Parimutuel Collapse Training

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Old Man Ure needs to blow out super-early today.  Car tabs come up so I need to make a run into town for the annual inspection (“yes, it’s a car”) and visit to the auto tabbery at the Courtly house in order to keep up the driveryly legalities.  Twice a year the old Dog pickup and old Leximobile interfere with my otherwise unregulated life in this heinous manner…

Ergo, momentary clarity with a lack of verbosity…

Handicapping the Future

We propose today that you consider the high art of Horse Racing instead of looking at the oh-so-RED futures.  As we teach in Statistic 085, one way to “see the Future” is to assume the past drives the future.

You can see it in the (pig) of an Elliott Wave scrawl of the past year’s market collapse in slow motion:  See the trend lines?

If you’ve been reading UrbanSurvival very long, you know we have been telling you “If the Red line (fast approaching now) can’t hold, then the gates of Financial Hell open and the World goes in.

Now let’s look at this as a parimutuel betting problem.

First, what is a parimutuel and does it bite or eat cat food?

It’s a form of betting where “…a form of betting in which those backing the first three places divide the loser’s stakes (less the operator’s commission).”

Despite LIES ground into our heads by the (misnamed) “education” system (more indoctrination than anything else) is the whole idea of “Saving for the Future.”

The three main horses in the Everyman programming, are a) invest in a home, b) invest in a partner, and c) play with gentle swindlers.

Gentle Swindlers

Which puts you at the starting gate for Friday.  You look around and start counting the Gentle Swindlers who are trying to get your money, attention, and vote.

  • Overly hyped, overly dramatic, useless headlines.
  • Stock markets that promise fast money “We can play the short side!”
  • The price of a new vehicle has left the planet and in a small town, you can buy rentals for less than a decked out new super-trimmed 6-thousand horsepower diesel pickup.  (Ads will assure you subliminally of a better sex life if you buy one, though Andy’s approach – hold a union Teamster card) actually makes sense compared to the Gentle Swindle of Brand New.  Which is your chance to play Eat the Depreciation- Home Edition, but I digress…)

Problem@Betting Window

The same tools, taught to me by a nationally raced pony cruncher apply to “reading the news.”  Once you know how to handicap the nags, Handicapping the Future becomes quite simple.

Except in place of Ponies, we have Events.  In place of Jockeys, we have “personalities and (so-called) Leaders.”  But, just like in horse racing, the little voice in your head should be screaming “They’re OFF!~” every time you look up.

The Tip Sheet

Apparently, the British monarchy didn’t pass on brains: British pound plunges below $1.11 after new economic reforms (cnbc.com).

My consigliere provides us daily tip sheets about where he sees the off-track events blowing in on the horse race from.  Today the off-track (off headline) action in Europe.  Where a BIG Banking player is RUMORED to be in trouble:

“Not just Credit Suisse – looks like a HUGE credit crunch there since by reports today they appear to be upside down on their EUROPEAN Capital Requirements by at least $4 billion (US) (which are only about 20% of what they require in the US).

AND …

“Deutsche Bank has been firing people left and right in their trading area all week

Something is up in Europe wrt it’s Banking system … and it does NOT smell good.  One of the biggies about to Bite the Dust? (and remember Andy’s post from today or yesterday?)”

fwiw:  when a European Bank gets in trouble the US banks STOP clearing everything that has that bank’s name on it … so the US system self fire-walls itself (by the US banks themselves doing it) so I wouldn’t anticipate it taking down a US Bank … though some hedge funds and investment firms might be killed, ala LTCM in 1991 with the Russian credit collapse.”

Like any other half-assed handicapper, Ure then goes scouting out headlines and finds, among others:

Nothing seen – at least in these – of a direct blow-down of European banking, BUT we know Ukraine is costing dearly and tensions are on the rise.  And how stupid are the Brits, for God’s sake?

On the headline beat, however the Big Story shows up on ZeroHedge where a report Goldman Throws In The Towell: Slashes S&P Price Target To 3,600… Warns Of Recession Crash To 3,150 | ZeroHedge makes us think someone besides us is moving toward the Half Off by Christmas Scenario.

That’s wildly more optimistic than our outlook which is for the S&P down 25% down from here (and maybe more) before the Turkey flies.  Which, based on early futures would target the S&P 2,800 (and lower before year end) with a down of 22,300 (and lower) while the NASDAQ composite should sink to 8,213 before Turkey Day.

None of which is a recommendation or financial advice; we just throw it off as “entertainment” while pondering the relationship between horse handicapping and the glue factory, kind of thing.

Dead Ringers

We’d bet you didn’t know that the term “dead ringer” comes from horse racing, when cheating owners would switch out horses and showcase it under a false name (pedigree) to defraud good handicappers and bookies.

A spin off this is how election fraud works, lol.  Meantime, though, back at Handicapper Hollow:

  • By 6:30 AM, Dow futures were down 400 points, and all eyes will be on Jerome Powell’s speech this afternoon.  This is one we would not be short going into because by then the market could be down even more so he may need to apply a little happy talk.  Gotta wonder what the phrase will be.  Whatever, it will have to remain possible for another week or two before we get into actual crash country.
  • Handicapping Axiom of the Day:  Markets never crash from TOPS – they crash from BOTTOMS.  Look to Europe for the collapse to begin, offers my consigliere who’s a kind of handicapper’s helper…

Sh*t Show by Deluxe

Don’t want to be late for the exhaust sniffing and light-checks, so savor some of these while I go break speed limits:

OK, taking the rest of the week off to go stand in lines and renew the car tabs.  Do I know how to have a good time?  AK-Elaine and Zeus the attack cat have the helm.

More on Peoplenomics® tomorrow…

TO REPEAT:  Eyes on Powell today for a possible rally spark.

Write when I you get rich,

George@Ure.net

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/
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42 thoughts on “Parimutuel Collapse Training”

  1. Joe Bastardi spoke at a Natural Gas event recently. He is one of the Chief Meteorologists for WeatherBell, a service you pay $660/year for. One of the Board Members of WeatherBell is James Woolsey ex-CIA director. You can put the pieces together from there, including who the founder is.

    Joe used to be the long-range forecaster for Accuweather from 1978-2011. He is one the most accurate long-range forecasters I have ever read or listened to. His forecasts are valuable when doing Natural Gas Futures and crops. Commodities. Food. Energy. What makes the world go round, not idiot politicians spewing lies about climate change of which they know nothing.

    Joe states that hurricanes happen, and they are politically exploited by climate change activists. And that the Climate Change agenda is being driven by hysteria, not facts. I have been writing about climate change on here for a long time…it isn’t individual human caused climate change, and carbon isn’t the real villain.

    Joe is stating we are going to have an active end to the hurricane season. And that we are going to have a very cold December. A lot of it is based upon oceanic water temperatures.

    Get ready for much higher prices for fuel after the election. Lyin’ Biden has sold us out to the Chinese. Literally! Hunter was trying to put a gas deal together with the Chinese in the Permian and other shale areas. Drilling including. Biden has milked our Strategic Petroleum Reserves to lower prices of gasoline before the elections.

    The Germans are in for one hell of a ride this winter. Deutsche Bank is broke. Also, the Germans send a lot of gas to other countries. Putin has cut off the gas and if something is not done quickly to stop this Ukraine situation and lift Russian sanctions, it will stay cut-off. Do not be surprised if you wake up one day soon and hear about a banking crisis that starts in Frankfurt and moves through Europe and on west to the United States and further to Asia.

    The fiat money/fractional reserve banking system is totally broken. The bankers are all in bed together, including Central Banks. One big domino falls, the others will follow. As I suggested a month ago, beware of the banks and their bail-ins of depositor’s money. Those bail-ins will only be a match in a hurricane when confronting their real problems. But it will take a lot of people down with businesses to follow.

    • Jury still out on cold winter here in NE/MidAtlantic regions.

      Squirrels have just started intensely focusing on dee Nutz, still looking fit and trim, could use a few pounds.

      The “woolybears” just starting their journeys to cacoonville, so have not seen any fat ones yet.
      The last Winter weather indicator we have here in Pennsyltucky is Bear grease – kept in mason jars stored in basement/rafters. Viscosity is key indicator for cold snowy forecast, next unofficial viscosity test date is All Hallows Eve – will know more around Halloween..bearly.

    • Don’t forget that Nord stream 2 is still not put into operation as the Germans are actively delaying approval (Under US pressure)

  3. Condolences for you having to waste your precious time standing in a stupid line to get screwed. But I have to ask. In Texas are you not able to renew those periodic tabs on line or by mail? I know I know, inspections are needed, SHTF and what if everything goes dark and the internet goes down and all that but……
    Inquiring minds want to know.

    • FWIW: Train went by me yesterday on the Norfolk/Southern, carrying an unusual number of loaded boxcars and 16 military, closed, vehicle transport cars — headed east…

    • I still maintain its part of the act. It must be his handlers pulling the strings because he’s inept. Part of the deflection. Keeps you guessing doesn’t it?

    • Looks like they are heading to the Middle East – Syria, at least initially (at least until the neocons can get something cooking with Iran):

      “Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve continues to work by, with and through regional partners to militarily defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, in order to enable whole-of-coalition governmental actions to increase regional stability.

      I STILL have real problems with sending National Guard troops out of the country to do work that SHOULD imo be done by Active Duty personel. If there are not enough Active Duty types then they should 100% rely upon the RESERVES for out of country deployments, NOT the National Guard.

      For the life of me I still can’t figure out why anybody with a REAL job would join the National Guard anymore since they are continually being activated for Year Long OVERSEAS Deployments which takes them away from their REAL jobs. Who can hold down a decent job and be leaving for an entire year every 3 to 4 years? Who WANTS to be leaving for a year long deployment every 3 to 4 years?

      (disclaimer: one son IS in the AF Reserves but when his unit was activated over the last few times (including Afghanistan and Iraq) they never left town, they always stayed local due to the specific work they do. He has told me multiple times if he was going to be sent overseas regularly, like some types of Reserve Units are in the various services when activated, he never would have signed up for his Reserve Unit)

    • You’re right.

      People encourage others to buy used autos all the time. Some encouragers think there is a law leasers have to get auto maintenance done.

      I’ve had girlfriends who leased new cars. Rarely did I see them get maintenance done. Nobody asks questions when the keys get turned in. I’ve been there.

      Right now driving around I’ve heard car brakes stopping at lights from other cars. Maintenance is being deferred. That’s why wee need “full coverage”.

      I’m not in the market but if I was I’d test drive a $TM Mira.

      2022 Mirai
      https://www.toyota.com/mirai/

      TOYOTA Fuel cell – How does it work?
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSxPkyZOU7E

      • The problem is REFUELING those darn things. Think it is a problem charging up an electric car? … read the blogs about trying to get the hydrogen tanks refilled, almost NO refueling stations exist even in Southern California which is where 90% of them are sold in the US. (why Toyota INCLUDES in your warranty FREE TOWING if you run out of fuel!!)

        I talked to a guy with a fuel cell Hyundai a couple of years ago (in LA) and he LOVED IT. Said he could only drive it local though due to the problems with refueling. If he planned it right he could go to San Diego with it … but he needed to call ahead since there was only ONE place to refuel south of LA and one needed to make sure they acually had fuel available since they didn’t always have it.

        “IF” they could get the refueling problem ironed out, ie: get LOTS of refueling stations built, I think they are a MUCH better option than battery only vehicle since per what he said they take less than 5 minutes to refuel.

    • I won’t say a word about her dogs, but she is a cutie herself! Probably the only reason I watched as much as I did. I can’t see taking any vehicle on such an abusive trail unless it’s construction equipment, and that would be to fix the trail itself. Renting anything is usually a lost cause unless it’s for a very specific, short term purpose, or it has a real profit from using it. In the case of renting the jeep, just rolling it or tearing out the undercarriage would likely be considered abuse, and would invalidate the CDW coverage. It’s the same thing with renting airplanes – you can’t do off-airport landings or other fun stuff, and are fully responsible for the thing.

  6. Im a racist !

    Im a racist !

    According to the state of california.

    Why ?

    I drive a diesel truck…

    ( You might want to ban my IP address George before the eco warriors hear that this site harbors and befriends racists )

    This shit-show is only going to get worse.

    • I’m trying to figure out the racist angle because (don’t look now) LOTS of Black people along with White drive diesels.
      Hmmm…
      Gruesome Derangement Syndrome as escaped the Internet and is going viral IRL.
      Oh shit…what next?

      • Shit for brains no understand neo ice age is coming – we need MOAR Diesel..turn and burn, or freeze to death.

        Green is total 100% bullsceisse! illusory made up crock of shit.

        Climate is Change- this is a satanic term = makes no sense/ is upside down and downright idiotic. A bad joke, but a joke none the less.
        Fuggin bug brains these wef entities – cowering as they are – in their black leather chaps, hiding behind steel&glass facade in Brussels. Hoping and praying global pop buys into their CBDC’s soonly – This is my desire as well – for I believe it will take less than six months from CBDC rollout, till hack attack destroys the whole central bank digital cesspool. Till that time, they be celebrating their global KILL numbers.. “Prost!” Shotz Grape Syzurp wit Champipple chasers.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b21kNh-Guyo

      • Diesels with turned up pumps and lagging turbos(or chips doing the same) can roll coal and blanket the leftys behind them in black smoke, so that’s racist(I suppose).

  7. Major phone/internet outage this morning between Dallas and Texarkana via Windstream. Banks and ATMs offline.

  8. “Everyone trying to get trump”? What was trump going to do with America’s most closely guarded secrets??? Hmmm, anyone? If a democrat did this I would literally bet my life that y’all would be calling for prison and execution.

    Judge Dearie is calling trump’s BS what it is, BS. Trump has a list of everything seized. Now it’s up to him to say what he didn’t have possession of, i.e. what the FBI planted. He also needs to explain what he allegedly declassified. Btw how would trump declassify what the FBI planted? It makes no sense that the FBI planted documents and trump also declassified them.

    Trump is bonkers. The other night on hannity trump tried to say that the FBI may have been looking for hillary’s emails. Bonkers! Totally. Bananas.

    You folks just don’t suspend disbelief. You rolled her in a carpet, tied her up and threw her off the bridge into a river. No amount of evidence will get trump supporters to accept what everyone in NYC has know for decades.

    • Trump may be bonkers, but Biden ought to be in adult daycare, not the Oval, either.
      Trump’s alleged misdeeds in NY as a developer are just the latest dem excuse to keep running a negatime campaign.

      See, in the Old Man’s world of Politics (me being the grownup here) Negative campaigns run on the other guys faults/. Easy, since Trump has a lot of those.

      But Old Seasoned voters look at accomplishments – and Biden doesn’t have any.
      No actiown on the border
      Higher Taxes
      Selling our oil reserves to China
      A dickhead and likely crook son passing money to him
      And running negative climate scare crap to drive America into a Great Depression.

      So, what’s your better answer? DeSantis and Abbott with a side of Haley and please, please bring back Ben Carson so there at least be someone smart in the room….

    • Good grief…More jejune lefty TDS tinged…and completely non sequitur… trolling? One can only imagine how bankrupt and bereft of meaning your life must be, if the only thing you can do is troll sites like this with your anti Trump codswallop. Look for something else that will give you a sense of purpose and accomplishment, why don’t you? And give this site a rest. Seriously, you will feel much more at home at a window licking, looney site like Democrat Underground. And you will be much better received. What you lefty cockwombles fail to comprehend is that your TDS screeds only serve to remind us just how much better things were in this country two short years ago (on a host of levels…to include financial, not for nothing the focus of this site)…Which, necessarily, brings to mind just how much worse off we are now thanks to the sclerotic old codger you voted for.

      • GDP growth under trump was less than 1% a year and trump was the first US president to see a net jobs loss on his watch. fact. the national debt increased almost 40% under trump. the markets did ok, but trump stepped into a white hot market that obama left. the market still did better under clinton and obama than trump.

        you’re better than the average adult at name calling, but don’t understand finance at all.

    • I think Clinton allowed similar secrets to go to the CCP, and Obama/Biden financed Iran and abandoned our stuff, along with its secrets in Afghanistan. Trump never got us into a war, and the three democrat names above got us into several, not to mention destroying the business climate. I don’t know what the FBI planned or was thinking, but the entire raid and sequelae was carefully planned to discredit any opposition to the current communists in office.

      • why do you feel trump stole the most sensitive of US classified info and what do you think his plan was to do with it?

    • I have little support for Trump, but many of us would just like to see equal treatment in enforcing the laws. I recall some things that didn’t seems call for armed search warrants when involving deep stators. Hillary’s email servers, I might have missed the platoon of armed agents searching her property and devices. I recall one of her aids in the archive shoving papers down his pants and socks. Cannot remember the congressional hearings that spawned. I recall lots of talk of Hillary collecting FBI files for the enemies list never saw the investigations. Presidents collect millions of documents for their libraries, I have no idea what criteria is used to differentiate their documents vs stuff to remain classified. The FBI does not and should not get any benefit of the doubt, with the entire Russian collaboration nonsense and then setting up the Michigan governor kidnapping plan. I still want to know about Ray Epstein and why he is not arrested and rotting in jail with others. The FBI targeting parents as domestic terrorists because they were confronting school boards for their leftist agendas. Where are the names of people for the flights to pedo island? The FBI ridiculous messaging that the biggest threat to the US is white supremacist organizations. No they have lost all trust from many of us and I would be happy to have their organization go through a radical re-sizing. First though I hope someone closes all job openings for IRS agents, we know as they exist today, they will focus on political targets.

    • Y’know, now might be a good time to mention that nobody knows if there were any restricted-access files or documents of any kind, at Mar-a-Lago.

      There is certainly no evidence of “America’s most closely guarded secrets.”

      If there were, the FBI wouldn’t be able to view or catalog them. Neither would the Archivist’s staff, and whoever carefully arranged those “Top Secret” file folders for the photo op setup could not legally examine any of the folders’ contents, or even determine if the folders HAD contents.

      Sorry, sonny. Despite the ad hominem attack, this is a fail, and does nothing except demonstrate that you can c/p stuff from people whose opinions run faster than their brains.

  9. The Dow Jones has fought hard to stay above the magical, yet only psychological 30,000.., the NASDAQ above 11,000.., both failed this morning.., even oil has taken a 4 % drop and is below 80 $ a barrel. Powell better have some real “happy thoughts” and catchy phrases today.

    • The other day I mentioned gold price going down but no change at retail.

      Today I noticed price slipped a little at retail. Nothing major but down is down.

  11. Most states don’t have car inspections except for smog tests in some urban areas. I avoided Texas as a potential residence largely because of that, along with only a few areas high and dry enough for my physiology. Unfortunately, it’s also a rich state, which brings a lot more enforcement action against stupid rule violations. I was in Texas yesterday and counted three state police with cars pulled over for something or other in only 50 miles. In NM, I drove several hundred miles that day and never saw a single state trooper bothering anyone. Truly dangerous drivers usually exterminate themselves if you just stay out of their way.

    • Think Texas bad … CANADA for THE WIN!!!

      NO RUST is allowed on cars in Canada. Go in for your yearly inspection and they find rust you HAVE to take it to a shop to have the rust part cut out and REPLACED before you can get your plates renewed!!

      I live up north in a place where in the winter the road is a virtual Salt Mine. Salt + Moisture + Car = NIVANA for RUST!! If rust is really alive … wow those rust bunnies LOVE living here.

      NO inspections of any sort where I specifically live, not even emissions testing, which makes me very very happy.

      • “NO RUST is allowed on cars in Canada. Go in for your yearly inspection and they find rust you HAVE to take it to a shop to have the rust part cut out and REPLACED”

        My butt!

        Ever buy one used? It’ll be so full of Bondo a magnet won’t stick to the panels (did that once — live and learn.)

  12. Folks,

    The DNC fundraiser events are popping up like rabbits this week. The transcript link to Mr. Biden’s remarks from yesterday are not in the usual place. Perhaps remarks from today will show up.

    In the meantime, Admin staffers should be heading over to the WH South Lawn without delay as Sir Elton John provides supporting entertainment this evening. Tomorrow Sir Elton’s continuing Farewell Tour stops off at Nationals Park with some tunes for the plebs.

    Let’s check in to see how DJ George is doing in studio to recreate the Honky Château memorialized by van Gogh.
    “Goodbye Yellow Brick Road”.

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