QFRV: Quest For Real Value

With the Fed meeting today, we are looking at the larger picture and asking…the same old question. Where’s the value?

We think social media is beginning to crack up and as we laid out their business models as far back as 2013, we could see trouble coming.  But, it’s not social media that’s gone bad.

When today’s latest (and sick) attempt at “making up money” as a new crypto currency arrived in my email overnight, it screamed: “This could be your last chance of turning 100 dollars into a fortune. You do not want to miss this opportunity...” You can almost smell “the turn” in the air.

(Continues below)

 

This “turn” is one of awareness:  Where a large chunk of the world wakes up one morning and suddenly a terrible number of relative truths are accepted:

  1. Mueller hasn’t still got Trump. And the election results are still in place.  How much time can we waste on this?
  2. Facebook and social media is a largely ego-driven waste of time.
  3. Cryptos are doing like the government – making up money – even more so than dollars.  And they don’t have an army or navy to back ’em up.
  4. Oil prices may drop shortly due to autonomous drilling.  Not killing the oil patch – already slammed.  But here again, “The Robots are Coming!  The Robots are Coming!  Everyone hold your jobs!  The Robots are Coming!”
  5. The US dollar is worth less than 4-cents of purchasing power compared with 1913 when another crooked congress abdicated money and tossed the gold and silver notion…
  6. Gender-bending is a business model.  D’uh.  The mis-named “educators” are programming it into the junior ape units as we speak.
  7. Hysterical news media evidences a collision between business models.  Trump’s hated by the media because he had the balls to “go Consumer-Direct” on Twitter and cut out the old business model – the corporate press…
  8. There’s no Planet X about to wipe us out, ditto no global subsidence…three-fingered aliens?  Maybe.
  9. The sun really is at 100 year low output levels so kiss off global warming and Al Gore’s climate tax scheming.  Give me $300-million in grant money and I will prove anything you want.  Peer-reviewed, at that.

This may see a bit harsh, but the signs are there that something’s amiss and people are picking up on it.

Early this morning (4 AM Central) it was amusing to watch the morning’s full-court press to arb the markets up at the open.  Starting with a story in the Wall St. Journal “Stocks Regain Footing but Tech Woes Continue to Weigh,” we have been following one hype story after another.

Likely:  Deep State/Plunge Protection Team doesn’t want to “let ‘er rip” just yet.  But, it’s a dangerous balancing act…once the markets get past a certain point, it’s too big to control.  Remember the problems of Siegfried & Roy?  The market’s like Montecore  (the tiger) and when it turns….

The early US futures – showing -75 on the Dow early – have had plenty of time for KoolAid in lieu of coffee.  Orderly open – just what the PTB like to engineer.

But. the big question remains on the table;  What will the Federal Reserve – whose meeting starts this morning and results in a rate announcement tomorrow – do  behind closed doors?

A lot depends on whether you consider the Fed part of the Deep State.  And the second-level dependency:  What does the Deep State want done with Donald Trump?

The most graceful answer would be a surprise 1/2 percent rate hike tomorrow.  That would scare the hell out of the market and would cause an overnight change in the hyperbubble.  It would burst (right on our timeline).

It would take the “Trump Bump” narrative away from the hapless (or is that witless) GOP’ers in the fall congressional campaign.  Even better:  It would show the public who’s really in charge.  (The people with the control of money, silly.)

Or, it could go the other way:  A surprise hold – maybe even a drop of rates.  “OMG they see it’s too sucky and economy to raise now…they must know something…” And down it would come.

My deflationist pal has been expecting bonds to rally one more time (inferring a rate drop) because we have not-yet wrung malinvestment out of the financial system to any appreciable extent.  Like the nanny-state operates the “continuous do-overs” in schools, the perps of financial holdups at the mega level all get rich and the public pays.

Part of the deflation argument is buoyed because a) raising rates will make the accumulated Federal Debt – already over 100% of GDP – even more unsupportable.  Plus, for many companies with rising share prices, the Quality of Earnings has been declining.

QoE doesn’t get much respect:  It’s worth a moment of your attention.

Ask yourself this “Which stock has more value?”  One that has bolstered its share price by buying-back its own shares or one that has a runaway smash-hit new product that people are lining up to buy?

Those Apple line days are long gone…which gets us to looking seriously at how much of stock prices is driven now by clever accountancy and how much by genuine value?

As We’ve Been Saying: Social Sucks

We have long held that social media has been based on a “crooked business model” from the get-go.  Before there was social media, websites (like this one) and companies (perhaps like yours) actually had their own user and discussion groups.

Then along came Facebook (along with other social platforms) and companies were hyped into moving their customer base onto Facebook – free, of course – in order to “keep up with the times.”  Sites like Urban, we encouraged to go social.

Not long after the period of freebies, and by memory after the IPO, Facebook began to demand ransom.  It used to be Ure audience, but now you have to pay us to talk to ’em.

That’s when UrbanSurvival lost interest in social media.  We offered some of our remarks there, but when the ransom demands started,  Our posts were no longer delivered to all of our followers.  Only a small fraction.

We were sold this:  We could always buy post boosting…and all that takes is….uh….money, for example.

At the time I wrote this process up on Peoplenomics, we labeled it a time-circular business model.  Offer the free stuff long enough (a few years) to get Corporate America hooked on the digital crack that social has become.  And once the “peeps” are conditioned to salivated all their personal details, then it’s time hold up publishers of content for revenue.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s a stunningly profitable business-shuffle:  You give something away FREE, and then demand the big money down the road.  Facebook had only to provide an ego-appealing framework (servers and load-balancing) and all their content was obtained basically for FREE.  And the Audience was told “See us on Facebook….”

Had Facebook revealed its plans to charge for access to a company’s own clients – of a website’s readers in advance, would anyone in their right mind have done it?

Morality and forthrightness aside, all that FREE content is now being monetized because the American people are attention-deficit suckers.  And oh, yeah, who owns copyright on contributed material?  No one seems to read “terms of service” except lawyers.

When we evolved this skeptical view, it was December 18, 2013.  Our Peoplenomics report that date was “As we look ahead, we’re troubled by the increasing number of “time-circular” business plans emergent in social media.”  We predicted social would run into trouble.

Early?  Well, uh, yeah…

But, like much of what we do, we’d rather be more than four years early than had owned a pile of FB shares that lost 6-3/4% in Monday’s trading and may lose more today.

We’re still here, still hosting our own reader comments.  And we expect in time, corporate America will WTFU and see social for the scam  it is.

Diogenes wouldn’t get many “likes” either. People who do “right” are seldom popular when the herd is “under the influence.”

So, forget I said anything and  go read about the Gush Over First Close-Ups Of Kanye West & Kim Kardashian’s Daughter Chicago West.

(Did they name the child after an office building, or what?)

Sick in Austin:

Another bomb has gone off, this time at a FedEx facility as the Austin Bomber case continues chasing down leads.

As an armchair detective, I would look at who Austin-area subscribers to Smithsonian Magazine were.  Why?  Well, they did a story last year “The 1927 Bombing That Remains America’s Deadliest School Massacre.”

Other ideas suggested by history rhyming?

The Bombing of Naco[1][2] was an international incident which occurred in the border town of Naco, Arizona, during the 1929 Escobar Rebellion.”  So is Austin a S.A. gang war in play?

Another bomb/school link historically:

The Bath School disaster, sometimes known as the Bath School massacre, was a series of violent attacks perpetrated by Andrew Kehoe on May 18, 1927, in Bath Township, Michigan, which killed 38 elementary schoolchildren and six adults and injured at least 58 other people.[Note 1] Kehoe killed his wife and firebombed his farm, then detonated an explosion in the Bath Consolidated School before committing suicide by detonating a final device in his truck.”

And if you live in Florida, try on “Mysterious Bombing at Bank of Oviedo
The village of Oviedo was rocked by a 1929 attack perpetrated by apparent burglars… or was there another motive?”

It will be interesting when the perp is found which of the historical markers, if any, repeat.

Off to work on Peoplenomics.  Futures are back to flat and oil’s up a whole buck while cocoa futures are up one percent…lattes booming?

32 thoughts on “QFRV: Quest For Real Value”

  1. The first guest on Coast last night was a doozy. She is promoting public banking operated like utilities and the death of private banks and Wall Street. She said there is another state workiing on setting up their own bank.

    Somewhat related to social, I have been concerned about online security and decided to never use my Android phone or Fire tablet for financial transactions including checking by credit union accounts. All things considered, I am reading up on using a VPN and may go that direction so that I could use them both for just that when out and about.

    • We will know that reality has set in when states open state banks like North Dakota and require state government at all levels to deposit all funds in the state bank. A few years back someone intelligent pointed out that if California opened a state bank, the revenue would pay the entire interest on the state debt every year. Instead, that revenue goes to the big banks like BofA and Wells Fargo, plus any fees that they pay.

      When this does not happen, just know that you are still ruled by corrupt interests. Like Texas saying they are going to open a state gold repository to hold the gold of its citizens and the $800 million in the university of Texas trust. The law was passed 5 years ago, still no repository. BTW, the gold sits in the FRB of New York, if it still exists.

  2. The “autonomous drilling” you linked to, Varco’s Iron Roughneck, is well over 30 years old – used mainly on offshore rigs due to the high cost of the tech and that it is slower than humans. This is and has been pitched as “safer” by NOV and others for a long time – the same way they pitch cameras all over the rig today as well. More complexity is always slowing things down, and pitched in the name of “safety” while the training remains about the same for most jobs.

    It’s like your car – instead of teaching safety and rewarding it, companies opt for making things “safer” than a human. In each case, decisions are hard wired, inflexible and only apply to “normal situations”. That’s great, but humans will always have abnormal events and many live and work in “abnormal” situations.

    There have been “automatic drillers” for well over 40 years used across the oil patch. As you would expect, they get better every year, and in some cases, can out-drill a human driller. There is much more that a driller does besides drill, and drilling is not like driving a car, much as the geeks want it to be.

    (NOTE: I worked for NOV decades ago, actually troubleshooting their automated drilling console)

    This was a “stock pump” video, plain and simple. Sadly, it probably worked for lots of investors who saw something robotic and thoughts, “BIG $’s”…

    • Note David’s comment RE: autonomous drilling

      ADDING people for maintenance of these robots; adding people or service calls for all the sensors “big data” needs; adding people to parse this “big data” for MBA’s who don’t have a clue – this list is growing.

      Hypercomplexity has crept into the drilling business, and “big data” is not going to make decisions that benefit anything except more “big data”. I am dead in the middle of this, and the issue is the people in mgmt think they can control things on a rig somewhere remotely. Hard to envision that working well, when many of them only know what happens empirically at the rig.

      I would advise that in cases where life, death, dismemberment and environmental disaster are inherent – remember Deepwater Horizon. A bunch of managers with no skin (very literal) in the game on a rig is not a good thing.

      I view it as similar to military droning – where the only repercussion is the pilots conscience, which command could give a damn about. It will not be good for safety or efficiency – and the claims of efficiency are slim at best. The adding of people to support these new things is not decreasing cost or risk.

      The main reason that shale drilling is a lot safer is that the pressures we encounter in shale oil wells are nothing like what we see in deepwater. These wells are shallow, but long horizontally, and most of them have minimal pressure, softer rock and we are drilling it at a very advantageous angle for the drill bits.

  3. George,

    Just wanted to comment on “autonomous drilling” This technology has been in place for over 25 years in the offshore industry and at least the last 15 years in the onshore industry. We have actually added personnel on the rigs with the new technology. The new business model in our industry is being efficient and safety minded. We can now drill 19,000 MD wells in certain parts of the Rocky Mountains in less than 3 days. Efficiencies through technology is driving the oil and gas sector. The reason why we are now the “swing producer” in the world and not OPEC. We produce over 10 million barrels of oil a day and export over 1 million barrels a day. Surface (rig) technology has finally caught up with down hole technology.
    Best,

  4. The new format for Google Finance is awful. Does anyone know of a good site to use to replace Google Finance?

  5. I try to follow what zuky does.
    #He was photographed years ago with black tape over the camera and microphone of his lap top. That tells me even a pro geek can’t keep snoops and hacks out so here I sit with no eyes and ears on my devices.
    #Get rich early in life. I screwed that one. I’ll try to catch up.
    #Don’t move when the $millions roll in, buy the neighbors and make them move.
    #Sell your stock before the shtf and leave everyone else holding the bag.

    Maybe his shoes are too big to fill.

  6. George – where are we 1928 or 1929?? I have not been able to ascertain this from your recent postings.

    • Trump has to put a tariff on foreign oil.

      Poor U.S. frackers can’t compete when the others are dumping.

    • Easter is coming up.. if you ever noticed just before a holiday the price is hiked way up.. you feel the pinch. Bitch and moan about how damned high it is and how it’s affecting your money flow.. then as if a miracle the price eases.. just before.. but the easing stays a little higher than the initial hike. The theory is.. you feel the pain.. then the relief of the drop giving you a feeling of relief and well being so much that your willing to make those long trips.. the oil industry essentially raised prices and will make hundreds of millions of dollars and have everyone feeling appreciative that they raised the prices.
      It’s the same thing with crappy news.. you’ll hear it on a end week day.. so by the start of the new work week it will be old news and fewer complaints.

  7. Forget autonomous hardware (robots). What about autonomous computing? Generative Design is going to enable designers to harness the computing power of thousands of computers, hell it already is. Millions of design variations can be explored in minutes. Think of the millions of engineers and designers that will never get to lift a finger to do all that same work (millions of people that don’t yet exist).

    Or… think of the existing number of engineers and designers being more productive and innovative to exponential proportions. This is the current state of affairs.

    Which scenario ends up with more people doing productive things? It all depends on your mindset. If you think life is zero sum, then you wring your hands that all those folks are being computed out of a job. If you see a growing pie, you clap your hands with glee because people are finding better solutions faster, with “AI”.

    One need only be thirsty to see the half full cup.

  8. How to be successful in real estate for the time being we can put it in a 1-2-3 category three category would be the high end you can collect as much as you want but when the economy goes down looking to fall down into the two category and the one category is the slums two categories for people fall from when they’re on the higher end of the scale two works very good and one is a good backup because most of the time is guaranteed by the government.

    If you own property and it’s not regulated by the government number two properties where you have a person that’s renting the property and it may have more than one bedroom or not and then when the third category starts falling down what happens is the number two category darts putting extra people in their Apartments in my case it’s okay I understand that there’s no set rules that you can’t put extra people in your place because no specific rules.
    If we get to the point we’re like China and we need 10 people to live in one room then we’ll be like China if we have to compete the China That’s How it’ll have to be.

    If you don’t have millions of dollars then you can’t do top end but what most people that are in the million-dollar Industries don’t want to do is do the bottom end and that’s where the good get you started programs that work in the very profitable because the government backed.

    So the secret to success in real estate is buying low Bi-Lo again but a little bit higher and hardly ever get into the high-dollar stuff so let’s use that with Bitcoin or Litecoin is I’m doing I’ve been buying it at $50 a week and it’s starting to go up so if the trend starts to go up.
    Then I’m going to buy it at $500 a week and then it when it really looks positive that’s when you put 5000 or more a week into it because it hasn’t reached its peak when it’s reached its peak you’ll know by the volume

    • And when it’s reached its peak if you’re able to notice by the volume you start selling and then if the system still wants to go back up again you start out loud 5500 5000 to see whether it’s going to peek again if it doesn’t didn’t lose too much only lost 50 if it takes a sudden dive and keeps diving that’s the thesis of buying on the dip and buying on the rise

      • Why not rename Urban Survival, ‘Bryce’s Lazy Porch Garden’

        Your usual daily posting of 2500 words of meaningless and unintelligible drivel could draw a whole new audience. Your unsatiable need to be noticed indicates major insecurity, you could draw other readers on the same wavelength.

      • I would not feel offended if George cut me short ,because I agree with you,

  9. Throughout history throughout all history all rules you psychics remote viewers if you want to call them that or anyting that has to do with people being able to look into the future that’s what they’ve used that use the psychics definitely and indefinitely so how do they go down how does every society go down well the psychic tell them that’s going to go down and they don’t believe them for some reason

  10. The safest way to do the stock market or the Bitcoin Litecoin thing is to do what George does when he goes to the casino he says this is what I’m going to do and this is where I’m going to get out at hey George is one smart cookie married to a good looking cookie too I rest my case

  11. My youngest daughter called a couple days ago said Dad I’ve got news I said okay she said I’m pregnant and she was born in 1990 so and she owns her own house debt free and Vehicles debt free and I said good.

    And a few weeks before that my elderest daughter called and said Dad I’ve been promoted to McLean Virginia and I guess we all know what that means but I said good as long as you’re on the right side.

    And then I my brother who works for a welding company which does Amazon conveyors said they’re starting to downsize and then last year they were going like we’re upsizing so there’s a change of shift.
    And then my other brother’s a tile Setter he’s saying man things are going crazy we have so much work we don’t know what to do.
    And then I have a younger brother even further .
    I’m still waiting for him to call me dumb what would tell me what he’s doing I mean he’s one of those secret people he doesn’t tell people what he’s doing.

    Then I have a rich cattle ranch sister out there in Texas and we just don’t communicate you know something going on there I mean I did send her the give her a free DVD of how to cure the cancer that she had but still haven’t heard any word back from that.

    And that my other sister lives out there in Colorado they’re doing pretty good I guess they got lots of Acres chickens horses dogs they raised Collies Shepherds and they resell them some people may think that’s unkind but anyway the world keeps going on no matter what we do my mother died a couple years . But anyway my sister’s husband is in the medical field so they’re doing pretty good.

    So I’m the only idiot retard stupid person never got out of the 9th grade who knows how to do real estate wow who would have figured that.
    But now my thing isn’t it a real estate is 4 into the before finder finding out what happens before it happens as George knows for my website which I don’t use don’t update don’t care but I’m about before finding things and I know I’m not that psychic but there’s so many more people out there that are supremely at the top of the list of being psychic and I learned from them and that’s what it’s all about we have to learn from somebody somewhere on this planet and sometimes they’re dark Forces and sometimes they’re like to be very careful where you go and what your intentions are George that’s what matters most

  12. I haven’t done any research on this lately but the past was we had people coming from our time traveling future projects that told us they didn’t know anything about some of the things that we have done is because now as we’re presently going through Google Facebook Twitter and all the other stuff has erased through like Wikipedia has erased all the true facts so that the future doesn’t know what those facts are or had been or shall have been or will he shall have been so the people in the future are ignorant of their past so they live in a blitz world and they have no idea you know what the past was now that’s a certain time line that doesn’t mean that this timeline will be the same as you know everything changes so the people in the future are ignorant of their past so they live in a bless world may have no idea you know what the past was now thats a certain time line that doesn’t mean that this time line will be the same as you know everything changes

  13. Imagine George wearing a trilby ,drunk and swill.
    Given his interpretations of the world.
    Owning his own Tavern for travelers and other guests are accommodated with lodging food and drink.
    And the lesbian walks in.

    And George using his mechanical powers

    Guides her to a Southwest booth

    That is drawn tight to a corner.

    And the pain finding and recognizing the place she should be she starts her journalism in comfort.

    But as she starts writing there’s a sourness in the room.

    There is a jettison of mugs and goods.

    To remove the gut ideas.

    To hear more pay $500 / publication ha

    • Don’t be deceived this is a rich man’s paralytic condition
      Occasionally there’s a trade in tourism’s byThor and theorems.

      But George is one of his better ass sets in endeavouring into the mechanical physical world of air fire and water.

      Is toreutics.

      Watch George when he can’t sleep he’ll go into his metalforming room to play with the stalagmites

      This is an area where George thrives in this market efficiency with the great in it in the initiativ.

      Okay George what we want to know is how do you build a Japanese Tori II.

  14. We’ve become a society of scurrilous Gladys Kravitz type gossips. It amazes me the depth of personal information everyday people will ask others to answer, as though they fancy themselves a member of the mainstream media, then use those replies to virtue signal by destroying another persons reputation. Is this what it was like in the years behind the iron curtain, only on steroids? Neighbor betraying neighbor? Friend betraying friend? I hope it doesn’t become family betraying family.

    Social media and the 24-7-365 news outlets are mankinds latest worst creations.

  15. “three-fingered aliens? Maybe”

    Although my curiosity as to whether or not there are three fingered aliens has been satisfied years ago. There has always been one question. Why not disclose what they know stop the controversy.
    Kind of like Trump and a certain film actress.. just say sure we were friends and I didn’t want to upset my personal life because of my personal weaknesses. She needed a few bucks(he is a billionaire so that essentially was lunch money) and leave it at that.
    The story and drama done over with.. sort of like the kid that got into the cookie jar..
    Back to the alien theory.. one big question…
    How were we able to make huge leaps in technology so fast. Were they helping? What was the trade off.?
    What. Is it they are afraid everyone will know?
    Then you look back through the history as we know it.
    What is the most disgusting action done throughout ancient history for “the gods” ?
    And wonder could that be the reason.
    We read about the watchers, the teachers,then we read about the snake men and ant men..
    I will leave it there let your curiosity have you look up the history of the temples..

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