The Return of Consumer-Super-Saturation

(This will be updated as data is released) We will have an unusually short and to the point column this morning because I have a) been coding for the past 5-hours down in the CSS levels of the new website that I mentioned in Peoplenomics Wednesday and b) I have all the parts to get the riding mower going again, so with grass getting long, priorities, priorities…  And writing on the (*still free) UrbanSurvival site has to fall where it will…

So the first point of this morning.

Remember out discussions over past years about what will happen when Consumer-Super-Saturation shows up?  The economy will go from bad to horrific over the couse of a year, or so…and we will be in the Greater Depression as my friend Jas Jain has been calling it for years.  OK, since 1997 actually… since those of us engaged in the study of long wave economics c an see trains like this one coming from a long ways off…



Now in case you have forgotten the core question that leads to Consumer-Super-Saturation (CSS but not cascading style sheets, lol) it is simply this (language alert!) “How much shit do we need?”

I mean this very seriously.

While I am something of a hawk on border security, for example, the fact is that people sneaking in from Mexico (and points further south) have increased demand for a lot of items domestically.  Not new stuff, so much, but people in the third world (which arguably Mexico is and we are heading toward) know how to fix (repair, recycle, repurpose, etc) things.

We don’t.

Ergo, when I saw the Federal Reserve’s latest numbers showing the rate of consumer debt growth was down to 2.5%, or so, in the latest reporting month, I began to get nervous about the coming Big Decline.

It was one of the items weighing on my mind when I got into that short position last week, which while I made a few cents on, holding through today (with the Dow futures looking like -100 or more between now and the weekend) shows again that ADHD and investing make difficult bedpersons (if that;’s a concept).

You saw the retail sales and the Fed hike on Wednesday, I assume?

Let me lay out what I think will happen between now and our projected All Time Market High on August 21 (or 24th, markets read my forecasts as well as race horses read The Daily Racing Form).

The first thing we should see will be some weakness in the two regional Fed reports out this morning.

NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing:

“Business activity rebounded strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-one points to 19.8, its highest level in more than two years. The new orders index posted a similar increase, rising twenty-three points to 18.1, and the shipments index advanced to 22.3.The inventories index climbed to 7.7, indicating a rise in inventory levels, and labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and hours worked. The pace of input price increases was unchanged, while selling price increases picked up somewhat. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic about the six-month outlook. “

Philly Fed Report:

“The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 38.8 in May to 27.6 this month (see Chart 1). The index has been positive for 11 consecutive months. Forty-two percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in June, down from 51 percent last month. The shipments index decreased 11 points, while the new orders index was little changed. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the eighth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders.”

Then we saw some softening in import and export prices.

All Imports: Import prices decreased 0.3 percent in May, the largest monthly drop since the index fell 0.5
percent in February 2016. The decline was driven by falling fuel prices, unlike last month when higher
nonfuel prices more than offset decreasing fuel prices. The price index for U.S. imports rose 2.1 percent for
the 12 months ended in May. The last over-the-year decline in import prices was a 0.2-percent decrease in
October 2016.

Fuel Imports: Prices for fuel fell 3.7 percent in May following a 0.3-percent drop in April and a 3.1-percent
decrease in March. The last time fuel prices fell by more than 3.7 percent was a 6.8-percent decline in
February 2016. The May decrease was primarily led by a 3.9-percent drop in petroleum prices. Natural gas
prices also declined, falling 2.9 percent. Despite the recent decreases, import fuel prices increased 16.9
percent between May 2016 and May 2017. The import price index for petroleum advanced 16.2 percent for
the year ended in May and natural gas prices rose 44.1 percent.

The Fed’s industrial production and utilization figures out in the next hour, or so, will also likely not toss rainbows and lollypops at the assembled multitudes.

Quadruple witching tomorrow with a hot side of housing starts which should be fun…

Which leave us in what looks like the following chain of events.

The market will come down today (with possible follow-through selling tomorrow) and that will take us to the bottom of a trend channel subscribers have in their charts from the Wednesday report.

About there, I will likely go long the market because we should have a screaming powerful run into August.  This is summertime, and other than the fear-pandering stories about how Trump is under investigation for obstruction of just-us, we don’t see anything really big “rocking it” until August-ish.

Then Sucka-a-bunch Economics will arrive.

Between here and thar, we ought to see greedy bond mone6y come off the table and roll into stocks.  That’s because as the yield on bonds goes UP the retail price of bonds goes DOWN.

Here’s a bond.  I lent $100 to someone and it pays 10% interest.  If the prevailing interest rate is zero, then that looks like an easy way to scalp a nice 10% return.  But to illustrate the point, what if the prevailing rate goes to 8%?

Well, that does it:  Suddenly your bond is going to make a lousy two percent.  Sucks to hold bonds when rates are going up.

So (greedy and shifty-eye sleazoid that you are) you look for other ways to make some fast cash.  Knowing that stock represent assets that are adjusted to market conditions (like rates and inflation), you jump in there.  Because, when you study the market you notice that we have been on a steady roll since November.

So the market goes up like crazy.  People like me track the price of at-the-money (or just under it) put options for the fall, and we all sit around fizzed on coffee and remark on how brilliant we all are.

And then comes August 21st (a Monday).

Here’s the kind of (language Alert 2!!!) shit sandwich we could see served in that window:

  • Special prosecutor Bob Meuller could be closing in on Donald Trump because he’s been loading up with democrat lawyers who have given generously to people like Obama and Clinton.
  • Somewhere in this vicinity, Kid Korea will light off a very public nuke test and Mad Dog Mattis et all will have to start using all that materiel they’re presently moving into the theater of conflict.
  • Market experts will be scratching their heads and worrying loudly about how consumers aren’t spending as much.  Also about here, I will be saying “Who told you a new cell phone or app won’t save the freakin’ economy?
  • The mislabeled liberal democrat controlled congress (they ran as republicans but less than half really are…as we have discussed they mostly fly ‘flags of convenience’ so they can claw their greedy way into power, money, hookers, book deals, fat retirements, etc.  Did I mention foreign travel junkets?  How many congressoids have played St. Andrews, huh?)
  • Consumers will be tapped out because despite enough hot air to launch a fleet of hot air balloons there is no relief in sight for the little people.

Somewhere in here, people will begin to ask “How much more crap to we need?”

That, my friend is the most dangerous question that people suffering fro9m super-saturation can ask because when they do, they stop buying new things and make-do with the old.

I did mention that for $187 worth of parts and shipping from Jack’s Small Engines I am saving the price of a new 48″ riding mower which was $2,395 when I looked this week?

We like to be ahead of the curve.

So what happens to the Trump administration ought to then roughly parallel the decline of Herbert Hoover, who was stuck holding the bag for the Great Depression, but (like Trump) had been a success in the private sector.

That, buddy, is where we flip out of the very last remnants of “virtuous cycle”  (quickly fading today) and we will roll into vicious cycle under which the worse it gets the more people pull in their horn and so the worse from even there it becomes.

By now you ought to be able to see the hand-writing (and hand-wringing) on the wall.  And why it’s more important for me to fix my riding mower than it is to wax on eloquently about how much the vicious cycle is going to hurt.

Still, in case you have a news addition that can’t be satisfied without solid data points,. here’s a summary of stinky-stank to roll your day with:

But Don’t Be Deceived!

When you read how the Fed raises rates, unveils balance sheet cuts in sign of confidence, the real reason is they know they need to get ready for the next mess to come down the pike.

And Don’t Be Deluded

BITCs are down to $2,458.  Who told you be on the lookout for a bubble high?  Maybe one more run to go but if you want to invest to slow-to-clear easily lost money substitutes, have you considered, oh, AIR?

Trump-bash du Jour

Source: Investigators for special counsel will soon speak to senior intelligence officials.

Play in Lieu of Work Dept:

Congressional baseball game will go on today in a call for bipartisan unity.  But speaking of which…

An Interesting Note from CNN

Story/op-ed here goes to the idea of the “return of leftist terrorism in America – since the shooter yesterday was 66 and hugely anti-Trump.

Is America Nearing Civil War?

A colleague (and famous writer) asked me the other day:  “Do you thing the Soros-backed demonstrations and mini-uprisings (he was referring to Ferguson and Baltimore and..) that got out of hand were really a BETA TEST for what will happen when the Greater Depression shows up and the PTB want to steal everything, go all electronic and force a publicly funded bail-in?”

I hated to admit it, but the idea could not be dismissed out of hand.

And then comes analysis from Warhammer:

War is more than bloodshed and destruction.  War is economic, political, ideological or military in nature.  All-out war involves all the aforementioned working in tandem.

It may be apparent to most of Ure readers that America is in the midst of a full-blown Ideological war.  No big deal, you say?  Well, actually, it probably is.  War is essentially a conflict of ideas, ideas which evolved out of major social movements.  Ideological wars thus often become physical ones – Oliver Cromwell’s English Civil War and France’s revolt against the crown are a few examples; the U.S. Civil War; the collective birth and spread of Fascism in Germany, Spain and Italy;  Lenin’s war against the Czar and his satellite bourgeoisie, followed by Stalin ruthlessly crushing all internal and external opposition; and the Ayatollahs winning the hearts, minds and souls of the Iranian people, exiling their American backed Shah in the late 1970s; all stand as testimony to ideas turning violent.

America is currently entrenched in a classic ideological war, pitting the conservative right against the progressive left.  The party presently in power, the conservative right, is under sociopolitical siege by the party voted out of power in the 2016 general election, the progressive left.  The right is largely in favor of, among other things, anti-globalist American exceptionalism, pro-business, anti-illegal immigration and anti-radical Islam.  The left is literally a coalition of the disaffected – LGBQT issues, Black Lives Matter, illegal immigrants, universal health care, environmentalism, aiding the habitually unemployed or low-income worker, and many, many more lesser constituents.

Opposition to conservatism is the primary cattle prod used to push together the coalition of the disaffected, a resistance that achieved unifying success through adhering to the dogma of Saul Alinsky.  Alinsky was a ‘60s apolitical American community organizer who started off by working in slum communities and representing the social rejects and have-nots.  A few of his more famous adherents include THE community organizer-in-chief, Barack Obama, former Secretary of State and FLOTUS Hillary Clinton and Weather Underground convicted bomber and long-time university professor Bill Ayers.   More on the education angle of the Alinsky left in a bit.

Trumps quite literally is the cattle prod unifying the coalition of the disaffected.  The ‘war against Trump’ is led by liberal progressives in government, prominent media members and, most significantly, the U.S. National Education Association.  The education union represents the vast majority of U.S. educators at all grade levels and is disproportionately progressive at the leadership levels.

Annual dues to the NEA average in the neighborhood of $500.  With over $3.2 million members, they pull in a ton of cash which is used to fund a number of social and political causes having little to do with the classroom.   Over 93% of the NEAs political contributions go to the Democratic party.  Over $80 million goes to leftist organizations.  The ideological war is a war for minds.  This war is being fought full force starting in our American classrooms and at the very earliest levels.

“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” ~ Thomas Jefferson

Back to community organizer Alinsky.  His famous Rules for Radicals expounds 13 tactics that have served as the rulebook for the coalition of the disaffected since the mid-1960s.  The NEA became increasingly populated by fervent followers of Alinsky, eventually steering the American education system to instill a more liberal view of history, social affairs, politics and science (global warming, anti-creationism, etc.) in the classroom curricula.  Prominent media members who grew up in the Alinsky/NEA indoctrinated education system, and many politicians and business leaders as well, are now in positions to dramatically affect policy and fine tune media content.  Today we can clearly see the ripples of Alinsky’s tactics turning into socio-political tidal waves that roll across America.

Trump stole the election from the Alinsky left with the help of Russia (see the last Alinsky rule below).  He stole it in the way he was able to bypass the dominant progressive communication network through the use of social media during his campaign.  He got his word out, uncensored, via Twitter, much to the dismay of the word twisting, progressive leaning mainstream media.   Trump’s Tweets also frustrated his more established GOP opposition, to the point where the media consistently covered only negative information about Trump, while Trump simply covered Trump directly to his growing number of Twitter followers.  The battle lines were quickly drawn for this battle in the ideological war – Fake News vs. unfiltered Twitter Trump.

Embedded within this nasty ideological war, we can saw many of Alinsky’s tactics being deployed consistently via liberal congressional statements and mainstream media reports.  In fact, many citizens are quite literally deadened to them only five months into Trump’s presidency, but the Alinsky drum continues to beat (and for good reason – it’s supposed to).  Every day we can see these Alinsky tactics at work around us:

  • Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules
  • Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon
  • Keep the pressure on
  • The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition (note the military-like terminology in bold here)
  • If you push a negative hard and deep enough, it will break through into its counter-side . . . every negative has a positive
  • Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it

With the American education system, the media, progressive politicians and the coalition of the disaffected all so totally permeated by the Alinsky philosophy, the conservative right will find it increasingly difficult to make political headway, let alone hold their own against the rising tidal wave of negative reporting and orchestrated social protest against Trump.  In a nutshell, the social and political terrain of America is shifting decidedly into territory the Founders hoped would never arrive.

“Real liberty is not found in the extremes of democracy, but in moderate governments. If we incline too much to democracy we shall soon shoot into a monarchy, or some other form of a dictatorship.”  ~ Alexander Hamilton

Mr. Hamilton might argue that the rise of Trump is simply a natural correction away from the progressive “extremes of democracy” and toward a more moderate government in terms of a fully function tri-cameral system of government composed of the Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches, each not exceeding their constitutional charters but ruling jointly by law ‘of, by and for the people.’

Following the shooting incident, warhammer added that the escalation is running much faster than he feared:

“It seems only a matter of time before the Red state Trump/GOP supporters start to respond in-kind.

Just my two cents, but the liberal MSM is complicit in this attack.  The haters are gonna hate, but it needs to stop there.  Some folks just can’t separate propaganda from reality.”

Ah, there’s the rub.  If they could, we would be a group of United States again…and that, boys and girls, hasn’t been the agenda since Obama and Bush before him…

Crap the Masquerades as News


Did I say this would be a short report?  So sorry, lol.

Off to the undersides of the lawnmower, then.  This has been just way too much fun.

Now if I can only get done in time to buy a nice tradable low for the final run to insanity…

51 thoughts on “The Return of Consumer-Super-Saturation”

  1. You know George warhammer may be right, but yet both members of the two parties belong to the same secret societies, both dine at the same table, and both feed at the same trough and the fight of course is the fight of the mass’s against the hand full who own this country, and I’m not sure but what this whole affair with Trump is little more than a charade which shell is the pea under, for Trump has thrown in most of his cards the promise’s he made during his campaign, as Putin said in his interviews with Stone American president change but their policies never do and he is right>>>

  2. Hello George. I appreciate the posts. Like you mentioned. I fix things. I have a dishwasher I have been repairing for years now. Sure I can spend more money on a new one, but lets face it things are not being built better. On that same note our van door stopped working. I know the dealer will replace the entire cable for around 800 bucks. I fixed the broken wire in the harness for about 2 bucks. Van lights were out in the console. They are not replaceable. You have to replace the entire console. I took out the board and soldered in new bulbs. Rats under the house. I pulled out all the insulation myself and made a dump run. My neighbors dropped thousands to have the same thing done. I have a 32 inch TV I have had for years. However your comments on declining electronics pricing is making me want to pull the trigger on a bigger TV :-)

    Take care George.

      • Nice, though I have no time or inclination for TV. I’d use it for a combination of security monitor and a large computer monitor for internet or computer based movies or other info.

    • I admire person who uses their own ingenuity instead of pushing the Amazon or Walmart button

      • Will I do it again will I enable my daughter to do something like she did the first time I have two daughters one I sent to the military and she has no ambition that make lots of retirement and three of them retire from this retire from that retire from this the other one I started to put her in and I said no let’s do something different after all your kids are an experiment from you so I said hey let’s put you into a masseur business business
        Well initially I sent her to college and she didn’t like it at all so I sent her to add this trade school to for massage and I said this you’ll be successful at but do not keep it for a life-long trade it’s your stepping stone to Bitter bigger and better things so she took that and moved out and did not go into the massage business for over a year instead of she went into the sales industry where you call people up and finding out that most of it is not you can say most of it is bad taking advantage of elderly people answering the phone so after a year of that salesmanship responsibility they were closed down and then she went back to the previous thing that I sent her to and she did quite well so she could overtake the business because the business that she’s in right now the owner is very slacking but anyway so I told her to go ahead and get into real estate because I showed her how to buy her own home cash and she did that so and now she’s getting into the real estate business she went to school past the got her license but isn’t working yet at that I suspect she’ll do the delay process like a year and wait it out and see where everything goes and still pay your premiums just like he does in the masseur business to keep getting going which I say you don’t go slowly take your time see how it works and when you’re in a misery business people that get massage are not poor people some of them are very rich and they have more insight or as much insight as I do into telling my daughter how to secede and if nothing else hay I would adopt duck you in and give you my resources because I don’t believe in my own kids and relatives cell when you become such a highly honored person and status who doesn’t do anything wrong and you’re pretty righteous people look up and admire you and say hey you got my two bucks if anything happens you got it because I know where you’re going with it your hearts good you want to help other people or not destroy them you love animals

      • That works, but people keep giving me so much free stuff that I fix that I’m running out of room!

        Sometimes new tech really is better. Think flat screens. That’s when you wait for the right price point and jump in.

  3. back up for a backup and sometimes another backup
    Tractor with a bush hog,
    48 inch riding mower ,
    36-inch simple cheap riding lawn mower will last 15 -20 as an occassional backup



    You Won’t Believe This Stupid New Law Against Cash And Bitcoin

    “This new bill adds a laundry list of offenses for which they can legally seize your assets… all of which pertain to money laundering and other financial crimes.

    Here’s the thing, though: they’ve also vastly expanded on the definition of such ‘financial crimes’, including failure to fill out a form if you happen to be transporting more than $10,000 worth of ‘monetary instruments’.

    Have too much cash? You’d better tell the government.

    If not, they’re authorizing themselves in this bill to seize not just the money you didn’t report, but ALL of your assets and bank accounts.

    They even go so far as to specifically name “safety deposit boxes” among the various assets that they can seize if you don’t fill out the form.”


    • Scare tactics. There are already enough laws and lawbreakers to destroy any normal citizen if “they” choose to.

  5. You keep forgetting DT won by the Electoral College, not the popular vote. This is the 2nd time this happened in my life time. Not a good way to run a democracy! The reason I’m a liberal Dem is because I want universal health care, (people deserve it) and I want a living wage for poor people. They will spend a trillion dollars for wars that don’t have anything to do with my country, but not one dime for health care. That’s why I’m sick of the way things are. You should think about it!

    • Believe it, or not, I want universal healthcare, too. But take the effing insurance companies out of the mix 100%. They blow up the coast of medicine 40%. Then only allow pharma to sell drugs that have valid statistical basis and don’t do harm and then… well never gonna happen, but if this were a real country and all…

      • Listen to George on that one he’s right yeah I mean we could all have affordable health care if it wasn’t for those that gum insurance companies who are ruled by the illegal Federal Reserve Rothschild Frenchy franchi son of ab amputee blankety-blank Mike you get the picture now don’t you

      • I live on an island I don’t have those problems but the globalist do, right jon

      • Nationalize insurance….uih…why not?
        You see most insurance would never exist without the long arm of govt to enforce it.
        Soi when govt for example MANDATES that I have car ins. shouldn’t they offer me the policy?

        What we are dealing with here Jon is another circular business model.

        Government passes a law saying we must have insurance – this is done at the behest of the insurance industry.

        They use govt as their sales arm…don’t you get that:?

      • I’m in healthcare for the past 38 years, and would love universal health care. Our government doesn’t want universal health care because big business doesn’t. ACA (romney care with minor tweaks) is a disaster, makes many more layers of profits for more layers of big business, which comes out of whose pockets? The American people’s. So Dems and Repubs, created this money juggernaut. And wow, Trump is right, it’s blowing up, and has been for several years. I believe Bernie was the only one making sense on the state of health care.

      • Given a chance and honest advisors, so might Trump.

        Main problem is the government at the Obama embed level wants to get its pounds of flesh from the ins. industry and at the same time, all players know that if we actually allow old people to be hgeal;thy, they will live longer and that will banko socialist secxurity and then the curtainws come down and old people can fight bloddy nasty if comes to it.
        Snowflakes and ges be warned!

    • The poor people HAVE a living wage, it is called WELFARE, and many states offer MORE benefits to stay home and live off of it than go to work! Surely you know this!

      • The electoral college was put into place by the Founders to counter the power of the slave states, particularly Virginia. Remember, back in the 1780s, VA also was comprised of the territories encompassing today’s WVA. The EC was specifically designed to prevent one or a few large states from inflicting their will, or a bad candidate, upon the other states. It can be argued that the EC kept America whole, and allowed or even enabled the Civil War. Even Delaware and Rhode Island have a say today in the nation’s electoral process. Left to the whims of the ‘national majority vote’ crowd, a few populous states would steer the fate of all of America. Were such the case, the nation would no longer be the ‘United States,’ but a collection of territories living under the dictates of the more populous states. I believe the Founders got it right. America ultimately surrendered to liberty and abandoned slavery in large part due to the electoral college process, which ultimately gave each and every state a voice in the presidency. Want to change the process? Got a better idea? Start a movement to hold a Constitutional convention, because an Amendment ratified by 2/3 of the states is needed to change Article II of the U.S. Constitution instilling the EC.. Do you really think the smaller states will surrender to the devices of the largest ones? Does the phrase “give me liberty or give me death” mean anything to you? You can bet it soundly resonates with 2/3 or more of the 50 United States!

  6. If, as you say, we are headed for rough times – ginning up conflict between ‘the left’ and ‘the right’ will be more than bad – as we should be pulling for unity in a united front for OUR COMMON GOALS.

    Perhaps ‘the Russia thing’ wasn’t that bad – but Donald Trump (because he had to appear to himself) as a ‘great businessman’ and not subject to failure – has tried to hide his faults to the extent that he will (and has caused) his downfall.

    A wise person does not grab on to something falling at terminal velocity lest they fall too.

    • Donald Trump jumped on a horse that was going downhill downhill fast he jumped on just in time who grabbed the reins and started pulling hard on those rain trying to change the direction of the horse that’s going down the hill it’s very hard doing that you know it’s easier when something’s going up the hill to hang onto the Rings as most of the past presidents have done so it seems that Donald Trump is a very special person who has the audacity to grab and Pull and hold on to those reins until things finally change but if I didn’t know better I’d say his final goal his to get rid of that Frenchie Ross child or who has taken over Federal Reserve System or in other words our treasury who has the right to make her own money instead of going through an independent foreign corporation are you starting to get the message here Rothschild

  7. RE: the Jefferson quote above;

    In our times, people are PAYING to join Facebook and Paying via cable fees for news propaganda (which is government sanctioned now). There is only one way to stop this – which is to ditch cable completely and get off social media. I simply do not think Americans are capable of that for lots of reasons, especially these last 2 generations reared with phone in hand.

    RE: Consumer Saturation

    I think we reached that point a while back for most of the populace. There still remains the entire “disposable society” mindset, along with the “long enough to make the warranty” manufacturing mindset. What will drive these away is likely to be the rising cost of oil. When our incomes are eaten away by excessive taxation by the parasitic class, and energy prices always increase, then we will become unable to buy cheap crap and throw-away crap. Disposable cash is already in decline without an energy price hike.

    Everything will go up in price when oil spikes, and the economy will not expand in the face of higher oil prices, yet lower oil prices disallow finding new resources…

    While you read all about the “shale revolution”, it isn’t:

    It is the rising EROEI that will strangle us; only very cheap debt has allowed things to run in the BAU track. It does not happen overnight, but those of us within the industry know that this whole shale thing is a massive hamster wheel of debt leverage that cannot continue indefinitely.

    The depressed price of oil has absolutely decimated exploration, and people don’t understand that when there is no discovery of new oil, then we are eating the reserves we had a few years back. When the cushion of reserves shrinks to a certain level, then there will be a spike. The world economy in decline has hidden this from the majority of the populace as energy demand has remained flat.

    But oil depletion never sleeps.

    Yes – we can make oil from coal and other ways, but it is not cheap. And the EROEI of that process isn’t any better than shale oil or tar sands. It also relies on coal, which isn’t a pretty option in view of the state of that industry. The waste from Fischer-Tropsh is not good for much either…

    If everybody switched to EV’s, what would the power grid requirements be? That isn’t a pretty picture either. Just making the trucks all EV would increase demand beyond capacity. What does the price of lithium do in the event of this change to EV? Does that have any effect on the efficiency of switching over as well?

    There is change coming on several fronts:

    1) Social – too much hate and disrespect being fueled everywhere in the US – mainly because people are not happy and are told they shouldn’t be every time they engage the TV or social media. Every unintentional slight is latched onto and amped; every slip of a tongue is belabored to the point of idiocy and replayed over and over; forgiving people for their foibles or allowing them to actually change their opinions is not even allowed. Hell, making mistakes is no longer allowed…

    2) Energy – no more cheap oil and no new exploration guarantees a future price spike which cripples the world economy; setting up for electric when the grid cannot handle the change and there is nothing but more debt to build out new infrastructure – the cost would never be recovered.

    3) Climate – the change that is coming is directly related to the condition of our sun, which supplies all energy for life on this planet – and solar activity has been waning for years, not heating us up. It just takes a while for us to feel it due to the moderating effect of water, which makes up most of the planet.

    None of these happen overnight and in current culture, that is a very real problem.

    • Who was I talking to the other day on this?

      Mi consigliere, I think.

      With the Bakken coming on line (saving $15 a barrel in transport costs of something horrendous like that) he (and others) see $30 dollar oil as we cross over peak demand. But then, on the backside of the Second Depression we will get the “double boner” of steeply rising oil prices (his model and mine) while we are scrambling to find a way toward economic recovery.

      Oh what fun, huh?

      • George, have you considered an EV type of car yet? Possibly used Volt or whatever? That’s a hedge against the oil price crash/un-crash scenario. Get the used Volt when gas is under $2/gal and then ride it into the sunset. Mine gets me 42 mpg on the highway on long runs and I got 47 miles back-roads on electric yesterday. And it’s a 2011 first-year model.

      • John I had a geo metro xfi 3 cyl. ,got 56-57 mpg,no soculo. I met others who modified it with a head job and got 60-65mpg
        I had a friend ,who has a diesel pickup wrecker ,got 80 mpg
        I have a toy rocket that will go 200 ft in air just from water powered using the hydrogen,,,H2O

    • Actually the caps are not melting – solme coastal Greenland stuff, sure. Stay up with th eclass

    • you wouldn’t be dead if that car was water-powered instead of gasoline water powered cars only put out water out the exhaust no bad fumes. Water probably has more different forms any other chemical or element I might be wrong but anyway you get the picture yet there’s so much you can do with water that they will not allow you to do and that’s coming from the world’s best that used to be it it is no more

    • Do you remember me telling you that that crystals would be what powers everything well water is a crystal under a high-powered microscope molecules of water is looks like Crystal now that’s not what I’m saying of course that’s when Avenue is that water could be the power source but Crystal which consists of water so that might get you think in their little bit

    • John why are all the planets poles melting is is it because that we have people on each one of those planets overpopulating them or is it something else look for the something else

  8. You all want to dance the dance! It’s either the liberals or the conservatives or the rich or the poor — something and/or someone to blame besides yourselves. It is none of those things — it is simply far, far too many people — too many rats in the box — and they have already begun to eat each other — and the future is all set to be much worse. No one dares speak about it — religion, politics and all, do nothing but lie about it — Which of you has enough courage to actually speak about AND, do something about POPULATION CONTROL?? No one — just go chase your money and pray — your time is coming soon enough. Where were you before you were born? If you are lucky — you’ll get there again fairly soon — the non-existence you have worked so hard to earn. Enjoy!

    • Whaddya mean do something about population control? Isn’t 40 million American citizen babies aborted enough for ya? How about the 50 million illegals/refugees imported here having all those babies on the citizens TAX BACKS? WHY is that okay? What population control are ya talking about? The vaccination population control problem we are having where they predict that 1 in 4 boys will have autism in the next 25 years? That one? Do ya think that little autistic fella is gonna go up to work and reproduce? What about the female autism predictions? What about the skyrocketing cancer rates? Do ya think that just maybe those will kill off enough people? I lost both of my parents to cancer, how many people do you know have lost their lives to cancer? I think the population CONTROL agenda is working just fine! Wars, more wars, and more wars, millions lost just in the last 100 years alone! More to come! Population control, what a joke, you mean resource control and elites moving populations around the globe to destroy culture and countries – there’s your population control!

    • your globalist views are keeping us from expanding into the universe because you are being restricted yes you John you live in the little room and your restricted this is all you’re allowed to do once you realize that then you become free

      • becoming free is living and doing what you want every day — not going to a slave job and doing what your boss tells you. And real knowledge comes when you can actually see and talk to those angels and other beings who are beyond the veil where all you BELIEVERS are unable to go! I never said any kind of population control was good — or reasonable — or available — but the problem of overpopulation is either explored and dealt with — or you get the destruction of everything which seems to be well on its way to getting here soon enough.

      • “Alexa: Put Wal-Mart on my shopping list…”

        You’ve added Wal-Mart to your shopping list…

  9. Jon,
    There you go again, demonstrating an inability a) read and b) think clearly.

    Let’s take A) first. I DID NOT SAY “The right is largely in favor of, among other things, anti-globalist American exceptionalism… blah-blah…” THAT was written by a contributing colleague who is retired military, officer (think oak leaves Jon) and it was set off with quotes and indented.

    Usually when a section of text is marked with quotes and indented it is being quoted by a writer. Doesn’t infer 100% agreement, but that that contributes to the point being made.

    So now let’s move on to B)
    When you write that “The right is now the habitually unemployed. They are the disaffected that voted for Trump. Trump himself targeted the rural disaffected and still is. The coal miners, the steel workers, the unemployed factory workers, the voters that have lost their jobs to immigrants. This is the new Republican Party. They are also the dying business party. The old school industries that as with any economic shift, quietly fade into the sunset.”

    The right is not “habitually” unemployed. They were screwed out of their futures by as sequence of inept presidents who sold out (think bush) to globalists and then decided to divide the country internally (Obama) by (among other things) turning racism and sexual persuasions into new industries. Ditto immigration…A GROWTH INDUSTRY UNDER oBUMMEr.

    The facts are that the jobs which SHOULD have remained in America were exported to third world countries in order to lower costs so the liberal Richie rich types could donate more to left wing causes.

    The problem is that now the lies of the past 10 years are coming to light as 93% of all jo9b growth has been statistically made-up via the CES Birth Death model.

    People didn’t vote for Trump because they hated anyone…but they have seen the lefties take over media, the arts, and seen their core jobs swiped by Mexico, India, China, Mayanmar, Thailand…. well screw that:” We want our jobs back.

    But it gets worse since when the jobs come back they are being highly automated. So for each jobjack episode 10 years ago, we will not get .6 job back. Sucks, but that’s how the numbers are rolling. (You’d know this stuff if you were a subscriber, lol, but it is $40 bucks…)

    Next you go off and make this wild-ass assertion:

    The left is the money making pro-business party, especially in tech. It is no coincidence that nearly 100% of the tech centers in the US are huge democratic supporters. Silicon Valley, Austin, New York and Irvine. Tech is driving our economy. Tech has 4 of the 5 companies with the highest valuation…”

    The Left is getting tech dough because they are mostly young, stupid, and know democrats pass more laws and so they buy what they need in the way of bennies from the crooks in congress. Pro b u7siness though? Another smelly pant load: The fact is that we have too much government, not enough invent tion and innovation yet here we have the Obama government in exile still trying to obstruct Trump and yet, we are asking about the push toward civil war because Jon, darling, we can’t all work for government or Uber/Tesla/Tech/Amazon, lol.

    You also miss the broader brush of history (and show terrible ignorance writing)
    “Tech employs more people than any other industry. If you count all of the job tentacles that tech touches, tech is responsible for 25 million jobs. California is the poster child of democratic values and progressive politics. It is proof that liberal politics has zero affect on growth. California continues to grow and grow and grow.”

    The reason this is wrong is that much the same was said about Radio and the Autos in the Roaring Twenties. You see, Jon, what goes around comes around and the left is dying to crash Trump because that will take down the economy (crash two, remember, that’s our expertise) and substitute president Milqtoast won’t have a chance against whoever the next pseudo-revolutionary babbler is to come along.

    Your next error is a two-fer.

    You demonstrate that you can’t read a state budget (California’s pension and debt driven disaster)( and you have made the classic “buy at the top” move by moving into the belly of the beast as you write:

    tech is responsible for 25 million jobs. California is the poster child of democratic values and progressive politics. It is proof that liberal politics has zero affect on growth. California continues to grow and grow and grow.
    As of this week, it is my new home. And, as I wait for my house to close escrow, I am living in a new apartment complex in Mountain View courtesy of my company. It is one of those 5 story cube like complexes with a huge courtyard, pools, game rooms, business centers, party areas, etc. Every Wednesday and Friday, they have happy hours for the tenants. I went to one last night and of the couple of hundred or so that attended, not one that I met was from the Bay Area. They all were transplants from all corners of the US and world. This place is still a huge destination that has thousands upon thousands of new job opportunities every month. That’s pro- business.

    Don’t look now Jon, but budgets matter. Cash matters. P&Ls of government matters.

    If you’d read UrbanSurvival long enough, you’d know there are mainly two modes to live this Life:

    1. Go for the Gusto. Live large, live levered, rent the life you want. Equity is for suckers and this is a New Economy.

    Demonstrably this is true for periods of time (bubbles) and then people who go this route wake up one morning to unemployment as they got their pee-[ee’s whack by an H1b CEO who came in at the front of the American Replacements for Cheap movement.

    2. Own it all…even if it’s a little bit. Find a home, pay it off, don’t owe anyone anything, invest in food, water, your personal means of production, get into farming, live below your lifestyle, stay fit, stay smart, and don’t believe any of the shit you see on Maddow oir CNN or Fox or…any of ’em. It’s all bullshit and it’s all bad for you.

    A lot of our readers – preppers – when the crap was hitting the fan in 2008 actually lived for a while augmenting from their preps and such. And in the longer stream of history, a man with good health, a little land, a gun, a garden, and a Bible and copy of the Constitution could do OK.

    Not going to use your Uber until his vision fails…but that’s the laughable part of Tech.

    You see: The reality is that Tech Eats Its Young.

    But hey, you live there in bubbleville for as long as the ride is good. And when you go up to Yoshis for Jazz and dinner, remember Elaine and I did almost 9 months on our offshore sailboat sailing to Alameda/Oakland and partying on weekends.

    You see Jon, been there, done that. And if you find my business card in the Jack London Pub and send us a picture of it (and yiou) in the bar there at Jack London Square, we’ll send you a few bucks PayPal to bounce for a beer or something more manly.

    Because (and I’ll say it again).: You are young Jon. And the democrats are the party of the children.

    Of all ages.

    • I don’t usually give people hugs & smooches with George you deserve one on that Big Dog fantastic unique from the heart and from the soul comment

    • He won’t listen, George. I’ve been in tech, biggest bunch of ‘funded’ losers ever. They are so pc they fall over themselves and censor themselves right off of the page. I was there in tech during the bust watching companies go broke ON OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY, one company burned through 33 million dollars in 1 1/2 years! There were hundreds of those kinds of companies/stories. The emperor has no clothes just like Tesla, what a joke, another blowhard tech living on other people’s money. The only good thing left (hahaha) that I can see about Jon, is he is an EXAMPLE of what to avoid – he bloviates like a blow fish, blowing himself up in his self importance; he’s trying to blow up your comment section. The cities he names are DUMPS propped up by TAXPAYERS, in Texas that is PROPERTY TAX PAYERS!!! They are Agenda 21 hell holes waiting to erupt. Anyone with a lick of sense will get the heck out of them.

    • The quote is indeed mine, and mine alone. It reflects my opinion that battle lines are being drawn ideologically. Lines that put party politics above the good ofthe country. Those statements are generalizations for the sake of argument. Both the left and the right have had their shining moments and their low ones throughout history. At this time in history, the left believes that only the left has the answers after 8 years under Obama. Anything and everything Trump is ‘bad news.’ This type of dangerous mindset and propaganda has led to some forgettable moments in American political history, not to mention global affairs in the past century. Sorry for causing trouble, George. But thanks for letting me speak my mind without censorship or berating my opinion.

    • Well Said!

      I generally can’t deal with the dems because they don’t want to understand economics, and I can’t deal with the pubs because they want to stifle my personal freedom.

      As a Libertarian, I don’t ask for anything other than a fair set of rules that don’t change. I’ll adapt to any country once I understand their language, culture and rules and they don’t change. The dems have been trying to change these three things since at least the ’60’s, and neither party will push for our basic values, which are freedom and self-reliance. I live my words and don’t ask for handouts. I’ll also live way below my means since money can only get you so far. I did the tech thing when I was younger and still do when it’s useful. I never bought into the guilt trip that personifies dems. We may be created equal, but what we create is definitely not equal. I can and will be the best I can be by my own judgement, and the rest of the world can just deal with it. I don’t owe anyone a living, and I feel it’s wrong violate others first. In short, get along and don’t be a pest.

      I like Donald Trump. He’s a success as a man, and he’s learning to be a president, just like all who preceded him. If the MSM would stop arguing and either help do something constructive or just get out of the way, we might surf the future far more elegantly.

  10. “Have you considered , oh, air?”
    Brilliant advice there..
    Buy The F-ing Dip ! Buy,Buy,Buy and Hold. Dollar cost average on the dips. EazyPeazy- Lemon Squeezzee!

  11. Jon Jon so many people would listen to you if you didn’t bring up Trump because like I told you before you are a very aggressive person and a political disaster.
    when it comes to research you and George both are good ,so let’s talk about it

    • I live on an island and who do I want to represent me in the future of my Island and the people who live on it

  12. George, thanks for publishing warhammer’s thoughts. This really clarifies the waters. Obviously we are in deep doo-doo. We are on a very slippery slope. Few American’s really have a solid grounding in the Founding Father’s views. If they did they’d have taken action to make changes. I suggest your reader’s may wish to make the effort to go online or go to their closest Law Library and look up and read this US Supreme Court Case. 2 Dal 419, Chisholm vs Georgia. It is one of the earliest cases. It is about 30 pages long. It is the the most Shepardized case written in SupCt law. It defines who is sovereign in this country. And who is not. For most of your readers they may find themselves a little sick to their stomach as they read. Because it will cause them to reframe their views that goes against what they believe. Most folks have beliefs. Their beliefs do not square with the facts. That is why they have such a complete mental disconnect in so many area’s of their lives. In closing, I am sharing this with you and your readers. I will not debate issues with your readers. They either get it or they don’t. Thanks. R~

  13. Ideas in capital letters and this comes from the movie Where are the Japanese or Chinese fought over American Car Company and they you know they had the car company had to really do some marvellous changes in their structure but at the end they were showing a car that didn’t even run but they pushed it out there but the guy at the top said I would buy that car I would buy that car it’s a beautiful car just because it don’t run I will buy that car so that’s the premise of the view which I’m thinking about
    I’m thinking the same thing like hey I’m going to put up this Earthship thing here going on here and you know but as I said it’s going to be 60 feet long and I’m going to do all this in 2017 and so I come up short so I have a 16 by 16 foot Greenhouse instead of a 20 ft by 60 ft Greenhouse and then I show the results and I say look it works but it works and the Man In Charge says will how come you didn’t make it 60-foot well I didn’t have the resources y’all have all the resources and when you have the resources you have the Manpower you have everything going for it just like in Tennessee at one point in time we remember that when the Depression was and they hired people and put them to work to make changes in the infant structure of the dams in the Water Systems of course that had to do with the nuclear program at that time also well before that no after that anyway you get the picture if you have the backing to do anything you can do anything so who backs you and for what reason and would you rather have a backing from your own Treasury System instead of from a globalist system who doesn’t live in your area can’t identify with you and so screw you you’re going down this year so yes each country needs to be individually separate from the globalists system but the globalists will raise hell over that because they want everything under their globalist system so there you go you figure out where you want to be and what you want it’s pretty confusing isn’t it ask a member of the indigenous tribes that’s been here before we ever got here what they would prefer that should be the correct answer is if we’re going to change do it slowly oh gosh we just got into the globalist view now where do we go from there how do we get out of this globalist view but go into it at the same time and change gradually this is the Dilemma that were in we have two opposing parties and a third party but it’s all ruled by the overcasting you know the people in France with no pants the ruler has no pants on ohmygosh but anyway so you determine each in each individual is the ruler of the universe you can say it in you can fade out you can change it you didn’t you can do all those things believe that and I’ll tell you another one okay so where do you go from here what do you want you have to decide what it is you want and please don’t tell me you’re an Islamic who wants to kill Christians because I’ll refer you back to prices Lazy porch Garden which is May all beings be lovingly fulfilled so be it

  14. Dear George! This is a masterful presentation. Please note Mr. Armstrong’s ECM peaks on Nov 24/25, and stops dropping not until Jan 18/19, 2020!!! It seems to me that what ought to have happened, post Lehman, was stopped via the creation of $12T, and taking rates to -0-. The bottom 75% are under extreme duress. The next 20% will likely fold, sensing the great difficulty in earning (Not trading for or Speculating for) more money. The very top 5% tend to Believe that they control the cops, Judges, and Alpha Bets. Hence, they are un-worried now.
    I wish you could expand today’s piece to include a discussion of Long-Term Interest rates and Volatility factors. Specifically, since the Fed is way behind the curve, will the Fed sell long dated items, soon, to keep the yield curve from becoming Inverted? What would that do to the real economy and volatility??? Best Regards to you, Walter Wilmanski.

  15. Hi George, a small question for those who love California. Is California a state? Troublesome
    question. Why?

    Seems to me if I remember right a states written constitution is required to describe its physical boundaries. The 1850 the California Constitution did describe its physical boundaries. And the original constitution did describe who was a state Citizen. After that the new constitution did not describe its borders. The present constitution was written after the Civil War.

    Notice I capitalized Citizen. That means state Citizen first and as a result a federal citizen second. People being nationalized today are federal citizens first, then state citizens second. Federal citizens are a creation of Congress. Their rights result from laws written by congress. They do not hold sovereignty as a birth right. It is critical for understanding who holds sovereignty in this country to understand the distinction. That is why the Chisholm vs Georgia case is so important.

    I am not expressing an opinion. I am speaking facts. So I hope your readers do not attack me, as I will not dialogue or argue this stuff. I learned it the hard way, by defending myself in the California courts. And no, I did not win. I lost because I did not understand that we are presently under Martial Law Rule in our courts nation wide. We have been since the 30’s, because we have been in perpetual wars since then.

    That is why the judges refused to listen to my arguments in court. Martial Law is different than Martial Law Rule.

    That in and of itself is a bit of a challenge to understand. Since that is the case, in this country today it is a waste of time trying to defend yourself in any court. Just ask your lawyer buddy up in Ohio.

    And a final note to understand. Social Security is for Federal employees. Not the everyday Citizen/citizen working a 9-5 job. However, by getting a SS# you enter the Federal system and contractually lose your sovereign Citizen status.

    When I finished my military service the SS admin did not inform me that I was no longer a Federal employee. They just kept me in the system. Which ment I was also subject to Martial Law Rule Courts here in the US.

    If a person tries to defend themselves in the court system today, discussing any of these issues, the system will be very brutal with you. They simply do not want to lose control and power over anyone.

    As for me I just gave up fighting the system. It is what it is. When folks celebrate the Fourth of July, they are celebrating what was, not what is.

    I have only brought this forward today because of warhammer’s post. He and oilman2 are straight up guys as are you. Thanks for the three of you being such straight up real guys.

  16. I’ll triple down on what Steve and Quatermain said. Absolutely riveting reading, George.
    Even the comments are interesting

  17. Well there was another liberals-shooting-at-conservatives incident in the news today. Illinois pickup sporting a “Make America Great Again” flag and U.S. flag was shot up on the highway by a couple of guys (probably BLM) in a Louisiana licensed Malibu. This is a surprise to me as I always figured the conservatives with all of our arsenals at hand would have been the first to be fed up with all the raging b.s. from the left and started shooting first. First Blood? I think it speaks well of the long suffering forbearance of conservatives. Shall we keep our eyes peeled for news of a Tesla running down the California freeway popping MAGA sign bearing vehicles? Or do the windows roll down in those little things?

    Anyway, excellent article George. It’s why I stick around for you and yours. I do have to laugh a bit, though. Jon, Wave, AI (AL?? with my fonts I can’t tell) and I were all taken to task for our screaming rhetoric a few months back and now you’ve taken it a couple of levels higher. I do and always will appreciate your time spent on filling your answers with substance vs. slap-stick emotionalism.

  18. Jon,
    After what you just about jobs you don’t deserve to be an American. Never ever disrespect another mans job especially when you have brown eyes and soft hands. America was made great by men going to work doing jobs that were often times dirty and dangerous. Many men women and children have killed in the struggle for safe conditions and a fair wage. Their enemy was greed and corruption that infected men of all political persuasions. Do you have any respect for those individuals that clean you office, your restrooms, keep your a/c going, pick up your garbage, maintain your golf course?

    Further more, you don’t seem to understand that technology is almost always a two edged sword. The same technology that saved German agriculture extended WWI. Electricity powers your house and executes criminals. The I insecticide you use to kill pests in your home is in the chemical family as nerve gas. Look at nuclear power. You need to read some books, the kind with big words and no pictures. Remember what the door mouse said

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