I have to imagine the biggest part of “coping” right now is all the last-minute holiday activities, so I’ll keep this morning’s comments short and to the point.  (yeah, right…)

As of this morning, it looks like the weather is not exactly cooperating:  There are plenty of reports of delays traveling around the East.  As usual, the mainstream media will be pointing out how serious the situation is, but a more relaxed ‘tude suggests that it is winter after all, so what’s the big?

The latest Triple A Gas Gauge report (over here) offers that the current price of regular (nationally) pencils out to $3.258 compared with a year ago when it was running $3.247.  That does tend to back up the recent assertion that there’s little inflation in the economy, so perhaps that’s something to be thankful for.

Around the ranch, we’ll be putting on a turkey later on this morning.  And, about 5 PM, or so, we’ll sit down to a Christmas Eve dinner with all the fixings.  But we’re not doing presents this year.  With the exception of recapturing more of our youth, and planning more travel, there’s not much left to want.

The kids, on the other hand, are getting their checks in the mail and all seems well with that.

There are a few people who contribute greatly to the content around here, who I’d like to personally thank for their help over the past year.  These include:

• Grady at the www.nostracodeus.com project which is where we look at word frequencies of various things, since there have been many instances where words arriving, fresh into the headlines, indicate bits and pieces of the future to come.
• Stephen, my consigliore/ (a real-life) attorney in the upper-Midwest, is on the mend from a skiing accident a week, or two back out in Colorado.  He’s going as fine as can be expected with a plate in his foot, and I just know he’ll be looking forward to future air travel and conversations with TSA about why he’s setting off alarms.  Our wishes for a speedy recovery.
• Bernard Grover of our Jakarta Bureau deserves thanks for the many fine reports from the Dark Side.  That’s where many of the jobs that used to reside in the US have gone. SE Asia.
• No list would be complete without mention of JB Slear over at www.fortwealth.com who always offers keen insights on how commodity markets are going.
• So, too, the comments (particularly on Elliott wave counts) of Robin Landry up in Shawnee, OK are gratefully accepted.  They may get snow for New Years up in Oklahoma, according to the forecasts.
• And then there’s Oilman2 who (right about now) is back offshore on a rig 200 miles out in the Gulf.  Hell, if I was making his day rate, I guess missing some of the meals shoreside would be worth it.  His insights into the real oil picture are very important.  Without oil, without gas, we’re toast as a civilization.
• Our News Analyst fellow up in Winnipeg (David) contributes greatly.  He’s got a sharp, investigative streak and not only knows what the good questions are to ask, but also how to use the wide-open web to find the answers.
• And then there’s Warhammer, our war gamer/expert who’s no longer flapping with the B-52 crowd, but instead if able to share his insights from the (relative) safety of East Coast academia.  Although, I wonder if the Air Force isn’t safer (in some ways) than the battles in higher ed.  Especially with the Student Loan Great Reckoning still ahead.
• And last, but not least Gaye Levy up at www.backdoorsurvival.com. Between our two sites, there’s a carefully planned (sometimes, anyway) symbiotic relationship:  UrbanSurvival is about right now, get it done aspects of news and current events.  BackdoorSurvival offers the longer, more considered prepping plans with plenty of “How to do its” for when you get (properly) freaked by the headlines.

There are many more contributors, of course, but those folks have been like year-long Christmas presents for us:  People whose word you can “take to the bank.”  In their individual fields of expertise, they are great thinkers, with keen perceptions, and it helps us to have the “steady hand on the tiller” look toward the future.

And on days like this, when there’s not a cloudy in the sky and the chance of snow down in this part of Texas is way off to the right of the decimal point, we reflect on the things that matter:  The making and holding of memories.

And the realization that we’ve been living in that place that’s “Over the river and through the woods…”  But we’re not old enough for the rest of what’s in that song.

Have a very Merry Christmas.

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Every month about in here, the Bureau of Economic Analysis pipes up with a “Personal Consumption & Expenditures report” which, while it ain’t no Clive Cussler novel – (Set of 4), still makes for some interesting reading.  Even if this is the time of the year to drift off from non-fiction for some mental escapism.

The set-up to this morning’s report is that Gold is teetering on the brink of dead and the underside of $1,200.  If you remember, last week (and it’s difficult, I’ll grant you that), I was hand-wringing about the price of gold and how once is sunk into the upper 1100’s, it might not be long (a month or four) before it could sink even further.  Like into the upper 1000’s on its way “Who knows how low?”

The Price of Gold (POG) is an important truth detector around here.  I look at it as a way of seeing-through government reports that insist how peachy keen everything is.  Yet, when the housing sales fell on its nose in the most recent read, one could think of a parallel between the price of gold’s decline and the ongoing correction in the housing market.

I could go on (at some great length) about how the Fed policy of “Print just a bit faster than the rate of deflation” is working and that hope no one notices their decline in lifestyles.  The trick is to keep things appearing normal  while the public’s actual standard of living it ratcheted back.

If Santa Claus leaves you a smaller collection of goodies this year, don’t feel bad.  It’s baked in the deflationary cookies.

It’s all because lifestyles are coming down (on average, YMMV) and that’s because of a lack of growth.  And that’s because of consumer super-saturation.  You probably have two, or three, of everything you need already, anyway.  Except for the latest darling phone from Apple, and for those, people will turn violent.  )Why, even in Berlin, raiders drove a care into an Apple store, so valued are their trinkets.)

Alas!  We live in a world which has done an ugly transition without most people knowing it.  We’ve gone from quiet, romantic dinners, to food & texting festivals; from looking into each other’s eyes to looking at an super-hi def display. Mark my words, the birth rate is in trouble.

And we’re gonna solve that one with immigration?

This is progress?

But enough social commentary from the old reprobate in the woods.  Like he was saying, there’s this personal income and expenditure report which is as near a present as the Public on Main Street is likely to get from government’s Grinch…

Personal income increased $30.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $16.2 billion, or 0.1 percent in November according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $63.0 billion, or 0.5 percent.

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For those who missed my FB/G+ post this weekend, I need to post it here so you can follow the latest developments.  (If you read the G+/FB note, skip past this first indented part:)

A reader sent in an interesting reason why this might be the case: Hi George: I hope you have time to look into this one – Today you say What if 2012 was a year off?  Well it could be if the allowances for our calendar were not correct.  I have noted this for many years – where is our year 0 ie zero?  Between BC and AD – or whatever the PC crowd call it now – there is no zero.  Would that not screw up the counting of the big round rock? See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/0_%28year%29 Historians have never included a year zero. This means that between, for example, January 1, 500 BC and January 1, AD 500, there are 999 years: 500 years BC, and 499 years AD preceding 500. In common usage anno Domini 1 is preceded by the year 1 BC, without an intervening year zero. So astronomers and archeologists/historians count it differently… Best regards, B. So with this in mind, I asked 2012 researcher Patrick Geryl about it and his intriguing answer is this: Hi George, I am aware of this possibility… However there is something more. When the Spaniards invaded South America, they destroyed almost all the books. Also they lost the conversion from the Mayan calendar to ours.

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From the “What IF Department:  Remember what was going on a year ago this weekend?  The world was supposed to end when the Mayan calendar flipped over.

Yet, if your eyes are open, you’ll notice that things are still here.  (If not, I’d be interested in how you’re reading this…)

HOWEVER, whether things will still be “normal” come February, well, that becomes a matter for a bit of speculation.

Let me run through this for you since I received a fascinating email from 2012 research & writer Patrick Geryl.  This email was titled “Mayan Doomsday = Ragnarok = February 22, 2014”

Hi George,

This will interest everyone… Finally somebody who was able to find the real Mayan Long Count formula! Sorry if it is quite long…

The Mayan Long Count formula decoded at last!

Read down through (and including) the part of the post that begins “The Mayan Long Count is at most a good approximation….”  Once you’ve nibbled on that, then let’s pick up with Patrick’s email of this morning…

There will be a grand cross alignment on January 1, 2014… Uranus and Mars will form a straight line perpendicular to the alignment made by Jupiter-Pluto-Venus-Mercury-Moon-Sun-Earth!

Let me add to the alignment on January 1, 2014. Earth will be “crucified” by planets at four corners:
Venus, Moon, Sun, Mercury, Pluto on one corner with Jupiter at the opposite corner.
Perpendicular to the straight line alignment above, Uranus and Mars will form a straight line, with Uranus at one corner and Mars at the opposite corner.

Doomsday Sunspot Formed on 360 day Calendar round!

January 1, 2014 + 3 days = 357 + 3 = 360 days

This day is January 4!

= day Mayan doomsday sunspot is formed! See my publication on Facebook. Go to December 4: Solar Superstorms and Plantar Alignments.

This sunspot will start to grow rapidly from these Triple Line Ups:

January 17 – February 19, 2014: Triple Line Up Jupiter – Earth – Pluto

January 19 – March 21, 2014: Triple line Up Venus – Jupiter – Pluto
January 22- February 4, 2014: Triple Line Up Venus – Earth – Jupiter

26 – February 9, 2014: Triple Line Up Pluto – Venus -Earth

Conclusions:

1.Carrington event possible from end of January 2014

2. Pole Shift somewhere in February 2014…

Pole Shift Date:

Adding 3 days, starting from January 1 we find 357 + 3 = 360 = formation Mayan Doomsday Sunspot.

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Our phone service was out for about 12-hours out here at the “end of the string” into the early hours of today.  Reason being the local water company had put in some pipe years and years ago, and thanks (probably to all the oil drilling around us) the land has gotten kind of “shifty-like.”  Old water lines break.  And so they ripped out a particular section  about a block-long that has been breaking on a regular basis, and they’ve replaced it with newer stuff.  Which will last another hour, or two anyway.

In the process, of course, dig laws and marker flags or not, the local water company managed to tear out phones for a half mile around and – bless him – a CenturyLink fellow named Jim and his crew were up until past 3 AM getting all our phones and internet connections working again. We appreciate that.

It goes to show that what makes a company good is the people, and sometimes that gets overlooked.

And so as things came back on line here? What’s the second email I get? After the :”secret that turns women on” spam?

“Disclaimer is misspelled on top bar – sorry about that, could not help mydelf.”

Once again, we come to the matter of typos around here.

A bit of background to put things into perspective:  I worked in my (real) news-gathering life in RADIO.  And, since we had to SOUND good, as opposed to WRITE well, I got to the point after 15-years of on air news-reading that you could put the most hacked-up, mis-spelled piece of garbage in front of me and I could read it like it was the authoritative word from On High.

The skill is finely honed when colleagues get ahold of the freshly written copy for the next newscast and write in a few clever lines which land you in trouble if you don’t read ahead. 

And example might be something like this… (try reading this aloud as though you were actually on the air…go ahead…good for training the mind…)

“…and in other news from City Hall, the Mayor is schedule to meet with the city council president tomorrow is discuss the budget.  And don’t fart.  As the city continues to work on solutions to a revenue shortfall which could leave the city millions of dollars short of necessary revenue.  You asshole.

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…out, that is for Ben Bernanke, who in a few minutes will waltz up to the microphones and undoubtedly try to walk a soft middle between reining in runaway government money printing (in the back room via quantitative easing) while at the same time, putting enough of a scare in the market that higher rates are still likely coming…just not yet….to keep runaway inflation from setting in.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments.

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We begin this morning with a discussion of the just-released consumer price index…“

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The energy index declined in November, offsetting increases in other indexes to result in the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged.

The indexes for gasoline and for natural gas fell significantly, more than offsetting increases in the electricity and fuel oil indexes. The food index rose slightly in November, with the food at home index unchanged. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November. Increases in the indexes for shelter and airline fares accounted for most of the increase, with the indexes for recreation and for used cars and trucks also rising.

The indexes for apparel, for household furnishings and operations, and for new vehicles all declined in November.

The all items index increased 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, a larger increase than the 1.0 percent rise for the 12 months ending October.

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The mind reels with a report out this morning from CBS that three new studies have concluded that everything else roughly equal, there’s no statistical advantage to taking vitamins.  Holy smokes!

Not that all vitamins are bad, and yes, this means you still need to eat a balanced diet (but who really does?) and you might do better spending your money on fresh fruits and veggies.

This may have an effect on prepping, though, since one of the things we keep rotated in stock are vitamins on the theory that when the old crappola hits the thing going around, that any kind of vitamin deficiency could be very bad.  Given that under such conditions, there may not be good medical care around.

On the other hand, the story might free up some money around here, since (as I’ve reported previously) I have not noticed anything from many of the supplements which I have put through my own personal clinical trials.  That has involved taking a dose of vitamin X for three weeks to a month and seeing if there was any appreciable health effect.

Only three have cut the mustard in a big way with me, so far.  These are black cherry extract which really does seem to improve pending gout attacks.  Coupled with a couple of colchicine pills (criminally over-priced thanks to the Fooled and Drugged Administration) gout has ceased to be an issue.

The second one that works well for me is L-arginine.  It really does improve my “wake up”  in the morning.  Mental fog which I sometimes used to experience for an hour or two has been banished for good.  I’m drinking coffee, although at much lower caffeine levels, and still feeling “sharp.”

The last in the combination of buffered vitamin C and lysine which, with all due respect to the study just out, I will stick with Dr. Linus Pauling on.  Reports on the study didn’t mention whether the multi-gram version of vitamin C and lysine.  The Linus Pauling Institute at Oregon State University has a short summary of the approach here (which also involves lipoprotein a.

OK, so what does this do for preppers?

Well, for one thing, I guess I can reduce (or end) my personal clinical testing after I get done with the last vitamins/supplements I have.  Although I will continue on Carlson Labs Able Eyes, To Promote Healthy Vision, 180 Softgels ($72, Amazon) since I do notice an improvement in my eyesight under two conditions.  One is the high-dose vitamin C and the other is the eye supplement.  So it stays.

This is not to say everyone could, or should, and no, this is not medical advice, either.  Remember that I have cataracts removed from both eyes in the 1980’s and implants put in both eyes in the 1990s.  I am incredibly care about anything having to do with eyes.  But does a person in otherwise good health need an eye supplement?  I’ll leave that to your and your healthcare professional and I will keep reading all I can on point at www.pubmed.gov.

Gaye’s New Book

“What’s the prepper angle Ure was talking about?”

Since Americans spend something like $28-billion a year on vitamins, the money you save (if you swallow the report out today) is more than enough to build a good food storage program and get serious about prepping, if you haven’t been, already.

Gaye over at www.backdoorsurvival.com has a new book just released called The Prepper’s Guide to Food Storage which is available from Amazon for Kindle.  But don’t let that hold you back if you don’t have a Kindle yet.  Simply go download the free Amazon app over here for whatever your pick of brain amplifiers happens to be.

The book is very useful. 

Right off the bat, she gets into the 26-basic foods to put into your food storage plans.  Toss in a system to rotate your stores and it’s pretty simple to start building a little “depth” to your pantry.

She also goes into specific price comparisons on different things (like bulk foods) at Safeway, Wal-Mart (online), Costco, and Thrive. 

If you’ve got a family, the money saved will probably more than pay for the book in bulk food savings alone.

The de-emphasis of vitamins report is a biggie.  As luck would have it, I just added to our stores of meat/protein sources by ordering several Oberto All Natural Teriyaki Beef Jerky, X-Large, 10 ounce packages at  $12.49 a bag.  That’s not too bad when you look at the price of beef these days.

And last, but not least, as long as we’re on prepping and eats this morning, I need to put in my usual plug for our friends at the Tsue Chong Company up in Seattle.  These folks made the noodles I grew up on and if you visit their website here, you can order 10-five pound boxes of fine-cut Chinese eggs noodles.  We use them in place of locally available wheat noodles and they work great for spaghettis and what-have-you’s.

OK, enough on food.  Getting hungry….  Let me think….ah yes…

The Antenna Questions

.A couple of people asked Gaye “Why did George recommend the Nagoya 771 antenna in his column and you had the 701 in your article?”

Gee, beats me.  Could it be that George is an idiot?  Hmmm…

Turns out this is one of those little details in life that will likely not make too much of a difference.  Putting on my ham radio tutoring hat (which looks similar to the Pope’s mitre (a papal kind of hat explained over here, except my ham radio version has a Fluke 87 display smack in the middle of it…) let me explain.

The specs on the Nagoya 701 are on eHam over here.  Notice gain = 2.15 dB.

The specs on the Nagoya 711 are also on eHam here.  Notice gain: = 2.15 db

They are both dual-band antennas and since the gain is identical, it doesn’t seem to me that it makes any difference.  The ONE PLACE it might make a difference is if you have a different radio that the Baofengs we were talking about.  The 771 has a slightly higher power rating (10-watts).

Gaye, being suspicious of all things electronic, then asked how to test to see if the antenna (701) was working.

Simple.  What I would do is tune in either a repeater which is heavily used (like one down in the Seattle area) or tune in one of the NOAA weather channels which is weak.  This is denoted by fuzziness around the edges of the audio.

Tune it in with the stock antenna (preferably the ham band repeater, since this is where the radio will be used) and then plug in the Nagoya.  You should notice an improvement in performance (better quieting of the FM receive signal).

Might the 711 be a better choice?  Hell, until yesterday afternoon, I didn’t even know there was a choice.  But again, looking at the specs there shouldn’t be a difference.

Still, it may be like so many other hobbies and pursuits, a little thicker layer of money may improve things… I’ll be interested to see what she reports when she gets down that far on her ToDo list…

Darn Magazines

A new issue of “Worth” arrived yesterday for Elaine.  She likes to see how the other half lives, but I already know the answer to that one:  Well.  Very, very well.

But anyway, she asked me if I had any idea what a new Vertu phone was going for?  (no).  But that prompted me to find out how much dough I could piss away on a phone if I was really ‘effing crazy.

The answer, if you want to step up for a Apple iPhone 5 32GB – Black – Rose Gold and Black Diamonds Luxury Mobile Phone, is $12,379.  

I was going to buy Elaine this little gem for Christmas, but since it didn’t seem to have free shipping, so I guess she’ll have to settle for something less.

Which popped out at me big as life in the January 2014 issue of QST – that ham radio time sink on paper that I just about memorize monthly.  Page 38, or so, has an article on how to use a USB dongle as a software-defined radio and set up your own home weather radar center using FAA ADS-B signals available in many parts of the country.

Yep, just like our plane, you can see live weather…now which would you rather have, honestly?  A serious home weather radar or a gold and diamond iPhone.

No, I mean really?

Speaking of Ladies and Prepping

T’other morning a (male) reader wrote about his wife’s getting into prepping and mentioned that she sure bought a lot of various things.  But lookie-here!  The lady defends!

Hello George, this is the wife of the author of the below email. I feel, as a woman, I need to defend my actions in said email. Yes my husband did send me to get feminine products in bulk, which I did come home with….but as a woman, we almost never get just what was on the “list”. My husband goes through about 1 loofa a month so I decided to stock up on those too, for no other reason than to have them on hand for the “now”. This purchase had nothing to do with the prepping actions that we are taking. Unfortunately my husband didn’t ask, and therefore just assumed it was a prep purchase. Also to comment on the amount of loofahs I bought, I purchased 6…..which is hardly a lifetime supply :) I just felt the need to clear that up.

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