Peoplenomics.com: Seven Ways to Beat the Bank

These are hard times, whether the people in Washington will admit it, or not: For most of us, lifestyle declines are on the verge of showing up in 2014. One of the biggest indicators could be reductions in the rate of increase for military pensions which will punish those who serve. Those savings will, in part, benefit those immigrating to the US. So in this kind of an environment, we offer some year-end planning ideas for 2014 that may help you “beat the bank.

Follow-Up

Excuse the interruption, but there is more on the possibility that all the worry about 2012 was off by a year or longer. It’s up on the UrbanSurvival Google+ and Facebook pages. Now back to your shopping.

Here Comes Bitcoin Competition

Say, here’s an interesting one to keep an eye on:  Competition in the wings for Bitcoin:

Scharmbeck Worldcoin Financial Services launched live beta testing today of an online platform that will streamline the buying, trading and use of Cryptocurrency (Cryptocoin).  Beginning with the worldwide launch of Worldcoin’s new user-friendly system in February, the general public will not only be able to directly purchase Worldcoin instantly, but processing speeds for using Worldcoin will be 20x faster than Bitcoin. That means businesses will be able to process Worldcoin payments as effortlessly as accepting a credit card.

Until now Cryptocoins, such as Bitcoin and its Altcoin competitors, have been traded and praised primarily by the tech crowd, but the general public is now starting to take notice. Bitcoin, the most popular Cryptocoin, has seen its value skyrocket from $0.30 per coin in 2011 to a high of $1,224.00.  Last month, the value of Worldcoin hovered around $0.06, yet surpassed $1.00 on Black Friday. The value of Worldcoin is expected to spike drastically by February when they become the first Altcoin to sell directly to the public without having to first purchase Bitcoin.  Thereafter, Worldcoin will no longer be tied to Bitcoin’s violent swings in price.  Worldcoin’s new program will make buying, selling and converting into fiat currency a simple process. 

No idea how it’s going to play, but here comes well-backed competition…

Watch the POG (Price of Gold)

My friend Robin Landry and I have been watching the POG and shares of GLD rather closely, since gold is still hovering just under the $1,200 level this morning.  But, it is still in range to take out the June lows.  If that happens for a day, or three, then the odds of gold dropping down toward the $1,100 level and lower increase.

More likely, though, we are at a rallying point which might give us one more run up to the $1,400 level.  Which would fit nicely with a rally in stocks and other assets into January, but along about the end of January we come to a Bradley turn date and that’s when things ought to get really interesting.  Will the Bradley invert?

[A good explanation of the Bradley may be found here, although the more people that follow one stock market indicator, the worse it seems to work.]

The other thing we’re eyeing (with some suspicion) is the 10-year Treasury yields.  They were up yesterday to an intraday 2.95 on the CBOE and that’s against a 52 week high of 2.98.  A break above that could be friendly for Gold and painful for Stocks.

The mechanics being simple:  Stocks need the prospect of better returns than bonds and if interest rates go up, given stable earnings, stocks could make a major decline in the spring.

So we’ll be keeping a close eye on trading between now and year end to see what’s coming.  About the only thing to be said with conviction this morning is that we’re at a critical trading juncture for another few weeks which could set the stage for an early 2014 blow-off top, or it could set the stage for a massive collapse of stock prices.  Either way, we do live in “interesting times” indeed.

Robin’s take was that the higher interest rates (recent strength in the ^TNX) may discourage some of the long-term gold holders, weakening price.  But it all eventually could come around to monetary debasement, and that’s been one of the best (and easiest) bets I’ve ever made.

Blow Out GDP Report

Just out from the government Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued on December 5, 2103. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.6 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3). With this third estimate for the third quarter, increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and in nonresidential fixed investment were larger than previously estimated.

Of course, what goes unmentionable is the underlying Federal Reserve (easy) money supply figures.  In the latest weekly update, the Fed admits to M1 going up at an 8.9% (annualized 3-month) rate while M2 is going up 6.1% (annualized, 3-month rate).

So GDP up 4.1 while annual M2 is up 6.1%?  ‘Scuse me if that still looks like 2% deflation in play.  Now toss in house sales falling and tell me where the green shoots are?

News releases, like this one insist on recovery, despite my skepticism:

NEW YORK, Dec.

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Coping: Was “2012” a Year Off?

From the “What IF Department:  Remember what was going on a year ago this weekend?  The world was supposed to end when the Mayan calendar flipped over.

Yet, if your eyes are open, you’ll notice that things are still here.  (If not, I’d be interested in how you’re reading this…)

HOWEVER, whether things will still be “normal” come February, well, that becomes a matter for a bit of speculation.

Let me run through this for you since I received a fascinating email from 2012 research & writer Patrick Geryl.  This email was titled “Mayan Doomsday = Ragnarok = February 22, 2014”

Hi George,

This will interest everyone… Finally somebody who was able to find the real Mayan Long Count formula! Sorry if it is quite long…

The Mayan Long Count formula decoded at last!

Read down through (and including) the part of the post that begins “The Mayan Long Count is at most a good approximation….”  Once you’ve nibbled on that, then let’s pick up with Patrick’s email of this morning…

There will be a grand cross alignment on January 1, 2014… Uranus and Mars will form a straight line perpendicular to the alignment made by Jupiter-Pluto-Venus-Mercury-Moon-Sun-Earth!

Let me add to the alignment on January 1, 2014. Earth will be “crucified” by planets at four corners:
Venus, Moon, Sun, Mercury, Pluto on one corner with Jupiter at the opposite corner.
Perpendicular to the straight line alignment above, Uranus and Mars will form a straight line, with Uranus at one corner and Mars at the opposite corner.

Doomsday Sunspot Formed on 360 day Calendar round!

January 1, 2014 + 3 days = 357 + 3 = 360 days

This day is January 4!

= day Mayan doomsday sunspot is formed! See my publication on Facebook. Go to December 4: Solar Superstorms and Plantar Alignments.

This sunspot will start to grow rapidly from these Triple Line Ups:

January 17 – February 19, 2014: Triple Line Up Jupiter – Earth – Pluto

January 19 – March 21, 2014: Triple line Up Venus – Jupiter – Pluto
January 22- February 4, 2014: Triple Line Up Venus – Earth – Jupiter

26 – February 9, 2014: Triple Line Up Pluto – Venus -Earth

Conclusions:

1.Carrington event possible from end of January 2014

2. Pole Shift somewhere in February 2014…

Pole Shift Date:

Adding 3 days, starting from January 1 we find 357 + 3 = 360 = formation Mayan Doomsday Sunspot.

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11 Questions About the Longwave Cycle

As some readers may know, this website’s core, solid, founding value point is something called longwave economics.  Before running off simpering to some pop-news anti-think site screaming “I don’t get it!” it’s really very simple, so this morning we will give you a quick dose of the reality.

1.  Cycles Are Real

There are cycles in everything.  Life, relationships, and, current case in point:  Investing.

The sun comes up, the sun goes down.  That’s a cycle.  Same thing works for markets.  They rise (like yesterdays predictable reaction to the Easy-Money Gang at the Fed, which continues making up money through “quantitative easing” because if they don’t print, we crash.   And they fall.  Like at the open this morning, likely.

Now, see?  I told you this would be easy.

2.  We in a SMALL recovery cycle inside a LARGE DEFLATION cycle.

The small recovery cycle is because the Fed is printing money like crazy.  The SMALL recovery is seen when you look at a 5-year chart of the S&P.  Since the bottom of the 2009 market bottom, when the S&P was around 683, the S&P has risen to a remarkable 1,810 and change as of yesterday’s close.  Almost a 3X rise.  Better than your house, huh?

You can see, however, the larger BIG DEFLATION CYCLE when you look at a 10-year Treasury Note chart at maximum zoom out over here.  Notice that in July of 1981, the 10-year note was paying almost 16%. As of the close Wednesday, it was paying 2.89%.

This is called DEFLATION and when it ends, maybe in the 2014 – 2017 period, we still likely start up the inflation path, yet again.

3.  Proofs of Deflation

God, this is simple!  Look at housing prices.  Look at the declines of income.  Inflation-adjusted consumer discretionary.  Your lifestyle.  Are you blind?

4.  Then Why are Stocks Going Up?

There are two simple reasons: 

First is the Fed is making money extraordinarily available for its buddies.  You and I have to deal at the retail level, but at the wholesale level, if you will, money is cheap.  When the Fed stops passing out money on street corners the market goes into a tizzy.   And when you see a good-sized decline going into a Fed meeting, it’s really just the market trying to strong-arm the Fed into passing out still more money. 

And in yesterday’s “easy way out” decision, Ben Bernanke, el al, did exactly this, because they read the same history we do.  And they probably have a very good idea of where we are.

The second reason stocks are going up?  The returns on stocks, which would have been a laughing matter at these level 10-years ago, look pretty good compared to what banks are paying.  Last time I looked (two weeks ago) the Big National Banks were paying little guys like us one-tenth of one frigging percent.  Per year.

That’s BS because you know what?  Government figures out this week showed, if you were paying attention, that prices of stuff we actually BUY are going up at 1.2% per year.  Official numbers are right here.

5.  What’s Ure point?

Lookie here, and I’m talking to that dodo next to you:  If you put money in a bank at 0.1% and the cost of stuff is going up at 1.2%, that means you’re actually losing money putting it in a bank!  Yes: I think only an idiot puts money they want a return on their dough.  Buy something there will be a greater demand and price for in the future!

Sure, a bank is a great place to stash tax payments, property tax money, and you need it for transactions, of course.  But with the bad taste the public has for stocks (thanks to the lack of dough due to the housing disaster and memories of the Tech Wreck/Internet bubble collapse, stocks have been screaming.

6.  But stocks can go down…

So can  banks.  In fact: There have been about 6,500 bank branches closed in the USA since the IndyMac crisis.  Just last week, the Texas Community Bank, National Association down in the Houston area went down.  The painful purge is still with us.

7.  But can’t companies go bankrupt?

Maybe, but remember the Fed has been passing out money like crazy.  Pick solid companies with products you really use (medical supplies like Band-Aids, or food products, toilet paper, or whoever makes that next computer you’re thinking about).  They can go bankrupt, too, but by then if they do, banks will have done a bail in anyway.

8.  But stocks can go down…

Would you shut up on risk? Driving is a risk, getting out of bed is a risk.  If you think a stock, or group of stocks is going into free-fall, read up on the intelligent use of options to protect your position from downside. 

And better, learn to use the triple-levered exchange-traded funds (ETFs).  These are amazingly simple, liquid as hell, and our Peoplenomics trading model, based on using triple levered funds turned in 39% year to date when we ran the numbers a couple of weeks back.  The market’s still moving up and I figure it will end the year up about 44%.

This is NOT investment advice.  All I do is advise people to think.

9. I’m not sold on the Longwave view of Life.

Suit yourself.

Back in April of this year, I presented Peoplenomics readers with a Kondratieff view of 2013.  And in it was a most revealing chart that most people are totally ignorant of.  Even professional economists hold something magical about the 1930’s Depression, but from the Longwave perspective, the Great Depression was NOT, as it turns out the “biggy”.

Here’s what I think many of the hackademics miss:  There were actually four distinct panics in the period 1903 to 1921.  Only one of these is attributable to the outbreak of hostilities in World War I.

And then what happened?  Easy money, good times, and the run-up to what turned out to be the 1930’s Great Depression event.

However, since the Kondratieff wave timing low was likely “set” with the trough war (called the US Civil War, if you’ve heard of it?) then when would we expect the first of the panics to arrive, given that the nominal length of a longwave period is 54,5 years?

Well, the Civil War broke out in 1861.  So adding 54-years to that would give us what?  1905, ideally, and yet here we are with the 1903 and 1907 panics and this latter one saw the market drop half of its value, as measured by the Dow Jones average.

Where does that 1905 ideal low land us in the next cycle?  Well, at another little trough war called the Vietnam War, which you may have also heard of.

And OMG, look:  the K-wave low was hit in 1962.

Which brings me to the Big Picture of where we are today and where I think we’re going.

I’m just penciling 1962 plus 54 and you can do the math yourself. These charts do not decrement for purchasing power dilution/monetary inflation, which make the assertion even more obvious.

10.  So when do we get to the bottom of this crappy economy?

This is what I reported to Peoplenomics subscribers in April 2013. 

When our “Bottom is Due”

Well, the short answer is that it should have been here on February 14, 2013. However that would only be true if we had perfect symmetry between the 6/22/1962 low and the mini-crash low on 10/19/1987. Unfortunately, the date range as Kondratiev himself notes, may vary by as much as 25%.  We’ll study this in detail as we move forward this morning.

Still, that does give us a pretty good insight into the market timing: We observe an implied rather precise economic cycle length here as being made up of ~9,250 days, which would translate to a recent K-Wave length of 50.6849 years.  From this basic calculation we can inspect how well this fits by looking back through market history.

9,250 days before that 1962 low was 2/23/1937. But the actual market low for what most economists figure to have been a secondary Depression, off the 1929 collapse, showed up about a year off-schedule on March 31, 1938.

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Coping: OH, That Typo, Newsroom Insights

Our phone service was out for about 12-hours out here at the “end of the string” into the early hours of today.  Reason being the local water company had put in some pipe years and years ago, and thanks (probably to all the oil drilling around us) the land has gotten kind of “shifty-like.”  Old water lines break.  And so they ripped out a particular section  about a block-long that has been breaking on a regular basis, and they’ve replaced it with newer stuff.  Which will last another hour, or two anyway.

In the process, of course, dig laws and marker flags or not, the local water company managed to tear out phones for a half mile around and – bless him – a CenturyLink fellow named Jim and his crew were up until past 3 AM getting all our phones and internet connections working again. We appreciate that.

It goes to show that what makes a company good is the people, and sometimes that gets overlooked.

And so as things came back on line here? What’s the second email I get? After the :”secret that turns women on” spam?

“Disclaimer is misspelled on top bar – sorry about that, could not help mydelf.”

Once again, we come to the matter of typos around here.

A bit of background to put things into perspective:  I worked in my (real) news-gathering life in RADIO.  And, since we had to SOUND good, as opposed to WRITE well, I got to the point after 15-years of on air news-reading that you could put the most hacked-up, mis-spelled piece of garbage in front of me and I could read it like it was the authoritative word from On High.

The skill is finely honed when colleagues get ahold of the freshly written copy for the next newscast and write in a few clever lines which land you in trouble if you don’t read ahead. 

And example might be something like this… (try reading this aloud as though you were actually on the air…go ahead…good for training the mind…)

“…and in other news from City Hall, the Mayor is schedule to meet with the city council president tomorrow is discuss the budget.  And don’t fart.  As the city continues to work on solutions to a revenue shortfall which could leave the city millions of dollars short of necessary revenue.  You asshole.

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Fed Takes the Easy Way Out

…out, that is for Ben Bernanke, who in a few minutes will waltz up to the microphones and undoubtedly try to walk a soft middle between reining in runaway government money printing (in the back room via quantitative easing) while at the same time, putting enough of a scare in the market that higher rates are still likely coming…just not yet….to keep runaway inflation from setting in.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments.

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Peoplenomics.com: Time-Circular Business Models

Twists and turns on the internet lately as some of the nation’s biggest companies are moving around how they do business. Especially in how they use “social media.” And, since we’re in that “space” around here, it’s interesting as all get-out to see how some of this is evolving. So whether you’re a writer with a popular blog who’s trying to maximize returns from social media, or whether you’re a company that has just dumped a bundle into that new social campaign, better get ready to defend your wallet as we unmask the Time-Circular Business Model. Before we explain how this works, however, a few news headlines and a look at our Trading Model to get things rolling.

Consumer Prices Flat

We begin this morning with a discussion of the just-released consumer price index…“

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The energy index declined in November, offsetting increases in other indexes to result in the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged.

The indexes for gasoline and for natural gas fell significantly, more than offsetting increases in the electricity and fuel oil indexes. The food index rose slightly in November, with the food at home index unchanged. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November. Increases in the indexes for shelter and airline fares accounted for most of the increase, with the indexes for recreation and for used cars and trucks also rising.

The indexes for apparel, for household furnishings and operations, and for new vehicles all declined in November.

The all items index increased 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, a larger increase than the 1.0 percent rise for the 12 months ending October.

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Coping: CBS Vitamin Report – Rethinking Prepping?

The mind reels with a report out this morning from CBS that three new studies have concluded that everything else roughly equal, there’s no statistical advantage to taking vitamins.  Holy smokes!

Not that all vitamins are bad, and yes, this means you still need to eat a balanced diet (but who really does?) and you might do better spending your money on fresh fruits and veggies.

This may have an effect on prepping, though, since one of the things we keep rotated in stock are vitamins on the theory that when the old crappola hits the thing going around, that any kind of vitamin deficiency could be very bad.  Given that under such conditions, there may not be good medical care around.

On the other hand, the story might free up some money around here, since (as I’ve reported previously) I have not noticed anything from many of the supplements which I have put through my own personal clinical trials.  That has involved taking a dose of vitamin X for three weeks to a month and seeing if there was any appreciable health effect.

Only three have cut the mustard in a big way with me, so far.  These are black cherry extract which really does seem to improve pending gout attacks.  Coupled with a couple of colchicine pills (criminally over-priced thanks to the Fooled and Drugged Administration) gout has ceased to be an issue.

The second one that works well for me is L-arginine.  It really does improve my “wake up”  in the morning.  Mental fog which I sometimes used to experience for an hour or two has been banished for good.  I’m drinking coffee, although at much lower caffeine levels, and still feeling “sharp.”

The last in the combination of buffered vitamin C and lysine which, with all due respect to the study just out, I will stick with Dr. Linus Pauling on.  Reports on the study didn’t mention whether the multi-gram version of vitamin C and lysine.  The Linus Pauling Institute at Oregon State University has a short summary of the approach here (which also involves lipoprotein a.

OK, so what does this do for preppers?

Well, for one thing, I guess I can reduce (or end) my personal clinical testing after I get done with the last vitamins/supplements I have.  Although I will continue on Carlson Labs Able Eyes, To Promote Healthy Vision, 180 Softgels ($72, Amazon) since I do notice an improvement in my eyesight under two conditions.  One is the high-dose vitamin C and the other is the eye supplement.  So it stays.

This is not to say everyone could, or should, and no, this is not medical advice, either.  Remember that I have cataracts removed from both eyes in the 1980’s and implants put in both eyes in the 1990s.  I am incredibly care about anything having to do with eyes.  But does a person in otherwise good health need an eye supplement?  I’ll leave that to your and your healthcare professional and I will keep reading all I can on point at www.pubmed.gov.

Gaye’s New Book

“What’s the prepper angle Ure was talking about?”

Since Americans spend something like $28-billion a year on vitamins, the money you save (if you swallow the report out today) is more than enough to build a good food storage program and get serious about prepping, if you haven’t been, already.

Gaye over at www.backdoorsurvival.com has a new book just released called The Prepper’s Guide to Food Storage which is available from Amazon for Kindle.  But don’t let that hold you back if you don’t have a Kindle yet.  Simply go download the free Amazon app over here for whatever your pick of brain amplifiers happens to be.

The book is very useful. 

Right off the bat, she gets into the 26-basic foods to put into your food storage plans.  Toss in a system to rotate your stores and it’s pretty simple to start building a little “depth” to your pantry.

She also goes into specific price comparisons on different things (like bulk foods) at Safeway, Wal-Mart (online), Costco, and Thrive. 

If you’ve got a family, the money saved will probably more than pay for the book in bulk food savings alone.

The de-emphasis of vitamins report is a biggie.  As luck would have it, I just added to our stores of meat/protein sources by ordering several Oberto All Natural Teriyaki Beef Jerky, X-Large, 10 ounce packages at  $12.49 a bag.  That’s not too bad when you look at the price of beef these days.

And last, but not least, as long as we’re on prepping and eats this morning, I need to put in my usual plug for our friends at the Tsue Chong Company up in Seattle.  These folks made the noodles I grew up on and if you visit their website here, you can order 10-five pound boxes of fine-cut Chinese eggs noodles.  We use them in place of locally available wheat noodles and they work great for spaghettis and what-have-you’s.

OK, enough on food.  Getting hungry….  Let me think….ah yes…

The Antenna Questions

.A couple of people asked Gaye “Why did George recommend the Nagoya 771 antenna in his column and you had the 701 in your article?”

Gee, beats me.  Could it be that George is an idiot?  Hmmm…

Turns out this is one of those little details in life that will likely not make too much of a difference.  Putting on my ham radio tutoring hat (which looks similar to the Pope’s mitre (a papal kind of hat explained over here, except my ham radio version has a Fluke 87 display smack in the middle of it…) let me explain.

The specs on the Nagoya 701 are on eHam over here.  Notice gain = 2.15 dB.

The specs on the Nagoya 711 are also on eHam here.  Notice gain: = 2.15 db

They are both dual-band antennas and since the gain is identical, it doesn’t seem to me that it makes any difference.  The ONE PLACE it might make a difference is if you have a different radio that the Baofengs we were talking about.  The 771 has a slightly higher power rating (10-watts).

Gaye, being suspicious of all things electronic, then asked how to test to see if the antenna (701) was working.

Simple.  What I would do is tune in either a repeater which is heavily used (like one down in the Seattle area) or tune in one of the NOAA weather channels which is weak.  This is denoted by fuzziness around the edges of the audio.

Tune it in with the stock antenna (preferably the ham band repeater, since this is where the radio will be used) and then plug in the Nagoya.  You should notice an improvement in performance (better quieting of the FM receive signal).

Might the 711 be a better choice?  Hell, until yesterday afternoon, I didn’t even know there was a choice.  But again, looking at the specs there shouldn’t be a difference.

Still, it may be like so many other hobbies and pursuits, a little thicker layer of money may improve things… I’ll be interested to see what she reports when she gets down that far on her ToDo list…

Darn Magazines

A new issue of “Worth” arrived yesterday for Elaine.  She likes to see how the other half lives, but I already know the answer to that one:  Well.  Very, very well.

But anyway, she asked me if I had any idea what a new Vertu phone was going for?  (no).  But that prompted me to find out how much dough I could piss away on a phone if I was really ‘effing crazy.

The answer, if you want to step up for a Apple iPhone 5 32GB – Black – Rose Gold and Black Diamonds Luxury Mobile Phone, is $12,379.  

I was going to buy Elaine this little gem for Christmas, but since it didn’t seem to have free shipping, so I guess she’ll have to settle for something less.

Which popped out at me big as life in the January 2014 issue of QST – that ham radio time sink on paper that I just about memorize monthly.  Page 38, or so, has an article on how to use a USB dongle as a software-defined radio and set up your own home weather radar center using FAA ADS-B signals available in many parts of the country.

Yep, just like our plane, you can see live weather…now which would you rather have, honestly?  A serious home weather radar or a gold and diamond iPhone.

No, I mean really?

Speaking of Ladies and Prepping

T’other morning a (male) reader wrote about his wife’s getting into prepping and mentioned that she sure bought a lot of various things.  But lookie-here!  The lady defends!

Hello George, this is the wife of the author of the below email. I feel, as a woman, I need to defend my actions in said email. Yes my husband did send me to get feminine products in bulk, which I did come home with….but as a woman, we almost never get just what was on the “list”. My husband goes through about 1 loofa a month so I decided to stock up on those too, for no other reason than to have them on hand for the “now”. This purchase had nothing to do with the prepping actions that we are taking. Unfortunately my husband didn’t ask, and therefore just assumed it was a prep purchase. Also to comment on the amount of loofahs I bought, I purchased 6…..which is hardly a lifetime supply :) I just felt the need to clear that up.

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Dissonance Dissolution Monday: BIOS Plot?

First off, hats off to CBS News for one hell of a fine discussion about what the NSA does – and does not do relative to American citizens, privacy, and related items, like collection of meta data about phone calls.

You can watch the segment, if you missed it, on the CBS website:

For me, since I wrote a book a while back (Broken Web The Coming Collapse of the Internet ) the key part in the transcript of the report was the disclosure by the NSA of something called “The BIOS Plot”.

The pertinent part of the interview (from the transcript) was this:

“This is the BIOS system which starts most computers. The attack would have been disguised as a request for a software update. If the user agreed, the virus would’ve infected the computer. “

This is exactly the kind of internet nightmare I outlined in my book as a possibility:  A virus that spoofs an update from Redmond or Cupertino and off goes the Internet.  And what of all those counterfeit routers that were discovered a few years back? 

And how many exploits have potential enemies found that even our best and brightest may have inadvertently baked into the cake?  BIOS warfare remains, for now, one of those dark clouds on the horizon.  But it’s out there and my sense is that it’s very important to follow it closely.

The other key part (about 9-minutes in)  is the discussion about the damage done by Edward Snowden.  And, in a refreshing change, the Agency is quite candid about what Snowden did, how he did it, and what it means.  the Snowden “Keys to the kingdom” quote is at 11:18 in.

And now, there’s discussion of whether Edward Snowden should be offered amnesty – in return for bringing back all the lifted documents.  But, as is discussed in the video, there are issues with that.

It’s a rare look at the “sharp point of the spear.”  And while you and I may have (very deep) concerns about the possibility of infringements on America’s traditional liberties, the other side of it is that countries and “non-state” players exist who would end our way of life.

For exposing the “inside” perspective, agree with it or not, 60-Minutes got this one right.

China’s Moon Wander

Speaking of potential adversaries, down the road (if and when we stiff them on massive bond holdings) the second Biggie this morning is China’s adventuring on the Moon.

Not only does Chinese state media have pictures of their moon rover activities up through this link, but they have also have graphics like this one that explain what they’ve done.

While the US has been busy mothballing NASA, we sadly note that the Chinese have announced another follow-on to occur in 2017 when Chang’e-5 will be launched.

In a very pathetic sense, the US is in process of acceding the Moon to another country.  Near as I can figure it, this is just one more reason than virtually no one in Washington deserves reelection.  Time for a little more old-school Americanism:  Lead, follow, or get out of the way. 

Ever see a whole country forfeit its leadership role, like we have?

And, meantime, speaking of China:  This from our news analyst fellow in Canada:

Dear Mr. Ure,

On Friday, “China Daily” outlined stated aims of the 2014 Central Economic Work Conference which included a drive for Chinese self-sufficiency in subsistence grains. One day earlier, the “Associated Press” reported the charging of six Chinese nationals by US prosecutors for allegedly stealing patented seed in Iowa.

The kissy-face on finance and the espionage in the back room – that’s the kind of thing that is being exploited in terms of developing American cognitive dissonance.  Whether that’s “real” or merely an exploit, I’ll leave it to you to discern.

But check out this note on Chinese security improvements:

I wonder if a QKD through free-space realization means China could complete all space functions from domestic territory and forgo currently required ESA landlinks?

All of which is bad…very, very bad for our “independence” – or is that the plan and why cognitive dissonance is being planted?  Again, for you to discern.

More after this…

Robotics & Productivity: Blessing and/or Curse

New figures are out from the Labor Department this morning on Productivity. 

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 3.0 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2013, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

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Coping (Prepper Notes): Ham Radio Presents/Lessons

My friend Gaye (www.backdoorsurvival.com) and her hubby are proud new ham radio owners, having picked up a pair of Baofeng UV-5R 136-174/400-480 MHz Dual-Band DTMF CTCSS DCS FM Ham Two Way Radio at under $30 each, along with a programming cable (USB Programming Cable for Baofeng UV-5R UV-3R+ Two way Radio With Driver CD) for less than $7-bucks.  Dandy season gift, huh?

Which means, they’re about to pick up ham radio licenses and become part of a US population of hams which presently numbers (as of a year ago) in the area of 710,000. 

I think a couple of things have driven them to ham radio.  The most recent being that they live in the San Juan Islands of Washington State.  And, up there, they were recently part of the 20,000 people, or so, who were impacted by a major Internet failure when fiber optic cable serving the islands’ population was severed due (apparently) to a small undersea earth slide and accompanying small quake.

That little adventure left them without communications which became very spotted.  Ever check the cost of roaming from the US to Canada?  That IF you could get a connection.

A good bit of the San Juan island group is covered by radio services, such as the Mt. Constitution tower site which puts antennas up at 2300 – feet, or so. In addition to things like public safety (fire and police agencies) such towers (around most of the US) provide television coverage, cell phone antenna space, and more.

What was interesting during the Internet issues, was that the two-way services kept on working, since the AC power to the island didn’t fail.  And, even if it had, there is plenty of back-up and emergency power at the typical such mountain-top site.

And it’s on tall towers that this that ham radio clubs often put their “repeaters.”

The operation of a repeater is pretty simple:  A person transmits on one frequency (called the repeater input frequency) which is “heard” by a receiver on a high location (like Mt. Constitution).  The “repeater” then rebroadcasts this on what’s call the “repeater output” which is a different frequency, often times 600 kilohertz above, or below the input frequency. 

This difference between the input frequency is also commonly called the “off-set” of the repeater.

Only one more little addition:  Sub audible tones.

Pretend, for a moment, that you didn’t want random interference to “key” (begin transmitting) of your repeater on a mountain somewhere.  How would you prevent it?

One simple way is to encode a low-frequency audio tone – something that would almost never happen with interference.    All you need to do is inject a low frequency tone, say 103.5 Hz, into the audio of the handheld unit and tell the repeater (using a very selective audio filter) not to transmit until this tone is heard.

This technology has been around for a long time and is called a CTCSS tone and most ham radio repeaters (as well as public services) use them.  It stands for Continuous Tone-Coded Squelch System.

A few other useful things to know about tone encoding systems:  It’s a variant (quite audible) of this tone-encoding system that is used by the National Weather Service to trigger NOAA Weather Radio Alerts.  You can read move about the alert system (as well as discover the tone frequency they use is 1060 Hz) and get a list of receiver manufacturers over at the NOAA website here.

Gaye and I spent a fair bit of time figuring out which ham radios they wanted as “beginner rigs” and the Baofengs are very good.  For under $30-bucks, are you kidding?

But Gaye’s a stickler for detail, so this led her to learning about the UV-5R reviews over at eHam.net, which is a favorite watering hole for hams to post reviews and thoughts on equipment, both new and old school.

As long as you’re over at eHam, check out their review of the Nagoya-771 antenna here.

Here’s how the antenna discussion game up:  Gaye and Shelly are both in Seattle and the Eastside often.;  And, since Mt. Constitution is about 80 miles (liner of sight) from Mt. Constitution, the odds of making a reliable connection  at that distance is fairly low with the “stock” antenna with the Baofeng.

However, the odds improve after seven bucks per radio spent on the Nagoya NA-771 dual band 144/430Mhz U/V SMA-F antenna for Baofeng UV-5R radios.

That ought to get them coverage from most of Anacortes up into the Islands from the ferry terminal in Anacortes.  But will they be able to connect into Seattle?  Or, into Bellevue?

This is where budding hams, like our friends up north learn about the differences between antenna height above sea level and  HAAT, or antenna “height above average terrain.”

So Can They Communicate?

Pardon the crude drawing here, but here’s how the question (can they communicate?) will be solved:

We know that the Mt. Constitution ham repeater is at 2,300 feet elevation (*above mean sea level) and so we click over to the one of the convenient online calculators to keep us from having to find a calculator to work out the formulas by hand.  Their output frequency (the one to listen to) is 146.740 MHz.  Tone is 103.5.

A good one is located over here.  And we can see that if the mountain is 2300 feet to the antenna (or thereabouts) and the handheld radio is at 100 feet up, then it should work.

But there are a couple of variables here that are still flapping around in the breeze.

The first is that we don’t know how strong the signal from a 5-watt handheld will be from Seattle up to the mountain.  Radio waves, you know, propagate at the “inverse square law.”  This simply means that at twice the distance, there’s only a quarter of the power.  Do that several times because of the distance involved in getting 5-watts to “talk” 90 miles and a LOT of whether this works will depend on how a) sensitive the Mt. Constitution receiver is – and where its squelch threshold is set and b) how high the handheld radio is above average terrain.

If you look at a map, there’s a lot of high ground between Seattle and Mt. Constitution.  And while height above sea level is useful, it’s only applicable when you’re using boats and open water.  In this case we have a good chunk of Whidbey Island in our way.

By the way, this map is something I snipped out of Streets and Trips 2013 with GPS which is now under $40 at Amazon.  You talk about a great stocking stuffer? 

We always fly our old Beechcrate with my traveling computer (with Streets and Trips) and the USB-GPS antenna) as a “just in case” tool.  No, it doesn’t given airport data, but if I can just find an airport, I can land by just looking at it.

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FedCoins: Peoplenomics Annual Forecast (Part3)

This weekend, we wrap up the remaining four subject areas in our Seven Major Systems model of how (physical) life works for humans as we peer into 2014. We’ll hatch an answer to Bitcoins in our discussion (finance: subset virtual) about a concept I call FEDCOINs. You will be flat-ass amazed at how many of our financial woes they could solve both short and long-term. (Doing our annual forecast is a joy when a decent breakthrough concept bonks me on the head.

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