The topic du jour is a rethinking of what drives the economic Long Wave. First identified by Nikolas Kondratieff (Kondratiev to revisionists) in 1926, the notion of a 48-64 year economic cycle as a driver of future events is with us even now.
Still, there are many questions about “the wave” and how it is seen. So today a renewed conversation with an amazingly smart colleague who I worked with in 2001 when we advanced the notion of a currency debasement (displacing value with debt behind a currency) and projected a maximum cycle length in the 83.5 year range.
After some coffee, headlines, and the charts, some really useful thinking about the times directly ahead. I nice break from the news flow that; constitutes the National Distraction and the coming of Digital Mob Rule.
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H, the K wave chart is really blurry. Almost unreadable. Can you post a sharper copy please?
Sorry – clear as I could get it… will check with EM
EM’s work is right on and he has nailed the source/triggers, which I’ve had problems with. Please thank EM for sharing. If he has a PayPal account I’d like do a donation.
Questions about your Net Down prediction. I pay all bills online. Do you see this disappearing with a return to mailed paper bills and mailed check payments? How would that work if there is a banking holiday? My SS payment is direct deposited by Uncle Sam. Would that be suspended too? And does banking holiday mean no access to vault box where I store “things”?
Great question – thank you!
I will ponder this and include it in the upcoming Satursday piece.
here’s an opening snip:
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Don’t worry if the news in recent years has made less and less sense/ There’s a simple reason for it that no one dares speak about openly. However, since the Fourth of July is upon us, it’s past time to get real with ourselves and admit that America now has two governments.
Which means, that we are in a “Webolutionary War.”
There are aspects of intergenerational, plenty of left-wing/socialist/communist influences, sure-sure, all that. But, it’s also a war involving money – one of the root causes of all wars.
Oh, yeah, and one possible outcome is (as I’ve written since 2012) the Licensing of the Internet.
So bean up – a few headlines, the charts, and so forth – but then into the foxholes as Commandante Ure’s non-partisans survey the battlefield and make sense of both side’s fortifications. A report that will leave you charged up, indeed…
If the ‘Net is “regulated,” commerce won’t be affected. If the ‘Net is “limited” or curtailed, all bets are off, including whether your SS payment even makes it to the bank.
When there is a “bank holiday,” the front doors are locked at every branch of every bank. Employees and auditors may be present, but no public access will be allowed. “Bank Holidays” typically only last a day or two. It is a stunt banksters have historically pulled to cool the fires of a bank run, and probably of no great concern…although I believe FDR used the stunt to separate some people from their gold coinage, when they refused to surrender it to the gummint voluntarily.
Any chance you could repost the Ure-Mazarok correlation? Index does not go back that far.
Check your email…may take a minute
Yeah for public union members
I heard the Dem primaries in CA nominated 2 Democratic Socialists in place of 2 entrenched Establishment Democrats, one who was to replace Plelosi as minority leader.
We can see where the Dems are headed. Wasn’t it @ 6 years ago if you called a Democrat a Democrat Socialist, you were labeled a racist. Don’t the Democrats have any idea what is happening in their party. The old farts are getting tossed, & the new socialist breed is taking the reins, at least in CA.
Just read another piece of good news. President Trump gets to put another of his people on the Supreme Court.
This will help to neutralize those judges in Oregon & Hawaii who think President Trump doesn’t have the right to govern.
Judge Kennedy was conservative, but not a trustworthy one.
If not trustworthy, then not conservative – at least in Texas. A man’s word is his bond, or he’s not a man.
No, he isn’t (conservative.) He is closest to being a JFK Democrat, but I believe he also enjoyed the power trip when the Justices were 4-4 and his was the tie-breaker.
Dear Mr. Ure,
As you suggested, the lines in the sand are well along in the process pipeline such as the Canadaian energy regulator’s procurement tender 84084-18-0093 could indicate.
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/tender-notice/PW-18-0083197
Oops, auto-correct dropped a digit. Add a “3” as the last digit in the above link to read the “security threat monitoring services” tender notice targeting social media.
Looking for a bullish run for the indexes. Overall market still bearish.
Looking for a down open per the last 15 minutes. May be a short term bull buying op?
The 200 MA has been traversed. I am short.
I’m about 5’10”