Inflation In Check?
It may seem that way. Consumer Prices held even this week, but there may only be a modest break before real “stagflation” sets in. Either that – or the deflationary depression shows up when we figure “Help, we’ve fallen and we can’t get up…”
The future will be defined by how we (might say in billiards) bounce off those rails.
J. Powell was expressing concern about Job Creation this week and the main point of his remarks echoes, even now: When a lot of businesses try to come back, people will not be (and this is key) coming back to the same Economy.
Moving pieces all over the board, not the least of which is the Reality Gap.
You can see it in the Fed’s own H.6 Money stocks report this week:
As bad as 50% more M1 sloshing around will eventually be on the inflation side, we ain’t there yet.
There’s no economic Law that says you can just “Out-Print” a Depression. But don’t tell the Fed – they’re trying it and we’re keeping notes.
Oh, and it’s really a lot worse than the H.6 says, since when you run the NOT seasonally adjusted numbers, reality is 10% uglier, but that’s just running it in my head. (Class assignment? 60% annualized?)
With the flat CPI this week, this morning’s next data point is trhe Producer Price index – just out:
“The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.3 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.4 percent in September and 0.3 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the largest advance since moving up 1.1 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
In October, nearly 60 percent of the rise in the final demand index can be traced to a 0.5-percent increase in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.
Other than some expectations data, could be a quiet day for traders, except for Left Field events. How much of a sell-off comes ahead of the weekend (if any) may tip us as to next week.
Empire State Manufacturing data Monday won’t be reason to speed to the trading platform, but Tuesday’s when Retail Sales come in and that one will be worth keeping an eye on.
So What’s News?
Honestly, not much today.
Joe Biden is still projected (by the media) to win Arizona. But, unless GR(T)rumpy can pull off a decisive election fraud victory in Pennsylvania, we’re not seeing how anything changes. For now, Donald Trump is stewing.
<Mainly, the world is nuts…>
Proof of the assertion comes in a report about how two bears were shot after somehow ending up on a Russian submarine. (Begs the question are we spending too much money on Defense is they’re having these issues?)
Then there’s the daredevil teenager who was hanging (no net) 200 meters up in the sky over a construction site – nude – down in Australian. Frequent commenter Len down-under has been telling us insanity is going around there, too, but yeah – this cinches his case.
As we have said (seems like forever) Insanity is contagious and spread by social media.
Speaking of the Online Uprising…
Did you see where the WHO drops censorship of words ‘Taiwan’ and ‘China’ on social media after backlash?
Elsewhere along the digital batle front, Commandante Ure points to “How social media company Parler may be able to compete with Twitter” and says the Commandante “Guerilla action is everywhere. Except on Russian subs…”
But digital warfare is the name-of-the-game these days. And to prove it, Amazon filed a lawsuit against 2 influencers accusing them of knowingly hawking counterfeit products on their social media accounts.
How About the Weather, Then?
There are two macro stories to be concerned with: Eta and a “next storm” are worthy of comment.
Eta is just off the coast of North Carolina (which we all know is really South Virginia – a known fact because it was called that on Social). 40 knot winds, rain and blowing out to sea.
Meanwhile in the southern Caribbean another tropical storm is trying to pull itself together:
“Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea have increased and become
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves slowly westward. Additional development of the
system is likely over the weekend, and interests in Honduras and
Nicaragua should closely monitor the progress of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.”
Unless it turns north, in which case up into the Gulf. Zeke the Cat has been trying to interest us in the office pool on this one eventually whacking Nawlins again. We’ve told the schizophrenic (Zeus, Zeke, Zippo) to take a hike.
How Dry We Am
Being Friday, we can get to fixin that this afternoon when the market closes. But the National Drought Picture shows the Climate BBQ just keeps getting larger:
Seems to us people who have invested in deep wells and water distribution in these areas in colors have a bright financial future. So long as it doesn’t include the eating option.
Out West: Magnitude 5.5 earthquake strikes western Nevada. Not recount-connected, though.
WHAT??? You want a more “serious ‘tude on the 13th on a Fried-day?”
OK, for you:
Limiting Indoor Capacity Can Reduce Coronavirus Infections, Study Shows. Which anyone with half a brain could figure, but….now we can put numbers to it.
Seeds of change…or the best news on consumer prices in years (we can’t be sure, but…): Wholesale marijuana, hemp oil prices fall nationwide amid growing supply of raw material.
And Ure will be making a supply run this morning. Since CNBC tells us Grocery shoppers trade up from dried beans and rice to premium foods as Covid cases rise.
Our grocery cart will include four gallons of jug wine, back in stock.
And yes, a little Butterball since November of this year features three (count ’em) turkeys.
Oh, and speaking of Turkeys and smoke (as we were): Sorry to report that Greenberg’s Smoked Turkeys up in Tyler, Texas won’t meet all the demand this year due to an explosion that wrecked the plant this week. They WILL be back in operation, says the owner next year, however.
- Peoplenomics: George’s swing trading discussion on Peoplenomics.
- Sunday Urban column on enclosing additional space with lean-tos.
- On Ultra-Make This weekend: What’s your “filament mileage?”
On that note, “A fiery cat with the speed of thought, a cloud of dust and a hearty “Time to put Feed Bag….”
Write when you get rich,