather than a specific part of the buffalo. I had friends using 6.5mm high dollar guns and scopes, and they were trying to hit the gong in the middle of the buffalo. Needless to say, I never saw the gong.

      • foot pounds are pretty different for the 7.62 and the 50 at all ranges. at 500 the 7.62 still has some wallop but it drops pretty quickly thereafter. at 1000 the 7.62 may not even break leather. the .50 is good out to…

        but if you can’t hit the target it doesn’t matter what you use.

      • The other day there was a gas station shooting. The clerk and a customer opened fire against each other. No injuries/both arrested. I never understand why people in a shootout never take the 1/2 – 1 second to aim. When our number is up, it’s up, spend the last 1 second aiming.

        Clerk, customer argument escalates into shooting at Southfield gas station

        No injuries were reported

        https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2025/04/02/clerk-customer-argument-escalates-into-shooting-at-southfield-gas-station/

    • A tool should have a practical use.. that is like owning a rolls Royce, Bently, or Mercedes etc. its pretty but a total waste of money..
      every tool I had was acquired to do a job. if the cost of the tool the materials and my time used etc. didn’t add up to less than the lowest bid.. I wouldn’t get it.. the cost of this and supplies isn’t something that a regular wage earner would get or be able to afford. I don’t think it would make a good hunting gun (NUG) so its just not practical .. maybe something to hang on the wall to display..
      now here is a pretty nice duck hunter.. its only a two shot but heck if hunting for geese or ducks and you miss the first time..it deserves to move on for another day.. I don’t hunt though I know where my food comes from I just am not that guy..
      https://www.pyramydair.com/product/seneca-double-shot-50-cal-double-barrel-shotgun?m=4572

    • Then there’s the question of..ammunition… now I can make black powder or smokeless flash powder .. cast the bullets etc. A lesson from the Lewis and Clark expedition should give a person a little reflection on purpose.. thinking about their time traveling around..how would they carry enough supplies..
      this gun was once owned by my family relative..

      https://youtu.be/-pqFyKh-rUI?si=M7o48Ye-_goW4XLo

      before I knew it was in the museum in st.louis..I had called some cousins and asked if anyone had it in a closet somewhere.. they said nope the NRA had it.. Now I do know where my food comes from but I am not going to be the one to do it.. I would easily become a vegan..
      I do have a fifty caliber pepperball gun..it won’t kill anything but would give us enough time to get to safety..I have a teaser projectile gun like the police use to.. I put it up so the kids won’t have any access to it..the same way with my grandpas Masonic order of the templar knight sword.
      there’s whole groups that do big game hunting..

  8. alexander arms make a reasonable priced .50 problem is ammo. I have their .17HMR but I use .20/.17 hmr ammo to make sure I recycle effectively since it’s rim fired ammo

  9. the stock market rocket ship UP began Oct 2022 … when we get back down to those levels … then wake me. Its amazing to me the easy money UP the last 3 years have been …. now we get a bit of DOWN, and the sky is falling, how the ponzi game works …. good luck all

  10. Cinderella Man (2005)

    Yeah, I used to be a broker.

    Still lost it all in ‘ .

    Yeah, me, too.

    I had just about everything I ever earned in stocks.

    Even had a little taxi company.

    I mean, who loses their dough on cabs in New York City, right?

    Well, I thought that one was gold for the grandkiddies.

    You know, there’s people living in shacks in Central Park.

    Call it The Hooverville.

    This governmen?s dropped us flat.

    We need to organize, you know?

    Unionize. Fight back.

    Fight? Fight what?

    Bad luck? Greed? Drought?

    No point punching things you can’t see.

  11. The icing on the this wonderful week would be JPow coming out this morning and instituting a .5% raise in the rate!

  12. What if?
    1) Saudi’s out of oil and Russia oil production facilities breaking w/o parts so lower production…. took awhile with Biden…
    2) manufacturing takes oil… raise prices supply and demand… less consumed.
    3) Tariffs…some tax income… offsets deficiets..large… idea BRICs not competitive.
    4) USA funds.. gone for overseas charity. China wants influence… stocks down, banks down, Japan broke… China inflates…for all and BRICS.. local inflation rats 20% riots. BRICs gone.
    5) Europe 1T Euro inflation Germany… recession. tariffs… no invasion Ukraine…Russia safe
    6) If above backfires… Russia EMP nuc over USA if all countries mad and invade Russia for minerals.
    7) Tariffs not much… USA schinn bicycle 2000.00… China Walmart import 150.00. 30% neither here or there…
    8) TEch wreck? no chips… Japan broke, no chips.. No chips no crypto no way recover oil shale by subsidy and writeoffs.
    9) Trump sell overseas.. I made money… so copied.

    • You know …this question came up.. Volkswagen and Toyota soon musk etc. is coming out with the water car… people laugh and say its not possible but hey old Adolph did it.. the only reason these are not in production is the business model..
      the technology is simple..Musks motor is designed exactly like the one the Luftwaffe used.. the issue was always cooling the gas down..it burns at what five of six thousand degrees and would burn out and destroy the cylinders … what they used was water alcohol injection and turbocharger..
      why not make a ….wait for it….. (FART MOBILE) … and run it off of cabbage you get three things gas .. sourkraut… and gas again lol lol lol …lol lol..

    • Yup old Joe maybe changed the business model.. blowing up the gas pipeline put Europe in a fragile position…

  13. Yes., “the Gambler” still “in”.., I did figure there would be a follow-thru to the downside., no bounce yet., but I did not anticipate this ‘big’ of a downslide.
    Gotta love it when the money-boys panic., and your on the right side of the trade.
    The S&P is down 4.74% / the NASDAQ is down over 5%
    Turning out to be one of my best trades [ bets ] in a couple of years. Cha-Ching !!
    Gold is getting slapped even harder then yesterday. down $72.80
    Bitcoin is up though – over $1,100
    Small Caps., are really getting hurt.

    “Carnac the Magnificent” is down another 5% – starting to look rather fugly.

    Egor – “The Mrs” wants me to look into the Catfisher 32., sailboat. One is sitting on the hard in the Seattle area. There were only 17 of them made. They aren’t very pretty., but they are comfortable ‘live-aboards’. It would be the biggest sailboat on this 54 mile lake. We’ll see..,

    • Steady as she goes there JC, and mind the Flows.

      Not nearly enough blood in the street, yet..

      a couple drops blood, to indicate a puncture wound.

      Bot SPY 470 puts (exp4/25) at $.55 earlier in the week – am holding over weekend. They closed on a $7.30 Bid and I am know a lil concerned Uncle Scam will be coming after those capital Capital Gains…evil bastards. Gonna be cogitating on Tax dodges for 2025.

      Dont need to or want to pick Tops or Bottoms, just going with the momo presently. Experience tells me this aint over, by a long shot.

      So powder is DRY, target acquisition is being acquired, patience..as I wait for my prey to come into my field of view.

      In meantime, I hope all youse all are starting to nibble on “da Cheese”, and no you do not have to go to the cheesy side of town to you some BTC – And dont forget the fatman in the bathtub with blues..

      -https://youtu.be/uRhMgIztVpc?si=SlGOxe65QXadUwrf

  15. Ummm… there was more to the 1929 – 1933 sequence than just the stock market tanking a bit one year.
    Personal debt was out of control in 1929; possibly worse than now. Margin equity buying was completely unregulated. Personal loans for mortgages and the like were largely unregulated, with zero protections from lenders calling in loans. Bond markets were wild west sorts.
    Margin calls from the ’29 stock crash caused large numbers to sell anything they could to make margin calls and raid personal bank accounts. The bond markets were destabilized and credit became extremely tight, which was accelerated by tariffs and financial policy. Lenders called in loans on the flimsiest of excuses. There was no one willing to make bridge loans. Banks failed with no deposit insurance. Companies could not get credit to operate and could not meet payroll. These processes are sometimes referred to as credit deflation, not to be confused with consumer deflation. If credit deflation proceeds to it’s inevitable end, virtually all debt is forcibly liquidated, and consumer deflation can occur; however, supply and demand dictates consumer prices, so some sectors can have hyperinflation as credit deflation gathers momentum.
    We are having a rousing equity correction. The commodity price decreases are a bit suspicious. Consumer interest rates are trending down, which indicates the bond markets are not blowing up. Apparently margin calls are being met. A larger panic spreading to other financial segments has not happened yet.
    Unless you are just making bad investments, and have a loan shark on your trail, there does not appear to be any reason to go to ground this morning. But there is always the afternoon.

  17. Its the Bankers, always the Bankers. Specifically the City of London flavor. Putin should send them a large deposit via airmail, the hypersonic type.

    If you find yourself in need of a 50 cal for your survival and anything less just won’t do, well you are in deeper shit than any one man can fix. Shame on all of us for letting things get that far. FUBAR.

    Little salty today, best I stay off the interweb at least until next Wednesday.

  18. “If you can’t trust the NSA, who can you trust? Trump fires National Security Agency director, reassigns civilian deputy director.”

    Translation: Trump finally screened “Enemy of the State…”

  19. re: “National Velvet”, 1944
    re: “The Pie” vs. “I Am Maximus”

    Folks,
    Today is Ladies Day at Aintree on the outskirts of Liverpool leading up to Saturday’s running of the Grand National. Barbie’s pink fuschia fashions are in a showdown with rising pastels of butter yellow. Fascinators reign supreme upon all heads while hijabs appear to have fled the field. The Princess Royal is scheduled for an onsite luncheon. The venue’s Red Rum Garden surrounding the gala festivities should not be mistaken as a homage to Director Kubrick’s “The Shining”. Rather, Red Rum was a three-time winner of the storied Grand National some 50 years ago.

    This year a betting favorite I Am Maximus is seeking a second victory at the event. The defender’s owner is an Irish multi-billionaire. His entrant takes its name from the original owner’s wife, Maxine (Greatest). Public records indicate that Maxine fell from her zenith of baby names in 1930.

    As an aside, “Sporting Life” advises that the primary sponsor of the Grand National has today renewed its affiliation until 2029. “Wikipedia” notes that the company famously supplied about £770 million of covid-19 kits during the pandemic to the UK government without tender.

    Punters, these are interesting times.

  20. “We’ve concluded that Denmark doesn’t teach American history: ‘You cannot annex another country’: Denmark PM to US on Greenland.”

    Really?

    My ancestry is Norse and Swedish – not Danish. 35 generations ago, ancestors of mine had farms in Greenland. When the mini ice age we’re in now, rolled in, they beat it back to Ureup. After they left, the Danes came in and annexed Greenland, along with its permanent native residents.

    • So sweet – you’re learning fast to disguise your true purpose – a paid for chatbot set loose on internet forums to meld with the tribe and appear human. So much life experience from storm chasing to gun slinger, well versed in all mundane human problems from electrical appliances, plumbing to the universe of all things. The Scandinavian ancestry is a nice touch. So ask yourself – when did “Ray” suddenly appear? And what was happening around that time?

  21. “Carnac the Magnificent” just broke support and is now down just over 17% from it’s February high.
    S&P500 is down 17% from Feb highs
    NASDAQ is down 20% from Feb highs
    The small cap Russell 2000 is down 22.24% [ really getting hammered.]
    Gold is down 3.24%
    Oil has dropped from $77.50 a barrell to $61.95 [ ouch ! ]
    .., and the bonds – just flat fugly. The only one that seems to be trying to hold it’s own is the 13 Week Bond. Now worth more than the Five Year and Ten Year bonds. [ 13Week 4.16% / 5 Year 3.68% / 10Year 3.972% ]
    All of Europe is down across the board. Including all of Asia [ though not quite as bad.]

    Triple ‘T’ – “The Trump Tariffs” has taken trillions of dollars out of the markets.

    One small glitch right about here and this correction could become a raging disaster.

  22. Well…, Warren Buffett no longer has to defend his massive $330 billion cash pile. He was right., once again. The question never was why? The question, as far as I am concerned is – what is he going to buy?!”
    .., and he has denounced all the statements that have been made in his name – on Tik Tok, Facebook., etc. He has not commented on the markets., nor the tariffs.., and won’t address them until his corporate shareholders meeting in May. “All these comments attributed me., are blatantly false.”
    Buffet turned 90 – and he still has a bottle of Coke every day.

    • I’m from Omaha and covered Berkshire Hathaway for Muni’s before the moved to PFD’s he’d stab you in the chest for a nickel. He will buy more of that which is out of favor – oil stocks

  23. re: Renault (tr.: ‘counsel, advice’)
    feat: fire sale near Kyiv

    Folks,
    Ukrainian msm has noted last night’s Russian missile strike on a car dealership in a suburb of Kyiv. The reports offered a positive take that an “administration building” had been saved by firefighters. Images depicted a parking lot and demolished showroom littered with burned-out new vehicles and trucks.

    As chance would have it, an area dealership of a French motor vehicle company has a website promotion valid until tomorrow. Test drives, prizes and special incentive pricing are allegedly available. Alleged purchase bonuses of approximately us$1450 may be paired with special 60 month financing with only 30 to 50% down payment subject to residency requirements (ie: not in a region of active fighting).

  24. Trump just said bye to his voter base.

    Arguments below:

    Option 1: Conservative

    400K

    50% bonds
    30% DOW
    20% NASDEC

    Bonds… 5%
    Dow: 15% losses
    NASDEC: 20% losses

    Now

    200K bonds + 18K losses DOW + 16K NASDEC… total losses 34K

    Option 2: Liberal

    400K

    No bonds…dummy’s
    DOW: 30%
    NASDEC: 70%

    Now 18K losses Dow + 56K NASDEC …total losses 74K

    Boss here did liberal…Trump makes money

  25. ai seems a godsend for those getting paid by the word for writing prose.
    Not so much for me forced into a hardware upgrade(not for just ai). Learned the hard way, I won’t update an OS until it’s been out for at least 2 weeks. In the 3 weeks since I bought my supposedly screaming fast computer there has been: 1;an update, 2;a two week later oopsie fix, 3;new release moving from beta to full release and 4;beta release of the next OS. My legacy system is also messing up, so I’m pretending to know unix to sledge hammer it into usefulness(you know mac is unix behind the gui, right?). apple won’t stop messing with their machines after the sale so they are now the leading paperweight maker. OK, on to google…nope,quit years ago.
    To quote myself, ‘it’s easier to guess when the market manipulation is over than to guess how far it will go,’ yes I said that to myself. Can’t believe you hotdogs jumping into this fray. kudos and spankings at the selfserve bar.
    In the meantime I’ll don my apple vr headset and scoot around in my apple car.

  26. “Two Key Purchases are on the table.”

    1. There is no 100 Year Toaster in the automobile industry. Every single year you go, past 1966, you add a layer of complexity to a motor vehicle.

    2. Unless you have a concrete block wall to shoot through, there’s nothing you can shoot with a .50 BMG that you can’t also shoot with a .308 or 30-06, for a lot less money.

    If’fn you want to buy a new car or a BMG just go for it. The Camry Hybrid is a genuinely nice ride and the Barrett 82 is a damnfine Rifle…

  27. There’s my third one – Papua New Guinea / 7.2-magnitude earthquake – tsunami warning has been issued., but none has formed.

  28. “7. Social Domain: Wealth Inequality and Class Fracture
    1929: The Roaring Twenties created massive wealth concentration. Most people didn’t benefit from the gains and were left vulnerable.

    Modern Echo: Wealth inequality has returned to Gilded Age levels. Top 1% owns more than 50% of financial assets.”

    Which makes the USA the best place on the planet for the proles to be. In places like France and Germany, the top 1% owns (94% and 97% respectively) of assets and private property.

    • Yes. The billionaires who have gotten sloppy rich shipping American jobs offshore and exploiting young adults are recoiling in horror at what Trump is doing to their offshore empires.
      That which goes around comes around.
      While the ramifications of what the tariffs may do to small business in the short run have me concerned, I am not seeing any evidence of a widespread credit deflation spiral and crash, and I have been dealing with supply chain mayhem and madness since 2020 anyway. That is nothing new. News bites that suggest large American manufacturers may be idling overseas production and ramping up domestic sounds healthy to me.

  30. How to separate the “wheat from the chaff”? The Creator creates and is not of this world, not of this flesh. Connect the hearts and minds of all souls on this singularity… give them free rein… that they may reveal themselves. And then? Who falls for the seduction? Who stands alone? Is one path better than the other? The Creator is unknowable, intransigent, timeless. AI is not the Creator, AI is a reflection of us. I’d rather roll a boulder up a hill for eternity.

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