Rally On Jobs Report

Oh, I can feel the stampede of bulls in just a half-hour when the market opens.  Nothing helps climb a wall of worry like a solid jobs report just out…

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in professional and business services, in health care, and in mining and logging.

Household Survey

Data In March, the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 10.5 million, and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent. Both measures have shown little movement since December 2013. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women increased to 6.2 percent in March, and the rate for adult men decreased to 6.2 percent. The rates for teenagers (20.9 percent), whites (5.8 percent), blacks (12.4 percent), and Hispanics (7.9 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.7 million, changed little in March; these individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed was down by 837,000 over the year. (See table A-12.) Both the civilian labor force and total employment increased in March. The labor force participation rate (63.2 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.9 percent) changed little over the month. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 7.4 million in March. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work.

There will be a special performance of the Church of the Almighty Dollar’s Hallelujah Chorus in lieu of the usual church bell rung at 9:30 Eastern for daily services.  Special versus from the Book of Bull will be all over television channels, to be sure.

More than anything, the Labor Participation Rate kicking up 2-10th’s is what will drive things.  This has been in a long-term decline.  Still, any port in a storm.

Not all the news was good:  The number of people working part time for economic reasons was up 225,000. And table U-6 (the PhD flipping burger index) was up a tad to 12.7% from 12.6.

Still, the Birth Death Model only kicked in 75,000 estimated jobs this month, so over all, it’s almost reason for me to chime in with the Good Times Choir.  Our Peoplenomics Trading Model has delivered by remaining consistently bullish while my gut was wrong and holding out for Pepto and Tums by the boxful.

Climate Change  No, Just Spring

Ah, we were up a couple of times overnight as the southern tail of lightning and thunderstorms rolled across Texas and up into the Arkansas area .

And as if that’s not enough weathering news, we also have near-hysteria about “winter storm Yona” – OMG, get under the bed quick!

Now, here’s the deal, plain and simple with a picture to go with it.

You see the tree over on the right?  That is one of Ure’s dogwood trees.  I took the picture about 20 minutes ago.

If I had taken the picture at the same time last year, the blossoms would have been gone by now.  But everything is running late.

Climate is not a “fixed” event.  It is a pile of statistics and it has (like most piles of numbers) central tendencies and even two stand deviation channels (kind of like financial market variances).

Somewhere in the pile of hate mail from the climate believers, one told me to look at data from Alaska because this winter has been warm up there.

Well, perhaps.  But snowfall this year (Anchorage) has been 76.7” which is about 6-inches more now than normal.

Maybe they were referencing Fairbanks?  There the heating degrees since July of last year was 11,089 this year, versus 12,178 normally.  91% of normal is not quite dust-bunny material, if you know what I mean.

Climate (el Nino/la Nina) just drifts around and gee, don’t you suppose the tornados overnight are why there’s a Wiki entry for Tornado Alley?

I’m the easiest guy in the world to sell climate change to.  It’s just that I’ve read widely on the Dust Bowl.  And droughts and variances happen all the time.  The Climate Variance deniers are pimping a global climate tax and ever-more government regulation of everything right down to (and now including) cow farts.

Economics, dear reader:  Everything is a Business Model.  Yeah, verily, even climate.

Here at the ranch we’ve had 6.3 inches of rain this year.  11.6 is normal.  So 56% of normal.

Around here, though, we don’t call it climate change.  We call it “A dry year” and plan accordingly because the rains have always come back, eventually.  Even without elaborate carbon-trading schemes.

How about that?

It Was What Day?

There was a huge flurry of buzz yesterday about how African countries were refusing a huge US aid offer in return for taking in millions of American’s who could be displaced by a mega quake at Yellowstone.

Ooooo…sounds serious…..

Until you apply both brain cells and trace it all back to an article that can be translated here.

And yes, it was published on what day?  April Fools!  But gullible doesn’t take days off, apparently.

Serious Warning for L.A. Gays

Keep tabs on the meningitis outbreak reported!

Seeing Ahead: Soon to Be News

So of next week’s news headlines are already predictable: 

Former IRS official Lois Lerner will be called before congressman Darrell Issa’s committee to answer contempt of congress.

A recreational marijuana store’s opening in Fort Collins next week – if not delayed by local officials, will not doubt turn a few “heads.”.

In sports, it’s warm up The Golf Channel because Masters time is here.

And temps in Los Angeles will be into the 90’s by mid week, if you insist on throwing earthquake predictions about and you remember Joe Brandt’s dream.

A Jobless bill will be up for a vote in the senate next week, as well… this would restore cuts made to benefits of 2.3 million Americans.  It’s likely to be a party-line vote, but since the dems own the senate, this could be a windfall.

And the last of the XP security updates will likely start to flow before next week is out.

That much we know from looking at the news headlines.

Our www.nostracodeus.com project has been going on at some length about financial swings next week,  

But likely the Big Story next week could be a naval confrontation off what used to be Ukrainian territory.  Already this morning, we’re seeing reports on how “Russia Warns Turkey, US on American ships in Black Sea” which is becoming a Russian-owned pond.  (You may need a proxy server to get that report btw, not totally available when we checked it.).

The Russians are laying the groundwork in the rest of the world’s press that the US is extending ship visits past what is agreed in the Monteux Convention.  So our weekend reading assignment in order to be well-armed intellectually for future events, would be to read the short article in Wikipedia about the Convention (here) as while it’s only a 2-5% probability of this “gong hot” (as in mushrooms) it’s always nice to read the legalese to see which side if citing what clauses.

Unless, of course, you don’t want to be disappointed.  In which case, another round of reality show reruns is definitely your cup of tea.