In spite of various market predictors putting up charts espousing a replay of 1929 is imminent, a more measured view of long wave economics argues that we won’t have an economic collapse/crash until April 17, or thereabouts.   We’ll get into the “blood and guts” of why this weekend for subscribers.

But the main thing to be aware of this morning is that on our Peoplenomics side of things,  I developed a trading model.  And for a number of weeks it has been saying “new highs ahead in the short term.”  Advice I promptly discounted thinking the methodology that I’d put into the model was somehow flawed, has been amazingly right.

Even if the present rally in global markets peters out right here, the earliest likely market crash window would not come until around April 17th.

This timing suggests a lot of things…and one biggy is that we should see an agreement among the EU/US/Russia to begin talks on the future of Ukraine.  That would likely be struck in the next week or two.

And if that gooses the markets to new (nominal, but not purchasing power parity) highs, then the crash window could be delayed into May.

And here we are, on option expiration day for the month, and the Consumer Price Index hasn’t gone roaring to the moon.  And The Conference’ Board’s Leading Economic Indicators  is just about as rosy as could be:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 99.5 (2004 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.9 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index continues to fluctuate on a monthly basis, but the six-month average growth rate has been relatively stable in recent months,  which suggests that the economy will remain resilient in the first half of 2014 and underlying economic conditions should continue to improve,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Correspondingly, the U.S. Coincident Economic Index, which measures current conditions, has continued rising steadily.”

Markets, globally, seem to agree.

Overnight, the Japanese market “went helium” rising nearly 2.9% and the Chinese chipped in for better than a 3/4 of one percent boost. 

And, it’s carrying over into Europe, as well.  In the early going there, small gains were being reported in all three major exchanges – England, France, and Germany.

Despite this, our proprietary Global Aggregate Index was holding in the vicinity of  29,116.  In order for us to get comfortable with getting seriously long, the Aggregate Index would need to beat the recent high  29,234.27 that was set the week ending January 24th.

Otherwise, there’s a fair-to-middling chance that the markets are doing a classic double-top formation and from that, a major decline would be possible. 

Most of that is likely to be determined not in today’s options settlement, but in how market participants reposition and hedge their bets next week and beyond.  And that, in turn, should hinge on developments in Ukraine.

With the Sochi Games wrapping up Sunday, we’ll be keeping a very close eye on how Russia plays events as the window for headline-grabbing (and western-inspired?) “terrorism at the Olympics” comes to a close.  that “judging” story in Sochi  is down in the noise floor around here.  BS and distractions to all but the ardent true believers in sports.

Read More

I assume you know that the death toll in Ukraine’s latest revolution is now heading up toward 50?  This as the peace talks and truce worked out last night blew up on the streets, but there’s good reason for that.

As I’ve been saying, it’s a three-way international power struggle.  The US is backing one (violent) right-winger.  The EU faction of the Enterprise is backing another, and as soon as the Sochi Games wrap up, there will likely be some “friendly” Russians showing up in Ukraine (like advisors showed up in Syria) all countries are failing economically and need the jump-start that only a war can provide.

This isn’t the first time Ukraine has “blown up.”  Here’s the list:

Khmelnytsky Uprising (1648–1657)
Ukrainian War of Independence (1917–1921)
Declaration of Independence of Ukraine (1941)
Orange Revolution (2004–2005)

Meantime, our news analyst fellow up in Winnipeg as be following the tweet storm which accompanies headlines like that other Russia/West showdown hotspot Syria…

The enemy is at the gates. While perhaps a discouraged activity at a dining hour, Twitter browsers can digest the musings of a Western jihadist in Syria, @Fulan2Weet, Sadly there are many more of them. Questions may be answered at the Latvian-based website Ask dot fm/Fulan2Weet. Commentary from @VancouverExpat (“revolution until victory”) is maybe no less disquieting. Should the traitors in the field defeat actuarial odds and return home, one could well imagine their Sunni disposition being clouded by others not conforming to the “faith”. Time to consider thoughtful reaction, but perhaps not time to waste?

Regards,

Of course, who the enemy is depends on which side of the gates you happen to be on  – in which West/Russia showdown country – and whether your promise of power is coming from the EU megalomaniacs or the think-they’re-smarter-than-Putin folks in Washington.

When we get past this weekend, and Sochi wraps up, look for things to really heat up.  And one of our designated smart guys says the market collapse date is March 10, which is a Monday.

Meantime,  Robin Handler, who publishes the Options Signal Service,  penned a pretty good observation in his overnight report  (“Another Red Flag” here) that looks at the scary language shifting about and spilling into financial stories now.

We’ve been using language (and cycles off the Fine Structure Constant to make predictions like the pending terrorist attack that came true in Nigeria with an attack this week that killed 47. Overshadowed by events in Ukraine, but only for now.

Read More

At last!  We arrive in a week which is just about perfect.  I have a birthday, the Presidents have an event in my honor (well, sort of) and we don’t have to work “five for the Man.”  Oh, and as a bonus we get all kinds of economic data, which is interesting because we will again see how audacious the hype about “recovery” is.

The core problem in the word is we humans are running out of jobs.  Which is why the US labor participation rate (through current data) continues to decline.

There are plenty of reasons for it:  More stay at home moms, the LBGT movement, job-jacking and offshoring, and the BIG ONE that no one is ready for:  Massive workplace automation and the replacement of humans by machines.

Against this backdrop “White House touts stimulus as Americans see ‘unemployment’ as nation’s new top challenge…”

The reason this is so HUGE is that all modern democracies are based on the idea of people “must do things” in order to “get paid” and this is what the worldview is based on.  We don’t reward good…we reward…well….work product. 

Unfortunately, most people are sleeping through the coming “End of Work” that I’ve been writing about for years for Peoplenomics readers.  And it’s starting to spread.  Kick-ass article over at ReadWrite this morning talks about the revolution coming in 3D printing that will allow a super-sized machine to “print” a 2500 square foot home in just 24-hours.

So much for the remnants of the building trades, huh?

Still, there are few people who grok the whole disruptive technology thing.  In fact the Defense Advanced Projects Agency (DARPA, the folks where the Internet came from, not Al Gore, remember then?)   has set up a Disruptive Technology Office because people in the intelligence community at least have the inkling of massive change.

The problem  at least so far  is that most companies and almost no people have no plan how to deal.

Let’s roll back the clock and pretend it was 1990.  How many companies outside of silly-con valley had a long-term strategy for web dominance?  Oh, about zero, give or take.

Inertia and change-resistance kills.  Except if you thought change from networked computing was something, you ain’t seen nothing yet.  Wait till I can email you a steak to be printed and eaten.  Then you’ll maybe get the idea.  Ever think through what happens when every grocery store in American just ‘prints’ your order?  Stockers, clerks…oh my head hurts!

While we wait…and it shouldn’t take more than 10-20 years for the 3D wave to crush everything in its path…we will have lots of research to ponder this week.

The Consumer Prices are due on Thursday. In case you haven’t noticed, groceries are going up.  It’s become so obvious that outfits like CBS are noticing how  grocery costs go up as incomes stand still.

Tomorrow, there are Producer Prices, which used to give a pretty good indication of what kind of inflation was in the pipeline.  However, most economic press releases have been jiggered, corrected, seasonally adjusted, and basted with a creamy lemon-pepper marinade, that they don’t mean much of anything anymore. 

Even the stalwart Consumer Prices don’t use the same meats, the same veggies or any of that so our food prices today are very much like comparing apples and oranges.  The statisticians will tell you that is because hedonic pricing is real, people change their consumption based on new information (fad diets, high veggies, low carb, low veggie high protein…you see them come and go) and so the statistician can make up damn near anything and sell it.

Which gets us around to this morning’s first dart:  The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing report.

A few words from it….

“The February 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business conditions improved marginally for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index fell eight points, but remained positive at 4.5. The new orders index fell to about zero, indicating that orders were flat, and the shipments index declined thirteen points to 2.1. The unfilled orders index remained negative at -6.3. The prices paid index fell twelve points to 25.0, pointing to a slowing pace of input price increases, while the prices received index climbed two points to 15.0, suggesting a faster pace of selling price increases. Employment indexes were little changed, indicating a modest increase in employment levels and slightly longer workweeks. Indexes for the six-month outlook continued to convey fairly robust optimism about future conditions, even as the capital spending index fell ten points to 2.5, a multiyear low.”

And the further details are over here.

So with this to look forward to, the market is expected to be cautious, though it’s not this week we’re worried about.

Of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention how the Japanese Yen dropped overnight and how this means Japan is in the same “print at all costs most” to keep deflation at bay.

What the central bankster class doesn’t want you to know is that global synchronized inflation to offset pernicious deflation and Global Depression is the only game in play that matters. It’s why the metals have been strengthening.  Still, one more good leg down is likely later on this year when deflation kicks up as housing softens again, but one day, one month, one year and one report at a time.

Dow is about flat…metals too….looks like a Monday but it’s really a Tuesday…

Dead Banker Tracking

Report of a jumper off the roof (18 stories up) off a building in Hong Kong this morning where a bank is located.  Another banker death?  Don’t know that yet…

More after this…

7 Days to ????

It’s NEXT WEEK when the Sochi Games wrap up and Russia can begin to flex its muscles against the Western bid to steal Ukraine from the Russian fold.  And, since a good offense is one fine defense, look for blow ups in places like Iran or Syria.

And, in case you didn’t notice, Iran is now saying that Russia could build (another) reactor in exchange for yet more oil.

This is something that will leave the EU fit to be tied because Russia is already within sprinting distance of achieving energy independence.  It’s Europe which has been pretty well cleaned out of energy resources and they, in turn, have been talking very much an aggressive line against Russia of late.

When you read headlines like “Two former members of Pussy Riot detained in Sochi, Russia” just remember it’s not about rock & roll with a message.

Greed – and the demands of the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars – demand that the US/West go hard after Russia because there are only so many places where there are resources worth fighting over.  One of those places is Russia and the megalomaniacs of the EU have (*stupidly) tipped their hand early.

Putin gets it…and busting Pussy Riot (and some ex’es now) is a clue about how serious he’s going to play.

By the way, in light of the failed Syria peace talks in Geneva, pay attention when Israel’s prime minister says Iran is the only winner from nuke talks with Russia.  The fates of Syria and Iran are tightly bound, since Syria is a forward aircraft radar post for Iran and Israel is always looking to the north-northeast…

Waiting for the World To End?

A bunch of minor earthquakes…including one in the Southern Caribbean area… 6.5 down off Barbados.  But after that you’re down into the 5.6 and lower noise floor. So, if you were expecting a report that the world is about to end to keep you from having to head in to work today, time to shower and get a move on.

Sorry…but there was one glimmer this weekend as a huge asteroid zipped by.  But only a near miss so it doesn’t get you out of getting your taxes filed, either, does it?

Still Winter

And so, yes, it is still snowing some places.  79F here at the ranch yesterday.  Here come the bugs and snakes… I’d take cold weather, a hot drink, and whatever’s behind curtain #2 any damn time.

Get Al Gore on the Line!

Tell him Antarctic Sea Ice Extent still 25% above normal.

Global charlatans, you think?  How about a website charlatans.gov?  Gimme a break…

New York Rebellion?

Gee, I thought the Texas independence movement was an outlier.  Here comes a secessionist movement in New York.

It does get us to thinking about city-states….and other candidates might include Rahm’s Chicago and whatever you want to call that area south of the Grape Vine.  Lost Angles or something like that…

Air Traffic Hiring

Scary headline at WorldNetDaily this morning “FAA: ‘No Experience Necessary’ for air traffic control” isn’t exactly how it works.

Yes, anyone can apply and many will get hired, but the real deal is that the FAA has warmed to the idea of flight following for private aircraft and it enhances safety of the whole system.  And Houston departure is not putting someone on a radar who just walked in off the street on a console. 

The training is rigorous and very demanding.  The story is true, but the impression if might leave?  Well, that’s something else again. 

Conversations like…

“November 7912 Lima, radar contact  4 miles northeast of the Palestine airport, Squawk 6723 and ident.

Read More

Jeez-Louise…this could be the shortest column ever.

US markets, banks and whatever’s have today off for President’s Day.

The end.  Have a nice day.

Just kidding.  there’s all kinds of crap going on in the background, but we thought we’d dispense with the usual high falutin economic BS and get a little more real today. 

Not without first doing the overnight scores, however:  Japan was up half a percent, China up a full percent, England is up 1%, while German and French gains are minimal.  And gold is still on its way up to the $1,400 bounce target while bitcoins have rallied a bit.

There.  This being a holiday, I won’t take a cynical pill.  I’ll take two tomorrow, however.

Earth Changes

Now, on to what matters:  Three hots and a cot.

There’s an article this morning over on Wired about the “Ephemeral nature of magma prior to eruption” which I’ve made a note to send to our Indonesia Bureau Chief Bernard Grover who sends this pithy report on conditions in the vicinity of the latest volcanic mess:

Hiya chief!

We’re getting a major ash kicking here, if I can indulge in a cheap pun, from Gunung Kelud, located in east Java.  The seasonal easterlies are carrying significant ashfall as far as Jakarta.  We got a good dusting Friday and the air quality was worse than bad.  Up at the mountain house yesterday, you might have thought it had snowed a bit if you squinted just right.  Rooftops and cars were coated with ash, and the usually clear mountain air was very hazy.  One result is much cooler temps.  Here in Jakarta, the mornings are actually pleasant, if just a little on the damp side.  Up in the mountains, it was down-right cold last night.  Not entirely unheard of, but much more than usual.  The haze was too heavy for me to see the steam plume from Gunung Gede (20km from the mountain house), so couldn’t tell if she is stirring (for the first time in 700 years).

As far east as Bandung (about an hour and a half west of Jakarta), airports were closed and the largest refinery in Java, at Cilacap, is shut down, which will likely play hell with gas prices and LPG supplies for a while.  The body count so far is 5, with about 100,000 folks displaced.  Word is that things have calmed a bit in the last 24 hours, but that’s no guarantee of a return to normalcy.  Look for an increase in lung-related problems.  I’m wearing a filter mask outdoors, in any event.

In the past few months, Tankuban Perahu south of Bandung has been rumbling.  Also, the weird situation at Banten – the sea has gone out as much as 2 km for more than a week now – suggests that something is rising, rather than sea levels falling.  That area happens to be in eye-shot of Anak Kerakatau, by the way.

No major shakes around these parts lately, but plenty of the tiny suckers that tingle the spine of those of us who aren’t used to the ground moving.

From the land of liquid rock and ash blizzards,

Bernard

Meantime, we keep thinking that this is going to be one of those “years without a summer” because of all the volcanic activity of late.  So against this background (of common sense thinking) go ahead and flip over to the NY Times which is maintaining impartiality with the headline “Science linking Drought to Global Warming remains matter of dispute.”

Not to SecState John Kerry, I’m afraid.  He’s still pimping global warming on his current Asia road trip.  Yep, in case you missed it, the globalclimatists are now claiming “extreme weather” as their code word of the day. 

While the US is having a cool winter (which is what winters are, last time I checked) we can’t help but notice that even in Oman’s capital Muscat it’s a wintry high of 13C today.

Oh, and one other earth note:  No luck for the hide under the bed with the dust bunnies crowd…you know the ones: Predicting BIG QUAKE soon.  Sorry, no cigar yet.  6.9 last week in China and northing since over a 5.8.

Squaring Off in Asia

Our military affairs/wargamer pal, warhammer, has been keeping an eye on the coming fight for oil rights in the South China Sea…

George,

Usually a key diplomat or lofty politician will make public statements regarding U.S. treaty obligations.

The fact that the sitting Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Greenert, would do the deed by assuring the Philippines that America will support our treaty obligations to prevent Chinese bullying in the oil rich S. China Sea, is interesting from a number of perspectives.

Read More

Maybe you haven’t been watching closely, but read Ure’s lips:  Food (and its sidekick water) are the ONLY issue that we need to be worrying about in the intermediate term.  Oh, sure, you can debate endlessly the pros and cons of Hillary versus Cruz, but that would be yesterday’s problem.  The “art of the deal” around here is being ahead of, not behind, the curve.

So I pass along this from Oilman2…

Europe was inundated with flooding 18 months back – poor crop yield.

We have beef prices soaring, even at fast food places things are moving up in price – grocery stores even faster.

California is in huge drought, and even if it rains reservoirs are not going to be filled this year.

Now one of the most productive agricultures in South America is getting hit, officially, although friends working there have been saying it’s bad.

You need to tell your investor types to have a look at crop futures….and the other no-investor types to buy up on food now, before the price crush hits. Ask Gaye if she is seeing this out her way, or others?

I am changing modes, after paying $9.41 for a double whataburger, fries and a drink up your way today. That’s up 33% from last spring – found receipt for same meal from April when cleaning out Yota today – was $6.57 then.

Oilman2 family is officially packing breakfast and lunch when going farming for the foreseeable future. And I am laying into buying and canning up this springs crop too…

Nice going on the What-A-Burger – their website is over here – and, curiously enough, OM2 and I both spent time Sunday in the local Lowes and What-a-Burger.  I had a triple meat, which is why mine was a little more expensive.

It may seem paradoxical to you, but both OM2 and I have a keen appreciation for something called the “planner’s paradox” (that puke orange drawing).

The way this work is simple:  If you drop something, the shorter term future you’re looking at, the more certain you can be of your predictions.

When my free-falling son flips himself out of an airplane at 13.5 in one of his “horny gorilla” skydiving exits, he’s pretty sure that he will accelerate to terminal velocity at something like 32 feet per second per second before friction coefficients kick in and the rate of change diminishes as he come up on terminal drop speed.

On the other hand, if you were a good little sheep and saved a $100 bill into the bank, your would have how much today?

Read More

Valentines Day, snowed in?  Looking for hot economic news?  Other than our discussion of bitcoin being in the crapper in the Coping section this morning, about the most exciting them to anticipate will be Miller time, today. And then whatever you have lined up following that. 

This is one of the few days of the year ugly people can celebrate…think of all the money they’re saving by not having plans and spendy relationships.  Singlehood is cheap, except on the rent side.

One other seasonal note:  My friends who don’t have kids have present net worths about $1-million more than my friends with kids…who by comparison are mostly destitute.  Thank healthcare and college. Facts is fact, though: vet bills are cheaper than healthcare bills. And I haven’t seen a dog yet that goes through orthodontia.

”So Mr. Cheerful, what else you got for the cornflake review, you being the flake and dishing out corn like this?” you’re wondering.

Other the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers, check the Fed stats page around 9:20 Eastern if you care, there’s snow falling in the northeast and it’s still winter.  Like that’s a shocker. 

And Global Warming is going to take another hit with all those volcanoes down in Indonesia spouting off.  Doubt it will stop the rumored plan to dump poison into the atmosphere at 80-thousand feet from a balloon…the geoengineering people are gonna kill us all to save us all seems to be the thinking.  Ma Nature will beat ‘em, it looks like.

Terrorism Alert/Left Field Watching

“So what was with the Heads Up on the Nostracodeus website all about, then?”

Oh…that… well, seeing as you asked…

Remember the Westgate Mall attack in Nigeria back on September 21, 2013?  Wikipedia summary:

On 21 September 2013, unidentified gunmen attacked the upmarket Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi, Kenya. The attack, which lasted until 24 September, resulted in at least 72 deaths, including 61 civilians, 6 Kenyan soldiers, and 5 attackers. Over 200 people were reportedly wounded in the mass shooting, with all of the gunmen reported killed. However, an investigation on the incident conducted by the NYPD suggested that the attack had been carried out by only four perpetrators, all of whom had likely escaped.

Well, as I’ve told you, we’re in a kind of “high danger window” since there are certain patterns that pop out of word frequency analysis of news on the internet, one of which is a very soft tendency of data to come around in a cyclical manner that seems somehow related to the fine-structure constant.

“The what?”

Keep up… Wiki it

In physics, the fine-structure constant, commonly denoted ?, is a fundamental physical constant, namely the coupling constant characterizing the strength of the electromagnetic interaction. Being a dimensionless quantity, it has the same numerical value in all systems of units.

Read More

The other day – Tuesday being the other day in question – I had a little heart-to-heart with you about using a disciplined approach to bitcoins and how the use of charts, and Elliott Wave projections in particular – was a particularly good way to “bound” expectations about the future.  It doesn’t always work, but it beats two tokes and a dart a lot of the time.

So here we are three trading days later and I think we can safely revise our thinking now because the two bullish cases being presented have warrants out for “failure to appears” to put it in legalese.

The two choices before us are the stasis/decline (lower) under which the price of bitcoins drops back down to the baseline price region.  Or, under the Elliott thinking, the decline is turning into a third wave down and this morning’s data is just the start of The Bitcoin Uglies.

First the Good News:  Under the stasis model (I was asleep when I drew the charts, so ignore the misspelling), the first outcome to consider is that the decline now underway will take bitcoins down to about the Wave 1 down low.  The problem is?  That’s going to vary, depending on which bitcoin clearing outfit you want to look at when you go quoting prices.

And there’s good debate here:  Some coiners are likely to quote Mt. Gox but others will “go with the flow” [failing to notice that’s the flow of hype] and will use (for their purposes of citing the bullish case) to the highest prices quoted.  Beware those who change data sources when they don’t like the numbers!  That’s like quoting the Dow on the way up and the NASDAQ on the way down:  Intellectual dishonesty is a bitch.

Unfortunately, coiners may simply be recreating how the (already corrupt) world of nominal/real currencies works:  They ought to all be buying all the coins they can from Mt. Gox (where they are cheap) and then selling them for a good spread on higher priced coin clearing operations where the prices are higher.

Welcome to the world of intermarket arbitrage.   Under this model, the Bitcoin price would have to fall to about $550 (bitstampUSD basis).

Except, (putting on my Lt. Columbo voice (you do own the series on DVD, right?)  “Ders diss one ting dat bothers me, Sir…”

If bitcoins were going to stop at the $550 level, they ought to do it, more or less, across all bitcoin houses.  And they haven’t stopped….which gets us to the next (and seemingly more likely) scenario:

Third waves are generally bigger than first waves.  Under Elliott, the third wave must be at least as large as the first wave down which means, depending on which chart you look at, things could get worse – of far worse – depending on how much mental rigor you apply.  And if you skipped your meds this morning.

OK, stopping at $550 is the extremely optimistic (under Elliott) decline scenario.  Most often, however, the Wave 3 declines are in the area of 1.5 to 1.618 times Wave 1 down.

Two charts will help us range the outcome.,  These are both available at www.bitcoincharts.com./

The first chart to consider is the 6-month average price quote “bitstampUSD”.  In  this chart, it looks like Wave 1 down was from about $1,150 down to around $550.  That’s a $600 dollar decline decline.

Given that the Wave 2 rally was up to $925, this suggests that a minimum $325 may be in the works.

However,  remember that the more typical declines are in that 1.618 times area.  So a 600 decline becomes (at 1.618 times Wave 1)  a $970 decline.

And, given that the top of wave two was 925, this suggests that there’s a chance the value of crypto currencies (at least on some exchanges) could go to zero, since Wave 2’s high ($925) minus the possible decline ($970) leaves us a negative number which would mean the end of bitcoins.

Not that it would be unexpected.

Thus, within a month, or three, we might see reports of various bitcoin clearing operations going bankrupt or shutting down.  Others may survive.

Ures truly has been consistently warning, in the face of much derision, that there are no barriers to entry into creating new digital currencies.  In fact, when I read about Max Keiser’s plans for a “Max Coin” I laughed at some length and began to gin up an UrbanSurvival currency to be named in honor of my editor in chief Zeus the Cat.   I was going to call ‘em ZeusCoins.

ZeusCoins would have as much inherent values as any other cryptocurrency, or maybe more, since instead of “making up  “work”” to do on the internet, I was going to set up an International Dead Mouse Exchange (a take off on carbon credit trading) and make a shit-load more money than coiners. We even had a plan for dog owners to participate by buying rat terriers and sending them out to “mine” their local neighborhoods.  Made as much sense as sending a PC to do stuff on the Internet, I figured.  But I digress. 

(Though I want to go on about the virtues of mouse tails, which can’t be copies with computers, and we were working with all the major 3D meat printer companies to ensure no one could scan and 3D print faux mouse tails as a hack.  In fact, our anti-mouse tail scanning code is already deployed, so go ahead, try and 3D print a mousetail and I’m sure you’re find our micro encrypted serial numbers.  Just like when you color scan a dollar bill.  Seriously!  [Or  nearly so…])

Alt. Outcome:  You need to go over to the Mt. Gox trading charts (thankyou again BitCoinCharts) and see how Mt. Gox overnight 6-month charts look and see how a recent quote on Bitcoins there was down to $378.5.

Again, lesson in Elliott basis the Mt. Gox data:  High around $1,180 – high for Wave 1 up.

Then a decline to $580, or so for the bottom of Wave 1 down. 

That ($1,180-$580) is our $600 decline.

Now, the Wave 2 high (the bounce) was up to about $1,050, call it. 

So the expectation table would pencil out something like this:

100% of Wave 1 decline = $450.   <— off the table, we blew through that]

150% of Wave 1 decline = $150   (a 50-50 chance of this?)

161.8% of Wave 1 decline = $79.50 (25% chance of this?)

The rest of the odds?  Well, sometimes, declines go 2.5 or 2.618 times and even more rarely 3.5+ times the original price decline.  In which case, we should be reading about our first digital currency collapse in short order (3-6 months, say).

Or, the $79.50 level might be reached (or the $150 level), concurrent with the announcement of a major bitcoin clearing operation declaring bankruptcy.  In a way, this is really the preferred option, because it would leave the concept intact, sort of like Iraqi Dinars are still around waiting for the next run-up.  ZeusCoins would be back on the table and MaxCoins might take over from Federal Reserve Notes, yet.  But I’m not exactly holding my breath.  Know why?

The guiding case for all this is the long wave economics study of Tulip Mania, which peaked in Holland in the 1630’s.  Then, a single stinking tulip bulb was trading for the price of a home.  Yeah, “How could people be so stupid?” you’re wondering…

Look around, dammit:  See who’s in office?  See the world we live in?  Have you thought about treatment options?

Open Ure eyes, get a little more disciplined in your approach to reality; vape less, discipline the brain more, and let the numbers rule. They will, whether you agree, or not.  There ain’t no bullshitting human nature…it’s the same now as it was in Holland back when.  Ain’t no free lunch.  There’s markets, there’s bubbles.  Housing?  Internet?  Now Bitcoins….seeing a pattern?

It’ll be no comfort to me or my friends in coming weeks if our grim outlook for bitcoins comes to pass, but George Santayana said it best:

“Those who do not remember the past, are condemned to repeat it.”

Don’t be too hard on yourself, though.  A tradesman in Tulipmania times made about 300 guilders per year.  Prices of bulbs back then peaked well over 4,500 guilders – ten years wages for a working man.

That’s just how bubbles work.  Pat, present, and future.

Global Warming Follow-Up

Reader Curtis is da man….has the right thinking on how to approach this global warming question:

Hey George, I’ve got an idea you might enjoy.

Read More

All kinds of people are likely to be disappointed by the morning’s financial developments.  I mean besides the median price of Bitcoins at Mt. Gox showing $514.50 although other places are showing a more optimistic $647.

No, we have larger (and more mainstream) fish to fry.

For one thing, Asia, which has been playing its Lazarus role (rising from the dead, you getting this?) seems to have suffered a relapse overnight.  Japan was whacked for a 1.8% loss that pounded the Nikkei down to 14,534.75 while the behemoth China was thrown for a 0.54% loss, but hasn’t completely given up the ghost yet.

Which then circles us around to Europe where, when I looked early, the kneelers were being tossed for a 41-point loss on the Footsie, the Huns were down 27 points (and probably still pissed that the US can’t deliver all their gold they entrusted us with, but that’ll show ‘em who’s boss, right?) and the French weren’t exactly toasting, being down almost 14 points.

Which brings us to this morning’s early look at the futures here, which suggested a Dow down 60, or so.

But that’s only the start.  It’s a long ways to Friday;s close,  And with that as foreplay (which I was never very good at, not being patient and all) along to this morning’s Number du Jour:  Retail Sales just out.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $427.8 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the
previous month, but 2.6 percent (±0.9%) above January 2013. Total sales for the November 2013 through January 2014 period were up 3.4
percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2013 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent (±0.5%)*
to -0.1 percent (±0.3%)*.
Retail trade sales were down 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from December 2013, but 2.6 percent (± 1.1%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up
6.5 percent (±2.3%) from January 2013 and auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 4.1 percent (±3.2%) from last year.

You go ponder what a nonstore retailer is for me, would you?  Is that like eBay Motors, or what?

All of which would be fine except that the reality of the non-recovery just keeps leaking out all over the place.

For one thing, as measured by the Fed’s M2, there was 5.3% more money sloshing around the country this December compared with ghost of retail sales past.  (I didn’t make this up, and I modestly left out the 8.2% increase in M1 sloshing about.)

And as that little chart on the right says (IF you take the time to look at it with the brain engaged) the ONLY thing that is keeping the economy out of the double dip recessions I told you to expect was auto sales.

And as our way of thanking the Auto Industry for saving America again, I plan drive by a dealership this week.

There will be some additional numbers out tomorrow in the form of import (ant) prices and the Fed’s industrial production and capacity numbers.  But fundamentally, the market is trying to figure out what to do with what I’ve been writing about for months now:  The arrival of Ure’s Vortex.

That’s when America (and the whole world, but let’s stick with the US because it is all about us, right?) will have to come to terms with some ugly realities:

• We have a lame duck president
• The people lining up as possible successors are also mostly lame
• Robots are coming to take all our jobs and Google’s self-driving car should scare the shit out of you.
• Resource depletion is real
• Abiotic oil can in no way keep up with thirsty world.
• There is deflation in the wings and…
• We can’t seem to figure out what to make with all these people and factories, except war…since no one seems to remember our Peoplenomics report on Dr. Ron’s Leisure Class and a society of consumers who are hell bent on tourism and fine living ain’t something the powers that be want to share.

All of which will go (toilet-flushing vortex like) down sucking the economy with it, until some geniuses figure out (near the exact bottom of the Long Wave low) that the best way to get bootstrapped up is by even more inflation – like never before, and – long as we’re at it – let’s have a war.

Speaking of which, some reader took me to task and said he’d never read another column of mine because he figured that I’m pro war.  Sent me a poison-troll note hoping my kids would be on the front line.

Well, a couple of points, just so we’re clear (and don’t let the door slam you on the ass on the way out):  First,  I am not in favor of war.  Killing people isn’t fun and it’s messy.  BUT second (and the point this former reader didn’t get, which is why he’s a former reader now bound for lower IQ-oriented reading) is that ALL THE DATA SAYS WAR FOLLOWS DEPRESSIONS.

Now I can stand here on the shoreline and scream at the tide of human history all day along and be a bleeding heart liberal.  Or, I can look at the facts, admit “Say!  This doesn’t all end pretty, does it?” and get on with life in the meantime.  Planning a few hedges along the way, including not hanging around major population centers and becoming as close to self-sufficient as I can.

And being ready at a moments notice to get the kids on  airplanes, busses, or even horseback to come down to our place at the end of civilization to chill while the world flushes itself.  You missed yesterday’s Peoplenomics on the mess of 1342-1345 and the 100-Years War that followed.  Your bad.

It’s not a matter of IF humanity is going to screw up again, only this time in much nearer world-ending ways.  We have a few hundred thousand years of history that argue this is how the gene pool gets cleaned out and only aggressive, self-interested and violent people rise to positions of power.

And for those of us who aren’t?  Well, we can parallel-trade the bad guys and make a few bucks for the kitty in the middle of the flush, can we not?

Only a fool would look at the fan (spinning so fast you can’t see the blades) and assume they are not there.  Painful surprise, trust me.

Similarly, only a fool would read the daily news and not notice a peculiar (and none-too-pleasant) odor and wonder  “Gee, what happens next?”

If may not happen fast, today, or next week, but long wave economics argues that cyclical destruction of ‘life as you knew it” is baked in the cake with the interest-nearing models. 

Anyone ever done a study of whether business cycles happen under Sharia banking?  Another research project is born.

One of my designated smart-guy friends (Stephen R) sent me a very good note and chart on where things are going: “Russell 2000  Fast Stochastic (blue line) versus Slow Stochastic (red line) (Say get out of Stock Market) Picture is the same for the Dow Jones and NYSE.”

And while you’re at it, have you given any thought to getting out of Dodge, too?

The Dow looks to open down almost a hundred and my gut (going against my own trading model) makes me feel like a gunslinger, for sure.  (Or it proves I’m an idiot, all things in time…)

Oh look!  Futures are down a hundred now.

More fun, merriment, and nasal entertainment  after this…

Buyers and Sellers

Big Story in the Wall St. Journal this morning about how Comcast has agreed to buy Time Warner cable for $45-billion smackeroos.

Despite my high-powered consulting operation, somehow they overlooked calling me – either side.  Which is a damn shame because whether this merger makes sense comes down to one ugly/nasty:  Technology shift.

Everyone know that the future is fiber – I mean that’s be just obvious as hell for how long?  Forever?

So, with the local telcos laying in fiber, and with lambdas coming to the desktop, seems to me that the company that groks the impact of more fiber, more fiber, repeat after me, “More FIBER!” best is the one that you should invest in.

Unless someone is going to start buying up telcos with their money in order to start owning more backbone…. Hmmm…

Iran’s Getting Nervous Again

In case you’ve missed “the big game” here, it’s that the Israelis are patiently waiting to see what compliance levels will come from Iran as a result of the nuclear deal.

Read More

My head’s beginning to hurt again.  This whole topic is like a cross between an Excedrin headache and the Energizer Bunny – it hurts like hell and it just keeps running, and running, and…..

So here’s this email from Oilman2 to launch with the first cup of bean:

Global Warming – pander no longer… unless it is generating you lots of profits…

[ Link to Dr. Roy Spencer’s site “95% of Climate Models Agree: The observations must be wrong! ]

Remember that I once told you that the entire industrial revolution is as thin as the hair on a gnats ass when looking at geologic timeline??  Remember me telling you we had 20+% more CO2 in the Permian and more still Carboniferous periods??

George, remember your adage, like Occams Razor…??
“Everything is a business model”

I think the science is unraveling the hype at lots of levels, but especially when the UN starts backing away.  Time, I think, that you took a stand. Just back it up with good links about the solar condition, its effects on our other planets and sites like the one above.

Unless it will lose readers…??  But I think it will actually gain some, with an article like, “Climate Change: Who Is Making the Money?” or “What Will Institutions and Goverments Do When People Refuse to Believe Pseudo-science?”

Oilman2

Well, we already know some of the answers to that.  We know Al Gore, for example, would have to cobble up a different speech for the rubber chicken circuit without the marketing angle of warming.  We know that Agenda 21 and the move by non-representative government to keep the public off public lands has skin in the game.  And we know that carbon trading is like swapping wife-beating credits. Or husband-beating credits, to keep the analogy egalitarian…

It’s like the old joke around Wall Street:  “So, where are the customer’s yachts?”  Guffaws among the rich follow….

Obviously, Global Warming is a marketing deal, but then look around you and ask “What isn’t?”

Yesterday’s Peoplenomics discussion about why studying earthquakes is important if you want to understand financial markets is related to the issues raised by global warming.  Except in a different sense.

You need to go back to the classic Report from Iron Mountain ( On the accessibility and Desirability of Peace)  to come up with the real driver:  People only accept the “rules of government” if there are some damn good reasons to.

Although Leonard Lewin’s book was widely discredited as a hoax for pointing this out, there’s another group that believes Lewin may have changed the names and places around, but as to the ideas?  Nope…they’ve stood up to the test of time really damn well.

Read More