Projecting Difficult Markets

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Unlike a Casino, you alone decide when to take your bets off when trading stocks. Which is why, when markets run against you, looking at  stocks as an analog to “gambling” is the most rational course..

This is a topic of great interest here because it has been a brutal week for bears.  This morning our “Focus” and the “ChartPack” are presented together as we tackle the problem of trading rules and self-discipline in market reversals.

After a few headlines and coffee first.

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25 thoughts on “Projecting Difficult Markets”

  1. Whether you are old or young, compare your long term profits to short-term trading profits. Long term will win every time for the old or young individual investor.

    The market has shown, if you mention trade wars positively, the market goes up big, negative, the opposite. If you are short over the weekend it is the same as playing a long term short (losses usually follow if you stay with a losing hand).

    Rules were made to follow.

  2. Yo Big Daddy –

    Nothing makes crash feel better than being Net SHORT on Fridays during the month of October.
    Since I dont have “machine” speed in my trading toolbox, hedging is necessary on Fridays going into the weekend.
    In addition to this strategy is the extreme of amount political noise clamoring for attention – all the while knowing the “Red October Storm” has arrived.
    The first bands of the storm have been coming ashore all week and few have noticed – great have the distractions been..wars-rumors of wars..

    Hell nobody seems to notice how Valuable Bitcoin has become to Peoples under duress – ala Hong Kong where UN-Confiscatable Money/Asset is key to A&T (alive&thrive).

    Wonder if the Lefties in Cali will notice the Super Chargers for their EV’s dont work when the power is blacked out..for a week – guess they will have to eat even more babies to keep the world from being destroyed.

    On the bright side of life here in Murica – at least we can keep Printing US Treasury Bonds – Sell them to Ourselves – and hand all that Money over to Your Masters – the evil Bankers..AGAIN

    BOHICA Baby!

    • Bitcoin is the Ellie access to funds when the usd collapses, banks close, etc etc.

      Created for that purpose I would guess.

      Ure thoughts George?

  3. I absolutely thought your column this morning was spot on. Thanks for making Peoplenomics the best knowledge value in America.

    Another note. What’s with Trump picking a fight with Steve Kerr, head coach of the Warriors? When does it matter what we think about the political opinion of a sports coach? Kerr deferred on a question about the NBA and China and he gets blasted by Trump…not once but twice…the latest last night. And Kerr never really did anything to deserve this tirade. I am a huge Warriors fan and the Warriors success is in big part due to the leadership and mind of Steve Kerr. One of the classiest and most reasonable coaches of all time. Has Trump gone off the deep end? He now attacks everything and everyone. That’s a sign of someone who is guilty and being backed into a corner. In nature, an animal is at its fiercest and loudest when trapped.

    • Mark, you bark and holler anti-Trump everyday
      Mark says, ” In nature, an animal is at its fiercest and loudest when trapped.”
      He is going to be re-elected by a Huuuuuge landslide, are you prepared
      I keep seeing home flying US flags on a daily basis , flags that were not there in the past
      they are Trump supporters,,,,and criminals should avoid homes with US flags, as they believe in the 2nd amendment

    • Kerr and Popovich are NeverTrumpers. They’ve been all up in his sh** since he was “candidate Trump.” D’you (or anyone else) honestly think Da Prez is not going to take shots at them whenever they give him an invitation?

      That said, if you want an actual answer to your question, go here:

      NBA’s $4 billion nightmare: How one tweet sparked a controversy spanning two global superpowers

      https://www.news.com.au/sport/basketball/nbas-4-billion-nightmare-how-one-tweet-sparked-a-controversy-spanning-two-global-superpowers/news-story/445933917f59540ef861819d0e8ac3d9

      Cliff’s Notes version: Which is more important to corporate greedsters, money, or “doing the right thing?”

    • @ mark

      when steve kerr and his team disrespected the OFFICE of the President of the UNITED STAES..(us citizens and nba fans)……and REFUSED to accept congrats…..HE is now being repaid for his error….and it does not surprise me that you agree with him….by the way when the warriors wound and then went to Obamas wh…and accepted the congrats…I for one would lable the team and owner..RACIST….visit obama refuse to visit Trump..Black and white to me…and I am not color blind…..

      • Steve Kerr has integrity. Who would want to go meet Donald Baffoon Trump? It’s a lose lose situation for Kerr and the Warriors. When you have a majority of Americans that think he is the dumbest, most polarizing man in the universe , why cross that bridge to shake his tiny hand? I applaude the Warriors principals and stand up values! Good for them. It’s gestures like this that make American the greatest country on earth!!!

        Trump, the other hand doesn’t want us to have opinions that don’t match his own and will wildly tweet to crush those that don’t kiss his fat “arse”. that’s fascism.

      • OK,,, but to Quote Mark “…Hahaha. Never Trumpets unite!”
        That is where you are to late and WRONG, unless you can go back in time, to 2016! You can not say never, when it has already happened. It is impossible to reason with those who refuse to accept reality . Trump WON and will, again

        Trump, tweets [look at China and Biden] and all of a sudden China starts to weaken on trade. And the way Trump has started to unload on people during his rallies,, indicates-the gloves are coming off,,time for punishment, Oct 18th should prove interesting

      • It’s really amazing how each and every Trump supporter says the same talking points heard on Fox and propagandists like Limbaugh. It’s as if they don’t have a mind of their own. Well I have a mind and a great life. I tell it as I see it and still have never met a person in the intellectually rich Bay Area and other parts of the west coast (50 million plus population, incredibly strong economic power houses) that thinks differently than I do.

        When I watch Fox News, I swear that state media types have their scripts written by Comedy Central. What they say is so bizarro idiotic, it’s actually funny in a sad sort of way. And then I see the same talking points come out of aptly named other brother Darrell and Mickey d. Hmmmm

  4. Looks like we had a respectable cat bounce on Friday. There is nothing difficult about this market, as long as you stay on the sidelines.
    Market analysis which attributes market moves to news stories is usually wrong. When the markets really do start reacting aggressively to news stories, then it’s time to consider going to the sideline. In 1987, there was a lot of trading on news going on. I’m starting to think that the trade talk news may really be moving markets. That’s a big caution flag. Markets that are moving hundreds of points based on vague political propaganda statements by players whose credentials are sketchy do not inspire confidence, even if the trend is up for the moment.

  5. Three reading suggestions that maybe of interest to your readers:
    1. The Disappearance of the Universe by Gary Renard – the metaphysics behind time and space
    2. Any of the books by Anthony William – woo woo medicine to keep you out of the nursing home
    3. Square foot Gardening (book) – maximum food, minimum work

    • No. 2 was just what I need ;-). Thank you for the hint! Starting Monday I’ll be juicing regardless of where the stock markets are going to head.

      P.s. Except for the Russell 2000, none of the other major indices are below their 200 DMAs. Beware!

    • Anyplace LDS. The Mormons are the experts in the field. You’re going to pay a high premium — Think of it as “food as an insurance policy.”

      Just make sure it is the food LDS sells to its membership and the Military. “Emergency Essentials” cans that’ve been setting on a shelf for 6 months are excellent — those that’ve been setting on that shelf for 6 years, not so much…

    • What are your objectives? Length of time? Type of food? Do you have a cool place to store it?
      If you go the Mountain House route, watch for sales, and pallet deals. Go with cans, not pouches or plastic containers for long term. With Costco selling storage foods, things have changed a lot. Shop around. Check Safecastle for pallet deals. Ready Reserve has a good reputation for dried storage foods. Maybe LOOB has some suggestions.

      • “If you go the Mountain House route, watch for sales, and pallet deals. ”

        https://harvestright.com/?gclid=CjwKCAjwlovtBRBrEiwAG3XJ-293hIn242mDv6UyrCxpBnnkFQsxBWf0Kw4HUHQJK5hY5e13MAg30BoCAhcQAvD_BwE

        I have a couple of them.. a few years ago I built one.
        The problem I had was I had to babysit it. The one I built using( C reative R egionally A vailable P arts ) I had around the house would build up ice crystals on the vacuum line which was a pain.

        By purchasing one of the home units the cost really wasn’t much more and no babysitter needed.

        I do half gallons of ice cream then blend it to a powder. Package it to reconstitute I use a hand crank ice cream maker. Raw steaks have to be lean. Onions you must use chopped not sliced..the reason..sliced you will take a bite..then before you realize it you’ll discover you’ve eaten twenty pounds worth of onions.
        Left overs ..you have what you enjoy eating.
        Hash browns just like steaks and other raw meats you place in a dish add water walk away. They usually take an overnight to rehydrate. Fast pre-cooked meals fast and easy .

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pAKeWTumS0g

        I would suggest installing the oil filter. It sure takes the question of moisture in the pump. I used one of my other pumps on the shelf rather than the new one.

        I dont know how much you all buy but mine paid for itself. Store in jars or bags I prefer jars..

    • https://www.beprepared.com

      That’s a good one..

      https://www.legacyfoodstorage.com/pages/best-value-food-storage?title=Best_Value_ Freeze Dried Food Supply&gclid=CjwKCAjwlovtBRBrEiwAG3XJ-yYN4uJ9rBtsVUIBA1xqCffkWS6KvGJrR0tPOdORWwapcqLFp1elCxoCuZkQAvD_BwE

      But if your serious about starting a food stock..
      If you view it as a whole.. the task will seen daunting and unachievable. Get that out of your thoughts right away and do what I call the one can preparation.
      As a home manager you know what yuh ou eat. Take a look at the last months shopping lists. You will see a pattern. Most working families dont consider day meals. Since the latte and doughnut doesnt count.. anyway if the average monthly purchase is six cans of this or that then buy seven..but pick up after the normal six can usage. You’ll soon find you have a months backup then three months in no time at all and only change your monthly shopping by a few dollars..rather than be faced with a huge expense at one time.

      https://harvestright.com

      Now consider this..the average household will throw out 2500.00 worth of leftovers a year. Theres not enough for a home meal out it goes but if you freeze dry you pay the costs of the freeze dryer in one year.

      Take it slow dont go hog nuts wild and try and do it all at once. Do your prep one can at a time. Unless of course you have a little extra and something is on sale.
      Rotate your stock.

      I started years ago.. I almost starved to death and put my family in jeopardy. I’ve always had a can or two extra since. Learn how to do many things. Make cheese,do retort canning ( mre) make your own everything cooking oil fuels etc. Knoweledge goes a long way..
      Crack a book and learn a new hobby then do it.
      A few years ago we went a year withought an income. It sucked except for fresh eggs and store bought bread we did ok. You need at least two years of monthly expenses.
      That will be the hardest to come up with.
      Bit coins are a joke in my opinion. But then who knows..

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