And You’re Stressed?

The Federal Reserve is out with it’s Dodd-Frank required 2014 Stress Test results, and if your idea of a good time is poring over 162 pages of financial minutia, this is a real page-turner.  In fairness, reading about how horrific things could be in a worst-case is not exactly boring, but it doesn’t rank with Friday date-night or sushi, for example.

Still, the bottom line is that in a “worst case” scenario for the economy, the losses at the largest banks would be in the area of $500 billion, or about 3.13% of the GDP if we were in the $16-trillion range going into things.

And it’s under this kind of scenario that the US could seer stocks slip back down toward the 2009 levels if the decline were to begin shortly.

Which is not to say that it will…these are just estimates and financial models which people with heavy math degrees generate while they wait for the next release of CoD or whatever.

Markets: Waffling and Wobbling

There was a decent rally in China overnight (+1.2%) but balancing that off was another loss in Japan (-1.65%)

Europe, where I think clinical trials on a new stupidity drug are going poorly, continues to rally going into the US open (of markets, not golf, of course). 

The US futures are likely to tack on another 25 at the open, but it may not hold late in the day since the weekend arrival could be news when markets are closed and only the most ballsy traders would hang though things.

Technically, the S&P is only about 10-points from a new 52-week high and that could happen quickly.  But it it doesn’t, then a further decline will be “game on.”

SocialRev Defense?  Turning Off Tweets

We are closely watching events in Turkey this morning because the government there has pulled the plug on Twitter because there were so many people commenting on the government’s internal corruption which is going viral.

Given the role of Social in Revolution of late, it’s probably a justified fear, but the net being what it is (with millions of very clever people) the workarounds should come shortly.  And then we’ll see if the SocialRev texting leads to the expected outcome.  (Friday’s musical hint is here)

Done Deal

Vlad Putin signed the Duma resolution taking back Crimea.

Lesson:  Their congress is faster than our congress, maybe?

Police State Notes

“Hawaii law lets police have sex with prostitutes.”   Dat’s sum recruiting program, yah got der bud…

And I know you’re going to find the Jonathan Turley column “Kansas Legislation Would Allow Police To Charge Citizens Who Bring Abuse Charges Against Officers When The Charges Are Dismissed . . .

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Coping: With Screwing the Middle Class and SocialRev

I was going to mention in my conversation with George Noory Wednesday night that the more important time you can spend is the hour a week you gather up a few notes on trends in the news and reflect on how they are likely to impact your life and what you can do about it.

I get letters all the time from people who are worked their butts off and been screwed over by the “New America Business Model.”  Here’s a perfect example:

Quick and short-
husband self employed
had business line of credit with Bank of X since 1998.
Never late, never over limit, always paid on time and more than minimums
Two years ago, Bank of X says that they have determined we have too much overall debt
(we really didn’t)
and Bank of X turned line of credit into a term loan
increasing interest rate from 9.9% to 23.99%
AND
increasing payment from $1,900/mo
to $4,900.
They wouldn’t talk to us or even try to negotiate something- just said this is the way it is.
Of course, once this one change hit the credit reporting scam companies,
EVERY lender raised our interest rates and thereby increased our monthly payments.
It was a domino effect we had
ABSOLUTELY NO CONTROL OVER.
Now tell me, how can the average small business owner continue?
We tried and tried – went through our meager IRAs to keep business afloat and employees paid and
cover ours and their health insurance.
But, with the cost of everything going up,
vendors paying late, a
and everything else that goes with  small business ownership-
Well, we had to lay off our 4 employees (and of course, no longer paid for their health insurance once they left), and
then we were hit by two separate medical emergencies and after the deductibles and co-pays, we owed about $18,000 (this, of course, is in addition to the outrageous monthly insurance premium of $1,600 for my husband and myself (we are close to Medicare but not there yet))-
bottom line
we had to declare bankruptcy.
American way of life – have no clue –
ask the thieving banksters who are worse than loan sharks.
Oh, and btw,
my husband and I haven’t had even a weekend getaway let alone a ‘real vacation’ since the late 90’s. Our vehicles are 10 and 14 years old; our home is under 1,900 sf and not new, we go out to a restaurant (nothing fancy, maybe Olive Garden) 2x year, have no hobbies that require anything besides a pair of walking shoes, our clothes are either thrift shop or places like WalMart (hate to admit that I patronize that company) or Target, so forth and so on.  In other words, nothing expensive or extravagant. 
And, the company he worked for during the 70’s and 80’s went bankrupt and there is no retirement/pension. 
Yes, life sucks sometimes, but all you can do is your best at whatever crap it throws at you.
Thanks for listening.
Pepper

This is one of 5those cases where “the system” just isn’t working, but there are tens of thousands more that fit this mold.

The problem is what to do about it?

And that’s why I proposed in Thursday’s discussion that there’s not really much that can be done EXCEPT encourage State Banks and Community Banks. 

The box we’re in, though, is that the big national banks, like Bank of X (BoX) have built a marvelous system of electronic integration such that if you don’t have a national bank credit card, for example, you can’t get a meal in a “foreign city” – like somewhere halfway across the country.

And THEN, if you do decide the answer is “I’ll just carry cash” then any cop who happens to pull you over for speeding, or whatever, is now empowered to seize your cash because it will be assumed in most jurisdictions that you’re somehow involved with drugs because who doesn’t have a BoX credit card?

Then there’s the fine print.  I’s made it a practice for years not to sign something that I haven’t read thoroughly and understand.  You should take the time – whenever you take out a loan for anything to be sure and read the fine print.

In most car loans, for example, there is weasel-wording that will let a bank come after your home and any other assets if your car is foreclosed on (e.g. repo’ed) and it sells at auction for less than the amount owing.  The bank will send you a bill for the “gap” unless you have “gap insurance” which is what?  Just another way to screw over the poor.

Once upon a time in finance – so long ago that I can barely remember it – the bank or finance companies looked at interest as comprising two components.

The cost of money (*the amount banks had to, in effect, pay to rent money to lend) was only one component.  The other aspect was risk of loss which could occur when a loan went “bad.”

What happened, in the 1950s when the (large corporate national banking industry) was beating back usury laws was their story that losses (in things like auto loans) could exceed 12% which was a common usury cap.

And they got it through, but not without a lot of good people Labor and communities raising hell about it.  It was somewhere back in here that “checkbook government” evolved to power.

That’s because the banking industry was much more highly organized than the labor and community activists in the day.  The game was over before it even got started.

As soon at the usury laws were upended (part of the move involved moving credit card operations to states with no interest caps including (my memory may be wrong here) South Dakota.

As soon as the caps were gone, up went the rates.  Not because of the cost of money (although it was already going up toward the long wave economic cycle 1980 interest rate peak) but because banks no longer sent a local “vice president” out to repo cars.  Taking back became and industry (and a very expensive one) which involved impound lots, repo men, lawyers, and processors of one sort of another.

And that’s how banks slid into their current role of screwing the Middle Class.

Elaine’s Pick

If you haven’t see it yet, Elaine watched former Clinton-era Labor Secretary Robert Reich who came out with a documentary called “Inequality for All”  and you can rent it, or buy it via the documentary’s website over here:  http://inequalityforall.com/

The Bill Moyers interview on point opens with Reich asking a very obvious question:

“How do you constrain capitalism from doing stupid things that are not in the public interest?”

Social media uprisings are happening all over the world.  It’s a trend and what’s going on beneath the surface is the “new masters” are fomenting revolutions in orders to seize power through electronic and propaganda means.

I’m not talking about Ukraine.  I’m talking about the places that have gone down that road (with varying success already) and those which are following this year.

Syria didn’t work out for the social revolutionaries, but Egypt did – sort of.  And so did Libya.  Places like Saudi Arabia are scared crapless by the trend.

And this week voting will wrap up in Venice, which is trying to leave Italy.  Catalonia is trying to leave Spain, and the Flemish nationalists would like to depart the belly of the beast Belgium (where the EU is headquartered).

So the Big Ponder for you this weekend is the Big Question: 

Since the Middle Class here is being screwed over, just like elsewhere, what are we to do about it?

The Millenials have one answer:  Minimalism.  Don’t spend till you make.  And that’s a message that has been delivered to school students by the likes of Warren Buffett.

Governments have different answers.  Turkey this morning tried to turn off Twitter because the country’s government fears (and rightly so) the possibility of socialrev.

Points Where Due

My friend G.A. Stewart gets a nod this morning, now that Russia is turning the G-8 into the G-7.

Stewart, who’s website The Age of Desolation ties up loose ends of Nostradamus quatrains sent me a friendly “Told you so…”:

Okay Doom and Gloomers, Conspiracy Theorists, and Prophecy Neophytes, still waiting for those predictions from Remote Viewers to come around: Solar Kill Shots, Space Goo, or Global Coastal Events? Who’s your Daddy?

Revelation 17:11
And the beast that was, and is not, even he is the eighth, and is of the seven and goeth into perdition.


…The Second Son is the Eastern Orthodox Church and a reference in particular to Russia. As a member of the Group of Eight Nations, Russia’s cooperation with the former Group of Seven Nations may be tenuous.
…Both Nostradamus and the The Holy Bible suggest that the Group of Eight Nations will turn against one of their own.

And off on the margins, all of us who look at futuring issues are wondering if the MH370 flight is an accident or whether it somehow ties in to all of what’s coming apart…

Correction:

These are  rare, but I do make mistakes now and then: 

In my CoastToCoast interview this week, I incorrectly recalled Bill Gates family as being involved in the clean up of Lake Washington in Seattle…That was incorrect (a function of bad recall on my part…) It was Jim Ellis, not Gates Sr, although he was a key member of the downtown Seattle business groups that supported METRO’s clean-up..  It was Jim Ellis championed Seattle’s Forward Thrust campaign.

My memory is around here somewhere… I forget where I put it, though…

Friday at the WoWW

The World of Woo-Woo (WoWW) just never stops.  And there’s no better way to wrap up the week with another one of those encounters with the “strange”.

George: Read your column daily, except Wednesday of course, and I like the woww segment. Here’s a little from personal experience, well almost:

My brother and I were both deputies in a small Northern Calif town, very diverse population base. One family living there were “Arkie’s” to the max, I mean Arkansas hill people, having moved from the hills to the bright lights of our big city. Shortly after arriving, they moved into a clapboard shack that had originally been living quarters for some of the less desirable laborers(Italians, Mexicans, etc) that were employed by the towns lumber mill.

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Interplanet Janet Spooks Markets

Cue my proposed theme song for the Federal Reserve this morning….it’s that ABC.School House Rock fave “Interplanet Janet” available here on Youtube. Of course to make sense in current context, we’d have to rewrite it a bit to “Interplanet Janet she’s an interest-rate girl….” and the rest of the lyrics would need to be recast into financial terms.

Coping: Another “Revolutionary” Appears

Last week, we talked briefly about whether banking should be considered a regulated public utility, like water, sewer, and power companies, or whether we should continue under the delusion that “for profit” banking is the only model that works.

This is, of course, heresy, but we don’t mind thinking the unthinkable now and then.

Not only are there some fine examples of State banking, as in North Dakota, but there’s a groundswell beginning in Vermont as well.

Why?  Well, punitive charges, especially against the poor, are the obvious reason.

I happen to have two credit card accounts, both with no annual fee, but they both have wildly different interest rates.  It doesn’t bother me, since if I can’t just transfer and zero the card daily, we do without.  Simple budgeting and I never let the banks set its teeth in our wallets.

But just to show you how the two cards (from the same bank) work, one has a monthly rate of 6.9% and a cash advance rate of 19.24 %.  The other has a 12.99% monthly and a 24.99% cash advance rate and both have a jaw-dropping usurious 29,99% rate if payments are late.  I haven’t paid a dime in interest charges (and never venalities) in years.

The cheaper card doesn’t offer “points” while the more expensive one (if I was dumb enough not to pay on time) does.  It’s more like giving a Band-Aid to people kicked when down.

But many people are not so lucky and so our first question of the morning is whether banks are really serving the public need, interest, and concern, when they kick people who couldn’t afford a payment with a 30% penalty.

I’ve been around enough banksters to know that they have costs…sure, they do.  But is it the right thing to do?

So now we get to the “revolutionary” thinking stuff.  An email from a reader by the name of Michael up in the Pacific Northwest:

Greetings George,

Several years ago in a post, you alluded to an effort in the Washington State legislature to limit credit card interest rates for Washington residents. You mentioned that the effort was scuttled.  I am considering starting a Washington state ballot initiative to bring that about, and doing so in a manner that might serve as a model for other states.

In proceeding upon this, of course I am doing research.  Learning more about what transpired in Washington would be helpful. Would you be willing to share more about that by email or a phone conversation?

Back in the “old days”  Washington state (and lots of others) had usury laws on the books.

Thanks to a weird tweak in the War On Terror, to even bring up fighting usury  is framed as taking up with Sharia banking…which it’s not.  And even the most ardent supporter of kicking people when they are down (with 30% penalty rates) does seem to run counter to Biblical accounts of running money-changers out of the temple.

One of the champions (think 40-years ago) was the Washington State Labor Council and their late president Joe Davis.  The University of Washington has old documents going back into the late 1950’s available to researchers.

What we eventually come around to is this:  When the banks are borrowing at under one percent, shouldn’t there be a cap on credit card debt that might read something like:

  • Interest on monthly purchases:  Fed Discount Rate Plus 5%
  • Penalties:  Fed Discount Rate plus 7%

That would be a fine start I would think, but bankers will howl and run around as though a rapist is on the loose when such ideas come up.

And so we get the second choice out, which is a State bank, which would operate as a cooperative (on behalf of its members) very much like a good credit union.  In Washington, I have friends and family that are very happy with Boeing Employees Credit Union (BECU) and a handful of community banks that owe their first allegiances to local customers, not a board of directors with phat salaries.  As it should be.

So thanks for the great question…and if would be a grand thing to see:  Have consumers march the banks out on the plank and give them a choice:  Reasonable fees with more due process and fees that should be a third of what they are now.  OR the choice is the plank – which is a State Bank with proper margins the good of the people – not the banker class – at heart.

Practical Thinking

One of the points that I made on my CoastToCoastAM appearance with George Noory last night was that people spend a huge amount of thing working on things that have no pay-off for them.

In other words, if you put 24-hours a day into Facebook, you may end up with more ‘Likes’ than you can shake a stick at, but can you really make money doing it?  I mean, without owning Facebook?  Ha!

And so it’s a delight to preach the gospel of “control your own inputs and control your own life…”

It’s also fun to get emails from people like reader Dan who obviously is doing just that…

Hi George.

I appreciate your expando-planet theory that links large earthquakes to solar activity but there are a few nuances that still puzzle me.  One is that I have noticed an uptick in strong earthquakes right after magnetic filaments collapse on the sun.  I only noticed this relatively recently and magnetic filament collapses are not that common so more data is certainly needed but this is something I am keeping an eye on.  As it happens, if you go over to www.spaceweather.com today you will find that there are two huge magnetic filaments facing Earth right now.  Hmmm…

The other thing I wanted to write about is in response to your peoplenomics article today where you point out how the western MSM is using language to distort the reality of what is going on.  It is completely true and I noticed it prior to the Ukraine situation – during the opening ceremonies of the Olympics, actually.  Is that then that I started to detect an anti-Russian tone from many of the reporters at the games.  I recall watching with my wife and even commenting to her how it feels like we are being trained to hate Russia again and something must be in the works.  Sure, that could have just been an anti-Russian sentiment in response to the anti-Gay stance Russia was holding.  Or maybe that was all the ‘plan’?

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Peoplenomics: The 15-Year Problem, II: Talking Points

The more I get into the “15-Year Problem” – defining how the world is likely to look that far into the future based on present trends – the more concerned I’ve become. It’ll be the discussion tonight when I’m scheduled to be on CoastToCoastAM with George Noory. However, because a lot of subscribers won’t be able to stay up that late, I’ve put together some talking point that comes the wide spectrum of change that’s barreling at us and due to arrive around 2019. As a warm up act, though, we begin as always with a few headlines and another look at our Trading Model which has continued to insist that the market was going up all through the Ukraine manic-panic of the war-pandering press. Pretty amazing how well it has done…

The Wages of Deflation

With Ukraine/Crimea on a rolling boil on the back burner this morning, we can mix our oatmeal with a healthy helping of low calorie deflation, says the monthly update on consumer prices just out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, though they somehow overlooked the oatmeal reference:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. An increase in the food index accounted for more than half of the all items increase in February.

The food index rose 0.4 percent in February, driven by a 0.5 percent increase in the index for food at home, with four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increasing.

The energy index declined, with a decrease in the gasoline index more than offsetting sharp increases in the fuel oil and natural gas indexes. The index for all items less food and energy also rose 0.1 percent in February.

An increase of 0.2 percent in the shelter index was the major contributor to the rise, but the indexes for medical care, airline fares, personal care, recreation, and new vehicles also increased. In contrast, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, used cars and trucks, and tobacco all declined in February.

The all items index increased 1.1 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to increases of 1.5 percent in December and 1.6 percent in January.

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Coping: Dogs, Cats, and “Template Monkeys”

A super-hot emotional topic this morning:  As expected, my note (in the Monday news section) about the dog mauling case in Arizona received a lot of email from dog owners, anxious to defend the pooch.  Several were quite good and some fine issues are raised.  This one is among the best:

Just a quick note about your article on the face chewing dog.

To start off with let me say that I am no fan of pitbulls.  The breed was bred for only one thing – to kill other pitbulls (or other breeds unlucky enough to fight them) in the fighting ring.  Unnatural, unacceptable and totally uncalled for.

It defies explanation as to how this breed of dog, vicious as they are, has become so iconic in our society.  Nary a weekend goes by that I don’t see someone selling pitbull puppies on a corner or across from Walmart.

I firmly believe that the breed should be erased from the canine race.

Having said that, the story you are referring to runs a little deeper than what you see on the surface.  You were out here in Arizona not long ago so I’m sure you’ve had the opportunity to hear the local news take on this story.

If not, here’s a quick synopsis.

The boy that was mauled has special needs.  Not sure what those special needs are.  News didn’t say and it’s really none of my business anyways.  But this is a factor in all of this.

The boy’s mother was at work when the mauling occured.  He was being watched by a relative who let him get out of their sight.  The boy got into the neighbor’s yard where the animal Mickey lives.  Not only was the young boy in the wrong place, but then he picked up the dog’s bone.

Have you ever owned dogs?  I have for most of my life.  My experience is that when a stranger enters into the dog’s territory even mild mannered breeds can become quite agressive.

Then take something that belongs to them?  Holy batsh**, Batman! 

So the young boy got away from the babysitter, entered into the yard where the pitbull lives and took the dog’s bone after which the dog goes psycho on the boy ripping his face off.

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Those Hysterical Historical Idiots of the “Me Too!” Media

I’m sick of them…so please cease and desist sending me any more emails that liken the current situation in Ukraine to the 1914 period in Kaiser Germany.  It’s the wrong analogy and it’s one of those neocon mind-trips attempting to reframe how you view history.

And it’s just plain wrong.

The more correct analogy in history is the pre WW II Anschluss and how that rolled out.  Let me run through Wikipedia snips (for the high level view) and maybe you’ll follow what’s going to come next.

We start with Lebensraum (living room or elbow space).

Lebensraum About this sound listen (help·info) (German for “habitat” or literally “living space“) was an important component of Nazi ideology in Germany. The Nazis supported territorial expansionism to gain Lebensraum as being a law of nature for all healthy and vigorous peoples of superior races to displace people of inferior races; especially if the people of a superior race were facing overpopulation in their given territories.[1] The German Nazi Party claimed that Germany inevitably needed to territorially expand because it was facing an overpopulation crisis within its Treaty of Versailles-designed boundaries that Adolf Hitler described: “We are overpopulated and cannot feed ourselves from our own resources”.[1] Thus expansion was justified as an inevitable necessity for Germany to pursue in order to end the country’s overpopulation within existing confined territory, and provide resources necessary to its people’s well-being.[1] The idea of a Germanic people without sufficient space dates back to long before Adolf Hitler brought it to prominence.

Point:  What organization in modern-day Europe is in a massive expansionist mode and has declared a territorial (trade to begin with) imperative spanning from Lisbon to Vladivostok?

Answer:  Why, the EU, of course.

Counterpoint: And months later, Russia responds.

Next, we move on to the German election and referendum, 1938:

Parliamentary elections were held in Germany (including recently annexed Austria) on 10 April 1938.[1] They were the final elections to the Reichstag during Nazi rule and took the form of a single-question referendum asking whether voters approved of a single list of Nazis and pro-Nazi “guest” candidates for the 813-member Reichstag as well as the recent annexation of Austria (the Anschluss). Turnout in the election was officially 99.5% with 98.9% voting “yes”.[1] In Austria official figures claimed 99.73% voted in favour with a turnout of 99.71%.

And while Crimea voted to side with Russia in this weekend’s elections, it’s a virtual certainty that a similarly polarized outcome will be assured when Ukraine votes in presidential elections.

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Coping: What the Frack?

Reader Konrad, up in Ohio asked a pretty good question since our focus is on economic trends (and how to make a buck now and then).

I live in the Canton OH area and the local powers to be are in love with fracking.  It will create hundreds of thousands of high paying jobs forever, wean us off of foreign oil , whiten our teeth, etc.  Yet there is never a word about depletion rates or the capital cost of drilling.  I would like your thoughts on why supposedly college educated individuals, when looking at any topic such as taxes, fracking, the Federal budget, etc. refuse to look at any facts, or even read or try to understand the other sides views.  I know what George Carlin said about the real owners of this country not wanting a society of critical thinkers, but I am interested in your thoughts of how to change this unwillingness to think at all.

I have to admit to being guided by the data I get from the US Energy Information Administration and from my buddy Oilman2 who, if you remember, is a real honest-to-God rig engineer who’s “playground” ranges from China to the Andes when he’s making drill bits, and our 200 miles into the Gulf when he’s got pipe down.  When he doesn’t, he’s building a bugout farm 30-miles south of us in the East Texas Outback.

The Big Big Picture

The US/World has been in a major sideways move economically for a couple of years.  And this is a good thing (in a paradoxical way) because it keeps down energy demand.

At the same time, there has been a lot of new resource coming on line and yes, Keystone is coming but the US still needs foreign oil and so there’s something of a “bait and switch” in media.  While most eyes have been on Ukraine, the really key US interest has been Venezuela.  Mexico and Venezuela are still mighty damn important.

When you zoom out (to the 50-year level) of the data, what you see is pretty convincing evidence that the long-foretold “Peak Oil” is really in play, and it is only a combination of low interest loans and other factors, that have resulted in a short-term spurt in supply.

That will all likely change over the next five years, or so.  The reason is that as borrowing costs go up (rig time ain’t cheap) the cost of putting in new holes is high and going higher.

Aggravating this is a lack of good “worms.”  Those are the new kids on the rigs.  Much of the “old timer” knowledge (OM2 is 50ish) is being lost and there aren’t a lot of sharp, young, hard working kids out there.

In fact, I’ve heard stories (during the West Texas spurt that may have peaked a year or two back as the west-of-the-Permian Basin was redrilled and updated) that CDL (truck) license holders were being fished out of rehab and anywhere else they could be found to supply labor.  And yes, there’s some good talent for oil field work coming in from Mexico, too.  Drillers do a generally good job of getting documented-only workers.

What Fracking Does

The good news about fracking is that is really does provide a short-term blip in the supply picture. And that’s why people in the business expect something of a rounding “shark’s tooth price pattern” in the coming five years, or so.

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Crimea Votes Out of Ukraine

Russian television has been reporting that the voter turnout in Crimea was on the order of 80% and exit polling (released after the polls closed) showed about 92% were voting to remain affiliated with Russia and cut ties with the  Ukraine upstart government.  The Western media seems a little late to the party on this one…but don’t be surprised.

One talk show cited the West paying the radicals in Kiev $50 a day for their part in the uprising.  And a Ukraine radical right group is calling for blowing up gas pipelines to Europe.  Which would no doubt be blamed on the Russians…damn this is getting complicated. 

And then to add some hot sauce to the mix, the Crimean defense forces have reportedly turned back a group of Ukrainian tanks and armor which was headed for where?

The Russian border.

Oh….and one Russian reporter stood in front of a Russian tank in Crimea and explained it hasn’t moved since WW II – it was a monument.  Only Russian tank to be found, but look for it on the western teevee without that lil footnote.

Getting a lot of criticism in Russian talk shows?  Victoria Nuland of the State Department who was passing out cookies to the Ukraine takeover folks back in December.  You may remember her from the Benghazi case and her close relationship to the US neocons, a relationship that goes back to the Bush/Cheney era.

This Wikipedia extract may be of interest:

Nuland’s husband is historian Robert Kagan, Council on Foreign Relations member, and co-founders of the think-tank “Project for the New American Century” (PNAC). The PNAC called for, among other things, regime change in Iraq and a strategy for securing global control.

…and we know how well that and Egypt and all the rest has worked out, eh?

For a country which supported elections in Kosovo, it’s sure interesting that when the shoe is on the other foot for the US now…how the US administration is terribly outspoken in its criticism of the election in Ukraine. 

No doubt, similar outrage will come when Syria holds elections, as well. OMG how could they vote for anyone but a properly corporate-backed government?  Why democracy is darned near unreliable, by the look of it.

Still, one war’s as good as another, eh?  If not Syria, let’s find somewhere else…some other distraction from the troubles at home and a stock market which (on an inflation adjusted basis) has gone nowhere for 14-years.

That’s how it rolls… for now.   Ratings and money…could it all be so simple?

There are (amazingly to most ‘Mericans)  media outside the corp/MSM fold, and China’s Xinhua notes that the UN Security Council has tossed out a western press for a Ukraine resolution.

You’re surely not surprised, are you?    Who knows:  maybe the UN wants a government that comes to power through  elections, like the last one, you think?  Not cookies and tweets and payments.

As I’ve been telling you for weeks (as the world has gotten wrapped around the axle) on this:  In 1962 President Kennedy went to the brink of global war when the Soviets put missiles in Cuba 90 miles off our shore.

To think that Vlad Putin wouldn’t “go the distance” to maintain his sphere of interest and only warm water port is the height of arrogance in the face of history. 

Since there are still Bush-era vestiges at State who are promoting war, they might want to talk with the Nobel Peace Prize holder to see what his feelings are, rather than letting John M cCain drive us toward war.  There’s a reason he didn’t get to the White House.

The “offishul” vote counting will take a while, so we shall watch.  But the West has about fired its biggest vocabulary shells at the problem and Russian resolve is similar to Kennedy’s back in ’62.

That part of history hasn’t been rewritten by the neocons…but give ‘em  time, they’ll try to recast that, too.  The same people that got us into Iraq, as I read it..  Like the old Yellow Pages ads, they never stop selling

I’m so old that I remember when we were promised CHANGE from the Bushistas…don’t hear much about that lately, though, do you.

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The Sunday Strategic: Nuke for Tat / PGS

In Saturday’s www.peoplenomics.com report, I laid out a possible economic “replay” based on a market period in previous years.  A beginning decline in the coming week would set the stage toward our projected market low in mid-summer, should events continue to harmonize with our past market period.  The projection is based on our Peoplenomics Trading Model’s Oscillator showing the same type of formation.

All of which doesn’t matter (unless you happen to have an IRA, 401k, or are simply trying to save a bit of money) since the Big Distractions are in play.

Which gets us to mentioning that there is some critical reading that should be considered for your reading list this week, or next.

I’d recommend beginning with the Federation of American Scientists website reprint of an April 2013 Congressional Research Service Report titled:

Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues

At the core of the PGS concept is that older-generation intercontinental (and medium range) missiles were primarily a “nuclear only” option. 

Unfortunately, this merely continued the previous MAD (mutually assured destruction) policy.

Under Prompt Global Strike (PGS):

Many analysts believe that the United States should use long-range ballistic missiles with conventional warheads for the PGS mission. These would not substitute for nuclear weapons in the U.S. war plan but would provide a “niche” capability, with a small number of weapons directed against select, critical targets.

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Peoplenomics: Notes on Psych-Econometric Modeling

I’ve spent a troubling amount of time trying to understand why more work hasn’t been spent in an area that I call “psycho-econometric modeling.” In order to understand the problem, we will get into a high-level discussion of the various types of econometric models and then we’ll give a brief discussion of how the psycho-social goals of national “leaders” (worldwide, not just here) can be seen as inadequately addressed in most conventional models. Of course, such a heady problem requires much caffeine…and so while we drink a couple of cup to gear up the brain cells, we’ll gnosh on some headlines. Including Bill Gates hinting at job collapse, a familiar view around here.

Advisory

The www.backdoorsurvival.com site is back up. G